In my second installment of “Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates for 2020,” I am going to take a look at running backs who could see a natural uptick in fantasy production after underwhelming in 2019. These running backs logged a large number of targets, rush attempts, and snap percentage, but scored a below-average amount of rushing and receiving touchdowns.

In my last edition, I examined quarterbacks and tight ends who could overcome a down season and see increased productivity. Those players had a great opportunity from a volume perspective in 2019 but did not see a commensurate uptick in touchdowns. Given volume and touchdowns are positively correlated, players with consistent volume year-over-year should see a rise in scoring after underperforming in the prior year.

Like mobile quarterbacks, running backs have two dimensions to their game in which both areas can see positive regression. All of the players on this list have an added receiving element to their game in addition to their rushing ability, so positive regression in one or both areas could easily propel them up fantasy standings. Let’s take a look at some running backs who should see a natural regression back to the mean in 2020.

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Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
The New Orleans Saints’ lead back Alvin Kamara was a consensus top-three pick in fantasy drafts last September. He had just come off of two consecutive seasons where he finished as the RB3 and RB4 respectively in PPR and was a fan favorite by most drafters. This season, however, there was a massive drop-off in production and he finished as a low-end RB1 in PPR, averaging nearly six fantasy points fewer per game.

Nonetheless, the opportunity was there for the taking in 2019. With the exodus of Mark Ingram to Baltimore and arrival of Latavius Murray, Kamara saw a career-high in snap share. He had the eighth-highest snap percentage and fifth-most targets among running backs. Yet, his performance dipped as he averaged 2.2 fewer yards per reception and three fewer receiving touchdowns than the prior year.

From a rushing aspect, he was consistent in his yards per carry relative to 2018 but took a major hit in the touchdown department. Coming into the season, Kamara had a career average of one rush touchdown per every 14 carries. He couldn’t get in the end zone this season though, as he only managed one rush touchdown per every 34 carries in 2019. 

Despite seeing only 23 fewer touches, he scored 12 fewer touchdowns. Positive regression started to hit Kamara near season’s end, as four of his five total rushing scores came in the final two games of the regular season. I expect a major spike in touchdowns for Alvin Kamara and a return to his top-five running back status in 2020.

Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ)
Le’Veon Bell was another first-round fantasy pick who disappointed this past season. Bell played the third-highest snap percentage, attempted the 11th-most rushes, and had the seventh-most targets among running backs. Yet, he only scored four total touchdowns on an offense that had 25 total scores. He was tied with Leonard Fournette for the least amount of rushing touchdowns for running backs with more than 200 carries.

Surprisingly, despite the 83 percent snap share, Bell totaled his lowest amount of carries, receptions, and targets since 2015. Adam Gase was stubborn in his approach and did not design his offense to get Bell the ball. Even though Bell played several games with a backup quarterback and behind an offensive line that allowed over 50 sacks this year, he was not relied upon as a safety valve in the offense. Bell had all-world talent and great opportunity in 2019, yet he was underutilized and his fantasy output dipped as a result.

His outlook should be brighter for 2020. Either Bell will stay with the Jets for another year, where he can develop a rapport with Sam Darnold and positive regression will hit him, or he will be moved to a better situation where his talents can be maximized. In either case, Bell should be better off than he was this past season.

Even if Bell hits a career-low in touches again, which I highly doubt, he should garner a greater percentage of the team’s touchdowns and be more efficient overall. Expect Bell to re-enter RB1 territory regardless of his landing spot after finishing as the RB15 in PPR last year.

Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
Even though David Montgomery stole the spotlight in the Chicago backfield, Tarik Cohen had the opportunity to finish way above his RB28 PPR standing. In order to capitalize on his unique speed and run after the catch ability, Cohen was continually utilized all over the field, lining up in the backfield, slot, and out wide. 

However, despite averaging the third-most targets and fourth-most receptions of any running back, Cohen was only able to accumulate 456 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns, which ranked tenth-most and eight-most respectively among running backs. This was a stark decrease from the 725 receiving yards and five touchdowns he accumulated on 13 fewer targets the year before. With a similar volume, Cohen should see a sharp rise in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2020.

From a rushing standpoint, Cohen should see a marked improvement. He had zero rushing touchdowns this year and zero runs of 20+ yards. Last year, Cohen scored three rushing touchdowns and popped off seven runs of 20+ yards. With his speed and shiftiness, Cohen should be able to break a few more runs and get chunk gains next season. 

As the offense improves, and it can only go up from here, Cohen should garner more valuable targets in space and find his way into the end zone. Cohen won’t be a league winner, but he could be an undervalued RB2 worth taking on draft day.

Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC)
Positive regression doesn’t always mean a player will improve in all areas of his game from the prior year. Players can positively regress in some areas but negatively regress in others. I see this exact case occurring for the Jacksonville Jaguars third year running back, as he should see positive regression in the touchdown department, but negative regression in the receiving game.

Fournette was given great opportunity to succeed on the ground this year, as he logged the seventh-most rushing attempts of any running back, toting the rock 265 times. He had the second-highest snap share among running backs (88 percent) and started the most games of his career. He also set career-highs in rushing and receiving yardage.

Yet, as usual, touchdowns were the forgotten piece of the puzzle. Fournette only managed three rushing touchdowns on the year, ranking him behind 35 other running backs. He also logged zero receiving touchdowns despite seeing 100 targets. Like Le’Veon Bell, inconsistency from the quarterback position and a low-scoring offense was his undoing. Fournette has shown to be an incredibly effective runner over his career and I can see him doubling, if not tripling, his rushing touchdown output as the offense shows a natural improvement in 2020. 

While Fournette should see less receiving work, as he more than doubled his career-high in targets, his receiving touchdown output will see a boost. He will probably be more undervalued in Standard leagues rather than PPR next season, but he will be a beneficiary of positive touchdown regression nonetheless.

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Dan Ambrosino is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive and follow him @AmbrosinoNFL.