We’ve been hearing about the possibility of Stefon Diggs getting traded, and it finally happened late Monday night when the Bills sent a 2020 first-round pick, fifth-round pick, sixth-round pick, and 2021 fourth-round pick to the Vikings in exchange for Diggs and a seventh-round pick. It’s a massive deal, and one that lands Diggs in Buffalo with a young quarterback.
UNDERAPPRECIATED AND UNDERUSED
Diggs may be one of the most underrated players in the game, as he’s continually done a lot with a little, seeing more than 112 targets just once with the Vikings over his five years there. Despite that, he’s finished as the WR21 or better in three straight seasons. Fun fact: He became just the ninth receiver to finish as a top-24 receiver with less than 95 targets in 2019.
He’s one of the best route-runners in the league who can get open at any level of the field, as indicated by his 10.0 yards per catch in 2018, and then 17.9 yards per catch in 2019. He finished with a career-high 12.0 yards per target in 2019, which ranked second to only A.J. Brown among receivers with 50-plus targets. Still, somehow, the Vikings gave Diggs double-digit targets just once all season. There were six games he saw five or less targets.
THE DEEP BALL
There’s a reputation tied to Josh Allen for his massive arm that can throw the ball a country mile, though there wasn’t any receiver to go down the field and get it. The Bills went out and got John Brown last year, who saw the 10th most targets (27) over 20 yards down the field, finishing with 10 receptions for 332 yards and four touchdowns on them.
Diggs himself saw 29 targets that traveled over 20 yards in the air in 2019, which ranked third in the NFL. His 16 receptions for 635 yards and six touchdowns on such passes all led the league. In case you didn’t know, Diggs scored all six of his touchdowns on passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air in 2019. Here’s a chart displaying the deep-ball passing of both Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen over the last two years:
| Player | Comp | Att | Comp % | Yds | TD | INT |
| Josh Allen | 36 | 131 | 27.5% | 1,169 | 11 | 10 |
| Kirk Cousins | 49 | 125 | 39.2% | 1,688 | 22 | 4 |
THE RUN-FIRST OFFENSE
We all know the Vikings were focused on getting their run-game going in 2019, which led to fewer targets for the receiving corps. The Vikings ran the ball on 48.3 percent of their plays last year, which ranked as the fourth-highest percentage. The Bills, however, aren’t far behind, as they ran the ball on 45.0 percent of their plays, which was the seventh-highest percentage. It’s a slight improvement from the Vikings, but that may have had to do with efficiency, as the Vikings offense averaged 5.7 yards per play, while the Bills offense averaged 5.2 yards.
The good news with the Bills and Allen is that 320-of-512 pass attempts went to the wide receivers. That amounts to a healthy 62.5 percent of targets, and that’s without Diggs on the team. Not many realize that both Cole Beasley and John Brown topped 100 targets in 2019, which is not something Diggs can say despite Adam Thielen being injured for much of the year.
2020 PROJECTION
There will be some who say that the move to the Bills presents a downgrade for Diggs in fantasy, but you shouldn’t be so sure. Diggs overcame a lot to be a top-24 receiver in 2019 and will now get more targets, even if they aren’t as accurate. Diggs creates big windows with his separation and could help increase Allen’s downfield accuracy a tad.
To those who think he’ll be too inconsistent, I’d point to the fact that John Brown posted WR3-type numbers 73.3 percent of the time in 2019, which ranked 11th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Cole Beasley posted WR3-type numbers 60.0 percent of the time, which ranked 26th. The issue is upside, as the Brown/Beasley combo posted WR1-type numbers just three times combined. Diggs is likely going to get a slight bump in targets, so even if his efficiency dips, he should still be a somewhat reliable WR2, though you shouldn’t be expecting a top-12 finish.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.