Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Total: 45.0
Line: NYJ by 5.5

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Over his last seven starts, Fitzpatrick has totaled 20-plus fantasy points in four of them. The three he didn’t wound-up with 11-13 points, so they weren’t complete busts, but he’s been the third-highest scoring quarterback since Week 7. Sure, most had their bye week in between there, but still. Now he gets a matchup with his former team, the team he threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns against back in Week 9. It may show that Andy Dalton had just one touchdown pass last week, but he hit both Tyler Eifert and C.J. Uzomah square in the hands for touchdowns, but they both dropped them. Most production against the Jets comes through the air, as their run defense has allowed a league-low 2.96 yards per carry. When you combine that with the Dolphins inability to run the ball, and Fitzpatrick will be the means to move the ball. It’s why we’ve seen quarterbacks average 37.3 pass attempts against them this year. I don’t want you to think it’s a can’t-miss spot, though, as the Jets have allowed just 5-of-12 quarterbacks to average more than 6.9 yards per attempt and have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just 5-of-12 games. However, the Jets appear to be hurting really bad in the secondary, as safety Jamal Adams is dealing with an ankle injury, cornerback Brian Poole is in the concussion protocol, and cornerback Arthur Maulet is dealing with a calf strain. It’s good to know that Fitzpatrick was able to get it done against them earlier this year while they were at near full strength, putting him on the streaming radar. Consider him a mid-to-high-end QB2 provided there’s not a whole lot going on with the weather.

Sam Darnold: Coming off a game where he may have cost his owners the matchup, Darnold has another great matchup on his plate. Can you trust him against a Dolphins team that’s allowed 10-of-12 quarterbacks to finish as top-16 options against them? It’s a good question, though the answer the last time they played would’ve been “no.” He finished that game completing 27-of-39 passes for 260 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. There should be an asterisk next to that, though, as he should’ve been 28-of-38 for 263 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Why? He threw a touchdown pass to Ryan Griffin that was overturned because the ball moved a bit when he hit the wall (it was a horrendous call). The next play, Darnold threw an interception. It’s a game of inches and that one play had a six-plus point swing in fantasy football. There was just one other game this year where a quarterback failed to throw multiple touchdowns. There’s plenty of risk with Darnold and the Jets team as a whole, but if you’re playing the percentages, he should be able to finish as a top-16 option and a decent streamer. He reportedly suffered a knee injury and bruised ribs in the loss to the Bengals, so you have to pass attention to his status throughout the week.

RBs
Patrick Laird and Myles Gaskin: It seems that Kalen Ballage is likely to miss this game with an injury, but it won’t change much with his projection (he was placed on injured reserve this week). Even when he left the game last week, Laird came in and totaled just five yards on 10 carries. As a team, the Dolphins running backs that are remaining on the roster have combined for 412 yards on 150 carries (2.75 yards per carry) with four rushing touchdowns. That’s… not ideal. The Jets have been the best in the league against the run (crazy, right?) while allowing a miniscule 2.96 yards per carry. The only starting running back who averaged more than 4.00 yards per carry was Jordan Howard back in Week 5 when he totaled 62 yards on 13 carries. Despite being a bad football team overall, they’ve allowed just 13 running backs to finish as top-36 options against them. If there’s a Dolphins running back who’s going to have any shot at producing, they’ll need to get it done through the air because while the Jets have been elite against the run, they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. We saw Laird run 18 routes while Gaskin ran 11 routes, so it appears Laird is the lead back in both departments. He’s not all that appealing, but he should get 8-12 touches here, putting him on the high-end RB4 radar. Gaskins is nothing more than a RB4/5-type option until we see him handle more work.

Le’Veon Bell: He got back to his heavy snap count in Week 13, which is the good news. The bad news is that he hasn’t finished better than RB10 since way back in Week 2. He’s lacking upside, but we knew that before the season began, right? The last time these two teams met, Bell finished with 66 yards on 17 carries while catching eight passes for 55 yards en route to a low-end RB1 performance in PPR formats. Usually, there will be a few performances where a running back will simply outshine his expectation, but Bell has yet to average more than 0.93 PPR points per opportunity this year. That’s a number that five teams have allowed more as an average. The Dolphins are not one of them, as they’ve allowed the 14th-most points per opportunity. They have faced a ton of volume, though, as running backs have averaged 27.0 carries and 5.4 targets per game against them. Will this be the first time this season Bell totals more than 70 yards on the ground? It really should be. He’s now totaled at least 33 receiving yards in each of the last five games, solidifying his fantasy floor. He should be in lineups as a low-end RB1 this week. *Update* Bell is looking extremely questionable for this game, as he’s missed practices on Thursday and Friday with an illness. Adam Gase wouldn’t commit to Bell playing on Friday. If you plan on playing Bell, you should grab Bilal Powell, who’d be his replacement. Powell would have the looks of a low-end RB2 who has fresh legs in a plus-matchup. 

WRs
DeVante Parker: Let the love of Parker continue, as we’re now entering Week 14 and he’s finished just one game with less then 56 yards and/or a touchdown. Do you know who that one game was against? The Patriots. He’s on fire right now and Fitzpatrick continues to feed him targets, as he’s received double-digits in four straight games. Now going into a matchup with the Jets who already put Trumaine Johnson on injured reserve, but now have Brian Poole in the concussion protocol and Arthur Maulet is dealing with a soft tissue injury that he suffered in Week 13. It seems the Jets will have Bless Austin and Maurice Canady out there as the starting cornerbacks this week. Austin is a sixth-round rookie while Canady is a former sixth-rounder who’s played a total of just 554 snaps over the course of three years. There have been 13 wide receivers who’ve finished with top-24 numbers against the Jets, so there’s little reason to doubt Parker now. The last time they played, he finished with just six targets but finished with four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. He should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 with a stable floor.

Allen Hurns: There’s been four starts for Hurns opposite Parker in the starting lineup, and he’s totaled at least four targets in each game, while posting at least 32 yards in each of them. Those aren’t huge expectations, but knowing how well the Jets stop the run, we should see a bit more passing this week. The Jets have a lot of injuries in their secondary right now, which could open the door for production to more than just Parker. The Jets have seen an average of 21.7 wide receiver targets per game, which is more than enough. There’s not one particular cornerback Hurns will see, as he’s moved all over the formation, but knowing whoever he sees will be a backup, he’s not the worst hail-mary WR5.

Jamison Crowder: Despite seeing nine targets in Week 13, Crowder finished with just eight yards. Is that the worst ever among receivers who’ve seen nine or more targets? It was the 22nd lowest total since they started tracking targets. His average depth of target was just 1.9 yards, something like a running back. He should be able to get back on track against the Dolphins, who’ve really struggled to defend the slot. No matter who they put out there, it hasn’t mattered very much, as they’ve combined to allow 60-of-97 passing for 785 yards and nine touchdowns. The last time these two teams met, Crowder hauled in 8-of-9 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR10 on the week. Look for Darnold to get back to his safety blanket this week in a plus-matchup. He should be back on your radar as a low-end WR3 this week.

Robby Anderson: Doesn’t it feel like Anderson does this every year? Well, it’s because he does. After being incredibly mediocre all year, he finished with 4/76/1, 7/96/1, and 9/140/1 in Weeks 14-16 last year, and had a big stretch towards the end of the 2017 season as well. He’s now totaled 11 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks, which could be him ramping up production once again. If he wants to continue, the Dolphins aren’t a bad team to be playing. They have allowed the sixth-most points per game to receivers despite seeing the 13th-fewest targets. A big part of that is due to the league-leading 21 touchdowns they’ve allowed to the position. Anderson totaled just two catches for 33 yards when they played just over a month ago, which always makes you cringe, but riding the hot wave would make some sense. You can’t trust him over proven options with a high floor, but as a high-end WR4, you sure can.

Demaryius Thomas: He seems to have settled into the 3-5 target territory, which isn’t really enough to play him with confidence, but also not low enough to forget about him. He’s been on the injury report for the last few weeks and has now finished with 44 yards or less in four of his last five games, which includes a matchup with the Dolphins where he caught just two balls for 19 yards. With the emergence of Anderson the last few weeks, you’re better off leaving Thomas on the waiver wire/bench as his lack of ceiling doesn’t justify his low floor.

TEs
Mike Gesicki: After failing to score a touchdown in each of his first 26 career games, Gesicki has scored in each of the last two games. He’s seen at least six targets in each of the last five games, which is massive at the unpredictable position, and even catches a break this week as safety Jamal Adams is looking extremely unlikely to play. He’s easily the best player in their secondary and the one responsible for taking care of the tight end most of the time. If he’s out, it’d be a massive upgrade. Gesicki did total 6/95/0 against them back in Week 9 with Adams, so it clearly wasn’t a scheme Fitzpatrick struggled with. There have been seven tight ends who’ve totaled at least 41 yards against the Jets, though they’ve allowed just two touchdowns, which has kept the fantasy totals down. Gesicki is getting enough targets to be considered a low-end TE1 and would get a nice bump if Adams sits.

Ryan Griffin: He’s been a big part of this offense over the last six weeks, totaling 28 targets, 24 receptions, 266 yards, and four touchdowns. His targets have been a bit volatile, which isn’t the best thing for a streamer, though this is a matchup he’s crushed before. In fact, his season-high was eight targets, and it came against the Dolphins. While the stat sheet says 6/50/0, it should read 7/53/1, as he had a touchdown that was overturned that really shouldn’t have been. The Dolphins have moved Eric Rowe from cornerback to safety and it’s worked out well, as he’s allowed just 13-of-28 passing for 118 yards at safety. Knowing that Darnold has been hit-or-miss, the Jets have been hit-or-miss, and Griffin’s targets have been hit-or-miss, you have a high-variance streamer. He should be in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation but understand you’re playing with fire.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 43.0
Line: MIN by 13.0

QBs
David Blough: After the Lions place Jeff Driskel on injured reserve, it seems we’ll get another start out of Blough this week. You’re not going to be starting him in the first week of the fantasy playoffs while on the road in Minnesota. Seriously, I promise there are better options.

Kirk Cousins: Fortunately, this game isn’t on Monday night. He’s now 0-9 on Monday night games over the course of his career, though it’s hard to blame him for what happened against the Seahawks. They’ll look to get back on track versus the Lions at home this week. We all know the Lions defense has been abused in any which way opponents want to attack them, and Cousins was one of them back in Week 7 when he tallied 337 yards and four touchdowns on just 34 attempts against them. While the 34 pass attempts may not seem like much, the only reason he threw that much was because Matthew Stafford threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns while keeping the game competitive. Will the same happen with Blough under center… in Minnesota? Doubtful. Still, the only two quarterbacks who failed to post at least 18 fantasy points against the Lions this year were Philip Rivers (back in Week 2) and Dwayne Haskins. We’ve even seen Mitch Trubisky throw for three touchdowns against them on multiple occasions. The only fear with Cousins in this game is him throwing the ball 20 times while the Vikings run the ball 60-plus percent of the time, though the injury to Cook should help ease some of those fears. He should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 with a relatively safe floor, though he’ll need the Lions to score points in order to be much more than that.

RBs
Bo Scarbrough and Ty Johnson: It’s all but settled that Scarbrough is the early-down back with Johnson and J.D. McKissic mixed-in on passing downs. Projecting gamescript is massive with this backfield, as Scarbrough has totaled 53 rushing attempts, but just one target. This game has the Vikings as massive 14-point favorites, which doesn’t bode well for Scarbrough’s role, as the game can get out of hand rather quickly. While the Vikings secondary has been suspect all year, their run defense is better than they looked on Monday night. Prior to allowing Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to go bonkers against them, the Seahawks had allowed just four running backs finish better than RB20 against them all season. Oddly enough, Johnson’s 9.7-PPR point performance in Week 7 qualifies, as it was a low-scoring week in fantasy football. Just half of the Vikings opponents have had a running back who’s totaled at least 15 carries, and it’s extremely tough to say Scarbrough will. The fact that the Vikings have allowed just seven running backs to reach double-digit points (only Vikings, 49ers, Bucs can say that) should be enough to scare you off Scarbrough as anything more than a low-ceiling, low-floor, low-end RB3/high-end RB4. Johnson is sharing the passing-down work with J.D. McKissic, canceling the chance of any consistency. Johnson ran 12 pass routes on Thanksgiving while McKissic ran 10 of them. Johnson would be my choice of the two, though neither are trustworthy.

Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: We’re not likely going to know Cook’s status and how much he’ll play until Sunday, and even then, there’s likely going to be smoke and mirrors. Cook did say he’ll play in that game, but if you remember last year like I do, you remember him saying a similar sentiment before their game with the Rams where he went out and re-injured himself, then missed four weeks. Stay tuned for updates on Saturday morning at the bottom of these notes. After starting the year allowing everyone to run through their defense, the Lions have turned things around over the last month. Over their last four games they’ve allowed 274 yards on 77 carries (3.56 yards per carry) with just one rushing touchdown. They did play the Bears twice and the Redskins during that stretch, two teams who’ve had trouble running the ball all season, though it’s still a step in the right direction. They’ve seen an average of 28.3 touches per game to running backs, which is more than enough for the timeshare between these two, though they did total a massive 33 touches in the Week 7 meeting. Cook rushed for 142 yards and two touchdowns in that game, highlighting just how well their zone scheme works against Matt Patricia’s defense. If he gets back to practice and has no limitations, Cook should be locked into lineups as an RB1 but if the Vikings pull out front early, he’s likely finding a warm spot on the bench. Mattison is more of a play if you’re betting on the Vikings blowing the Lions out in order for the Vikings to rest Cook in the second half. That’s always risky to count on, though if there were one game you could rely on it more than others, it’s this one. Mattison has received seven-plus carries in 7-of-12 games without Cook injured, which is why he can be considered a low-end RB3/high-end RB4 who could surprise. If Cook were to sit, Mattison would be locked-in as a must-play RB1. *Update* Cook got in a full practice on Friday and was left off the final injury report, suggesting he’ll play in Week 14. While I still believe it’ll be more of a timeshare than usual, the fact that he was removed does give his owners a bit more confidence. 

WRs
Kenny Golladay: So, is Driskel the only one that Golladay doesn’t produce with? He racked-up a season-high 158 yards and one touchdown against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day. While I don’t believe Driskel hurt Golladay that much, it’s noteworthy that most of Golladay’s production against the Bears came on one play where he just ran right past Prince Amukamara for a 75-yard touchdown. This is a rematch with the Vikings, the team that held him to just one catch for 21 yards back in Week 7. That was the game he took a backseat to the Marvin Jones show. The Vikings haven’t been a matchup to worry about as a receiver in 2019. Xavier Rhodes was the one they relied on for shutdown coverage in the past, but he’s been among the worst cornerbacks in football this year, allowing 53-of-61 passing for 645 yards and four touchdowns in his coverage. He’s the cornerback Golladay will see about 60 percent of the time. If Blough can get the ball to him, he’ll probably be open. He’s a high-end WR3 with Blough under center.

Marvin Jones: Despite playing with three different quarterbacks this year, Jones has produced with all of them. Over the last four weeks with backups, he’s totaled 17 receptions for 206 yards and three touchdowns. The touchdowns have carried him a bit, as he’s failed to top 46 yards in each of his last three games, but he has totaled at least five targets in each of his last 11 games. The Vikings are the team he torched back in Week 7 when he caught 10-of-13 targets for 93 yards and four touchdowns. While that’s not going to happen, the Vikings have been a matchup to target with receivers this year. Here’s a crazy stat: The average number of PPR points it took (on average) to finish as a WR3 or better in 2018 was 11.7 PPR points. There have been 20 wide receivers who’ve hit that mark against the Vikings. There’s no team in the league who’s allowed more than them. The Cardinals and Bucs are tied behind them with 18. Jones will see Mike Hughes most of the time, a second-year cornerback who’s played better than Xavier Rhodes, though he’s allowed a 101.1 QB Rating in his coverage, so it’s not as if you must avoid him. This all comes back to the concern with Blough as the starter, which leaves us playing Jones as a risky low-end WR3/high-end WR4.

Danny Amendola: If there’s anyone who’s been absolutely crushed by the backup quarterback play, it’s Amendola. He’s failed to reach 50 yards in each of the last five games, while catching just 3-4 passes in each game. The matchup with the Vikings treated him well last time they met, as he racked-up eight catches for 105 yards. It surely helps that Golladay caught just one ball that game. It also helps boost his appeal now that Hockenson is out for the year, but Mackensie Alexander has been the Vikings best cornerback in coverage, allowing just a 64.3 percent catch-rate, 11.3 yards per reception, and two touchdowns in his coverage this year. This could be a garbage-time special where Blough continually checks-down to move the sticks but relying on that often goes wrong. He’s just a low-upside WR5/6.

Stefon Diggs: It was an ugly game for Diggs on Monday night football, as he dropped multiple passes that should’ve been caught and suffered what seemed to be a sprained ankle, though he returned to the game. It’s been feast-or-famine with him all season, as he’s had five games with 108-plus yards but has finished with 52 yards or less in the other seven games. The last time these two teams played, Darius Slay had to leave in the game early (so did Thielen), and it led to Diggs racking up seven catches for 143 yards on just eight targets. Slay will be on the field for this game, but with Thielen back, you must wonder how the Lions will handle the duo. As a team, the Lions have now allowed a massive 38.5 PPR points per game to wide receivers, which ranks bottom-five in the league. They’ve now allowed 16 different wide receivers to finish as top-24 options, including seven of them in the top-10. If I had to guess, Thielen would be back for this game, but it does help the passing game’s stability to know that even if Dalvin Cook plays, he’s not at 100 percent. You have to live with the ups and downs of Diggs, who should be considered a mid-to-low-end WR2 for this contest who has a lower floor than most in that area of the rankings.

Adam Thielen: After suffering what was deemed a “slight” setback last week, Thielen wisely sat the game out. After re-injuring his hamstring back in Week 9, only he can know when it’s 100 percent. If he’s back on the field, you should probably trust him at this point. The Lions are likely to gameplan for Darius Slay on Diggs because he’s the one who’s guaranteed to play. That’s a good thing for Thielen, as he’d get the struggling Rashaan Melvin in coverage, or if he can’t go (rib injury that caused him to miss Week 13), rookie cornerback Amani Oruwariye. Over Melvin’s last 10 games, he’s allowed 36-of-52 passing for 548 yards and three touchdowns in his coverage, which is good enough for a 122.9 QB Rating. Meanwhile, Oruwariye has played 112 career snaps and has allowed 8-of-10 passes to be completed in his coverage. Thielen comes with some risk off a multi-week injury but should be played as a low-end WR2 with upside if he’s out there. *Update* Thielen hasn’t practiced all week and is looking like he will miss another game. It’d be a shock if he did play, actually. 

TEs
Jesse James: Rookie T.J. Hockenson saw a career-high 11 targets in Week 13 but was then placed on season-ending injured reserve with a shoulder injury that’d been bothering him. There were just three games all year he’d topped 32 yards, making him hard to trust as a streamer. The Vikings held him to just three catches and 32 yards in their first meeting, and that was with Matthew Stafford under center. Now putting James into that spot, it’s going to be tough to recommend him as a streaming option. When fantasy owners look at fantasy points against, it’s really misleading with the Vikings, who have allowed the 13th-most points to tight ends. They are a very good defense against the position. In fact, there’s no team in the NFL who’s allowed less on a per-target basis. The 1.29 PPR points per target they allow is much better than any other team, as the 49ers’ 1.40 points per target is the closest. Volume has supported tight ends against the Vikings, something we cannot guarantee for James. Even if we could, when you combine the Vikings crazy efficiency, and James’ miniscule 4.4 yards per target this year, it’s not a great match for a streamer. Heck, it’s possible Logan Thomas outproduces him.

Kyle Rudolph: As mentioned last week, if Thielen is out of the lineup, Rudolph benefits greatly. It seems likely that Thielen returns this week, but if he doesn’t, light up your Rudolph shares. He’s now seen at least five targets in each of his last four games and five of his last six. The last time these two teams met, Thielen had to leave early and it was the first time all year Rudolph was fantasy relevant, hauling in 5-of-6 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. The Lions are kind of the opposite of the Vikings, as they rank as a middle-of-the-pack team against tight ends, but when targeted, they do damage, as indicated by the 8.99 yards per target (4th-highest) and 2.05 PPR points per target (2nd-highest). They’ve now allowed a touchdown and/or 52-plus yards to nine different tight ends this year. That should give Rudolph a decent floor in this game, though Thielen would swing things quite a bit. If Thielen plays, Rudolph is a middling TE2 who’d be touchdown dependent. If Thielen sits (it seems likely), Rudolph would be a low-end TE1.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 43.0
Line: LAC by 3.0

QBs
Philip Rivers: The Chargers put the whispers out that they would consider benching Rivers if his poor play continued. He responded by completing 20-of-29 passes for 265 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception against the tough Broncos defense, though it wasn’t enough to win. He’s apparently on a short leash, though the Chargers shouldn’t be relying on him very much this week. The Jaguars have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just 5-of-12 games this year and have allowed just three quarterbacks to hit 8.0 or more yards per attempt. All-in-all, there’ve been just four top-12 quarterback performances against them this season. The 7.66 yards per attempt and 4.18 percent touchdown-rate indicate it requires volume to get it done against them, something Rivers hasn’t had much of lately. He’s thrown 31 or less attempts in four of the last five games. Anytime you hear the word “benched” being thrown around with a quarterback, you probably shouldn’t be playing him in the fantasy playoffs. Knowing he’s playing the team that’s allowed the 11th-fewest points through the air to quarterbacks makes him just a low-end QB2 this week.

Gardner Minshew: He’s back! After watching Nick Foles struggle since returning, the Jaguars felt it was time to go back to the rookie who never should’ve lost the job to begin with. Unfortunately, the matchup he’s returning to is a brutal one against the Chargers. They’re a defense that’s finally getting healthy, as stud safety Derwin James returned last week. There’s been just one quarterback all season who’s been able to throw more than two touchdowns against them, and that was Deshaun Watson way back in Week 3. There have actually been just two quarterbacks all season who’ve thrown for more than 253 yards against the Chargers this year. A big issue is game pace, as the Chargers games net just 119.6 plays per game, which is the lowest in the NFL, as is the 57.3 plays per game their opponents average. That’s led to exactly zero quarterbacks with more than 35 pass attempts. Combining low volume with just 7.36 yards per attempt that the Chargers have allowed, and you have yourself a quarterback with a fairly low floor. Minshew has been a solid streamer for much of his starts this year (top-16 in 7-of-9 starts), but this is not a great spot for him.

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: This backfield split over the last four weeks has gone like this: Gordon 89 opportunities (76 carries, 13 targets), Ekeler 55 opportunities (32 carries, 23 targets). Knowing that targets are worth an average of 2.3 times as much as carries in PPR formats, their opportunity is closer than it seems, and more like a 55/45 split. It’s Gordon’s area of dominance this week, though. The Jaguars have been straight-up dominated against the run over the last four games, allowing 638 yards and 106 carries (6.02 yards per carry) and seven rushing touchdowns. They’ve allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in each of the last three games, as the loss of Marcell Dareus has proven to be too much. Knowing Gordon’s hit 20-plus carries in three of the last four games and that he’s gotten 15 of the 20 goal-line carries in that time, he should be locked into lineups as an RB1 this week. Knowing that Ekeler’s opportunity is worth more than most think, his role shouldn’t be needed as much in this contest. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-fewest points through the air to running backs, which is where Ekeler has been doing his damage as of late. He still deserves middling RB3 consideration, but his ceiling is likely a bit lower in this game.

Leonard Fournette: We all know Christian McCaffrey is like running back/wide receiver combo, right? Did you know Fournette has 65 receptions, which is just 10 off what McCaffrey has? After the Jaguars gave him just 15 touches in Week 11, they vowed to get the ball into his hands moving forward. They didn’t lie, as he’s racked up 56 touches over the last two weeks. The Chargers have been a mediocre run defense this year, and they’ve faced an average of 28.5 running back touches despite their opponents averaging a league-low 57.3 plays per game. That’s because the Chargers opponents have run the ball on 46.1 percent of plays against them, which is the fifth-highest percentage in the league. Because of that, we’ve watched nine different running backs finish as the RB14 or better against them, including the RB1 performance to James Conner back in Week 6. You’re playing Fournette as a rock-solid RB1 with the volume he’s seen, and this matchup does nothing to move you off him.

WRs
Keenan Allen: After going through a seven-game touchdown draught, Allen has scored in each of his last two games. He still hasn’t topped 71 yards since way back in Week 3 but the fact that he’s racked up 22 receptions over the last three games is a step in the right direction. The Jaguars have proven to be a tough matchup for wide receivers despite losing Jalen Ramsey. They’ve allowed the 13th-fewest points per game to the position as a whole and Allen is slated to see the cornerback who has arguably played better than anyone else on the team, D.J. Hayden (if he plays). On 31 targets in the slot, he’s allowed just 20 receptions for 179 yards and no touchdowns. Allen runs nearly 55 percent of his routes from the slot, which is why that’s so significant. We’ve watched the Jaguars slow down some of the better slot-heavy receivers in the game, as Chris Godwin posted 4/50/0, Tyler Boyd 5/55/0, and Jamison Crowder 3/24/0 have struggled to get much going against them. There have been nine top-24 performances against the Jaguars, so they’re not unbeatable or anything, but it is a tougher matchup than most realize. Allen should be considered a middling WR2 for this matchup in what should be a run-heavy game for the Chargers offense. He would receive a big upgrade if Hayden is forced to miss the game with a neck injury that had him leave last week’s game, so stay tuned.

Mike Williams: He now leads the NFL in yards per reception (min. 10 receptions) at 20.5 yards per clip, and has hauled in 778 yards, but has still yet to score a touchdown. Only him and Robert Woods have more than 489 receiving yards without a receiving touchdown. After a brief dip in targets in Weeks 9-10, he’s jumped back up to six and seven targets over the last two weeks. The Jaguars present a tough matchup this week, as they’ve allowed the 10th fewest points per target to receivers. Williams is going to see a lot of A.J. Bouye in this game, the forgotten cornerback who’s still pretty dang good in Jacksonville. He’s allowed just three touchdowns on 65 targets in coverage this year, so expecting the Williams touchdown in this game may not be the best idea. As a team, they’ve allowed just eight touchdowns to receivers, which is tied as the fifth-fewest in the NFL. They’re coming off a game in which they held Mike Evans to just 4/53/0 on 11 targets, and the two are similar-style players that rely on their big bodies to win at the point of catch. Williams remains on the low-end WR3 radar but it’s not a great matchup for him.

D.J. Chark: It’s so hard to tell what’s good or what’s bad for Chark nowadays, as Foles targeted him 15 times in their first game, leading us to believe he’d raise Chark’s value. Over the last two weeks, in plus matchups, he finished with just seven catches for 85 yards in the two games combined. He has Minshew back under center, which is likely a good thing, but the matchup against the Chargers is a tough one. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver all season, and that was Kenny Golladay all the way back in Week 2. In fact, they’ve allowed just six wide receivers to finish better than the WR29 all season. That’s a bit ridiculous. There have been just six receivers who’ve hit the 13-PPR-point threshold, which ranks as the second-best mark in the league, behind only the Patriots who’ve allowed five. You’re likely going to see Casey Hayward cover Chark much of the day, and that’s not a good thing. He’s allowed just 20-of-39 passing for 258 yards in his coverage this year, and though he allowed two touchdowns to Courtland Sutton last week, he was right there where he was supposed to be in coverage, but Sutton just played out of his mind. You should dial back expectations for Chark in this tough matchup, as he should be considered a high-end WR3 rather than the borderline WR1 we thought he was.

Chris Conley: His seven-plus target streak ended at five games in Week 13, though he still saw five targets and finished with four catches for 57 yards. He’s been a solid bye week filler over the last month-and-a-half, but you shouldn’t be trusting him in the first week of the fantasy playoffs, as the Chargers are about as tough as it gets. There have been just nine receivers all year who’ve been able to finish as top-36 options against them, which obviously amounts to less than one per game. The only receivers who’ve been able to hit double-digit PPR points without seeing a minimum of seven targets were Courtland Sutton and DeVante Parker, two receivers who’ve been every-week starters. They both needed to score touchdowns to get there. Conley has scored just twice all season. It does help that Chark will likely get Casey Hayward in near shadow coverage, but it’s no time to get cute against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to wide receivers. He’s just a high-end WR5.

Dede Westbrook: He’s racked up 23 targets over the last three weeks, though much of that came from Foles under center. His role was growing with Minshew before he got benched, so the transition shouldn’t be bad. The downside is that he has a date with Desmond King, the slot cornerback for the Chargers, who has done a good job containing slot-heavy receivers like Westbrook. The biggest performance the Chargers have allowed to a slot-heavy receiver was Kenny Stills‘ 4/89/0 game back in Week 3 when he finished as the WR36. Looking it over, their schedule hasn’t been very tough, so it’s possible Westbrook can set the new precedent for slot-heavy receivers against them. When healthy, Westbrook has seen six-plus targets in eight straight games, including six games with eight-plus targets. Those are the types of receivers you have to play, even in not-so-great matchups, because their floor is worth it. He should remain in the WR3 conversation this week.

TEs
Hunter Henry: It was a tough day for Henry owners last week, as he totaled just two catches for 10 yards. It was the first time all season he’d finished with less than 8.7 PPR points, so shake it off and be happy it didn’t come during the fantasy playoffs. The matchup with the Jaguars this week is a solid one, as they’ve allowed every tight end who’s seen more than four targets to finish with 11.1 or more PPR points. As a team, they’ve only seen 63 targets on the year (4th-fewest), but it’s one of those situations where you wonder why teams don’t target them more because they’ve allowed a 70 percent catch-rate, 8.03 yards per target, and 1.98 PPR points per target, all marks well above the league average. The Jaguars were also without one of their starting safeties Ronnie Harrison last week, which surely doesn’t hurt. You’re starting Henry as a high-end TE1 and expecting results in this matchup.

Nick O’Leary: The idea behind O’Leary was good last week and he did see four targets, but the Jaguars quarterbacks struggled, and it led to a big disappointment. Despite being with the team for just the last two weeks, O’Leary has seen eight targets in the two games, as it’s necessary with all the injuries to their tight end unit. Fortunately, you don’t have to consider him this week, as the Chargers are one of the better teams in the league against tight ends and they just got Derwin James back last week. Carry on.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Total: 49.0
Line: NE by 3.0

QBs
Patrick Mahomes: Has the magic worn off? Mahomes has now finished with 273 yards or less in four of his last five games (though one was abbreviated due to injury), something that didn’t happen in the first five games of the season. He’s also thrown just 0-1 touchdowns in five of his last seven games. Now they head into a matchup with the Patriots in what could be a preview of the AFC Championship match. The Patriots are coming off a game in which they allowed Deshaun Watson and the Texans combine for 234 yards and four touchdowns through the air in Week 13. That was an interesting game because there were many factors involved, including half of the Patriots being sick and needing to fly on a different plane after not practicing all week. However, for those who’ve said to wait until the Patriots got some real competition, we’ve watched Lamar Jackson and Watson both finish as top-three quarterbacks against them. They still rank No. 1 in completion percentage (55.1) and touchdown percentage (1.78), while ranking No. 2 in yards per attempt (5.65). Mahomes has played the Patriots twice over the last 13 months. In those games, he’s thrown for 352 yards and four touchdowns, and then 295 yards and three touchdowns. You cannot let the matchup scare you off Mahomes, as the Patriots man coverage scheme just doesn’t match-up well with the Chiefs speed on offense. Start him as a QB1.

Tom Brady: I know that not everyone gets to watch every game. Most have to wait for a primetime matchup to see every team play. That’s why I was getting texts from friends on Sunday night asking if Brady has looked this bad as of late. Yes, he’s been the same quarterback he was on Sunday night for the past two months. Dating back to Week 6, Brady has completed just 59.9 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. That’s over a span of seven games. By comparison, Mitch Trubisky has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions over his last seven games. Both have not been particularly good. But will Brady turn it on for this matchup against the Chiefs? He played against them twice last year, throwing for 340-plus yards in each game but also throwing just one touchdown in each game. The matchup against Kansas City hasn’t been as great as some make it out to be every week, as they’ve held 7-of-12 quarterbacks to less than 6.9 yards per attempt, while allowing 18 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions over 12 games. That’s the definition of an average matchup, though quarterback rushing totals have propped-up the overall numbers. The Chiefs have pressured the opposing quarterback at least 40 percent of the time in four of their last six games, which is what kills Brady, as he’s the third-worst passer in the league when under pressure, behind only Jameis Winston and Mason Rudolph. Brady looks like nothing more than a middling QB2 in this matchup.

RBs
LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson: For now, let’s just assume that both Darrel Williams and Damien Williams will be out for this game. I’ll be back to update the notes here on Saturday morning should things change. Even with both Williams’ out of the lineup, McCoy totaled just five carries and three targets in the Week 13 win over the Raiders. Was it due to gamescript? The game was a blowout, but it’s worth noting that Thompson totaled 11 carries and looked better on them. The area to attack the Patriots has been on the ground this year, but it’s far from a weakness, as running backs are averaging a miniscule 0.66 PPR points per opportunity against them. The 4.17 yards per carry may seem nice, but if you’re not scoring any touchdowns, it doesn’t matter. They’ve allowed two touchdowns to running backs all season. The last time the Chiefs and Patriots met was in the AFC Championship game where Damien Williams totaled just 30 yards on 10 carries, but he did catch five passes for 66 yards and scored three total touchdowns. It is worth noting that no Chiefs running back outside of Damien Williams has totaled more than 14 opportunities in a game, so it’s tough to rely on either of these two. Thompson has fresh legs and has one-play potential, so he’s the upside play of the two, though he’s still just a risky RB3/4 option. McCoy shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a high-end RB4, though he has taken most of the receiving work as of late, which should give him a safer floor than Thompson. *Update* Darrel Williams was placed on injured reserve, while Damien Williams has been ruled out. The team actually signed Spencer Ware this week, a running back who’s had success in this offense. It’s a situation to steer clear of this week, if at all possible. 

Sony Michel and James White: It’s shocking to see the results of Michel in PPR formats, as he’s finished outside the top-36 running backs in 7-of-12 games. When you play for a high-scoring team, that’s not supposed to happen. Meanwhile, White has finished outside the top-24 options just twice all year. Against the Chiefs, opportunity typically means fantasy points. They’ve allowed 0.96 PPR points per opportunity to running backs, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. They’ve allowed an average of 184.7 total yards per game to running backs, which is easily the most in the NFL (closest is the Dolphins at 166.7). Their opponents have averaged a rather-high 65.9 plays per game and that’s allowed the touches to pile up, as running backs have received 29.8 touches per game. Going back to their playoff game last year, Michel tore them apart, rushing for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Even Rex Burkhead got in on the action and rushed for 41 yards and two touchdowns. Belichick will attack the run defense that’s allowed 5.08 yards per carry on the season. Michel has been a disappointment, but he should be in lineups as a high-end RB3 with some major upside in this matchup. The Chiefs don’t discriminate against pass-catching running backs, either, as the 177.3 PPR points they’ve allowed through the air ranks as the third-most in the league. Given Brady’s struggles, White should be heavily involved, and should be in lineups as a mid-to-low-end RB2.

WRs
Tyreek Hill: After playing a full complement of snaps last week, we don’t have to worry about Hill’s hamstring injury. The only concern you have is this week’s opponent, as the Patriots have been the league’s toughest secondary in 2019. Andy Reid is very familiar with Belichick and the Patriots, as is Hill. He’s played against them three times over the last two years: 7/133/1 in Week 1 of 2017, 7/142/3 in Week 6 of last year, and then just 1/42/0 in the conference championship game last year. So, he’s completely torn them apart in two of the three matchups, but did Belichick figure things out? It was more of the Chiefs taking what the Patriots gave them, as Mahomes still threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in that game. It’ll be interesting to see the chess match between these two teams, but I’m expecting Reid to move Hill into the slot more than ever. Play him as a low-end WR1 who does have some volatility in his projection, but he also has the week’s WR1 in his range of possibilities.

Sammy Watkins: Outside of his Week 1 performance, Watkins has totaled 60 targets that have amounted to just 33 receptions for 340 yards and no touchdowns. How does one get 60 targets from Mahomes and not score a touchdown? He’s likely going to see Stephon Gilmore in coverage this week, which has obviously been a nightmare matchup for wide receivers. He’s seen 70 targets in coverage and allowed something similar to what Watkins has since Week 1, as the 34 receptions for 407 yards and no touchdowns receivers have totaled in his coverage is actually better than Watkins’ production. I’ve been one saying to stick with him, as it’s difficult for him to struggle this long with Mahomes, but he’s actually trended in the wrong direction and has been fading in the offense while seeing just three targets in each of the last two games. He’s nothing more than a mediocre WR4 who you’re hoping busts out of a slump.

Julian Edelman: He’s seen 10-plus targets in seven straight games and that’s unlikely to end this week. He’s the one Brady looks to when he’s in trouble, and the one who’s had plenty of success even through Brady’s struggles. Not many will believe this, and I even did a double-take when I saw it, but the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest points to the wide receiver position. Are they that good? Not necessarily. They’ve faced just 189 wide receiver targets (15.8 per game) on the season, which is the second-fewest behind only the Chargers. On a per-target basis, they’re pretty average. In the slot, they’re below average, which is where Edelman runs 67 percent of his routes. Their cornerbacks/safeties have combined to allow 75-of-106 passing for 726 yards and five touchdowns in the slot. They got Kendall Fuller back from injury last week, but he’s been the weakest link in the secondary. It’s obviously not one of the best matchups in the league, but it’s not as bad as some may think. Edelman should be in lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Mohamed Sanu: After missing the Week 12 game, Sanu returned and played just 19-of-86 snaps in the loss to the Texans, so he’s clearly not at 100 percent. He did see five targets when on the field, though they amounted to just three catches for 14 yards with a drop included. He’s playing in the slot just 39 percent of the time with the Patriots, which doesn’t bode well for his success in this matchup, as the Chiefs have been much better on the perimeter than they’ve been over the middle of the field. There have been just eight wide receivers who’ve topped 11.0 PPR points against the Chiefs this year, which is not something anyone would expect to be the case. You can’t trust Sanu while he tries to play through his injury.

Phillip Dorsett: Ever since the team acquired Sanu, Dorsett has been assigned to a perimeter role in the offense, which is not good for his Week 14 projection. The perimeter duo of Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland have combined to allow 53-of-104 passing for 809 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage. They’ve surprisingly been one of the better duos in football from a results standpoint, and they’re a large part of the reason the Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest points to the wide receiver position. Dorsett hasn’t topped 53 yards since way back in Week 1, so he’s essentially touchdown-or-bust. Knowing the duo has allowed a touchdown every 34.7 targets, that’s not a smart bet. He’s nothing more than a WR5.

TEs
Travis Kelce: You know how we always hear that Belichick takes away the best part of your offense? Well, he’s apparently a big fan of Kelce, because the Patriots have done a great job containing him throughout his career.

So, Kelce hasn’t topped 11.3 PPR points since the first time they played, which was back in 2014. They’ve clearly made stopping him a priority, and after having Rob Gronkowski for all those years, they’re familiar with an offense flowing through a tight end and what it takes to slow him down. Tight ends are the one position the Patriots don’t rank No. 1 against (they rank No. 7) and have been pretty average against them on a per-target basis, allowing 7.30 yards per target and four touchdowns on 66 targets. You’re starting Kelce in redraft leagues no matter what, but as for DFS, he shouldn’t be considered a cash game lock this week.

Matt LaCosse and Ben Watson: This is a full-blown timeshare between these two, and there wasn’t much production to begin with. Watson did run 29 routes compared to just 15 for LaCosse, but LaCosse was on the field for more snaps and saw more targets. The Chiefs are one of the teams that’ve been lumped in with the whole “they’re bad against tight ends” conversation, though that’s not really the case. They’ve allowed just 6.65 yards per target and 1.56 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league, better than the Patriots. The reason they’ve allowed the third-most points to the position is due to volume, as they’ve faced a league-high 119 targets (9.9 per game). You’re not playing either of these tight ends with any confidence, though Watson would be the choice if you wanted to.