A few weeks ago, I broke down four players to target in Best Ball leagues, but this time I’m going to highlight the names that you should avoid. As of now, with free agency still a few weeks away, and the NFL draft soon to follow, values are sure to change. But as we sit here today, these six players are ones you should look to avoid based on their current values.
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Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
I love me some Josh Allen for fantasy football, don’t get me wrong. His 17 career rushing touchdowns in 28 games carry a tremendous amount of value. However, after a rookie season that saw him post four games of 26 fantasy points or more, Allen became a much more consistent player in his sophomore season. While his end of year numbers ranked him as the QB6 in some scoring formats, he lacked big games, finishing with just one game over 26 points. I do expect Allen to be solid in 2020, but if you’re trying to catch those “boom” weeks, I’m not paying the QB7 price tag he currently carries.
A few weeks ago, I broke down four players to target in Best Ball leagues, but this time I’m going to highlight the names that you should avoid. As of now, with free agency still a few weeks away, and the NFL draft soon to follow, values are sure to change. But as we sit here today, these six players are ones you should look to avoid based on their current values.
Complete early mock drafts using our free draft simulator
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
I love me some Josh Allen for fantasy football, don’t get me wrong. His 17 career rushing touchdowns in 28 games carry a tremendous amount of value. However, after a rookie season that saw him post four games of 26 fantasy points or more, Allen became a much more consistent player in his sophomore season. While his end of year numbers ranked him as the QB6 in some scoring formats, he lacked big games, finishing with just one game over 26 points. I do expect Allen to be solid in 2020, but if you’re trying to catch those “boom” weeks, I’m not paying the QB7 price tag he currently carries.
Kenyan Drake (RB – FA)
Currently coming off the board as the RB15, there are just too many factors that could prevent Drake from putting up the numbers we saw in the second half of last season. Now, Drake’s inconsistencies on a week to week basis are not a major concern in a best ball format, but you still need opportunity. With Drake hitting the free-agent market and the Cardinals having a good amount of money tied up with David Johnson, it’s not a guarantee he’ll be returning to Arizona. With receivers like D.J. Moore, Kenny Golladay, and Cooper Kupp going after him in ADP, I’m letting someone else roll the dice on Drake.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
We all know what a pleasant surprise Ekeler was in 2019. Many drafted him early, expecting the Melvin Gordon holdout to extend further into the season, but even when it didn’t, Ekeler finished as the RB6 in 0.5 PPR (RB4 in PPR). Unlike Drake, there is very little chance that Ekeler will play for a new team in 2020 despite being a restricted free agent. Still, the Chargers have plenty of questions to answer with Philip Rivers heading out of town, and both Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry hitting free agency. This offense could look very different in 2019. Ekeler’s career-high 92 receptions in 2019, good enough for second in the NFL, could be hard to replicate in a less productive offense.
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Damien Williams (WR – KC)
Please, no, not again. I know it’s hard, but let’s flash back just seven months ago to where we were taking Damien Williams in drafts. Coming off a spectacular 2018 postseason, Williams was commanding a Round 4 or Round 5 pick last August. Let’s not forget the easily forgettable 557 total yards and five scores Williams posted during the fantasy season in 2019. Yes, Williams finished with a strong postseason (again), but can he be trusted even in a best-ball format? The range of outcomes is wide, no doubt about it, but even as the RB25 off the board, I feel there are better risks to take prior to free agency and the draft. When you factor in the multiple attempts Kansas City made last offseason to add to this backfield, I expect the Chiefs to add a running back or two this spring.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Wide receiver is going to be an extremely deep position in 2020, as the value in the early to middle rounds is shaping up nicely. As I look at current ADP, Sutton is a player whose price tag jumps off the page as a bad deal. As the current WR15, other players drafted 7-plus picks later, such as Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, and D.J. Chark offer just as much upside at a lower price. I like the talent, but there are still questions around this offense, so I’m not willing to pay the premium for Sutton that leaves very little room for return. If Sutton’s value starts to slide, I’ll be one of the first people to jump on the bandwagon, but his price is too steep for now.
Darren Waller (TE – LVR)
Waller was a fantastic story in 2019, and he provided incredible value late in drafts. Now heading into 2020, we get our first look at Waller’s draft value as a more proven player at a shallow position. Currently coming off the board at the end of a tight end run that includes Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews, Waller is currently being taken in the middle of Round 4. With many things falling right for Waller in 2019, I expect there to be more competition for targets in Las Vegas in 2020. But the biggest factor when projecting Waller next season are the rumors that the Raiders could move on from Derek Carr, a quarterback who has utilized the tight end as his top target the past three seasons. Based on these factors, I’ll be passing on Waller at his current ADP for a later round target at the position.
Complete early mock drafts using our free draft simulator
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Kyle August is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyleFFfellas.
