Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 47.0
Line: SF by 11.0

QBs
Matt Ryan: We’ve seen Ryan’s life without Calvin Ridley before, and he did well, but that was back when Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator. It also doesn’t help to know Ryan has topped 16.6 fantasy points just once since Week 6. He may have caught the 49ers at the right time though, as they just lost defensive end Dee Ford and cornerback Richard Sherman for multiple weeks. Does this make the 49ers defense one that can be attacked through the air? Potentially, as losing three top-tier Pro-Bowl-quality starters will do that (don’t forget about linebacker Kwon Alexander on injured reserve). Not many realize it, but here are the last six quarterbacks who’ve played against the 49ers with their fantasy totals: Kyler Murray (21.0), Russell Wilson (16.6), Kyler Murray (26.7), Aaron Rodgers (9.5), Lamar Jackson (24.3), and Drew Brees (40.1). To be fair, a lot of those quarterbacks were mobile, something Ryan obviously isn’t. He’s also been sacked 39 times despite missing a game. Brees was just the first quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns against them, while there’s been just one other quarterback who’s topped 241 passing yards. Going into San Francisco isn’t an easy place to play, either. Even before they were considered the elite defense they are now, they allowed just one quarterback to top 19 fantasy points while at home last year. The injuries to Ford and Sherman help, but Ryan is still just a mid-to-high-end QB2. *Update* There have been even more injuries reported to the 49ers defense, only increasing Ryan’s appeal to the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 area. 

Jimmy Garoppolo: It’s been a very hit-or-miss year for Garoppolo to this point, as he started out the year extremely shaky, but appeared to have his confidence restored when the team traded for Emmanuel Sanders. Does one wide receiver make that much of a difference? You tell me.

Now, to be fair, while he’s changed, so has the Falcons defense. Ever since their bye week, they’re a different team. They’ve held the combination of Drew Brees (twice), Jameis Winston, and Kyle Allen (twice) to just five passing touchdowns over the last five games. What do they all have in common? They’re all in the Falcons division. That makes a big difference, as they know those teams very well. It’s still the same scheme/personnel who was horrendous for the previous 24 games. Still, we do have to take note of their recent surge on defense. The real issue with Garoppolo is that if the Falcons have gotten better or he doesn’t have it going through the air, he bombs your fantasy lineup, which is why more than half his games have netted 13 or less fantasy points (including three with Sanders). Because of that, he stays in the QB2 territory, though he’s towards the high end of that.

RBs
Devonta Freeman: Since returning to the lineup, Freeman has netted a rock-solid 43 opportunities in two games while Brian Hill has gone into the clear backup role where he’s totaled 16 opportunities in that time. It was a mixed-bag of results, as the Saints shut them down – as expected – while the Panthers allowed Freeman to rack up 94 yards and a touchdown. It was his first rushing touchdown of the season, which is crazy considering the Falcons are in the top half of the league in scoring. The 49ers rank as the No. 2 defense against fantasy running backs, but that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story, as they’ve now allowed a top-24 running back in six of their last seven games, including five of them to finish as top-18 options. They’ve allowed a healthy 4.29 yards per carry on the year, though their opponents haven’t been able to stick the run as much as they would probably like (19.8 carries per game), and it doesn’t help that running backs have scored just three total touchdowns against them all year. Knowing Freeman has been allergic to the end zone, this isn’t a good thing at all. Even if they fall behind, the production through the air has been abysmal for running backs, too, as they’ve allowed just 4.67 yards per target to backs, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. Add it all up and they’re allowing the second-fewest points per opportunity in the league. Freeman is just a low-end RB2 this week.

Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman: We all know Mostert had another good game in Week 14, but does it make us feel any better about starting him as anything more than an RB3? Knowing he got just 12 touches, probably not. The 49ers offense has gone a lot more pass-heavy since getting Emmanuel Sanders, and that’s going to impact this backfield in a massive way. They had totaled at least 32 touches between them in each of the first 10 weeks of the season, but over the last four weeks, the running backs have totaled 24-22-28-22. That’s not nearly enough for three running backs splitting work. The Falcons opponents have averaged 27.4 running back touches per game, so not too far off base from where the 49ers have been. In terms of efficiency, the Falcons have been somewhat middle-of-the-pack against the run, not too great, but also not too bad. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, they’ve allowed just two running backs to catch more than four passes against them. Speaking of McCaffrey, he’s played this improved Falcons defense twice in the last four weeks and didn’t score in either game. He and Alvin Kamara are the only running backs who finished top-24 against the Falcons without a touchdown. This all comes back to how comfortable you feel with the touch-split that’s bound to take place. The good news is that this game has a relatively high total, the 49ers are double-digit favorites, and they’re at home, which typically means a lot of rushing attempts. Mostert should be considered a high-end RB3, while Breida slides in the low-end RB3 conversation. As for Coleman, this may be his old team he’s about to play, but with just nine touches over the last two weeks, he’s on benches.

WRs
Julio Jones: It’s been a while since Jones was without either Mohamed Sanu or Calvin Ridley, though his owners won’t mind the target bump he’ll get. There have been four No. 1-type targets who’ve seen double-digit targets against the 49ers (with Richard Sherman, who’s out). They allowed Michael Thomas 11/134/1, Davante Adams 7/43/1, Tyler Boyd 10/122/0, and D.K. Metcalf 6/70/0, so they haven’t been impenetrable. The loss of Sherman is massive, as they rely on him heavily in their zone-heavy scheme, and not only that, but nickel cornerback K’Waun Williams suffered a concussion during last week’s game. That means Ahkello Witherspoon, Emmanuel Moseley, and D.J. Reed will be asked to step in and start for the 49ers. Witherspoon was considered a bust until this year, Moseley is a second-year former undrafted free agent, while Reed was a fifth-round pick last year who’s been burned in the rare occasion he takes the field. You’re starting Jones with zero fear about the matchup.

Russell Gage: Many will want to gravitate to Gage with Calvin Ridley out for the year, but it really shouldn’t change his role all that much. He plays slot-only and was on the field for just 35-of-69 snaps last week despite Ridley’s departure. His matchup may be upgraded, though. Nickel cornerback K’Waun Williams suffered a concussion last week and his replacement would be D.J. Reed. He’s the 49ers fifth-round pick from last year who’s allowed 20-of-25 passing for 212 yards and three touchdowns in his limited playing time. Knowing Matt Ryan may be under pressure, we could see Gage be a safety valve in the shorter area of the field. He’s still nothing more than a low-upside WR4/5-type option, though he should have a decent floor.

Emmanuel Sanders: Now that Sanders is full healthy, he should be trusted in lineups on a weekly basis. Many thought he was struggling to produce in the run-first offense, but he was playing through his rib cartilage injury on limited snaps for multiple weeks. The Falcons secondary is next up on the list, and while they’ve been better as of late, they’ve still allowed at least one top-40 wide receiver in every single game they’ve played this year, which is essentially a low-end WR3. At least one per game. That’s hard to do. They’ve allowed 12 receivers to finish as top-24 options, with six inside the top-10, so there’s a ceiling, too. There’s not one particular cornerback who’ll be covering Sanders, who moves all over the formation. On a per-target basis, the Falcons secondary as a whole has allowed the second-most PPR points per target (2.04) to wide receivers. He should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 in this matchup.

Deebo Samuel: With Sanders on the team, Samuel has emerged as the ideal No. 2 receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Some may call him the No. 1 but Sanders is the one coordinators are most concerned with. Still, Samuel has seen seven-plus targets in four of the last six games and he’s continually produced, as you’d have to go back to Week 9 to find the last time he finished with less than 13.0 PPR points. He’s the WR11 since the start of Week 10. Shanahan has done a good job moving the receivers around, though Samuel’s primary matchup will be with Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed a 110.7 QB Rating in his coverage this year. Receivers have hauled in 68 percent of passes while averaging a healthy 13.6 yards per reception. Knowing the Falcons allow the second-most fantasy points per target, Samuel should be in lineups as a WR3 this week who comes with upside for more.

TEs
Austin Hooper: It was a disappointing return for Hooper in a plus-matchup where he caught just two passes for 32 yards on six targets against the Panthers. That’s still a solid target total and the loss of Ridley will clear up even more in the offense. We did see Jared Cook come down with 64 yards and two touchdowns to start the game against the 49ers, but he was concussed. The Saints then had Josh Hill come in and record two catches for four yards and a touchdown of his own. It was crazy because the 49ers had allowed a ridiculously low 4.79 yards per target coming into that game, but the injuries have started to add up on their defense. Even with that massive game to the Saints tight ends, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points to the position, and still allow the fewest yards per target (5.40) by more than half of a yard. But knowing they’re without Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, and Jaquiski Tartt, the matchup gets an upgrade. You want to start Hooper as a TE1 who’s probably locked into six-plus targets, though his ceiling may not be massive.

George Kittle: In the three games since returning from his broken ankle, Kittle has generated 18 targets, 14 receptions, 213 yards, and two touchdowns. We know he’s a stud but it’s good to see him playing well despite not being 100 percent. The Falcons haven’t really allowed a massive performance to a tight end, keeping their overall numbers down, but there have been eight tight ends who’ve scored at least 10.7 PPR points against them, including Ian Thomas‘ 16.7-point performance last week while filling in for Greg Olsen. There’ve been six tight ends who’ve seen more than four targets against the Falcons and all of them finished with at least 50 receiving yards. At home in a solid matchup, what’s not to like? Kittle should be locked-in as a high-end TE1.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 44.5
Line: MIN by 2.5

QBs
Kirk Cousins: It was kind of what we expected last week with Cousins, whose pass attempts were limited in the blowout win over the Lions. They’ll now head out on the road to play a Chargers team that’s allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year despite all the injuries they’ve dealt with. What really helps them limit the points in keeping their opponents off the field. The 57.8 plays per game is the lowest in the NFL and it’s led to just 29.4 pass attempts per game, which is also the lowest in the league. When you add in the fact that the Vikings are the third run-heaviest team in the league while running the ball 49.1 percent of the time, and it needs to be a highly efficient game for Cousins. The Chargers have not allowed a quarterback to average 7.23 yards per attempt since back in Week 7 and have not allowed more than two touchdown passes since Week 3, so the efficiency hasn’t been great for the Chargers’ opponents, either. Knowing Cousins doesn’t offer much on the ground, this is a matchup where he falls into the mid-to-low-end QB2 conversation because the ceiling/floor combo is just not good.

Philip Rivers: Did he come out of his slump last week? It certainly looked like it when he completed 16-of-22 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. Rivers has now thrown 31 or less pass attempts in five of the last six games, which is not great for a quarterback who has no mobility. The Vikings have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 7-of-13 games this year, though just two quarterbacks have hit the three-touchdown mark. The significant thing about them (Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott) was that they both threw at least 45 pass attempts, something highly unlikely with Rivers. It just so happens that Stafford and Prescott were the only two quarterbacks who’ve averaged more than 7.86 yards per attempt against them, so the yardage isn’t even great. Knowing Rivers has finished better than QB14 just twice since Week 4, feel free to avoid him as a streamer in this game.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: After being removed from the injury report all together, Cook appears set for a full workload this week. They decided to mix in Alexander Mattison more than usual last week, though being up 20-0 will allow them to rest their starter. This matchup with the Chargers kind of suits how the Vikings want to play. The Chargers opponents have averaged just 57.8 plays per game, which is the lowest-mark in the NFL, though their opponents have also run the ball 45.3 percent of the time, which is the fifth-highest mark in football. That’s allowed running backs to rack up 27.8 touches per game, which is a solid number. Efficiency hasn’t been bad against the Chargers, either. The 4.15 yards per carry and 5.86 yards per target are right in line with league averages. There have been just three running backs to total 18-plus carries against them, with each of them finishing as a top-eight running back on the week. Cook has hit that mark in eight games this year, including last week in an abbreviated role. You’re playing him as an RB1 in season-long leagues every week, though the low play-counts for the Chargers opponents might make me fade him in DFS cash games.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: Over the last five weeks, this duo has racked-up a massive 164 touches, or 32.8 per game. Gordon has 102 of them while Ekeler has 62, though Ekeler has kept pace and has actually scored 4.7 more PPR points in that time. After allowing just one team of running backs rush for more than 85 yards over the first eight games, the Vikings have started to show some vulnerability, allowing three of their last five opponents to total 103-plus rushing yards, including a 176-yard, two-touchdown performance from the combination of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. The downside is that outside that game against the Seahawks, they’ve allowed just three running backs to finish better than the RB20. They 123.5 total yards per game they’ve allowed to the position ranks 10th-best, so it’s highly unlikely we get two top-20 running backs against them this week. One thing to note is that running backs have totaled just 53 receptions against them, the third-lowest mark in the NFL, though it’s tough to put Ekeler in normal company considering he’s tallied at least four receptions in 10-of-13 games. The gamescript could go south, making Ekeler a bit more appealing than usual, which lowers Gordon into middling RB2 territory against the team that’s allowed just five rushing touchdowns this year. Ekeler can remain in lineups as a mid-to-low-end RB2 who might outperform Gordon.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: What shadow cornerback? Diggs manhandled Darius Slay last week to the tune of 6/92/0, highlighting just how dangerous he is, even in tough matchups. He gets another one this week against the Chargers and Casey Hayward. They’re a team who plays a ton of zone coverage which isn’t ideal for Diggs, who continually beats cornerbacks with his routes and has done better versus man coverage. They’ve allowed a massive 69.8 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, though the 11.2 yards per reception is the second-lowest mark in the league behind only the Bills. Another thing working against Diggs is that the Chargers have seen a league-low 15.8 targets per game to wide receivers, which stems from the fact that quarterbacks have averaged just 29.4 pass attempts per game. The Vikings rank 29th in pass attempts themselves (29.8 per game), so it doesn’t look great. Diggs should still be played as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 but there are a lot of factors working against him in this one.

Adam Thielen: There have been no positive reports about Thielen lately, so it’s best to prepare for life without him, as it’s been the last couple months. If anything changes, I’ll come back and update this by Saturday morning. *Update* Thielen has been removed from the injury report and will play this week, barring any unforeseen changes. There’s obviously a bit of risk starting him, but we know the player he’s been the last few years. He belongs in the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 conversation in his first game back, which happens to be a tough one. 

Keenan Allen: After a six-week stretch where Allen didn’t tally more than 61 yards, Allen has now totaled at least five catches and 68 yards in each of his last four games. You’d still have to go back to Week 3 to find the last time he hit the century mark, so the ceiling hasn’t been there. I’ve stated this before, but many didn’t believe it back then, so they likely don’t want to believe it now. The average top-36 performance last year required 11.7 PPR points. There have now been 21 wide receivers who’ve hit that mark against the Vikings, which is the most in the league. Right behind them are the Bucs (20) and Cardinals (19). The downside for Allen is that slot-heavy receivers have accounted for just three of those games. Mackensie Alexander has done a great job in the slot, allowing just 6.8 yards per target with one touchdown in his coverage this year, and that’s who Allen will see most of the time. Allen runs 53 percent of his routes from the slot, so he’ll get plus-matchups the other 47 percent. Keep him in lineups as a WR2.

Mike Williams: Alert the press! Williams scored a touchdown last week, his first of the year. He did so while seeing just three targets for the third time in the last five games, which is rather concerning. He’s now snagged a 40-plus-yard reception in six straight games. What’s the record on that? Despite the lack in elite targets, he’s totaled at least 55 yards in nine of his last 11 games. The Vikings have allowed an NFL-high 21 wide receivers to post WR3-type numbers this year, with 18 of those games going to primary perimeter receivers, which Williams is. The Vikings have also allowed the 14th-most pass plays that have gone for 40-plus yards. It seems like Xavier Rhodes will try to play this week, and that would be good news for Williams, as Rhodes has been among the worst cornerbacks in football. Not just that, but Mike Hughes also had to leave the game with an oblique injury last week. With everyone healthy, the Vikings have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to receivers. Williams should remain in lineups as a solid WR3 who has some serious upside.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr: As Thielen continues to miss games, the Vikings tight end duo continues to rack up targets. Smith is actually just four targets and 24 yards behind Rudolph on the year, but the five-touchdown gap is what has made the difference in fantasy. The Chargers are allowing just 3.85 receptions per game to tight ends, which is obviously not a whole lot to go around with a timeshare. They also got Derwin James back in the lineup a few weeks back, which certainly doesn’t hurt. There have been just four tight ends who hit double-digit PPR points, and each of them saw a minimum of five targets, as well as scored a touchdown. In a game we’re expecting limited pass attempts, it may be hard to guarantee that for Rudolph, who was out-targeted 4-2 last week by Smith. This is not a matchup you must attack with tight ends, making Rudolph a mediocre TE2 with Smith on the low-end TE2 radar.

Hunter Henry: Where did his elite target share go? He’s seen just seven targets over the last two weeks, which has limited him to just four catches and 49 yards in the two games combined. He did score a touchdown last week, salvaging his fantasy day, but it’s a tad worrisome. The targets are a problem against a team like the Vikings who’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per target to the position. Most would see they’ve allowed the 14th-most fantasy points and think it’s a good matchup, but they’ve allowed just 1.28 PPR points per target to tight ends, while no other team has allowed less than 1.48 points per target. It does help that they’ve allowed just one touchdown all season, but over a 123-target sample size, it’s probably best not to rely on them against the Vikings. Some will say Henry’s different than most tight ends – and that’s true – but the Vikings have played Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, and Zach Ertz this year. The only touchdown they allowed was to a backup tight end. Henry needs to be in lineups with all the uncertainty at the position but he’s more of a middling TE1 this week.

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 37.0
Line: PIT by 1.5

QBs
Josh Allen: It was the worst-case scenario for Allen owners who wanted to believe he could produce no matter the matchup, as he looked horrendous against a dominating Ravens defense. Just one week later, he finds himself in another tough situation. The Steelers are one of the teams who brings an even more potent pass-rush than the Ravens, who were able to sack Allen six times in Week 14. The Ravens have pressured the opposing quarterback an average of 35.9 percent of the time, while the Steelers have pressured the opposing quarterback at least 40 percent of the time in every game since Week 5. Their sack-rate is No. 2 behind only the 49ers. Why is this important? Because Allen’s 54.7 QB Rating under pressure ranks as the sixth-worst in the league. They’re coming off a road game where they held Kyler Murray to just 194 yards passing and two yards rushing. No quarterback outside of Lamar Jackson has rushed for more than 22 yards against them. Passing the ball hasn’t gone well against them since the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, either. With him on the roster, they’ve allowed just 6.2 yards per attempt, 13 passing touchdowns, and 17 interceptions over the span of 11 games. There’s been just one quarterback who’s finished better than the QB16 during that time, and it was Baker Mayfield when he threw for 193 yards and two touchdowns, but had a rushing touchdown put him over the top (that was the only rushing touchdown they’ve allowed to a quarterback this season). When you add in the fact that this game is on the road in Pittsburgh, and you have yourself another game where it’s tough to trust Allen as anything more than a middling QB2 with a low-end QB1 ceiling.

Devlin Hodges: He hasn’t cost them games, which is really all that Mike Tomlin wants out of him. He’s now started three games this season and has yet to eclipse 21 pass attempts in any of them. When you look at the Bills and the fact that they’ve allowed just 6.16 yards per attempt and 12 passing touchdowns through 13 games, you know this is a matchup to avoid, even in 2QB leagues.

RBs
Devin Singletary: He’s now totaled at least 16 touches in five of the last six games, which means he’s somewhat of a must-start, regardless of matchup. If you were to talk about a matchup that might give you fits as a fantasy owner, the Steelers are one of them. They have still yet to allow a top-12 performance all season, and in fact, they’ve allowed just one running back to top 13.8 PPR points. That running back was Kareem Hunt, who finished with just 65 total yards with a touchdown. Plain and simple, this is a brutal matchup for running backs. They’ve allowed just two running backs to hit 80 yards on the ground, and both of them received at least 21 carries, a mark Singletary has hit just once all season. The good news for Singletary’s fantasy floor is that the Steelers aren’t blowing anyone out, and it’s allowed running backs to averaged 27.5 touches per game against them. They’ve still allowed the fifth-fewest points to the running back position, which highlights just how dominant they’ve been versus the run. If you’re starting Singletary this week, you’re doing so hoping that he breaks a big play and scores a touchdown, because the Bills are still bringing Frank Gore in on goal-line situations (10-of-12 carries inside the five-yard-line have gone to Gore). Singletary is best viewed as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in this matchup.

James Conner, Benny Snell, and Jaylen Samuels: It’s probably best to assume James Conner is inactive until we actually see him on the field, though he did return to practice on Wednesday in a full capacity. The Steelers shared the snaps last week, giving Samuels 27 snaps, Snell 24 snaps, and even giving Kerrith Whyte 8 snaps. We don’t know how they’ll handle the workload with Conner back, as they may try to keep him fresh/healthy and divvy up the workload. With a game that has such a tight spread, oddsmakers are clearly saying this game can go either way. The way to beat the Bills is on the ground, though they haven’t allowed a team of running backs to total more than 78 rushing yards over the last four games, which included the Ravens, Cowboys, and Broncos backfields. The 4.55 yards per carry they’ve allowed on the year won’t matter much if the Steelers don’t rack-up some carries, which teams have continually failed to do against the Bills. They’ve faced an average of just 19.7 carries per game this year, and there’s been just one team to total more than 24 carries against them, which is going to make it tough to rely on Conner for top-tier production, especially when we don’t know how much of a timeshare it’ll be. He should be considered a low-end RB2 who comes with some risk coming off another multi-week injury. Samuels continues to be extremely inefficient on the ground, as his 2.8 yards per carry suggests, and the Steelers aren’t throwing enough to make him a major factor in the passing game. He’s nothing more than a low-end RB4. Snell is a non-factor if Conner plays, as he might get 3-5 touches.

WRs
John Brown: It was only a matter of time before the tough matchups affected Brown’s fantasy output, and though he’s failed to top 40 yards in each of the last three games, he had touchdowns to carry him through in the first two. The matchup in Week 15 doesn’t get much easier. Over the last five weeks against the Steelers, there has not been a WR1/WR2/WR3/TE1 combo to combine for 40 PPR points. In fact, each of the last four teams have failed to combine for more than 31.1 PPR points. It’s worth noting that the Bills offense is very concentrated to Brown and Beasley, which helps, but this matchup is not for those seeking upside. Brown will see a lot of Steven Nelson in this matchup, a cornerback who’s been rejuvenated by the relocation to the Steelers. On the year, he’s allowed just 26-of-49 passing for 359 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. The good news is that he has allowed seven 20-plus-yard passing plays, so Brown may be able to get loose deep. There have only been seven wide receivers who’ve finished better than WR28 against the Steelers, and two of them came before Minkah Fitzpatrick in Weeks 1 and 2. Brown is really tough to bench considering how much he’s overcome this year, but dropping expectations to a high-end WR3 makes sense here.

Cole Beasley: We’re now entering Week 15 and despite both playing in every game, Beasley has outscored Odell Beckham. What a time to be alive. Beasley has been one of the more underappreciated fantasy assets this year, as he’s scored at least 9.0 PPR points in 11-of-13 games, providing a stable floor. He’s now scored in six of the last eight games, though he’ll have his hands full this week. The matchup with the Steelers hasn’t been kind to fantasy receivers, as they’ve allowed just a 59.7 percent completion-rate to the position. But with the type of pressure the Steelers bring, we could see Beasley as a favorite “get the ball out of my hands quickly” option. Mike Hilton is their primary slot cornerback, though there’s a lot of zone over the middle of the Steelers defense. It’s unlikely you find a whole lot of yardage here with Beasley, which means you’re pulling for a touchdown in order for him to get into the top-40 conversation. When their implied team total is just over 17 points, it’s not great to make that bet. He’s in the WR5 conversation this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington: With Smith-Schuster out, Washington played the slot-heavy role once again last week, which is a good sign for his potential in this game. The Bills are still not a matchup you need to target aggressively with wide receivers, as they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points to them on the year. The 1.36 PPR points per target is second-best behind only the Patriots, and that’s an issue when we know Hodges hasn’t thrown more than 21 pass attempts in any of his three starts. Even if Washington got a massive 25 percent target share, that’d amount to just five targets. The slot matchup with Taron Johnson is a lot better than the one with Tre’Davious White, as Johnson has allowed a 73.0 percent catch-rate in his coverage, but has kept the play in front of him, allowing 7.7 yards per reception. If Smith-Schuster does return, it’ll kick Washington outside, essentially destroying his playability. Washington’s bread and butter has been the deep ball, something the Bills haven’t been prone to allowing, as the 26 pass-plays over 20 yards they’ve allowed ranks as the second-fewest in the league. Washington shouldn’t be relied on for anything more than high-end WR5 numbers, even if Smith-Schuster doesn’t play. It appears he will though, which makes Washington someone who should be on fantasy benches. Smith-Schuster would be in the WR4 conversation if he returns, but as mentioned, even a high target share might not amount to much. *Update* Smith-Schuster may have had a setback as he had to leave practice early on Thursday. He’s not expected to play. 

Diontae Johnson: He got back on the fantasy radar last week with a six-catch, 60-yard, one-touchdown performance, though you can’t forget who it came against. The Cardinals have proven time and time again that they simply allow a lot of production in their secondary. Unfortunately, the Bills do not share that trait. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points to fantasy receivers, including the second-fewest PPR points per target. Johnson also lines up on the perimeter, which is where he’ll see plenty of Tre’Davious White, one of the better up-and-coming cornerbacks in the league. White has seen 72 targets in his coverage this year and has yet to be charged with a touchdown. He’s also allowed just a 54.2 percent catch-rate, which is not great when Johnson has seen more than six targets once since Week 8. Johnson is nothing more than a low-upside middling WR5 this week.

TEs
Dawson Knox: While he’s definitely in a workhorse role, Knox’s target totals haven’t gotten to the point where he’s must-start, and when you add in the inconsistency of his targets, it’s tough to rely on him. The Steelers have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this year, which ranks as the third-most in the league, though the 6.72 yards per target is one of the lowest marks. We know to follow yards by now, right? Knox isn’t the biggest red zone threat just yet, either, as he’s scored two touchdowns on 45 targets in this, his rookie season. He’s only seen four targets inside the red zone. There have been six tight ends who’ve finished top-15 against the Steelers this year, but their names were Hunter Henry, Will Dissly, Gerald Everett, George Kittle, Jack Doyle, and Mark Andrews. Those are household names who typically see a lot of targets. Knox isn’t quite on the streaming radar this week.

Vance McDonald or Nick Vannett: After suffering a concussion in the Steelers win over the Cardinals, McDonald may not be available for this game. Even if he is, you’re not going to trust him or Vannett against the Bills. They’ve been the No. 4 team in the league against tight ends, and that’s despite both Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle scoring against them last week. They’ve allowed an average of just 36.6 yards per game to the tight end position as a whole, with Hurst being the first tight end who top 48 yards against them all season. You can safely ignore Steelers tight ends here. *Update* McDonald has been ruled out for this game.

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

Total: 46.0
Line: NO by 9.0

QBs
Jacoby Brissett: He did exactly what he was supposed to against Tampa Bay last week, but he suffered another casualty in the process, as Parris Campbell was placed on injured reserve, joining Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers, Devin Funchess, and unlikely-to-play T.Y. Hilton. The Colts went out and signed Dontrelle Inman who played with the team last year, so at least they have a competent player for Brissett to throw to. The Saints suffered some injuries of their own last week, as edge rusher Marcus Davenport and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins were lost for the season. The Saints have allowed just four quarterbacks all season to average more than 7.56 yards per attempt, with three of them coming over the first three weeks when Rankins wasn’t on the field. The fourth one was last week when Rankins had to leave after playing just 8 snaps. You think he matters? The Saints have allowed multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in 10-of-13 games this year, which helps, but when you know Brissett is throwing to backups, why would you trust him any more than a mid-to-low-end QB2?

Drew Brees: The 49ers were dealing with a few injuries last week, but whew… Brees absolutely buried them while throwing for 349 yards and five touchdowns (also added a rushing touchdown). Coming into that game, they’d never allowed more than two touchdowns, and just four quarterbacks had thrown for more than one. They lost the game, but it certainly wasn’t on Brees, who posted the fourth-best fantasy game by a quarterback in 2019. The Colts haven’t been as tough on opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed seven quarterbacks to throw for at least 296 yards. There have been six quarterbacks who’ve averaged 6.3 yards per attempt or less, while there’s been seven quarterbacks who’ve averaged at least 8.3 yards per attempt. Those who haven’t: Nick Foles, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mason Rudolph, and Joe Flacco. Let’s just go ahead and say Brees isn’t a part of that group. They’ve allowed a massive 69.2 percent completion-rate, which meshes well with the record-setting Brees who’s completed at least 70 percent of his passes in four straight seasons (including 73.6 percent this year). With the run-game struggling to get going and the defense dealing with quite a few injuries, Brees may throw a bit more than usual. Play him as a middling QB1 here.

RBs
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: In Mack’s return to the lineup, he… surprise, surprise… wasn’t targeted at all. It was a brutal matchup against the Bucs, so we don’t want to think too much about his 13-carry, 38-yard effort. This matchup with the Saints was an absolute brutal one, but the injuries to both Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins are massive. Over the first three weeks and last week’s game without Rankins, the Saints have allowed 427 yards on 79 carries (5.41 yards per carry) with two rushing touchdowns. In the nine games with him, they’ve allowed just 450 yards on 153 carries (2.94 yards per carry) with three rushing touchdowns. Quite the difference, eh? Davenport also graded out as one of the better run-stopping edge defenders. Gamescript is the biggest concern for Mack, as his non-involvement in the passing-game would crush his value should the Saints jump out to a lead. Still, the numbers without Rankins should allow Mack to have a much better day when he does get the ball. Go ahead and plug him in as a middling RB2 with upside the game can remain competitive. Hines hasn’t received an increase role no matter what and he fumbled last week, which surely won’t help his cause. The 4.94 yards per target the Saints have allowed to running backs ranks fourth-best in the league. Hines is just a low-end RB4.

Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: The Saints run-game has been struggling to produce the elite numbers they have the entire time under Sean Payton. They’re still averaging a rock-solid 4.56 yards per carry between them, but the six rushing touchdowns pale in comparison to the past. I’ve watched Kamara all season and he looks like the same running back, though the offensive line isn’t creating the massive holes it was last year. He’s averaging just 1.2 yards before contact this year while that number was at 1.9 yards last year. The Colts allowed their first 100-yard rusher over the last two years under Matt Eberflus in Week 13 when Derrick Henry tagged them for 149 yards and a touchdown. Outside of Henry, no running back has topped 88 rushing yards against them this year. The 131.3 fantasy points they’ve allowed on the ground ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, the 142.8 PPR points they’ve allowed through the air ranks as the 12th-highest. It may be rough to rely on rushing touchdowns out of the Saints backs, as the Colts have allowed just four of them all year. The matchup favors Kamara’s role, so fire him up as a middling RB1 who has to find the end zone before long, right? Right?! Being at home as big favorites, it’s tough to completely dislike Murray, but knowing the Colts are better against the run and have allowed the third-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league, he’s stuck in the high-end RB4 territory as someone who’ll need to score to be more than that.

WRs
Zach Pascal: He’s officially the last man standing. With T.Y. Hilton unlikely to play, and Chester Rogers/Parris Campbell/Eric Ebron on injured reserve, Pascal is the clear-cut target leader among the Colts wide receivers. He’s seen 19 targets over the last two weeks, turning them into a rock-solid 12 receptions for 183 yards and a touchdown. The downside is that he rarely plays in the slot, which is the area to attack the Saints. Maybe with the injury to Campbell, they do a rotation between him Johnson and Inman in the slot. The combination of Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple has been solid on the perimeter, allowing a combined 78-of-128 for 1,116 yards and six touchdowns in their coverage. That’s a solid 8.72 yards per target, though just one touchdown every 21.3 targets. Getting the target share he is, Pascal deserves middling WR3 consideration, though it’s not nearly as good of a matchup this week as it was last week.

Marcus Johnson and Dontrelle Inman: We don’t know exactly how these two will be deployed with Parris Campbell on the shelf, but it’s important to note that Inman played plenty of slot snaps with the team last year. On targets in the slot, he caught 11-of-17 targets for 117 yards and two touchdowns, though that was with Andrew Luck under center. Johnson has caught just 1-of-5 targets for 9 yards in the slot this year. Receivers have averaged 21.6 targets per game against the Saints and though the Colts do feature their tight ends a bit more, we should see 8-10 targets between these two receivers. Johnson has seen 13 targets over the last two weeks, so he should probably be the one desperate fantasy owners turn to, though Inman is likely to have the better matchup in the slot and is the better talent. Both can be considered WR5-type options.

Michael Thomas: With just three games to go, Thomas needs 23 receptions to break the all-time record of 143 set by Marvin Harrison back in 2002. Even with three games left, Thomas’ 121 receptions are the 13th-most all-time. It’s safe to say he’ll get it. The Colts are a team he should be able to rack up some catches against, as they run a zone-heavy scheme that’s allowed receivers to catch 68.4 percent of passes that come their way. They’ve allowed 10 different wide receivers to rack up six or more receptions against them. Thomas moves all over the formation so there’s not one cornerback he’ll see more than others. Knowing the Colts are one of the more limiting teams against the run, Thomas should have himself a big day. There have been seven wide receivers who’ve posted 21-plus PPR points against the Colts, so feel free to play him in cash and tournaments.

Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith: Outside of one game against the Falcons, Ginn has been seeing in-between 3-6 targets over the last eight games, which is why we can’t ever cross him off fantasy sheets, but knowing he hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 1 should make you feel like you aren’t missing much. The Colts also haven’t been very susceptible to the big play, so it’s unlikely Ginn makes a splash play. Smith is still playing a full-time role primarily in the slot and while he could benefit from Kenny Moore missing another week for the Colts, he’s impossible to trust given the fact he’s yet to see more than four targets in a game. There are better options out there for hail-mary-type plays.

TEs
Jack Doyle: It was an extremely disappointing game for Doyle, who totaled just two catches for 27 yards on six targets in what appeared to be a dream matchup against the Bucs last week. The Colts lost another receiver to injured reserve, so his target share isn’t going anywhere. The Saints were one of the best in the NFL at defending tight ends last year, allowing just two starters to finish as top-12 options, though things have changed a bit. They’ve allowed seven different tight ends to post numbers good enough for TE13 or better, including 6/67/1 to George Kittle last week. They’ve only faced four tight ends who’ve seen more than five targets and each of them were able to finish as the TE8 or better. As a whole, the Saints have allowed 1.80 PPR points per target, which ranks as the 14th-highest mark in the league. It’s not a smash spot for tight ends, but it should be solid enough for Doyle to post mid-to-low-end TE1 numbers.

Jared Cook: After suffering a concussion in the Week 14 game against the 49ers, Cook is going to be highly questionable for this game, and it only makes matters worse that he doesn’t play until Monday night, leaving his owners in a quandary. There are not any tight ends available on the waiver wire who are playable as an insurance policy, so unless we get clearance by the time the games start on Sunday, you should be going with an alternate option. There have been 11 tight ends who’ve finished as the TE17 or better against the Colts, which does give you safety of a floor if he’s in the lineup, though just one has finished better than the TE7, so Cook is more of a floor play than anything. If he does play, treat him as a low-end TE1. Stay tuned for updates, as I’ll post them here by Saturday morning. *Update* Cook did practice in full on Friday and appears to be on track to play, though you should pay attention to reports Sunday morning.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 44.5
Line: BAL by 14.5

QBs
Sam Darnold: He just went through what might have been the easiest stretch of schedule among all quarterbacks where he played the Bengals, Raiders, Redskins, Giants, and Dolphins twice. He did his job for the most part, scoring 17-plus fantasy points on four separate occasions. Unfortunately, that ride has come to an end and we are able to deem Darnold as irrelevant in fantasy. The Ravens are the hottest team in football and have now gone 10 straight games without allowing a quarterback more than one touchdown. The only quarterback who’s accomplished that feat against them was Patrick Mahomes, way back in Week 3. With the upgraded and healthy secondary, the Ravens are able to bring pressure up front, and that allowed them to pressure Josh Allen continuously last week, sacking him a season-high six times. Darnold has been pressured on 43.0 percent of his dropbacks this year, which ranks second-most to only Daniel Jones. This is not a week to consider Darnold and neither will Week 16 against the Steelers.

Lamar Jackson: So, does his Week 14 performance constitute as a “bad game” for him? The 19.8 fantasy points he scored was his lowest mark since Week 5 and just the second time all season he’s been held to less than 21.2 fantasy points. That’s essentially his floor in fantasy, which is quite ridiculous. The Jets have been one of the best run defenses in the league when it comes to running backs, allowing them just 2.9 yards per carry, but what about quarterbacks? Well, it hasn’t been great there, either. They’ve allowed just 3.09 yards per carry to quarterbacks, which is one of the lowest marks in the league, though it does help that they’re likely to be without stud safety Jamal Adams, who was forced to miss Week 14 with an ankle injury. He didn’t practice all last week, so it seems somewhat unlikely he’ll be ready by Thursday night. With him out of the lineup, Ryan Fitzpatrick ran for 65 yards. But don’t forget about what Jackson has done with his arm, either. He’s now leading the league with 28 passing touchdowns. The Jets haven’t been as bad as some have made them out to be against the pass, as they’ve allowed just 6.90 yards per attempt and a 3.93 percent touchdown-rate, but their opponents are averaging nearly 66.0 plays per game, which is one of the higher marks in the league. They’ve also had a variety of injuries in their secondary as of late, which should allow for some passing numbers. Start Jackson as you normally would, as an elite QB1.

RBs
Le’Veon Bell: He was held out last week due to an illness, and in his absence, Bilal Powell totaled 74 yards on the ground, which is more than Bell has had all season. Fresh legs are a real thing, as are the impact of Bell being in the backfield versus Powell, but it’s still noteworthy. It should be expected that he’ll go back into his normal role knowing Powell is not playing, though it’s a brutal matchup he’s returning to. The Ravens have limited their opponents plays with their ball-control-style offense, and that’s directly impacted the running back touches. There have been just five running backs who’ve totaled more than 14 touches against them, which is a ridiculously low total considering they’ve played 13 games. Bell’s snaps had decreased a bit over the last month, too, as he’s played just 68 percent of the snaps over his last four games, which is down significantly from his 90-plus percent over the first nine weeks of the season. But again, the absence of Powell this week should change that. The 4.56 yards per carry the Ravens have allowed to running backs doesn’t even make much of a difference with Bell, who’s averaging just 3.22 yards per carry on the season, as it seems unlikely the Jets will have enough carries to go around to make him very successful. The Ravens have also held each of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less, so it’s not like there’ll be many scoring opportunities, either. Bell should be considered a mid-to-low-end RB2 this week who does come with a decent floor, though not much of a ceiling.

Mark Ingram: As crazy as it sounds, Ingram has now failed to hit 60 rushing yards in 8-of-13 games. His 12 total touchdowns will certainly mask some of that, but you should understand what kind of player you’re putting into your lineup. It’s likely we’re looking at another game where it’s touchdown-or-bust for him this week, as the Jets simply don’t allow rushing yards. The 2.95 yards per carry they’ve allowed on the year is easily the lowest in the NFL, as opposing teams of running backs have averaged just 62.5 rushing yards per game. This is probably a good time to let you know that Ingram has accounted for just 58.4 percent of the Ravens’ running back rushing yardage (Gus Edwards 31.6 percent, Justice Hill 10.0 percent). Ingram has been somewhat involved in the passing-game, though nothing consistent, as his target totals over the last four weeks are 0-4-1-2. Now, the Jets have allowed nine rushing touchdowns on the year, so Ingram can find his way into a touchdown, but he shouldn’t be relied upon for more than mid-to-low-end RB2 production, as it seems unlikely he’ll account for more than 80 total yards. It does help that defensive tackle Steve McLendon is reportedly “banged up” and listed as questionable for this game.

WRs
Jamison Crowder: If you went into the playoffs relying on Crowder, it’s not the greatest feeling to see him wind-up with just three catches for 30 yards against the Dolphins, especially when Bell was out and Ryan Griffin left the game early. If you made it through with that, consider yourself lucky. You’re not going to want to take that risk again this week, as the Ravens might just be the worst matchup for pass-catchers right now. Looking over the last five games against the Ravens, their opponent’s WR1/WR2/WR3 and TE1 have not combined for more than 34.7 PPR points. I cannot explain how ridiculous that is. The slot receivers they’ve played in that time were Tyler Boyd (6/62/0), Keke Coutee (3/25/0), Cooper Kupp (6/35/0), Kendrick Bourne (3/42/0), and Cole Beasley (4/29/1). So, the ceiling in those games was 12.9 PPR points, which is just enough to get into the WR3 conversation. Coming off the last two games that have netted just five catches for 38 yards, his floor doesn’t justify him being started as anything more than a mid-to-low-end WR4.

Robby Anderson: He’s gone bananas the last three weeks, totaling 18 receptions for 303 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest note is that he’s seen 10-plus targets in back-to-back games, which is something that didn’t happen once in the first 12 weeks. It’s unlikely his hot streak continues this week, as the Ravens have one of the deepest cornerback units in the league and have absolutely shut down opposing receivers as of late. Over the last five weeks, the biggest games against them have been Robert Woods‘ 6/97/0 on nine targets and Deandre Hopkins‘ 7/80/0 on 12 targets. Those receivers obviously needed high target shares to get into top-20 production. Anderson will see a mix of the Ravens cornerbacks, though Jimmy Smith is the one he’ll see most. On the year, Smith is allowing just 10.9 yards per reception and a 45.2 percent catch-rate. Anderson’s target share is what makes him semi-appealing here, but he’s more of a high-end WR4 with a limited ceiling in this matchup.

Marquise Brown: Not only has Brown been limited in his targets (has topped five targets just once since Week 4) but he’s been limited in practice for as long as I can remember. He’s had some brutal matchups the last two weeks against the 49ers and Bills, which net negative yardage. He’ll look to get back on track this week against a Jets secondary that’s been dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary. They have Darryl Roberts and Bless Austin out there as starters on the perimeter, which is where Brown plays most of his snaps. Austin is a sixth-round rookie who only started playing in Week 10, while Roberts is a fourth-year cornerback who’s allowed a 66.2 percent catch-rate this year and a touchdown every 16.3 targets in coverage. The Jets have allowed 20 wide receivers to hit double-digit PPR points, but just one of them saw less than six targets (Phillip Dorsett 3/46/1). Brown can beat both cornerbacks in coverage, but will he get the targets? With the Jets run defense as good as it is, the Ravens may have to increase their pass attempts this week. Brown is still just a middling WR4 with how little he’s been targeted, but he has more upside than most in that range.

TEs
Daniel Brown: Given the injury to Ryan Griffin, it seems highly likely it’s Brown as the starter for the Jets on Thursday night. He saw two targets while playing a very-high 62 snaps against the Dolphins. He’s been on the team all year, getting anywhere from 2 to 22 snaps as a backup. Over the course of his five-year career with multiple teams, Brown has averaged just 5.5 yards per target and hasn’t had more than 20 targets in a single season. The Jets (Darnold in particular) have shown a tendency to target the tight end position but given Brown’s history combined with the fact that the Ravens are a bottom-five matchup for tight ends, you have yourself a situation to avoid.

Mark Andrews: The good news for the Ravens is that their tight ends combined for 6/97/2 last week. The bad news is that Andrews played just nine snaps and accounted for 1/14/0 of that, as he suffered a knee injury that John Harbaugh deemed “not serious,” and that Andrews told him he’ll be ready to play Thursday night. Time will tell, but is it possible they limit his workload? Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle proved capable against the Bills, who were the second-best team in the league against tight ends coming into that game. They’re heading into another tough matchup this week with the Jets, who have allowed the fifth-fewest points to tight ends on the season. It’s worth noting that safety Jamal Adams is a big reason they’ve been as good as they have against tight ends, and he’s highly-questionable for this game after missing Week 14 with an ankle injury. Even with Adams, it hasn’t been a “no fly zone” for tight ends, as there’ve been seven different tight ends who’ve totaled at least 41 yards against them, though none have broke out for a massive game, as Zach Ertz‘s 5/57/1 was the biggest fantasy performance against them this year. If Andrews plays, it’s really tough to sit him, but understand that he’s going to come with some additional risk due to his health and the matchup.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.