We are now just six weeks away from the week of college basketball where every team will be competing for those auto-bids in their conference tournaments. While there is still much that can change, it isn’t too early to begin thinking about how that 68-team bracket may shape up. Today is the first of four bracketology reports I’ll be providing over the next month and a half. We’ll take a look at the locks, near-locks, bubble teams and longshots before getting to the full bracket.
Scroll down to the bottom for the full projected bracket
If you are looking to get a head start on your bracket contests, TeamRankings always has the best info come tournament time. I live on that site from Selection Sunday until tip-off. They’ve got all kinds of discounts on their bracket picks and analysis going on before Selection Sunday.
Teams in contention for 1 seed
listed in order
- Duke
- Kansas
- Arizona
- Michigan St
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Louisville
- W Virginia
- Kentucky
- Oregon
There is no clear-cut #1 team in the country this year like some of the powerhouses we have seen in the past, but the top-tier is obviously Duke and Kentucky for now. It is difficult to imagine either ending up as a two or three seed outside of a crucial injury down the stretch. If Gonzaga wins out with just one loss, they would almost certainly grab a one-seed as well, plus you’d have to think the winner of the Big 10 will be in good shape, seeing as though it is by far the top conference this season.
Other locks to dance
listed in order
- Maryland
- Villanova
- Florida St
- Dayton
- Ohio St
- Colorado
- Seton Hall
- Iowa
- Butler
- San Diego St
- Arkansas
Even if these teams above end up losing a handful of games in the next few weeks, they should all be dancing. In fact, don’t be surprised if any team from this tier takes another leap forward to become a legitimate Final Four threat. With the way Dayton is playing so far this season, you’d have to think they have a shot at performing like we’ve seen from mid-majors, Butler and Wichita St, in the recent past.
At-Large Bubble (In unless they meltdown)
listed in order
- Auburn
- Texas Tech
- Penn St
- Illinois
- Houston
- Marquette
- Wichita St
- LSU
- Michigan
In case you haven’t noticed, the Big Ten is absolutely stacked. Penn St, Illinois and Michigan are the 5th, 6th and 7th teams already listed and we haven’t even gone deep into the bubble yet. In fact, my model has 12 Big Ten teams within the top 45 nationwide. Auburn and Texas Tech, meanwhile, are just as dangerous as they were last season when they snuck through their brackets to the Final Four as three and five seeds.
At-Large Bubble (Most likely in)
listed in order
- Memphis
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Florida
- Creighton
- VCU
- Alabama
- Rutgers
We’ve never seen more than nine teams from a single conference make the NCAA Tournament and Rutgers would put the Big Ten at a record ten teams in. While it may seem like a longshot to many of you reading, can you actually imagine a mid-major with no strength of schedule getting in over a 7-3 team versus the toughest conference we’ve seen in years, or perhaps ever?
At-Large Bubble (As close as it gets)
listed in order
- Mississippi St
- Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Cincinnati
- BYU
- Utah St
- Stanford
- Minnesota (last team in)
- Oklahoma
- NC St
- St Marys
- USC
- Notre Dame
Keep in mind as you are reading this that the bubble is bound to shrink during conference tournaments as it always does. More than likely, the bubble will end around where Cincy and BYU are currently listed. In fact, it wouldn’t be crazy to see each one of these teams miss the tournament including last year’s champions, Virginia. They are all easily within striking distance, however, of forcing the selection committee to find a way to get them in.
At-Large Bubble (Will have to step up)
listed in order
- Georgetown
- Washington
- Tennessee
- UNC
- Georgia
- Syracuse
- E Tenn St (auto-bid favorites)
- Xavier
- N Iowa (auto-bid favorites)
- Rhode Island
- Texas Christian
- VA Tech
- Arizona St
- Texas
UNC sitting at 10-10 may be the most surprising start to the season but we’ve seen squads like this underperform for a full season and miss the big dance as a result. Syracuse stands out among this group as well because they are always so dangerous with that zone come tournament time. Georgia may be the most worth paying attention to, though, as Anthony Edwards is one of the top NBA prospects in college and would make any March Madness game twice as exciting.
At-Large Bubble (Long Shots)
listed in order
- Iowa St
- Clemson
- Yale (auto-bid favorite)
- Oklahoma St
- Missouri
- Richmond
- Providence
- St. Johns
- Pittsburgh
- Georgia Tech
- UConn
- Oregon St
- Saint Louis
- Liberty (auto-bid favorite)
Much like E Tennessee St and Northern Iowa above, Yale and Liberty probably need to win their conference titles to get in, but assuming none of them lose another game the rest of the way until their conference finals, is it possible that we see one of these mid-majors steal an at-large bid from a power school conference. There are some quality programs in the mix here so it seems probable that one or even two will catch fire and end up squarely on the bubble but each of them has their work cut out for them.
Mid-Major Auto-Bid Favorites
Listed in order of most challenging conferences then by teams most likely to win the conference tournament
- West Coast (Gonzaga
BYU > St Marys) - American (Houston > Wichita St > Cincinnati > Memphis > Tulsa)
- Mountain West (San Diego St Utah St > Nevada > Boise St)
- Southern (E Tennessee St > Furman > NC Greensboro)
- Ivy League (Yale > Harvard > Penn)
- Missouri Valley (N Iowa Loyola Chicago > Bradley)
- Ohio Valley (Murray St > Belmont > Austin Peay)
- Conference USA (LA Tech > N Texas > W Kentucky)
- America East (Vermont Stony Brook > Albany)
- Mid-American (Akron Bowling Green > Kent St > Ball St > Toledo)
- Atlantic Sun (Liberty > N Florida Jacksonville)
- Western Ath (N Mexico St > CA Baptist > Seattle)
- Horizon League (Wright St > N Kentucky > WI Green Bay)
- Sun Belt (Georgia St > AR Little Rock > Texas St > GA Southern)
- Big Sky (S Utah > E Washington > Montana > N Colorado)
- Patriot (Colgate Boston U > American > Bucknell)
- Big West (UC Irvine Hawaii UC Santa Barbara)
- Big South (Winthrop Radford Charleston S)
- Southland (Stephen F Austin Sam Houston St > Nicholls St > Abilene Christian)
- Colonial Athletic (Col Charleston > Hofstra > Wm & Mary > Towson)
- Summit (S Dakota St > N Dakota St > Oral Roberts > S Dakota)
- Metro Atlantic Ath (Monmouth > Rider > Siena > Quinnipiac)
- Southwestern Ath (Prairie View Texas So Alcorn St > Southern)
- Northeast (Merrimack > Robert Morris > Sacred Heart > St. Francis PA)
- Mid-Eastern Ath (Norfolk St > NC Central > NC A&T > Morgan St)
There are 25 mid-major conference tournaments which will all hand out auto-bids. Only a few of them currently feature teams likely to receive at-large bids but as we’ve seen time and time again, that number will grow to 5, 6 or perhaps 7. Should any of those teams (namely Gonzaga, Houston, San Diego St) lose in their conference tournaments, the bubble will shrink. Don’t be surprised if E Tennessee St, Yale and/or Northern Iowa join them over the next few weeks.
I’ll check back in a few weeks from now to update the board. Now, let’s get a glimpse at how the bracket might play out if it was built by the committee today.
Projected Bracket prior to auto-bids
