We have a very nice nine-game slate on the board tonight with numerous studs available to choose from. There are a few spots that we can feel really good about, let’s get right into it.
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Guards
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $9,100 vs. Pacers
After two games in a row of failing to reach 40 DraftKings points, Trae’s price has plummeted. He was $10,500 just three games ago, so this is one of the quickest drops we have seen from a stud player this year. The poor performance in these last two games was mainly due to bad shooting (he went 11/33 in those two games), as he still dished out 22 assists. It is also possible that the DraftKings algorithm is considering the Pacers to be a bad matchup for Young, but really they have not been all that good against point guards – who have averaged a 5.6x return on their salary when facing Indiana. I cannot think of a good reason not to love Trae for $9,100 tonight.
Kawhi Leonard (SG/SF – LAC): $9,000 @ Timberwolves
This is an awesome spot for the Clippers against a fast-paced team in the Timberwolves that is also competitive in most games. As of right now the spread is just 5.5 points, which bodes well for Leonard playing 30+ minutes. The Wolves are also very exploitable with wing players, as they have given up an average of a 6.1x return on salary for shooting guards and small forwards this year. Leonard’s production has come down with Paul George in the lineup, but he is still averaging a strong 43 DraftKings points per game with a 32% usage rate since George has joined the rotation. I prefer Young at just $100 more, but Kawhi is a really solid option at a pretty thin shooting guard position.
We have a very nice nine-game slate on the board tonight with numerous studs available to choose from. There are a few spots that we can feel really good about, let’s get right into it.
Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings
Guards
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $9,100 vs. Pacers
After two games in a row of failing to reach 40 DraftKings points, Trae’s price has plummeted. He was $10,500 just three games ago, so this is one of the quickest drops we have seen from a stud player this year. The poor performance in these last two games was mainly due to bad shooting (he went 11/33 in those two games), as he still dished out 22 assists. It is also possible that the DraftKings algorithm is considering the Pacers to be a bad matchup for Young, but really they have not been all that good against point guards – who have averaged a 5.6x return on their salary when facing Indiana. I cannot think of a good reason not to love Trae for $9,100 tonight.
Kawhi Leonard (SG/SF – LAC): $9,000 @ Timberwolves
This is an awesome spot for the Clippers against a fast-paced team in the Timberwolves that is also competitive in most games. As of right now the spread is just 5.5 points, which bodes well for Leonard playing 30+ minutes. The Wolves are also very exploitable with wing players, as they have given up an average of a 6.1x return on salary for shooting guards and small forwards this year. Leonard’s production has come down with Paul George in the lineup, but he is still averaging a strong 43 DraftKings points per game with a 32% usage rate since George has joined the rotation. I prefer Young at just $100 more, but Kawhi is a really solid option at a pretty thin shooting guard position.
Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG – UTA): $8,100 vs. Warriors
Mitchell finally had the blowup game without Mike Conley on Wednesday, scoring 30 points and racking up 47 DraftKings points. That led to a price increase of $700, which takes away some of the ceiling here, but expecting a 50 in this matchup is far from ridiculous. He has taken 24, 17, 25, and 20 shots in the four games without Conley while playing over 33 minutes in every game. The Jazz are a 13 point favorite in this one, so there is some minutes risk, but it is also true that the Jazz just do not have a lot of guys to run out there, so I would expect another 30+ minute performance from Mitchell, and I think his price should be a little higher given the role without Conley. I expect a nice return here tonight.
Khris Middleton (SG/SF – MIL): $6,800 @ Grizzlies
Eric Bledsoe (PG – MIL): $6,700 @ Grizzlies
These two are only in play for me if Giannis sits out again here. The Bucks are on the front end of a back-to-back, so there is a good chance they take it easy with the reigning MVP in one of those games, and if it is tonight I think you have to have some Middleton/Bledsoe exposure. Middleton took 22 shots and scored 40 DraftKings points on Wednesday while Bledsoe took 13 shots with six assists in that game. When one of the best fantasy players in the game is out, that just leaves so many fantasy points on the table to be absorbed, so you really have to jump in on that. I prefer Middleton to Bledsoe if you are only picking one.
Tyus Jones (PG/SG – MEM): $3,700 vs. Bucks
Chalk play of the night here. The Grizzlies have already announced that Ja Morant will be sitting out of this game, which opens up a lot of minutes for Jones. In the three games without Morant thus far, Jones has averaged 24.5 fantasy points on a 16% usage rate. He has averaged 6.7 assists, 7.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in those games. It is pretty unlikely that Tyus does not give you 20+ DraftKings points tonight, so I would not recommend getting cute and fading him in cash games.
Forwards / Centers
Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $10,100 @ Heat
LeBron James (PG/SF – LAL): $10,000 @ Heat
In the last three games these two have combined for 109, 138, and 117 DraftKings points. They cost $20,100 tonight, so if you are paying for both of them you would be wanting a 110 point return (that is 5.5x value), which they have gotten to more often than not when they both play full minutes. The matchup is not the best, but the spread is tight (Lakers are a 5.5 favorite). In games where these two have combined for 60+ minutes, they have scored 109, 114, 117, 87, 103, 119, 115, 94, 117, and 121 DraftKings points. I do not really like the idea of guessing on just one of them tonight, but playing them together at these prices would have been very profitable to this point, so I think it is a super viable strategy.
Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $9,900 vs. Clippers
The one spot where the Clippers have given up some fantasy points is center, as big men have averaged a 5.5x return on their salary against them. Towns has been a bit up and down in terms of paying off a $10,000 price tag, and he has really only smashed this price tag twice in his last ten games, but the ceiling is always there for Towns and this could be one of the highest-scoring games of the night (it has a 233 over/under, which is high even for a Timberwolves game). There are tons of other options right in this price range, so I do not think much ownership will be on KAT, he is worth a shot.
Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $8,300 vs. Warriors
Centers have eviscerated the Warriors this year, averaging a 6.1x return on their salary. Gobert has been very solid since the first couple weeks of the season, grabbing 10+ rebounds in every game since October 28th. The ceiling might be harder to reach with the threat of a blowout, but the Jazz are not super prone to blowing teams out and Gobert has played under 30 minutes only three times this year, so I feel really good about Gobert in cash tonight.
T.J. Warren (SF/PF – IND): $5,000 @ Hawks
The price continues to come down on Warren, and this seems like the perfect matchup for him to excel. This is the second-lowest salary we have seen on him all year, and it is just too low for a guy averaging 14.5 shot attempts on the season. The Hawks give up an average 6x return on salary to wing players, and Warren has a huge ceiling in this game with how trigger happy he can be when his shots are falling. We do not have a ton of cheap options available to us right, but Warren is a guy I like a lot.
Terrence Ross (SG/SF – ORL): $4,300 vs. Rockets
A tournament special, Ross has averaged 11 shot attempts this year with a 24% usage rate, and he has played 26+ minutes in his last three games. The Rockets are a good matchup for shooters, as wing players have averaged a 5.7x return on their salary. Ross saw his price drop $700 after a bad 2/11 shooting performance on Wednesday, so this is a great time to jump on in tournaments and hope the shots fall tonight.
Thaddeus Young (SF/PF – CHI): $4,200 vs. Hornets
Thad played a season-high 33 minutes in the Bulls last game, which could be a positive sign for his minutes tonight. He is a 0.88 fantasy point per minute guy on the year, which gives him a really nice chance to pay off if he does see some extra minutes, but there is no doubt that it is a gamble. The Bulls have not been consistent with their minutes distributions, so an 18-minute performance from Young will not be surprising either. That makes this more of a tournament play for me.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.