Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

Total: 46.5
Line: GB by 6.0

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: We’ve talked about it for weeks, but the bad fantasy season for Rodgers continued in Week 12. He’s now finished as the QB20 or worse on six different occasions while finishing better than the QB12 on just three occasions. It’s clear that the offense isn’t tailored to promote a lot of production through the air, and even if it were, he doesn’t appear to have any chemistry with his receivers. Rodgers constantly holds onto the ball too long and waits for his receivers to get open, though they seldomly do. Against the Giants, they shouldn’t have an issue. They’re a team that’s allowed 7.34 or more yards per attempt to 8-of-11 quarterbacks with the only exceptions being Dwayne Haskins, Kyler Murray, and Mitch Trubisky, three quarterbacks who rarely hit that mark. Those are also the only three quarterbacks who failed to generate at least two touchdowns against them. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott (twice), Jameis Winston, and Matthew Stafford all threw for at least three touchdowns. Knowing there have been four quarterbacks who’ve averaged over 10.2 yards per attempt, it highlights just how high the ceiling is in this matchup. The issue is that Rodgers just lost his starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga to a sprained MCL. The good news here is that the Giants have the fourth-worst pressure-rate in football. This feels like it could be one of those weeks where Rodgers turns back into the QB1 everyone thought he’d be when they drafted him.

Daniel Jones: The best way to describe Jones’ season is that of a rookie. He’s had his ups and downs, though they’ve been somewhat predictable in the matchups he’s had. He’s also dealt with a variety of injuries to his pass-catchers but is starting to get them back into the lineup. Did you know there’s yet to be a game with Barkley, Shepard, Tate, and Engram on the field? It feels as though the Packers have continually struggled with their identity as a defense. They’ve struggled mightily against the run at times, then keyed in on stopping it, only to surrender massive production through the air. Since the first three weeks where they held Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco to just one touchdown pass, they’ve allowed 170-of-258 passing (65.9 percent) for 2,302 yards (8.92 yards per attempt) with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions over their last eight games. They have yet to allow a quarterback rush for more than 27 yards, so there’s not a clear weakness there. Knowing the Giants defense will surrender points to the Packers offense, Jones will be put in a lot of passing situations. Because of that, he can be started as a middling QB2 with some upside, though his floor isn’t as high as most streamers would like considering the Packers have allowed just 9.8 fantasy points on the ground all year, the second lowest mark in the league.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: We’re back to Matt LaFleur not seeing clearly, as Jones fell behind Williams in touches, 18 to 13 in their Week 12 blowout loss to the 49ers. Why they continually avoid giving Jones workhorse touches is beyond me. He’s now failed to carry the ball more than 13 times in any game since back in Week 5 against the Cowboys when he rushed for four touchdowns. He was seeing a rock-solid target-share in Weeks 2 through 8 (5.9 targets per game), but he’s now seen just four targets over the last three games. The Giants have been a hit-or-miss defense against the run, allowing 58 rush yards or less in four of their last eight games, but allowing 108 or more rushing yards in six of their last 10 games. There have been five running backs who’ve totaled more than 13.5 PPR points against the Giants, but each of them totaled at least 18 carries, a number that Jones hasn’t seen in a long time. The bottom line here is that if Jones gets the carries, he’ll produce. If he doesn’t, well, he’s going to need an increase in targets. There’s been just three running backs who’ve totaled more than four receptions against the Giants this year, as checkdowns are not very necessary. Would it shock me if Jones gets 15 carries and scores three touchdowns? Nope. Would it shock me if Jones gets 12 carries and nets less than 60 total yards? Not really, though I wouldn’t expect it. He’s a low-end RB1 who is trapped in touch-hell with LaFleur and Williams. He does make for a great tournament play, though, as DFS players search for big touches, and he doesn’t check that box on a regular basis. As for Williams, he was someone who was seeing just 7-13 touches per game but was then thrust into 18 touches against the 49ers. Was it due to the game getting out of control early? Possibly. The Packers seem to favor him in situations they’re trailing. That shouldn’t be the case here, though there should be enough touches to go around for him to finish in RB3 territory, as there’ve been 13 running backs who’ve accomplished that in 11 games against the Giants.

Saquon Barkley: The nightmare season continued for Barkley last week, as he totaled under 75 rushing yards for the sixth straight game. Over that span, he’s scored just one touchdown and has him sitting as the RB12 on a points per game basis this season. Week 12 was the first game all year he’s seen less than five targets, so we won’t take it as a given moving forward. The Packers have been among the best teams to attack with running backs, as they’ve allowed the third most fantasy points to them this season. It’s been a mix of everything, as they’ve averaged a rock-solid 28.5 touches per game, 5.0 yards per carry, a rushing touchdown every 19.3 carries, and 0.95 PPR points per opportunity. Each of those numbers ranks in the bottom-five in the NFL. We’ve watched three different running backs score multiple touchdowns against them (Jordan Howard, Phillip Lindsay, and Melvin Gordon), and three totally separate running backs total 108-plus yards on the ground. If there’s a matchup for Barkley to come out of his funk, this is it. Start him as a rock-solid RB1 who has both cash and tournament appeal in DFS.

WRs
Davante Adams: In a night that was a complete waste for 99 percent of Packers skill-position players, Adams scored his first touchdown of the year. He netted just 43 yards on 12 targets, so it wasn’t a complete success, but that should change this week. The Giants are a team to attack with all wide receivers, especially ones as talented as Adams. There have been just three receivers who’ve totaled double-digit targets against them this year. Those receivers were Mike Evans (8/190/3), Allen Robinson (6/131/1), and Julian Edelman (9/113/0). Each of them totaled at least 20 PPR points. It hasn’t even required double-digit targets, as there’ve been seven different receivers who’ve totaled at least 100 yards against them, and another five who’ve totaled at least 80 yards. Adams is an elite WR1 who has the ability to break the slate in this game.

Allen Lazard: The good news is that he’s acting as the No. 2 receiver in the Packers offense. The bad news is that it led to just one catch for seven yards against the 49ers last week. If there’s a time for Lazard to earn some fantasy trust, it’s in this game against the Giants. They’ve now allowed 17 wide receivers to post 11.3 or more PPR points against them, which is typically enough to get into top-40 territory. Lazard will see the most of rookie DeAndre Baker in coverage, a cornerback who has continually struggled. He’s allowed a massive 11.9 yards per target in his coverage with a touchdown every 8.8 targets. Will the Packers receivers move around? Sure. Do we expect Adams to get most of the production? Absolutely. But that still doesn’t mean we can’t get production out of another Packers receiver. He’s nothing more than a WR4/5 after seeing just two targets last week, but he presents top-30 upside in this game.

Geronimo Allison: We’re nearly 75 percent done with the NFL season and Allison has still yet to top 52 yards in a game. He’s totaled 21 yards or less in each of the last four games, as he’s becoming an afterthought in fantasy football. The crazy part is that he’s playing a full-time role and is on the field more than anyone not named Davante Adams. The Giants have really struggled to defend the slot this year, as they’ve allowed 70-of-89 passing for 868 yards and five touchdowns in slot coverage. The Packers move others into the slot, so he’s not the only one who’ll get opportunities, but it’s where he lines up most of the time. It’s difficult to get excited about someone who’s failed to see more than four targets since back in Week 7, but if there were a week for Allison to make an appearance, it’d be here. He’s a WR5 who’s better than most in that area.

Golden Tate: If relying on Tate, you should know that he’s in the concussion protocol and needs to get cleared to play. I’ll update his notes here on Saturday, so make sure to check back then. In the two games with Shepard in the lineup, Tate has averaged 6.5 targets per game. In the five games without Shepard, Tate has averaged 8.8 targets per game. The Packers have not been a good matchup for slot-heavy receivers this year, as Tramon Williams has done a phenomenal job. He’s seen just 22 targets in the slot and has allowed 12 receptions for 185 yards and one touchdown on them. The 0.78 yards per covered slot snap ranks as the 15th lowest number among the 60 cornerbacks/safeties who qualified. The biggest game they’ve allowed to a slot-heavy receiver was Sammy Watkins‘ 5/45/0 on eight targets in Week 8. There are better matchups on the field for the Giants to target, though his target share and ability to run after the catch keep him in the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 territory, provided he gets cleared. *Update* He’s been ruled OUT for this game with his concussion. 

Sterling Shepard: Not many realize just how many targets Shepard has seen in this offense when on the field. He’s now totaled at least five catches in each of his five games and has seen nine targets in each of his last four games. It was a brutal matchup against the Bears last week, so seeing him wind-up with just five catches for 15 yards isn’t too shocking. The Packers have allowed just the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, though it’s not due to elite play or anything. Receivers have averaged just 16.4 targets per game against them, which ranks as the second-fewest in the NFL. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 2.01 PPR points, which ranks as the fifth-most in the NFL. There have been 12 wide receivers who’ve totaled at least seven targets against them (the number Shepard has hit every game), and we’ve watched 11 of them finish with at least 11.0 PPR points. Shepard’s matchup on the perimeter is better than Tate’s in the slot this week, though we’ve still yet to see Shepard score on the perimeter in his career. He belongs in the high-end WR4 conversation for this game as someone who should present a solid floor with the implied score suggesting more passing for the Giants this week. *Update* With Tate and Engram out of the lineup, Shepard’s appeal has grown and should now be considered a middling WR3 who should present a solid floor. 

Darius Slayton: His role in the offense will be extremely dependent on the presence of Evan Engram, as that would push Slayton down to the fourth or fifth option in the passing game. He’s going to see a lot of Kevin King in this game, a third-year cornerback who has been extremely hit-or-miss in coverage over the start of his career. When get gets beat, it’s been deep this year, as he’s allowed a massive 18.0 yards per reception. Slayton is the deep threat on the team, averaging 13.8 air yards per target while Tate is at 8.1 yards and Shepard is at 9.3 yards. Slayton has seen 21 targets over the last two games, so we can’t overlook him, but again, pay attention to Engram’s status. The Packers have faced an average of just 16.4 wide receiver targets per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. But if Engram is out, the 7.9 tight end targets they average will slide over to the wide receivers and running backs. If Engram sits, Slayton can be considered a mid-to-low-end WR4 who’s a bit boom-or-bust. If Engram plays, he becomes nothing more than a hail-mary WR5. *Update* Not only is Engram out, but Tate is out as well, leaving Slayton with a role that should net a minimum of six targets. He’s in the WR4 conversation here. 

TEs
Jimmy Graham: His role has been diminishing in the offense, as he’s now gone seven straight games with no more than five targets, including just nine targets over the last three games combined. The Giants have been a matchup to avoid for tight ends, as they’ve allowed just 8.7 PPR points per game to the position. The acquisition of Jabril Peppers has paid off, as opponents have averaged just 3.4 receptions and 36.5 yards as a team against them, let alone just one tight end who’s been seeing limited targets. They’ve allowed just one tight end to record more than three receptions in a game, highlighting just how low the floor can be for someone like Graham. He’s nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE2 who happens to be tied to Rodgers, who could throw for four touchdowns this week.

Evan Engram: There’s going to be a lot of uncertainty around Engram throughout the week, so he’s someone who’ll be updated by Saturday morning as we monitor his practice participation. Even his replacement is unclear at the moment, as Rhett Ellison is still in the concussion protocol. *Update* Engram has been ruled OUT for this game, as has Ellison, leaving Kaden Smith in as the starter once again. He did see six targets against the Bears in his spot-start last week and knowing Tate is out, there are a lot of targets available. Smith can be considered a middling TE2 for those in dire need, as the Packers have allowed seven top-12 tight end performances.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 49.0
Line: JAX by 1.0

QBs
Jameis Winston: You love to hate him, but he’s been a good thing for your fantasy team in 2019. He’s now finished as a top-16 quarterback in each of the last nine games, including six top-10 finishes. He throws a lot of interceptions, sure, but he also throws for a ton of yards and ranks No. 2 in passing touchdowns behind only Russell Wilson. Unfortunately, a matchup with the Jaguars is on deck. They’ve allowed just 16 passing touchdowns through 11 games, though many will see they’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It sure helps that they’ve allowed a league-leading five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. If you were to rely on just passing, they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. To be fair, they are coming off a game in which Ryan Tannehill finished with 34 fantasy points where he completed 14-of-18 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another 40 yards and two touchdowns. He was just the fourth top-12 performance they’d allowed this year. Winston does have more mobility than most realize, as he’s rushed for at least 23 yards in four of the last five games, which does give him a higher floor in games he doesn’t have it through the air. He’s thrown 15 interceptions over the last six games, so it’s fair to say he already hasn’t had “it” over the past two months, but when it comes to fantasy, we don’t mind as long as Bruce Arians doesn’t bench him. This is the last worrisome game on the fantasy schedule for Winston, as the Bucs should rely on the run a bit more. Still, he’s done enough to earn a high-end QB2 grade in this tough matchup.

Nick Foles: You have to wonder if Doug Marrone starts to consider going back to Gardner Minshew at some point, as Foles hasn’t been the answer to their issues. He’s completed 65-of-95 passes for 568 yards over the last two games with two touchdowns and one interception. If there’s a team he needs to take advantage of on the schedule, it’s this one. The Bucs are the only team in football who has allowed quarterbacks to outscore running backs. The gap is 5.46 points, too, so it’s not small. It’s safe to say the Jags will be leaning on Foles this week. He’s had the volume, which is precisely what quarterbacks have racked up against the Bucs, with the 41.7 attempts per game being the most in the NFL. No other team has seen more than 39.7 per game. Oddly enough, just three quarterbacks have topped 7.60 yards per attempt against them, but the volume speaks volumes, as there’ve been six quarterbacks who’ve totaled at least 314 yards. There’ve been just three quarterbacks who’ve failed to throw multiple touchdowns against them, with two being in divisional matchups where each team knows each other well. Matt Ryan‘s lackluster performance in Week 12 was the first time since way back in Week 2 where a quarterback finished worse than the QB14. Knowing seven of the last nine quarterbacks they’ve played to finish as top-10 options, Foles should offer streamability in this matchup, though his lack of mobility keeps him in the high-end QB2 range.

RBs
Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber: This is still unfortunately a timeshare between the two, though Jones is at the top of it. Since being given the starting role, Jones has received 45 carries and 17 targets while Barber has 26 carries and four targets. That’s over a span of four games. If there’s a week for Arians to give Jones his true “breakout” game, this is it. Here’s a fun fact about Jones: He ranks third in yards per route run among running backs, behind only Austin Ekeler and Chris Thompson. The Jaguars have been the worst run defense in the league over the last three weeks, allowing a massive 584 yards on 81 carries (7.21 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns. During that three-week span, there have been six running backs who’ve finished as a top-24 option. There’s been just two games this year where Jones has totaled more than 14 carries, but here’s to hoping it’s his third. If you don’t trust him in this matchup, you never will. Plug him in as a low-end RB2 with top-10 upside. Barber should actually offer some viability, too. The Jaguars don’t throw points up on the board with ease and shouldn’t blow out the Bucs to the point where they abandon the run, so it’s a rare chance for the Bucs to lean on the run-game a bit. Barber has a wider range of outcomes, but he can be played as a high-end RB4.

Leonard Fournette: He looked phenomenal last week. The Jaguars were obviously not a team who were anywhere close to winning that game, but Fournette ran hard. He wasted no time behind the line of scrimmage, got downhill, and ran with determination. If he continues to do that, he will win fantasy championships. Unfortunately, there’s a brutal matchup blocking his path in Week 13. The Bucs are the only team in football who has allowed quarterbacks to outscore running backs. The gap is 5.46 points, too, so it’s not small. Of the production the Bucs allow to non-quarterbacks, running backs make up just 20.8 percent of it, the lowest mark in the league by a long shot, as no other team is at less than 25.9 percent. There have been just five running backs who’ve scored more than 10 PPR points against them, though we have seen three of them reach top-10 territory. Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Todd Gurley were the three. Each of them totaled at least 12.4 PPR points through the air, which is something Fournette is plenty capable of hitting, as he’s third in running back targets behind only McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler (crazy, right?). In the end, it requires tons of volume to succeed against the Bucs, as the 0.67 PPR points per opportunity they’ve allowed ranks as the third best in football behind only the Patriots and Steelers. The Bucs games do net an average of 135.2 plays per game, which is the highest mark in the league, so Fournette should have no issue hitting his usual 20-plus touches. It’s a tough matchup but he remains in the mid-to-low-end RB1 conversation this week.

WRs
Mike Evans: He and Godwin now sit as the No. 2 and No. 3 fantasy receivers on the season, which is remarkable and something that no one could’ve predicted. They both have 1,000 yards through 11 games, while the only non-Bucs player who can say that is Michael Thomas. Evans’ target share has come down the last three games, totaling 6-8-8 targets, which is still solid, but not the 17-12-16 he had in the previous three games. The Jaguars have been solid in the secondary despite losing Jalen Ramsey, as they’ve allowed just the 12th-fewest points to receivers this year. There have been just seven receivers who’ve totaled more than 65 yards against them all season. Just three of those receivers have been the team’s No. 1 go-to receiver, which is something, though it’s also tough to say how opponents feel about Evans/Godwin right now. Evans is likely to see more of A.J. Bouye, who’s been okay this year, though nothing special, as the 105.4 QB Rating in his coverage would suggest. It’s been difficult to know which Bucs receiver is going to go off, though in this matchup, it might be tough for either of them to absolutely explode. You continue plugging Evans in as a WR1, but you don’t need to attack him in DFS this week.

Chris Godwin: After another monster performance, Godwin sits as the No. 2 fantasy receiver behind only Michael Thomas. Both him and Evans have alternating in big games, as evidenced by this chart.

You can see that there’s been just one game where they both reached 20 PPR points. Godwin plays in the slot much more than Evans does, which does help him evade A.J. Bouye, but slot cornerback D.J. Hayden has arguably been the Jaguars best cornerback this year. He’s allowed just 20-of-30 passing for 179 yards and no touchdowns in his coverage. Fellow big-bodied slot-heavy receiver Tyler Boyd saw 14 targets against them, totaling just 5/55/0 in his matchup. Godwin should obviously be started every week, but he’s probably going to wind-up in WR2 territory this week. You can’t forget that he was the WR23-WR25-WR24-WR41 the previous four weeks before destroying the Falcons.

D.J. Chark: Just when we think we nail down Chark’s role in the offense, he goes out and catches five passes for 38 yards in a plus-matchup. He has five top-13 finishes this season, but also has five games where he’s finished outside the top-30 receivers. That’ll happen when you play on an inconsistent offense with inconsistent quarterback play. Of the fantasy points the Bucs allow to non-quarterback positions, 58.5 percent goes to the wide receiver position, which is the highest percentage in football. No other team is above 56.6 percent. This is a matchup to target with wide receivers. Over their last four games, they’ve allowed nine different receivers to finish as top-36 options, including five top-eight receivers. The 47.3 PPR points per game they’ve allowed to the position is 6.2 more than any other team in the league. Chark should be played as a low-end WR1 this week and should have one of his bigger games here.

Chris Conley: It was another high-target game for Conley, who has 38 targets over the last five games, or 7.6 per game. His targets are not weak ones, either, as his average depth of target is 14.9 yards down the field. His 176 air yards in Week 12 were the third most among receivers. Against the Bucs, his targets should continue and hopefully amount to fantasy points. They’ve faced an average of 25.5 targets per game to wide receivers alone, which has led to 15.5 receptions, 206.1 yards, and 1.64 touchdowns per game for wide receivers. The Jags have three receivers to share that production, which does make the situation dicey, but any receiver who’s seen seven-plus targets (16 occasions) against the Bucs has finished as the WR31 or better. Knowing Conley hasn’t seen less than seven targets since back in Week 6 bodes well for his chances here. He’s in the WR4 conversation as someone who’s been inconsistent in production, but he’s not a bad spot-starter.

Dede Westbrook: It was finally the week Westbrook owners were waiting for, as Foles seemed to learn he existed. He saw nine targets against the Titans, catching eight of them for 69 yards. The Bucs are struggling to find bodies to defend the slot, as they cut Vernon Hargreaves a few weeks back, have had M.J. Stewart shelved the last two weeks, and even had Sean Murphy-Bunting had to leave the game with a knee injury last week. With Stewart out the last two weeks, they’ve allowed 15-of-19 passing for 144 yards and a touchdown in the slot, so you’re definitely not worried about the matchup with Westbrook. He probably has a WR4-type floor in this game with upside for more, especially knowing Foles had some success when targeting him last week.

TEs
O.J. Howard: Just one week after the Bucs benched Howard and gave Cameron Brate 14 targets, they had Howard run 19 routes while Brate ran just eight of them. The part most people have missed is that the Bucs are relying on Howard for their future, and they can’t simply “move on” from him like some have suggested. It doesn’t mean you have to start him in fantasy, though. The Jaguars haven’t faced much volume from tight ends this year, as there’ve been just two tight ends who’ve exceeded four targets against them. The 7.86 yards per target and 2.00 PPR points per target they’ve allowed to the position are both pluses for tight ends, but if they’ve seen just 5.1 tight end targets per game, and Howard has seen more than four targets just twice all season, it’s extremely hard to trust him as a streamer. There’s going to be a game before the end of the year where Howard simply goes off, and everyone will wonder where it’s been all year. Unfortunately, he probably won’t be in many fantasy lineups when that happens, as he’s just a low-appeal TE2 who’s seen three targets over the last two weeks combined.

Nick O’Leary: It’s difficult to even keep track of who the Jaguars are trotting out at tight end anymore, as they’ve now had five different starters at the position. Geoff Swaim, James O’Shaughnessy, Josh Oliver, Seth DeValve, and now O’Leary. In his first game with the Jaguars, O’Leary totaled four targets and caught all of them for 36 yards. It’s tough to completely overlook him this week, as the Bucs have now allowed 9-of-11 tight ends to finish as the TE14 or better against them. The only tight end who didn’t total at least 33 yards against them was Maxx Williams, though the Cardinals tight ends never do. If you’re looking for a bottom-of-the-barrel available in every league type play, he’s your guy.

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins

Total: 45.0
Line: PHI by 9.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: He apparently suffered a bruise on his throwing hand towards the end of that game last week, which may limit his practice this week, but he’s expected to be fine. The question is: Will his receivers be? He was down to Mack Hollins, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and Jordan Matthews last week. Matthews was cut just one day after the game, which indicates they’re expecting someone back. For now, we’ll expect both of them to return. The Dolphins aren’t a team they should have to throw much against, regardless. Opponents have averaged just 31.7 pass attempts per game against them (5th-fewest), though that’s been enough to produce, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. They’re the best matchup for a pocket-passer, as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per pass attempt (not including rushing totals), as well as a league-high 7.45 percent touchdown-rate. The only two quarterbacks who didn’t throw at least two touchdowns against them were Sam Darnold (he actually did, though they overturned one of them) and Brian Hoyer. They’re generating a sack on just 3.9 percent of dropbacks, which is easily the lowest mark in the league. There’s not much to worry about here with Wentz, who should get back into the low-end QB1 territory provided his receivers play.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Here’s a crazy fact: Fitzpatrick ranks as the No. 5 fantasy quarterback since the start of Week 7. It helps that he had his bye week before then, but still, he’s been playing very well for the Dolphins. He’s running into the Eagles at a bad time, though. They were a team to attack earlier in the year, but now that their secondary has gotten healthy, they’ve allowed just one passing touchdown over their last three games, which includes matchups against Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. This game will also be played in Philadelphia with their playoff aspirations dangling in the balance. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position, behind only the Ravens. This is not likely going to be a great showing for Fitzpatrick, who is off the streaming radar.

RBs
Miles Sanders and Jay Ajayi: It doesn’t appear Jordan Howard is expected back any time soon, leaving the backfield to Sanders and Ajayi. Sanders ran extremely well, totaling 63 yards on 12 carries and chipping in with three receptions for 23 yards. If there were one game the Eagles could impose their will on the ground, it’s this week against the Dolphins. There have been six running backs who’ve tallied 100-plus yards on the ground, including another seven running backs who’ve amassed 55-plus yards. This is possible due to the league-high 27.7 carries per game they’ve faced. Most teams haven’t had to utilize their running backs in the passing game very much, as the matchups at receiver are great, but the Eagles might need to. When targeted, running backs have averaged 1.96 yards per target against the Dolphins, which is the second-highest mark in the league. Provided Howard is out, Sanders should be locked into lineups as a high-end RB2 with tremendous upside if Pederson lets him run with the job. There’s likely enough work to give Ajayi 8-10 touches, which could allow him to sneak into the RB4 conversation this week with a decent floor.

Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird: The inefficiency continued last week, as Ballage is now averaging just 1.90 yards per carry on the year. The Dolphins have seemingly started to take notice, as his snap percentage went from 82 percent in Week 10, to 77 percent in Week 11, and then just 38 percent in Week 12. They involved both Laird and Myles Gaskin in that game, giving Ballage 24 snaps, Laird 23 snaps, and Gaskin 16 snaps. If that’s how they’re handling it, no one has any appeal this week against the Eagles, who’ve faced an average of 25.3 touches per game by running backs. Not just the lower volume, but the efficiency has been bad too, as they’ve allowed just the 12th-fewest points per opportunity. This game has negative gamescript written all over it, so we naturally want to look at the running back who runs the most pass routes, and that was Laird last week with 14 routes (Ballage 12, Gaskin 6). It’s still Ballage who’d get any goal-line carries, which gives him more value, but not enough to be considered anything more than a middling, low-upside RB4. Laird had a much better matchup last week and saw just one target, so he can’t be trusted as anything more than a low-end RB4 in PPR formats.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: He was supposed to play last week but after testing his ankle in pre-game warmups, he decided against it. He’s last played in Week 9, so we’re talking about almost a full month he’s had to heal. The Dolphins are a matchup he’ll want to come back for if possible, as they’ve allowed a massive 2.07 PPR points per target on the season, which ranks as the third-most behind only the Falcons and Giants. Most of that comes from the fact that they’ve allowed a touchdown every 10.6 targets to the wide receiver position. Despite facing the ninth-fewest targets to them, they’ve allowed the most touchdowns (19). Jeffery hasn’t topped 76 yards all season, so he’s obviously someone who relies on touchdowns quite a bit. He’s also averaged 8.0 targets per game since coming back from his first injury. Provided Jeffery practices all week (ideally in full), he should be considered a low-end WR3 who does present risk of re-injury, but also offers two-touchdown upside. *Update* He got in a full practice on Friday and is good to go for this week’s game.

Nelson Agholor: With the Eagles cutting Jordan Matthews on Monday, it seems like Agholor should be back in the lineup this week, though they aren’t guaranteeing anything. He would return to the slot role, which has tons of appeal against the Dolphins, who’ve really struggled to defend the middle of the field. As a team, they’ve allowed 56-of-90 passing for 724 yards and eight touchdowns while defending the slot, and that includes games where they were at full strength. They are no longer at full strength. We watched Jarvis Landry go for 10/148/2 last week, though it’s important to note his slot role has diminished. Of the 14 receivers who’ve finished as a top-36 receiver against the Dolphins, all of them had at least five targets, with 10 of them seeing eight-plus targets, and that’s territory Agholor only sees if Jeffery is out. If both of them play, Agholor is a low-end WR4 who could surprise. If Jeffery sits again but Agholor plays, he’d move into the must-start WR3 territory. *Update* He got in a full practice on Friday and is good to go for this week’s game.

DeVante Parker: Another week has passed, and another week Parker has amassed 55-plus yards. He’s now done that in 9-of-11 games this year, something only Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, and Parker can say. He’s now finished as the WR32 or better in each of his last eight games. Again, if you were to remove his name, everyone would be starting him as a low-end WR2 every week. The Eagles looked like a plus on the schedule a month ago, but they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to them over the last four weeks. It helps that they’ve seen just 16.3 wide receiver targets per game, but they’ve allowed just 1.59 PPR points per target in that time, which would rank eighth in the league over the course of the season. Volume hasn’t guaranteed success against them this year, either, as they’ve faced seven-plus targets 14 times, and just eight of them have finished better than the WR40. Jalen Mills is the one he’ll see about 45 percent of the time. He’s a cornerback who’s had lapses in coverage throughout his career, though he’s played solid in the five games he’s been a part of this year, allowing just a 51.6 percent catch-rate, though he did allow his first touchdown last week. It’s a tougher matchup than most realize, but Parker should be played as a middling WR3 with how stable he’s been.

Allen Hurns: He’s playing the Preston Williams role in the offense and has seen 13 targets over the last two weeks. He’s hauled in eight of them for 95 yards and a touchdown, so he’s on the fantasy radar. His matchup this week will be against Ronald Darby for much of the game, who is likely the best cornerback on the Eagles roster. He’s not someone who’s a shutdown cornerback, as he’s allowed a solid 61 percent catch-rate and three touchdowns on 46 targets this year, but he’s played better as of late. It’s highly unlikely the Dolphins are able to move the ball on the ground against the Eagles, so we should see another five-plus targets for Hurns. He’s nothing more than a middling WR5 but he’s on the map.

TEs
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: We all know Ertz is an every-week start but did you know Goedert has finished as a top-12 tight end in five of the last six games, and even the one he didn’t, he finished as the TE18. Over the last six games, the duo has combined for 91 targets, or 15.2 per game. That’s massive, especially when going against a team like the Dolphins, who’ve allowed 8.25 yards per target to the position, which ranks as the seventh-most in the league. They’ve allowed that while playing against one of the easiest schedules. Here’s the list of tight ends they’ve played: Mark Andrews (finished as TE3), Matt LaCosse, Jason Witten, Lance Kendricks, Jeremy Sprinkle, Dawson Knox twice, Vance McDonald, Ryan Griffin, Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron, and Demetrius Harris. That group has totaled the seventh-most yards per target against the Dolphins. Go ahead and start Ertz as an elite TE1, while Goedert can be played as a mid-to-low-end TE1 depending on which wide receivers are active. *Update* Ertz had to miss practice on both Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury, and though he did return to a limited practice on Friday, he’s listed as questionable. It’s something you must keep an eye on Sunday morning.

Mike Gesicki: He finally broke the barrier, scoring the first touchdown of his NFL career last week. He also saw six-plus targets for the fourth straight game. Unfortunately, he’s topped 28 yards just once in the last five games, which highlights a low floor despite his target share. The Eagles are not a matchup to attack with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just two top-12 tight end performances this year. The first was back in Week 1 where they basically refused to tackle Vernon Davis along the sideline. The other one was when they had multiple injuries and allowed Jimmy Graham to catch six passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. Overall, they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest points to the position, which has been a trend under Jim Schwartz as their defensive coordinator. Gesicki is someone who’s in the streaming conversation due to his target share, but there are better options out there this week.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens

Total: 46.0
Line: BAL by 4.0

QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: Since acquiring Emmanuel Sanders, Garoppolo has been posting much better numbers for fantasy owners. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in four of the five games while completing 70-plus percent of passes in them. He needs to throw for plenty of touchdowns to be fantasy viable, as he offers nothing on the ground. Are touchdowns possible against the Ravens, who look like the best team in the NFL right now? They’ve now played 11 games this year, and have allowed just nine passing touchdowns. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, no quarterback has thrown more than one touchdown. In fact, four quarterbacks have thrown exactly zero touchdowns, including each of the last two games against Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson. The addition of Marcus Peters to the secondary has been huge, as they’ve held 4-of-5 quarterbacks to throw for 241 or less yards with him on the team. The only quarterback who did was Tom Brady, who threw 46 pass attempts and still wound-up to just 285 yards. Garoppolo should not be in your starting lineup this week.

Lamar Jackson: Monday night was the most dominating performance we’ve seen all year. If Jackson plays like he did in that game, there’s no defense in the league that could stop him, including the 49ers. Can Jackson continue his carnage against what might be the league’s best defense? The 49ers have generated a sack on 11.8 percent of dropbacks, which is easily the highest mark in the league, as no other team is above 9.3 percent. But does Jackson match-up well with them? They’ve allowed 5.79 yards per carry to quarterbacks, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. We’ve also seen six running backs total 75-plus rushing yards against them. If there’s one weakness of this defense, it’s on the ground. Does it make sense that Kyler Murray owns the two best performances against them? He finished as the QB6 in both games against them. Dropping back to pass very often would be a mistake, as the 49ers have held quarterbacks to 6.82 or less yards per attempt in 9-of-11 games this year. Let’s be real… you aren’t contemplating sitting Jackson, who is the league MVP after that performance on Monday night.

RBs
Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida: Outside of the one game where Coleman crushed the Panthers, he’s been horrendous and has actually finished with 45 or less rushing yards in five of his last seven games, including each of his last four games. Shanahan has taken notice of his struggles, as he hasn’t topped 12 carries since back in Week 7, though he has received four targets in each of the last four games, which supports a decent floor. It seems like Breida has a good chance to return this week, though nothing is set in stone. The Ravens are a brutal matchup for running backs, and it’s why they’ve averaged a league-low 21.0 touches per game against them. They’ve faced a league-low 190 carries and have allowed a league-low 41 receptions to the position. This should be interesting because the 49ers have averaged 34.8 running back touches per week. If we bring that number down significantly, suddenly no one is looking at more than 10-12 touches. Outside of the Week 4 game against Nick Chubb when they were without Pro Bowl defensive tackle Brandon Williams, the Ravens have allowed just 633 yards on 164 carries (3.86 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns in the other 10 games. We also haven’t seen a running back hit 50 receiving yards against them all season. Coleman is nothing more than a middling-to-low-end RB3 in this matchup. If Breida plays, he might have slightly more appeal, because at least he’s efficient and can break a big play from time-to-time. *Update* Breida is listed as questionable for the game after getting in limited practices all week. 

Mark Ingram: He’s looked phenomenal the last few weeks, and it’s translated into fantasy success. Despite being limited for roughly 16 touches per game, Ingram has been able to finish as a top-24 running back in six of the last seven games, including back-to-back top-five finishes. After not allowing a running back to finish better than RB30 over their first six games, the 49ers have allowed a top-18 running back in five straight games, including Kenyan Drake twice, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, and Jamaal Williams. Teams have seemingly caught on to the fact that you don’t want to throw against them, so they’re racking up the carries. The issue for timeshare running backs is the fact that 49ers opponents average just 57.8 plays per game, the second-lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Ravens have averaged 67.1 plays per game, the third-highest mark in the league. Something has to give. If the Ravens plays are decreased, it likely doesn’t impact Ingram much, as they’d still cap him around 16 while giving the carries beyond that to the backups. The 4.33 yards per carry the 49ers have allowed shouldn’t worry you, as that’s slightly above the league average. Volume has always been the concern for running backs against them, as is the fact that they’ve allowed just three rushing touchdowns. This game sets up for a defensive battle, but Ingram should still be started as a middling RB2.

WRs
Emmanuel Sanders: It’s now been three straight weeks where Sanders has played 32 or less snaps due to his rib cartilage injury, though getting him out of last week’s game early made sense in a blowout. It’s affected his performance/role in the offense too, as he’s totaled just 10 targets over those three games, combining for 6/72/0 in them. This week’s matchup is brutal, even if he weren’t dealing with an injury, as the Ravens have shut down opposing receivers as of late. Since acquiring Marcus Peters, they’ve allowed just six wide receivers to hit double-digit PPR points, and that’s over a span of five games. Each of them saw at least seven targets, while three of them saw double-digits. There isn’t a cornerback Sanders will see more than others, as he is moved all over the formation, but the brutal matchup combined with his recent struggles/limited snap counts amount to someone who doesn’t need to be played in fantasy this week. He’s still in the WR4 conversation but it doesn’t look good this week.

Deebo Samuel: It can be argued that he’s the No. 1 receiver in this offense right now with Sanders ailing and playing limited snaps. Samuel himself was limited in practice last week and questionable for the game, though he looked good when taking his 42-yard reception to the house against the Packers. The issue is that the Ravens have been one of the best in the league against wide receivers, allowing just 1.49 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fifth-best mark in the league. Receivers have needed volume to succeed against them, and Samuel is someone who might get it. Prior to the blowout win in Week 12, Samuel had seen at least seven targets in three straight games. He’s going to see a lot of Jimmy Smith in coverage this week, a cornerback who’s allowed just 11-of-21 passing for 110 yards and one touchdown in his coverage this year. Samuel may be the best 49ers receiver to play this week, but he’s still in the WR3/4 range.

Marquise Brown: We talked about the fact that the Rams didn’t allow explosive plays this year, but Brown didn’t need massive plays to produce against them, hauling in 5-of-7 targets for 42 yards and two touchdowns. Oddly enough, the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest explosive plays. Their zone defense has kept the play in front of them, as they’ve allowed just 18 pass plays that have gone over 20 yards, which is the lowest mark in the league. It’s not just deep plays, either, but passing in general, as they’ve allowed just 119.4 yards per game to receivers. Brown is great when he’s out there running routes, as evidenced by his 2.40 yards per route run, which is the sixth-highest mark in the NFL, but he’s averaging just 24 routes per game. Brown isn’t a great start this week but he’s working his way back into the WR3 conversation with the way Jackson is playing. Consider him a borderline WR3/4 this week though it’s a tough matchup.

TEs
George Kittle: The man is playing through a broken ankle. I love George Kittle and I don’t care who knows it. Not only did he play last week but he posted 6/129/1 on just six targets, so you’re playing him as you always do. The Ravens haven’t been a matchup to attack this year, allowing the fifth-fewest points to the tight end position, though a lack of volume hasn’t helped. They’ve seen just 62 targets all season, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. There have been two tight ends who posted 80-plus yards against them, so it hasn’t been all bad. One was Travis Kelce, who turned eight targets into 7/89/0, and the other was Ricky Seals-Jones, who turned three targets into 3/82/1. The competition has been weak outside of Kelce, if I’m being honest. With the wide receiver/cornerback matchups being so brutal, it’s very likely we see Kittle very involved in the gameplan. He should be played as a high-end TE1 who should be able to overcome the perceived tough matchup.

Mark Andrews: He wasn’t involved too much in the gameplan last week, particularly because he didn’t really need to be. He caught 2-of-3 targets for 45 yards, ending his two-game scoring streak. He’s now seen three or four targets in three of the last four games, which is going to be an issue against the 49ers. They’ve been dominant against almost every position, but their vitals against tight ends are absolutely ridiculous. They’ve allowed 6.65 yards per reception (best in NFL, no one else below 9.25 yards), 4.47 yards per target (best in NFL, no one else below 5.91), and two touchdowns (3rd-fewest). That all amounts to just 1.34 PPR points per target. The only tight end who topped 32 yards against them was Jacob Hollister, who saw 10 targets and finished with 8/62/1. Andrews has performed throughout the year, so you’re going to play him no matter what, but this matchup is not likely to net great results.