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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 17

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 17

The holidays bring a minefield of traditions to love and loathe. I’m starting cookies, the claymation episode of Community, and the general warmth of family bonding in my fantasy winter lineup. On the other hand, I can’t wait to bench Christmas songs until next December. It’s the same seven ones played on a tortuous loop, and they’re mostly all annoying or creepy (looking at you, Baby, It’s Cold Outside.) Christmas songs are the kickers of this season. It’s time to ban them once and for all.

Wait, what was I supposed to be writing about? Right, Week 17. Plenty of leagues play through the final whistle, and those competitors will have to secure a championship without Lamar Jackson, Chris Carson, and other stars who got them this far. I won’t spend time highlighting any of them, but all Ravens, Bills, or Vikings starters should ride the pine.

For the final time this season, here’s a rundown of players at the center of start/sit quandaries. The following Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) were taken on Tuesday night and apply to half-PPR formats.

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Quarterback

Start: Carson Wentz (PHI) at NYG: QB9 ECR
The Giants stymied Wentz for three quarters in Week 14. Then he remembered he was facing the Giants. Rough start aside, he still compiled 325 passing yards and two touchdowns in a come-from-behind win. He’s produced multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games despite Philadelphia’s depleted receiving corps, which will get even weaker if Zach Ertz can’t go. Even with all of these injuries, start Wentz against the 26th-ranked passing offense with a playoff berth at stake. Packaging together Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum‘s 270 yards and three touchdowns from last Sunday, the Giants have allowed at least 18 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in each of the last eight games. Any team that can drag Washington’s bottom-ranked passing offense to a shootout can still get dissected by Wentz and his ragtag allotment of pass-catchers.

Sit: Andy Dalton (CIN) vs. CLE: QB16 ECR
You’re likely thinking “duh doy” right about now, but Dalton’s ECR places him as the week’s second-best quarterback streamer behind Daniel Jones. This seems like a steep overreaction to a 38-35 overtime loss to the Dolphins in which the Red Rifle attempted 56 passes. The opponent, 21-point deficit, and Joe Mixon’s illness all produced a perfect storm for Dalton, whose Bengals avoided an actual storm at Miami. His four touchdowns marked the first time he tossed more than two in a game this season. He hadn’t even offered that many since Week 5 against the Cardinals, the only team to allow more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Dolphins. Ranking ninth in passing defense, the Browns present a much more capable competitor. Pickings are slim, but anyone reaching this far down the ranks might be better off utilizing the opposing Baker Mayfield or even hoping the Patriots rest their starters late against Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Running Back

Start: Damien Williams (KC) vs. LAC: RB24 ECR
Just as everyone gave up on Kansas City’s backfield, some clarity emerged. Damien Williams returned from a rib injury last Sunday night. LeSean McCoy, who wasn’t on the injury report, was inactive. Playing 35 of 66 snaps, Williams registered 92 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches. Remember, this wasn’t always a confusing committee. Before going down in Week 11, Williams had taken over with 237 yards and two touchdowns in two games. His fellow D. Williams, Darrel, is out of the picture due to a season-ending hamstring injury. The opposing Chargers, meanwhile, have steered replacement runners Mike Boone and DeAndre Washington to fantasy glory in back-to-back bouts. Don’t be surprised if Williams shoots into the ECR’s top 20 by game day.

Sit: Ronald Jones II (TB) vs. ATL: RB29 ECR
I can only get fooled so many times. Jones jaunted his way to 109 yards and a touchdown last Saturday against Houston. He’s now tallied 44 touches in the last three games, so maybe he’s finally Tampa Bay’s lead back. If that sentiment sounds familiar, it’s because you’ve probably read it once every three weeks. Sharing the workload with Peyton Barber, Jones delivered 116 total yards combined over the previous three games. His snap count has steadily risen throughout December, but a similar trend abruptly halted in Week 13 because of a missed block. Bruce Arians can’t be trusted to feed his younger back a full plate against the Falcons, who haven’t permitted a 75-yard rusher after Week 9. They have since encountered Christian McCaffrey (twice), Alvin Kamara, and Leonard Fournette.

Wide Receiver

Start: Golden Tate (NYG) vs. PHI: WR37 ECR
Nobody knows how to rank the Giants’ receiving trio, so Tate, Darius Slayton (WR32 ECR), and Sterling Shepard (WR35) all get mashed together in the low-end WR3 range. Let’s see how they’ve fared in games started by Daniel Jones:

Player GP AVG TAR AVG REC YPG TD
Darius Slayton 11 5.8 3.4 45.9 5
Sterling Shepard 6 8.0 5.5 59.3 3
Golden Tate 8 8.5 5.3 68.3 4

 

Slayton is easily the most hit-or-miss option, but he tops the ECR after previously dominating the Eagles with Eli Manning. While Jones doesn’t have a strong favorite between Shepard and Tate, the latter offers the most stability. After collecting one pass – one of which went for a 51-yard score — in each game with Manning, Tate secured six of a team-high 11 targets for 96 yards in Week 16’s overtime win over Washington. He leads this group with six red-zone targets and catches (all from Jones) this season. The Eagles have ceded the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, so don’t panic over Tate’s 11-yard dud in Week 14. The experts, however, aren’t wrong to also like Shepard’s heavy involvement and Slayton’s big-play ceiling.

Sit: Mike Williams (LAC) at KC: WR26 ECR
Williams has 400 more yards than Tate in just six more catches. The wideouts have taken vastly different paths to their matching 0.49 weighted opportunity rating. Williams has collected at least 45 yards in every game since Week 1, and he finally saw some positive touchdown regression this month. He’s also drawn just three or four targets four times since the start of Week 9, so there’s still risk in a tough spot. Entering the season as a dream matchup, the Chiefs have instead stifled wide receivers to the second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points. They’ve yielded an NFL-low 9.5 catches per game to the position, and Williams accounted for just two of them (for 76 yards) in Week 11. Proceed with caution in PPR leagues.

Tight End

Start: O.J. Howard (TB) vs. ATL: TE10 ECR
Back in Week 12, Howard caught one of two targets for 10 yards against the Falcons. This immediately followed a catchless performance from one of 2019’s biggest disappointments. Yes, that header says “Start.” Howard has since reeled in 226 receiving yards on 25 targets in four games. Even with Cameron Brate healthy, he’s logged a snap rate in the 83-88% range each time. He’s yet to make the most of extra exposure with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out of the lineup, delivering 46 yards in consecutive games. Despite the iffy results, he’s a tight end in the NFL’s top-ranked passing offense receiving more attention because of key injuries. This at least elevates his floor, and it’s possible he finally unlocks his ceiling and surpasses 75 yards for the first time in 2019.

Sit: Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. NO: TE16 ECR
Olsen returned from a concussion to see a new quarterback under center. In a 38-6 shellacking that the tight end described as “about as rock-bottom as it gets,” he caught two of five targets for 33 yards from Will Grier. The Panthers understandably limited him to 40 of 70 snaps, his lowest rate in a full game. Olsen is yet to find the end zone against anyone but Arizona, and the Saints have surrendered five touchdowns to tight ends all season. Go for youth and sit the 34-year-old for Howard, Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, or Kaden Smith.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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