We have a ten-game slate to get through on this December Wednesday. There are no big-time injury situations to take advantage of at this time, so our focus will be more on good matchups and exploitable price tags. Here we go!
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Guards
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,300 vs. Nets
Brooklyn has been allowing shot totals in the mid 90’s lately (the league average shots attempted per game is 89), and they have not been good at defending guards this year. They have allowed some massive scoring days against guards like Young (Lillard dropped 60 on them and Kemba had a 39 point game), and Trae Young is one of the highest upside fantasy players in the league. Young has not been putting up huge fantasy scores in his last few games as he has taken a few less shots and the rebounds have not come his way, and that has kept the price down at this near $10,000 range, which is pretty strong for a guy with his ceiling. You can easily see Young scoring 40 here and adding another 20 fantasy points on with peripherals.
We have a ten-game slate to get through on this December Wednesday. There are no big-time injury situations to take advantage of at this time, so our focus will be more on good matchups and exploitable price tags. Here we go!
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Guards
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,300 vs. Nets
Brooklyn has been allowing shot totals in the mid 90’s lately (the league average shots attempted per game is 89), and they have not been good at defending guards this year. They have allowed some massive scoring days against guards like Young (Lillard dropped 60 on them and Kemba had a 39 point game), and Trae Young is one of the highest upside fantasy players in the league. Young has not been putting up huge fantasy scores in his last few games as he has taken a few less shots and the rebounds have not come his way, and that has kept the price down at this near $10,000 range, which is pretty strong for a guy with his ceiling. You can easily see Young scoring 40 here and adding another 20 fantasy points on with peripherals.
Zach LaVine (SG – CHI): $8,500 vs. Grizzlies
This goes against my general rule of not playing guys at the peak prices (LaVine is $500 more than his previous season-high on FanDuel tonight), but the matchup is too good to ignore. The Bulls have a projected team total of 113, five points above their season average Vegas projection, and the Grizzlies are the second-worst defensive team in the league by my metrics. LaVine has also been in great form recently, averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute over his last five games while he season average sits at 1.17. The huge price increase really takes away some of the ceiling here, but the floor is pretty nice in this spot.
Buddy Hield (SG – SAC): $7,400 @ Trail Blazers
The Blazers are a well below-average defensive team, adding 9.4 fantasy points on to their opponent’s averages. Hield has been taking a ton of shots since De’Aaron Fox was injured, averaging 23 field goal attempts over his last four games. He has not shot all that well (shooting 24% from three over his last three games), which has kept his price at a point that is way too low. He does not offer a ton of peripherals, which keeps him with a low floor if the shots really do not fall, but I have a hard time seeing Hield really killing you in this matchup, and he has a massive ceiling if the shots go down.
Kendrick Nunn (PG – MIA): $4,800 @ Celtics
The Goran Dragic injury is probably a bigger deal than it would seem, he was absorbing a ton of usage when on the floor. Nunn took a ridiculous 16 shot attempts last night in the Heat’s first game without Dragic, but made just three of them so his price stayed stagnant. This is not a great matchup, but $4,800 for a guy that should shoot the ball 15+ times and chip in some rebounds and assists is just too cheap. He is one of the most underpriced plays that I am seeing.
Kris Dunn (PG – CHI): $4,700 vs. Grizzlies
We talked about how great of a spot this is for the Bulls in the LaVine writeup, and Dunn’s minutes have shot way up over the last two games, playing 29 and 30 minutes. There is certainly no guarantee that he will continue to see those minutes; he has had a handful of games under 20 minutes played, so I would not consider this a strong cash play, but I do like it for tourneys. Dunn is a 0.9 fantasy point per minute player this year, and this matchup should add to that. If he plays 30 minutes, you have a really good shot at a 30+ fantasy point output, which would absolutely crush this price tag.
Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF – MIL): $12,400 vs. Pistons
This price is pretty wild, but if you have the money to pay it I think it is worth a tournament shot. The Bucks have been very conservative with the minutes for their best player, as he has commonly played in the low to mid-twenties while the Bucks blow teams out. If he does not play more than 30 minutes in this game, there is almost no chance he reaches value at this salary, but the upside is well worth a gamble in tournaments as it is unlikely that he carries much ownership tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis (PF – DAL): $8,100 vs Timberwolves
This is a back-to-back for the Mavs, which lowers our projection on Kristaps a tiny bit, but they also carry the highest Vegas implied total which gives us some confidence right back. Porzingis was vultured last night by Doncic grabbing 18 rebounds, but that led to his price falling to a season-low tonight. He has a 16% share of the Mavericks fantasy points scored in games he has played in, and the Mavericks should be near the top of the list in scoring tonight, so I like buying low on Porzingis here and hoping he can steal a few rebounds back from Luka tonight.
Harrison Barnes (SF – SAC): $5,600 @ Trail Blazers
It is never exciting to play Barnes, but it almost never really kills you either. He has averaged 35 minutes a night this year and has taken 12 shots a game. In the last three, he has taken 16 shots a game and has been a pretty solid fantasy contributor. His price remains a bit too low for the floor he brings to the table, and this is a great matchup. The Blazers have been best exploited with wing players, and while I am not a huge subscriber to playing that philosophy, it is worth noting. Barnes is a solid cash game piece that helps you get to some of the more expensive guys tonight.
Frank Kaminsky (PF – PHO): $4,300 vs. Magic
Aron Baynes will miss another game tonight and FanDuel did not seem to notice. They left Kaminsky at $4,300 despite him playing 33 minutes on Monday without Baynes available. He is a 0.9 fantasy point per minute guy on the year, so even if you knock that down to 0.75 for the tough matchup with the Magic, he still projects to fantasy points in the mid-twenties, which is an awesome return at $4,300. Take advantage of this pricing mistake.
Centers
Cody Zeller (C – CHA): $5,300 vs. Warriors
There is really not much to like at center tonight, but Zeller stands out in this matchup against the Warriors who have given up monstrous games to centers all year long. Clint Capela, Hassan Whiteside, Rudy Gobert, and Kristaps Porzingis have all had some of their best games this season against Golden State. One hesitation would be that Zeller has played less than 20 minutes in his last three games as he has recently been dealing with a bruised hip. The minutes projections on Zeller suggest that he is healthy and should get into the mid-twenties again tonight, and if that is the case he should really crush this price tag.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.