The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 47.0
Line: LAR by 4.0

QBs
Jared Goff: It’s odd to hear everyone talk about Goff after his horrendous primetime performance and say things like, “He didn’t throw a touchdown in November!” Guys, his struggles have been going on a lot longer than that. Over his last 19 games, he’s thrown 18 touchdowns. You have to pick your spots with him, and Week 13 seems like one of them. The four teams he’s finished as a top-eight quarterback against have been the Saints (before they were healthy), Bucs, Falcons, and Bengals. The Cardinals fit right in with that group and may actually be the worst. They are allowing 2.7 more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than any other team in football, as the 24.94 points per game is a very high mark. We’ve seen 9-of-11 quarterbacks finish as the QB11 or better, with the two who didn’t being Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson (divisional game), who both were still able to put up 14.3-plus fantasy points. There have been six different quarterbacks who’ve thrown three or more touchdowns. Andy Dalton and Jones were the only two quarterbacks who averaged less than 7.4 yards per pass attempt, so it’s not just touchdowns. The Rams offense needs a confidence-builder and not only do the Cardinals opponents average a sky-high 67.7 plays per game, but their opponents choose to pass on 60.0 percent of plays while the Rams pass on 61.9 percent of plays. For as much as I’ve said to avoid Goff, he should be considered a low-end QB1 streamer this week.

Kyler Murray: It’s been a relatively successful rookie year for Murray, though he’s hit some bumps along the way. That includes fantasy football, too. He’s finished as a top-eight quarterback in four of his last six games but was the QB25 and QB26 in the other two games, highlighting his floor isn’t as high as some may think. But finishing as a top-eight quarterback against the 49ers not once, but twice? That’s something to build upon. They just watched a blueprint of what to do against the Rams defense, as Lamar Jackson diced them up while they were continually worried about him running the ball. Murray isn’t on Jackson’s level, but they can still do similar things with him. The Rams opponents have averaged a league-high 68.0 plays per game, so knowing that the Cardinals are the eighth pass-happiest team while throwing the ball 62.3 percent of the time, there should be plenty of opportunity for Murray. It’s important to note that while Jackson was able to rush for 95 yards, the Rams had been one of the better teams at slowing down mobile quarterbacks before then. Jackson was just the third quarterback to average more than 7.4 yards per attempt against the Rams, though competition has been mediocre for much of the year. Knowing the Rams offense is likely to put some points on the board, Murray should offer some upside in this game. He can be considered a low-end QB1 with a stable floor in this matchup. *Update* Murray was added to the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury. They say he’s likely to play, but it’s never a good thing to see anyone pop up on the injury report late in the week, especially a quarterback who relies on his mobility. His stable floor could be dissipating. 

RBs
Todd Gurley: The Rams want to give Gurley the lead-back role he’s had under McVay, though the lack of competence in the offense (Goff, in particular) has limited them from running the ball a whole lot. He’s received 37 touches over the last two games while Malcolm Brown has received just six touches. This is workhorse territory. This matchup against the Cardinals is the exact opposite of that against the Ravens. They allow tons of points (28.8) and plays (67.7) per game, which both rank in the bottom-three while the Ravens had allowed just 18.4 points and 58.3 plays, both in the bottom-five. The Cardinals have allowed just six rushing touchdowns on the year, which ranks as the 11th-fewest, but it’s only a matter of time before those begin, as they’ve allowed the 12th-most rushing yards. Even through the air – where Gurley has received all of the Rams running back touches over the last two weeks – the Cardinals have allowed a robust 7.23 yards per target and 1.86 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fifth-most. The Rams need a win and will rely on Gurley when it matters most. He should be played as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 this week.

Kenyan Drake: Some will wonder what’s going on with David Johnson, but I’ll be the first to tell you there’s no way you can trust him. There’s now been multiple games he’s been active and didn’t really play. Drake has played well since joining the team, totaling 212 yards on 41 carries (5.17 yards per carry) against the 49ers (twice) and Bucs. He’s also filled the void in the receiving game, totaling 16 receptions for 71 yards. Here’s a fun stat: Drake has broken 14 tackles on 57 touches with the Cardinals over three games. Johnson broke nine tackles on 113 touches this year. Drake is the running back to own here. The Rams are coming off a game where they allowed 100-plus rushing yards for just the third time all year, though it was ugly. They allowed the Ravens 193 yards and a touchdown on 37 carries, and that’s not even counting Lamar Jackson‘s 95 yards on the ground. Despite that performance, they’ve allowed just 3.76 yards per carry on the season. Targets haven’t done much against them, either, as the 0.74 PPR points per opportunity ranks as the seventh-lowest mark in the league. The good news is that their opponents average 67.4 plays per game, which should create enough opportunity to get Drake into the mid-to-high-end RB3 territory. The reason he’s not able to be put higher is due to the Cardinals expecting Chase Edmonds to return to the lineup, and it’s possible the time away gave Johnson a little more juice.

WRs
Cooper Kupp: It seems like so long ago that Kupp had his 220-yard game against the Bengals. Probably because it was four weeks ago. That was also the last time Kupp topped 53 yards receiving. If Goff wants to get back on track, he needs to do it through Kupp, as his deep ball accuracy has been horrible. It just so happens that the Cardinals are horrible at defending the slot. On the year, they’ve allowed 80-of-102 passing for 1,050 yards and 11 touchdowns in slot coverage alone. Keep in mind the Patriots have allowed 1,217 yards and one touchdown to wide receivers as a whole. We’ve watched both Tyler Boyd and Danny Amendola go ham on this defense, as they combined to rack up 17 receptions for 227 yards and two touchdowns. This game is likely to put Kupp back on the WR1 map. Start him anywhere you can.

Brandin Cooks: Some will wonder what happened to Cooks this year, but if you don’t already know the answer’s Jared Goff, you do now. His average depth of target is 14.3 yards down the field, easily the highest mark among the Rams receivers (Kupp 7.5, Woods 9.3). When you look and see Goff has completed just 12-of-41 attempts that have gone over 20 yards in the air with just one touchdown, Cooks is the one who suffers the most. If you go back to last year, Goff completed 29-of-65 deep balls for nine touchdowns. Cooks will see a mix of both Patrick Peterson and Byron Murphy in coverage, neither of which who’ve been very good this year. They’ve combined to allow a 66.7 percent completion-rate and nine touchdowns (one every 9.9 targets). This game is also going to be indoors on a track, which helps the speedy Cooks. Still, he’s relying on Goff to get him the ball, but this is a week I’d trust him as an upside WR3.

Robert Woods: He and Mike Williams are now neck-and-neck for most yards without a receiving touchdown, though Woods takes the cake with his 663 yards without a score. Regression to the mean will always kick in, and in a matchup like this, it could happen this week. The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 29 passing touchdowns on the year, and though just 12 have gone to wide receivers, the Rams may be without their starting tight end this week, and we know their offense is wide receiver-friendly anyway. Woods doesn’t rely on the deep targets as much as someone like Cooks does, which should allow him to be played with a safer floor than Cooks, though lower ceiling. The Cardinals have allowed 1.88 PPR points per target to receivers (8th-highest mark) and Woods has seen seven-plus targets in 7-of-10 games this year. Start him as a low-end WR2 who might get out of his touchdown slump.

Christian Kirk: When on the field, Kirk has received a 24 percent target share, which is obviously a massive number. Even better, he’s received a 30 percent share of the air yards. He hasn’t seen less than five targets in any game this year and has 10-plus targets in half of his games. The matchup with the Rams is going to be tough, though. Jalen Ramsey is almost certain to cover him, as Kirk’s been playing a lot of perimeter snaps lately. Over the last three weeks, he’s run just 14 percent of his routes from the slot, which is a far cry from his 81 percent over the first eight weeks of the season. Ramsey hasn’t been untouchable on the Rams, as he’s allowed 20-of-28 passing for 253 yards, though he hasn’t allowed any touchdowns in his coverage. It’s the toughest matchup among Cardinals receivers, but with Kirk’s target share, it’s tough to knock him down too far. Consider him a middling WR3 who could struggle if Ramsey brings his A game. If the Rams don’t shadow him, he’ll do some work against Troy Hill.

Larry Fitzgerald: After opening the season with back-to-back 100-yard games, Fitzgerald has finished with 71 or less yards in each of the last eight games, including six games below 50 yards. You kind of have to view him as a Cole Beasley-type receiver at this point where he’s got some floor-appeal in PPR formats but has to score a touchdown to get into that top-30 territory. The matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman this week isn’t an easy one, either. He’s been the bright spot on the Rams defense, allowing just a 57.8 percent catch-rate, 8.9 yards per reception, and one touchdown on 45 targets in coverage this year. The Cardinals do run a lot of 4WR sets which can get Fitzgerald out of his coverage at times, but that’s who he’ll see most of the time. The only slot-heavy receiver who had a truly great game against them was Chris Godwin back in Week 4, which happened to be the only game Robey-Coleman allowed a touchdown in his coverage. This game does project to have a lot of volume, so Fitzgerald should present a decent floor as a WR4 but shouldn’t be trusted as more than that.

Pharoh Cooper/KeeSean Johnson/Andy Isabella: It’s impossible to trust any of them right now, as the routes run in Week 11 was Cooper 13, Isabella 12, and Johnson 10. They’re rotating and it eliminates any chance to play them with confidence. They could shift some things around with the bye week, though we don’t know what those changes would be.

TEs
Gerald Everett: We must await word on Everett’s status, as he appeared to hurt his knee towards the end of the Ravens game. You want to see him return to practice in a full capacity, as the matchup on the calendar is one his owners have been waiting on for quite some time. Death, taxes, and fantasy points to tight ends against the Cardinals. Of the production the Cardinals have allowed to non-quarterbacks, tight ends have accounted for 24.6 percent of it, easily the most in the league. No other team has allowed more than 21.5 percent of that production to go to tight ends. They have allowed nine tight ends to finish as top-10 options against them, with two others finishing as top-18 options. The 2.43 PPR points per target ranks as the most in the NFL and it’s not even close, as the closest team is at 2.09 per target. If Everett practices and is active, he should be played as a TE1 this week. *Update* Everett has been ruled OUT for this game with a knee injury. That means Tyler Higbee could have some fantasy appeal this week against the team that’s incapable of covering tight ends. Consider him a high-end TE2 as we haven’t seen him in a highly-targeted role just yet. 

Charles Clay: We’re now 11 games through their season and no Cardinals tight end has seen more than three targets in a game. There’s no chance you’re contemplating any of them.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 51.5
Line: KC by 10.0

QBs
Derek Carr: There’s always been this fear with Carr, to fade him even when he’s playing well. It stems from the “Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between” series I do every year. Coming into this year, Carr had played 78 games. He was a bust in 43 of them, which are games that netted 13.9 or less fantasy points. While some would wonder if his early years did that, the answer is no. He busted in 19-of-31 games in 2017-2018. His lack of rushing crushes his fantasy floor when he doesn’t have it going through the air. Many claim the Chiefs are a matchup to attack with quarterbacks, but it hasn’t been as great of a matchup as some think. There have been just four quarterbacks who’ve averaged more than 6.79 yards per attempt against the Chiefs this year. That’s horrendous for a quarterback like Carr, who hasn’t topped 32 pass attempts since way back in Week 2, which happened to be against the Chiefs. In that game, he totaled just 198 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Keep in mind that game was at home, while this one is in Kansas City, a stadium that’s known to be a tough place to play. While at Arrowhead Stadium last year, Carr completed 24-of-33 passes for 185 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Chiefs did change their scheme this offseason, though it didn’t seem to help Carr back in Week 2. He’s nothing more than a low-end QB2 with a low floor.

Patrick Mahomes: There are many who are blaming Mahomes’ lack of elite play on his knee injury, but Mahomes himself has said his knee is good. Looking over his numbers over the last two years, the only thing that’s changed is his touchdown percentage, which is still elite. He’s turned the ball over a bit less, too.

That 5.9 percent touchdown-rate would rank 15th all-time, so it’s not as if it’s a bad number. This is what most analysts were talking about when they said Mahomes would regress. It doesn’t mean he’s bad; it just means he’s not an alien. He played the Raiders earlier this year when he threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns, which came without Tyreek Hill in the lineup. Their defense has lost some pieces since then, too. Knowing they’ve allowed six different quarterbacks to score at least 22.5 fantasy points, it’s not like you’re worried about the matchup for Mahomes. The only three quarterbacks who’ve failed to throw for at least two touchdowns against them were Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Finley. We just watched Sam Darnold and the Jets tally 315 yards and two touchdowns through the air with another touchdown on the ground. Oddly enough, there have been three games with more passing yardage. In fact, those three quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford) threw for 406-plus yards. The 26 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed rank as the second most in the NFL. The odd part with Mahomes is that he’s thrown 43 touchdowns on the road and just 26 touchdowns at home over the course of his career. He’s played the same number of games in both (13), so it’s not that. He’d need the Raiders to score some points in order to go bananas, but he’s still an elite QB1.

RBs
Josh Jacobs: He was the victim of a bad offense last week, as the Raiders had absolutely nothing going for him against a Jets team that’s much better against the run than most want to give credit. The splits that are clear with Jacobs are wins and losses. Here are his numbers in the two below:

The Raiders are nearly double-digit underdogs in this game, which is obviously not ideal for Jacobs. What is ideal is that the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL who’s allowed more PPR points to teams of running backs than teams of receivers. We saw the matchup between these two teams back in Week 2 where Jacobs was highly efficient rushing for 99 yards on just 12 carries, but he didn’t score, and he didn’t record a single catch. If the Raiders want to win this game, Jacobs will be heavily utilized. The Chiefs have allowed 99-plus rushing yards on six occasions and have even allowed two 100-yard receiving performances to two completely different running backs. It’s not often you see a team allow the most receiving yards (700) to running backs, as well as the second-most rushing yards (1,338). That’s an average of 185.3 total yards to running backs. Jacobs needs to be in lineups as a low-end RB1 but can be a victim of gamescript going south, as we’ve seen in the past. If they stick with him, he’ll go bananas.

Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy: It appears as if the Chiefs will have all of their running backs available for the Week 13 game with the Raiders, though you still want to monitor their practice participation (I’ll update here on Saturday). The matchup this week against the Raiders will be easier than the first time they played them back in Week 2 where the Chiefs running backs combined for just 32 yards on 21 carries. The Raiders were doing extremely well against the run up until about four weeks ago as the injuries have piled up. Over the last four games, they’ve allowed 393 yards and two touchdowns on 88 carries to the Lions, Chargers, Bengals, and Jets, four teams who’ve struggled to run the ball in 2019. We didn’t learn too much about the Chiefs timeshare in Week 11, as the injuries piled up rather quickly in that game, but not before McCoy fumbled the ball once again after carrying the ball like a loaf of bread. He wound-up recovering his fumble, but it’s something that definitely helps Williams’ stability. Running backs have averaged 26.9 touches per game against the Raiders, which is not very much for a timeshare situation, though we were seemingly headed in a direction where Williams was taking over as the clear-cut leader. If he practices in full, Williams should be the one trusted as a high-end RB3 with upside for more if they keep moving away from McCoy. If he’s limited, it cloudies the situation even more and gives a multitude of different outcomes. If Williams is out altogether, McCoy becomes a low-end RB2 and Darrel Williams becomes someone who can be played as an RB4. *Update* Williams has been ruled OUT for this game, leaving the backfield to McCoy and Darrel Williams. 

WRs
Tyrell Williams: We’re entering Week 13 and Williams has yet to have a game with more than seven targets with the Raiders. He’s also failed to record more than three receptions in six of his last seven games. You must wonder if that changes with the injury to Hunter Renfrow, who will be out for multiple weeks. Renfrow had received 23 targets over the last four games, so there’s a clear void to fill. The Chiefs perimeter cornerback duo of Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland have been rock-solid in coverage this year. They’ve combined to allow just 51-of-100 passing for 779 yards and three touchdowns. The slot has been the best area of the field to attack, but Williams has run just 28 percent of his routes from that area to this point. It’s a small sample size, but he did run 43 percent of routes from the slot in Week 12 with Renfrow leaving early. Williams saw seven targets the last time they played and turned them into five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. His fantasy floor should rise without Renfrow, but his lack of production is noteworthy. Consider him a low-end WR3 who could see an uptick in opportunity.

Zay Jones and Trevor Davis: It’ll be interesting to see who gets the opportunity in the slot for the Raiders with Hunter Renfrow on the shelf, as both Jones and Davis have run around 35-40 percent of their routes from the slot. The Raiders would be wise to mix-and-match their alignment with both of them, along with Tyrell Williams. The Chiefs have been tormented in the slot this year, which is why it’s so important, but it’s impossible to say anything concrete about the situation. Jones hasn’t seen more than four targets with the team, so you can’t trust him. Even with Renfrow’s injury, Davis played just nine snaps in Week 12, so you can’t play him either. We’ll revisit this receiver group next week.

Tyreek Hill: We don’t know too much about Hill right now, outside of the fact that the Chiefs seem to think he’ll play this week, though I wouldn’t be shocked if they played it safe with him against the Raiders. They’re a team with championship aspirations, so they have to think big-picture here. For now, we’ll assume he plays, but make sure to check back here on Saturday for updates. The Raiders struggled to defend the Chiefs passing attack without Hill back in Week 2, as the Chiefs receivers combined for 17/288/3, and that doesn’t even include a 60-plus yard touchdown from Hardman that was called back due to penalty. The big play has been an ongoing issue, as they’ve allowed a massive 15.63 yards per reception to receivers. If Hill plays, you put him in your lineup as a WR1, but you know the risks of playing someone coming off a hamstring injury.

Sammy Watkins: There might not be a more disappointing player in fantasy football this year than Watkins. Because he’s WR39 on the year? No, because he’s WR39 on the year with all the massive volume he’s received. He’d seen at least six targets in every full game he played prior to Week 11 when he saw just three of them. With the way he’s struggled to produce, they should be giving Hardman more looks. He saw 13 targets the last time they played the Raiders, though they net just six catches for 49 scoreless yards while every other Chiefs receiver went off. I still believe he benefits greatly from Hill on the field, as he’s no longer the focal point of the passing attack, therefore he’s not the focal point of the defense. The Raiders have Daryl Worley and Trayvon Mullen covering the perimeter with Nevin Lawson in the slot (as long as Lamarcus Joyner is out). Watkins has run 57 percent of his routes from the slot, so that should be big for him. Lawson is coming off a game where he allowed 4-of-5 passing for 49 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. Even if Joyner comes back, he hasn’t been good in coverage. Watkins has a great matchup, but will he take advantage? Knowing how mediocre he’s been, he should be considered a high-end WR4 who still plays with Mahomes.

Mecole Hardman: Raise your hand if you want to see Hardman get a bigger role in the offense. I’m right there with you. He’s seen 19 fewer targets than Hill, but has just as many touchdowns and just 93 fewer yards. Don’t even get me started on Watkins. I’m not saying Hardman is better than Hill, but I am saying that his emergence reminds me of Hill’s his rookie year. Here’s what I’m talking about:

Remember when everyone continued to say Hill’s ridiculous efficiency couldn’t keep up with that pace, including me? Well, it did. Hardman’s pace is even more ridiculous. You can’t start him with any confidence when Hill’s in the lineup, but Hardman is worth a stash on your bench, as his upside is worth a WR3 start if Hill sits.

TEs
Darren Waller: If there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that Hunter Renfrow‘s absence increased the target floor for Waller. We’ve watched his targets scaled back a bit the more Renfrow got involved, so it would appear we should see Waller get back to his 8-14 target area he was at most of the time in Weeks 1-8. Teams have gravitated towards their tight ends against the Chiefs, as they’ve racked up a league-leading 72 receptions against them, which amounts to 6.5 per game. Waller himself totaled 6/63/0 the first time they played on seven targets. It’s odd to see teams attack tight ends so much against them, as the production on a per-play basis hasn’t been very kind, as the 6.22 yards per target is the third-lowest mark in the league. They’ve also allowed just three touchdowns on 107 targets, which is obviously not great. Waller’s volume will be there, making him a solid TE1 play, but the efficiency has been rather weak against the Chiefs.

Travis Kelce: The touchdown numbers have started to catch up as of late, as he’s now scored in three of his last four games. His yardage isn’t quite on pace to what it was last year, but you can’t scoff at his 1,200-yard pace. The Raiders have been a great matchup for tight ends, and Kelce took full advantage back in Week 2 when he tagged them for 7/107/1 on nine targets. They’ve now allowed a touchdown every 10.8 targets to tight ends, which ranks as the second most often behind only the Cardinals. Not only did Kelce finish as the TE2 against them, but so did Darren Fells, and we also saw Jimmy Graham finish as the TE4. With Tyreek Hill maybe not being at 100 percent, Kelce should be more of a focal point this week. In three games against Paul Guenther’s defense, he’s seen 31 targets and turned them into 24 receptions, 337 yards, and three touchdowns. You’re starting him as an elite TE1.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Total: 38.0
Line: LAC by 2.5

QBs
Philip Rivers: After all his interceptions as of late, he’s now just one away from equaling his touchdown output this year. Some are wondering if Rivers has hit “the wall” and it’s hard to argue with them, as he’s thrown just eight touchdowns over his last seven games while throwing 12 interceptions. He’s going to be 38 years old next month, so it’s definitely possible. The Broncos are the team that started his cold streak, as he threw for just 211 yards and no touchdowns in their Week 5 meeting, and that was while he was at home. They’ve allowed five passing touchdowns over the last two weeks, which is very uncharacteristic of them, as they allowed just six passing touchdowns over the first nine games. They ran into a red-hot Kirk Cousins in Week 11 where they decided not to shadow Stefon Diggs (dumb). They then ran into the red-hot Josh Allen in Week 12, who completed just 15-of-25 passes for 185 yards, though he did throw a couple touchdowns. Unfortunately, Rivers is not red-hot. He’s the opposite. The worst part of this game is the low play volume between the two teams. There have been just four quarterbacks who’ve thrown the ball more than 29 times against the Broncos. These two teams rank in the bottom-four in total plays per game. You cannot trust Rivers in decent matchups right now, let alone one like this.

Brandon Allen: He’s completed 46.2 percent of his passes for just 6.1 yards per attempt and has thrown three touchdowns in his three starts. He’s now playing against the No. 7 defense against fantasy quarterbacks, who may be getting one of their best players back (Derwin James)? Nah. *Update* It seems that Drew Lock is likely to get the start at quarterback this week. It doesn’t make a difference, as you aren’t starting him, though it could be an upgrade for the pass-catchers. 

RBs
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: The firing of Ken Whisenhunt was supposed to fix the run-game, and it did, until it didn’t. They abandoned the run far too early against the Chiefs, as the running backs totaled 93 yards on just 19 carries (4.89 yards per carry). Instead of continuing with them, they decided to let Rivers throw 52 attempts that resulted in four interceptions. When targeting Ekeler, Rivers has averaged 9.0 yards per attempt. When targeting Keenan Allen, he’s averaging just 7.6 yards per attempt. Gordon and Ekeler need to be featured in this matchup against the Broncos. The issue with loving someone too much in this matchup is due to the fact that the Broncos have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game to the combination of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. There’s a reason this game has the lowest total on the entire slate. Both teams rank bottom-four in total plays per game. But still, the Broncos have seen 30.0 running back touches per game, as teams run the ball on 44.8 percent of plays against them, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league. Gordon totaled just 31 yards on 12 carries in their first matchup while Ekeler racked up 15 receptions for 86 yards. It’s not likely to be a high efficiency game from either team, but knowing Gordon will be trusted on the goal-line, he remains in the middling RB2 conversation. Ekeler ranks as the No. 1 running back in yards per route run and it’s not even close, as his 2.61 yards is over half of a yard more than any other running back. As much as it pains us, Rivers needs to check-down more often. The Broncos haven’t allowed more than 34 receiving yards to any running back outside of Ekeler, so we shouldn’t be expecting a repeat of his Week 5 performance against them. Ekeler should still be considered a high-end RB3 because of what he means to the offense, but it’s not a great matchup.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: Over the last two weeks, Lindsay has totaled 32 touches while Freeman has totaled just 13. It’s turned into a 70/30 timeshare of a low-scoring offense, meaning Lindsay is the only one worth considering. Of the fantasy points that the Chargers allow to non-quarterbacks, running backs account for 41.7 percent of that production, which ranks as the second-most only to the Chiefs. The Chargers opponents have averaged just 57.7 plays per game, which is an NFL-low, yet they’ve still somehow allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game (27.3) to running backs. They’ve now allowed nine running backs to finish as top-15 options against them. In fact, the only running back who totaled more than 13 carries and didn’t finish with at least 15 PPR points was Benny Snell. The other six running backs who topped 13 carries all finished as the RB8 or better. Lindsay was one of them back in Week 5 when he totaled 114 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. The Chargers are likely to get safety Derwin James back into the lineup this week, which should help them take a step in the right direction, but Lindsay tagged this defense for 11/79/2 on the ground last year with James in the lineup. You should be willing to play him as a middling RB2 with upside. Freeman is not playable right now, as they’re giving Lindsay most of the early-down work and Allen hasn’t been targeting running backs (the duo has combined for nine targets in three games). He’s nothing more than an emergency RB4 until he starts getting more work but does remain a high-end handcuff.

WRs
Keenan Allen: He’s now seen double-digit targets in four of the last five games. Despite being inefficient when targeting him, Rivers continues to push the issue. It may not be a good thing this week, either, as Chris Harris Jr. held him to just four catches for 18 yards the last time they played. Did you know that Rivers has been intercepted seven times while targeting Allen this year? That’s the most in the NFL. The Broncos didn’t use Chris Harris Jr. to shadow Stefon Diggs in Week 11, allowing him to catch all five of his targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. They did have him follow John Brown last week, and though he had a late touchdown, Brown was held to less than 50 yards for the first time all season. Allen has matched-up with Harris and the Broncos quite a bit being in the same division. The last five meetings between the teams have netted Allen just 25/247/2. That’s less than 50 yards per game. When you combine that with Rivers’ and Allen’s struggles lately, he’s just a low-end WR2 this week.

Mike Williams: He hasn’t topped three receptions in each of the last four games, and he hasn’t seen more than six targets in each of the last five games. He’s averaging just 4.0 targets per game since the firing of Ken Whisenhunt. His average depth of target is a massive 17.3 yards down the field, so it only takes a few receptions to be relevant. There’s no other receiver with at least 25 targets whose average depth of target is higher than 16.4 yards. The Broncos have allowed just 28 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. That’s an issue for Williams, as the deep ball has accounted for 45.1 percent of his yards this year. All in all, there have been just eight wide receivers who’ve finished with 12-plus PPR points, which is what’s typically required to finish as a top-36 wide receiver. Six of them required touchdowns to get there, something Williams has still yet to do. Oddly enough, Williams was one of the receivers who did score 12-plus points, though it took him 13 targets to bring in six passes for 74 yards. The good news is that if Chris Harris Jr. is following around Allen, like we expect, Williams would get the struggling Davontae Harris, who’s allowed a touchdown in three straight games while allowing 19-of-26 passing for 172 yards. Williams is on the low-end WR3 radar as someone who’s overdue for a receiving touchdown, and Harris is the one who can give it to him.

Courtland Sutton: Week 12 was just the second time all year where Sutton finished a game with less than 72 yards and/or a touchdown. He saw eight targets from the inaccurate Brandon Allen but was only able to haul in one of them for 27 yards. That’s not a great confidence booster heading into the matchup with the Chargers intense pass defense this week. They have allowed the third-fewest points per game to the wide receiver position and may be getting star safety Derwin James back from injury as well. There have been just five wide receivers all year who’ve finished with 13-plus PPR points against the Chargers, though there is a caveat. There have been just 10 receivers who’ve seen seven-plus targets and here are their results:

As you can see, there should be a decent floor here for the receiver who’s seen at least seven targets in 10-of-11 games. His ceiling is still limited considering the lack of competence out of Allen, leaving him in high-end WR3 territory.

TEs
Hunter Henry: He continues to get massive opportunity in the offense, as he’s seen 26 targets over the last three weeks. He’s been efficient and hasn’t finished a game this year with less than four receptions. We all know he’s a required start in season-long leagues, but how about DFS? The Broncos have played against five tight ends who’ve totaled at least five targets, and the only one who didn’t finish with double-digit PPR points was Delanie Walker who turned six targets into three receptions for 43 yards. The combination of Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson is one of the better coverage units in football, though it’s not a must-avoid matchup, as the production on a per-target basis has been rather average. They have allowed just three touchdowns on 82 targets, so when you combine that with the fact that Rivers has thrown just eight touchdowns over his last seven games, and he’s not a must-play in DFS.

Noah Fant: The Broncos are desperately trying to get Fant more involved in the offense and it’s happening because Allen hasn’t been targeting running backs very much. That’s led to 19 targets in three weeks for Fant. He’s totaled 10 catches for 189 yards and one touchdown on them, which is plenty of production for a streamer. The matchup against the Chargers hasn’t been a favorable one, as they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest points to the position. The lack of volume has been an issue, though, as they’ve faced just 5.7 targets per game. They’ve also allowed just a 65.1 percent completion-rate to them, but when they do allow a catch, it’s been big. The 12.24 yards per reception they’ve allowed ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league. One issue standing in the way is the return of Derwin James, the starting safety who’s been out all year. With him on the field last year, the Chargers allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to tight ends. If he returns, it surely doesn’t help Fant’s outlook. His target share keeps him in the high-end TE2 conversation, but he’s not a smash play.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Total: 44.5
Line: NE by 3.0

QBs
Tom Brady: He’s now gone six straight games without throwing more than two touchdowns and has thrown 0-1 touchdowns in five of those games. That’s not great for a quarterback who offers nothing on the ground. It’s not due to a lack of attempts, as he’s averaged 42.0 attempts per game. Will a matchup with the injury-riddled Texans help him get back on track? They’ve allowed 8-of-11 quarterbacks to score at least 18.1 fantasy points against them while finishing as top-15 options. The quarterbacks who haven’t include Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and Kyle Allen, three quarterbacks who were not supposed to be starters in 2019. There’ve been five quarterbacks who’ve thrown three-plus touchdowns, which is what’s important for Brady to get into that QB1 territory. The Texans average pressure rate is just 27.6 percent, which is the third-worst mark in the NFL, and that’s while having J.J. Watt for most of the season. When Brady is kept clean, he carves up defenses with a 103.4 QB Rating. When under pressure, he struggles, as his 48.3 QB Rating is the third worst in the NFL. If Brady can’t get into the top-15 in this matchup, it’s not good. He should be expected to post low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers.

Deshaun Watson: It’s been a bumpy road for Watson this year, as he’s finished as a top-four quarterback on five occasions, but he’s also finished outside the top-16 quarterbacks on four occasions. Getting Fuller back was massive for him, as Watson’s career splits highlight just how much he means to the offense. The issue that stands in the way? The Patriots defense. Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have combined to score just 54.6 PPR points per game against the Patriots. That’s ridiculous. Belichick has always said that he’ll take away what his opponent does best. Well, that’s not good for Watson. We’re at the point where 250 yards and one touchdown through the air against the Patriots would be considered a good game. No quarterback has topped 7.09 yards per attempt, which has led to just one quarterback throwing for more than 214 yards against them, and that was way back in Week 1. They’ve allowed a grand total of four passing touchdowns through 11 games while racking up 20 interceptions. It’s all red against them, as the yards per attempt (5.40), touchdown-rate (1.08 percent), and completion-rate (53.9 percent) are all the best in the NFL. On 369 pass attempts, the Patriots defense has allowed 75.7 fantasy points through the air. Gross. Watson played against the Patriots last year and finished as the QB22 that week. If he finishes as a top-12 quarterback, you should consider that a massive achievement. He’s more of a middling QB2 this week, though his floor is higher than most in that area due to his mobility.

RBs
Sony Michel and James White: Getting Isaiah Wynn back on the offensive line proved to be a good thing against the Cowboys last week, as Michel totaled 85 yards on the ground, his highest total since back in Week 6. Many believe the Texans are a good run defense but that’s not really true anymore. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They’ve faced 27.0 touches per game, which ranks as just the 17th-most in the NFL, which highlights just how much efficiency running backs have had. The 0.95 PPR points per opportunity is the fifth-highest mark in the league, so if you’re getting carries and/or targets, you’re likely producing. The three games Michel hasn’t gotten at least 15 carries were against the Jets, Ravens, and Eagles, all teams who are phenomenal run defenses. We watched Jonathan Williams practically come out of nowhere and rush for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Texans last week. It’s not all great for Michel, though. There have been just eight teams who’ve allowed more points through the air to running backs than on the ground. The Texans are far ahead of every other team, as opponents have totaled just 120.3 fantasy points on the ground (8th-fewest) but have scored a league-high 172.3 fantasy points through the air. They’ve only allowed four rushing touchdowns, though losing Watt up the middle recently definitely hurts. Michel should be in lineups as a mid-to-high-end RB3, while White should bounce back to his usual low-end RB2 self in a matchup that’s designed for him.

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: It’s known that Bill Belichick will try to take away his opponent’s strength, which, for the Texans, is clearly throwing the ball. Because of that, Hyde should have high efficiency in this matchup. It’s why we’ve seen five different running backs rush for at least 70 yards, including three for 100-plus yards, as they aren’t as concerned with their opponent’s ground-game. They’ve allowed a forgiving 4.31 yards per carry, but have toughened up where it matters most, as they’ve allowed just one rushing touchdown all year. Hyde has massive gamescript concerns, as the Patriots have outscored their opponents 300-117. This is an issue because he’s caught just six passes all year, including just one in the last seven games. He needs the game to remain close to have a big role, something teams have struggled to do with the Patriots. Because of that, he’s a middling RB3 who would benefit if the Patriots offense continues to struggle. Johnson is impossible to trust, as the Texans have limited him to a role that has him netting 3-7 carries and 1-5 targets. Sure, this gamescript could fit his role a bit more, but knowing the Patriots have allowed just one touchdown to running backs, you’re relying on yardage. The Patriots have allowed just 0.64 PPR points per opportunity, so knowing Johnson is capped around 12 opportunities, he’s nothing more than a middling RB4.

WRs
Julian Edelman: He’s destroying in PPR formats, as he’s now racked up at least seven catches in seven of his last nine games. He’s seen at least 10 targets in six straight games, giving him the floor you wanted when you drafted him. The Texans have had massive coverage issues in the slot on top of their injury issues, and it’s amounted to 69-of-93 passing for 915 yards and eight touchdowns in slot coverage. There have been four receivers who’ve totaled double-digit targets against the Texans, and every one of them finished with at least 19.4 PPR points. Even with Brady struggling, Edelman has finished as a top-17 PPR receiver in each of the last four weeks. He’s a WR1 in this matchup and worthy of playing in both cash and tournament lineups.

Phillip Dorsett: He was close to clearing the concussion protocol last week, so we should assume he’ll play this week, but you have to make sure to check back here on Saturday for updates. With the lack of pass rush from the Texans, we should be able to see Brady take a few shots down the field to Dorsett. As a team, they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to all skill-position players, and we know the Patriots’ production flows through their receivers, as they don’t have a tight end who steals production. Dorsett lines up at LWR 70 percent of the time, which means he’ll see Gareon Conley most of the time, a cornerback who has played well since joining the Texans, as he’s allowed 8-of-21 passing for 123 yards and two touchdowns. While the two touchdowns are nice, they can be a bit fluky. Everything else Conley has done looks good. Dorsett should be considered a mediocre WR4/5-type option who’s failed to top 53 yards since way back in Week 1. His floor/ceiling would go up a bit if Sanu is forced to miss another game.

N’Keal Harry/Mohamed Sanu: Check back in on Saturday for updates, as we don’t know much about Sanu’s status right now. *Update* We haven’t learned much about anything with the Patriots wide receiver group this week, as every one of them is listed as questionable after getting in limited practices all week long. It’s probably best to avoid Sanu, even if he plays, as he’s likely going to share snaps with Harry. There’s just too much risk with a player who might not play at all in a prime-time game. 

Deandre Hopkins: This is going to be a tough one for Hopkins, no doubt about it. He’s played against Bill Belichick five times in his NFL career. He’s totaled at least 52 yards in every game, but he’s also yet to record more than 78 yards or a touchdown. Stephon Gilmore will be following him around, the cornerback who’s allowed a 37.4 QB Rating in his coverage this year. If you spike the ball into the ground, you get a 39.6 QB Rating. He’s allowed just 5.45 yards per target in his coverage and has four interceptions while allowing no touchdowns. The Patriots as a whole have allowed just one wide receiver to finish better than the WR20, and that was Golden Tate who recorded 64 yards after the catch on his way to a touchdown. Hopkins is not a yards after the catch guy. This game is indoors, which benefits a route runner like Hopkins, and you cannot bench him, because he’s just as talented as Gilmore. We must lower expectations into WR2 territory and avoid him in DFS cash games, though.

Will Fuller: It was good to see Fuller out there in Week 12 tearing up the Colts secondary, though it was notable that he reached back to his hamstring multiple times throughout the game, so we hope everything is okay. With Stephon Gilmore traveling with Hopkins, Fuller will see Jason McCourty in coverage. He’s been dominant in his own right and has plenty of speed to hang with Fuller, as he’s a 4.3 guy. He’s allowed just a 56 percent catch-rate and 9.1 yards per reception on the season, which doesn’t bode well for Fuller. As mentioned in the Hopkins paragraph, they’ve allowed just one receiver to finish better than the WR20. Going a bit deeper, they’ve allowed just six wide receivers to finish as top-40 options. Fuller offers one-play potential, which is why you almost always want to start him as a WR3, but this matchup bumps him down to low-end WR3/high-end WR4 territory who comes with bust potential.

Kenny Stills: He hasn’t been a big part of the offense as of late, and that’s despite Keke Coutee being inactive most of the time. He hasn’t topped four receptions all year and hasn’t topped 52 yards since back in Week 7. Going against the Patriots, who will have Jonathan Jones covering the slot, you are not considering him as a logical option.

TEs
Ben Watson: He’s seen 4-5 targets in three of his games with the Patriots, but then just one target in the other two games. It’s frustrating when that happens with a tight end on a team you’re expecting to score a lot of points. There have been just four top-12 tight ends against the Texans, but their names are Mark Andrews, Eric Ebron, Austin Hooper, and Travis Kelce. None of them had a massive game, and Hooper was the only one who recorded more than four receptions. Despite their tough schedule, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points per target (1.55) to tight ends. Watson is not a recommended streamer for those who are looking for any sort of floor.

Darren Fells and Jordan Akins: The touchdowns have stopped for Fells the last two weeks and anyone who trusted him based on those are feeling it. He’s caught just one pass in each of the last three games, and knowing that Fuller is back in the offense, targets will be even harder to come by. Akins hasn’t topped 39 yards in 10-of-11 games this year, but is running close to the same number of routes as Fells. So, it’s essentially a 50/50 timeshare against the Patriots, a team that’s allowed just four passing touchdowns all year, and that’s not just to tight ends. It is, however, the one position they aren’t the best in the league against. The 1.68 PPR points per target is just slightly below the league average. Knowing that 75 percent of the touchdowns they have allowed have gone to touchdowns, Fells makes sense in a DFS showdown slate. Both of these guys are not preferred options in redraft.