Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

Total: 40.5
Line: PHI by 6.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: He’s not particularly in a great place right now, but neither are his receivers, as he walked into last week’s game with just three active receivers, then lost Alshon Jeffery early in the game. He does have five touchdown passes over the last two weeks and has scored at least 19.9 fantasy points in each of them. While those games were against the Dolphins and Giants, his next matchup is against the team he had his best game of the year. Granted, he had both Jeffery and DeSean Jackson the first time they played the Redskins, but still. They’re a defense that kind of plays into the Eagles’ strength, which is up the middle of the field and through the tight ends. They’ve allowed a 72.5 percent completion-rate to tight ends this year, so look for Wentz to find his talented duo quite often. The best way to describe the Redskins as a defense is inconsistent. We’ve watched them allow three-plus touchdowns to guys like Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen, Wentz, Tom Brady, and Mitch Trubisky, but have also watched them hold Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo to one or zero touchdowns. Their pressure-rate is bottom-10 in the league, but they’ve generated a sack on 8.7 percent of drop backs which ranks No. 5 in the league. Everything about them just screams ‘guessing game’ for what you’re getting. Knowing Wentz has posted 306/2 and 313/3 the last two times he’s played the divisional rival, we should expect a solid performance, but at what point do all these losses at wide receiver impact our ability to start him? Consider him a high-end QB2 this week.

Dwayne Haskins: We’re now five starts into Haskins’ professional career and he’s thrown precisely three touchdowns. He’s also yet to throw for more than 214 yards in a game. You’re not going to be starting him any time soon.

RBs
Miles Sanders and Boston Scott: The shenanigans in the Eagles backfield is nothing new. Ever since Doug Pederson arrived, they’ve been a team that’s somewhat unpredictable at the running back position. The latest Boston Scott performance shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. Sanders has still played at least 50 snaps in each of the last four games, so we should expect him to retain value despite Scott’s impact. The Redskins have been a bit hit-or-miss with fantasy running backs, as they’ve allowed eight of them to finish with 17.2-plus PPR points (RB15 or better), but the rest of them have finished with 13 points or less with a bunch of middling RB3-type games. The important stat here is that each of the eight running backs who did finish top-20 against them all totaled at least 19 touches, a mark that it’s only been hit four times this year by an Eagles running back. Oddly enough, it’s Sanders who has hit it each of the last two weeks. Can it happen against the Redskins with Scott’s emergence? Yes. They’ve allowed their opponents 66.5 plays per game, which is the fourth-most in the league. The lack of competence from their offense has allowed opponents to give their running backs a ridiculous 31.8 touches per game. The Redskins defense actually ranks as the 12th-best in terms of fantasy points per opportunity, but when you’re facing that much volume, it’s hard to limit production. Scott is a thorn in his side, but Sanders should still be able to deliver low-end RB2 numbers here. It’s tough to say Scott will have more fantasy value than someone like Duke Johnson, as his production will likely be sporadic. He hadn’t played more than 14 snaps in a game before Week 14, and the Eagles will have more pass-catchers active/healthy for this game. He still deserves RB4 consideration with the matchup they have this week, but don’t be surprised if he winds up with less than 10 touches.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Since the firing of Jay Gruden, Peterson has racked-up 127 carries over eight games. There are just nine running backs who have more carries in that time, and they’re all considered every-week starters in fantasy. Should Peterson be in that conversation now that Derrius Guice is on the shelf again? The argument can be made, but against the Eagles this week? Probably not. Saquon Barkley‘s 66-yard performance on the ground Monday night was just the second time this year they’ve allowed a starting running back more than 43 rushing yards. Crazy, right? The 3.62 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the third-lowest mark in the league, and because of that, teams haven’t run very much against them. Their opponents average just 19.0 carries per game, which partly has to do with the 60.2 plays they average, which is also one of the lower numbers in football. Meanwhile, the Redskins average a league-low 54.5 plays per game themselves. The percentage of rushing plays against the Eagles is just 37.6 percent, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. We know Bill Callahan wants to stick to the run as long as possible, and if the Eagles struggle to score points like they did on Monday night, Peterson will get enough work to be fantasy relevant. It’s still a big “if” which leaves him in low-end RB3 territory with minimal upside. Thompson has played just 23 and 24 snaps since returning from his injury, but did rack-up a massive eight targets last week on just 27 Haskins pass attempts. Running backs have combined to average 7.6 targets per game against the Eagles. There have been four running backs who’ve tallied six-plus receptions against them, and Thompson was one of them back in Week 1 when he finished as the RB15. The offense still doesn’t generate a whole lot of points, but Thompson should get enough targets to generate high-end RB4 numbers, particularly in PPR formats.

WRs
Greg Ward and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside: Just how much does matchup matter to you? These two are likely going to be on the field quite a bit for the Redskins this week, as Alshon Jeffery is out, and Agholor has been in-and-out of the lineup with injuries. Ward saw a massive nine targets last week against the Giants, though they only netted four catches for 34 yards. Arcega-Whiteside hasn’t been targeted much in his rookie season and has yet to top five targets despite all the injuries on the team. The Redskins have faced just 16.5 targets per game to wide receivers, but when targeted, they’re allowing a 69.8 percent catch-rate and 1.97 PPR points per target. Both of those numbers are bottom-six in the league. But here’s something that might shock some people… The Redskins have allowed just 10 wide receivers to finish as top-24 performers against them. The lack of targets to go around is a real thing. After benching Josh Norman a few weeks back, they now have Quinton Dunbar dealing with a hamstring injury, so we’re down to Jimmy Moreland, Fabian Moreau, and Simeon Thomas as the starters in the secondary. If Agholor sits, both of these receivers make for decent last-minute replacements as WR5-type plays.

Nelson Agholor: Dealing with an ongoing knee issue, Agholor was inactive in Week 14, though the team would love to have him back for this game. He didn’t practice at all last week even though he was expected to on Saturday. They didn’t announce him as out until game-day, so he should at least have a shot to play in this game. The Redskins are hurting in their secondary, too. After benching Josh Norman, they lost Quinton Dunbar to a hamstring injury last week, which makes it highly unlikely he suits up for this game. With Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup, Agholor has been a target hog, averaging 10.7 targets per game. The issue with Agholor is that he’s failed to record more than four catches or 43 yards or a touchdown since way back in Week 3. He’d also be coming off an knee injury, which adds additional risk. He’s run 66 percent of his routes from the slot, which is where the Redskins have been most susceptible, making him someone who’d be a risk/reward WR4. If he practices in full at any point this week, I’d feel a bit more confident. If he’s limited all week, it’s probably a situation that’s best avoided. He did not practice on Wednesday. *Update* He did not practice all week and is listed as questionable. It’s best to avoid, even if the matchup is phenomenal. On Saturday, he was officially ruled out. 

Terry McLaurin: Let’s get this straight: McLaurin is a very good receiver. This does not automatically make him a very good fantasy receiver. I understand the ‘want’ to play him every week, I really do. The sad reality is that he’s failed to record more than four receptions in eight of his last nine games and has caught just one touchdown over his last seven games. If you didn’t see what it required for him to get that one touchdown, go back and watch his highlights from last week. It was remarkable. The Eagles secondary is one to attack, and particularly on the perimeter, as the combination of Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills have allowed 60-of-101 passing for 929 yards and nine touchdowns in their coverage this year. We just got done watching fellow rookie Darius Slayton torch Darby for 150-plus yards and two touchdowns on Monday night. The 59.6 percent catch-rate the Eagles have allowed to receivers isn’t great, but they make up for that allowing 14.76 yards per reception. Considering McLaurin relies on big plays to have fantasy value right now, this is a good thing, as is the fact that they’ve allowed 18 touchdowns to receivers, which is the tied for the third-most in football. McLaurin finds a way to remain on the low-end WR3 radar.

Kelvin Harmon: He’s kind of gone under the radar over the last month, but Harmon has been somewhat of a staple in the passing game, totaling 21 targets over the last four games, turning them into 12 receptions and 177 yards. Those aren’t massive numbers, but knowing the Redskins may have to abandon the run early-on this game may give him a shot at more targets. The Eagles perimeter cornerback duo of Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills has been their biggest weakness. Harmon works all over the formation and won’t see any one cornerback more than the others, but knowing the Eagles allow the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers requires attention from someone who’s a full-time receiver. You still can’t trust Harmon more than a WR5 with how incompetent Haskins has been, but he might just pan out.

TEs
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: With the Eagles receivers as banged-up as they are, we knew the tight ends would have to step-in and be difference makers against the Giants. Not only did Ertz and Goedert combine for 18 targets, but third-string tight end Josh Perkins saw five targets. That’s 23 targets in one game to the tight end position. Now going into a matchup with the Redskins, a team that’s allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, we know where Wentz is going this week, right? Tight ends have caught 72.5 percent of the targets thrown their way against the Redskins, which is important because none have seen more than seven targets in their matchup. That includes Ertz, who saw seven targets in Week 1, hauling in five passes for 54 yards while DeSean Jackson went bonkers. Landon Collins has been stable in coverage, but the Eagles present problems with their two tight ends on the field, as the Redskins simply don’t have the depth to contain both of them. While Ertz is the one that’s an auto-play as a TE1, Goedert should also be played as a low-end TE1 considering he hasn’t seen less than five targets since way back in Week 7.

Jeremy Sprinkle: There are a few teams in the NFL whose tight end position is rather pointless in fantasy, and the Redskins fit that bill. Sprinkle has been the starter for nine weeks now and he’s yet to see more than four targets or top 36 yards. The Eagles are also a team that defends the tight end position extremely well, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to the position. Carry on.

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 47.5
Line: CLE by 2.5

QBs
Baker Mayfield: After seeming like he was on the right track, Mayfield took a giant step back in fantasy owners’ hearts last week after he completed just 11 passes for 192 yards and no touchdowns against the Bengals. There was some concern about him not living up to expectations due to the run-game going off, but nobody expected what we saw take place. He’s now totaled less than 200 yards passing in three of his last four games, but should you be considering him as a streamer this week? Absolutely. The Cardinals are the worst pass defense in the league, and it’s not even close. Let’s count the ways: They have allowed 8.40 yards per attempt (3rd-most), a 6.64 percent touchdown-rate (3rd-most), and a ridiculous 71.8 percent completion-rate (highest in NFL). They’ve allowed an average of 26.6 completions per game. Not pass attempts, but completions. They’ve allowed an average of 311.5 passing yards and 2.46 passing touchdowns per game. The only three quarterbacks who didn’t finish as top-12 options were Russell Wilson (odd), Daniel Jones, and Devlin Hodges. The only quarterbacks who failed to finish with at least 7.4 yards per attempt were Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones. There is absolutely nothing to dislike about the matchup, outside of the fact that Mayfield has been maddeningly inconsistent. Still, this matchup is good enough where he’s in the low-end QB1 conversation.

Kyler Murray: It hasn’t been a great two weeks for Murray owners, as he’s completed just 39-of-64 passes for 357 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. They were difficult matchups with the Rams and Steelers, but the worrisome part is that he’s rushed for just 30 yards in those two games. That lack of production on the ground is tied to the hamstring injury he suffered in practice before their Week 13 game. He should be getting closer to 100 percent by the time this game is played. That’s important because the Browns have done well against the pass but have allowed plenty of production on the ground to quarterbacks. They’ve allowed the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks but have allowed just the 18th fewest fantasy points through the air. The 244 yards and four touchdowns they’ve allowed on the ground to quarterbacks amounts to the fifth most fantasy production in the league.  They’ve still yet to allow a 300-yard passer against them this season, but have allowed a quarterback to account for two-plus touchdowns in 9-of-13 games. Because of that, we’ve only seen four quarterbacks finish outside the top-15 for that particular week, which highlights the floor that Murray should have in this game. Keep in mind that three of the four quarterbacks who didn’t were Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, and Luke Falk. Murray should be expected to post low-end QB1 numbers this week, though he’ll need to use his legs a bit to get there.

RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Even though they combined for 185 total yards in Week 14, it was a disappointment for fantasy owners, as Chubb failed to find the end zone, and Hunt ended the game with just 11 touches. The offense is sputtering right now as they piece together enough production to keep them in fantasy lineups. For as bad as the Cardinals have been on defense, they haven’t allowed very much production on the ground. They’ve held opposing running backs to just 98.8 rushing yards per game, which is quite remarkable considering they’ve allowed over 311 passing yards per game. It’s not due to their opponents going very pass-heavy, either, as the 58.7 percent pass-rate against them is right in the middle of the league. There is one important note, however. There have been just three running backs who totaled 20 carries against the Cardinals, and each of them finished with 102-plus rushing yards. Chubb has hit that carry mark in eight of the last 11 games. The rough part for Chubb is that he’s scored just one touchdown over his last seven games, and he’s caught just five passes over the last four games, which makes him a lot more gamescript-dependent than most running backs in the RB1 range. We talked about this last week, but Chubb has been outscored by Hunt in 4-of-5 games in PPR formats. You have to think Chubb’s touchdowns catch up to his production at some point, though the fact that the Cardinals have allowed just seven rushing touchdowns to running backs this year clouds the likeliness. Chubb isn’t someone to play in cash games, but he does make plenty of sense in tournaments. You’re playing him as a low-end RB1 in redraft leagues. Hunt is a bit more difficult to project, as the Cardinals opponents have not felt the need to target running backs very often (6.6 per game). When they do, it does net results, as the 1.85 PPR points per target ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. Hunt has been efficient and maintained a high floor despite being limited to 10-12 touches in each game. Think of him as a slightly lesser version of Austin Ekeler, which puts him in the high-end RB3 range. There is no team in the NFL who’s allowed more fantasy points per game to skill-position players than the Cardinals.

Kenyan Drake and David Johnson: With Chase Edmonds back in the fold last week, the snap count was Drake 38, Johnson 21, Edmonds 11. The touch count went Drake 14, Johnson 5, Edmonds 1. While it’s still Drake leading the way, the timeshare is a real thing. Against the Browns, there hasn’t been a whole lot of running back touches to go around, as the average has been 26.3 per game. Those touches have been pretty profitable, as they’ve allowed 4.71 yards per carry and 6.99 yards per target, both of which are in the bottom-10 in the league. The 144.2 total yards per game they’ve allowed to running backs ranks as the 11th-most, though they’ve only allowed 10 total touchdowns through 13 games, or one every 34.2 touches. If we knew this timeshare would persist as it were in Week 14, Drake would be able to be played as a high-end RB3 who’d likely wind-up with 16 touches, but we’ve now seen Johnson’s role grow as he gets healthier, going from just eight snaps in Week 11, to 15 snaps in Week 13, to 21 snaps in Week 14. It feels like a situation that’s going to only get messier, making Drake a mid-to-low-end RB3 who’s likely to wind-up in the 12-15 touch range. Johnson is trending up but cannot be considered anything more than an emergency RB4 who’s likely to get 6-8 touches.

WRs
Odell Beckham: News came out prior to last week’s game that Beckham has been playing through a hernia that will require offseason surgery. Apparently, the injury was prior to the season started, which is obviously not great news for those who invested a first-round pick on him. Despite this injury, Beckham has totaled 52-plus yards in 9-of-13 games, which is something only 17 other receivers can say. The issue has been his ceiling, as it hasn’t existed. He’s topped 87 yards just twice all year, which will keep him in WR2/3 territory no matter how consistent he is. Is the Cardinals matchup good enough to take him into top-12 territory? There have been 12 wide receivers who’ve seen eight or more targets against the Cardinals this year, with each of them totaling at least 13.4 PPR points, which is typically enough to get into the top-30 receivers for the week. Six of those receivers finished as top-12 options on the week. Even if the Cardinals choose to have Patrick Peterson shadow him, it’s not a bad thing, as Peterson has been a shell of his former self, allowing 31-of-39 passing for 440 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. Beckham may be a shell of his former self as well, but he’s still someone who should be in lineups as a mid-to-low-end WR2 this week.

Jarvis Landry: If you read the stat on Beckham’s floor above, don’t worry I have one on Landry, too. He’s now totaled at least 62 yards in 9-of-13 games, something only seven receivers can say. The difference is that Landry has had the touchdowns (particularly over the last six games) that Beckham hasn’t. The Cardinals have a struggling secondary that’s allowed 14 different receivers to hit 60-plus yards, which includes slot-heavy receivers Tyler Boyd, Danny Amendola, Golden Tate, Chris Godwin, and Cooper Kupp. They now have former undrafted free agent Kevin Peterson covering the slot. He’s played just 348 snaps in the NFL over his four years in the league. While in coverage this year, he’s allowed 15-of-21 passing for 241 yards, though he hasn’t been responsible for a touchdown in his coverage yet. It’s not just Peterson, either, as the entire team has combined to allow 94-of-117 passing for 1,210 yards and 11 touchdowns in the slot. That’s an 80.3 percent catch-rate, 10.3 yards per target, and a touchdown every 10.6 targets. How bad is that? Michael Thomas has a 82.3 percent catch-rate, 9.7 yards per target, and scores a touchdown every 21.0 targets. Landry should be locked into lineups as a rock-solid WR2 with top-12 upside.

Christian Kirk: Last week was an example of why we try to play high-volume receivers even in bad matchups. Kirk was facing an uphill battle against the tough Steelers secondary while Murray struggled, yet he still wound-up with eight catches for 95 yards. He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last four games, racking up at least six receptions in three of them. The Browns have Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams monitoring the perimeter, and they’ve been a good duo, allowing just under a 50 percent catch-rate, 6.77 yards per target, and two touchdowns in their coverage. The slot is where most teams go to move the ball against them, an area that Kirk has run just 15 percent of his routes from over the last four games. He remains on the WR3 radar with his volume, but unless Kingsbury moves him to the slot more often, he’s got another tough matchup.

Larry Fitzgerald: Is this the quietest 90-target season ever? He ranks 25th among receivers, but Fitzgerald hasn’t topped 71 yards since way back in Week 2 and has failed to top 38 yards in five of his last seven games. The Browns weakness in the secondary is in the slot, which is where Fitzgerald lives at this stage of his career. The Browns have allowed 17 receivers to hit double-digit PPR days against them, and six of them have been slot-heavy receivers, including Tyler Boyd‘s five-catch, 75-yard performance last week on just six targets. The good news is that the Browns run a very zone-heavy scheme, which is the scheme Fitzgerald averages 10.9 yards per target against, while averaging just 5.9 yards per target against man coverage. At this point in Fitzgerald’s career, relying on him for anything more than WR4 production would be a mistake, though his 27 targets over the last four games provides a safer floor than most in that range.

TEs
David Njoku: It was the worst-case scenario for those who were looking forward to streaming Njoku this week against the Cardinals. He was activated and played in Week 14, but he was on the field for just 20-of-54 snaps and saw three targets, hauling in just one for four yards. That’s hardly enough to give you confidence in starting him, even if it is the best matchup on earth for tight ends. The Cardinals have continually proven they’re as bad as advertised against tight ends, as they’ve now allowed 10 tight ends to finish top-10 against them. They’ve each totaled at least 11.3 PPR points, which is a number that no other team has allowed more than eight tight ends to hit. Not just that, but seven of those tight ends were able to finish as top-three options on the week. The 2.44 PPR points per target they’ve allowed requires just 4-5 targets for your streaming tight end to hit value. Because of that, Njoku is on the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 streaming radar. He comes with plenty of risk, but what tight end doesn’t?

Charles Clay: He scored his first touchdown in a Cardinals uniform last week, but has just 21 targets on the year, and has just three games all season with more than one reception. You’re not contemplating Clay as a streaming option.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

Total: 45.5
Line: OAK by 6.5

QBs
Gardner Minshew: We shouldn’t have been expecting much out of Minshew against the Chargers, as it was a brutal matchup, but the aftermath of that game is the real problem. D.J. Chark is in a walking boot and considered “week-to-week” by Doug Marrone, which doesn’t sound like he’ll be on the field this week, which takes away a lot of appeal with Minshew. The Raiders have been a matchup to target with quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed 7-of-13 quarterbacks to account for at least three touchdowns against them. There have been just three quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Finley) who haven’t accounted for at least two touchdowns. Flacco and Cousins both came over the first three weeks of the season when the defense was relatively healthy. When you see four different quarterbacks total 391 or more yards, you know it’s not a fluke; it’s a good matchup. In terms of fantasy points per pass attempt (no rushing totals), the Raiders have allowed a league-high 0.60 points per attempt. Extrapolating that, if a quarterback threw just 35 passes and did nothing with his legs, he’d wind up with 21.0 fantasy points. Knowing the Raiders are favored by nearly a full touchdown, we just might get 40 pass attempts out of Minshew. Knowing he adds value with his legs (at least 28 rushing yards in each of his last four starts), Minshew can be considered in the middling QB2 range, and he likely has a higher floor than most quarterbacks in that range.

Derek Carr: How many times this year do you think Carr has finished better than QB11? The answer would be one. That was back in Week 8 against the Texans when he threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns. He legitimately needs three touchdowns to get into QB1 territory because of how little he offers on the ground. The Jaguars have allowed three quarterbacks to hit that number against them this year, though one came just last week when Philip Rivers did it. The Jaguars reek of a team that’s packed it in for the year, as they’ve lost both Marcell Dareus and Myles Jack on the front-seven, and while the run defense is practically non-existent, the secondary looked a bit toast last week, too. It’s still a much better matchup on the ground, as they’ve allowed 7.99 yards per attempt on the year, while allowing 5.47 yards per carry on the ground. Carr doesn’t throw the ball more than 34 times (hasn’t since Week 2) regardless, but this matchup is one to have him throw even less. You can find better streamers for the fantasy playoffs.

RBs
Leonard Fournette: Even in a game the Jaguars lost 45-10, Fournette racked up 21 opportunities. Knowing D.J. Chark is likely out for this game, he could see even more targets than he’s used to. The Raiders started the year extremely strong against the run, but have tailed off over the last six games, allowing 589 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns on 138 carries. Those totals include the Jets and Chiefs backfields, who’ve failed to do much of anything on the ground all year. During that stretch, they’ve also allowed 25 receptions for 264 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Add that all up and you have 142.2 total yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game allowed. We know Fournette gets 90-plus percent of the Jaguars touches. Based on points per opportunity (which we know Fournette gets a ton of), the Raiders have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per opportunity. Fournette should be in lineups as a stable RB1 who has very little risk.

DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard: With Josh Jacobs on the shelf, Washington stepped up and recorded 20 touches against the Titans, compiling 96 total yards and a touchdown in the process. He’s the lead back with Jacobs out; that much is sure. Against the Jaguars, it’s a gift from the fantasy gods. The Jaguars run defense has simply disappeared over the last five games, as they’ve allowed 823 yards on 131 carries (6.28 yards per carry) with nine rushing touchdowns. The only team that didn’t total at least 175 yards on the ground was the Bucs running backs, who never record yardage in general. They’ve allowed at least two rushing touchdowns in each of their last four games. This is the best matchup in football right now, and it’s not all that close. Washington is locked into 20 touches, is at home, is a near-touchdown favorite, and playing against the worst run defense in football. The argument can be made that he should have RB1 status this week. Play him. Amidst all that production the Jaguars have allowed on the ground, I forgot to mention they’ve also allowed 23 receptions, 330 yards, and one touchdown through the air in those games. That’s a total of 1,153 total yards to running backs over the last five games, or 230.6 per game. Even Richard has some appeal in this game as a high-end RB4 as someone who should net 10-12 touches in a phenomenal matchup. *Update* Jacobs is reportedly going to try and play this week after the results of his MRI came back better than expected. This is not a cut-and-dry situation with him absolutely playing, so don’t drop Washington if you stashed him. Even if Jacobs plays, Washington is going to be involved in this plus matchup. If he plays, Jacobs is a risk/reward RB2 while Washington would be a high-end RB4 with some upside. 

WRs
Chris Conley: With D.J. Chark on the pine, Conley steps into the No. 1 receiver role for Minshew. Conley has had a role for quite a while now, as his 47 targets since the start of Week 7 rank 35th among wide receivers. Those targets have netted 24 receptions for 389 yards and one touchdown. Keep in mind that was with Chark in the lineup, taking 61 targets for himself. While we should expect Keelan Cole to step into the lineup and take some of those targets, Conley clearly has the upper hand. The cornerback he’ll be seeing the most of is Daryl Worley, the veteran cornerback who’s kind of like the mirror image of Conley the receiver. He’s allowed just a 53.0 percent catch-rate, but the receptions have gone 16.5 yards a pop with a touchdown every 16.5 targets. Conley has a 53.5 percent catch-rate while averaging 16.6 yards per reception with a touchdown every 35.5 targets. Provided Chark is out, Conley is smack dab in the middle of the high-end WR4 conversation. Worley missed practice on Wednesday with a neck injury.

Dede Westbrook: His role/snaps really shouldn’t change with Chark out of the lineup, though it should increase his target floor. The Raiders were a team getting absolutely destroyed by slot receivers to start the year, but over the last four games, that hasn’t been the case at all. They’ve faced Tyler Boyd (one catch, 3 yards), Jamison Crowder (two catches, 18 yards), Sammy Watkins (no catches on three targets), and Tajae Sharpe (four catches, 25 yards) during that time, so it’s not as if the competition was complete trash. Has Lamarcus Joyner grown into his slot role? Over the first eight weeks of the season, he allowed 32-of-41 passing for 334 yards and one touchdown in the slot. Since that time, he’s allowed just 9-of-14 passing for 83 yards and no touchdowns. Because of that trend, combined with Westbrook’s mediocre totals over the last five games, he slots in as a semi-decent floor WR4-type option.

Tyrell Williams: Despite losing a receiver in the preseason who was supposed to garner 150-plus targets and then losing their starting slot receiver for multiple weeks, Williams has averaged just 5.2 targets per game, and he hasn’t seen more than six since way back in Week 4. He’s topped three receptions just once in the last nine games and has failed to top 46 yards in eight of his last 10 games. Despite having great matchups over the last month, Williams hasn’t done anything useful for fantasy teams and is borderline droppable. There are plenty of waiver wire receivers who are lined up to get more work this week. The Jaguars have allowed 14 top-36 performances to wide receivers this year, so it’s not like it’s the Bucs or anything. The 1.67 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is tied for the 12th-lowest mark in the league. He’s going to see a lot of A.J. Bouye in coverage, too, who happens to be the best cornerback on their roster. Williams is nothing more than a low-end WR4 who’s failed to capitalize on his opportunity.

TEs
Nick O’Leary: Since joining the team three weeks ago, O’Leary has seen 13 targets. That’s not too bad for a tight end off the street. He’s totaled at least four receptions and 30 yards in 2-of-3 games and even scored a touchdown last week. Targets have funneled to the tight end position against the Raiders as teams target them an average of 7.5 times per game. Since joining the team, O’Leary has seen all but one of the tight end targets. The Raiders have allowed a league-low 62.2 percent catch-rate, but everything else is great. The 12.9 yards per reception and touchdown every 10.9 targets are near the bottom of the league, so despite the low catch-rate, there have been nine tight ends who’ve finished with double-digit PPR points. O’Leary isn’t the worst TE2 option available on most waiver wires.

Darren Waller: Not that you were worried about targets for Waller, but he likely just gained another handful of them, as Foster Moreau was placed on injured reserve. It may not be much, but Moreau did get 1-3 targets per game and has caught five touchdowns, so we could see Waller a bit more in the red zone this week. He also happens to be going against a Jaguars team that’s allowed a touchdown once every 9.7 targets to tight ends, which is second-worst to only the Cardinals. With how well teams have run the ball against the Jaguars, they haven’t targeted their tight ends very often, but when they do, good things have happened. The 2.13 PPR points per target also ranks as the second-worst to only the Cardinals. While the Jaguars have seen just 68 targets all season from tight ends (16.6 percent), the Raiders have targeted tight ends on 33.9 percent of their attempts, which ranks third-highest in the league. Get Waller into fantasy lineups and expect him to do some damage.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 48.0
Line: DAL by 1.0

QBs
Jared Goff: He had a mediocre game last week against the Seahawks where Sean McVay really changed things up with the personnel, and it did give them the element of the unknown, so kudos to him. Still, his finish was just QB17 on the week. The Cowboys had not allowed a quarterback to hit the 20-point threshold through 10 weeks but have now allowed three of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to hit that number. It does help that each of them rushed for at least 43 yards and a touchdown, which is something we’re obviously not getting out of Goff. Make no mistake about it, the Cowboys are not a bad pass defense. They’ve allowed just 6.92 yards per attempt and a 3.64 percent touchdown-rate, both of which rank top-10 in the league. Trubisky was the first quarterback to throw for three touchdowns against them, and in fact, he was just the fifth quarterback to throw more than one touchdown against them. The games Goff has done well in this year have come against the Bucs, Falcons, Bengals, and Cardinals. Those are all teams towards the bottom of the league when it comes to yards per attempt and touchdown-rate to quarterbacks. If you’ve played Goff against bottom-feeder defenses, you’ve done well. If you’ve played him against non-bottom-feeder defenses, you’ve done poorly. This matchup doesn’t strike me as a bottom-feeder, despite the fact that they’ve lost three in a row. Goff should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB2.

Dak Prescott: He’s coming off back-to-back brutal matchups against the Bills and Bears, though he was able to post rock-solid fantasy numbers (17.4-plus) in each of them. It surely helps that he threw the ball 49 times in each of those games, but that’s seemingly a regular thing with him nowadays, as he’s thrown 46-plus passes in four of the last five games. The Rams defense presents another tough matchup for him, as they’re coming off a game where they held Russell Wilson touchdown-less for the first time in a calendar year. There are just three quarterbacks who’ve averaged more than 7.36 yards per attempt against the Rams all year, and two of them were prior to acquiring Jalen Ramsey. This is a must-win game for both teams, as both are vying for a playoff spot, and it should bring the best out of them. Outside of getting embarrassed by Lamar Jackson (who hasn’t?) for five touchdowns in Week 12, the Rams have allowed just three passing touchdowns since Week 5. That’s a span of seven games, which is rather impressive. The 61.8 percent completion-rate ranks 7th-best, 6.70 yards per attempt ranks 5th-best, and 3.84 percent touchdown-rate ranks 10th-best. Prescott also reportedly suffered a sprained left hand and injury to his right index finger against the Bears, adding another level of uncertainty. He’s more of a high-end QB2 this week than the must-start QB1 he typically is.

RBs
Todd Gurley: It’s now five weeks of workhorse Gurley, as he’s totaled 85 of the Rams 115 running back carries and 15 of their 16 targets. We’re talking about 76.3 percent of the opportunity available, which is great. While he has been getting a lot more work, it may not automatically translate to results against the Cowboys. They’ve played against six running backs who’ve totaled 20-plus touches, and just three of them have scored more than 11.9 PPR points. Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, and Sony Michel all failed to finish as top-20 options despite getting the volume needed. The good news, however, is that they’ve faced an average of 26.9 running back touches per game, which is great for someone who’s been getting 76.3 percent of the work. The Cowboys have been without linebacker Leighton Vander Esch each of the last three weeks and will be again, but Sean Lee has stepped in and helped the defense limit opponents to just 271 yards on 67 carries (4.04 yards per carry) with no touchdowns (even Lee is questionable this week). While the Bears, Bills, and Patriots may not have the most potent rushing attacks, it’s fair to say this isn’t a cake matchup. Gurley has the looks of a mid-to-high-end RB2 this week.

Ezekiel Elliott: He notched his first multi-rushing-touchdown game in 2019 last week, something nobody would’ve thought to be the case had they known the Cowboys are a top-10 scoring offense in the league and Elliott has been healthy. The reality is that the Cowboys are no longer a run-first offense and have averaged just 19.3 running back carries over the last four weeks. Elliott does have 18-plus touches in eight straight games, so that’s not something to worry about, especially considering Tony Pollard was inactive last week with an ankle injury. The Rams look good on paper, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but it’s even worse than that, as they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points per opportunity, behind only the Patriots, 49ers, Bucs, and Steelers. Ever since allowing Christian McCaffrey the RB1 performance in Week 1 with 209 total yards and two touchdowns, the Rams have allowed just eight top-24 performances to running backs over the next 12 games. The matchup does align to Elliott’s strengths more than it does his weaknesses, though. He’s recorded more than two receptions just five times this year, so he hasn’t relied much on that for his production. Since Week 1, the Rams haven’t allowed a running back more than 35 receiving yards, though there have been five running backs who’ve totaled 70 or more rushing yards. Elliott is going to be in lineups as an RB1 but he’s not an auto-play in DFS or anything.

WRs
Cooper Kupp: What in the world was Sean McVay doing last week? Well, it worked, so I can’t be too critical. Still, why in the world would Kupp play just 19 snaps? Afterward, McVay said that Kupp is used like a fullback at times with how much blocking he does, so he wanted to keep him fresh. The change in personnel worked early in the game, but it did slowly unravel, so expect Kupp to resume his normal workload this week. We didn’t see the Bears attack it heavily, but the Cowboys secondary has a massive weakness. After losing cornerback Anthony Brown for the year, they’ve had to turn to Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Since taking over, he’s allowed 25-of-32 passing for 369 yards and two touchdowns. He also has two interceptions in his coverage, but we don’t care much about those from a fantasy perspective. Of the nine receivers who’ve scored 13-plus PPR points against the Cowboys, four of them have been slot-heavy receivers, including a six-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown performance to Cole Beasley two weeks ago. He’s the safety valve for Goff and he also happens to have the best matchup on the field. Put him in lineups as what should be a sturdy WR2 with the best matchup on the field.

Robert Woods: There’s not a receiver in the game with more fantasy points than Woods over the last two weeks, which is largely due to the 27 targets he’s seen in them. He played a massive 67 snaps last week while Cooks played just 26 and Kupp played just 19. It was apparently McVay’s plan, which could be just a one-week thing, but could be a shift in how he’ll use them moving forward. Knowing Woods has played well, and Goff has looked better, it would make sense to keep involving Woods. The issue up next is the Cowboys pass defense that’s allowed just nine wide receivers all year to produce more than 11.4 PPR points. That’s just nine wide receivers who’ve finished inside the top-30 wide receivers when they played the Cowboys. It was a similar story last year, as they allowed just 13 wide receivers to accomplish that feat. Think about that for a minute… they’ve allowed just 22 wide receivers to finish inside the top-30 over their last 29 games; not exactly the best odds. The Cowboys play sides in their zone-heavy scheme, and it’s Chidobe Awuzie who Woods will see the most of, a cornerback who’s allowed 43-of-69 passing for 620 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage this season, amounting to a 95.1 QB Rating, which is right around the league average. With how big of a part Woods is in the offense, you have to start him as a WR2 this week, even in what’s been one of the toughest matchups for wide receivers.

Brandin Cooks: It’s really a remarkable thing to watch Cooks go from a guy who could produce no matter what, totaling at least 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons while on three different teams, to being completely irrelevant in fantasy overnight. But that’s where we are. He’s seen four or less targets in six of the last seven games, and he hasn’t finished with double-digit PPR points since back in Week 4. He played just 26 snaps last week, and while I don’t want to overreact to that because Kupp played just 19 snaps, it’s hard not to. The Cowboys have also been one of the best in the NFL at preventing the deep ball, as they’ve allowed just four pass plays to go 40-plus yards, which is tied as the second-fewest in the NFL. Cooks is sadly just a WR5 at this point, though we know he can play in this league.

Amari Cooper: He overcame what was considered a brutal matchup with the Bears last Thursday night, hauling in six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. After finishing with 8/85/0 against the Bills the prior week, it’s safe to say Cooper’s knee is doing fine, as those are two of the toughest matchups in football. On to another tough matchup with the Rams, who may have Jalen Ramsey shadow him. It wouldn’t be the worst thing for Cooper, though, as Ramsey hasn’t been what you’d call a lock-down cornerback with his new team. Since arriving, he’s allowed 26-of-35 passing for 324 yards in his coverage, though he hasn’t allowed a touchdown. The quandary the Rams will have is if they shadow Cooper, that’d leave Troy Hill on Michael Gallup, and though Hill has played better as of late, the Rams may not want that matchup taking place all game. Cooper is too talented to bench with the way he’s playing, though tempering expectations to the middling WR2 territory makes sense knowing they’ve allowed just three wide receivers finish better than the WR12.

Michael Gallup: He’s one of the safer No. 2 receivers (on his actual team) in fantasy football, as he’s seen at least six targets in 10-of-11 games, including double-digit targets in four of them. Some No. 1 receivers don’t see that type of volume, and knowing it’s coming from Prescott is a plus. If the Rams shadow Cooper with Jalen Ramsey, it would allow Gallup to match-up with Troy Hill, though we can’t guarantee that happening. It’s tough to love Gallup, though, because outside of the Ravens game where the Rams defense didn’t show up, they’ve allowed just seven wide receiver touchdowns over 12 games. They’ve also allowed just one wide receiver to hit the 100-yard barrier, and that was Chris Godwin way back in Week 4. While Hill is not someone I’m worried about when playing a receiver, he has been better as of late, allowing just a 46.0 percent catch-rate and 6.08 yards per target in his coverage. Gallup is seeing enough volume where you can still play him, but he’s more of a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 in this matchup.

Randall Cobb: After seeing seven-plus targets in four straight games from Week 9-12, Cobb has seen just eight targets over the last two weeks despite Prescott throwing the ball 49 times in each game. You have to look at the matchup and see if it dictates more targets, and it’s extremely tough to say this one does, as Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the better slot cornerbacks in football over the last few years. Cobb isn’t someone you should aim to play this week.

TEs
Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee: It seems like Everett is 50/50 to play this week, as he failed to get in any practice throughout last week. It’s not as if they’ve missed him, as Higbee has posted 14 receptions for 223 yards and a touchdown in his two-week absence. If Everett returns, they may cancel each other’s upside. The Cowboys have allowed a very-high 72.9 percent completion-rate, but the 9.87 yards per reception ranks as the eighth-lowest mark. In the end, the completion-rate doesn’t matter all that much when it amounts to just 7.20 yards per target, which is below average. There’s been just one tight end all season who’s finished with more than four receptions against them, and it was Evan Engram, who oddly did it twice. That’s a divisional matchup where the teams know each other very well. If Everett is held out again, Higbee still belongs in the high-end TE2 conversation with the target share he’s getting. *Update* Everett has been ruled out for this game. 

Jason Witten: He’s still running the most routes and seeing the most consistent targets, but Witten is losing some production to teammate Blake Jarwin. While Witten has seen at least four targets in every game, we’ve watched Jarwin total 20 targets over the last five games. Witten has totaled 40 targets over his last six games, so it hasn’t impacted his target total a whole lot, but it might if we see Prescott’s attempts come down. The Rams have been somewhat inconsistent against tight ends this year, allowing George Kittle and Tyler Eifert six-plus catches and 74-plus yards, but then holding Jared Cook and Mark Andrews to just two catches and 45 yards or less. They’ve allowed near the league average when it comes to yards per target (7.58) but have allowed just three tight end touchdowns on 81 targets. Witten is likely going to finish in-between the TE14 and TE20 like he usually does in an average matchup. He does provide a somewhat stable floor.