Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Total: 42.5
Line: HOU by 9.5

QBs
Drew Lock: His first start got them a win and he did throw two touchdown passes, but his paltry 4.8 yards per attempt is far from good. It was a matchup with the Chargers, so we don’t want to be too harsh on the rookie. The Texans are a much easier matchup, though it’s mostly due to volume. Quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against them, which has led to them allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. The 7.42 yards per attempt is slightly above average, but not nearly as bad as some might expect given the injuries they’ve dealt with throughout the year. They’ve also lacked a pass-rush, as they rank 26th in the NFL while pressure the opposing quarterback just 31.9 percent of the time. The four quarterbacks who’ve failed to throw multiple touchdowns against them include Gardner Minshew (twice), Jacoby Brissett, and Kyle Allen. What do they have in common? None were expected to be the starters in 2019. Lock should offer something for those in 2QB leagues but relying on him for anything more than low-end QB2 production would be a mistake.

Deshaun Watson: There were a lot of factors for that Patriots game, but kudos to him for taking advantage of them. He is willing to give his receivers chances to make plays regularly and they didn’t disappoint against an ill Patriots secondary. It’ll be another difficult matchup this week against the Broncos, who’ve allowed just four quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns against them, though three of them have come over the last three weeks. First it was Kirk Cousins who had the comeback in Week 11, throwing three touchdowns. Then it was Josh Allen who threw just 25 passes, though two of them were for touchdowns. Finally, it was Philip Rivers who was able to get it together and throw for 265 yards and two touchdowns last week. They were without Von Miller last week, who is clearly their best player on the defensive line. If they’re missing him again this week, that would be a big plus for Watson. The Broncos have also allowed just 13.2 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks, which isn’t ideal, though Watson hasn’t used his legs as of late, rushing for 12 yards or less in each of the last three games. The bottom line is that no quarterback has finished better than QB8 against the Broncos this year, as the games have been slow-paced, and the Broncos offense can’t go blow-for-blow. Watson should be started, because as he proved last week, he can get it done versus the best of them. Still, he’s more of a middling QB1 this week than an elite one.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: The heavy workload for Lindsay continued last week, as he out-touched Freeman 20-9, though it is worth noting that Freeman out-snapped him 31-25. Neither of them was particularly efficient in that game, but it’s good to see Lock target his running backs more than Brandon Allen did. We saw 7-of-28 pass attempts go to the running backs, which is a phenomenal 25 percent target share. The Texans have allowed at least 139 yards on the ground to running backs in each of the last three games they played, but the question is: Can the Broncos run the ball enough to take advantage of the Texans weakness? On the year, opponents have only averaged 20.3 rushing attempts per game against them, which is one of the lower marks in the league, and doesn’t bode well for timeshares, though as we’ve seen the last few weeks, this may not be that. The area the Texans have been destroyed most by running backs is through the air, as they’ve allowed a league-high 202.1 PPR points through the air. That amounts to 16.8 PPR points per game through the air alone. We don’t have a big enough sample size from Lock to say with any certainty he’ll continue to target the running backs, but from what we did see, it’s a plus for Lindsay. Knowing he’s received 14-20 opportunities in each of the last three games, Lindsay should be played as a solid RB2 against the team allowing the fourth-most points per opportunity to running backs. Freeman has RB4 appeal with how much work he sees in the passing game when the Broncos fall behind.

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: Have the Texans finally allowed Johnson a bigger slice of the pie in the backfield? Despite leading throughout the game versus the Patriots, Johnson out-touched Hyde 14-11, which is the first time that’s happened all year. Johnson’s 14 touches netted 90 yards and a touchdown while Hyde’s 11 touches netted 22 scoreless yards. We can’t assume this is here to stay, but it’s a step in the right direction for Johnson, and a step towards irrelevance for Hyde. The Broncos have faced 30.4 running back touches per game this year, which is the third highest number in the league, though efficiency has been weak. They’ve allowed just 0.74 PPR points per opportunity to running backs, which ranks as the seventh lowest mark in the league. If you were to remove the one big game they allowed to Leonard Fournette back in Week 4, that number would be even lower. Over the last two weeks, this defense has been seemingly calling it a year, as they’ve allowed 286 yards on 65 carries (4.40 yards per carry) to the combination of Bills and Chargers running backs, though neither of them scored a rushing touchdown. With the volume available in this game, it’s hard not to say Hyde is a middling RB3 though he’s losing appeal by the day. Johnson’s role could’ve been gameplan-specific against the Patriots, so we don’t want to automatically assume he’s a lock, either. He’s in the mid-to-high-end RB4 territory this week as someone who’s extremely risk/reward, but understand we’ve been fooled before.

WRs
Courtland Sutton: He’s playing like a miniature Calvin Johnson this year, and I don’t throw that name around to just anyone. If you have the chance, go look up his targets on NFL Game Pass, YouTube, or something. He’s getting it done with every quarterback who comes under center. He saw just five targets against the Chargers, which is the most concerning part, as it was just the second time all season he’s seen less than seven targets. It was the first game with Lock under center, so hopefully it was just him checking down a bit more in a tough spot against the Chargers defense. The Texans secondary is not one to fear, though it’s worth noting how they treated Julian Edelman for the first three quarters last week when they double-teamed him all over the field. That’s the only concern for Sutton, though it’s not enough to consider sitting him against a team that’s allowed 12 top-24 performances to wide receivers. The Giants, Bucs, and Vikings are the only teams to allow more 15-plus point receivers. Sutton should be locked-in as a WR2 who may have some ups and downs due to quarterback play, but he’s overcome them time-and-time again. Sutton is one of just three receivers (Michael Thomas, DeVante Parker) who’ve totaled at least 55 yards in 10-of-12 games.

Deandre Hopkins: It may not have been the way anyone wrote it up, but Hopkins finished with 15.6 PPR points against the Patriots last week. With Fuller back in the lineup, he’s seen eight targets in back-to-back games, which is a downgrade from the 12.0 targets per game he saw with him out of the lineup. You have to wonder how the Broncos will handle the receivers for the Texans, as Chris Harris Jr. can only do so much. They’ve had him shadow opposing No. 1 receivers for most of the year but trusting Isaac Yiadom with Fuller could be a mistake. Still, the money should be on Harris shadowing Hopkins here. His numbers in coverage aren’t as good as they were when he was slot-only, but teams have continually avoided him in coverage, as he’s seen just 45 targets come his way, limiting production. The Broncos have yet to allow a receiver more than six receptions all year, which is saying something as we enter Week 14. Knowing Hopkins has averaged just 10.5 yards per reception this year creates a bit of an issue. You’re starting Hopkins as a low-end WR1 in season-long leagues, but he’s not a DFS target in this matchup.

Will Fuller: His stat line would’ve looked a lot better had his long 35-yard touchdown not been overturned. The two targets he received were uncharacteristic, as he’d seen at least six targets in each of his last six full games played. With Hopkins potentially seeing Chris Harris Jr. in shadow coverage this week, it would give Fuller a much better opportunity to produce, though it should be known that the Broncos have allowed just 134.7 yards per game to wide receivers, the fifth lowest mark in the league. It’s really a miracle they haven’t allowed more production to receivers, as their cornerback depth behind Harris Jr. is weak. They decided to go back to Isaac Yiadom last week, a cornerback they benched back in Week 3. He’s been pretty bad in coverage over his two years in the league, allowing 43-of-62 passing for 552 yards and three touchdowns, which is good for a 106.4 QB Rating. Still, somehow, the Broncos have allowed just 32 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which is the seventh-fewest in the league. There are pros and cons of the matchup for Fuller, but he’s someone you have to just plug into lineups as a WR3 and take the good with the bad.

TEs
Noah Fant: All I’ll say is that it’s good Fant is getting a lot of targets, because he’s been somewhat brutal this year. He might as well be labeled as a receiver because he can’t block. We saw Jeff Heuerman out-target him 5-3 in Lock’s first start, which is something to monitor, as Fant needs a lot of targets to be relied upon. Here’s the worrisome part: Fant ran 20 routes while the remaining Broncos tight ends ran 12 routes in Week 12. Then, in Week 13, Fant ran 20 routes while the other tight ends ran 22 of them. His 71.4 percent snap share was his lowest since Week 6, though it’s close to where he’s been, so we’re not in complete panic mode. The Texans haven’t been a matchup you need to attack with streamers, either. They’ve allowed just 1.58 PPR points per target on the year, which is the sixth-best mark in the league. There have been six tight ends who’ve been able to total at least four receptions and 40 yards, so it’s not a must-avoid matchup, but you should know that the tight ends who did hit those marks were Mark Andrews, Eric Ebron (twice), Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce, and Seth DeValve. The only tight end who appears out of place is DeValve, but we can’t pretend his 4/41/0 will win you a week. The loss in target-share is worrisome, so combining that with the matchup, and you have yourself nothing more than a middling TE2.

Darren Fells: The timeshare goes on with Fells and Jordan Akins, though Fells is still on the field for more snaps and runs slightly more routes. Unfortunately, they’re both somewhat useless without a touchdown. Fells has now seen three or less targets in each of the last four games. The only time he’d be considered more than a touchdown-dependent tight end is if Hopkins or Fuller were to miss time. The Broncos have allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends this year despite seeing a healthy 86 targets to the position. There’s also been just three tight ends who’ve totaled more than 44 yards against them, and each of those tight ends saw five-plus targets, a number Fells has hit just three times through 12 games. He’s not a recommended streamer in this matchup.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Total: 44.0
Line: NO by 2.5

QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: It’s hard to take much away from the Week 13 game against the Ravens, as it was raining throughout. As usual, there were some good plays by Garoppolo but there were also some not-so-great throws. The good news is that it appears Sanders and Samuel are healthy. The Saints got Marshon Lattimore back last week, which certainly helps their defense, though they’ve been great regardless. They have not allowed a quarterback to average more than 7.56 yards per attempt since way back in Week 3. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 8-of-12 games, though, as their run defense is stellar, forcing opponents to throw the ball a bit more on the goal-line. The touchdowns have allowed 8-of-12 quarterbacks to finish as top-15 options against them. It also helps that they’ve faced a massive 38.1 pass attempts per game even though their opponents have averaged just 60.3 plays per game. How does that happen? Well, teams are extremely pass-heavy against them, as the 65.7 percent passing-rate is the second-highest mark in the NFL, behind only the Bucs. We have seen Garoppolo drop back to pass much more since the team acquired Emmanuel Sanders, too. Knowing how good the Saints are against the run, this offense will have to move through Garoppolo this week. He has finished as a top-16 quarterback in 4-of-6 games with Sanders on the team, but the issue remains that if he has an off-day throwing the ball, he offers nothing on the ground. That leaves him in middling QB2 territory, though he’s not the worst option.

Drew Brees: The issue when the Saints defense plays well is that it’ll limit Brees’ pass attempts. We saw that happen in Week 13 when he threw just 30 attempts. It’s odd to see that the two games he’s posted less than 20.8 fantasy points this year came each time he played the Falcons. The matchup with the 49ers is going to be a tough one. They’ve been continually getting to the opposing quarterback, generating a sack on 11.3 percent of dropbacks. This is an issue because Brees was without both left tackle Terron Armstead (ankle) and left guard Andrus Peat (forearm) against the Falcons last week. That’s his blind side, so monitoring their health would be wise. Even if they’re healthy, the 49ers have allowed a league-low 161.6 passing yards per game. That’s not a misprint. There’s been just one quarterback to throw for more than 242 yards against them, and that was way back in Week 2. They’ve allowed just 12 passing touchdowns through their 12 games, with no quarterback tossing more than two against them. The only quarterbacks who’ve finished inside the top-10 against them have been Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray (twice), and Andy Dalton. Jackson and Murray are obviously much different players and do a lot of scoring on the ground, while Dalton’s QB10 finish was back in Week 2. We all know Brees offers nothing on the ground, and actually has Taysom Hill stealing some production at quarterback. It’s hard to bet against Brees at home but the 49ers drop him into the high-end QB2 territory.

RBs
Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida: Coming off a game in which we saw Mostert explode for 154 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens, while Kyle Shanahan gave Coleman just six touches, this backfield just got a lot cloudier. That’s not to mention the pending return of Breida, who was close to playing last week, so he should be expected to go. Not only do we have all that to worry about, but this is one of the tougher matchups in the league. There hasn’t been a running back who’s topped 83 yards on the ground against the Saints all year. You’d have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time they allowed a 100-yard rusher. They’ve allowed just one top-10 running back this season, and that’s despite the fact that seven different running backs have amassed 16-plus touches. All in all, they’ve allowed just 97.6 total yards per game to running backs this year, which is ridiculously low number (second-lowest in the NFL) and horrible for timeshare running backs. Because of that, they’ve allowed just eight top-30 running back performances against them all season. It’s not inconceivable to bench all of them until we get more clarity, as we’ve seen four different running backs lead this backfield in production through 12 games. The order I’d rank them in for now would be Mostert, Breida, then Coleman, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Coleman walked right back into his old workload. None of them should be considered anything more than a low-end RB3 this week.

Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: It’s been a rough season for Kamara, who’s found the end zone just twice, and both of those came in the same game way back in Week 3. Since returning from his ankle sprain, Kamara has totaled 39 carries and 37 targets, which amounts to 19.0 opportunities per game. Volume is not an issue for him. On the other hand, Murray needs a positive gamescript, as he’s averaged just 7.8 opportunities per game during that time. The 49ers have shown weakness against the run as of late, so the running backs should be busy in this game. Of the production allowed to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the 49ers have allowed 52.3 percent of that to go to running backs, which ranks the 10th-highest mark in football. The 4.26 yards per carry they’ve allowed is slightly above average, but the lack of touchdowns has crushed running back production overall, as the 0.66 PPR points per opportunity is the best in the league. They’ve been getting slightly worse as the weeks go on, though. After not allowing a running back to finish better than RB30 over their first six games, the 49ers have allowed a top-18 running back in five of their last six games, including Kenyan Drake twice, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, and Jamaal Williams. The only team who didn’t have one was the Ravens last week, as Lamar Jackson steals production from Ingram and the running backs. The production comes on the ground, though, as the 1.21 PPR points per target is the lowest in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 79.7 PPR points through the air to running backs, by far the lowest mark in the league. Kamara should be played as a low-end RB1 who can explode at any moment, making him a good tournament play, though he’s not a cash-game recommendation. Murray might surprise if the Saints get out to a lead, as they’d protect it by running the ball. Knowing the 49ers have allowed just three rushing touchdowns doesn’t give him more than RB4 appeal, though.

WRs
Emmanuel Sanders: He may not have performed like you wanted against the Ravens, but there’s a major plus to take away from that game. He played a full complement of snaps (54-of-55), highlighting his health is back intact. He’s likely to get the Marshon Lattimore treatment in coverage this week, though they may play sides considering how well Eli Apple has played as of late. The duo of Lattimore and Apple have allowed just a 59.3 percent completion-rate in coverage, but have allowed 14.1 yards per completion, which is rather high. They’ve allowed 11 receivers to finish top-24 against them, though it’s important to note that five of those receivers were slot-heavy. Sanders has run 40.1 percent of his routes from the slot while with the 49ers, which is a good thing for his prospects in this game. Knowing the trouble they’ll have running the ball, Sanders should be considered a solid WR3 in this game who should have a stable floor.

Deebo Samuel: He was the 49ers receiver we felt to have the most value last week but knowing that Sanders is back to his full-time role and seemingly over his rib cartilage issue, Samuel moves down the totem pole a bit. He’s still going to be heavily involved in the gameplan, as the Saints may very well be the best run defense in the NFL. Because of that, they’ve faced an average of 21.7 wide receiver targets per game. They haven’t allowed much on a per-target basis, though, as the 1.68 PPR points per target is right around the league average. The real downer in Samuel’s projection is that he runs the fewest routes from the slot of the 49ers’ receivers, and that’s where the Saints have been gashed this season. It means he’ll see Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple for most of the game. There have been just six wide receivers who are primary perimeter players who’ve finished as a top-30 PPR option against the Saints, and all but one of them saw at least nine targets (Brandin Cooks caught three passes for 74 yards and a touchdown to finish as the WR22). That doesn’t give him great odds, leaving him in the high-end WR4 territory this week.

Michael Thomas: It was the first game all year where Thomas was held to less than 54 yards, and it was just the second time he finished with less than eight receptions. That’s nuts. The matchup in Week 14 doesn’t make things easy to bounce back, as the 49ers have had one of the stiffest pass defenses in the league. They’ve allowed just two receivers to top 88 yards all season, and oddly enough, both of them came in the same game. That was way back in Week 2 when Tyler Boyd and John Ross both went over the century mark. It’ll be interesting to see strength versus strength, as the 49ers have allowed just a 56.1 percent completion-rate to receivers, while Thomas has caught a ridiculous 83.3 percent of his targets this year. You know Thomas has caught at least eight receptions in 10-of-12 games this year, but the 49ers have allowed just two receivers to record more than six catches all year. Just two weeks ago we saw Davante Adams see 12 targets and turn them into 7/43/1, which highlights just how difficult the matchup is. You’re starting Thomas as a WR1 in season-long but it’s not a week you must play him in DFS.

Tre’Quan Smith: He’s still playing more snaps than Ted Ginn, though both have been afterthoughts in the Saints passing attack. Smith has yet to see more than three targets in a game, so you can’t confidently start him in good matchups, let alone one against the 49ers, who are one of the best pass defenses in the league.

TEs
George Kittle: It was a messy game against the Ravens last week and Kittle’s finishing line of 2/17/0 confirms it. They threw the ball just 21 times in that game, something that won’t happen this week. The Saints opponents have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game, so when you combine that with Kittle’s tight-end-leading 25 percent target share, we have what should be a sky-high floor. The Saints have been beat over the middle of the field this year and when targeted, tight ends have caught 73.7 percent of their targets, which is the third-highest mark in the league. We’ve seen six tight ends finish as the TE13 or better, though none have finished in the top-five. There have been seven tight ends who’ve totaled at least 41 yards but none who’ve topped 88 yards. Looking over their schedule, they’ve had one of the easiest ones in football. Start Kittle as a high-end TE1 and have little concern.

Jared Cook: Since Brees has returned, Cook has seen 26 targets over the four games, turning them into 17 receptions, 291 yards, and two touchdowns. He dropped a would-be touchdown in the game against the Falcons last week and had another target seemingly go right through his hands on another. He’s been an inconsistent player throughout his career, so why should we expect that to change now? But the fact that he’s now totaled at least 74 yards in three of the last four games, he should be considered a near must-start. I say “near” because he’s not a must-start this week against the 49ers. They’re the league’s No. 1 defense against the tight end position. The Bills are close in terms of points per game allowed, but the biggest indicator in tight end success is the yards per target they’ve allowed. The 49ers 4.79 yards per target is far and away the best in the league, as it’s nearly 20 percent better than the closest team (Vikings). There have been four different games this year where Cook has seen three or less targets, which will bury your team if the Saints understand how good the 49ers have been against the position. He’s still in the streaming conversation due to the fact that he has Brees as his quarterback and he can create big plays with his athleticism, but he’s far from a lock for production.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Total: 41.0
Line: CLE by 8.5

QBs
Andy Dalton: His final stat line may look mediocre from last week but know that both Uzomah and Eifert dropped passes in the end zone. He played a competent game, which is much more than Ryan Finley can say. The Browns defense is obviously shorthanded without Myles Garrett and Morgan Burnett, though they’ve played Devlin Hodges and Ryan Fitzpatrick over the last two weeks, which has allowed them to look halfway decent. Their sack-rate of 8.24 percent does rank as the seventh best mark in football, so they do get after the quarterback. The good news is that their biggest weakness happens to be the Bengals’ biggest strength through the air, which is in the slot. We’ve watched 9-of-12 quarterbacks generated two-plus touchdowns against the Browns, with the only exceptions being Hodges, Luke Falk, and Mason Rudolph, all backups. Dalton should offer a somewhat stable QB2 floor in this game, though his low implied team total is concerning for his ceiling.

Baker Mayfield: Don’t hold a bad game against the Steelers against them, as they’ve been one of the toughest matchups in football since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Bengals on the other hand, are not. The only two quarterbacks who’ve finished with less than 16.3 fantasy points against them were the last two who played them, Sam Darnold and Devlin Hodges/Mason Rudolph. The issue for expecting too big of a performance out of a quarterback playing the Bengals has been limitations on his pass attempts. There has been just one quarterback all season who’s totaled more than 36 pass attempts, and that was Darnold last week, who was just the second quarterback to average less than 7.2 yards per attempt against them all season. Mayfield himself has cleared that number just four times all season, though his last cake matchup was one he took full advantage of, throwing for 327 yards and three touchdowns against the Dolphins. The Bengals have allowed an average of 90.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks/running backs/wide receivers/tight ends, which ranks as the 12th-most, and might surprise some people. It’s not quite the matchup with the Dolphins, who have allowed 100.8 points per game. This matchup should net a middling QB2 floor with a top-10-type ceiling for Mayfield, as the run-game should go bananas, limiting his upside.

RBs
Joe Mixon: He’s totaled at least 16 touches in each of the last five games, as the Bengals are letting him run with the workhorse job. Even more good news is that he ran a season-high 22 pass routes yesterday in a game they were leading throughout. Is it possible that he’s finally going to be utilized in the passing game like he should? The Browns have been slightly below average on both the ground and through the air to running backs, and we just watched Benny Snell turn in 67 yards and a touchdown against them on 17 touches last week. There have been just nine running backs who’ve totaled double-digit carries against the Browns this year, which is odd in itself, but the worrisome part is that just six of them finished as top-36 options. Mark Ingram, Sony Michel, and Todd Gurley failed to get into that territory, though that’s likely due to the fact that they combined for exactly zero yards through the air. The remaining six all finished as top-24 options. Knowing we’re trending in the right direction with Mixon’s passing usage, he should be in lineups as a stable low-end RB2 this week.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Since joining the team, Hunt has now outscored Chubb in three of four games if you’re playing in a PPR format. Hunt is doing a lot with a little, and those targets are worth more than twice as much as carries are. If you were ever looking for a game for these two back to simply go wild, this is it. The Bengals have faced an average of 29.5 running back touches per game this year, which is more than enough touches to go around. Even better? They’ve allowed a well-above-average 4.67 yards per carry, 7.38 yards per target, and consistently struggle with tackling. Chubb and Hunt have combined to break 84 tackles this year, which is the most of any duo in football. Knowing the volume will be there, combined with their efficiency and tackle-breaking potential, and this has multiple touchdown game written all over it. They have allowed 12 different running backs to total 14.2 or more PPR points against them, which is tied for the Lions as the most in the NFL. Chubb is an elite RB1 who has totaled at least 20 carries in eight of his last 10 games. While his lack of usage in the passing game is a bit frustrating, he’s worthy of cash games this week. Hunt makes for a high-end RB3 in this contest and one who presents more upside than most in that range. He may not have the 15-touch floor that some do, but his efficiency helps make up for that, kind of like Austin Ekeler.

WRs
Tyler Boyd: He welcomed Dalton back with open arms, as he saw a team-high 10 targets, turning them into 5/59/1 in what’s been a tough matchup in the slot against the Jets. Now going into a matchup with the Browns, you don’t have to worry about him simply disappearing like he did with Finley under center. The Browns have had trouble with slot-heavy receivers this year, as evidenced by the 11/102/2 to Cooper Kupp in Week 3 and the 8/78/2 to Julian Edelman in Week 8. It’s T.J. Carrie they have defending that area right now, a veteran cornerback who kind of is what he is at this point. He’s allowed a 72.5 percent catch-rate in his coverage, a healthy 12.4 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 12.8 targets in his coverage. With Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams defending Tate on the perimeter, Boyd should be a hot target this week, so play him as a high-end WR3.

Auden Tate: He’s now seen at least six targets in 9-of-10 games as a starter, which gives you confidence starting him most weeks as a receiver with a stable floor. In the seven games with Dalton, he’s totaled at least 50 yards in six of them. Now onto a matchup with the Browns, who do have much better perimeter cornerback play than in the slot, which is a downgrade for his stock. The duo of Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams has combined to allow just 39-of-81 passing for 555 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a weak 48.1 percent catch-rate, 6.85 yards per target, and a touchdown every 40.5 targets in coverage. That’s not a matchup you should be attacking with many receivers. Because of that, Tate must be downgraded, as he doesn’t have as high of a floor as he typically would. Still, he’s a big-bodied receiver who would benefit from them falling behind, like the implied line says. He’s a mid-to-low-end WR4 this week, and not one you must play.

John Ross: We’ve heard whispers that Ross may play in Week 14, though nothing is concrete just yet. Stay tuned for more information.

Odell Beckham: It is what it is at this point. Beckham has scored fewer points than Cole Beasley this year. I wish I were kidding. He should be considered a low0end WR2/high-end WR3 in fantasy football because that’s where he lies in the season-long standings. With that said, we’re getting sucked in again this week, as the Bengals are a team to attack with wide receivers as long as they’re getting targets. Beckham has seen at least six targets in every game and has generated at least 52 yards in 9-of-12 games, so he’s not a complete bust; he just has no “boom” games outside of his Week 2 performance against the Jets. The Bengals have allowed the 10th fewest PPR points to wide receivers this year, though it’s only due to volume, as the 9.69 yards per target ranks third-most in the NFL. Receivers have averaged just 16.6 targets per game against them, but fortunately for Beckham, the Browns are very top-heavy in their target hierarchy. After watching Robby Anderson go for 7/101/0 against this team last week, I’m buying the Beckham Kool-Aid and playing him as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this week.

Jarvis Landry: After a short hiatus, Landry was back in the slot 68 percent of the time in Week 13. After running 71 percent of his routes from the slot in Weeks 1-9, here are his slot percentages over the last four weeks: 34-52-29-68. It’s clear they’re using him in a variety of ways, and it’s worked as he currently sits as the WR12 on the season. Knowing he’s seen 10-plus targets in five of his last six game (since the bye week), he can be started with confidence against the Bengals. While they’ve allowed just the 10th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, volume has been the only reason, as the 9.69 yards per target they’ve allowed is the third highest mark in the league. The Bengals have Darqueze Dennard manning the slot for them, and he’s done a solid job since returning from injury, as he’s allowed just 10-of-18 passing for 90 scoreless yards. He’s not the only one Landry will see considering how much they’re moving him around, but his matchup may not be as good as Beckham’s this week. You should still be playing him as a mid-to-high-end WR2 with how much he’s getting targeted.

TEs
C.J. Uzomah: It seems the Bengals are finally moving on from the old, creaky, washed version of Tyler Eifert, as he fell behind Uzomah in both snaps, routes, and targets last week. Both of them dropped a pass in the end zone last week, so it’s just a bad time all around. The matchup against the Browns has been a good one for tight ends, so we should at least consider the idea of streaming one of them. Of the seven tight ends who’ve seen more than three targets against the Browns, six of them have finished as top-16 options, including five of them finishing as top-eight options. The 1.96 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is tied for the fifth highest mark to tight ends, though teams have seldomly targeted their tight ends against them, as evidenced by the 5.8 targets per game, which ranks as the ninth-fewest in football. Still, Dalton does average 41.7 pass attempts per game in his nine starts, so there are targets to go around. While it’s impossible to say Uzomah is more than a middling TE2, he’s not the worst option if you’re in a real pinch.

David Njoku: This was supposed to be the start of a beautiful playoff run for Njoku, though it’s going to be tough to trust him, if he’s activated at all. Njoku himself has stated that he’s healthy and ready to go, but the Browns have chosen not to activate him. When he is activated, it seems like he’ll be good to go, though it may take time to get back up to speed on the field. It’s tough because the Bengals have been a matchup to target with streamers this year, as they’ve allowed 9.07 yards per target to the position, which is behind only the Panthers and Cardinals. But knowing this is likely to be a low volume game from the passing standpoint, it’s going to be difficult to find more than a small handful of targets for him. Can he turn them into a top-12 performance? Sure, but it’s not something you want to rely on in his first game back, which happens to be a win-or-go-home week in fantasy. He gets the Cardinals next week, so don’t let him go. *Update* Njoku has been activated and is going to play this week.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 47.5
Line: ATL by 3.0

QBs
Kyle Allen: The final stat line for Allen may look good for fantasy owners, but he had a rough game against the Redskins last week. He was sacked seven times, completed just 58.7 percent of his passes, and fumbled twice (losing one). He’s now fumbled an absurd 10 times this year. Ever since the Falcons bye week, they’ve seemingly been a different team. They’ve had some tough competition (Drew Brees twice, Jameis Winston, Allen), but have allowed just 99-of-153 passing for 1,109 yards (277.3 per game), four touchdowns (1.0 per game), and six interceptions (1.5 per game). Allen’s performance was the worst of the bunch, as he threw for 325 yards, no touchdowns, and four interceptions. It’s odd to think they turned a corner, but it appears they have. They’ll also have had a full 10 days to prepare for this game after playing on Thanksgiving Day. The only plus for Allen is that the Falcons failed to generate a sack in each of the last two games after sacking him five times in Week 11. It’s not like Allen has shown enough of a ceiling where you need to take the risk to play him as anything more than a low-end QB2.

Matt Ryan: He’s had some issues since returning from his ankle sprain, as he’s now finished three of the four games averaging 6.2 or less yards per attempt. It doesn’t help that he was without Julio Jones for Week 13 but there’s definitely concern as we head into the fantasy playoffs. The good news is that Ryan’s one good game since returning came against the Panthers when he completed 21-of-31 passes for 311 yards and a touchdown in Week 11. It’s difficult to take much away from them holding Dwayne Haskins to just 147 yards and no touchdowns, as that’s kind of the norm. There have been just five quarterbacks who’ve finished better than the QB20 against the Panthers this year, and the one thing they have in common is pass attempts. Ryan was the only one who finished with more than 13.6 fantasy points without throwing the ball 39-plus times. The Panthers have lost both defensive tackles Dontari Poe and Kawann Short, and have really struggled to stop the run, so more attention could be focused on that are of the field in their practices this week, which could lend to more production in the passing game for the Falcons. He’s no longer a locked-in must-start with the way the defense is playing, but he can be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 provided Julio is back in the lineup. If Julio sits, Ryan is just a middling QB2.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: Week 13 was one to forget for McCaffrey, who had a rare bad game. If only everyone else’s bad games netted a top-15 finish in PPR formats, eh? Despite not scoring in his first matchup with the Falcons, McCaffrey totaled 191 total yards and finished as the RB1 on the week in PPR formats. Going over his last three matchups with the Dan Quinn defense, McCaffrey has totaled a ridiculous 37 receptions for 300 yards, though he oddly hasn’t scored a touchdown on them. Those would be elite numbers for a wide receiver, let alone a running back. If he has another game like he did in Week 11, we could see McCaffrey make a push for the elusive 1,000/1,000 season. As of now, he’s on pace for 1,556 rushing yards and 859 receiving yards. The only two running backs to ever do it were Marshall Faulk (1999) and Roger Craig (1985). Running backs have not been particularly efficient against the Falcons this year, as their 0.77 PPR points per opportunity against them ranks as the 12th-fewest. Still, McCaffrey isn’t every running back and it’s not like you’re contemplating sitting him. I just need something to write here is all.

Devonta Freeman: He made it through the Thanksgiving Day game unscathed, though it wasn’t a particularly good outing. He did total 60 snaps which tied a season-high for him, while his 21 touches were the second-highest total of the year. It surely helped that Julio Jones was out of the lineup to free up some targets, though he’s expected back this week. The matchup with the Panthers has been the best in football this year. They’re coming off a home game in which they allowed 242 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to the Redskins backfield. Over their last six games, the only backfield who failed to average at least 4.88 yards per carry was the Falcons when they were forced to start Brian Hill. Outside of that game, they’ve allowed at least 20 PPR points to every backfield since Week 2, including 31-plus points to five of the last six opponents. They have allowed 22 touchdowns to the running back position through 12 games, which is four more than the closest team (Lions). Knowing the Falcons are at home and favored is just a bonus. Freeman should be in lineups as a high-end RB2 this week.

WRs
D.J. Moore: He just continues to climb the yearly leaderboard, as he’s now the No. 9 receiver on the year. It surely helps that he ranks fifth in the league with 115 targets, but that’s necessary when you have Cam Newton and Kyle Allen throwing to you. He’s seen at least eight targets in each of the last eight games and is now about to play a Falcons team that’s allowed the seventh-most points to the wide receiver position. The high-floor with his target share should mean an extremely high-floor in his performance this week, as the Falcons have allowed the second-most yards per target and PPR points per target. The combination of Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver has played much better since their bye week, allowing 26-of-37 passing for 298 yards and no touchdowns, though Moore was still able to rack-up eight catches for 95 yards in a game Allen clearly didn’t have “it” against them in that stretch. Continue playing Moore as a high-end WR2 though this matchup doesn’t look quite as good as it did just a month ago.

Curtis Samuel: It seemed as if Samuel was going to make up for lost production last week when he caught a touchdown early-on, but Allen’s struggles limited his output. While he did finish with 65 yards and a touchdown, it could’ve been so much more, as Allen completely overthrew him on what would have been an 81-yard touchdown where Samuel’s defender fell down. That’s been the case with Samuel all year, as Allen has been the league’s most inaccurate deep-ball passer, as he’s completed just 8-of-38 passes that have traveled over 20 yards. The Falcons have allowed 45 pass plays to go for 20-plus yards, but again, you’re relying on Allen to hit Samuel in stride. Knowing he’s seen at least six targets in 10 of the last 11 games, Samuel should still be in high-end WR4 territory. It’s more about Allen than it is about the matchup, which has gotten much harder over the last month.

Julio Jones: The Falcons expect to get Jones back this week after he was forced to miss the game against the Saints on Thanksgiving. Make sure you stay tuned for updates to his status, as I’ll post them here on Saturday. He saw eight targets against the Panthers in their Week 11 matchup that netted six catches for 91 scoreless yards. After scoring in each of the first three games this year, Jones has failed to find the end zone in each of his last eight games. Here we go again. The Panthers hasn’t been the best matchup for fantasy receivers, though they haven’t been one to really worry about, either. They’ve allowed five different receivers to finish as top-five options against them, so the ceiling is there. The Panthers have done a solid job containing Jones over the last two years, as they’ve played three times, and he’s averaged 5.0 receptions for 61.0 yards and 0.33 touchdowns in those games. That’s not exactly close to what many expect of him, but you’re still starting him as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 if he plays in season-long leagues. He’s not someone you need to target in cash games, however. *Update* Jones is going to play this week. 

Calvin Ridley: He did a good job stepping in for Jones as the Falcons go-to receiver last week, hauling in 8-of-10 targets for 91 yards. It was the third time this year he’s caught eight balls, and one of them came against the Panthers. Back in Week 11 he caught all eight of his targets for a season-high 143 yards and a touchdown. With a lot of James Bradberry‘s focus on Jones, it allows Ridley to school the speedster Donte Jackson in coverage. Ridley has played against the Panthers three times in his NFL career and has scored in each of them. Even if he doesn’t take the center stage with Jones back, the Panthers have allowed 14 different receivers finish as top-30 options against them. With Hooper out of the lineup, Ridley has totaled 32 targets over the last three games. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3.

Russell Gage: His target totals since Mohamed Sanu has left have gone 9-5-4-10-9. He’s clearly a bit part of the offense, though his lowest targeted game did come against these Panthers in Week 11. He caught just two passes for 32 yards, though there was a touchdown in there that was overturned, as the ball moved a bit when he somewhat trapped it with the ground, so it was close to a decent game. It’s also important to monitor Hooper’s status, as he’ll cap the target ceiling for Gage. When attempting to cover pass-catchers in the slot, the Panthers have allowed an 83.5 percent catch-rate, though they’ve kept the play in front of them, as the 8.55 yards per reception suggests. There are a lot of factors here with Gage, as you have to pay attention to the status of Jones and Hooper. If either of them was to be held out, it would raise Gage’s appeal, though he’s likely in the low-end WR4 conversation with a decent floor but lackluster ceiling.

TEs
Greg Olsen or Ian Thomas: It’s probably best to be prepared to be without Olsen this week, as he took a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit in their Week 13 game that knocked him unconscious. He’ll have to go through the concussion protocol this week, so stay tuned for updates on his status. Thomas has only seen nine targets this season, turning them into 5/28/0, but we have seen him in the lead role before. He had to fill-in from Week 13-17 last year and averaged 6.4 targets, 5.0 receptions, 49.2 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game. That was with Cam Newton under center, but it goes to show he’s capable of playing in this scheme/role. The Falcons have allowed 7-of-11 tight ends who’ve played against them to post top-14 numbers against them, including Olsen who totaled 5/57/0 against them in Week 11 on just five targets. Any tight end who’s seen more than two targets against them has totaled at least 46 yards and/or a touchdown. The Falcons were actually one of the teams he started against last year, finishing with 4/48/1 on five targets. If Olsen is out, Thomas should be considered a high-end TE2. If Olsen plays, he’s in the low-end TE1 conversation. *Update* Olsen has officially been ruled out for this game. 

Austin Hooper or Jaeden Graham: For now, it’s best for us to prepare to be without Austin Hooper, though if he plays, it’s likely that you’ll want him in lineups. Graham has done a fine job filling his role, though he hasn’t been targeted nearly as much. He’s now caught 9-of-10 targets on the year for 149 yards and a touchdown, which is obviously fantastic. The last time they played the Panthers, he caught both of his targets for 23 yards. Here’s something crazy for you guys/gals. Most would assume the Cardinals have allowed the most of everything to the tight end position, but nope. The Panthers have allowed 9.41 yards per target to the position, which slightly edges out the Cardinals’ 9.40 yards per target. The difference is that the Cardinals have faced 104 targets while the Panthers have faced just 59 targets (tied for the lowest in the league). Knowing Graham has yet to see more than four targets, he’s not a recommended streamer, especially if Jones is back in the lineup. If Hooper plays, he’d slide right back in as a must-play TE1. *Update* Hooper is expected to be active and play a full-time role in this game.