Opening Day has been postponed, but that doesn’t mean your draft preparation should end. Although there won’t be any takeaways from spring training over the next two weeks as expected, there is still plenty to think about.
That includes the various fantasy X-Factors for each of the 30 MLB Teams. X-Factors are players with a wide range of outcomes – those who could easily be a significant contributor and difference-maker in fantasy leagues, or be a total bust. The X-Factors might not only themselves have a huge impact on your fantasy team if you draft them, but also affect the fantasy value of other players.
We’ve already discussed the American League X-Factors here. So today, it’s time to see which Senior Circuit player might make or break your fantasy team. Here are your National League X-Factors.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
Marte is one of the tougher players to evaluate, because his gains were SO dramatic last year. He suddenly went from being a career .263 hitter with 22 home runs in 1,548 plate appearances to batting .329 with 32 home runs in 628 plate appearances.
Marte made plenty of gains in his batted ball data last year, including a significant increase in his launch angle. But his expected batting average was much lower than his actual batting average, and he pulled all but one of his home runs, which suggests that pitchers should find a way to exploit his approach in 2020.
If he does manage to repeat or come close to last year’s stats, then he’ll not only out-earn his consensus average draft position of 43, but he’ll also increase the fantasy outlooks of both Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar. If he regresses, then he and other Diamondbacks are far less appealing for fantasy purposes.
Atlanta Braves
Foltynewicz, and really any starting pitcher, is not going to have a significant fantasy impact on other players on his team. Sure, perhaps a successful season could mean a few more save opportunities for a closer. But, in the end, Foltynewicz is the Braves’ X-Factor because he has an incredibly wide range of outcomes.
Foltynewicz was on nearly everyone’s bust list in 2019, as an uncharacteristic drop in his home run rate and BABIP allowed, along with a significantly higher xFIP than his ERA, suggested that his massive gains were likely based somewhat on luck. And when he got off to an awful start in his return from injury last year, it seemed those predictions would turn out to be correct.
But Foltynewicz really turned things on in the latter half of the season, pitching to a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP after the All-Star break. A big part of his success was that his slider improved to closer to 2018 levels as the season wore on. In September, when Foltynewicz pitched to a mere 1.50 ERA and 0.70 WHIP, batters hit just .125 (.129 xBA) with a .250 slugging percentage (.211 xSLG) and a .171 wOBA against his slider.
A month is a small sample size, of course. But given that Foltynewicz was coming off an injury and relied so heavily on his strong slider during his successful 2018 campaign, he could be a significant fantasy asset if September is any indication.
Chicago Cubs
Davish’s 2019 season was one of the more remarkable baseball phenomena in recent memory. After a 2018 season in which he made just eight starts before triceps and elbow injuries ended his season, Darvish got off to a terrible start in 2019. He had a 14.9% walk rate through early June, his first 13 starts, and was justifiably dropped in many leagues.
And then, like a switch, Darvish changed. Over his remaining 106 1/3 innings, he walked 13 batters total. A 2.9% walk rate. Elite ratios. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half of the season.
Thankfully, there was a tangible change that fantasy owners can look at to explain the improvement. Darvish not only started incorporating a split finger fastball into his repertoire, but he essentially ditched his slider, against which batters had consistent success. After throwing it 19% of the time in his first 13 starts, he dropped it to just over 10% in his remaining starts, relying more on his cutter.
So can fantasy owners simply assume that the second-half Darvish is the one they’ll see in 2020? As the 20th starting pitcher off the board, they appear to be doing so. Thus, Darvish’s success or failure will likely make or break plenty of fantasy seasons.
Cincinnati Reds
The mercurial Bauer is a bit of a fantasy enigma. He has a brilliant pitching mind, is devoted to his craft, and throws more pitches than any other starting pitcher in the game.
And yet, other than his sterling 2018 season, Bauer has never been a fantasy asset. A mid-season trade to the National League last year, generally a positive development for a pitcher, destroyed his value, as he pitched to a 6.39 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 56 1/3 innings during his time with the Reds.
So which Bauer will we see in 2020? Is it the one who allowed 0.46 HR/9 and a .260 wOBA to opposing batters in 2018? Or the pitcher against whose fastball batters slugged .576 last year?
As with Darvish, fantasy owners are willing to pay to find out. Bauer is being drafted as the 22nd starting pitcher off the board, meaning he is being taken as one of the building blocks of a fantasy staff. Whether he’ll earn that price is one of the bigger questions heading into the 2020 season.
Colorado Rockies
To be clear, it’s not a guarantee that Hilliard even makes the Rockies’ Opening Day Roster. And, if he does, it’s far from clear that he’ll be the everyday left fielder. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia, and Garrett Hampson all remain in the mix.
But if he is given anywhere close to everyday at-bats, he has the chance to be one of the best power-speed combinations in the game. And with an average draft position of 388, he’s essentially free.
Here are Hilliard’s home run and steals totals, respectively, from the last four years:
- 2016: 17, 30 (Single-A)
- 2017: 21, 37 (High-A)
- 2018: 9, 23 (Double-A)
- 2019 – 42, 24 (Triple-A and Majors combined)
Yes, he just turned 26 years old so he’s a bit of a late bloomer, but it’s impossible to deny his power-speed combination. In Colorado’s thin air, he’d almost certainly be a strong starting option in every fantasy format if he can win the everyday left fielder’s job. And he’d lengthen the Rockies’ lineup significantly. Or be a bench piece who gets only an occasional start. One or the other.
Los Angeles Dodgers
There are plenty of potential X-Factors for the Dodgers, including Corey Seager and Kenley Jansen, but none bigger than the 23-year-old Urias. Urias, as expected since the end of last season, has a spot in the Dodgers’ rotation locked down.
Without question, Urias’ innings will be limited this season. He’s thrown just 54 2/3, 15 2/3, and 81 2/3 innings over the last three seasons, respectively, so expecting anything more than 130 innings this year would be overly optimistic.
But, as Chris Paddack showed last year, a young starter can have an enormous impact despite a strict innings limit. And Urias has the tools to be a difference-marker. Armed with a fastball that hits 95 miles per hour and a scintillating changeup, Urias has two plus-pitches that can get any big-leaguer out. Although his slider and curveball are still developing, if he takes the next step with either, he could be a dominant force.
But remember that Urias has made just 13 starts in the majors over the last three seasons, and has dealt with various injuries over that time. He could be Paddack 2.0. Or he could need more time to develop his full arsenal. Time will tell.
Miami Marlins
What to make of Villar? He followed his breakout 19-homer, 62-steal season in 2016 with an 11-homer, 23-steal disappointment the following year. Since then, he has rebounded with 38 home runs and 75 steals with a passable batting average the past two years.
And yet, the Orioles couldn’t give him away this offseason, and he now finds himself batting atop a weak lineup in Miami. Not only will he switch from an extremely hitter-friendly home park to the polar opposite, he’ll also be a veteran playing on a rebuilding team, potentially losing playing time as the season goes along.
Expecting Villar to continue to drastically outperform his expected slugging percentage, as he has done every year of his career, would be foolhardy considering his change in home park. And if he falters, then not only will one of the premier stolen base threats be neutralized, but the rest of the fantasy-relevant players on the Marlins (admittedly, not many) will take a downturn.
Milwaukee Brewers
Garcia isn’t the flashiest player, but he’s quietly shown that he can be an impact hitter if he falls into the right opportunity. Garcia had a breakout 2017 with the White Sox, during which he batted .330 with an .886 OPS.
He struggled the following year (though much of that was bad luck when you look at his expected statistics) and then found himself as a deep-league option in 2019 with the Rays.
The thing is, Garcia has quietly seen changes to his batted ball profile that portend good things for his future. Beginning in 2018, he increased his launch angle by two degrees, increased his barrel rate by three percentage points, and increased his hard-hit rate by 1.5%.
And although those changes did not manifest themselves in Garcia’s counting stats, when you prorate his numbers over full seasons, Garcia has averaged 28 home runs, 80 runs scored, and 90 RBI over the past two seasons. Those are more than serviceable numbers for a fantasy outfielder.
And now he has moved to Miller Park, which is far more favorable to right-handed hitters than Tropicana Field, where he played last year. In other words, a 30-homer, 100-RBI season is strongly within the realm of possibility.
And yet, Garcia’s playing time is far from assured. With Ryan Braun still on the Brewers’ roster (and productive), it is unlikely that Garcia gets a full workload in right field. And if he gets off to a slow start, his playing time could drop significantly.
Garcia is an excellent late-round sleeper, who could easily be an important cog to championship teams. Or he may be waiver-wire fodder a few weeks into the season.
New York Mets
No reliever epitomized the “wait on closer” strategy quite like Diaz last year. After posting one of the most dominant seasons for a reliever in recent memory in 2018, Diaz had a disastrous 2019 campaign with the Mets, pitching to a 5.59 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP while losing his closer’s role.
The obvious culprit was Diaz’s slider, which went from allowing a .129 batting average, .234 slugging percentage, and .190 wOBA against in 2018, to a .297 batting average, .403 slugging percentage, and .387 wOBA against last year. Diaz went from a home run rate of 0.61/9 in 2018 to 2.33/9 in 2019.
But even after the addition of Dellin Betances and with Seth Lugo still waiting in the wings, Diaz will begin the year as the Mets’ closer. And considering the volatility of relief pitching generally, and the new Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, he could easily turn back into a dominant relief pitcher.
Or he could be out of a job by May. One or the other. Either way, Diaz’s average draft position (118th overall, 12th reliever), will likely either be a steal or a wasted pick.
Philadelphia Phillies
Hoskins’ batting average has declined from .259 in 2017, to .246 in 2018, to .226 last year. Similarly on a three-year decline are Hoskins’ slugging percentage, home runs, wOBA, wRC+, and HR/FB rate.
With everything trending in the wrong direction, fantasy owners are justifiably concerned. But there is some reason for optimism.
Putting aside Hoskins’ elite walk rate that should keep his runs scored at a high level, his season wasn’t nearly as bad before he was hit by a pitch on his hand on August 14th.
Prior to that, in 120 games (so about 3/4 of the season), Hoskins had hit 24 home runs, and was slashing .241/.381/.485. After that date, he hit just five home runs, slashing .182/.312/.364.
Hoskins is entering his age-27 season, so there’s still room for growth. But even if not, he’s likely much closer to the hitter who slugged 36 home runs and had an .850 OPS in 2018 than the one whose numbers were skewed by his hand injury last year.
If he is, then at pick 105 in average draft position, he’ll be a bargain. But if his three-year decline turns into a four-year decline, he’ll be only borderline rosterable.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Keller followed up an impressive showing in Triple-A with an extremely disappointing 11-start debut with the Pirates in the majors. Disappointing probably isn’t sufficient to describe a 1-5 record, a .392 wOBA against, a 7.13 ERA, and a 1.83 WHIP. So, let’s call it disastrous.
But the strikeouts (65 in 48 innings pitched) were certainly there, and his FIP (3.19) and xFIP (3.47) were nearly FOUR runs lower than his ERA.
Keller’s raw stuff is excellent. He threw his curveball and slider roughly 37% of the time and allowed just a .210 wOBA combined against those pitches. And his fastball averaged 95.4 miles per hour last year in the majors.
But despite its velocity, batters simply teed off on Keller’s heater last year. Against Keller’s fastball, hitters had a .461 batting average, a .719 slugging percentage, and a .505 wOBA.
But all of those numbers were significantly higher than their expected corollaries. And considering that the Pirates have finally moved on from Ray Searage and are taking a more analytical approach to pitching with their coaching staff, Keller could take a significant leap this year.
If he does, then for all the talk of the lack of reliable pitching, Keller would be a game-changer at pick 316.
San Diego Padres
How does a pitcher with a career 4.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP become a popular sleeper who is drafted as a top-40 starter?
Lamet is a popular pick this year after his 73-inning return from Tommy John surgery went well. His 33.5% strikeout rate ranked in the top seven percent of the league, and his 3.44 xFIP was 22nd-best in the majors.
But Lamet is really a two-pitch pitcher, which makes it difficult to succeed as a starter. And while his breaking ball (either a slider or a curveball, depending on how it is characterized) is exceptional (.117 batting average against and .200 wOBA against last year), his fastball does not get the job done. Despite sitting at nearly 96 miles per hour, Lamet’s fastball allowed a .323 batting average, .624 slugging percentage, and .419 wOBA against last season.
So, Lamet is 27 years old with an elite strikeout rate who is being drafted as a third or fourth starter. He’s also a two-pitch pitcher with a likely innings cap and mediocre career ratios.
If he does break out and improves his fastball, he’ll likely be an integral part of championship-winning rosters. Or, he could be just a mediocre innings-eater who provides strikeouts and whose production you could likely get five or six rounds later.
San Francisco Giants
Admittedly, Gausman is more like a lower-case x-Factor, but the Giants don’t offer all that much excitement, so we play the cards we are dealt. After turning into a reliever with the Reds in the second half of the 2019 season, Gausman will return to a starting role with the Giants.
Gausman has always felt like he was on the cusp of turning into a reliable fantasy starter, but could never get over the hump. Despite pitching in Baltimore in an incredibly hitter-friendly venue and in a division with strong offenses, Gausman has pitched to a career 4.30 ERA, hardly embarrassing.
Still, why would a 29-year-old pitcher with mediocre career numbers joining a likely last-place team be an X-Factor? Well, Gausman quietly made some major gains last year.
For example, Gausman had both the highest swinging strike rate (14.8%) and strikeout percentage (25.5%) of his career, and although those numbers may be slightly inflated because of his time as a reliever with the Reds, his numbers as a starter with the Braves in the first half of the season were also career-highs. He also kept his HR/9 rate consistent with his career mark and below league average last year despite the rise across MLB.
Gausman’s success can be attributed to his massive increase in the use of his split finger fastball. It is an elite pitch, such that if you combined the worst results of any individual season of his career, batters would have hit .233 with a .306 wOBA against the pitch.
In 2018, Gausman upped his splitter usage from roughly 21% in his career to 27..2%. But in 2019, he increased the usage of that pitch to a whopping 41.1%! This increased use of his splitter is almost certainly the reason for Gausman’s increased strikeouts, especially because he set a career high in O-Swing% at 37.8%.
If Gausman continues to throw his splitter 40% of the time this year, then he’ll surely have success as a starter considering his home park. But, if he returns to his prior usage, it will likely be the same old Gausman once again.
St. Louis Cardinals
Martinez has been a bit of a fantasy roller coaster over the last few seasons. After a three-year stretch during which he was a reliable starter, a shoulder injury derailed his 2018 season and pushed him to relief work. After attempting to return as a starter the following year, weakness in his shoulder kept him in the bullpen, where he eventually became a reliable closer and totaled 24 saves.
He entered the 2020 season with an uncertain role. The Cardinals lack depth in their rotation and, health permitting, would like to see Martinez return to being a starter. But shoulder injuries are tricky and, at any moment, the Cardinals could determine that Martinez is not up to the challenge, returning him to the closer’s role.
Solid starter? Reliable relief option? A little of both? It’s impossible to know what we’ll see from Martinez. He has made three starts this spring totaling 13 innings, so for now, he remains on track to be the Cardinals’ second starter. Whether he remains there is anyone’s guess.
Washington Nationals
Robles provided plenty of fantasy value last year with 17 home runs and 28 steals. But man, there were some ugly underlying metrics.
Robles had a hard hit rate of just 23%, which was in the bottom four percent of the league. His average exit velocity of 81 miles per hour ranked 249th in the league, just ahead of Billy Hamilton and behind such notable sluggers as Jarrod Dyson and Dee Gordon. His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were well below their actual numbers.
But speed is scarce in today’s game, and Robles’ 28 steals ranked ninth in MLB last season. And early word out of camp was that Robles was likely to bat leadoff this season. Thus, Robles was being selected as the 82nd player off the board in average draft position.
And yet this week, Davey Martinez changed course, saying that Trea Turner, not Robles, was most likely going to bat atop the Nationals’ lineup. That would likely move Robles to the back end of the lineup, greatly reducing his runs scored potential. And although it’s a small sample size, Robles has just one hit this spring training.
Robles batting atop the lineup would greatly enhance his fantasy value, and a strong season would positively impact the rest of the Nationals lineup. But if he again fails to make hard contact routinely, particularly with the potential change in baseballs to pre-2019 levels, it could be a long season for the youngster.
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Dan Harris is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
