We went over players who are most helped by the MLB delay already, so now it’s time to go over which players are negatively impacted by all this business.
The delay is not a zero-sum game for fantasy value. For example, the boost for Aaron Judge does not really come at the expense of anybody else. I don’t think anybody was overly interested in Brett Gardner or Mike Tauchman. Naturally, the delay is benefitting many more players than it’s hurting, but we should never stop searching for the edge.
Here are some situations where players may be worth less with the shortened season.
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Innings Eaters
The reliable 190+ innings guy is not worth as much in a shortened season. Fewer games mean fewer innings, and fewer innings mean fewer pitcher injuries. We are probably looking at the league leader in innings pitched this year coming in under 170, a much easier number to reach. Here is a table that breaks down what you look for in a pitcher, given how many games are on the schedule.
Prior to the news, there were a limited number of pitchers you could reasonably see leading the league in innings pitched, but not it could be almost anyone.
You want to focus a little heavier on quality innings over quantity this year. Here are some guys I am slightly downgrading.
Trevor Bauer (SP – CIN)
I highly recommend reading Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchick’s “The MVP Machine” book while you are cooped up in your house this month. Sparing you the synopsis, it goes into detail about how Bauer’s abnormal routines have made him a bit of an iron man. He has said he wants to pitch every fourth day, and I believe he can do it.
All of that said, Bauer has posted pretty undesirable ratios over the last two seasons, so he loses a good chunk of value if you cannot rely on him to lap the field in volume.
Zack Greinke (SP – HOU)
Greinke has cleared 200 innings in each of his last three seasons, making him one of the safest pitchers to draft. You could look past the below-average strikeout rate knowing that he will likely be in your lineup all season long, but that’s a little tougher to do now. While there is no real reason to not expect great ERA and WHIP ratios from him this year, he is less safe by virtue of everybody else being safer.
Madison Bumgarner (SP – ARI)
While MadBum has missed his share of time in his career, none of it has been to do with his throwing arm (the infamous dirt bike injury cost him time in 2017, and a fractured hand got him in 2018). He pitched a full season last year and was one of the better bets for 200+ innings this year. No longer the ace he used to be, MadBum was terrible on the road last year and posted a 3.90 ERA for the year while striking out 8.8 batters per nine. He is not an ace by many standards, so I am moving him down my draft board since the season will be shorter.
Suspended Players
Domingo German (SP – NYY)
An 81 game suspension used to be half the season, but now it is more like 60-70%. He was interesting enough to stash in a league with huge benches or a spot to handle suspended players, but now there is really no need to even bother.
Michael Pineda (SP – MIN)
He only has 39 games left to serve, but the math still works the same way. He will lose a bigger chunk of the season than originally thought.
Would-Be Injury Replacements
Jordan Montgomery (SP – NYY)
The injury to James Paxton gave Montgomery an almost sure spot in the Yankees rotation to start the year, but now that’s a bit more in flux. With Severino being out for the year and Domingo German suspended, Montgomery still has a good shot at the rotation. However, there is one fewer spot available if Paxton does indeed start the season on the active roster.
Mike Tauchman (OF – NYY)
Okay, so I insulted him earlier. I’m sorry man. The truth is, Tauchman hit 13 homers and posted a .361 on-base percentage in 2019, so there was some draft appeal if he was going to have to play every day in March/April. That is probably out the window now with Judge and Stanton looking like good bets to be on the field come Opening Day.
Scott Kingery (2B, 3B, SS, OF – PHI)
While Kingery’s versatility should still result in a bunch of plate appearances in 2020, he may get fewer to start the year with Andrew McCutchen being given time to get healthy. I wouldn’t knock Kingery down too far, but a few slots seem fair.
Service Time Changes
Spoiler alert: this is a copy-paste from my last post
We don’t have any news from the league on how they will adjust service time, but there are two options. You can read the MLB service time definition here. Either they leave the service time rules in place (stating that a player must be on a major league roster for 172 days to earn a full season of service time), or they change the number to fit the new season length.
If they would leave that number the same, chances are no player will actually accrue a year of service time, given there won’t be 172 days on the schedule. This would potentially be good news for teams that have prospects on their roster. For example, there would be less of a reason for the White Sox to hold down Nick Madrigal, because they will get that extra year of contractual control on him either way.
If they would change the number, things remain the same, and teams will have no added incentive to bring their prospects up right away. You will have to keep an ear to the ground on what they decide on this because it could bolster some prospect value.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.