The concept of positional scarcity is arguably more important in fantasy baseball than in any of the four major sports. From a sheer number perspective, there are simply more positions to account for on the baseball diamond: nine fielding positions, starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and closers.
How much does positional scarcity matter in fantasy baseball? Every year is different and the extent at which positional scarcity matters is ultimately dependent on your league’s format.
Let’s investigate positional scarcity for the 2020 season:
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Positional Expectations
Every position has a different baseline expectation for production. Most fantasy owners would be thrilled with a .250/18/60 season out of their starting catcher, but that same batting line from a first baseman or outfielder would be free agent fodder.
Examining last year’s player stats sorted by position offers context into answering the position scarcity question. In a standard 10-team league, the 10th ranked player for each position (30th for outfielders) would roughly project as the worst possible starter on any team. Here are the R/AVG./HR/RBI/SB lines for the 10th-ranked player on ESPN’s Player Rater in 2019, sorted by position:
Tom Murphy (C – SEA): 32/.273/18/40/2
Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC): 89/.293/27/94/5
Jose Altuve (2B – HOU): 89/.298/31/74/6
Gleyber Torres (SS – NYY): 96/.278/38/90/5
Kris Bryant (3B – CHC): 108/.282/31/77/4
Ryan Braun (OF – MIL): 70/.285/22/75/11
All these batting lines appear very similar. Accordingly, drafters should feel confident in targeting their preferred players early without worrying about filling out specific positions. You are not exposing yourself to inferior production by waiting on drafting any batting position.
Catcher is the lone exception. Unless you draft one of the elite options, waiting is probably your best bet because most of the production by players ranked between fifth and fifteenth is going to be very similar. Catchers are more prone to injury, have less total at-bats, and generally hit worse than other positional players.
Top-100 Breakdown by Position
A quick skim through the top-100 of the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings reveals a multitude of outfielders, shortstops, and starting pitchers. First base, second base, catcher, and closer are rather shallow at the top.
Here is the positional breakdown (the total number of players below exceeds 100 because it includes repeat players with multiple position eligibility):
31 Outfielders
27 Starting Pitchers
16 Shortstops
14 Third Basemen
10 First Basemen
10 Second Basemen
4 Closers
1 Catcher
Keep in mind that this is just a high-level overview of player rankings. If you’re playing in a standard 10-team league, your first 10 draft picks will likely come from the above group of players — this will be the core of your team as you build the rest of your roster.
Starting Pitching
I was surprised to see such a high number of starting pitchers in the top-100 players, particularly considering the currently popular narrative of drafting multiple starting pitchers early as a result of potential scarcity. With upside names like Zack Greinke, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Paddack, Yu Darvish, Luis Severino, Tyler Glasnow, Trevor Bauer, and Jose Berrios floating around in the back-half of the top-100 – there is no need to feel any pressure to pay the premium for Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer. Starting pitching is quite plentiful at the top this year and any of these pitchers could conceivably become a reliable first or second option for your team.
Final Thoughts
While positional scarcity can play a factor in player valuation, the reality is that drafters are better off operating with a best player available approach, particularly during the early parts of the draft. There are so many unknowns in fantasy baseball — injuries, variance, trades, and even what the rest of your roster will look like — that worrying about position scarcity is more likely to harm than help. Rely on projections and gut instinct. After all, this is going to be your fantasy baseball team.
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Jarad Evans is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jarad, follow him @jarad_evans.
