Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 46.5
Line: SF by 3.0

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: He went back to the non-relevant fantasy starter the last time he took the field. Over the course of this season, there’s been a lot of ups and downs with him, which is uncharacteristic of him. Here are his finishes this year, in order: 23-17-25-2-23-12-1-3-25-24. He’s finished as the QB23 or worse in 5-of-10 games, which is something we don’t traditionally see from him. Now on to play the 49ers intense pass-rush. The last time Rodgers visited California, he totaled just 161 yards and one touchdown against the Chargers. The 49ers have been a brutal matchup for quarterbacks, though the injuries to Kwon Alexander and Ronald Blair haven’t helped. After allowing just five passing touchdowns through their first seven games, they’ve allowed five passing scores over their last three games, including four to Kyler Murray over two games. Still, as it stands, Murray is the only quarterback to average more than 7.4 yards per attempt, and the only reason he got there was due to a long catch-and-run by Andy Isabella. They boast a league-best 11.8 percent sack-rate while no other team has reached 10.0 percent. Rodgers has been solid under pressure this year, as his 80.9 QB Rating under duress ranks as the seventh best. Still, Russell Wilson ranks as the No. 2 quarterback under pressure, and even he struggled to put up fantasy points against this defense. Despite going into overtime, Wilson finished with just 232 passing yards and one touchdown. Rodgers shouldn’t be considered a must-play in this game, as he teeters on the QB1/2 territory as someone who can overcome a lot, though this matchup doesn’t provide much upside for a quarterback who’s thrown the ball more than 35 times just once.

Jimmy Garoppolo: With the running game struggling, Garoppolo has thrown 91 pass attempts over the last two games. Prior to that stretch, he hadn’t totaled more than 29 pass attempts in back-to-back games. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders was apparently just what the doctor ordered, though Garoppolo has been far from perfect. His three interceptions over the last two weeks could’ve easily been six-plus interceptions had the defenders held onto the ball. But still, we can’t ignore the fact that Kyle Shanahan has allowed him to sling the ball around the field, and despite his issues at times, he’s thrown nine touchdowns over the last three weeks. In non-Cardinals games, Garoppolo has averaged 217.1 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. The Packers have allowed a healthy 275.6 passing yards per game, though the 1.2 touchdowns per game they’ve allowed ranks as the ninth fewest. The Packers pass rush has died down slightly from the start of the year, but their average pressure-rate is 38.3 percent, which ranks fifth in the league. While under pressure, Garoppolo has thrown three touchdowns and five interceptions. The only quarterback who finished better than the QB10 against the Packers was Dak Prescott, who’s obviously been on fire this year. You should prefer to see Garoppolo get it done against a non-Cardinals team to confidently stream him.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: Is this a timeshare? Well, yes, though it’s not nearly as mixed as some think. Here’s a breakdown of their touches in games they both played in:

Keep in mind that Jones was benched for fumbling in Week 6, which is the only time Williams totaled more than 14 touches. The way this timeshare works is that Jones is locked into 7-14 touches per week, while Jones gets at least that many plus any of the additional touches. Is this a game where there will be a lot of additional carries? Not likely. Opposing running backs have averaged just 22.8 touches per game against the 49ers, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. That likely stems from the fact that their opponents average a league-low 56.6 plays per game. When they do carry the ball, the 49ers have started to struggle as of late. Since their bye in Week 4, they’ve allowed 669 yards on 137 carries (4.88 yards per carry) with three touchdowns. This issue is that just two teams have totaled more than 17 carries. If the Packers run the ball a lot, their backs will be just fine. If they lack plays and try to compensate with passes, they won’t. Start Jones as a low-end RB1 who may disappoint. Knowing there has been just four running backs who’ve finished better than RB30, it’s unlikely the Packers get two in that range, making Williams a risky low-end RB3.

Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert: After totaling at least 33 touches among the running backs in each of the first eight games, we’ve seen them trend down from that over the last two weeks. It’s not much, but they totaled 32 touches in an overtime game against the Seahawks and then just 24 touches against the Cardinals last week. The more that moves down, the less likely we have any surefire RB2s in fantasy, as it’s a messy timeshare. Here’s the weekly touch distribution:

We’re clearly seeing a downgrade for Coleman, who may dip even more if Breida comes back. We likely won’t know the answer of that until late in the week. The Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this year while facing an average of 29.1 touches per game. It’s not just the volume that has been good, but the efficiency has as well. They’ve allowed a robust 4.93 yards per carry with 11 rushing touchdowns. The touchdown every 21.1 carries is the fourth-most often in the league, so knowing the 49ers total so many touches, there’s likely value here. Horribly, Jeffery Wilson has received six of the 16 available carries inside the five-yard-line while Coleman has had seven, Mostert two, and Breida one. Coleman still has the most value here, but his appeal has faded quite a bit. If Breida remains out, Coleman should be played as a mid-to-high-end RB2. If Breida plays, he’d fall into the mid-to-low-end RB2 territory. As for Breida himself, he’d walk back into the high-end RB3 conversation who should be getting more touches than Coleman if he’s healthy (because he’s better), though that hasn’t happened. Mostert is clearly someone they don’t want to trust with a big workload, so even if Breida misses, he’s nothing more than a middling RB4. *Update* Breida is listed as doubtful, so he’s not going to play here. 

WRs
Davante Adams: He’s totaled 537 yards in six games (89.5 per game) but has yet to score a touchdown. Odd, right? He’s seen at least 10 targets in each game since his return, so it’s only a matter of time for a guy who scored 10-plus touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. With where he aligns, he’s going to see Richard Sherman more than anyone else, though it’s still just 40-45 percent of the time. Sherman has been phenomenal in coverage this year, allowing just 21 catches for 185 yards and one touchdown over a span of 39 targets in coverage. He’s also intercepted three passes, which has added up to just a 43.2 QB Rating when targeting him. Again, Adams will see the other cornerbacks 55-60 percent of the game, so it’s not his only avenue of production. The 49ers have allowed just two wide receivers to finish better than the WR20 against them, so the others have clearly done their part as well. You’re playing Adams as a low-end WR1 here where you’ll have to temper expectations, but avoid having too much exposure in DFS.

Allen Lazard: Is he the new No. 2 receiver in the Packers offense? He may not have played as many snaps as Allison, but he’s getting the consistent targets in the offense. Lazard has averaged 4.8 targets per game since joining the rotation five games ago, including a season-high six targets in their last game. He’s been the movable chess piece in the Packers offense, as he’s played in the slot and on the perimeter, which is likely why the Packers have been utilizing him more. The bye week could’ve helped him carve out a bigger role in the offense, though it’s not the week to put him in your lineup to find out. The 49ers have allowed just 1.50 PPR points per target, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the league. We don’t know for certain that Lazard will see more than a handful of targets in a matchup where the 49ers allow their opponents just 56.6 plays per game (lowest in the league) and 18.4 wide receiver targets per game. He’s someone who should absolutely be stashed on fantasy benches, but you don’t have to start him just yet.

Geronimo Allison: Let’s just call it as it is… Allison has been a dud this year. Someone who’s scored a few timely touchdowns, but he’s yet to top four receptions or 52 yards this year despite playing in a full-time role alongside Rodgers. He’s actually finished with 33 yards or less in 8-of-10 games. The 49ers have allowed just five top-24 performances this year, but have allowed another seven wide receivers finish in WR3 range (WR25-WR36). The good news for Allison is that five of them have been slot-heavy receivers. The bad news is that all of them saw at least five targets, something that’s hardly a guarantee with Allison. He’s averaged just 3.7 targets per game this year, and that’s with both Adams and Valdes-Scantling missing time/snaps. Allison is not a recommended start this week, though it’s tough to completely forget about him, as he still ranks second in snaps among Packers receivers.

Emmanuel Sanders: He played through his rib cartilage injury last week, though it only allowed him to play 32-of-73 snaps, so it clearly affected him. He still saw five targets, though they netted just three catches for 33 yards. The Packers have played a lot of zone coverage this year, which means there’s been no shadowing by Jaire Alexander. That hasn’t really worked out that well, as they’ve allowed a massive 9.76 yards per target to wide receivers, which is the third most in the NFL, behind only the Bengals and Giants. You wouldn’t hesitate to start Sanders against them, so you shouldn’t against the Packers, though his health is the primary concern. If he’s only playing half the snaps, it’s unlikely he racks up the targets against a team that’s faced just 17.5 receiver targets per game. If he practices in full this week and is deemed 100 percent, he should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 who presents just a little risk of re-injury. If he’s limited all week, he obviously presents more risk and should drop into the WR3 territory. *Update* He did not practice Wednesday, then got in limited sessions the remainder of the week. There’s clearly still some risk with trusting him in a full-time role. 

Deebo Samuel: The arrival of Sanders has benefitted Samuel more than anyone else, as he’s seen 28 targets over the last three weeks, which have amounted to 20 receptions for 286 yards. He should have a touchdown in there, but he dropped it. Still, that’s plenty of production from Garoppolo’s No. 2 receiver. The pass attempt increase over the last few weeks definitely didn’t hurt, and neither did the missed snaps by Sanders, but it’s clear that Samuel has grown quite a bit and is trusted by Shanahan and Garoppolo. He’s likely to see Kevin King most of the time, a cornerback who’s looked decent at times, and horrendous during others. He’s been known to get beat deep, though that’s not Samuel’s forte, as his average depth of target is a piddly 7.9 yards. The Packers have allowed just 11 top-24 receivers this year, which obviously amounts to just over one per game. We should expect their passing volume to dip in this matchup, while also expecting Sanders to play more snaps. Samuel’s arrow is pointing up but should be considered a high-end WR4 rather than a must-start. *Update* He didn’t have a full practice this whole week, as he’s dealing with a shoulder injury. This adds a bit more risk to him, though he remains in the WR4 territory. 

TEs
Jimmy Graham: It’s somewhat painful watching Graham move the way he is, as it’s easy to remember the days of him as a freak athlete who moved much faster than someone his size should’ve. He’s seen more than five targets just once this year, and keep in mind that’s with injuries to Adams and Valdes-Scantling. The 49ers have been the least attractive matchup in the league for tight ends, allowing just 4.53 yards per target. By comparison, no other team has allowed less than 5.85 yards per target. They’ve allowed just 23.1 yards per game to the position. Think about that for a minute. We’re now talking about a span of 10 games, so the sample size is solid. Outside of Jacob Hollister‘s performance in Week 10, they have not allowed another tight end to post double-digit PPR points. Graham is not a recommended streamer.

George Kittle: We don’t have any news on Kittle at this point, so stay tuned for updates on him and his backup, Ross Dwelley. *Update* Kittle got in two limited practices this week and is listed as questionable, so it appears he’ll be active for Sunday night football. If you own him in season-long leagues, you’re playing him. It also doesn’t hurt to know the Packers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the tight end position this year. 

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 46.5
Line: BAL by 3.0

QBs
Lamar Jackson: He’s had a Christian McCaffrey-type effect on the quarterback position this year, now finishing as the QB6 or better in 8-of-10 weeks, including top-three in five of them. The Rams are the next team on his path of destruction. They’ve been a team that’s limited passers as they’ve allowed just 0-1 passing touchdowns in 8-of-10 games, though there were two hiccups in there against Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, who each threw four touchdowns. Both of those quarterbacks have some mobility, though Jackson’s is unmatched. He’s now on pace for 1,261 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. If he weren’t to throw any passes and just take those averages, he’d be averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. So, even if he’s throwing for just 200 yards and one touchdown, you have 23.5 fantasy points. If there’s on downside, it’s that the Rams have allowed just 45 rushing yards to quarterbacks this year, which is the lowest in the league. The most mobile quarterback they’ve played over the last two years is Wilson, who rushed for 32 yards against them this year, and there was a 92-yard performance last year. The Rams haven’t seen a good quarterback in quite some time, as they’ve played Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, and Andy Dalton over their last three games. But in reality, this is more about Jackson than it is about the matchup with the Rams. You’re not considering benching him. On primetime, Jackson should not disappoint.

Jared Goff: He’s been the polar opposite to Lamar Jackson, as someone who’s been regressing as a passer. His problems date back to last year and we now have an 18-game sample size to draw from. To visualize this, here’s a chart of those games.

Those are not the marks of someone who we saw back at the start of 2017 with Sean McVay. These numbers could easily be mistaken for someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Mason Rudolph. The games he’s put numbers up have been mostly against lackluster opponents. The Ravens are not a lackluster opponent. Since Week 4, they’ve allowed just 139-of-243 passing for 1,481 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. That’s an average of just 246.8 yards per game, 6.09 yards per attempt, 0.83 touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions. Keep in mind they recently acquired cornerback Marcus Peters and got Jimmy Smith back healthy. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 3 to find the last quarterback who threw more than one touchdown. Goff is not someone you want to stream this week.

RBs
Mark Ingram: He’s currently the RB11 in PPR formats despite averaging just 13.6 carries per game this year. Only him, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones can say they’re top-12 running backs with less than 161 carries. With Lamar Jackson forcing defenses to constantly worry about him, Ingram will continue to have success. He also saw a season-high four targets last week and turned them into 37 yards and two touchdowns. Ingram’s floor is definitely lower than most in the top-12, which is why you don’t rely on those numbers, but it’s good to see that’s where he’s at despite the limited workload. The Rams have allowed just seven running backs to finish as top-20 options this year. Every one of those options has either (a) seen 17-plus carries, or (b) totaled 14.5 PPR points through the air alone. That first number is going to be hard to get to considering he’s topped 16 carries just once all season. He hit that second number last week, but in no other game has he topped 7.2 PPR points through the air. The Rams allow the sixth-fewest points per opportunity to running backs, which doesn’t bode well for Ingram, who averages just 15.3 touches per game. He could always find the end zone and boost his numbers, leaving him in the middling RB2 territory, though this isn’t a high-floor game for him.

Todd Gurley: Over the two games since the bye week, the Rams running back touch total goes Gurley 40, Malcolm Brown 10, Darrel Henderson 4. We saw Gurley tote the ball 25 times against the Bears, which is massive considering he hadn’t topped 19 touches all year up to that point. This could be the resurgence of Gurley in the offense, as he’s looked healthy and agile. The issue is that the Ravens run defense is pretty legit. They’ve had one game where they simply failed to really show up when Nick Chubb rushed for 165 yards and three touchdowns against them back in Week 4, though it’s always important to note they were without stud interior lineman Brandon Williams for that game. Removing that one game from existence, they’ve allowed just 611 yards on 157 carries (3.89 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns in the other nine games. They’re not a pushover run defense, though it’s the Rams best avenue of moving the ball, as their pass defense has been among the best in the NFL. With all the question marks surrounding Robert Woods, Gurley should also be utilized in the receiving game, though the Ravens have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs. Gurley should be considered a mid-to-high-end RB2 this week whose arrow is trending in the right direction.

WRs
Marquise Brown: We keep hearing that Brown is playing at less than 100 percent, which should be expected considering he had offseason surgery on his foot. As a pass-catcher, it’s something that typically takes a full year to get back to 100 percent. He’s seen just four targets in each of the last three games and hasn’t topped five targets since way back in Week 4. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rams handle him, as Jalen Ramsey may struggle with his speed. The Rams have allowed just 21 pass plays that have gone for 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the second-lowest number in the league. The 12.0 yards per reception they’ve allowed to receivers is the seventh-lowest number in the league. Of the 10 wide receivers who’ve scored 12.5-plus PPR points against them, only Tyler Lockett saw less than seven targets. Brown isn’t seeing enough targets to start confidently, especially if he’s not at full strength. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR4 option who’s failed to reach 50 yards in five of his last six games. Now is the time to buy in dynasty, though.

Willie Snead: He’s the only other receiver on the Ravens roster who’s seen more than 18 targets this year, which is why he gets a few lines here. The issue is that 44.2 percent of his production this year came on one play (50-yard touchdown catch in Week 4). He hasn’t topped three targets since Week 6 and will have a tough matchup against Nickell Robey-Coleman. Keep moving.

Cooper Kupp: It was only a matter of time before Goff’s struggles trickled down to Kupp, though no one could’ve expected three catches for 53 yards over a two-week stretch. Those are worrisome numbers for a guy who’s about to go head-to-head with Marlon Humphrey, a cornerback who’s allowed 17-of-27 passing for 208 yards and one touchdown while covering the slot. He moved to the slot mid-way during the season and stayed there once the team acquired Marcus Peters and got Jimmy Smith back from injury. The bottom line is that it’s not a plus-matchup that’ll allow Kupp to bounce back with ease. He’s in middling WR2 territory right now as someone who needs Goff to play better.

Brandin Cooks: He’s expected to play in this game, which is obviously good news for everyone involved because even if he’s not producing, he’s changing the way a defense approaches you. The Ravens aren’t likely to shadow Cooks with anyone, which means he’ll see Jimmy Smith most of the time, as he’s been planted at RCB. Smith is a 4.42 speed guy, so he has enough to hang with Cooks, though injuries over his career may have slowed him down a bit. He’s allowed just 8-of-15 passing for 73 yards and one touchdown in his coverage this year, as he’s only been active for four games this year. Volume doesn’t even mean anything against the Ravens, as they’ve played 22 receivers who’ve seen six-plus targets, yet only 13 receivers have finished as top-36 options. Cooks has one-play upside and would see plenty of volume if Woods were held out, so we can put him in WR3 territory, but it’s not a great matchup. It appears Woods might play, moving Cooks into the boom-or-bust WR3/4 tier.

Robert Woods: He rejoined the team on Friday, so there’s a good possibility he plays in this game, as he’s been part of this offense for a few years now. How much will he be involved in the gameplan? That’s a different story, though he’s had enough volume to be in the low-end WR3 conversation.

TEs
Mark Andrews: Say what you want about Andrews’ snap counts, but he’s seen at least seven targets in 8-of-10 games this year. There are just 11 wide receivers who can say that. The Rams haven’t been a defense to avoid in streaming matchups, let alone when you have an every-week starter like Andrews. They’ve allowed five different tight ends 12-plus PPR points, which all amounted to top-10 finishes on the week. It’s required some volume, though, as they’ve allowed 1.65 PPR points per target, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Those who saw good volume and didn’t produce include Greg Olsen (4/36/0 on nine targets), Jared Cook (2/25/0 on seven targets), and Vance McDonald (3/11/0 on seven targets). They’re all highly inefficient tight ends. Start Andrews as you normally would, which is a high-end TE1.

Gerald Everett: What in the world happened to Everett’s role last week? Even with Cooks and Woods out of the lineup, he saw one target. So much for that must-start label, eh? There’s been just one tight end who’s totaled more than four receptions against the Ravens this year, and that was Travis Kelce. The 7.85 yards per target they’ve allowed is right around the league average, but the fact that they’ve seen just 5.4 tight end targets per game and allowed just two touchdowns to them has allowed them to currently sit as the No. 4 defense against the position. The Rams aren’t going to be able to run on the Ravens as well as they did against the Bears, so we should be expecting much more passing volume in this game. He’s been extremely hit-or-miss, finishing as a top-eight tight end in four of his last seven games, but in the three games he didn’t, he finished outside the top-24. He’s a borderline streaming option this week, but there are others who present a higher ceiling.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Total: 46.5
Line: HOU by 5.5

QBs
Jacoby Brissett: After totaling at least 16.3 fantasy points in each of his first four games, Brissett has failed to reach that number in four of his last five games. The matchups did get a bit tougher, but that won’t be the case in Week 12. The Texans are a defense to aggressively attack with streaming quarterbacks, as their secondary is weak, and without J.J. Watt, their pass-rush is non-existent. They’ve allowed 8-of-10 quarterbacks to score at least 18.1 fantasy points against them, and that includes Brissett, who threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns against them in Week 7 in what was his best performance of the season. There’s been just three quarterbacks who’ve failed to average at least 7.17 yards per attempt against them this year, so it doesn’t even require volume. They’re so desperate in their secondary, they’ve gone out and snagged the recently cut Vernon Hargreaves to join their cornerback unit. If he plays, it’s great news for all pass-catchers. Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen are the only two quarterbacks who failed to throw multiple touchdowns against the Texans. Brissett should be considered a high-end QB2 this week.

Deshaun Watson: I’d said last week that Watson hadn’t finished outside the top five quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks all season, but that streak ended in Week 11 when he finished with a career-low 3.9 fantasy points against the Ravens. He was under constant duress, though some of the sacks were on him due to holding onto the ball far too long. He should have more time this week against the Colts, a team he’s extremely familiar with. Over the last 14 months, he’s played them three times. In those games, he finished with 308/1, 267/1, and 375/2. He also added 108 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown over those three games. The Colts are fresh off allowing Nick Foles to throw for 296 yards and two touchdowns against them, though it did take 47 pass attempts to get there. The Colts defense is a team that’s been good/bad based on their opponent, as Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, and Watson were all able to average at least 9.1 yards per attempt, while all other quarterbacks have averaged 6.3 or less yards per attempt. There’s been no in-between. Knowing that Watson has had some success against this Matt Eberflus defense in the past, combined with the Colts ability to stop the run, and you have the recipe for a bounce-back game for Watson. When you add in the fact that the Colts have ailing cornerbacks (Pierre Desir coming off multi-week injury, Rock Ya-Sin left Week 11 with an ankle injury, and Kenny Moore left with a shin injury), he’s a high-end QB1 here.

RBs
Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines: The Colts will be without Marlon Mack for some time and it appears that Williams will be the one to fill his role. Despite Hines being active and having much more of a role in the past, the Colts gave Williams 13 carries and one reception once Mack went down in Week 11. He turned them into 147 yards, so there’s little reason to doubt he loses that role. Williams has only had 58 carries over the span of his four-year career, so we don’t have much to go off with him. The Texans are not the run defense they once were, as the losses of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are too large to overcome. They may not have allowed a ton of fantasy points due to allowing just three rushing touchdowns, but they’ve allowed a very forgiving 4.51 yards per carry. That mark was at just 3.13 yards per carry in 2018. The issue is that the Texans are at home and clear-cut favorites here, which doesn’t correlate well with backs like Williams. He’s more of a two-down back (like Mack) who gets a major downgrade if the gamescript goes south. Even with Mack – as the starter – in that role, he was only able to net one top-12 finish. Provided Jordan Wilkins remains sidelined with his ankle injury, Williams should have high-end RB3 appeal, though his floor is lower than most in that range. Hines didn’t get much more work with Mack exiting, as he totaled just six touches. On the year, he’s averaging just 5.5 touches per game. This gamescript could favor his role, though it hasn’t amounted to much, as he’s still yet to top 46 total yards this season. He’s nothing more than an emergency RB4 in PPR formats. *Update* Wilkins is looking likely to play, muddying this backfield timeshare, moving Williams into the high-end RB4 conversation. It shouldn’t shock anyone to see Wilkins wind-up with more touches, though Williams is more likely. 

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: So much for Johnson’s role growing over the bye week. Sure, the touch-count was Hyde 9, Johnson 8, but in a game that was out of control so quickly, it should have been more Johnson. The Colts are a legitimate shutdown run defense that’s yet to allow a team of running backs rush for more than 119 yards, while allowing just three touchdowns on 188 carries. This does not bode well for someone like Hyde, who’s a two-down back and not involved in the passing-game. It’s also why we watched Hyde struggle back in their Week 7 matchup where he totaled just 35 yards on 12 carries. It was his least productive game of the year. Had it not been for a late 41-yard touchdown run in garbage time against the Ravens, many would be looking to bench Hyde. The good news, however, is that Hyde is a big home favorite in this game. Of the five running backs who’ve received more than 12 carries against the Colts, each of them were able to finish as a top-24 running back. He lacks upside but Hyde is still in the high-end RB3 conversation. Johnson is tough to trust in this projected gamescript, especially given his limited touch counts the majority of the season. The only two running backs who totaled more than 34 yards through the air against the Colts were Austin Ekeler and Jaylen Samuels, who are both constantly involved in their team’s offense. Johnson is nothing more than a middling RB4 where you’re hoping he breaks a long play with one of his 7-10 touches.

WRs
Zach Pascal: After his six-catch, 76-yard, one-touchdown game against the Steelers, Pascal has choked in his last two games, totaling just four catches for 43 yards in the two games combined. The good news is that he’s seen a solid 13 targets over those games and is clearly the No. 1 receiver. Against the Texans, that means something. We’ve seen 13 different receivers finish as top-32 options against them, though volume has been somewhat necessary, as all but two of them saw at least six targets. For all the issues and injuries they’ve had at cornerback, it’s surprising they haven’t been worse. Pascal torched them for 6/106/2 in the best game of his career back in Week 7, though that was with T.Y. Hilton on the field, taking away some of the attention. The Texans have also shaken up the secondary since that time and will likely have Gareon Conley covering him most of the time. Since joining the Texans, he’s allowed just 8-of-22 passing for 123 yards in his coverage, though two of those completions were for touchdowns. Pascal should offer low-end WR3 value here with a relatively high floor.

T.Y. Hilton: A late addition to this article, as it appears Hilton may give it a go this week, as he’s listed as questionable after getting in a full practice on Wednesday. There’s still some concern about him not playing, as the Colts could give him another 10 days of rest before their next game if they keep him inactive. Hilton tagged the Texans for 6/74/1 earlier this year, as they’re a team he continually dominates against. They haven’t gotten any better since that time. In fact, they’ve only been more injured in the secondary. The concern is obviously him returning off the soft tissue injury that can cause him to leave the game early if it’s aggravated. Consider Hilton a high-end WR3 who offers top-12 upside, but the risk starting him cannot be ignored.

Deandre Hopkins: It’s now been six straight games where Hopkins has totaled at least seven receptions, which is a ridiculous floor. He has seen at least 11 targets in five straight games which helps, but will that continue in Week 12 with Fuller returning to the lineup? In the times Fuller’s played the full game, Hopkins has averaged 9.3 targets per game, but has averaged 12.0 targets per game with him out of it. The Colts game in Week 7 was the one Fuller was hurt and left early, amounting to 12 targets and a 9/106/1 line for Hopkins. The Colts are coming off a game in which they allowed D.J. Chark to tag them for 8/104/2, though it did require 15 targets. They’ve allowed at least one receiver to hit 69 yards in 8-of-10 games this year and Hopkins is the clear-cut No. 1 for the Texans. It seems like the Colts top cornerback Pierre Desir should return for this game, but he doesn’t do any shadowing. You’re starting Hopkins like you normally would, though Fuller may limit his overall ceiling.

Will Fuller: After practicing on a limited basis all last week, it seemed like Fuller was close to playing, so we must assume he suits up for this game. In the six full games Fuller has played, he’s totaled 48 targets, including 34 percent of the team’s air yards in those games, which is more than Hopkins’ 30 percent. We could see him eased back in, which is cause for concern, as is the fact that the Colts haven’t been susceptible to the big play. They’ve allowed just four passing plays to go for 40-plus yards this year, which ranks 21st. Fuller was knocked out of the game in the first quarter against the Colts back in Week 7, but going back to last year against a similar Colts defense, he finished with four catches for 49 yards, though one of them was a touchdown. The Colts may get cornerback Pierre Desir back from his own multi-week injury, and he plays on Fuller’s primary side of the formation. It’s always risky playing a receiver like Fuller (who’s boom-or-bust as it is) coming off a multi-week injury, but knowing how much he means to this offense, he should be given WR3 consideration.

Kenny Stills: It’s going to be tough to trust Stills with Fuller back in the lineup. Why? Well, it appears Keke Coutee is out of the doghouse after playing 43 snaps last week. These two were splitting the slot snaps before Fuller’s injury. On the year, Stills has topped five targets just one time, so his role is not as stable as some may think. The Colts have allowed 12 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options through 10 games, so it seems like it’d be tough task for Stills, the No. 3 option, to get into that territory. He did tally 105 yards the last time these teams met, but that was the game Fuller left in the first quarter. Stills should be considered a WR4/5 who could lose snaps this week.

TEs
Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: We’ve seen Ebron’s role grow exponentially over the last two weeks, as he’s run 48 routes while Doyle has run 36 routes. The target gap is even wider, as Ebron has 16 targets to just four for Doyle, including a zero-target game for him in Week 11. Ebron has now played against this Texans defense three times in the last 14 months. In those games (while in a lesser role), he’s totaled 4/70/1, 4/65/1, and 5/40/1. Clearly, he’s had some success against this defense. He was one of the five tight ends who posted a top-13 performance against the Texans this year, which included Mark Andrews who caught all four of his targets last week for 75 yards and a touchdown. There’s been just one tight end who’s netted more than four receptions against the Texans, though it’s tough to say Ebron should be considered a tight end in his current role that’s more like the No. 2 receiver. With the lack of certainty at the tight end position, Ebron should be in starting lineups as a middling TE1 for this contest. As for Doyle, he didn’t have as much success against the Texans, and coming off a zero-target game with multiple receivers out of the lineup, he’s left in the emergency TE2 territory only. *Update* Ebron popped back up on the injury report with the ankle injury he suffered a few weeks back. He’s listed as questionable, which obviously adds risk, though he did practice on Wednesday. 

Darren Fells: We’ve talked about the inconsistent target share for Fells before, as he’s someone who has a two-target floor. Touchdowns have saved him throughout the year, though oddly enough, he didn’t score against the Colts back in Week 7. I say surprisingly because they’ve been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end position. On the year, they’ve allowed 53-of-76 passing for 496 yards and four touchdowns. That’s a 70 percent completion-rate, though it amounts to just 6.53 yards per target. Because of that, it’s more relying on touchdowns for Fells. With all the wide receivers finally healthy, it’s going to be difficult to project much of a role for Fells. Knowing there are plenty of tight ends who we can say are touchdown-or-bust, Fells is nothing more than a mediocre TE2.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.