Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 49.0
Line: SEA by 3.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: Remember when everyone blamed Cousins for the Vikings bad start to the season? Over the last seven games, he’s completed 73.3 percent of his passes for 9.1 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and one interception. He seriously deserves MVP consideration at this point (I’m still taking Wilson or Jackson). The Seahawks have been known to have a good pass defense under Pete Carroll, but is that the case this year? Despite playing what has been one of the easiest schedule in the league when it comes to quarterbacks, they’ve allowed a top-14 performance to 7-of-11 quarterbacks they’ve played this year. It hasn’t been due to a high touchdown total, though, as they’ve yet to allow a three-touchdown game and have allowed just three quarterbacks to throw for more than one touchdown. So how have they put up points on the Seahawks? Volume. There have been six quarterbacks who’ve thrown the ball at least 44 times against them this year. Cousins, the guy averaging just 29.1 pass attempts per game, is not getting there. His season-high is 38 attempts. So, when you see the Seahawks have allowed just a 2.97 percent touchdown-rate, that poses a problem. He played against a similar defense last year and completed 20-of-33 for 208 yards and one touchdown. The bye week may have come at the wrong time for the red-hot Cousins, who’s just a high-end QB2 here.

Russell Wilson: After starting out the year on fire, Wilson’s fantasy numbers have cooled off a bit. He’s now finished with 16.6 or less points in four of the last five games. The Seahawks are going to need him in this game, though. The Vikings run defense is legit and have allowed just 83.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, while allowing 262.4 passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Their secondary has been an issue, as Xavier Rhodes looks toast, and Trae Waynes hasn’t stepped-up. Because of that, we’ve seen four quarterbacks throw for 300-plus yards against them, something that happened just three times all of last year. In their matchup last year, Wilson really struggled, completing just 10-of-20 passes for 72 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. That game was in Seattle, too. The four quarterbacks who were able to have success and finish as top-15 options against the Vikings this year had one thing in common: They all threw at least 40 pass attempts. That’s a mark Wilson has hit just three times this season, so it doesn’t seem likely. He’s more efficient than most, so consider him a low-end QB1 this week, though it wouldn’t be shocking if he disappointed.

RBs
Dalvin Cook: There’s been just two games all season where Cook has failed to find the end zone. That’s crazy, right? After totaling at least 110 rushing yards in four of the first five games, Cook has hit that mark just once over his last six games, though he’s also been making up for it in the passing game. He’s seen at least six targets in each of the last four games, though you have to wonder if that gets cut back with Thielen back. The Seahawks have been somewhat of a mediocre run defense, though their numbers say they’re better than average, but much of that has to do with the minimal volume they’ve seen. Opponents have averaged just 23.7 running back touches per game with just 18.5 of them being carries. That’s obviously not ideal when Alexander Mattison gets about 27 percent of the carries. A big injury to stay tuned to is Jadeveon Clowney, as he was forced to miss last week’s tilt with the Eagles with a sports hernia-type injury. They also are likely to be without interior lineman Jarran Reed (ankle), who’s one of their pluggers up the middle. You’re playing Cook as an RB1, but it would definitely help if both Reed and Clowney missed the game for DFS purposes.

Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: There will be many wondering what is going to happen between these two, but my take is this… Carson had tons of fumbling problems earlier in the year, well before the trade deadline. The Seahawks were openly shopping Penny at the trade deadline, indicating they were more than okay with Carson handling the workhorse role (again, knowing his fumbling issues). Because of that, I don’t believe they’ll take the job away from Carson. Don’t forget that Penny fumbled during their Week 10 game against the 49ers. This felt like an in-game punishment to remind Carson he has to hang onto the ball. While Penny did look great on his 14 carries, he likely carved out a bigger role moving forward, though it’s not enough to start him confidently, especially against the Vikings, who have been a solid run defense all season. There have been just three running backs who’ve finished with more than 13.1 PPR points against them this year, the third-lowest mark in the NFL. To say there is going to be two fantasy relevant running backs from this backfield would be a mistake this week, as the Vikings haven’t allowed a team of running backs to combine for more than 138 total yards since way back in Week 2. We’ll learn a lot from the timeshare in this game, but Carson is the only one I’d trust in this brutal matchup, and even then, he’s just a middling RB2.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: For whatever reason, the Broncos decided to not shadow Diggs in their Week 11 matchup, and Diggs made them pay, catching all five of his targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. Heading into his bye week, Diggs had been the No. 3 receiver in fantasy football since the start of Week 4, behind only Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin. But now… Thielen is back. That’s not good for his fantasy floor in an offense that has very low volume. The Seahawks have faced plenty of volume this year, as receivers have averaged 23.0 targets per game against them, though quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts (the Vikings average less than 30). Diggs will see a mixture of both Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers in coverage, a cornerback duo that plays a lot of zone. We have seen 15 wide receivers finish with double-digit PPR points against them this year, but here’s a fun fact: No one has finished with more than 9.7 PPR points without seeing at least seven targets against the Seahawks. Diggs has hit that number in just 5-of-11 games this year. He’s one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, but this might be a week his owners have flashbacks of his early season struggles. He’s a low-end WR2 this week.

Adam Thielen: He’ll likely be back in the lineup this week, though we can’t forget how much his workload had been scaled back this year. He’s seen anywhere in-between 3-8 targets in the full games he’s played this year, though many remember good fantasy production due to his touchdowns. He scored touchdowns on 6-of-27 receptions and even had another touchdown on a rushing attempt. As stated in the Diggs notes above, the Seahawks haven’t allowed a receiver to finish with more than 9.7 PPR points without seeing at least seven targets against them. It’d be nice if the Vikings decided to move Thielen back to the slot where the Seahawks struggle most, but he’s run just 30 percent of his routes from there. He is coming off a multi-week soft tissue injury, which is always best to give it a week, but he’s had a lot of time and already tried to come back too soon. Update: There was reportedly a slight scare with his hamstring on Monday, which adds a major level of concern to his projection. If he plays, he’s going to be a risky WR3. *Update* Thielen said that he isn’t sure if he’ll play on Monday night, but that everything has gone to plan. If you plan on risking it with Thielen, it’d be wise to grab Olabisi Johnson off your waiver wire to have in case Thielen doesn’t play. 

Tyler Lockett: He played his full complement of snaps against the Eagles, so his leg appears to be good to go. We’ve now gone two straight games without a Lockett touchdown, something that hadn’t happened since Week 15-16 of last year. The Vikings have been a generous defense to opposing wide receivers this year, allowing a league-high 18 wide receivers hit 11.7 or more PPR points. Crazy, right? We’ve watched both Randall Cobb and Danny Amendola both post 100-yard games against them, though they both saw at least eight targets, a number Lockett has hit once over his last eight games. He’ll see Mackensie Alexander in the slot, who has arguably been the best cornerback for the Vikings this year. He’s allowed 18-of-26 passing for 204 yards and one touchdown, so it’s not as if he’s a shutdown cornerback, but rather a competent one. Lockett should be in lineups as a high-end WR2. *Update* Lockett was forced to miss practice on Friday with what’s being listed as illness/leg. He may not be 100 percent healed from his leg injury, so this is something to monitor. 

D.K. Metcalf: He’s now just eight targets behind Lockett on the year (78-70) and has out-targeted both him and Gordon 16 to 10 over the last two games. His high target share started before then, as he’s now seen 39 targets over his last five games (7.8 per game). When someone is getting volume like that from Wilson, you play him. His matchup is Xavier Rhodes this week, a veteran cornerback who has looked washed this season, allowing 47-of-55 passing for 525 yards and three touchdowns. That’s not a typo. He’s allowed an 85.5 percent catch-rate in his coverage. PFF has him graded No. 116 of the 123 cornerbacks. Knowing the Seahawks will likely have trouble running the ball, the targets should continue to be there for Metcalf. He should be in lineups as a WR3 with upside.

Josh Gordon: The Seahawks are still easing him in, as he played just 20 snaps in the Week 12 win over the Eagles, while David Moore played 17 and Malik Turner played 16. Knowing he’s had just four targets in his two games as a Seahawk, it’s impossible to play him with any confidence. When he is out there, he’ll match-up with Trae Waynes most of the time, which has netted 8.54 yards per target and a touchdown every 16.3 targets. It’s a plus-matchup, but he’s more of a tournament-hopeful in DFS at low ownership than someone you should consider in redraft leagues.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: Everyone in the passing game loses some sort of appeal with Thielen coming back, but none more than Rudolph. He’s someone who saw just 11 targets over the first six games with Thielen playing the full game. Since that time, he’s totaled 24 targets over the last five games that Thielen has missed either the whole game or a large portion of them. With the news of Thielen potentially having a setback, Rudolph deserves consideration. The Seahawks have been a team to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed seven different tight ends finish as the TE14 or better. They’ve allowed the third-most points to the position overall, though it has required some volume, as tight ends have averaged 9.0 targets per game against them, the third-highest mark in the league. If Thielen is out, Rudolph deserves high-end TE2 consideration, though we likely won’t know until Monday night. Because of that, Rudolph shouldn’t be relied upon, though make sure to check back for updates on this Saturday morning.

Jacob Hollister: For whatever reason, the Vikings opponents continue to attack them with tight ends. They’ve seen more tight end targets (108) than any other team this year but have allowed the fewest points per target (1.29 PPR points). The 5.91 yards per target is the second-lowest number in the league, while the 63.9 percent completion-rate is the third-lowest number, and their one touchdown allowed on 108 targets is the lowest in the NFL. And if you were to go through the list of tight ends they’ve played, all the big names are on there, so it’s not due to bad competition. Hollister shouldn’t be considered anything more than a middling TE2 here. It should also be noted that Hollister is no lock to play, as Pete Carroll said he had his foot rolled-up on during the Week 12 game that’s brought on some discomfort. *Update* Hollister is listed as questionable after getting in a limited practice on Friday. 

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.