The Primer: Week 14 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders

Total: 47.5
Line: TEN by 2.5

QBs
Ryan Tannehill: Since becoming the starter for the Titans in Week 7, Tannehill is the No. 5 quarterback in points per game, behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers. He is coming off his worst game as the starter, though it still netted almost 14 fantasy points. The Raiders are the perfect team for him to play and get back on track. Of the last nine quarterbacks they’ve played, seven of them have finished inside the top-16 quarterbacks, including five of them finishing top-six. They’ve been a funnel defense, allowing minimal production on the ground, but a sky-high 8.21 yards per attempt through the air (4th-highest), including a 6.70 percent touchdown-rate (2nd-highest). Quarterbacks have averaged just 33.6 attempts per game against them, though that’s been enough to allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. This almost describes what Tannehill has done as the starter, as he’s averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and thrown a touchdown on 6.82 percent of his attempts. We’ve also seen three quarterbacks rush for a touchdown, and two completely separate quarterbacks rush for 46-plus yards. Tannehill belongs in the low-end QB1 conversation this week.

Derek Carr: Most who watch football would say that Carr’s had a decent year outside of a few bad performances, right? Well, he’s yet to finish better than the QB10 in any given week. When you combine the low volume with lack of mobility, you have yourself a quarterback with a limited floor and ceiling. He essentially needs a matchup against a fast-paced team who puts a lot of points on the board, and one who allows efficiency. The Titans are tied for the second-fewest plays per game, rank 15th in points per game, and they haven’t allowed much efficiency through the air, as they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt. Obviously, it’s not a great time for Carr enthusiasts. He’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 this week. He would get a boost if Adoree Jackson can’t go (suffered knee injury in Week 13), though not likely enough to be a strong streamer.

RBs
Derrick Henry: Courtesy of Rich Hribar on Twitter, Henry is the first running back to rush for 140-plus yards in three straight games since Adrian Peterson in 2012. He just posted the first 100-yard game on the ground against the Colts under Matt Eberflus, and he did it with ease. Not only is the yardage there for him, but he’s scored seven touchdowns over the last four games. The Raiders haven’t been the best matchup for early-down running backs having allowed just 3.99 yards per carry and seven touchdowns through 12 games, though four of those touchdowns have come in the last four weeks. They can get worn down, though. There have been just four running backs who’ve totaled more than 12 carries against them. Here are the results of those running backs on the ground: Dalvin Cook 110/1, Melvin Gordon 108/1, Joe Mixon 86/1, and Carlos Hyde 83/0. They’ve had good results. Henry has topped that 12-carry mark in every game this year. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in 10-of-12 games this year, so feel free to start him as the elite RB1 that he is.

Josh Jacobs: We talked about the win/loss splits with Jacobs last week and they continued in Week 13. For whatever reason, he is not used in the passing-game in games they fall behind. There was one play where Jacobs went out into the flat and was essentially doing jumping jacks to try and get Carr’s attention, as he was uncovered. The Raiders are underdogs in this game, but it’s a winnable one, so we shouldn’t automatically assume the win/loss splits apply. The Titans had been a really good run defense under Mike Vrabel, though they’ve slipped a bit since Week 8. Over their last four games, they’ve allowed 414 yards on 96 carries (4.31 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns. Running backs have been targeted quite a bit against the Titans, as the 8.3 targets per game ranks as the second-most. There have been just seven running backs who’ve finished better than the RB24 against the Titans, which is not great odds, but it’s possible that Jacobs is catching them at the right time. You’re not considering sitting Jacobs, who’s seen at least 17 touches in eight of the last nine games, so plug him in as a solid RB2 who has RB1 upside if he’s used in the passing game. *Update* Jacobs is reportedly dealing with a fractured shoulder and is likely going to be a game-time decision this week. He hasn’t practiced much all week, according to Jon Gruden. His replacement would be DeAndre Washington, though Jalen Richard would be mixing in on passing downs. Washington would be a high-end RB4 while Richard has middling RB4 value in PPR formats.

WRs
Corey Davis: It’s crazy to think Tannehill is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback since taking over as the starter, but Davis has just one game with more than 8.8 PPR points with him under center. His targets have declined each week, too, going 7-6-5-3-2 over his last five games. It doesn’t help that their pass attempts are down, but that’s not likely to change against the Raiders, who’ve seen an average of just 33.6 pass attempts per game. Because of that, receivers have averaged just 17.8 targets per game, a number that would actually be a ton for the Titans receiver group. As a team, their receivers have averaged just 15.4 targets per game on the year. The cornerback duo of Daryl Worley and Trayvon Mullen is absolutely nothing to be concerned about, but this all comes back to Davis not being targeted enough or producing enough to be relied upon as anything more than a WR5.

A.J. Brown: Targets have been extremely hard to come by for Titans receivers, but Brown continues to make the most of them. He’s seen an average of 5.0 targets over the last four weeks and turned them into 12 receptions for 278 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders have allowed 19 different wide receivers to finish with at least 50 yards against them, which is the floor we’re looking for when streaming receivers. He’s going to see Daryl Worley in coverage about 55-60 percent of the time, a veteran cornerback who’s allowed just 32-of-61 passing for 454 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage this year. He’s allowed just 3.66 yards after the catch (37th among 125 cornerbacks), which hurts Brown a bit, as he’s someone who’s been creating most of his production after the catch. He deserves WR4 consideration, though he does have a bit of volatility in his range of outcomes.

Tyrell Williams: You would’ve thought that Williams would see an increase in targets with Hunter Renfrow on the shelf, but that didn’t happen. He’s now seen in-between 4-6 targets in each of his last six games and has averaged just 2.7 receptions per game during that time. He has topped 48 yards just twice since Week 1, which hardly suggests he’s a must-start every week. In fact, you need to find a reason to play him. Do we have that reason against the Titans? Maybe. It seems like their top cornerback Adoree Jackson is 50/50 at best this week, and they were already down Malcolm Butler (injured reserve) and LeShaun Sims (ankle). That would leave a trio of Logan Ryan (who mans the slot in three-wide), Tye Smith, and Kareem Orr at cornerback. Smith is a former fifth-round pick from 2015 who’s played 289 career snaps, while Orr is an undrafted rookie who played his first snaps last week. When healthy, the Titans were an average matchup for receivers, but if Jackson is forced to miss this game (appears that way knowing he didn’t practice all week), Williams is likely to get back into the high-end WR4 conversation.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: Many thought Smith would be the one to produce with Delanie Walker on injured reserve, but that wasn’t the case in Week 13 as Anthony Firkser led the way with four targets, three receptions, and 22 yards while Smith caught two balls for zero yards. I still believe Smith is the better option of the two, as he’s the one who ran 17 routes compared to Firkser’s 12 routes, though it’s clear we can’t trust either of them in the fantasy playoffs. It’s really too bad because the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They’ve allowed a top-16 performance in 8-of-12 games with a large part of that production coming from touchdowns, as seven different tight ends have scored against them. We don’t want to play touchdown roulette in the fantasy playoffs, so avoid this ugly timeshare if possible.

Darren Waller: As expected, Waller walked right back into the role he had earlier this season with Hunter Renfrow on the shelf. He totaled nine targets, hauling seven of them in for 100 yards. It was his third 100-yard performance of the year. He’s the only tight end in the NFL that can say that. The Titans have allowed four different tight ends to rack up 70-plus yards against them this season, including Jack Doyle‘s 6/73/1 last week. Even outside of those 70-plus yard games, there’ve been four other tight ends who’ve hit pay dirt against them, which has provided a stable floor. Knowing how many injuries they have in their secondary right now, it’s going to be tough for the Titans to devote more attention to stopping Waller. He belongs in lineups as a high-end TE1 every week and this matchup is no different.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 43.5
Line: PIT by 2.5

QBs
Devlin Hodges: He’s now played about 2.5 games of football and has averaged just 10.4 pass attempts per half, which amounts to just 20.8 pass attempts per game. He’s thrown just one touchdown in each start and doesn’t offer much on the ground. This is the question: Just how much does a matchup matter? The Cardinals have now allowed 10-of-12 quarterbacks to finish as the QB11 or better. When splitting everything up, the 0.59 fantasy points per actual pass attempt they’ve allowed ranks second-most in the league, behind only the Dolphins. When you add in that teams have averaged 38.6 attempts per game against them, there’s a massive ceiling to be had. Mike Tomlin doesn’t want that. He wants a boring game where his defense wins it and they run the ball more than they throw it. Because of that, it’s impossible to trust Hodges outside of 2QB leagues. He’s likely to wind-up with a solid floor, but you also must remember that if he struggles, he’s going to have a short leash. There are just too many “ifs” in his scenario.

Kyler Murray: He was coming off three straight games with 23-plus fantasy points, so when you heard about his hamstring, you kind of wanted to ignore the warning sign and play him anyway. It didn’t seem to limit him so much, as he did rush for 28 yards and a touchdown, but he didn’t have a good fantasy outing against the Rams. He’ll stay at home this week, though the matchup doesn’t get any easier. The Steelers bring more pressure than any other team in the league. Their sack-rate of 9.45 percent ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, so they’re finishing, too. The reason you want to believe in Murray is due to the fact that he overcame the 49ers’ intense pass-rush to finish as a top-six quarterback in both matchups. The Steelers have allowed the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks this year, and the craziest part of that is that they allowed their two biggest games in Weeks 1 and 2 when Minkah Fitzpatrick wasn’t on the team. Since acquiring him, they’ve allowed just 6.11 yards per attempt with 11 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions over the span of 10 games. They’ve allowed just one quarterback to finish better than the QB16 during that time, too. In fact, they’re the only team to hold Lamar Jackson to less than 21.3 fantasy points (he scored just 11.4 against them). Murray may be able to overcome the tough matchup with some rushing totals, but he’s more of a high-end QB2 this week than a locked-in must-start option.

RBs
James Conner, Benny Snell, and Jaylen Samuels: This backfield will be decided by Conner’s health, but knowing that he was ‘doubtful’ last week meant there was a small outside chance he played, telling us he should be close to returning. The Cardinals are a slightly below average run defense, though many teams have chosen to go through the air against them, as they’ve been even more susceptible there. On the year, there have been seven running backs who’ve totaled 18 or more carries against the Cardinals, and each of them rushed for a minimum of 72 yards, while four of them scored a rushing touchdown. If you want to go even further, there’s been three running backs who’ve totaled 20-plus carries, and each of them went for more than 100 yards on the ground. Volume does well against them. They’ve also allowed 1.85 PPR points through the air, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league, though the roles seem to be split between Samuels and Snell when Conner is out. If Conner is back, he might be somewhat eased back in, which is the concerning part, but you kind of have to play him knowing Hodges is under center (Tomlin doesn’t want to throw the ball 40 times). If Conner plays, he’s a middling RB2 for this game who comes with more risk than he usually would, especially considering how well Snell has done the last two weeks. If Conner sits, Snell would be the early-down back whose role would suffer dramatically if the Cardinals jumped out to a lead, while Samuels would take over on passing downs. Knowing Snell has seen just three targets all season, he’s a Carlos Hyde-type play where you need a touchdown for him to get into top-30 range. Consider him a middling RB3 if Conner sits. Samuels saw his role grow a bit last week with plenty of touches to go around, so he remains in the RB4 conversation with guys like Duke Johnson and Nyheim Hines. *Update* Conner has been ruled out for this game. 

Kenyan Drake and David Johnson: As expected, Drake led the charge in the Cardinals backfield out of the bye week. He played 50 snaps while Johnson kicked in 15 of them. They’re also getting Chase Edmonds back this week, which further cloudies the situation. Drake also out-touched Johnson 15-6, which is typically enough to start a player with confidence. The Steelers are a brutal matchup for running backs, as Kareem Hunt was the first running back (last week) to score more than 13.8 PPR points against them and finish better than the RB17. He was just the eighth running back to finish better than RB30 against them. Timeshare or not, you’d have to go all the way back to Week 3 to find the last time they allowed a team of running backs to combine for more than 104 yards on the ground. Even through the air, they’re allowing just 1.28 PPR points per target which ranks as the third-lowest number in the league. All-in-all, only the 49ers and Patriots have allowed fewer points per opportunity to running backs. Ideally, you wait to see how this timeshare shakes out in a brutal matchup, though Drake is somewhat playable as a low-end RB3 with minimal upside.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Mike Tomlin came out early in the week and said Smith-Schuster will be questionable for this game, though it’s tough to know what that means. He’s been out the last two weeks with his concussion and knee injury but returning against the Cardinals would be a good thing for his production. Only the Bucs and Giants have allowed more fantasy points to receivers this year. Smith-Schuster has run 63 percent of his routes from the slot, which is the area the Cardinals have been beat most. When covering the slot, they’ve allowed 91-of-114 passing (79.8 percent) for 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns. They actually cut Tramaine Brock after the game, which leaves them with Kevin Peterson to cover the slot. He’s a former undrafted free agent who’s allowed 14-of-19 passing for 224 yards in his coverage this year. If Smith-Schuster gets back on the field, he can be considered a low-end WR3 who should be able to take advantage of this matchup. *Update* Smith-Schuster has been ruled out for this game.

James Washington: He’s the one whose status depends on Smith-Schuster the most, as his role changes significantly with Smith-Schuster off the field. He ran 61 percent of his routes from the slot last week, which is huge in this matchup, as he’d avoid Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals best cornerback. Prior to Week 13, Washington had run just 22 percent of his routes from the slot. Knowing Washington has at least 49 yards in each of his last five games gives us confidence heading into this matchup, but he’d go from a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 with Smith-Schuster out, to a weak WR4/5 option if Smith-Schuster plays. *Update* Smith-Schuster has been ruled out, moving Washington up the rankings. 

Christian Kirk: It was a tough matchup against the Rams and Kirk’s numbers showed it. He finished with just three catches for 23 yards but did see seven targets. He’s averaged 8.7 targets per game this year, which is an astronomical number that not many get to, but his production has been less-than-stellar. Last year, with Josh Rosen under center, he totaled 43/590/3 on 68 targets. Through nine games with Murray, he’s totaled 49/531/3 on 78 targets. Odd, right? The Steelers have been another tough matchup for receivers, as there’s been just six receivers who’ve cracked the top-24 against them. Kirk has been lining up at RWR quite often as of late, which means he’ll see veteran Joe Haden much of the time. Haden is not someone you actively target in matchups, as he’s allowed just a 51.6 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year with a miniscule 10.9 yards per reception. You have to start Kirk with the volume he’s getting but don’t rely on more than low-end WR3 numbers in this tough matchup.

Larry Fitzgerald: Is he getting a burst towards the end of the season? He’s now finished with at least five catches in each of the last three games and has averaged 54.7 yards per game in them. It’s sad to think I may only write about Fitzgerald in The Primer just three more times. In a game they’ll struggle to run the ball, we should see five-plus targets for Fitzgerald here. Since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers have been a much better unit up the middle of their defense and have allowed just 48-of-78 passing for 492 yards and three touchdowns in the slot over that time. That amounts to just 6.31 yards per target and a touchdown every 26.0 targets. Knowing Kirk has his hands full on the perimeter, Fitzgerald is likely to be leaned on a bit, but he’s a very low-upside option, leaving him in middling WR4 territory. He likely comes with a higher floor than most in that range, so it just depends on what you’re looking for.

TEs
Vance McDonald: We’ve reached a truly tough crossroads with the tight end position and just how bad the Cardinals defense is against them. Is McDonald worse than they are? Maybe. He’s totaled 46 targets this year but you (yes, you reading this) have as many games with more than 40 yards than he does. Hodges has started two games, and in those games, McDonald has totaled just four targets combined. Ugh. The Cardinals have allowed a 76.0 percent completion-rate (highest in NFL), 9.40 yards per target (2nd-highest), and a touchdown every 8.0 targets (most often). It all amounts to 2.45 PPR points per target. It’s kind of ridiculous at this point. This matchup is literally the only time you should contemplate McDonald. We can’t guarantee more than a few targets with how little Hodges throws, so he’s a borderline TE1/TE2 this week who you don’t have to use if you really don’t want to.

Charles Clay: The Primer gets a bye week here.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 46.5
Line: SEA by 2.5

QBs
Russell Wilson: As a fantasy asset, Wilson has kind of been all over the place this year. He’s had seven games with less than 17.0 fantasy points but has 24.2 or more fantasy points in the other five games. He’s now thrown for 241 yards or less in five of his last six games. Heading into a matchup with the Rams, that’s not great. There have been just three games this year where they’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes. Those were also the only three games they allowed more than 7.36 yards per attempt to the opposing quarterback. Who were those quarterbacks? Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, and… Wilson himself. He completed 17-of-23 passes for 268 yards and four touchdowns in their first matchup, though it’s important to note this defense looks a lot different than they did the last time, as Marcus Peters is gone, and Jalen Ramsey is in. There’s been no in-between with this defense, as the opposing quarterback has either finished top-three or they’ve finished as the QB14 or worse. It’s tough to say you should count out Wilson, who has been ultra-efficient against them over their last three meetings. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in each of those games and has averaged 9.17 yards per attempt. I do believe Ramsey is a great cornerback, but he’s not going to completely transform the defense. The 6.69 yards per attempt they’re allowing is the fifth-best mark in the league, so it’s logical to expect a low yardage total with a couple touchdowns thrown in, as Wilson still leads the league in those (26). He should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB1 this week.

Jared Goff: He did exactly as he was expected to last week against the Cardinals. He took advantage of a plus-matchup, which is something he’s done this year. The next question is: Are the Seahawks one of those plus-matchups we seek? Not exactly, though they’re not as good as some think, either. They have allowed 8-of-12 quarterbacks finish as the QB14 or better this year, with the four who failed to do so being Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Mason Rudolph, though each of them threw at least one touchdown. They have yet to allow a quarterback average more than 8.85 yards per attempt but have allowed four 335-plus yard games because there has been six different quarterbacks who’ve totaled at least 44 pass attempts. Goff was one of them when he completed 29-of-49 passes for 395 yards and one touchdown back in their Week 5 meeting. In their two matchups last year, Goff totaled 321/1 and 318/2, though it is worth noting that was before his bad stretch started. Is this a defense that he and McVay understand well? It’s possible. Goff should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2 while at home this week. Don’t forget he’s still thrown just 20 touchdowns in his last 20 games.

RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: So, as it turns out, Carson still retains the starting job, but Penny is much more involved. Carson totaled 24 touches against the Vikings that turned into 109 yards and a touchdown while Penny saw 19 touches that turned into 107 yards and a touchdown. There will not be 43 touches to go around every week. The good news is that there were 36 touches between them in the first meeting between these two teams. Carson totaled 123 yards and a touchdown in that game, while Penny finished with 51 total yards. The Rams have been the fifth-worst matchup for running backs from an efficiency standpoint, as they’ve allowed just 0.73 PPR points per opportunity. If we take away Christian McCaffrey‘s absurd performance in Week 1, they’d look even better. There’s been just nine running backs all year who’ve finished better than the RB30 against the Rams, with eight of them totaling at least 15 carries. The Vikings were one of the best in the league against the run, so we surely aren’t writing off these backs, but they both aren’t going to finish as top-15 options again. Treat this as a 55/45 split until further notice, which makes Carson a low-end RB2 while Penny should be treated as a low-end RB3.

Todd Gurley: In case you missed it or moved on, Gurley is back into the workhorse role he had last year. Over the last three games, he’s totaled 57 opportunities while Malcolm Brown has had 13, and Darrell Henderson has had just four. Running backs have only averaged 23.6 touches and 123.3 total yards per game against the Seahawks, so that’s big news for Gurley, who appears to be locked into 75-plus percent of the work. If there’s been a team that Gurley has absolutely demolished in the NFL, it’s the Seahawks. Here’s a chart of his last four games against them.

This doesn’t guarantee anything, though it should make you feel a bit better about starting him as your RB2. The Seahawks haven’t been a run defense to attack this year, as they’ve allowed just one running back to eclipse 69 yards on the ground. They have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, which is the fourth-most in the league, so teams are having success near the goal-line. While those are extremely volatile to depend on, it’s clear that McVay’s offense – and Gurley in particular – does well in that area of the field against them. It’s unlikely he rushes for 100 yards or anything, but Gurley should be able to live up to mid-to-high-end RB2 numbers.

WRs
Tyler Lockett: There are many wondering what to do with Lockett after his zero-catch performance on Monday night football. You really don’t have a choice but to play him. He’s a volatile player to begin with, and he was also reportedly dealing with the flu last weekend. Provided he practices in full at some point this week, we have to assume he’s healthy. The matchup with the Rams isn’t a particularly good one, as Nickell Robey-Coleman is the one he’ll see in coverage. Despite covering the slot – where a high catch-rate is expected – he’s allowed just 29-of-49 for 259 yards and one touchdown in his coverage. The last time these two teams met, Lockett finished with four catches for 51 yards and a touchdown, though he only saw four targets, so it’s not an appealing matchup for him in the slot. You have to lower expectations for Lockett, as he hasn’t been the same player since hurting his leg in the 49ers game. He should still be in the high-end WR3 conversation.

D.K. Metcalf: At what point do we anoint Metcalf as the No. 1 receiver for Wilson? He’s now seen 46 targets over the last six games and in that time, he’s averaged 4.7 receptions for 61.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Over the course of a full 16-game season, that’d be 123 targets, 75 receptions, 984 yards, and eight touchdowns. Those are every-week starter numbers. He’s going to be pushed this week, though. Lining up at LWR where he does almost all the time, you have to wonder if the Rams just stick Jalen Ramsey on him all game. Ramsey has been on the other side of the field when he’s not shadowing, so there’s a chance he doesn’t see Metcalf very often, but using rational coaching, it makes sense. Ramsey has allowed 20-of-28 passes to be completed in his coverage with the Rams but he’s allowed 253 yards and no touchdowns on them. Still, the Rams have allowed just one 100-yard receiver all season, so it’s not like it’s a playground outside of Ramsey. Metcalf should be right there with Lockett in the mid-to-high-end WR3 range.

Josh Gordon/David Moore: Many will see Moore’s performance in Week 13 and think he’s jumped Gordon into the No. 3 role. That’s not the case. Gordon played 27 snaps and ran 18 routes, while Moore played just 10 snaps and ran 8 routes. There’s going to be volatility with any receiver who plays less than half the snaps, which means neither of these two can be trusted in season-long leagues. If the Rams shadow Metcalf with Jalen Ramsey, I’d expect Gordon to take advantage of that, but as someone who’s still yet to see more than two targets in a game, you can’t trust him.

Cooper Kupp: It was good to see him get back into the end zone after a three-week hiatus, though he’s still failed to top 65 yards in each of his last four games. He has a date with Jamar Taylor in the slot this week, a cornerback who’s allowed 103.2 QB Rating in his coverage, which ranks as the 19th highest of 60 cornerbacks/safeties who qualify. Over the last three games with the Seahawks, Kupp has totaled 9/117/1, 5/39/0 (tore ACL mid-game), and 6/90/1 (left with concussion mid-game). It’s fair to say he’s had a lot of success against them. Kupp should be able to find the soft spots in the zone once again and should be in lineups as a middling WR2 while Goff remains unstable.

Robert Woods: Holy targets, Batman! Woods saw 19 targets in Week 13, which was the second time this year he caught 13 passes. He’s now up to 835 yards on the season, though he’s still without a receiving touchdown. That’s got to even out at some point. He’s going to see Shaquill Griffin the most, which is a problem, as he’s their top cornerback. He was the one who allowed the touchdown to Laquon Treadwell last week, but that was based on missed communication in their zone coverage. In their first meeting, Woods was held to just five catches for 48 yards on nine targets. This matchup better suits Kupp and Cooks, though Woods’ target share is too hard to pass up as a middling WR3.

Brandin Cooks: If there were a week for him to pop back up on the radar due to his matchup, it’s this one. He’s going to see Tre Flowers in coverage most of the time, the Seahawks weak link. Over the last three weeks, he’s allowed 17 receptions for 202 yards in his coverage. He’s allowed four plays of 30-plus yards in his coverage this year, so he’s prone to the big play. The issue has been Goff’s accuracy down the field. With his lack of competence down the field, they’ve dialed back the targets to Cooks and he’s seen four or less in five of his last six games. Because of that, you can’t trust Cooks as anything more than a WR4, but he should amount to more than that in this matchup.

TEs
Jacob Hollister: He’s now seen 28 targets over the last four weeks, which is more than enough for any tight end to be considered a streamer, let alone one who’s getting his targets from Russell Wilson. Knowing the tough matchups for Metcalf and Lockett, we could see him garner a big role in the offense this week. The Rams have allowed a healthy 7.73 yards per target to tight ends this year, though they’ve faced just 75 targets on the season, or 6.3 per game, keeping the totals down. There have been five tight ends who’ve finished as top-10 options against them, including Will Dissly, who tallied four catches for 81 yards on just four targets in their Week 5 meeting. Knowing that it’s a somewhat neutral matchup, Hollister can be safely played as a high-end TE2 who should come with a solid floor.

Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee: For those who went to the “play any tight end against the Cardinals” well last week, you’re happy you did. Higbee racked-up seven catches for 107 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in Everett’s absence, which could extend another week. McVay said he’s day-to-day, which means nothing is quite set in stone. It’s a good matchup that we would like some clarity on, as the Seahawks have allowed the second-most fantasy points in the league to the tight end position, behind only those Cardinals that Higbee destroyed last week. Speaking of destroyed, the Week 5 game against the Seahawks was when Everett was really first put on the fantasy map this year when he totaled seven catches for 136 yards. They have now allowed eight different tight ends to finish as the TE14 or better this year, which makes it a good possibility we can find one here. Ideally, Everett sits so they don’t share the workload. We also wouldn’t have to worry about risk or re-injury. If Everett is out, Higbee could be streamed as a high-end TE2. Everett should be in that same conversation if he plays but he also comes with more risk. *Update* Everett has missed practice all week and is likely going to be ruled out for a second straight game.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 47.0
Line: PHI by 8.5

QBs
Eli Manning or Daniel Jones: The up and downs of a rookie season are a real thing for quarterbacks, but it’s been quite remarkable with Jones, especially when it comes to fantasy. He’s scored 28-plus fantasy points in 3-of-10 starts but has scored 12.3 or less in six of the other games. You essentially have to pick which type of game it’ll be for him. It may be a decision that’s made for you this week, as Manning has been deemed “likely to start” while Jones deals with an ankle sprain. The Eagles have been similar to Jones as a defense, as there’ve been seven quarterbacks who’ve finished with 17.3 or more fantasy points while the other five finished with 12.1 or less. They looked like a hot mess against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins last week, but they had been playing better the previous three weeks, holding the combination of Mitch Trubisky, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson to just 541 yards and one touchdown… combined. It could’ve simply been one of those games they took too lightly. The one thing we do know about the Eagles defense is that they get pressure to the opposing quarterback, as they have the second-highest average pressure-rate. The combination of Manning/Jones has been under pressure on 40.0 percent of their dropbacks, which is the highest mark in the NFL. This likely means a lot of checkdowns for Manning. He threw for 281 yards and 297 yards against the Eagles last year, though he threw for just one touchdown. He’s a low-end QB2 this week if Jones sits.

Carson Wentz: It’s now been four straight games where Wentz has averaged less than 6.8 yards per attempt. He’s missing easy throws that most competent quarterbacks make, and it’s affected his fantasy output, as you’d have to go way back to Week 6 to find the last time he finished with more than 15 fantasy points. I’m fairly certain he’d have to actively try to not play well this Monday night. Earlier this year, I called the Giants “Dolphins Lite” but I may have had it the other way around, as the Giants have been worse. The only two quarterbacks who’ve failed to finish as top-12 options against them were rookie quarterbacks (Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins). Outside of those two quarterbacks, every quarterback has accounted for at least two touchdowns, whether it be passing or rushing. The 8.47 yards per attempt they’ve allowed is the highest mark in the league, while the 5.68 percent touchdown-rate ranks fifth-highest. Playing at home with their playoffs hopes on the line, Wentz needs to be the one to carry them over the Giants. He should be able to deliver a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 performance.

RBs
Saquon Barkley: His 4.4 yards per carry last week was his highest since Week 2, which is a step in the right direction, though we’ve already talked countless times about what he needs to be a fantasy superstar. Long runs. The Eagles have allowed just eight runs of 20-plus yards this season, so while it’s not likely, it’s not impossible. When playing DFS, the Eagles are a team I actively try to avoid playing running backs against, outside of tournaments. They’re better than average in every stat that matters to running backs, including the miniscule 3.60 yards per carry and 5.49 yards per target. Running backs have totaled just 69.1 rushing yards per game against them, and that’s as a team. There has been just one starting running back who’s totaled more than 43 yards against them, and that was Ezekiel Elliott, which was also a divisional game. These teams know each other pretty well at this point. In two games against the Eagles last year (they were still very good), Barkley totaled 13/130/1 in the first meeting and then 13/101/1 in the next one, so big runs were clearly a part of his games. He also caught 20 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown in those two games combined, because well, Manning checks down. It’s a good thing for Barkley that he’s back under center. You plug Barkley in as a low-end RB1 and hope he breaks those long runs, because outside of those, he’s just a mediocre RB2.

Miles Sanders: Over the last two weeks with Jordan Howard on the shelf, Sanders has totaled 44 touches and played 124-of-143 snaps. I purposely left out the Patriots game, as that’ll negatively impact anyone’s numbers. Sanders has compiled 191 total yards and a touchdown the last two weeks, though it’s still felt a bit empty. Maybe it’s because they played the Dolphins in one of them. If Howard remains out, Sanders will play a Giants defense that has played extremely well against the run over the last three weeks. It coincides with them acquiring Leonard Williams from the Jets, as he’s had a massive impact against the run. During those last three weeks, Le’Veon Bell, David Montgomery, and Aaron Jones each failed to finish with more than 68 total yards. Bell was the only one who found the end zone, propping him up to an RB10 finish. The Jets, Bears, and Packers backfields combined to average just 2.38 yards per carry in those games. The point is that it’s not a pushover matchup on the ground. The only two running backs who’ve scored more than 16.8 PPR points against them this year have been the two running backs who totaled 27-plus touches. Sanders should be started as a low-end RB2 if Howard remains out, but it’s not as great of a spot as some may think.

WRs
Sterling Shepard: With Golden Tate on the shelf, it moved Shepard into the slot for 80-plus percent of his routes last week, which was the tougher matchup against the Packers. His touchdown came on one of the seven routes he ran on the perimeter. It was actually the first perimeter touchdown of his career. The matchup against the Eagles is also better on the perimeter, which makes us hopeful that Tate returns by Monday night. Shepard has seen nine targets in each of the two games that he and Tate have played together, so there’s enough targets to go around. He’ll line up across from both Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills, but mostly the latter. Mills has been an extremely hit-or-miss cornerback in his time, and he is coming off two of the worst games of his career. In those games, he’s allowed 11-of-16 passing for 203 yards and three touchdowns. The matchup is not one to worry about with Shepard who’s seen at least seven targets in every game. He should be considered a stable WR3 this week.

Golden Tate: We aren’t likely going to have clarity on his status until later in the week, but for now, we’ll expect him to play. There’s only been two games that Tate and Shepard have been on the field together, and it would appear Shepard is higher on the pecking order, as he’s out-targeted Tate 18-13 in those games. Tate would also have the tougher matchup this week, as Avonte Maddox has arguably been the best of the Eagles starters. We’re now 13 weeks into the season and the Eagles haven’t allowed a slot-heavy receiver more than 53 yards, which includes Julian Edelman, Cole Beasley, Mohamed Sanu (with the Falcons), Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder, Randall Cobb, and Anthony Miller. There are some good names on that list, and it’s not like the Eagles don’t know Tate’s strengths and weaknesses. Tate should be considered a high-end WR4 against the Eagles rather than the stable WR3 he’s been.

Darius Slayton: With both Evan Engram and Golden Tate out of the lineup, it allowed Slayton to see nine targets against the Packers last week. It seems we may get both back this week, which would surely hamper our trust in Slayton. He’s clearly carved out a bigger role in the offense, as he’s seen 30 targets over the last three weeks, but with other important pieces in and out of the lineup has clearly influenced that. The Eagles are a team to attack on the perimeter, though. The combination of Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills haven’t been what you’d describe as “good” in coverage this year, allowing a combined 98.2 QB Rating in their coverage. Each of the eight wide receivers who’ve totaled 100-plus yards against them have been primary perimeter options. The big wildcard here is not knowing who will play. If both Tate and Engram play, he’s the No. 5 option in the passing game. If they’re both out, he’s the No. 3 option. With this game not being played until Monday night, it’s best to err on the side of caution and consider him a low-end WR4/high-end WR5 who would be upgraded if Tate/Engram were out.

Alshon Jeffery: So, apparently his ankle is just fine, eh? Jeffery has seen at least five targets in every game but has seen eight-plus targets in five of the last seven games. With the Giants run defense playing as well as they are, the Giants have allowed six top-24 receivers in their last three games. Demaryius Thomas, Jamison Crowder, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard were the ones to get there, so it’s not like they were playing Michael Thomas and Julio Jones in each of those games. There have been 12 receivers who’ve seen eight-plus targets against them, and Randall Cobb was the only one who failed to score at least 13.7 PPR points (he scored 9.5, so it wasn’t a complete waste). The Giants have kind of given up the whole Janoris Jenkins shadow bit, as he’s just not a dominant player anymore. If the Eagles were wise, they’d line Jeffery up on the left side of the formation much more often to get him matched-up with DeAndre Baker, who’s allowed a 135.3 rating in his coverage this year. Jeffery should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 for this contest and has some upside.

Nelson Agholor: Despite the fact that he’s averaged 6.2 targets over the last six games, Agholor hasn’t topped 42 yards in any of them. He’s one of the least efficient receivers in football while averaging just 5.3 yards per target this season. By comparison, the Patriots have allowed 5.5 yards per target to wide receivers. Can the Giants incompetent secondary allow him to get back on the radar? As a team, they’ve allowed a league-high 10.0 yards per target to receivers and have allowed six different receivers finish as top-24 options over their last three games. The worst finish that a receiver had while getting more than five targets against them was six catches for 35 yards, which isn’t lineup-killing. It’s incredibly hard to trust him in season-long leagues as anything more than a low-end WR4/high-end WR5, even if this matchup does suggest he should be more. *Update* He has missed practice on both Thursday and Friday, which has his status for this game in doubt. 

TEs
Evan Engram or Kaden Smith: If you own Engram and want to play him this week, you should be grabbing Smith as insurance with this game being on Monday night. It’s not a great matchup to target, however. There have been just three tight ends who’ve scored double-digit PPR points against the Eagles this year, and each of them totaled seven-plus targets, something that’d be difficult to rely on if everyone is healthy. Smith has seen six and eight targets over the last two weeks, but you can’t forget that Tate missed last week’s game, the one he saw eight targets in. There are many variables in the projection of these two, but the worst-case scenario would be that Engram plays in a limited role. That’s a real possibility that’s the case while coming off a multi-week injury. Knowing the Eagles have allowed the ninth-fewest points to the position, you should probably use that as your excuse to avoid the situation all together. If Engram plays, he’s a risky low-end TE1. If Engram sits, Smith would be in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation with how many targets he’s received as of late.

Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: There were some question marks surrounding Ertz’s hamstring last week, but he did play a full complement of snaps, so we must assume he’s okay. He was out-targeted and out-produced by Goedert, though. The Giants were without safety Jabril Peppers last week, though the Packers only targeted their tight ends four times, which resulted in two catches for 17 yards and a touchdown. On the year, they have allowed the third-fewest points to the tight end position, though they have only faced an average of 5.0 targets per week. Let’s be clear: That won’t happen this week. The Eagles duo has averaged 13.3 targets per game. On a per-play basis, the Giants have allowed 1.75 PPR points per target, which is actually above the league average. Both of these tight ends should be considered must-plays in this matchup with Ertz as a high-end TE1 and Goedert as a middling TE1.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Total: 42.5
Line: DAL by 3.0

QBs
Dak Prescott: He just tied the highest fantasy output in the last two years against the Bills, though the results of the game weren’t exactly what the Cowboys were hoping. He’s going to have another tough time posting elite fantasy numbers against the Bears, who may have taken the competition lightly last week. It seems to be a trend with them. Here are the four quarterbacks who’ve thrown more than one touchdown against them: Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, Daniel Jones, and David Blough. Some of the quarterbacks who threw 0-1 touchdowns included: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, and Jared Goff. Oddly enough, Goff was the only one who was able to top 7.72 yards per attempt against them, while Keenum was the only quarterback to throw for 300 yards. That’s saying something considering quarterbacks have averaged a healthy 36.3 pass attempts per game. This game will be outside the Cowboys typical elements, as the temps will be around freezing. Prescott has played in six games that were 40 degrees or below, and in those games, he’s thrown 10 touchdowns and four interceptions with a QB Rating right around 90, so it hasn’t been much of a problem for him. The biggest question for Prescott is the gameplan, as the Cowboys simply abandoned the run way too fast last week and lost as a result of it. Knowing the Bears have yet to allow a quarterback a 20-point performance, Prescott should be considered a low-end QB1 this week, though his performance last week did earn him some trust.

Mitch Trubisky: After getting benched (he wasn’t hurt) against the Rams, Trubisky has bounced back the last two weeks, totaling 616 yards and four touchdowns. While it hasn’t all been pretty, he’s played better as of late. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are coming to town, and they’re a much better defense than the Giants or Lions. They’ve allowed just 6.85 yards per attempt and a 3.19 percent touchdown-rate on the year, both of which rank inside the top-10 marks in football. Like the Bears, they’ve struggled as of late. Over the last three weeks, Jeff Driskel and Josh Allen combined to complete 34-of-50 passes for 440 yards and three touchdowns, but gained a ton of their value on the ground. Each of them rushed for at least 43 yards and a touchdown. We haven’t seen Trubisky do that much this year, as he’s still yet to reach 20 yards on the ground. If he’s forced to beat them through the air, he’s likely going to have some issues, as they’ve allowed just 3-of-11 quarterbacks to average more than 7.35 yards per attempt and no quarterbacks to throw for more than two touchdowns. He’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 this week. This offense needs to start designing runs for him like they did last year.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: After starting out the game with over 60 yards in the first 10 minutes of the Thanksgiving game, the Cowboys started to abandon the run. It’s fair to say that didn’t work. The Bears run defense hasn’t been one to fear as of late, allowing 784 yards on 203 carries with nine touchdowns in the eight games without defensive tackle Akiem Hicks. The 3.86 yards per carry isn’t massive or anything, but it’s worth noting they didn’t allow a running back more than 39 yards on the ground with Hicks but have allowed five running backs to hit 80-plus yards without him. It helps that six of the last nine teams have had a running back with at least 17 carries, but that’s another plus for Elliott. It’s getting tiring waiting around for the top-three performance out of Elliott, but you’ll continue to trot him out there as a middling RB1 who does come with a very stable floor. The Bears haven’t won a game by more than seven points since back in Week 4, so there’s very little gamescript concern in this one.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen: We knew the workhorse role was coming for Montgomery, but not many realize it’s been that way for a while. His touch totals since Week 8 have been 31-17-17-15-15-18. Whenever you have a 15-plus touch running back, you’re likely going to play him every week. The Cowboys have been a very average run defense this year, though it hasn’t helped they’ve been without Leighton Vander Esch the last two weeks, and now have Sean Lee dealing with some sort of soft tissue injury. If they’re missing both linebackers, it weakens their defense considerably. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed 400 yards on 102 carries (3.92 yards per carry) with two touchdowns on the ground, and another 19 receptions for 188 yards and one touchdown through the air. Again, not elite numbers, but stable numbers that allow for production with touches. Montgomery should remain in lineups as a middling RB2 who gets all the goal-line work. Cohen remains on the low-end RB3 radar as someone who gets 7-14 touches per game since they released Mike Davis, with most of his production coming in the passing game. He hasn’t broken many big plays this year, but his touches are eerily similar to those he had in 2018. He has a stable floor that’s better than most in the low-end RB3 conversation.

WRs
Amari Cooper: There was a scare with Cooper last week when he took a direct hit to his knee where he was flipped and came down hard. He did return to the game and early word from Jason Garrett is that he’s expected to play. The Bears aren’t a tough task for a receiver like him, as Amukamara struggles with speed over the top (he’s actually been ruled out for the game with a hamstring injury), while Fuller is better in contested catch situations. Neither of them are particularly agile. It’s why we’ve watched fellow elite route-runner Stefon Diggs dominate them the last two times they’ve played and why Emmanuel Sanders was able to tag them for 11/98/1 earlier this year. Cooper should be in lineups as a low-end WR1 where the only risk is re-injury.

Michael Gallup: The Bills didn’t have Tre’Davious White completely shadow Cooper, which meant Gallup saw him in coverage some of the time, so his final stat line suffered. The Bears don’t use anyone to shadow, so Gallup will see a mixture of Prince Amukamara (since ruled out) and Kyle Fuller in coverage. They have allowed much of the production against the Bears this year, as Buster Skrine has done a fine job in the slot. In the end, the Bears pass-rush has been letting them down as of late, allowing receivers to get open. We watched both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones get loose for touchdowns last week while playing with their third-string quarterback. We’ve only seen one team have two receivers score more than 13.0 PPR points against them, and that was the Redskins way back in Week 3 when they fell behind and threw the ball 43 times against the Bears. It’s unlikely we see that happen with the Cowboys, so Gallup should be considered a middling WR3 while Cooper takes the spotlight.

Randall Cobb: Just when fantasy owners wanted to trust Cobb, he sees just three targets in a game Prescott threw the ball 49 times. It was a tough matchup for him specifically, but the matchup with the Bears is no different. Buster Skrine has been the best cornerback on the Bears roster this season and has held the combination of Cooper Kupp, Golden Tate, and Danny Amendola to just nine catches for 118 yards and one touchdown over the last three weeks… combined. The best performance the Bears have allowed to a slot-heavy receiver this year has been Keenan Allen‘s 7/53/0 on 10 targets, which amounted to the WR31 performance that week. Cobb is nothing more than a low-end WR4/high-end WR5.

Allen Robinson: Being covered by Darius Slay is a task, but one that Robinson was up for on Thanksgiving while hauling in 86 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys don’t have a shutdown cornerback that’ll follow Robinson around, but they are a brutal matchup for wide receivers and have been since the start of the 2018 season. Over that 28-game stretch, they’ve allowed just 18 wide receivers to finish as top-24 options against them, with just eight of them finishing as top-12 options. The good news is that every receiver who’s finished with eight-plus targets (there’s been eight of them) has scored double-digit PPR points, with five of them hitting 15-plus PPR points. Robinson has now seen seven-plus targets in 10-of-12 games, so the likeliness that he gets in that territory is high. You’re starting him as a middling WR2, but this isn’t a week to expect him to carry your fantasy team.

Anthony Miller: What everyone witnessed on Thanksgiving Day is the reason I liked Miller as a sleeper this year, though that obviously didn’t pan out. Why they haven’t gotten him involved more is beyond me. He’s now seen 33 targets over the last three games and has turned them into 21 receptions and 271 yards, though he’s yet to score this season. The Cowboys have allowed just nine wide receiver touchdowns all year, with Cole Beasley being the first slot-heavy receiver to score on them last week. They have allowed five different slot-heavy receivers to rack up six-plus receptions on the year and have allowed three of them (Julian Edelman, Jamison Crowder, Beasley) to total 90-plus yards, so it’s not a matchup that’s unbeatable. Jourdan Lewis has taken over for Anthony Brown in the slot, and it’s a matchup the Bears should try to exploit, as Lewis is the weakest link. He’s allowed 24-of-34 passing for 328 yards and a touchdown in his coverage to this point. Miller belongs in the WR4 conversation this week, though his target floor will come down with Taylor Gabriel returning to the lineup. *Update* Gabriel has been ruled out for the game, so feel free to consider Miller a high-end WR4 who has the best matchup on the Bears roster. 

TEs
Jason Witten: What a stud. He scored on Thanksgiving once again and did it against a Bills team that has been the best in the NFL against tight ends the last two years. He’s seen at least four targets in every game this year and has averaged 6.3 targets over the last seven games. He doesn’t offer a ceiling, but he does offer consistency. The Bears kind of fit that mold perfectly, as they have allowed just two tight ends to top 49 yards against them since the start of the 2018 season. However, there has been nine different tight ends who’ve totaled at least 30 yards against them this year. The 9.70 yards per reception they’ve allowed is among the lowest in the league, but the 5.8 receptions and 56.6 yards per game are both above average. He should be considered a middling TE2 who doesn’t offer week-winning upside, but he should be locked in for four-plus targets and 30-plus yards.

Ben Braunecker: He missed last week, leaving the Bears to start J.P. Holtz and Jesper Horsted at tight end, though Braunecker is expected back this week. Not that it matters, though, as the Bears have not targeted a single tight end more than four times this season. The biggest performance of the year was… Horsted’s one-catch, 18-yard, one-touchdown game on Thanksgiving. You’re not playing a Bears tight end. *Update* Braunecker has been ruled out for this game.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.