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DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Friday (2/7)

Playing NBA DFS the day after the trade deadline is always a bit tricky. We’ve got all of these new players on teams which means they’ve logged recent travel miles, rendering them less efficient, they’ll have to get in the groove with their new teammates, and may even play fewer minutes than usual. You can anticipate their new teammates to see a bump in usage rate but that historically that hasn’t been the most reliable bet. Instead, I’ll be playing in straight on this eight-game slate by rostering players who benefit from injuries ahead of them on the usage-rate pecking order or players who have recently come into more minutes but haven’t seen their prices increase. I’ll tell you about my four core plays before providing the rest of my cash game player pool.

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Cornerstone Plays

James Harden (PG/SG – HOU): $12,100 @ PHO
Can we all agree to just not be stupid here? Ok, sure, Harden is coming off a rough game versus the Lakers and has had a few rough outings over the past two weeks. You all realize Russell Westbrook was playing in those games, right? He is out tonight AND Harden’s price has dipped a bit just in time for a tremendous matchup against a poor defending Suns teams. Typically I’ll write quite a bit more about my #1 cornerstone play of the night, but folks, it’s simple: the Rockets are implied for 118 points by Vegas without Westbrook. That can only mean a 70+ fantasy point outing for Harden. Don’t get cute and blow this.

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Cornerstone Plays

Deandre Ayton (C – PHO): $$8,600 vs HOU
I want you guys to say it with me, “Which center is playing Houston tonight?” Now, you are going to need to ask this question every single time the Rockets play because now that Clint Capela is gone, they’ll be running out 6’5″ P.J. Tucker as their center. My money is on the strong defending Robert Covington trying to contain Ayton tonight, but let’s get real, even great defending bigs have trouble with this assignment. Ayton has been going nuts lately too with Aron Baynes out, going for 48 points in 6 of those 10 games. He needs just 43 to hit 5x value tonight and I’d be willing to wager he ends up north of 6x or even 7x with this matchup.

Justin Holiday (SF – IND): $4,400 vs TOR
Ok, clearly we need to save some money now because those were two expensive starting pieces. I’m writing this early in the day so there is a chance Victor Oladipo still plays but the word is currently that Indiana is expected to give him a rest day. I couldn’t possibly write this piece knowing the likelihood of that and not scream from the rooftops to get Holiday into your lineup. If Oladipo is active, it’s still a pretty good play, believe it or not, as Holiday is averaging 28 minutes per contest in the last four even with Oladipo drawing the starts. Not only that but of all the great defenders for Toronto, small forward is the one lone hole to attack. Holiday is coming off a huge game and could again approach the whopping 11x value he hit against this same Toronto team Wednesday.

Kendrick Nunn (PG/SG – MIA) (PG/SG – MIA): $4,800 @ SAC
We need more value and while I really wanted to use Bruce Brown or Tim Hardaway Jr. here, Nunn is just too good to pass up tonight with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Meyers Leonard and now Justise Winslow out and gone, you can bet Nunn’s usage rate is going to be sufficient to hit value tonight. Yes, he has been up and down because his minutes dipped but 30+ is a virtual lock tonight and with that should come 15+ field goal attempts. It wasn’t long ago that Nunn was back to scoring 180 DraftKings points in a five-game stretch. I’m banking on increased usage tonight in Sacramento returning him to that type of production which at his salary would be 7.5x value.