We have a very compact seven-game slate on the board for tonight. As of right now, there is no real slate-breaking injury news, so let’s talk about some of the top plays that the data has to offer.
Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings
Guards
Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $12,400 vs. Trail Blazers
It is always tough to pay $12,000-plus for one player, as things really have to go well for you to see a 6x return (74 DraftKings points in this case) at that level. However, if you do luck into a big return at a huge salary, it becomes tough for your lineup to fail since you have already successfully allocated such a huge chunk of your salary. Doncic has gone for 70-plus DraftKings points in three of his last seven games, and the Blazers offer a really nice matchup in this spot. They have added eight fantasy points to their opponent’s average totals, and this game checks in with a high over/under total of 229. If you can find some cheap players to pair with Doncic, he is more than viable tonight.
DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF – SAS): $8,100 vs. Hawks
The Spurs’ leading scorer is rarely a popular guy in DFS, given his relative lack of ceiling, but he has once again been one of the game’s most consistent contributors. You would have to go back to mid-December to find a game in which DeRozan did not deliver 30+ DraftKings points, and he has cleared 40 in his last four games. The consistency does come at a cost here, as we have only seen DeRozan go over 50 DraftKings points (which is more of what we want in today’s game) twice in the last month. The Hawks provide a matchup to exploit, however, as they have allowed an average return of 5.9x to wing players this season. DeRozan gives you a nice floor with some paths to a high ceiling, which is a good way to begin a lineup.
We have a very compact seven-game slate on the board for tonight. As of right now, there is no real slate-breaking injury news, so let’s talk about some of the top plays that the data has to offer.
Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings
Guards
Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $12,400 vs. Trail Blazers
It is always tough to pay $12,000-plus for one player, as things really have to go well for you to see a 6x return (74 DraftKings points in this case) at that level. However, if you do luck into a big return at a huge salary, it becomes tough for your lineup to fail since you have already successfully allocated such a huge chunk of your salary. Doncic has gone for 70-plus DraftKings points in three of his last seven games, and the Blazers offer a really nice matchup in this spot. They have added eight fantasy points to their opponent’s average totals, and this game checks in with a high over/under total of 229. If you can find some cheap players to pair with Doncic, he is more than viable tonight.
DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF – SAS): $8,100 vs. Hawks
The Spurs’ leading scorer is rarely a popular guy in DFS, given his relative lack of ceiling, but he has once again been one of the game’s most consistent contributors. You would have to go back to mid-December to find a game in which DeRozan did not deliver 30+ DraftKings points, and he has cleared 40 in his last four games. The consistency does come at a cost here, as we have only seen DeRozan go over 50 DraftKings points (which is more of what we want in today’s game) twice in the last month. The Hawks provide a matchup to exploit, however, as they have allowed an average return of 5.9x to wing players this season. DeRozan gives you a nice floor with some paths to a high ceiling, which is a good way to begin a lineup.
Collin Sexton (PG/SG – CLE): $6,000 at Grizzlies
One of the best matchups in the league appears to be point guards against the Grizzlies, as they have averaged a 5.8x return on salary this year. Sexton has played better this year, and he has averaged a 0.86 fantasy point per minute rate this year. He has scored 20 or more points in three of his last five games, and he is quickly becoming the number one option on this offense. He has seen 15 or more shot attempts in every game since December 20th. The fast-paced Grizzlies give Sexton a great shot at a 20-plus shot attempt day, which gives him a huge ceiling even at this somewhat surprisingly high price tag.
Jeremy Lamb (SG – IND): $4,600 vs. Timberwolves
Lamb’s minutes have been down lately, but he did play a full helping of 28 minutes in the last game. His price is near a season-low, which means it is time to buy. For the year, he is a 0.8 fantasy point per minute contributor, but the Wolves boost outcomes for guards, allowing an average return of 5.7x on the year. When Lamb plays 25-plus minutes, he averages more than 10 shot attempts per game, so this becomes a really nice tournament play if you project him for close to 30 minutes again. I would stay away in cash games as the floor is really low here, but now is the time to give Lamb a shot in tournaments.
Forwards / Centers
Bradley Beal (SG/SF – WAS): $7,600 at Raptors
This is a price-steered play, as the Raptors are not typically a team to pick on defensively. Beal’s price remains lower as he comes back from a lot of missed time due to injury. He has played just 27 minutes in each of his last two games, and DraftKings has finally adjusted his price for that downside, dropping it $800 since last game. I do not see a reason Beal would not get his full minutes back soon, and if that comes tonight, he is going to torch this price tag. He is a 1.25 fantasy point per minute player for the year, and we would be looking for about 40 DraftKings points at this price tag. That means he would only need to play 32 minutes to project to hit that mark, and you know the huge ceiling that he brings to the table. I love me some Brad Beal tonight.
Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF – MIN): $6,700 at Pacers
The form has not been great for Wiggins (under 23 DraftKings points in his last three), and the matchup is not great (wings only average a 4.9x return against the Pacers), but the upside at this lower price tag puts Wiggins in play for me. You can feel pretty confident that this price will return to the $7,500 range before long, and it is usually a profitable strategy to buy low on players. A lot of his recent struggles have come from poor shooting, as he has made just two of his 14 three-point attempts over the last three. If he can shoot a good percentage from the field tonight, he should pay off this salary.
Pascal Siakam (PF/C – TOR): $7,900 vs. Wizards
The Raptors draw the nut matchup tonight against the Wizards, a team that continues to get torched. They have added 15 fantasy points to their opponent’s average total on the year. Siakam returned from his long injury absence two games ago, and he has played 30 minutes in both games. If he can ramp that up to 35, he is an amazing play in this matchup at this price tag. The Raptors have really been priced up for this spot, as they should be, but Siakam’s price remains palatable. There’s a huge ceiling for the Raptors’ young star here.
Marc Gasol (C – TOR): $4,800 vs. Wizards
Gasol offers an affordable way to get some Raptors exposure tonight, as he checks in under $5,000 here. For the season, he is a 1.01 fantasy point per minute player, and he has a really good chance to earn 30-plus minutes in this one. The Wizards have allowed an average salary return of 5.9x to centers this year. Gasol is far from a go-to option on offense for the Raptors, but I will take any 30-plus minute big man against the Wizards for this low of a price. Sign me up for some Marc Gasol tonight.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.