Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Total: 49.0
Line: TEN by 3.0

QBs
Deshaun Watson: When it was announced that Will Fuller was out last week, there was concern with Watson, though no one could’ve expected the Texans to get blown out by the Drew Lock-led Broncos. Watson saved his fantasy day with two rushing touchdowns, finishing as the No. 4 quarterback on the week. Can he bounce back against a Titans team who’s dealing with a variety of injuries in their secondary. After losing Malcolm Butler a few weeks back to injured reserve, Adoree Jackson is dealing with a foot injury that had him miss last week (no practice all week), and LeShaun Sims was also held out last week. That’s three of their top four cornerbacks who may be out for this game. In two games against a healthy Mike Vrabel defense last year, Watson finished with 310/2 in the first meeting and then 210/2 in the second one. He also rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown between the two games, highlighting he has no problem with the scheme. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game, which ranks as the third highest mark in the league. The 7.27 yards per attempt is right around the league average, but that’s before the injuries started piling up. Without Jackson in the lineup last week, we saw Derek Carr finish with 263/2 on just 34 attempts while playing without his starting running back and slot receiver. Watson has racked-up 18.9 or more fantasy points in five of the last six games with the only exception being the Ravens. You’re not running from a team that’s allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 8-of-13 games. Watson remains in lineups as a stable QB1.

Ryan Tannehill: He continued his domination in fantasy football last week, posting his third 23-plus-point performance over the last five games. Despite averaging just 26.7 pass attempts per game, Tannehill has totaled at least 18.9 fantasy points in 6-of-7 games as the starter. His unusually high touchdown-rate of 7.4 percent isn’t going to continue, but he’s able to get it done on the ground if he doesn’t have it going through the air. Against the Texans, the Titans should have multiple avenues to score points, as they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per opportunity to running backs but have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per pass attempt to quarterbacks (not including any rushing totals). They allow production on the ground to quarterbacks, too, as the 5.83 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks second-most in the NFL. Without J.J. Watt on the defensive line, they aren’t generating much pressure, and we’ve now watched 10-of-13 quarterbacks finish as the QB15 or better with at least 18.1 fantasy points. We just watched Drew Lock light them up for 309/3 in his second NFL start. Tannehill should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB1 this week who’s as hot as anyone in the league.

RBs
Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: So much for the Texans moving forward with Johnson as their lead back. Even in a negative gamescript (the whole game), we saw Hyde out-touch Johnson 16 to 7. To be fair, Hyde did run well against the Broncos (14 carries, 73 yards) but Johnson seemed to be carving out a bigger role in the offense. The Titans run defense hasn’t been a defense you need to avoid in matchups this year, especially knowing their opponents have averaged 66.3 plays per game, which amounts to plenty of touches to go around. It all comes back to touchdowns for Hyde, who has totaled at least 60 yards on the ground in 9-of-13 games, but his lack of usage in the passing game is what makes him so reliant on touchdowns. He has scored just one touchdown since Week 6, but the Titans have allowed six rushing touchdowns over their last five games, including one to DeAndre Washington as Josh Jacobs‘ replacement last week. The gamescript in this game should be decent enough for Hyde, and when you add in the high implied game total, he’s trending toward mid-to-high-end RB3 status. It should give you confidence to know he received plenty of touches in a game they trailed the entire way. This game should be a much more closely fought battle. Johnson would have a slightly bigger role if Fuller remained out of the lineup, as he’s averaged nearly two more targets per game when the speedy receiver is out. Targets have funneled to the running back position against the Titans, too, as they’ve seen an NFL-high 110 running back targets. They have been average at defending them, but it’s good to know there’s been seven running backs who’ve totaled five-plus receptions. Johnson is in the middling RB4 conversation who would get a bump if Fuller is out.

Derrick Henry: He’s now totaled 599 rushing yards over the last four games, as he’s plowing through whatever team is in his path. He had to leave the game for a short amount of time last week with a hamstring issue, which is something that caused him to miss practice time last week. It’s something worth monitoring, but knowing he returned to the game – and played well – we should proceed as if he’s okay. The Texans have the reputation of being a good run defense but let me clear that up… they’re not. On the season, they’re allowing 0.97 PPR points per opportunity, which ranks as the third-highest mark behind only the Panthers and Jaguars, two teams you’d love to play Henry against. They’ve allowed just the ninth-fewest points on the ground to running backs, but that’s due to teams failing to stick to the run, as they’ve allowed a healthy 4.41 yards per carry. The Titans have averaged 25.0 carries per game between Henry and Dion Lewis over the last four games, so they likely won’t have that issue. There have been four running backs who’ve totaled 20 touches against the Texans, and their finishes have been RB1, RB2, RB6, and RB9. As long as Henry is playing, you’re playing him as an RB1. The idea in DFS cash games is to limit risk, and if Henry were to miss more practice time this week, it might be wise to find a safer solution. *Update* Henry did not practice all week and is listed as questionable for this game. He’s insisted that he’ll play but if you own him, it’d be a good idea to snag Lewis as a last-minute replacement.

WRs
Deandre Hopkins: As expected, Hopkins saw a massive target share with Fuller out of the lineup. He turned 13 targets into 7/120/1 in a tough matchup with the Broncos. When Fuller is out, you can almost lock Hopkins in for 10-plus targets. We likely won’t know the status of Fuller until later in the week, but this is a matchup that’s attractive, regardless. The Titans secondary may be without three of their top four cornerbacks for this game, as Malcolm Butler is on injured reserve, Adoree Jackson is dealing with a foot injury, while LeShaun Sims is dealing with an ankle injury. Hopkins played against this secondary twice last year (while healthy) and caught 11-of-17 targets for 184 yards and a touchdown, so it was far from a tough matchup. We could see Hopkins matched-up with former fifth-round pick Tye Smith this week, a cornerback who’s seen just 32 targets over the course of his five-year career. On them, he’s allowed 18 receptions for 220 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins is an elite WR1 play and becomes a DFS cash game must if Fuller remains out. *Update* Jackson has been ruled out for this game, which only increases Hopkins’ appeal. 

Will Fuller: We talked about Fuller’s hamstring injury that seemed to bother him through the Colts game a few weeks back, but it was a surprise to see him inactive last week. He wasn’t announced as inactive until game day, so we have to assume he was close after getting in at least a limited practice all three days last week. He obviously comes with massive risk but the matchup with the Titans could be a good one. They’ve allowed a healthy 8.57 yards per target to receivers this year, which includes a large portion of time where they were healthy. They are not what you’d describe as healthy in their secondary right now. They were forced to go out and sign Tramaine Brock off the street while three of their top four cornerbacks are on the shelf. We don’t know if Adoree Jackson or LeShaun Sims will return, and that’s big to monitor, as Jackson has the athleticism to hang with Fuller, and he also plays primarily at LCB, which is where Fuller lines up most of the time. There are so many factors that go into Fuller’s ranking this week, but knowing his health is the primary concern, he shouldn’t be relied on for anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4. *Update* Fuller is listed as questionable for this week’s game after getting in limited practices all week. 

A.J. Brown: There was some panic surrounding Brown last week when he popped-up on the injury report with a calf issue, though that didn’t seem to limit him when he straight-up ran through the Raiders defense for 5/153/2. He and Tannehill have been growing in this offense together, as Brown’s promotion into the starting lineup coincided with Tannehill’s. In those seven games, he’s totaled 38 targets, 25 receptions, 506 yards, and four touchdowns. That amounts to 14.4 PPR points per game, which would rank 26th among wide receivers on the year. His 12.8 yards per target ranks second to only Mecole Hardman among receivers (minimum 15 targets). The Texans have allowed 17 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options against them, including at least one in 10-of-13 games. We all know by now that Brown is the No. 1 option in this offense, right? The Texans did get a boost from the time Gareon Conley joined them at the trade deadline, as he and Johnathan Joseph aren’t exactly pushovers in coverage. But they may have to dedicate a lot of resources into stopping Derrick Henry, which could lead to single-man coverage for Brown. His lack of elite targets is what turns us off the must-start button, as he’s totaled five or less targets in three of the last four games, but he’s playing so well, he’s got to be in the high-end WR4 conversation.

Corey Davis: We’re getting dangerously close to Davis being left off The Primer, as he’s become somewhat fantasy irrelevant. He hasn’t topped 48 yards since way back in Week 7 and he hasn’t seen more than four targets in each of his last three games. With Adam Humphries out of the lineup last week, we should’ve seen a slight bump, but that didn’t happen. The Texans are not a daunting matchup, but they’re not as good of a matchup as the Raiders or Bucs; two teams Davis failed to produce against over the last two months. You cannot start him with any confidence, as he’s clearly fallen into the No. 2 role behind Brown, and with the limited pass attempts, you can’t project more than a handful for Davis.

TEs
Darren Fells or Jordan Akins: With Fuller out of the lineup and the gamescript gone south, the Texans played Akins in a full-time role, allowing him to finish with nine targets, four receptions, and 49 yards. Fells saw just four targets that amounted to just two yards. The stat lines between these two is kind of funny when you look at them side-by-side.

Fells is the one who gets all the glory because he’s received 10 red zone targets compared to just four for Akins. The Titans have really struggled with tight ends as of late. Here are the last four tight ends who’ve played them (most recent first) with their stat lines: Darren Waller 6/73/0, Jack Doyle 6/73/1, Nick O’Leary 4/36/0, and Travis Kelce 7/75/1. While there are some really good names in there, it just goes to show they aren’t a matchup you need to avoid or anything. The seven touchdowns they’ve allowed rank as the third-most in football, but knowing Fells’ incredibly low yardage numbers as of late (less than 25 yards for five straight games) make him tough to play with any confidence. Akins would see a bump in targets if Fuller were out, but if he’s not getting many red zone looks, it’s difficult to trust him. Fells should be considered a touchdown-dependent middling TE2 in a plus-matchup while Akins is just an emergency TE2 if Fuller sits. It should also be noted that Titans safety Kenny Vaccaro suffered a concussion and is highly questionable for this game.

Jonnu Smith: This timeshare with the Titans gets uglier by the week, as the tight ends combined to run 24 routes last week. Smith 11, MyCole Pruitt 7, Anthony Firkser 6. It was Smith who came out with the most targets (4) while scoring a touchdown. We still can’t ignore the fact that he’s seen just six targets over the last three weeks combined and that his 11 routes run ranked outside the top 40 tight ends last week. The Texans hadn’t been a team to target with tight ends, though last week’s performance may make some question that, as they allowed the duo of Noah Fant and Jeff Heuerman to combine for 5/121/2 on just five targets. Prior to that, they’d allowed just three tight ends to hit double-digit PPR points. You can’t trust Smith based on a touchdown he caught last week; there’s just not enough to justify starting him here.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 45.5
Line: KC by 11.5

QBs
Drew Lock: What a performance by Lock, who completed 22-of-27 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans in just his second NFL start. He’s looked a lot different than the quarterback who played horrendously through the preseason. He’ll be on the road again this week, though it’ll be a bit tougher of a task against the Chiefs. Many mistake them for a bad defense, but they’re really not. Sure, they’ve allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but looking a bit closer, that’s a bit misleading. They’ve allowed just 6.94 yards per attempt (12th-lowest), a 4.12 percent touchdown-rate (13th-lowest), have generated a sack on 7.4 percent of dropbacks (12th-best), and have allowed just 0.41 fantasy points per actual pass attempt (T-10th-lowest). Volume has been key for quarterbacks, as has rushing totals. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points on the ground to running backs, something Lock is not really known for, though he does have some mobility. Knowing he’s thrown just 55 passes through two starts highlights the slow pace of the offense, as it’s similar to what happened with Brandon Allen under center. Playing in Kansas City is also known to be one of the toughest places to play, so when you combine all that with the team implied total of just 17.0 points, you have someone who’s just a low-end QB2.

Patrick Mahomes: The 13.9 fantasy points Mahomes scored last week was just the third time in his career he’s finished with less than 15.2 fantasy points. Fantasy owners seem to be panicking, though, as Mahomes has now failed to reach 20 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, which means he’s not carrying fantasy teams to victory on his own. This is what everyone talked about this offseason, as regression has settled in, though Mahomes is still very elite. The fact that he’s failed to throw more than one touchdown in six of the last eight games is concerning right now, however, as he’s about to go into a matchup with the Broncos, a team that’s allowed more than one touchdown pass just five times all season. The first time these teams played was in Denver and Mahomes was trending towards a big game, completing 10-of-11 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown before dislocating his kneecap. Mahomes may be catching them at the perfect time, though, as the Broncos have allowed eight passing touchdowns over the last four weeks since their bye, which is a lot considering they allowed just seven passing touchdowns in the nine games before their bye week. They were missing Von Miller for one of those games (Week 13) but got him back last week. Divisional games are always somewhat tough to predict, but knowing the Broncos have allowed each of the last four quarterbacks to play against them finish as the QB5 (Deshaun Watson), QB17 (Philip Rivers), QB9 (Josh Allen), and QB8 (Kirk Cousins), Mahomes needs to remain in lineups as a middling QB1 who still presents a rock-solid floor.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: The splits over the last four weeks have gone Lindsay 70 touches (62 carries, 8 receptions) and Freeman 32 touches (23 carries, 9 receptions). It still seems it’s close to a 50/50 split once the gamescript goes south, which oddsmakers are expecting here with the Chiefs as 11-point favorites. In the two starts alongside Lock, Freeman has run 36 pass routes while Lindsay has run just 15 of them. It’s almost like Lindsay is the Melvin Gordon of the offense, while Freeman is the Austin Ekeler (with much less efficiency). We saw this matchup earlier in the season where Freeman tallied 67 total yards and a touchdown on 14 touches while Lindsay had his worst game of the year, totaling just 32 total yards on 12 touches. The Chiefs have been one of the most generous teams in the league to running backs, allowing a massive 29.8 PPR points per game, which ranks second to only the Panthers. They’ve faced an average of 29.3 running back touches per game, so there should be enough work for both of these running backs (as there was in the first game) to go around. The 4.98 yards per carry they’ve allowed bodes well for Lindsay, as he’s got almost a 2.5 to 1 edge over Freeman with early-down work. But it’s worth noting that Lindsay averages 11.4 PPR points in losses and 15.6 points in wins. Meanwhile, Freeman averages 10.2 PPR points in losses and 8.3 points in wins. There are only five teams in the league who’ve allowed more 12.5-plus PPR point games (12) to running backs, so it’s possible they both get into startable territory, but it’s also possible they both disappoint considering projected gamescript. Lindsay should be treated as a low-end RB2 who needs to get his damage in early-on or things will go south for him. Freeman can be considered as a low-end RB3 who should come with a decent floor considering his amount of work in the passing game.

LeSean McCoy, Spencer Ware, and Darwin Thompson: This backfield is a complete mess. Sure, it’s a timeshare, we get it. But what happened to the Andy Reid offense that was super-efficient when running the ball, no matter which running back was on the field from years’ past? The snap count last week was Ware 30, McCoy 24, and Thompson 21. We’re now going into Week 15 and there’s been no running back outside of Damien Williams who’s totaled more than 14 touches in a game for the Chiefs. Considering all the injuries that have taken place, it’s really shocking to hear that, right? The Broncos have been a team that requires running backs to get volume in order to do well, as the 0.74 PPR points per opportunity they’ve allowed ranks as the sixth lowest mark in the league. Despite running backs averaging 29.8 touches per game against them, there have been just nine top-20 performances against them all year, and just three of those finished inside RB1 territory. To be clear, this matchup hasn’t presented much of a ceiling for running backs. We can’t guarantee a floor for any of them, so we’re kind of stuck in limbo. McCoy is the one who’s locked into 8-14 touches, so he’d be the best of the bunch, but he stays in the low-end RB3 territory. Ware and Thompson are not recommended plays with how little their roles were last week, though Thompson at least offers one-play upside, leaving him in low-end RB4 territory. *Update* Damien Williams did participate in both Wednesday and Thursday practices on a limited basis but was then downgraded to a missed practice on Friday.

WRs
Courtland Sutton: Through two games with Lock, it hasn’t been bad for Sutton, though it hasn’t been great, either. After catching 4-of-5 passes for 74 yards and two touchdowns in his first start, he saw a solid seven targets, but netted just five catches for 34 scoreless yards. The fact that Lock has been competent is the best news, as the numbers should follow. The Chiefs have done a great job with perimeter wide receivers this year, as both Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland have been solid. The duo has combined to allow just 56-of-115 passing for 894 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage, which is a 48.7 percent catch-rate, 7.77 yards per target, and a touchdown every 28.8 targets. Would you believe they’ve allowed just eight top-30 wide receiver performances on the season? Fortunately, Sutton was one of them when he hauled in 6-of-8 targets for 87 yards, though that was when Emmanuel Sanders was still on the team. You’re starting Sutton as a middling WR2 in this matchup but understand it hasn’t been a kind matchup to many receivers.

Tyreek Hill: We’ve talked a lot about Watkins’ inefficiency this season, but over Hill’s last three games, he’s felt the effects of it as well. His 18 targets have turned into just 11 catches for 117 scoreless yards in that time. The matchup last week was a tough one, but it was also a matchup he’d done well in in the past. In the first meeting with the Broncos, Hill was able to break a 57-yard catch for a touchdown, while catching just two passes for 17 yards the rest of the game. That was with Matt Moore under center for most of the game, as Mahomes had to leave with a dislocated kneecap. As the year has gone on, the Broncos secondary has become easier to attack, as Chris Harris Jr. can only do so much, and they haven’t used him in exclusive shadow coverage as of late. Because of that, there’s been five straight games they’ve allowed a double-digit PPR pass-catcher. There isn’t one cornerback Hill will see all game, but rather a combination of them. It’s only a matter of time before he explodes, and though this matchup hasn’t been one of the best for wide receivers, it can happen at any time. You continue playing Hill as a low-end WR1 with upside. He makes for a great tournament play considering how cold he’s been as of late, as his ownership will be suppressed.

Sammy Watkins: After seemingly losing some of his role in the offense, Watkins popped back up on the radar in Week 14 with eight targets. He managed to snag four balls for 50 yards, which is not too bad when you consider the matchup against the Patriots. The Broncos game was one he missed earlier in the year, so we don’t know how they’ll handle Watkins/Hill with Chris Harris Jr. but it would make sense if he played sides with how often these guys move around. Watkins is running nearly half his routes in the slot, which means he’ll see the most of Will Parks, the safety who’s covering the slot for the Broncos. He’s not someone to avoid, either, as he’s allowed 18-of-25 passing for 222 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. Watkins is what he is at this point, which is a wide receiver who’s seeing decent volume from Mahomes but underachieving. There are not many WR4s who present his type of upside and get as many targets, though many of his owners are wondering where exactly that upside is hiding.

TEs
Noah Fant and Jeff Heuerman: It seems like Fant will be extremely questionable to play this week, as he left the Week 14 game with a foot injury but is reportedly also dealing with a hip injury. We can’t cross him off for the week just yet, so make sure to check back here on Saturday morning for updates on his status. The Broncos gave Heuerman the most snaps in his absence, and he’s someone who got five targets in the Week 13 matchup while Fant was in the lineup. The Chiefs have faced tons of targets to tight ends, as teams have targeted them an average of 9.7 times per game, which is the most in the NFL. That’s why they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, and not necessarily due to being extremely giving. The 6.44 yards per target and 1.51 PPR points per target are both bottom-three in the NFL. And despite seeing the most targets to the position, they’ve allowed just four tight ends to record 40-plus yards against them all year. Lock has targeted tight ends on 16 of his 55 pass attempts for a massive 29.1 percent target share to tight ends, but is it realistic to continue doing that if Fant misses the game? If Fant plays, he should be considered a high-end TE2. If Fant sits, Heuerman would come with some middling TE2 appeal, but that’s only because of the targets that have been funneled to tight ends against them. *Update* Fant was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable. 

Travis Kelce: Did you know Kelce has been a top-13 PPR tight end in every single game this year? He’s been top-three just three times, but his consistency continually goes underrated. The Broncos haven’t been a team that’s allowed much production to tight ends and are the only team responsible for holding him to less than 58 yards this season. He tallied six catches for just 44 yards against them in the first meeting, though that was with Matt Moore under center for most of the game. They have Kareem Jackson covering the tight end most of the time, and he’s one of the better cover safeties in the game, as he’s been somewhat of a hybrid nickel corner/strong safety throughout his career. He’s the main reason they’ve allowed just 6.58 yards per target and just three touchdowns to tight ends on the season. You’re starting Kelce as a high-end TE1, but you don’t have to attack him in DFS or anything.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Total: 47.5
Line: TB by 3.5

QBs
Jameis Winston: After getting multiple opinions on the fracture he suffered on his throwing hand in Week 14, Winston has been cleared to play this week. The question now becomes: Do you want to trust a quarterback playing through a fractured hand while missing his top receiver? There’ll be many fantasy owners debating it when they see the Lions on the schedule, a team that’s allowed multiple passing touchdowns to 9-of-13 quarterbacks. It’s not just the touchdowns, either. They’ve allowed at least 7.2 yards per attempt to every quarterback not named Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins. That’s allowed six different quarterbacks to throw for 300-plus yards against them. All-in-all, there have been just three quarterbacks who’ve failed to post at least 18 fantasy points against the Lions. Kirk Cousins, who threw the ball just 30 times last week while letting their rushing attack take care of business. Philip Rivers, who threw for 293 yards but had no touchdowns. And lastly, Haskins, who doesn’t put up points against anyone. If you remove all the rushing totals for quarterbacks, the Lions have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’ve also only intercepted five passes all season, which bodes well for Winston’s odds of staying on the field. There’s certainly a lot more risk in this matchup than we’d hoped, as he would’ve been a top-five play if we knew he and Evans were healthy. Instead, he’s teetering on the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 radar. If completely torn between him and someone else, Winston would be the one I’d play for upside. *Update* He’s listed as questionable but Bruce Arians has stated that Winston will play.

David Blough: There will be some who are crazy enough to consider Blough this week knowing he’s about to play the Bucs defense. I understand those reasons, too. These teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in total plays per game this year, as they both average over 132 total plays per game. The Bucs have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and are the target of wide receiver matchups every week. But why is that? Volume has been a big part of that, as the 7.18 yards per attempt the Bucs have allowed actually ranks as the 16th lowest mark in football. The reason they’re such an attractive matchup is due to the fact you cannot run on them, and it’s why we’ve seen them face a league-high 41.2 pass attempts per game. Blough has thrown the ball 38 and 40 times in his two starts, which have come against the Bears and Vikings, two of the tougher opponents for quarterbacks. The Bucs have started to play better over the last month, too. The combination of Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles/Gardner Minshew, and Jacoby Brissett have combined to average just 6.26 yards per attempt in that time. Blough is fine for 2QB leagues, but I’m not willing to trust him in standard 1QB formats.

RBs
Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber: “Jones is still our starter,” says Bruce Arians. Well, if that amounts to a 30/27/23 snap split, who cares? It wasn’t even Jones who tallied the 30 snaps! Over the last three games, while Jones has been the “starter,” Barber has tallied 41 touches while Jones has 36 touches. This is a backfield to avoid whenever possible. After getting crushed over the first seven weeks of the season, the Lions run defense has not allowed a team of running backs to average more than 4.42 yards per carry. When you know that the running backs have been capped at around 10-12 carries apiece, you lose all sorts of hope, as none of them have been heavily involved in the passing game, either. Here’s a fun fact that the Jones haters will just love. He’s averaged 1.88 yards per route run, which ranks as the sixth-best mark among running backs, but sure, let’s give him just 31 targets all season. Many suggested his hands were what would keep him off the field. Barber’s 3.2 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per target is not deserving of a roster spot. If you can’t guarantee more than a dozen carries or a few targets, these running backs are stuck in mediocrity. Jones would be the running back of choice this week due to what he offers in the passing game (not guaranteed usage, of course), as the Lions have allowed a league-high 2.09 PPR points per target to running backs, including eight receiving touchdowns through the air. Still, Jones is nothing more than a low-end RB3 with Arians risk built in. Barber should be considered a high-end RB4 who comes with a 5-6-point floor, though not much of a ceiling.

Bo Scarbrough: We saw what a negative gamescript looked like for Scarbrough last week, and it wasn’t as bad as we thought. He still finished with 22 opportunities while the Ty Johnson/J.D. McKissic duo combined for just eight opportunities. Predictably, Scarbrough has caught just 1-of-4 passes this season for five yards, as he offers nothing there, though the Lions did try last week. The Bucs are not the matchup to target with running backs in general, let alone ones who are of the two-down variety. Despite a brutal schedule, the Bucs have allowed 3.18 yards per carry on the season, which ranks second-best to only the Jets. Even through the air, we’ve watched running backs average a league-low 4.45 yards per target. All of this amounts to the Bucs allowing just 90.8 total yards per game to opposing running backs, which is by far the lowest mark in the league. No other team has allowed less than 107.4 total yards per game to the position. Unless Scarbrough finds the end zone, he’s going to be a bust in this matchup. Consider him a low-end RB3/high-end RB4 with very minimal upside.

WRs
Chris Godwin: If you want to see double-digit targets, just watch his Week 15 game against the Lions. It doesn’t matter if he’s shadowed by Darius Slay; Winston will be targeting him relentlessly. There have been three games Godwin has seen 10-plus target this year. In those games, he’s averaged 9.3 receptions, 132.3 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns. Slay is coming off a game in which he allowed 8-of-10 passing for 128 yards in his coverage, so it’s not a must-avoid matchup, though it’s also not necessarily a smash spot, as Stefon Diggs is pretty dang good. Knowing there have been 16 wide receivers who’ve finished top-24 against the Lions, you should have little fear about Godwin’s floor in this matchup. Start him as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 and you just might get one of those massive performances.

Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson: We know Perriman already played a nearly full-time role with Mike Evans on the field, so his role doesn’t change that much, though there are a lot more targets up for grabs. Watson jumped up the depth chart quite a bit though and played 43 snaps in Week 14 while seeing eight targets, bringing in five of them for 59 yards and a touchdown. Coming into that game, Watson had seen just two targets all season, though we did see plenty of him in the preseason. He’s 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds, so not an easy body to move around for defenders. The expectation should be that Godwin will be in the slot for 3WR sets, while these two take the perimeter. With Darius Slay likely following Godwin, we will see Amani Oruwariye and Justin Coleman on these two. Oruwariye is a rookie who’s just started playing, allowing 9-of-11 passing for 75 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, while Coleman has been beat like a drum over the last two months, and one of the big reasons you play receivers against the Lions. Perriman should be considered a high-end WR5, while Watson is more of a middling WR5 because he has a bit more unknown, which may be a good thing, as we’ve kind of been-there-done-that with Perriman for a while now.

Kenny Golladay: He’s caught 10-of-13 targets from Blough over the last two weeks for 216 yards and two touchdowns, which isn’t bad at all. In fact, Robert Woods is the only receiver with more fantasy points over the last two weeks. Adding Marvin Jones to injured reserve this week should also raise his floor/ceiling. That’s good to know with the Bucs up next on the schedule. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and it’s not even close. They’ve allowed 46.3 PPR points per game to the position, while the next closest team (Cardinals) has allowed 40.0 points per game. They aren’t the worst defense on a production-per-target basis (actually 11th) but with some many targets available on 41.3 pass attempts per game, there have been 18 different wide receivers who’ve seen eight-plus targets. In fact, any time a receiver has seen seven or more targets against them, they’ve finished as a top-30 receiver. Golladay should be in lineups as a high-end WR2 with upside for more in this game.

Danny Amendola: He hasn’t been exactly fantasy relevant since losing Matthew Stafford, but he has seen eight targets in each of the last two games with Blough under center. With T.J. Hockenson and Marvin Jones on injured reserve, there are a lot of targets available against a Bucs team that’s faced a league-high 41.3 pass attempts per game, including 24.9 to wide receivers. As stated in the Golladay paragraph above, the Bucs have allowed any receiver who’s seen at least seven targets to perform as a top-30 wide receiver. It’s not a small sample size, either, as 19 receivers have done that. If you’re extremely desperate and just want a receiver who will have a floor of 8.0 points in PPR formats, Amendola might just be your answer. He should be considered a somewhat low-upside WR4 but one with a stable floor.

TEs
O.J. Howard: With Mike Evans leaving the game early on, the Bucs allowed Howard to play 68-of-78 snaps, his second-highest total of the season. He’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks and turned them into a rock-solid nine receptions for 134 yards. Among the 36 tight ends who’ve seen at least 30 targets this season, Howard ranks fourth in yards per target (9.4) behind only George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Jared Cook. He’s been sucked into the Arians risk category with Ronald Jones. The Lions just happen to allow the fifth-most yards per target (8.52) to tight ends, as well as a 72.7 percent catch-rate and a touchdown every 15.4 targets to them. The only tight end who saw more than five targets and didn’t finish as a top-12 tight end was Jason Witten, who’s averaging 6.4 yards per target on the season. Knowing Evans will be on the shelf and that the Bucs can’t run the ball; Howard should be on your low-end TE1 radar as someone who just might help when it matters most.

Logan Thomas: We talked about the Lions tight ends last week, saying there was a possibility that Thomas would be the leading receiver and not Jesse James. That’s exactly what happened. Thomas ran a team-high 22 routes and saw four targets. That’s not exactly enough to feel confident starting him or anything but the matchup against the Bucs is a good one. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the tight end position this year and have held just 3-of-13 tight ends out of the top-15. To be fair, of the 10 tight ends who did finish top-15, eight of them saw at least six targets, something that seems somewhat unlikely for Thomas. He’s nothing more than an emergency back-end TE2 but one who might just be crazy enough to work.

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants

Total: 48.0
Line: NYG by 3.0

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: There were some fantasy owners who trusted Fitzpatrick with their fate last week and the process was actually right, but unfortunately, he lost both DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson to concussions during the game, limiting his options to throw to. We likely won’t know the status of Parker or Wilson until later in the week, which means we must approach Fitzpatrick with caution, though the Giants are as good of a matchup that he could ask for. They’ve allowed an extremely high 8.24 yards per attempt, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league, while allowing a 5.49 percent touchdown-rate, which is fifth-highest. Their run defense has also played much better as of late, allowing just 266 yards on 93 carries (2.86 yards per carry) over the last four games, which has led to more passing totals for opposing quarterbacks. Despite Carson Wentz looking lost and being down to just two active wide receivers, he managed to put together a 325-yard, two-touchdown game on Monday night, while playing in the rain. The only quarterbacks who have failed to score at least 18.9 fantasy points against the Giants were Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins, who threw the ball just 38 times combined. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick hasn’t thrown the ball less than 33 times since taking back the starting job. If Parker plays, Fitzpatrick belongs in the high-end QB2 conversation. If he’s forced to sit, Fitzpatrick moves into the middling QB2 territory with a lower floor/ceiling combo.

Eli Manning: As of the time writing this, we don’t know who’ll be starting for the Giants, but for now, we’ll expect Manning. He played well on Monday night for a guy who’s been sitting on the bench for nearly three full months. The Dolphins are the next team up on the schedule, and while they’ve struggled to stop the run, the Giants haven’t exactly been able to run the ball with any success. There have been just two games all season where the Dolphins have allowed less than two passing touchdowns, while they’ve allowed three or more on four occasions. That’s why we’ve seen only Sam Darnold and Brian Hoyer finish outside the top-16 quarterbacks against them. Keep in mind that Darnold actually should’ve, but the overturned touchdown in that game shifted things. Eliminating all rushing production out of quarterbacks, the Dolphins have allowed 0.59 fantasy points per pass attempt, which ranks as the second-most behind only the Raiders. This is important for someone like Manning, who obviously offers nothing on the ground. He also has no mobility, but the Dolphins pressure the quarterback an average of just 29.1 percent of the time, which is the lowest mark in the league. When kept clean, Manning has completed 66-of-95 passes for 708 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception this year. He’s a middling QB2 this week and one who might get into the top-15.

RBs
Patrick Laird: With the lack of depth on the Dolphins roster, Laird played 59-of-72 snaps in Week 14, totaling 86 yards on 19 touches. He didn’t score or have much efficiency, but that was enough to finish as the RB20 in PPR formats last week. That was against the Jets, who are a much tougher matchup than most realize, allowing the fifth-fewest total yards per game to running backs. The Giants aren’t a great matchup either, but they’re still allowing a much more reliable 145.7 total yards per game to running backs. Based on pure opportunity, the Jets and Giants are right next to each other (8th and 9th), allowing just 0.76 and 0.77 PPR points per opportunity. The Giants have allowed just 266 yards on 93 carries (2.86 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns over the last four games. However, if Parker and Wilson are forced to miss this game, that opportunity isn’t going to shrink for Laird. He ran 27 pass routes last week, which was the eighth-most among running backs, and something that will provide him with a stable floor. The Giants are one of just two teams who’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back, though the 6.53 yards per target is above the league average. Laird should be considered a mid-level RB3 for this game who provides a solid floor, and that’s even if Parker/Wilson play. If they sit, Laird gets another slight bump.

Saquon Barkley: What were you doing October 27th? You know, before Halloween. Can’t remember? That’s the last time Barkley scored a touchdown. Based on his opportunity and where his touches have taken place, Barkley should be the No. 13 running back on the season. Instead, he’s No. 18. The craziest thing about it all is that Wayne Gallman got one start and scored 27.8 PPR points, which is better than all but one of Barkley’s games this year. This isn’t me saying Gallman is better, but rather Barkley is not performing to the level he should. He’s totaled at least 18 touches in every game since he returned from his ankle injury but has now finished outside the top-18 running backs in five straight games. The only good news is that Barkley has totaled 79-of-85 touches available to Giants running backs over the last four games. That’s a massive 92.9 percent touch share, which would do wonders against the Dolphins who’ve faced a ridiculous 31.7 running back touches per week. I mean, we even saw Bilal Powell and Ty Montgomery combine for 33 touches and 149 total yards in Week 14. On average, they’ve allowed 165.3 total yards per game to running backs, so if Barkley can simply be average with his touch share, he should get into the top-six running backs this week. Start him as a solid RB1 despite his recent struggles.

WRs
DeVante Parker: What a terrible break for Parker and his fantasy owners. He’s been one of the most stable presences in fantasy lineups all year and already had two catches for 28 yards on just 18 snaps before leaving with a concussion. We’ve seen a lot of players miss the following week, so for now, prepare to be without him. Make sure to check back here on Saturday for updates. *Update* Parker has not been fully cleared in the concussion protocol but he did shed his red no-contact jersey on Friday, which is a step in the right direction. If he were to take the field, Parker would walk back into must-start WR2 territory. 

Allen Hurns: Even prior to Parker’s concussion, Hurns was seeing solid targets in the Dolphins offense. He’s totaled 25 of them over the last four weeks, which ranks 30th among receivers in that time. With Parker leaving after 18 snaps last week, Hurns saw a season-high eight targets. He also finished with season-highs in receptions (5) and yardage (68). Granted, it was against the Jets, but this week is against the Giants, a team that’s allowed more fantasy points per target (2.07) than any other team in football. On the year, they’re allowing a 66.5 percent catch-rate, 9.73 yards per target, and a touchdown every 13.8 targets. By comparison, Tyler Lockett has averaged 10.05 yards per target and a touchdown every 14.5 targets. The Giants shifted around their secondary last week and had Janoris Jenkins in the slot, leaving DeAndre Baker and Sam Beal on the perimeter. Hurns moves all over the formation, so there’s not just one cornerback he’ll see, but he did play 50 percent of the slot snaps last week with Wilson out. Knowing how bad the Giants have been overall, he’s certainly in the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 conversation and should come with a stable floor if Parker is out. If Parker plays, Hurns is still someone on the low-end WR4 radar. *Update* Parker and Wilson are both progressing in the concussion protocol, though not fully cleared just yet. It’s a situation to monitor up until Sunday. 

Isaiah Ford: He played 55-of-72 snaps last week and saw a team-high nine targets that resulted in six receptions for 92 yards. That’ll happen when Parker and Wilson go into the concussion protocol, and you have both Jakeem Grant and Preston Williams on injured reserve. If Parker and Wilson are out this week, Ford is a realistic emergency option available in nearly every league. He just needs one of Parker/Wilson out to get into the starting lineup, but Parker is the big one to monitor, as he accounts for a 20 percent target share. Hurns moved into the slot, which means he could match up with Janoris Jenkins, leaving Ford with DeAndre Baker and Sam Beal. That’s good news for him, as that duo has combined to allow 43-of-73 passing for 719 yards and seven touchdowns in their coverage. If Parker and Wilson are out, Ford can be considered as a WR4 for this game. If just one of them is out, he falls into the WR5 territory. *Update* Parker and Wilson are both progressing in the concussion protocol, though not fully cleared just yet. It’s a situation to monitor up until Sunday. 

Sterling Shepard: As expected, Shepard was essentially a perimeter-only player with Golden Tate back in the lineup. The targets happened to go to Slayton this week, but we shouldn’t let one game influence our expected target shares, as Shepard has still seen at least six targets in every game and is averaging 8.0 per game. The Dolphins have a starting perimeter cornerback duo of Nike Needham and Ken Webster (was actually placed on IR this week) right now. That duo has allowed just a 55 percent catch-rate, but when they do allow a catch, it goes for plenty of fantasy points, as the 13.8 yards per catch and touchdown every 11.6 targets indicates. Here’s a fun fact about the Dolphins: They have allowed 12 wide receivers to finish as the WR11 or better, but no other receiver has finished better than WR25. That’s because there’s just one receiver who’s topped 51 yards without scoring. Knowing he may be competing for targets with Slayton, we have to keep expectations in check, making Shepard a high-end WR4.

Golden Tate: We knew it was going to be a tough matchup for Tate last week against the Eagles, but one catch for 11 yards? Yikes. He gets the ideal bounce-back spot against the Dolphins this week, who have been tormented through the slot all year, including three 20-point games to slot-heavy receivers Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. They’ve slowly run out of options of players to cover the slot, which leaves Jomal Wiltz out there, who’s allowed 25-of-35 passing for 300 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage. Three is a crowd among this wide receiver corps and someone is going to disappoint, but it shouldn’t be Tate who looks like a solid low-end WR3 this week.

Darius Slayton: He’s turned into a fantasy superstar overnight, racking up 38 targets over the last four games. It’s helped that there’s seemingly always someone out of the lineup, but he’s made the most of his opportunity, turning those targets into 25 receptions for 386 yards and four touchdowns. The shift to Manning only seemed to help him, too. While it was a good matchup on the perimeter, it was surprising to see him get more targets than Shepard. We must consider them on somewhat of an even playing field, though Shepard still gets the nudge, as he’s averaged 8.0 targets over the entire season. This matchup may actually suit Slayton’s role a bit more, as his 13.4-yard average depth of target aligns with the fact that the Dolphins have allowed 14.6 yards per reception and a miniscule 59.2 percent completion-rate. They allow plenty of big plays, as there’ve been 54 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, the fifth-most in the NFL. Slayton is in the mid-to-high-end WR4 conversation.

TEs
Mike Gesicki: What in the world happened to Gesicki last week? The Jets were without Jamal Adams, their best safety, while the Dolphins lost both Parker and Wilson to concussions, yet he wound-up with just one catch for six yards, his worst game since Week 4. He also saw five targets, which is still decent, but he’d had a five-game stretch where he saw at least six targets without those injuries. We’ll chalk it up to a bad game, as he’s been one of the more predictable tight ends over the last month and a half. The Giants placed Jabril Peppers on injured reserve prior to their Week 14 contest with the Eagles, and though that was a tough matchup for any defense, they allowed the tight ends to combine for 17 receptions, 169 yards, and two touchdowns. Rookie Julian Love is the one they’re trusting in coverage now, and he’s allowed 6-of-9 passing for 49 yards, one touchdown, and one interception over the last two weeks in a full-time role. If Parker and Wilson miss this game, Gesicki’s absolute target floor should be six targets, which is hard to find. Knowing what the Giants just allowed, combined with his targets, he should be in the low-end TE1 conversation.

Kaden Smith: Until we see Evan Engram back, it’s best to assume he’s not going to play. He was reportedly close last week but was ultimately ruled out the night before the game. But we did see the return of Tate to the lineup last week, and it clearly affected the target share available for the backup Giants tight end. The Dolphins have been somewhat of a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends, allowing five tight ends to finish in-between TE8 and TE14 with just one finishing better than that, and it was Mark Andrews way back in Week 1. In the end, there’s just not enough pass attempts to go around against the Dolphins, and knowing the Giants have at least four guys ahead of Smith in the pecking order, he’s not a recommended streamer. If Engram did return, he’d be someone to consider as a back-end TE1 with some risk off a multi-week injury.