What makes an effective running back? Most would agree it is a large combination of factors including vision, burst, strength, agility, processing reads, etc. The purpose of this study is to find out which NFL running backs were the best and worst at creating yards on their own and the fantasy implications of doing so. Created yards are yards gained evading tackles, fighting through contact, setting up defenders, and capitalizing on opportunity.
Of course, these yards created need to be adjusted for multiple factors. We can’t just use the yards-per-carry stat because it doesn’t capture what is truly happening on each play. How well are the offensive linemen blocking? Do teams put extra defenders in the box strictly to eliminate the run game? If a team’s offensive line is letting in at least two defenders through before the back reaches the line of scrimmage, very little creation is going to be available for any player.
While the best measurement of this would be to watch every play of every running back in the league throughout all 17 weeks and calculate how many yards they created on their own each play, we can also take an analytical approach. In order to do so, we will use a combination of readily available stats to give us a very close picture of what that same play-by-play process would give us.
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Below you’ll find which stats I found particularly relevant to evaluating a player’s yards created profile. More factors can certainly be used, but they are what I felt was most important along with links on where to find them:
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Second Level Yards
- 8+ Defenders in the Box
- Yards After Contact Per Carry (YCO)
- Yards Before Contact adjusted for Team Offensive Line Blocking (Adj. YBC)
- Yards After Catch Per Reception (YAC)
- Total Touches – smaller sample sizes are less reliable
- Yards Per Carry (YPC)
Now that we have all of this information, it’s time to blend it together. Each category gets weighted against the league average. Each variable is dependent on others, such as how yards before contact depends directly on blocking and how many defenders are in the box.
We can then calculate what each player was expected to gain versus what they actually gained. This difference you see in the chart is what I am labeling as my “yards created above or below expected per attempt.” In the following chart, each running back with over 80 carries on the year is listed along with how well they performed in 2019:
This chart may feel a little busy, so I’ll include a simple excel sheet at the end of this article for those seeking exact values in an easier to read format. The main takeaways are the extreme ends on both the positive and negative corners. Players with +/- 0.25 yards from zero can largely be taken as performing as expected given their circumstances.
Let’s take a look at the five best and worst in the league at creating yards with a minimum of 80 carries.
Best RBs at Creating Yards
1. Derrick Henry (TEN)
Henry obliterated the yards created profile in 2019. He’s second-most in YCO per carry, first in YAC per reception (although it’s a small sample size), and has a staggering 35% stacked boxed rate, which means the defense knew he was coming and he ran through them anyway. He’s had some monster plays that inflate these numbers, but you can bet that he’d still be the yards created leader anyway considering how far away the next closest player is. With the fourth-ranked rushing offensive line, he had the security of good blocking upfront as well. He’s now been a top-three leader in yards created for two years straight. Expect more of the same in 2020 if the Titans retain him.
2. Raheem Mostert (SF)
I wonder how many people foresaw a 27-year-old undrafted free agent leading the pack of a 49ers’ running back group consisting of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, and Jerick McKinnon. Injuries played their part, but by the end of the regular season, Mostert has locked up the RB1 role in San Francisco and rightfully so. He was top-six in both Adjusted YBC and YCO per carry, a feat that no other back was close to accomplishing. With Breida’s contract expiring and McKinnon an $8.5M cap hit if retained, Mostert is the surest lock amongst them all in 2020 for both performance and financial reasons.
3. Nick Chubb (CLE)
A yards after contact human wrecking ball with burst to take advantage afterward, Chubb has now led the entire league in YCO per carry for two years straight. This sticky stat has been his signature mark since entering the league. One negative for him is that he went against base or light fronts 87% of the time, whereas the league average is 78%, so he’s had a bit more room to run than most. With Kareem Hunt now a free agent, the stage should be set for Chubb to increase his volume even more next year.
4. Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
There’s not much to say here that isn’t already well known. CMC is the best in fantasy. He is the most elusive back in the league, leading Adjusted YBC by a solid margin. Throw in massive volume, high efficiency, red-zone work, and receiving roles, and there’s no doubt he is the 1.01 going forward.
5. Leonard Fournette (JAC)
Despite having the sixth-worst run-blocking line in the league, Fournette still came in as a top-tier back at creating yards. Think about how impressive that is. Poor blocking and stacked boxes couldn’t stop him from churning out gains. It was a nice relief to see his performance rebound after a down 2018. His heavily increased role in the passing game is also a major boost to his fantasy stock. His lack of touchdowns is nearly guaranteed to rebound considering his workload, so be sure he’s on your squad next year when that happens.
Notable close contenders: Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Kenyan Drake, and Dalvin Cook
Worst RBs at Creating Yards
45th of 45. Le’Veon Bell (NYJ)
Coming in dead last among qualifying candidates is Le’Veon Bell. Granted he was dealt arguably the worst hand imaginable going to the second-worst run-blocking line with abysmal overall offensive performance and play calling. Even when he was able to elude a tackle, another defender was already there waiting. Taking a year off and going into an impossible situation were certainly factors here, and now the Jets are openly shopping his gaudy contract per their GM. Let’s hope that trade talk comes to fruition, as literally anywhere else – other than the Dolphins – would be a fantasy upgrade.
44. Peyton Barber (TB)
It’s time for the Ronald Jones show to take over. Under practically identical circumstances on a per-carry basis, Jones gained +0.25 yards above expected whereas Barber gained -0.58 yards below expected. Jones also beat him out in every individual yards created category listed in the introduction. The only thing standing in the way between Jones and increased fantasy relevance is apparently pass protection:
43. Melvin Gordon (LAC)
Gordon is probably not who you expected to see this low on the list. He had better than average blocking and only faced stacked boxes 12% of the time yet consistently gained less than expected. His 2.1 YCO per carry was particularly bad. Similar to the Jones-Barber dialogue of the Bucs, Austin Ekeler outperformed Gordon in every yards created category, especially as a receiver. Gordon is not a player to bet on going forward unless he becomes the undisputed top dog in a new team’s needy backfield.
42. Todd Gurley (LAR)
Was it the arthritic knee, the collapse of the offensive line, a lackluster offense, or a combination of it all? Any way we slice it, it was a down year for the usually star-studded Gurley. A downgraded offensive line and a lack of production in the receiving game were two of the biggest contributors, but his ability to create from both elusiveness before contact and after the catch as a receiver both dropped to either the worst or second-worst they have been in his five-year career.
Something is wrong. He has either lost a step for good or needs another offseason to recover. Regardless, I’m not convinced that he is worth the gamble aside from his relentlessly high touchdown rate.
41. Devonta Freeman (ATL)
Coming off a year-long injury did not bode well for Freeman, but making matters worse were constant injuries to the Falcons’ offensive linemen. He landed in the bottom 20% of all yards created categories except Adjusted YBC, where he was exactly at league average. He was already splitting at least some time to the likes of Ito Smith, Brian Hill, and Qadree Ollison. However, an improved offensive line with the healthy return of both starters and multiple second-year rookies can do nothing but help the situation. Next to Bell, I’m betting Freeman has the next best shot for biggest improvement next year; largely based on returning supporting cast and situation.
Notable close contenders: David Montgomery, Sony Michel, and David Johnson
Below you’ll find the yards created chart from above, but listed out in table form:
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.