If there’s one thing that I know, it’s that dynasty owners overvalue talent. It’s weird even typing that because I believe in talent, but there’s something that’s much more important in the NFL. Opportunity. You need to get it or that talent will never come to life.

As of now, we don’t know who will get what opportunity, so all we have to go on is talent, right? Well, sort of. You have to look at a player objectively and figure out how he fits into the NFL, what he does well, and the likeliness that a team takes a shot on him in the early rounds. Like it or not, that matters.

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If there’s one piece of advice I have for those in dynasty leagues, it’s to hold your rookie drafts after the NFL Draft, as you don’t have the biggest part of the puzzle shown to you. Our friends over at Dynasty League Football host 10 mock drafts to get an early gauge on rookie ADP, and it’s led to these results. Let’s take a look at where you may find the best/worst values based on current perception.

FIRST ROUND

1. Jonathan Taylor (RB – Wisconsin)
2. D’Andre Swift (RB – Georgia)
3. J.K. Dobbins (RB – Ohio State)
4. Jerry Jeudy (WR – Alabama)
5. CeeDee Lamb (WR – Oklahoma)
6. Cam Akers (RB – Florida State)
7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – LSU)
8. Jalen Reagor (WR – TCU)
9. Tee Higgins (WR – Clemson)
10. Henry Ruggs (WR – Alabama)
11. Justin Jefferson (WR – LSU)
12. Laviska Shenault (WR – Colorado)

It’s pretty much clear as day that Jonathan Taylor will be going No. 1 overall in leagues that do their rookie draft before the actual NFL Draft. Of the 10 mock drafts that took place for this consensus, he went No. 1 overall in nine of them. Oddly enough, the only player who went in front of him was Jerry Jeudy, who didn’t go higher than No. 3 in any other draft.

For the sake of argument, lets pretend Taylor gets drafted into a timeshare while D’Andre Swift and/or Clyde Edwards-Helaire get drafted into a premier offense with 15-plus touches available, like the Falcons. Suddenly, he doesn’t look like the no-brainer No. 1 pick. The running back position is one where you must adjust to situation rather quickly.

At this time last year, wide receivers made up five of the top six picks in rookie drafts, though that changed once the NFL Draft took place. Most wide receivers will actually lose value after year one, as even receivers drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft average just 65.2 targets their rookie season. But with the way that ADP is sitting right now, there’s a good balance of running backs who’ll produce right now versus wide receivers who’ll produce for a longer period of time, even if they take a year or two to develop.

SECOND ROUND

13. Denzel Mims (WR – Baylor)
14. Joe Burrow (QB – LSU)
15. Zack Moss (RB – Utah)
16. A.J. Dillon (RB – Boston College)
17. Bryan Edwards (WR – South Carolina)
18. Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama)
19. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – Vanderbilt)
20. Brandon Aiyuk (WR – Arizona State)
21. Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – Michigan)
22. Tyler Johnson (WR – Minnesota)
23. Eno Benjamin (RB – Arizona State)
24. Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR – Liberty)

This is the area of drafts where fantasy owners must fight their urges to draft the players they liked talent-wise and start to overvalue those who landed in a great situation or were drafted inside the top three rounds. Historically, receivers drafted in Day 3 of the NFL Draft have a much lower rate of success. It’s not to say that they aren’t more talented than those who go ahead of them, but rather don’t get the opportunity because the team isn’t heavily invested in them.

It’s good to see Mims at the top of this round because there are whispers that he may even enter the late first-round conversation of the NFL Draft. That will certainly get him playing time right out of the gate. Zack Moss is someone I enjoyed watching his film when scouting running backs, but was his 4.7-second 40-yard dash enough to knock him into Day 3 of the draft?

Running backs is this range are lottery tickets and that’s about it. Here’s the list of running backs who were in the second- and third-round of rookie drafts last year: Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Justice Hill, Devin Singletary, Alexander Mattison, Benny Snell, Bryce Love, Rodney Anderson, Ryquell Armstead, and Darwin Thompson. The only one who produced last year was Singletary. Oddly enough, he may have had the worst NFL Combine of all them.

Some will smirk at two quarterbacks coming off the board by the middle of the second-round but I’m good with it. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are going to be on dynasty rosters for a long time which is not something many running backs and wide receivers in this range can say.

THIRD ROUND

25. Michael Pittman (WR – USC)
26. Justin Herbert (QB – Oregon)
27. Antonio Gibson (WR – Memphis)
28. KJ Hamler (WR – Penn State)
29. Chase Claypool (WR – Notre Dame)
30. Anthony McFarland (RB – Maryland)
31. Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – Missouri)
32. Jordan Love (QB – Utah State)
33. Josh Kelly (RB – UCLA)
34. Devin Duvernay (WR – Tennessee)
35. Cole Kmet (TE – Notre Dame)
36. Hunter Bryant (TE – Washington)

It’s quite shocking to see the first tight end not come off the board until the 31st pick. Granted, it’s not a good tight end class, but at least one of them will be drafted inside the top two rounds of the NFL Draft. Oddly enough, my TE1 isn’t even in this range.

This area of the draft doesn’t feel great to me, as it’s a bunch of players who we kind of know what they are, and most of them have limited ceilings. When drafting players in this area, you should have one thing in your mind: upside. While I don’t love Jordan Love as a prospect, if he gets a shot to start, he comes with tons of upside.

FOURTH ROUND

37. Lynn Bowden (WR – Kentucky)
38. Isaiah Hodgins (WR – Oregon State)
39. Brycen Hopkins (TE – Purdue)
40. Lamical Perine (RB – Florida)
41. K.J. Hill (WR – Ohio State)
42. Adam Trautman (TE – Dayton)
43. Quintez Cephus (WR – Wisconsin)
44. Van Jefferson (WR – Florida)
45. Jalen Hurts (QB – Oklahoma)
46. Darrynton Evans (RB – Appalachian State)
47. Jacob Eason (QB – Washington)
48. Salvon Ahmed (RB – Washington)

This is one of my favorite areas of the draft, as most are ready to just call it quits and are just throwing darts. Running backs in this range simply don’t hit. This is where you take wide receivers and hope there’s an injury that give them an opportunity to shine. Quintez Cephus would move into the top-20 rookies if he’s drafted by the end of the third-round. Will his 4.7-second 40-time eliminate him from the possibility? Maybe, but he shouldn’t be going in the fourth-round of rookie drafts. Some other names in this range that intrigue me include Van Jefferson and Jalen Hurts. This is your reminder that Daniel Jones went in the fourth-round of rookie drafts (after the NFL Draft) last year.

Brycen Hopkins is a move tight end, which produces fantasy results. The NFL is changing and the team that drafts Hopkins will understand he’s not meant to stay in and block. He should not be going this late in rookie drafts. The same can be said for the gigantic Adam Trautman, who’s oozing with upside, though he’s extremely raw. Again, you should have one thing in your mind this late in rookie drafts: upside.

Notable Prospects Outside the Top Four Rounds

Thaddeus Moss (TE – LSU)
Collin Johnson (WR – Tennessee)
Jared Pinkney (TE – Vanderbilt)

If not for surgery on his foot, Thaddeus Moss was in the conversation for the No. 1 tight end in this class. While I do believe it hurts his draft stock, he shouldn’t be falling this far. Collin Johnson isn’t going to be drafted inside the top three rounds, but if given an opportunity, he’s a 6-foot-6, 220-pound wide receiver with long limbs. Prior to his 2019 season that was a letdown, Johnson was expected to be a second-round pick in the NFL Draft. Pinkney was extremely slow at the Combine but he’s a well-rounded tight end who played in a run-heavy attack. He’s someone who can be a force inside the red zone.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.