Here’s a look at Week 16 fantasy football rankings from our most accurate experts so far this season. These rankings are for standard scoring fantasy football formats.
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| Rank | Quarterbacks | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | at CLE | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | SEA | vs. ARI | 1 | 4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 21.2 |
| 3 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | at TB | 2 | 4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 20.8 |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | at CHI | 4 | 5 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 19.7 |
| 5 | Jameis Winston | TB | vs. HOU | 3 | 9 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 19.5 |
| 6 | Drew Brees | NO | at TEN | 3 | 8 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 18.7 |
| 7 | Matt Ryan | ATL | vs. JAC | 5 | 15 | 7.6 | 1.3 | 18.3 |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | DAL | at PHI | 4 | 11 | 8.2 | 1 | 18.3 |
| 9 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | vs. NO | 6 | 17 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 17.8 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | ARI | at SEA | 7 | 15 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 17.8 |
| 11 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | vs. CIN | 10 | 16 | 11.7 | 0.8 | 17.2 |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | at MIN | 9 | 19 | 11.8 | 1.5 | 17.1 |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | vs. GB | 7 | 14 | 12.5 | 1.1 | 16.7 |
| 14 | Carson Wentz | PHI | vs. DAL | 7 | 16 | 13.9 | 1 | 16.6 |
| 15 | Philip Rivers | LAC | vs. OAK | 9 | 18 | 14.4 | 1.1 | 16.5 |
| 16 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | vs. LAR | 14 | 19 | 15.9 | 0.7 | 16.4 |
| 17 | Gardner Minshew | JAC | at ATL | 13 | 23 | 18.4 | 1.9 | 16.3 |
| 18 | Mitch Trubisky | CHI | vs. KC | 15 | 22 | 18.6 | 2 | 16 |
| 19 | Andy Dalton | CIN | at MIA | 17 | 23 | 19 | 1.4 | 15.8 |
| 20 | Josh Allen | BUF | at NE | 17 | 27 | 20.8 | 2.6 | 15 |
Ryan Tannehill (TEN)
Since taking over as the starter in Week 7, Tannehill has been fantasy football’s fourth-highest scoring quarterback on a points per game basis, behind only Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, and Drew Brees. There’s been just one game he’s scored less than 18.9 fantasy points, though he still threw for two touchdowns in that game. The Saints are coming off a game where they looked dominant on defense, though it was more of a poor showing by Jacoby Brissett than anything, as the Saints generated pressure on just 27.8 percent of dropbacks. The prior week it was just 23.1 percent. Why is that significant? Because the Saints had generated pressure on at least 31 percent of dropbacks in each of their first 12 games, but after losing Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on the defensive line in Week 14, their numbers have fallen. Brissett was just the sixth quarterback who failed to finish top-15 against the Saints, joining Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, and Jameis Winston on that list. That’s a pretty solid guest list, which just goes to show how inconsistent/unpredictable the Saints have been on defense, as they’ve allowed six other quarterbacks 18-plus fantasy points and top-12 finishes, including Jimmy Garoppolo‘s 349-yard, four-touchdown outburst. We also need to factor in that they’ve allowed 5.79 yards per carry to quarterbacks (second-highest mark in the league), as Tannehill is running the ball quite a bit. You likely wouldn’t be where you are without Tannehill, so keep the party rolling with him as a middling QB1.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA)
He’s now finished with at least 20.4 fantasy points in five of his last nine games, including three of his last four. The lack of run-game has propped-up Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts, which is huge for his fantasy floor, as is the fact that he’s rushed for at least 33 yards in three of the last four games, another avenue for fantasy success. The Bengals have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, though they’re worse than that number suggests, as quarterbacks have averaged just 29.7 pass attempts per game against them with all the rushing success. We know by now that the Dolphins running backs aren’t going to succeed on the ground (3.03 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns as a team), and it’s why Fitzpatrick has totaled at least 37 pass attempts in each of the last five games. The 8.12 yards per attempt the Bengals have allowed is tied for the third-highest mark in the league. The 4.33 percent touchdown-rate is low for a team allowing this type of yardage, though I’d attribute that to the fact that they can’t stop the run on the goal-line. It’s really odd, though. There have been just four quarterbacks who’ve finished outside the top-16 against them, and all four of them have come over the last four games. It’s highly unlikely they’ve changed that much as a team that’s won just one game all year. Fitzpatrick is on the high-end QB2 radar and can be considered a solid streaming option with a stable floor.
Carson Wentz (PHI)
Despite all the wide receiver issues Wentz and the Eagles have had over the last three weeks, he’s scored at least 19.9 fantasy points in each game, resulting in three top-10 finishes. Now on to play a Cowboys team he’s very familiar with. He was held to just 191 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting, which netted just 6.8 fantasy points, the worst total of the year for him. In two games against a Cowboys defense that was playing better last year, he completed 54-of-76 passes for 588 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, and was a top-10 quarterback in both games. Since Week 9, here are the quarterbacks the Cowboys have played along with their finishes: Kirk Cousins (QB9), Jeff Driskel (QB5), Tom Brady (QB17), Josh Allen (QB8), Mitch Trubisky (QB3), and Jared Goff (QB13). They aren’t playing very good football right now and have not generated the pressure they did earlier in the year. They’ve only allowed one quarterback more than two passing touchdowns all year, though it was Mitch Trubisky two weeks ago, who plays in a similar offense to the one Wentz/Pederson run. The injuries to his receivers do limit his upside, but Wentz should be considered a low-end QB1 this week.
Andy Dalton (CIN)
What did we really expect against the Patriots last week? Not only was it a brutal matchup, but he was without two of his top receivers in A.J. Green and Auden Tate. There have been some reports about Green potentially returning this week, though don’t believe it until you see it. The Dolphins have been a matchup to target with streamers, as they’ve now allowed multiple touchdown passes to 12-of-14 quarterbacks. Eli Manning‘s QB23 finish last week was just the third time this year a quarterback has finished outside the top-16 against them, with the first two being Sam Darnold and Brian Hoyer. The only team that’s allowed more fantasy points per pass attempt (removing all rushing production and points) is the Raiders. The Cardinals are third on that list, and they were a team Dalton was able to post 262 yards and two touchdowns against earlier this season. The reason the Dolphins haven’t allowed more fantasy points overall is due to quarterbacks averaging just 32.9 pass attempts against them. Week 15 was the first one Dalton threw fewer than 36 pass attempts, which obviously bodes well in this matchup. The issue is that Dalton hasn’t averaged more than 6.9 yards per attempt in each of his last nine starts, which obviously limits his ceiling. The only way I’d feel comfortable starting Dalton as anything more than a middling QB2 would be is if Green plays.
| Rank | Running Backs | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
| 1 | Chris Carson | SEA | vs. ARI | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 2 | Christian McCaffrey | CAR | at IND | 2 | 3 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 15.7 |
| 3 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | at PHI | 2 | 6 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 15.6 |
| 4 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | at WAS | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0.9 | 15.4 |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | TEN | vs. NO | 5 | 6 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 15.4 |
| 6 | Joe Mixon | CIN | at MIA | 1 | 8 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 14.4 |
| 7 | Leonard Fournette | JAC | at ATL | 5 | 10 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 13.8 |
| 8 | Nick Chubb | CLE | vs. BAL | 6 | 13 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 13.6 |
| 9 | Mark Ingram | BAL | at CLE | 6 | 16 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 12.9 |
| 10 | Alvin Kamara | NO | at TEN | 9 | 17 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 12.7 |
| 11 | Marlon Mack | IND | vs. CAR | 7 | 19 | 11.6 | 2.7 | 12.7 |
| 12 | Aaron Jones | GB | at MIN | 10 | 15 | 12.8 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 13 | Melvin Gordon | LAC | vs. OAK | 7 | 19 | 13.5 | 1.9 | 12.2 |
| 14 | Miles Sanders | PHI | vs. DAL | 10 | 18 | 15 | 1.9 | 12.2 |
| 15 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | vs. OAK | 11 | 19 | 15 | 2.5 | 12.2 |
| 16 | Todd Gurley | LAR | at SF | 8 | 20 | 15.6 | 1.6 | 12.2 |
| 17 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | vs. JAC | 9 | 24 | 16.5 | 4.6 | 11.9 |
| 18 | Phillip Lindsay | DEN | vs. DET | 10 | 23 | 17.9 | 2.4 | 11.5 |
| 19 | Mike Boone | MIN | vs. GB | 13 | 27 | 18.5 | 4.1 | 11.4 |
| 20 | James Conner | PIT | at NYJ | 14 | 26 | 20.3 | 1.6 | 11.3 |
| 21 | Raheem Mostert | SF | vs. LAR | 18 | 29 | 21.8 | 1.7 | 11.2 |
| 22 | Kenyan Drake | ARI | at SEA | 19 | 25 | 21.8 | 1.4 | 11.1 |
| 23 | Adrian Peterson | WAS | vs. NYG | 18 | 28 | 23.8 | 3.2 | 11 |
| 24 | Le’Veon Bell | NYJ | vs. PIT | 21 | 25 | 23.9 | 1.7 | 10.8 |
| 25 | Devin Singletary | BUF | at NE | 22 | 30 | 24.9 | 1.4 | 9.9 |
| 26 | David Montgomery | CHI | vs. KC | 22 | 29 | 25 | 1.9 | 9.5 |
| 27 | DeAndre Washington | OAK | at LAC | 18 | 52 | 26.5 | 8.1 | 9.2 |
| 28 | Sony Michel | NE | vs. BUF | 26 | 31 | 27.9 | 1.1 | 9.1 |
| 29 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | vs. BAL | 28 | 29 | 28.5 | 0.5 | 8.9 |
| 30 | Patrick Laird | MIA | vs. CIN | 29 | 40 | 31.5 | 1.2 | 8.7 |
| 31 | Carlos Hyde | HOU | at TB | 27 | 36 | 32 | 1.9 | 8.7 |
| 32 | Boston Scott | PHI | vs. DAL | 30 | 35 | 32.6 | 1.7 | 8.3 |
| 33 | Ronald Jones II | TB | vs. HOU | 31 | 37 | 33.3 | 1 | 8.3 |
| 34 | James White | NE | vs. BUF | 32 | 34 | 33.4 | 0.5 | 7.2 |
| 35 | Royce Freeman | DEN | vs. DET | 30 | 39 | 36.3 | 1.2 | 7.2 |
| 36 | Tarik Cohen | CHI | vs. KC | 35 | 37 | 36.5 | 0.7 | 6.7 |
| 37 | Latavius Murray | NO | at TEN | 31 | 39 | 36.8 | 1.5 | 6.6 |
| 38 | Jamaal Williams | GB | at MIN | 32 | 43 | 38.8 | 1.1 | 6.5 |
| 39 | Peyton Barber | TB | vs. HOU | 38 | 46 | 40.3 | 1.9 | 6.4 |
| 40 | Matt Breida | SF | vs. LAR | 40 | 46 | 42.5 | 1.4 | 6.3 |
| 41 | LeSean McCoy | KC | at CHI | 40 | 50 | 42.8 | 2.4 | 6.2 |
| 42 | Duke Johnson | HOU | at TB | 38 | 47 | 43.1 | 1.1 | 6.1 |
| 43 | Kerryon Johnson | DET | at DEN | 29 | 55 | 45 | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| 44 | Gus Edwards | BAL | at CLE | 41 | 56 | 45.1 | 4.1 | 5.4 |
| 45 | Myles Gaskin | MIA | vs. CIN | 31 | 62 | 47 | 6.3 | 5.1 |
| 46 | David Johnson | ARI | at SEA | 44 | 53 | 47.5 | 2 | 5 |
| 47 | Nyheim Hines | IND | vs. CAR | 48 | 58 | 49.3 | 1.3 | 4.7 |
| 48 | Tevin Coleman | SF | vs. LAR | 42 | 58 | 50.1 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| 49 | Jalen Richard | OAK | at LAC | 39 | 58 | 50.6 | 3.5 | 4.7 |
| 50 | Rex Burkhead | NE | vs. BUF | 47 | 66 | 50.9 | 2.7 | 4.5 |
Joe Mixon (CIN)
Going back to the start of Week 8, Mixon has accumulated 671 yards on 147 carries (4.6 yards per carry) with three touchdowns, and another 151 yards and one touchdown through the air. That’s a span of seven games where he’s averaged 23.4 touches with 117.4 total yards and 0.57 touchdowns per game. He’s been playing like a man on a mission, as there appears to be multiple highlight reel plays every week. The matchup against the Dolphins is one of the best he could ask for, as they’ve allowed 178.3 total yards per game to running backs this year, including 169 total yards and three touchdowns to the Giants backfield last week. There hasn’t been a game this season where they’ve allowed fewer than 114 total yards to opposing running backs. This bodes well for Mixon, who’s accounted for 83.2 percent of the Bengals running back touches over the last seven games. Saquon Barkley was the ninth running back who’s posted top-12 numbers against them. This is your reminder that they’ve played just 14 games. Mixon should be locked-in as an RB1 this week and considered in cash-game lineups.
Mike Boone (MIN)
If Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are still out, we are talking about 20 touches in a terrific Vikings running game from a ridiculous athlete and against one of the worst run defenses in football. If he is the starter, you can take it to the bank that he’ll be ranked among the top five running backs. I’d much rather use the #1 waiver priority on that kind of week-winning upside than a WR3 like Perriman.
Kenyan Drake (ARI)
It’s safe to say Drake has the workhorse job on lockdown after his four-touchdown outburst in Week 15. He was responsible for 23-of-26 touches available to Cardinals running backs and he didn’t disappoint. Now on to play a Seahawks team that’s allowed a rushing touchdown every 18.8 carries, which ranks as the second-most often in the league behind only the Panthers. Despite seeing the fourth-fewest carries (18.8 per game), they’ve allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (14). Both of these teams average over 129 total plays per game, which is above the league average, so we should expect a lot of plays, though teams have called a run play on just 36.1 percent of plays against the Seahawks, which ranks as the third-lowest percentage in all of football. This means touches are hard to come by against them, as highlighted by the 24.4 touches per game they’ve faced, which ranks as the seventh-fewest. There have been just nine running backs who’ve totaled at least 15 touches against them. Each of them finished as a top-20 running back, so if you believe Drake hits that mark, he should be played as a mid-tier RB2. But we cannot ignore the risk of him falling below that mark, as he did the prior week against the Steelers, though he got close with 14 total touches. No matter which way you slice it, Drake should be looked at as a low-end RB2 who has upside for more considering how inefficient the Seahawks have been at stopping running backs, as the 0.97 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the third-highest mark in the league.
Raheem Mostert (SF)
Of the 27 opportunities available to the 49ers running backs last week, Mostert tallied 16 of them, giving him the clear-cut lead job while Breida finished with six, and Coleman five. You still need them to rack-up the touches in order for Mostert to be guaranteed 14-plus touches, and that’s a number you really need him to hit this week against the Rams. There hasn’t been a running back who’s finished better than RB40 without seeing at least 14 touches against them. Granted, there have been 17 running backs to hit that mark, but for the 49ers backfield, nothing should be a given. Back in the Week 6 matchup with these two teams, the 49ers running backs racked up 35 carries and six receptions. They weren’t particularly efficient with them (137 total yards, one touchdown), but with that type of volume, you feel pretty comfortable. The Rams opponents have averaged 67.1 plays per game (3rd-highest) which has led to a rock-solid 29.1 touches per game for running backs. They’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points per opportunity, so it’s not like it’s a smash spot that you can’t miss, though the Cowboys stuck it to them last week while racking up over 300 total yards and three touchdowns last week. Prior to that game, the Rams had allowed the fifth-fewest points per opportunity. We have to consider it just a bad showing for them given the much larger sample size of dominating performances they’ve had, and knowing their playoff hopes are on the line, expect them to show up for this game. Mostert should be in lineups as a low-end RB2 this week and is the only 49ers running back who belongs near a fantasy lineup.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Rankings
| Rank | Wide Receivers | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
| 1 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | at TB | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13.9 |
| 2 | Michael Thomas | NO | at TEN | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 12.8 |
| 3 | Julio Jones | ATL | vs. JAC | 1 | 5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 12.2 |
| 4 | Tyreek Hill | KC | at CHI | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 11.7 |
| 5 | Davante Adams | GB | at MIN | 3 | 6 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 10.5 |
| 6 | D.J. Moore | CAR | at IND | 5 | 12 | 8 | 1.9 | 10.5 |
| 7 | Devante Parker | MIA | vs. CIN | 6 | 24 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 10.3 |
| 8 | Keenan Allen | LAC | vs. OAK | 6 | 16 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 10.2 |
| 9 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | vs. ARI | 6 | 12 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 10.2 |
| 10 | Allen Robinson | CHI | vs. KC | 7 | 14 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 10 |
| 11 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | vs. DET | 5 | 14 | 11.3 | 1.9 | 9.9 |
| 12 | Amari Cooper | DAL | at PHI | 7 | 15 | 11.6 | 2.4 | 9.8 |
| 13 | Stefon Diggs | MIN | vs. GB | 6 | 19 | 14.1 | 3.4 | 9.7 |
| 14 | A.J. Brown | TEN | vs. NO | 10 | 27 | 14.1 | 1.7 | 9.7 |
| 15 | Julian Edelman | NE | vs. BUF | 9 | 30 | 15.6 | 2.7 | 9.6 |
| 16 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | vs. NYG | 14 | 21 | 16.6 | 1.7 | 9.6 |
| 17 | Robert Woods | LAR | at SF | 9 | 25 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 9.5 |
| 18 | Breshad Perriman | TB | vs. HOU | 13 | 30 | 18.9 | 1.5 | 9.5 |
| 19 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | at SF | 17 | 27 | 20.3 | 2.4 | 9.4 |
| 20 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | at MIA | 14 | 31 | 21 | 5.6 | 9.4 |
| 21 | Will Fuller | HOU | at TB | 17 | 29 | 21.8 | 2.8 | 9.4 |
| 22 | Kenny Golladay | DET | at DEN | 15 | 33 | 22 | 4.4 | 9.3 |
| 23 | Jarvis Landry | CLE | vs. BAL | 10 | 30 | 22.3 | 2.5 | 9 |
| 24 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | vs. ARI | 16 | 32 | 22.3 | 2.5 | 8.8 |
| 25 | Mike Williams | LAC | vs. OAK | 20 | 43 | 22.8 | 0.8 | 8.8 |
| 26 | Adam Thielen | MIN | vs. GB | 18 | 31 | 24.3 | 3.3 | 8.7 |
| 27 | Christian Kirk | ARI | at SEA | 18 | 32 | 26.4 | 2.2 | 8.7 |
| 28 | Michael Gallup | DAL | at PHI | 22 | 36 | 26.8 | 2.4 | 8.6 |
| 29 | Anthony Miller | CHI | vs. KC | 26 | 34 | 29.4 | 1.8 | 8.3 |
| 30 | Odell Beckham Jr. | CLE | vs. BAL | 20 | 34 | 29.9 | 1.4 | 8.3 |
| 31 | T.Y. Hilton | IND | vs. CAR | 24 | 38 | 30.8 | 3.6 | 8.3 |
| 32 | Darius Slayton | NYG | at WAS | 25 | 38 | 33.4 | 3.8 | 8.2 |
| 33 | Emmanuel Sanders | SF | vs. LAR | 29 | 37 | 33.6 | 1.9 | 8.2 |
| 34 | Sterling Shepard | NYG | at WAS | 26 | 39 | 34.6 | 3.3 | 8.2 |
| 35 | John Brown | BUF | at NE | 32 | 39 | 35.1 | 1.5 | 8.2 |
| 36 | Deebo Samuel | SF | vs. LAR | 31 | 50 | 36 | 2.3 | 8 |
| 37 | Marquise Brown | BAL | at CLE | 34 | 46 | 37.6 | 4.3 | 7.4 |
| 38 | Robby Anderson | NYJ | vs. PIT | 23 | 44 | 38.4 | 3.5 | 7.3 |
| 39 | Zach Pascal | IND | vs. CAR | 39 | 51 | 42 | 1 | 7.3 |
| 40 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | vs. PIT | 37 | 47 | 42.6 | 1.9 | 7.2 |
| 41 | Chris Conley | JAC | at ATL | 39 | 50 | 42.8 | 2.9 | 7.2 |
| 42 | Dede Westbrook | JAC | at ATL | 36 | 59 | 43.9 | 3.6 | 7.1 |
| 43 | Curtis Samuel | CAR | at IND | 32 | 58 | 44 | 5.6 | 6.9 |
| 44 | James Washington | PIT | at NYJ | 34 | 61 | 44.5 | 4.2 | 6.9 |
| 45 | Tyrell Williams | OAK | at LAC | 44 | 58 | 46.4 | 3 | 6.8 |
| 46 | Sammy Watkins | KC | at CHI | 43 | 52 | 46.5 | 1.9 | 6.6 |
| 47 | Greg Ward | PHI | vs. DAL | 30 | 58 | 47.4 | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| 48 | Justin Watson | TB | vs. HOU | 39 | 65 | 48.4 | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| 49 | Golden Tate | NYG | at WAS | 38 | 55 | 48.8 | 2 | 6.5 |
| 50 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | at NYJ | 38 | 60 | 50.6 | 3.8 | 6.4 |
| 51 | Cole Beasley | BUF | at NE | 49 | 58 | 51.1 | 2.1 | 6.3 |
| 52 | Danny Amendola | DET | at DEN | 41 | 60 | 51.6 | 3.6 | 6.3 |
| 53 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | at SEA | 42 | 62 | 52 | 4 | 6.2 |
| 54 | Kenny Stills | HOU | at TB | 46 | 62 | 52.5 | 2.1 | 6 |
| 55 | Russell Gage | ATL | vs. JAC | 47 | 63 | 52.9 | 1.6 | 5.9 |
| 56 | John Ross | CIN | at MIA | 53 | 69 | 57.1 | 3.3 | 5.7 |
| 57 | Corey Davis | TEN | vs. NO | 56 | 63 | 58.5 | 1.7 | 5.7 |
| 58 | Brandin Cooks | LAR | at SF | 55 | 65 | 59.1 | 1.2 | 5.6 |
| 59 | Allen Hurns | MIA | vs. CIN | 54 | 73 | 60.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| 60 | Allen Lazard | GB | at MIN | 57 | 72 | 62.6 | 3.6 | 5.3 |
Devante Parker (MIA)
After getting cleared from his concussion late in the week, many were torn on whether they should play Parker. He didn’t disappoint, totaling four catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Since the start of Week 4, Parker has finished as a top-32 receiver in every game he didn’t get concussed in. That’s 10 straight games of a WR3 floor with multiple top-10 games mixed-in. Now on to play the Bengals, who’ve actually allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the year. How is that possible? They’ve faced an average of just 16.4 targets per game, which certainly helps, as that’s the third-lowest mark in the league. The 9.05 yards per target they’ve allowed ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, so volume is key here. Parker has totaled at least six targets in each of the last eight non-concussion games, including five games with 10-plus targets. He’ll see a combination of all three Bengals cornerbacks this week, as they don’t do any shadowing and Parker doesn’t line up at one spot more than 40 percent of the time. He should remain in lineups as a stable WR2 in Week 16.
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
It was good to see Sutton finish with 79 yards last week, as the weather conditions weren’t exactly friendly. He’s now tallied at least 72 yards and/or a touchdown in 11-of-14 games despite playing with three different quarterbacks. The 10 targets he saw in Week 15 were a season-high. Crazy, right? Now on to a matchup with the Lions who’ve allowed 14 different wide receivers finish as top-20 options against them, including eight inside the top 10. He’s going to see Darius Slay for much of the game, and though he’s their best cornerback, he hasn’t been untouchable this season. He’s allowed just a 57 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but he’s also allowed 14.4 yards per reception, so receivers are getting over the top on him. Sutton’s 427 yards on targets that travel 20-plus yards in the air rank fifth in the NFL. There’s been just one game this year where the Lions didn’t allow a top-28 wide receiver performance, which is an amazing floor for Sutton. Plug him in as a solid WR2 and expect him to overcome the matchup with Slay.
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
He only saw five targets last week, but that was enough for him to demolish the Eagles secondary, catching every one for 130 yards and a touchdown, highlighted by a 75-yard catch-and-run. He’s now totaled at least 69 yards and/or a touchdown in four of his last five games, so maybe things are coming together for him and Haskins? The lack of targets to go around is worrisome, but McLaurin has earned the right to be trusted. The Giants cut their best cornerback prior to last week’s game, which surely won’t help them slow down receivers. They’ve already allowed more fantasy points per target (2.06) than any other team in the NFL. Yes, that includes the Cardinals and Dolphins. Receivers have been able to snag 66.2 percent of passes that come their way at 14.5 yards a pop, while bringing in a touchdown every 13.5 targets. That’s with Janoris Jenkins on the roster. The duo of DeAndre Baker and Sam Beal have allowed 50-of-86 passing for 807 yards and eight touchdowns in their coverage, good enough for a QB Rating just short of 120. McLaurin should be in lineups as a high-end WR3 with top-10 upside, though we can’t put him there due to his inconsistent quarterback play.
Breshad Perriman (TB)
Although Perriman is nowhere near the football player that Miller is, Perriman happens to be in a passing offense that is quite literally twice as competent. He, of course, won’t score three touchdowns again this week, but he should see 5+ targets for the fourth straight week, which should go a long way versus the Texans’ lackluster secondary. Perriman has the speed to take any play to the house and we know Winston won’t hesitate to target him downfield.
| Rank | Tight Ends | Team | Opp | Best | Worst | Avg | Std Dev | Proj. Pts |
| 1 | George Kittle | SF | vs. LAR | 1 | 3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 9.9 |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | KC | at CHI | 1 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 9.8 |
| 3 | Zach Ertz | PHI | vs. DAL | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 9.3 |
| 4 | Mark Andrews | BAL | at CLE | 4 | 10 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 8.8 |
| 5 | Darren Waller | OAK | at LAC | 5 | 8 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 7.8 |
| 6 | Hunter Henry | LAC | vs. OAK | 4 | 10 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 7.8 |
| 7 | Austin Hooper | ATL | vs. JAC | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 7.5 |
| 8 | Jared Cook | NO | at TEN | 4 | 10 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 6.8 |
| 9 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | at SF | 4 | 13 | 8.8 | 2 | 6.6 |
| 10 | Jacob Hollister | SEA | vs. ARI | 6 | 15 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 6.3 |
| 11 | O.J. Howard | TB | vs. HOU | 9 | 12 | 10.4 | 1 | 6.1 |
| 12 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | vs. DAL | 10 | 13 | 11.5 | 0.7 | 5.8 |
| 13 | Jack Doyle | IND | vs. CAR | 11 | 15 | 13.9 | 1.1 | 5.7 |
| 14 | Noah Fant | DEN | vs. DET | 12 | 19 | 14.1 | 1.9 | 5.6 |
| 15 | Greg Olsen | CAR | at IND | 12 | 20 | 16.3 | 2 | 5.5 |
| 16 | Mike Gesicki | MIA | vs. CIN | 15 | 19 | 16.9 | 0.9 | 5.1 |
| 17 | Kyle Rudolph | MIN | vs. GB | 14 | 24 | 17.1 | 1.8 | 4.9 |
| 18 | Jonnu Smith | TEN | vs. NO | 14 | 21 | 17.5 | 1 | 4.9 |
| 19 | Cameron Brate | TB | vs. HOU | 12 | 23 | 19.5 | 2.8 | 4.8 |
| 20 | Jason Witten | DAL | at PHI | 19 | 26 | 20.6 | 0.5 | 4.7 |
Mark Andrew (BAL)
Despite coming into the Jets game with a highly questionable tag, Andrews saw seven targets, turning them into 4/52/1. There could’ve been more if not for a few penalties, but his owners should be happy with the outcome. Knowing he’ll have had 10 days rest; he should be ready to rock against the Browns this week. Andrews doesn’t see elite volume like Kelce, Ertz, or Kittle, but he’s been as efficient as possible while averaging 13.1 yards per catch and a touchdown every 11.1 targets. The Browns are the ideal opponent for someone like him, as they’ve allowed just the 12th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year, though it’s only because they’ve faced the sixth-fewest targets. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 1.99 PPR points, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, behind only the Cardinals and Jaguars. Andrews tallied four catches for 31 yards and a touchdown against them back in Week 4 when he was highly questionable with a different injury that week. Knowing the Browns have allowed three tight ends to total 19-plus PPR points against them, you aren’t even contemplating sitting Andrews, who is a rock-solid TE1.
Hunter Henry (LAC)
After seeing an elite target share in each of his seven games, Henry has fallen by the wayside in the Chargers offense, as he’s seen just nine targets over the last three weeks. He’s caught just two passes in each of those games and hasn’t totaled 40 yards in any of them. Does that automatically mean he’s got no chance of returning to his big role in the offense? No. It just simply means you have to understand the risk associated with him and if you have someone else that’s safer, you may want to go that route. The Raiders are a team he caught four passes for 30 yards and a touchdown against back in Week 10, though that was when he had his larger role in the offense. After being the worst team in the league against tight ends last year, the Raiders are in the bottom-six this year. They’ve allowed nine different tight ends to finish with double-digit PPR points against them, though a lot has relied upon big plays and touchdowns. The 63.0 percent completion-rate they’re allowing to them is actually the best in the league, but the 12.81 yards per reception ranks second-most, while the touchdown they allow every 11.1 targets is the third-most often. Henry should be considered a mid-to-low-end TE1 with his decreased role the last three games, but he should win the tiebreaker if choosing between him and another potential streamer.
Jacob Hollister (SEA)
When in doubt, play the TE against the Cardinals. This narrative has continued to work well this season, with Arizona surrendering nearly 20 fantasy points per game to TEs this year, which is by far the most. While Jacob Hollister has slowed down, he is still one of the top weapons on this offense, especially in the red zone. And now, he has the opportunity to see another target or two per game, with Josh Gordon out indefinitely. While Gordon has not been a great producer, he is a big body and could be used as a red zone threat. With him gone, Hollister is again the no-brainer best red zone receiving weapon in Seattle, who has a great chance to catch a touchdown against the worst defense against TEs this season.
O.J. Howard (TB)
Ever since their bye, Howard has been utilized much more in the passing game. He now has 18 targets in the past three weeks and has nearly twice as many air yards as George Kittle in that time. Howard has another solid matchup this week versus Houston’s lousy secondary, and with Mike Evans still out, it should lead to another solid performance.
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