PredictionStrike presents a novel take on daily fantasy sports. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, they provide a stock market like offering where player values increase and decrease daily based on player performance. The stock or share prices are tied to projections, so you are looking to beat the projections with your players on a daily (or game by game) basis. There is a high degree of risk associated with their offering. If your player does not meet projections, they will lose a percentage of their share value. It is difficult to profit off of players that do not meet projections, though not impossible since some players will rise in value before even hitting the court. However, in general, you are only trying to identify players who will exceed their projection for their upcoming game.
Getting started
Getting started after setting up your PredictionStrike account and making your first deposit can be a daunting task. There are hundreds of players to choose from, and not all players are feasible, as some may not be within your price range. Player prices can range from six cents to over $50 dollars. After trading on the platform for more than two weeks, there are some basic strategy concepts that became apparent aside from the obvious buy low, sell high axiom.
Identifying values
Identifying values is tricky, as projections are set high enough that they will not be forced to lose money on a daily basis. This means you need to find players that will not only have good games that are above their average but games that considerably beat their averages (or recent averages). Star players can return some value, but it is generally the role players i.e. the third options onward, who will provide a noticeable return. A value is any player who will beat their projection. With that being said, they need to be within your budget.
Looking for players who fit your budget
Looking for players who fit your budget is just as important as identifying values. Jayson Tatum was a terrific projection-based value for weeks during the period I have been using this platform, but his share price was over $30 per share (which was my entire initial budget). He was on a tear, but unless one was willing to drop enough money into their account to own multiple shares, he was priced out of consideration. At the time of writing, his share value spiked all the way to where it currently sits at $52.64.
Analyzing recent transactions list
When I first started out, I had no clue how to find values who fit my budget. I started by looking at the recent transactions list to see if there were any hints as to which players may present strong values. Unfortunately, this list was not of much help in identifying true values. However, what the sell list can do is help in identifying players who may have seen enough of a value change to warrant being sold.
Penny stocks
One strategy to get yourself familiarized with PredictionStrike’s platform, much like with the actual stock market, is to first get your feet wet with penny stocks. In the context of PredictionStrike DFS, penny stocks are player shares that cost $1.00 or less, as there are no actual one cent players. One quick way to identify potential penny stock values is to use the sort function in the main lobby. The main lobby has a tab for best transactions, worst transactions, as well as the recent transactions mentioned above.
Beating Projections
In order to beat what are often unfavorable fantasy point projections, research and a daily focus on game day inactives is necessary. Yes, you can ride with stars like Jayson Tatum if you are willing to deposit $100 for three shares, but for the average DFS player who wants to test out the platform, that may not be an option. This makes identifying players who will have a big game(s) that particular day or week a priority. After some trial and error, it became apparent that the best way to do this is to buy shares of players who are set to beat their projection due to either taking the next step in their development (the Jayson Tatum, Coby White, or Norman Powell’s) or to find the players who will outperform their projection due to increased minutes, whether it be due to injuries, illness, role change, or tank mode (in the coming weeks).
Service Fee
Understanding the service fee and doing the math is key. The service fee is 1.5% per transaction. It is important to record your share purchase price, overall purchase price, service fee, and total. To illustrate the importance of this consider this example: I purchased shares of Tim Hardaway for a one-game dalliance, as Kristaps Prozingis was set to sit out to get rest in a back to back. Hardaway beat his projection, but due to a slow first half, he only beat the projection by a little. As a result, his share value increased by three percent. I declined to do the math before selling, as I already knew that I did not want Hardaway shares when Kristaps returned for the following contest. I immediately sold his shares the next morning thinking I made a small profit. However, when I reviewed my confirmation emails I became aware that I had purchased and sold him for the exact same price when the service fee was factored in.
Overall thoughts
PredictionStrike is an interesting DFS platform that can produce steady profits with a little luck and a lot of research. You have to be willing to take a hit. Players are inevitably going to have bad games and miss their projections. The key is to try to minimize exposure to bad contests while maximizing exposure to the good ones. This means sometimes being willing to sell for a lower share price than you may have paid to prevent the bleeding from continuing (missed projections mounting and further decreasing share price). Researching opponents, key stats, and recent player trends help with this. One thing to note is that PredictionStrike is less risky than what you are likely used to because it isn’t an all or nothing contest/wager.
The ideal scenario is to find a few players you are confident in having a strong string of games and riding with their ups and downs as far as matching or exceeding projections. Projections are posted the day of the players’ next game, so you will need to make time to monitor projections to make sure they do not become too unfavorable.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
