The last day of January brings us a gorgeous seven-game slate to analyze. We already know that Luka Doncic will miss tonight’s game, which opens up a lot of options on the Mavericks. Getting that situation right will largely dictate your success. Let’s get into the slate.
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Guards
James Harden (PG/SG – HOU): $10,600 vs. Mavericks
This is the lowest salary we have seen on James Harden since October. There is a reason for that, of course, he is averaging just 42 DraftKings points over his last six games, but isn’t the full season sample more important than a couple of weeks for a guy like Harden? He has shot the ball miserably lately, making just 13 of his last 71 three-point attempts (18%). That simply cannot continue, so this is a fantastic spot to take the discount here and hope for those shooting woes to turn around. It is very rare to find a player with legitimate 80 points upside for less than $11,000, so I will be jumping all over this spot tonight.
Ricky Rubio (PG – PHO): $5,900 vs. Thunder
This is a price play, as Rubio’s salary has really bottomed out here after a few bad games in a row. Over his last three games, he has made just eight of his 25 shot attempts, which has led to poor fantasy point outputs and a lowered price. Nothing else has really changed lately to make you think Rubio should actually be a sub-$6,000 player, so I am more than willing to put him in my lineup even in this less than ideal matchup (the Thunder shave off 10 fantasy points from their opponent’s totals). Rubio makes a nice cash game option at point guard tonight.
The last day of January brings us a gorgeous seven-game slate to analyze. We already know that Luka Doncic will miss tonight’s game, which opens up a lot of options on the Mavericks. Getting that situation right will largely dictate your success. Let’s get into the slate.
Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings
Guards
James Harden (PG/SG – HOU): $10,600 vs. Mavericks
This is the lowest salary we have seen on James Harden since October. There is a reason for that, of course, he is averaging just 42 DraftKings points over his last six games, but isn’t the full season sample more important than a couple of weeks for a guy like Harden? He has shot the ball miserably lately, making just 13 of his last 71 three-point attempts (18%). That simply cannot continue, so this is a fantastic spot to take the discount here and hope for those shooting woes to turn around. It is very rare to find a player with legitimate 80 points upside for less than $11,000, so I will be jumping all over this spot tonight.
Ricky Rubio (PG – PHO): $5,900 vs. Thunder
This is a price play, as Rubio’s salary has really bottomed out here after a few bad games in a row. Over his last three games, he has made just eight of his 25 shot attempts, which has led to poor fantasy point outputs and a lowered price. Nothing else has really changed lately to make you think Rubio should actually be a sub-$6,000 player, so I am more than willing to put him in my lineup even in this less than ideal matchup (the Thunder shave off 10 fantasy points from their opponent’s totals). Rubio makes a nice cash game option at point guard tonight.
Delon Wright (PG/SG – DAL): $5,000 @ Rockets
Wright has been a pretty productive fantasy player this year, he owns a 1.2 fantasy points per minute rate this year. Strangely, that actually comes down to 1.1 when you take Doncic off the floor. However, Wright should get some extra minutes tonight and that could easily lead to a double-digit shot attempt night for him. He has also been chipping in other categories (four rebounds, three assists, one steal per game this year), which gives him a higher floor in this spot. The Mavericks are going to be popular given that Doncic’s massive usage is missing, and Wright is one way to absorb some of that into your lineup.
Seth Curry (SG – DAL): $4,800 @ Rockets
We know that Doncic is out tonight, and this play becomes even stronger if Tim Hardaway misses the game as well (he is currently questionable). Curry has been on the floor without Doncic for 462 minutes this year and has averaged 0.77 fantasy points per minute. When Doncic and Hardaway are off the floor, Curry’s FPPM rate jumps to .82. If both of those players are out, Curry should play close to 30 minutes, with real upside for more than that. He is a high upside player given his 23% usage rate in those situations. At $4,800, this is not a total lock of a play, since there’s still a real possibility you could only get 20 points from the guy, but someone has to shoot the ball for the Mavericks tonight and Curry is a good candidate to take over a lot of shots.
Forwards / Centers
Brandon Ingram (SF/PF – NOP): $7,400 vs. Grizzlies
The return of Zion Williamson has lowered Ingram’s price. He was an $8,800 player in the game before Zion came back, and now his price has fallen to $7,400. All of that is despite his FPPM rate staying the same (okay, actually it dropped from 1.24 to 1.23). He has been hurting in the rebounds category over the last four games, grabbing just nine rebounds total, but the shot attempts are still just fine and he is chipping in a bit more in assists. He is not much of a threat for 50 DK points anymore, but at this price you really only need 40, and I believe Ingram can give that to you tonight, especially in this nice matchup with the Grizzlies.
Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C – DAL): $6,800 @ Rockets
The main beneficiary of Doncic being out is Porzingis, who has a 1.38 FPPM rate with Doncic off the floor (he has a ridiculous 1.7 FPPM rate with Doncic and Hardaway off the floor as well). Luka missed four games earlier in the year, and Porzingis averaged 18 shot attempts in those four games. His DraftKings priced ballooned to $8500 over that span of games, so you are getting an enormous discount at $6,800 tonight. I would say that Porzingis has a 40 point floor in this spot, and the Rockets matchup (they add 8 fantasy points to opponent’s team totals) gives an even more enormous ceiling tonight. I am guessing Porzingis will be the most highly owned player on the slate tonight, you’re going to want to roster him in cash games.
Jonas Valanciunas (C – MEM): $6,300 @ Pelicans
J-Val has been a little less consistent in January than he was showing as a whole this year, but this price seems just silly for a guy with his upside. He has routinely scored over 40 Draftkings points with a handful of games over 50 this year. The Pelicans have been very gracious to opposing centers, giving u an average salary return of 5.7x to them. This is a very attractive game environment, and playing Jonas here gives you a huge upside player in a great spot. He is probably my favorite center option tonight.
J.J. Redick (SG/SF – NOP): $4,000 vs. Grizzlies
I would not ever advise playing Redick in tournaments, as he really has not shown much ceiling ability this year, but for this price, he is a fine cash game option. This is a great matchup for the Pelicans, as the Grizzlies are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and add 8.5 fantasy points to their opponent’s totals on average this year. That could mean a few more three-point attempts for Redick, who has been shooting a lot lately. Since the return of Zion, Redick has taken five, ten, nine, and ten shots with three, seven, five, and six of those being three-point attempts. At $4,000, he does not need to do much to get you the 6x return you are looking for. He is one of the better cheap forwards for cash games tonight.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.