On the first day of the “Legal Tampering Period” of NFL Free Agency, you may have missed one move that could be considered minor compared to the other moves that went down. The Cleveland Browns placed a second-round tender on Kareem Hunt, effectively eliminating the chance that Hunt will play for any other team in 2020. Any team that signs Hunt to an offer sheet would now need the Browns not match the offer and would surrender a second-round pick in the NFL Draft. Most NFL franchises will be loathed to part with a second-rounder for a position that is easily replaceable.
If Hunt does end up with another franchise, he’s immediately in the conversation as top-12 running back. But that’s unlikely, so instead, let’s look at the impact Hunt’s return to Cleveland will have.
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Kareem Hunt (RB)
If you roster Kareem Hunt in dynasty leagues, you’re probably not ecstatic at the thought of him back in Cleveland. Nick Chubb is entrenched as the starting running back there, and the other offensive weapons on the roster (Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper) all limit Hunt’s weekly production.
That said, Hunt was able to produce on a weekly basis last season in similar circumstances. Hunt scored no fewer than 11.8 fantasy points each of his first five games after returning from his eight-week suspension to start the year. Even though he was underused as a rusher, he was utilized as a receiving weapon and had at least four targets in six of his eight games, showing he still has value even without the requisite rushing work. But this was also with an injured Beckham Jr. and without Austin Hooper, who the Browns signed to a $44 million deal on Monday. Though it’s not as if Hunt will be battling Beckham Jr. for similar targets, Hooper will be more of a concern to Hunt’s target share.
In redraft leagues, taking Hunt late would be a wise move. He’ll hold some weekly streaming value if nothing changes, but he would be an immediate starter if anything were to happen to Hunt. In dynasty leagues, you would be wise to hold onto until next offseason unless someone in your league is willing to give you a top-eight rookie pick (not likely).
Nick Chubb (RB)
Chubb played eight games with Kareem Hunt active last season. His four worst fantasy performances of the season all came within that stretch: in Weeks 11, 13, 16, and 17, Chubb averaged 6.95 fantasy points per game. It’s entirely possible that Chubb’s poor performance during those weeks had more to do with play-calling and game script than Hunt, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Hunt averaged 11 fantasy points per game in those four weeks. Using DLF’s Player Splits App reveals the contrast in Chubb’s production with and without Hunt playing.
Chubb’s per-game averages saw a decrease in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving yards. Most importantly to you, the fantasy football player, his fantasy scoring dropped by 6.71 fantasy points per game. That’s a giant drop in scoring, enough so that Chubb’s was on pace to be the RB6 without Hunt and paced out as the RB14 in games with Hunt.
This is the part where I mention that eight games constitute an incredibly small sample size. There is also a new head coach (Kevin Stefanski) and offensive coordinator (Alex Van Pelt) in Cleveland this year, so maybe they’ll find a way to ensure that Chubb still gets his even while utilizing Hunt. Chubb has shown to be a transcendent talent, but he’s a player I’ll be fading in redraft leagues in 2020 unless he drops to the third-round or later. In dynasty leagues, Chubb is still a strong buy, but I’ll need his price to drop before I pay up for him.
The Receivers
Jarvis Landry has been and will continue to be a target hog until the day he retires. Over the past five seasons, he’s had no less than 138 targets in a single season. Even if he sees a slight dip in looks, it’s hard to imagine that he sees fewer than 120-130 targets in 2020. Despite battling injury and it being his first year in a new offense, Odell Beckham Jr. ranked 12th in wide receiver targets with 133, and his 25.6% target share also ranked 12th. The Hunt tender will have little to no impact on his production in the short or long term.
Austin Hooper would be the receiving option most directly impacted by Hunt’s return to Cleveland. Running backs and tight ends cannibalize each other’s targets, and it’s rare for an offense to have prolific producing receiving options at both positions. It’s even rarer considering the wide receivers on this specific roster. Hooper was just signed to an enormous contract, and Hunt is just a role-player for the Browns, so my hunch is that Hooper will be just fine.
The Quarterback
The rich get richer. By adding Hooper and retaining Hunt, it’s almost unfathomable that Baker Mayfield could underperform two seasons in a row. While some fantasy analysts may have been a year early in proclaiming him as the dynasty QB1 (okay, maybe just me), he might be able to pull it off in 202o. No other team in the league could withstand the loss of a Nick Chubb and roll out another running back who is just as good as him. But that’s the situation the Browns have placed themselves and Mayfield in.
Hunt is easily one of the best receiving backs in the league and provides a safety blanket for Mayfield anytime a play breaks down. If you weren’t buying Mayfield before Monday, it’s probably too late to now.
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Shane Manila is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneIsTheWorst.