We have a pretty big ten-game slate on this fine December Friday. I created a new metric to add to my DraftKings analysis toolbox here, so let me explain that first so you know what I am talking about when I mention it.

Average Value Allowed By Position: I have been using some Python scripts to store every player box score and all of the salary data each day of the season. Thanks to this, I can look back at each team and see the score values they have allowed to each position. What is different about this and the other defense vs. position metrics you will find is that it considers each player’s DFS price for each game. If the Warriors allow 50 DraftKings points to Andre Drummond, that is not the same as them allowing 50 to Cody Zeller, since those prices will be much different and the Zeller 50 is much more valuable. For each team, I have an “average value allowed” against guards, wings, and big men (I categorized each player into one of those three categories by myself). You will see that metric pop up a few times in this post.

Now we will get into these player picks now!

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings

Guards

Kawhi Leonard (SG/SF – LAC): $8,400 @ Bucks
We have a decent sample of games now with Kawhi and Paul George playing full minutes together, and it has really started to seem like Kawhi is the fantasy alpha in this offense. In their last six games played together, Kawhi has scored 17.5% of the Clippers fantasy points while George has a 15% share. He is leading the team in field goal attempts, points, and is second behind Harrell in rebounding, and he is averaging 43 DraftKings points in these games. That is not a smash at $8,400 but he also has only been over 30 minutes in one of those games, so if you think this matchup will bring extra minutes to Kawhi (I do), you should be feeling pretty confident about this floor/ceiling combo for Leonard.

Jimmy Butler (SG/SF – MIA): $8,100 vs. Wizards
DraftKings just does not want to raise Butler’s price to where it should be. He is up $800 since his last game, but we are still at least $500 too cheap here for what he has been doing. In the last two games without Goran Dragic, Butler has a 28% usage rate, he is shooting 17 times per game and has scored 1.5 fantasy points per minute. He has also played 41 and 37 minutes in those games. If he plays 35+ minutes against the Wizards, 40 fantasy points lock is darn near a lock. Guards are averaging a 5.91x return on their salary against the Wizards, and wing players are averaging 5.81 – so this is an incredible spot for Butler. For reference, if you spent all $50,000 of your salary allotment and achieved a 5.9x return on it, you would score 290 points – a very big score. Jimmy really stands out tonight.

Derrick Rose (PG/SG – DET): $5,400 vs. Pacers
The minutes have been consistently low for Rose, with his max being 27 and his minimum being 23 for the year. When you cannot get 30+ from a guard, you really need a good shooting night to have a good DFS play, so this is more of a tournament play for me. The matchup is actually quite good as guards have averaged a 5.56x return on their salaries against the Pacers (who have been really tough on wings and big men). Rose still has a 31% usage rate on the year even with Blake Griffin having a month under his belt, so there is huge upside with Rose at this price.

Ish Smith (PG – WAS): $3,600 @ Heat
Isaiah Thomas was a late scratch last night with a left calf strain, so his status is much in doubt again tonight. That frees up a ton of point guard minutes for Smith, who capitalized in a big way last night playing 34 minutes and scoring 33 DraftKings points. He did get there on a very good shooting (7/11), but he added eight assists and had a strong enough 16% usage rate. The Thomas news must have come out after tonight’s prices were put out, because the price on Ish has not moved, so this is a cash game lock play assuming IT2 remains out.

Forwards / Centers

Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF/PF – MIL): $11,300 vs. Clippers
From a strict NBA fan perspective, this is the game of the night as two of the league’s best team meet up. Right now Vegas has the Bucks as just a 3.5 point favorite, so this one should be very competitive. When Giannis plays 32 or more minutes, he averages 68.5 fantasy points, which is more than a 6x return on this salary, making Giannis my favorite way to spend money tonight.

LeBron James (PG/SF – LAL): $10,100 @ Trail Blazers
The Lakers are in a great spot tonight against a weak defensive team in the Trail Blazers, and they are just a four-point favorite to boot. That gives us a heightened chance to see full minutes from LeBron and Anthony Davis, and their prices have recently taken pretty large dips. Both of them are in play, but I prefer LeBron as he has averaged 57 DraftKings points in games where he plays more than 30 minutes, while AD has just 52. There is a huge floor for LeBron with how many assists he has been racking up, and the Blazers just do not have anybody to guard him. You could also consider playing both of these guys, as they have a 45% share of the Lakers fantasy points on the year. They cost $19,700 together tonight which means you are wanting about 105 fantasy points from them. There have been 18 games this year where these two have played 60+ minutes collectively, and they have scored more than 100 fantasy points in 11 of those games, with totals as high as 144. And hey, talk about having the late hammer!

Bam Adebayo (C – MIA): $7,500 vs. Wizards
Big men have averaged a 5.96x return on their salary when playing the Wizards, so this is a dream spot for the Heat center tonight. Minutes are not a concern as Bam is averaging 33 minutes played this year and has a 1.15 fantasy point per minute rating. He has been very steady and his price is very appealing for this matchup. High minute centers bring such a strong floor to the table as rebounds are the most consistent stat night to night, Bam is a core piece for me.

Lauri Markkanen (PF/C – CHI): $5,900 vs. Warriors
Golden State has been bad defensively at every position this far, but it is really accentuated for big men, as they have averaged a 6.34x return on their salary when facing the Warriors. That is the biggest advantage spot of the night. Markkanen has had a really disappointing fantasy this year, with just a 0.93 fantasy point per minute rate and an inconsistent supply of minutes. There is some good news that he has played 32, 30, and 29 minutes in his last three games, averaging 30 DraftKings points in those games while taking eight three-pointers per game. I do not think he offers a massive ceiling at this price, but the matchup is just too good to ignore.

Moritz Wagner (PF/C – WAS): $5,000 @ Heat
Thomas Bryant is going to miss a few weeks at least, which leaves the Wizards pretty depleted in the frontcourt. The main beneficiary of that through a couple games has been Rui Hachimura, but his price has been creeping up because of it, while Wagner’s has actually come down. That is due to him missing the first game that Bryant missed, and him playing pretty poorly last night. He had just 22 DraftKings points in 26 minutes while committing four fouls. The foul trouble has been a consistent thing for him this year, but he offers a huge ceiling with a 1.19 fantasy point per minute rating on the year. I think there will be a few monster games from Wagner with Bryant out of the lineup, and now is a great time to roll the dice on him at just $5,000.

Cody Zeller (C – CHA): $4,100 vs. Nets
The minutes have disappeared since Zeller’s injury, as Biyombo has started the last two games at center for the Hornets and Zeller has played less than 20 minutes on average over the last four. The thing is that Biyombo has not played big minutes either, playing 22 minutes per game in those four games. I do not like speculation-based evidence for DFS recommendations, but here is some of that anyways. Zeller’s last four games have been against the Warriors, Suns, Bucks, and Heat. He was not 100% healthy for the Heat game, and the other three teams really do not have a prototypical center that plays big minutes. This may be the reason that the Hornets have played a lot of minutes with a smaller lineup. The Nets play close to 48 minutes of Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan, so a small lineup is not going to do too well tonight. I would guess that the Zeller/Biyombo combination easily plays 40+ minutes here, and if Zeller can even get half of the minutes, he should do very well at this tiny price tag. He is a 1.0 fantasy point per minute player on the year and the Nets are not a good defensive team.

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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.