2020 Bracketology 3.0 – Bubble Teams & Bracket Prediction

Don’t look now, but Selection Sunday is already next weekend. Soon enough, we’ll see the small schools claiming their 25 auto-bids while larger programs are fighting for any remaining at-large bids in their conference tournaments. I’ll have one more bracketology report next Friday. Today, we’ll take a look at the locks, near-locks, bubble teams and longshots before getting to the full bracket.

Scroll down to the bottom for the full projected bracket

If you are looking to get a head start on your bracket contests, TeamRankings always has the best info come tournament time. I live on that site from Selection Sunday until tip-off. They’ve got all kinds of discounts on their bracket picks and analysis going on before Selection Sunday.

Teams in contention for 1 seed

listed in order

Kansas (27-3)
Gonzaga (29-2)
Baylor (26-3)
Duke (24-6)
Dayton (28-2)
Louisville (24-6)
Michigan St (21-9)
San Diego St (29-1)
Florida St (25-5)

Highlight Team: Dayton Flyers
Have you all seen this Dayton team play? Oh, boy, just wait until you watch them come tournament time. Obi Toppen is a near-lock to be selected within the first five picks this season as he has dropped 20 PPG on 63% shooting with 7.6 boards and 2+ assists per contest. Their only two losses came to Colorado, a tournament team in overtime against the likely #1 overall seed, Kansas, in overtime. Besides that, Dayton has taken care of business thanks to the most efficient offense in the country. They’ll be a tough out in the tournament and could land a one seed if Duke or Gonzaga loses in the conference tournaments.

Other locks to dance

listed in order

BYU (24-7)
Maryland (23-7)
Oregon (23-7)
Houston (22-8)
Ohio State (21-9)
W Virginia (20-10)
Arizona (20-10)
Michigan (19-11)
Villanova (23-7)
Creighton (23-7)
Seton Hall (21-8)
Iowa (20-10)
Kentucky (24-6)
Penn State (21-9)

Highlight Team: Michigan Wolverines
You may be looking at Michigan with the 11 losses and their current eighth place in their conference but the resume is especially impressive. Not only do they have the third most difficult schedule to date but it is laced with big wins including an 18-point victory versus Gonzaga and a 9-point win against the Michigan State Spartans. The Wolverines lose back to back games this week but are still a lock to dance and should end up somewhere between a 3 and 7 seed depending on how they play against #9 Maryland and in the Big 10 tournament.

At-Large Bubble (In unless they meltdown)

listed in order

Texas Tech (18-12)
Butler (21-9)
Florida (19-11)
Marquette (18-11)
Colorado (21-9)
Wisconsin (20-10)
Illinois (20-10)

Highlight Team: Butler Bulldogs
You may remember the days when Butler was a mid-major program getting in with their auto-bids or 25-win seasons, but times have changed. In fact, their Big East schedule ranks top 30 in the country and has been even tougher than what teams like Baylor, Duke, Louisville and Arizona have played. Speaking of the probable 1-seed, Baylor, Butler went into Waco and lost bt one point earlier in the season. They’ve only got one bad loss (DePaul) all season and the rest are to tournament teams or those close on the bubble. Outside of that, they’ve compiled impressive wins versus Florida, Purdue, Stanford, Xavier, Creighton and Providence. They’ve got a strong chance of making the field as an at-large team.

At-Large Bubble (Most likely in)

listed in order

St Marys (24-7)
Purdue (16-14)
Auburn (24-6)
Rutgers (19-11)
LSU (20-10)
Stanford (20-10)
Wichita St (22-8)
Utah State (24-8)

Highlight Team: Auburn Tigers
You remember Auburn for making the Final Four last year as a 5-seed and nearly knocking off the champs, Virginia on their way there. This team is similar, in that they shoot 26.4 three-pointers per game and are second in the SEC with only 6 losses to date, but the schedule has been on the weaker end. They’ve only played three ranked teams over the full season and while they did pick up wins at home against Kentucky and LSU (in overtime), they’ve also lost four of the last six including to NIT teams, Missouri, Georgia and Texas A&M. They should still be in, but their stock is quickly dropping. Don’t sleep on a team that can shoot for deep when you fill out your brackets, though.

At-Large Bubble (As close as it gets)

listed in order

Indiana (19-11)
N Iowa (25-5), auto-bid favorite
Arkansas (19-11)
Xavier (19-11)
Oklahoma (18-12)
Virginia (22-7)
Cincinnati (19-10)
Minnesota (13-16)
Memphis (21-9), last team in
Providence (18-12)
NC State (18-12)
Tennessee (17-13)
Notre Dame (18-12)
USC (21-9)
Texas (19-11)
Miss State (19-11)

Highlight Team: Minnesota Golden Gophers
“Hold on a second, you think a team that is 13-16 and 12th in their conference is going to make the tournament!?” Well, yes. Yes, I do. In fact, I have 12 Big 10 teams (a would-be record) making the Big Dance. It may be the deepest conference we’ve ever seen and Minnesota’s #1 strength of schedule is evidence to that. They’ve taken down some quality teams from Michigan and Ohio State to Wisconsin and Penn St. And most of their losses have been quite close including by 5 points at Indiana, 2 at Wisconsin, 1 versus Maryland, 3 versus Iowa, 6 at Penn St and 5 in double-overtime at Purdue. I expect the committee to recognize that this team belongs in the field unless they lose their first conference tournament game.

At-Large Bubble (Will have to step up)

listed in order

Alabama (16-14)
Syracuse (17-13)
Richmond (23-7)
UConn (18-12)
Arizona St (19-11)
S Carolina (18-12)
VCU (18-12)

Highlight Team: Syracuse Orange
No March feels quite right without Jim Boeheim’s great zone defense in the Big Dance. It is looking likely that we’ll have just that, however. The Orange haven’t quite done enough with their lackluster #63 strength of schedule to earn a bid. While none of their losses have been terrible, their most impressive win is in overtime against a Virginia team that might also be on the outside looking in. They also beat Notre Dame by two points and those aren’t good enough losses to carry them into the tournament. They’ll need a great showing in the conference tournament if they want even a play-in bid.

At-Large Bubble (Long Shots)

listed in order

Washington (14-16)
Yale (22-6), auto-bid favorite
GA Tech (16-14)
Clemson (15-14)
Rhode Island (20-9)
Vermont (24-7), auto-bid favorite
Tulsa (21-9)
Furman (25-6)
UCLA (19-11)
Akron (23-7), auto-bid favorite
Georgetown (15-15)
Georgia (15-15)
N Mex State (25-6)
Liberty (29-4), auto-bid favorite

Highlight Team: Georgia Bulldogs
This time last year, it was looking like Ja Morant’s Murray State was going to miss the Big Dance and end up in the NIT. The same can be said about the 15-15 Bulldogs and the #1 player in the country, Anthony Edwards, this season. They do have wins at Memphis and by 15 against Auburn, but a mid-season stretch where they lot 8 of 9 likely closed the door on their aspirations. Unless they win at LSU this week and storm to the SEC finals, their chances of making the field with an at-large bid are nil to none.

Mid-Major Auto-Bid Favorites

Listed in order of most challenging conferences then by teams most likely to win the conference tournament

American (Houston Cincinnati > Wichita St > Tulsa > Memphis)
West Coast (Gonzaga BYU > St Marys)
Mountain West (San Diego St Utah St > Nevada > Boise St)
Missouri Valley (N Iowa Loyola Chicago > Bradley > Indiana St)
Ohio Valley (Belmont Murray St Austin Peay)
Mid-American (Akron Buffalo > Ball St > Kent St > Toledo > Bowling Green)
Southern (E Tennessee St > NC Greensboro > Furman)
Ivy League (Yale Harvard Penn)
Conference USA (N Texas > LA Tech > W Kentucky)
America East (Vermont > Stony Brook > Hartford)
Atlantic Sun (Liberty > N Florida Lipscomb)
Western Ath (N Mexico St > CA Baptist > Seattle)
Big Sky (N Colorado > E Washington > Montana > S Utah)
Horizon League (Wright St N Kentucky > WI Green Bay)
Sun Belt (Georgia St > AR-Little Rock > Texas St > TX-Arlington)
Patriot (Colgate Boston U American > Lafayette)
Big West (UC Irvine > UC Santa Barbara > Hawaii)
Big South (Winthrop Radford Gardner Webb)
Southland (Stephen F Austin > Abilene Christian > Nicholls St > Sam Houston St)
Colonial Athletic (Hofstra Col Charleston > Northeastern > Towson)
Summit (S Dakota St > N Dakota St > Oral Roberts > S Dakota)
Metro Atlantic Ath (Siena > Rider > Monmouth > St Peters)
Southwestern Ath (Prairie View Texas So > Southern)
Northeast (St. Francis PA > Merrimack > Robert Morris > Sacred Heart)
Mid-Eastern Ath (NC Central > Norfolk St > NC A&T > Bethune-Cookman)

There are 25 mid-major conference tournaments which will all hand out auto-bids. Only a few of them currently feature teams likely to receive at-large bids but as we’ve seen time and time again, that number will grow to 4, 5 or perhaps 6. Should any of those teams (namely Gonzaga, San Diego St or Houston) lose in their conference tournaments, the bubble will shrink. Don’t be surprised if Northern Iowa, Yale, Vermont, Akron or Liberty find their way in even without an auto-bid.

I’ll check back next week from now to update the board. Now, let’s get a glimpse at how the bracket might play out if it was built by the committee today.