Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Total: 37.0
Line: BUF by 4.0

QBs
Brandon Allen: He’s completed just 49 percent of his passes over his two starts but has thrown three touchdowns, so he’s got that going for him… which is nice (sorry if you missed the reference). He’s averaging less than 30 pass attempts per game, which is likely going to be the standard while playing behind this Broncos defense. Going back to the start of last year, the Bills have allowed just 28 passing touchdowns over their last 26 games. That can’t be good for even the best of quarterbacks, right? That includes just seven passing touchdowns through 10 games this year. The 6.24 yards per attempt ranks as the third-best mark in the league behind only the Patriots and 49ers. You’re not going to stream Allen here.

Josh Allen: He’s done a great job cutting down on the turnovers over the last five games, as he’s yet to throw an interception during that time. Prior to this streak, he’d never gone more than two games without an interception. Has he turned a corner? This will be the true test against a tough Broncos defense. They actually have the fourth-fewest interceptions in the league this year, but the matchup presents some issues for the Bills. One being that they’re going to have Chris Harris Jr. essentially taking away his safety blanket in John Brown. Two being that they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. All season long, they’ve allowed just 7.6 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks, and they’ve played some who have mobility. The Broncos now have 24 sacks over the last seven games, which can help lead to poor decision-making. Kirk Cousins was the first quarterback to post a top-12 performance against the Broncos last week, and in fact, that was just the third time a quarterback has finished inside the top-20 against the Broncos. Allen isn’t a preferred option this week and belongs in the middling QB2 territory who’ll likely need his legs to save him.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: The Broncos said they wanted to give Lindsay a bigger role last week in a tough matchup against the Vikings, and they did, giving him 18 touches to just nine for Freeman. He played well, though the defense crumbled down the stretch. If the Broncos want to win this game, the way to beat the Bills is on the ground. While they’ve allowed just 28 passing touchdowns since the start of 2018, they’ve allowed 25 rushing touchdowns. That’s the second-most in football during that time. Crazy for a team that’s allowed just 23.4 (2018) and 17.0 (2019) points per game over the two seasons, right? The issue is the slow pace in their games, as running backs have averaged just 20.5 rushing attempts per game against them, which is concerning for a timeshare. Of the 10 running backs who’ve been able to post top-24 numbers against the Bills, seven of them totaled at least 15 carries. The 4.58 yards per carry they’ve allowed is extremely healthy, so volume is the only thing worrisome about Lindsay, though their 16.5-point implied team total isn’t great. This backfield has been a mix inside the 10-yard-line too, so you never know who’s going to get the goal-line carries. Because of these factors, Lindsay remains in the low-end RB2 conversation, but the matchup isn’t nearly as bad as some think. Freeman has a serious volume issue right now because they’re giving Lindsay double the carries and Allen isn’t checking down to running backs nearly as often as Joe Flacco did, as evidenced by his two targets over the last two games combined. The Bills have allowed just 5.26 yards per target to running backs, so it doesn’t even favor his role. He’s nothing more than a high-end RB4 you’re hoping to get a goal-line plunge with.

Devin Singletary and Frank Gore: We finally got the confirmation we needed when it comes to Singletary being the lead back even in a positive gamescript, as he tallied 15 carries to Gore’s 11 last week. It’s really a shame they haven’t let him run with the job, as he’s averaging a rock-solid 6.1 yards per carry on the year, the most among any running back with at least 40 carries with the closest being Gus Edwards‘ 5.5 yards per carry. He did fumble twice against the Dolphins, and though his team recovered, it could be enough to keep him locked in a heavy timeshare. Unfortunately, things are about to get grim for the Bills run-game in the coming month, as they’ll play the Broncos this week, Cowboys in Week 13, then have what might be the worst playoff schedule among running backs against the Ravens, Steelers, and Patriots. Looking at the Broncos run defense, outside of the game where they allowed Leonard Fournette to run wild for 225 yards, they’ve been lights out. In their other nine games, they’ve allowed just 603 yards on 197 carries (3.06 yards per carry), which amounts to just 67.0 rushing yards per game, obviously not ideal when you’re talking about a guy who splits carries. It’s also rough that he doesn’t get goal-line opportunities, as Gore has received 10 of the 12 carries inside the five-yard-line. The good news is that he’s seen at least six targets in three of his seven games this year and offers big-play potential. Because of that, he remains in lineups as a high-end RB3, though his floor might be low in this game. Gore should be on waiver wires, as he’s not involved in the passing game and has averaged just 9.0 carries over the last five games.

WRs
Courtland Sutton: He’s been phenomenal this year and though I’ve said it before, he’s continually surprising me with how good he looks. The Broncos lost that game last week because they refused to throw the ball his way on three straight goal-line plays to end the game. He was bullying the Vikings cornerbacks all game en route to a 113-yard performance. He’s one of just six players who’ve seen at least seven targets in nine games this year alongside Deandre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Julian Edelman, and Travis Kelce. Not bad company to be in, right? He’s now seen a 28.9 percent target share from Allen. He’s finished outside the top-32 receivers just twice all year, but will his third time come this weekend? The Bills will have Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage, a cornerback who’s allowed 35-of-58 passing for 418 yards in his coverage with no touchdowns to this point. The only perimeter-based receivers who were able to finish better than the WR40 against the Bills have been DeVante Parker (twice), Auden Tate, Preston Williams, Odell Beckham, and Alshon Jeffery. That’s a short list but one that bodes well for Sutton. There are some big-bodied receivers on that list, similar to him. Jeffery was the only one who saw less than eight targets, so volume is necessary. I’m not betting against Sutton who clearly has the talent and opportunity to shine, though we should lower expectations into WR2 territory for this week.

Tim Patrick: He played his first full game of the season in Week 11 and saw eight targets. Clearly, he’s going to have a role in this offense, though we can’t draw too much from a one-game sample size. The Bills had been trotting Levi Wallace out there opposite Tre’Davious White but it seems they’ve seen enough, as Kevin Johnson ate into his snaps in Week 11. Neither are the long-term solution and if the Broncos decide to avoid White in coverage, Patrick would be the main beneficiary, though you shouldn’t be betting on it with an implied team total of just 16.5 points. Keep him on the radar but don’t trust him as anything more than a WR5.

John Brown: There are just two wide receivers in the NFL who’ve totaled at least 50 yards in every game. Michael Thomas and John Brown. It’s rather remarkable what he’s done in his first season with the Bills. He’s seeing increased volume as of late, too. His 40 targets over the last four weeks are the third-most in football. He’s going to need them against Chris Harris Jr. who’s been what might be the second toughest matchup in football (behind only the Patriots). Some may wonder what happened with Stefon Diggs last week, which is a good question, and the answer is that Harris didn’t shadow. It was a bad plan, as Davontae Harris was constantly abused, allowing 9-of-12 passing for 96 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Rational coaching would put Chris Harris on Brown, right? You can’t sit Brown in season-long leagues, but the thought of Harris shadowing him does knock him out of cash-game consideration. If the Broncos don’t shadow, Brown will beat Davontae Harris like a drum.

Cole Beasley: He’s still yet to finish better than the WR20 in any week, but he’s also finished as the WR41 or better in 7-of-10 games. He was the perfect guy to not kill your lineups through bye weeks, but it’s almost time to release Beasley into the wild. The Broncos have allowed just 127.1 yards per game to wide receivers, while allowing just six touchdowns to them through 10 games. Jarvis Landry is the slot receiver who had the most success against them, but even he totaled 6/51/1 on a massive 13 targets, something that seems rather improbable with Beasley who’s failed to top seven targets over the last six weeks. They have Duke Dawson covering the slot, and he has allowed 9-of-11 passing for 99 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks, so there’s hope, especially if Brown gets shadowed by Chris Harris Jr. Still, it’s likely touchdown-or-bust for Beasley, as the Broncos have yet to allow a receiver more than six receptions.

TEs
Noah Fant: His role has been continually growing over the last month, as the 29 targets over his last four games indicate, including a career-high 11 targets in last week’s game against the Vikings. That was a brutal matchup that he walked out of with four catches for 60 yards. Many will see him as an auto-start with that volume, and while I can understand the thought, the Bills are a team that should leave you second-guessing, though. They have yet to allow a tight end more than 48 yards this year, which included matchups with Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Delanie Walker, and Mike Gesicki. It’s not a one-year thing, either. They were the second-best team in football against tight ends last year, allowing just 5.89 yards per target. They’re currently the No. 1 team in the league against tight ends, allowing just 29.6 yards per game to the position. Knowing Fant has caught just 56 percent of his targets, he’d likely need another 11 target to produce in this matchup. He’s trending up but is just a low-appeal TE2 this week.

Dawson Knox: The trend continued for Knox in Week 11, as he ran 22 routes while Tyler Kroft ran just 10 of them. It’s still somewhat of a timeshare, though he’s the one to look at in fantasy. He’s been capped at six targets and has still seen three or less targets in three of the last four games, so he’s not attractive outside of great matchups. The Broncos have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to the tight end position, though they aren’t a bad team against the position. They’ve allowed a mediocre 7.15 yards per target and just three touchdowns on 73 targets. There have been nine tight ends who’ve tallied three or more receptions, which does present a somewhat reliable floor, but it’s not a matchup you have to attack. He’s just a low-end TE2 this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 39.5
Line: PIT by 6.5

QBs
Mason Rudolph: He’ll be back under center in Week 12, with his helmet on, though after watching an abysmal performance on national television, there won’t be many lining up for him on the waiver wire. He’s still yet to score more than 16.8 fantasy points in any of his seven starts and has been trending in the wrong direction. The Bengals are a defense that allows maximum efficiency, as evidenced by their 9.08 yards per pass attempt, which is the highest mark in the league. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks despite facing the least amount of pass attempts per game. Quarterbacks have averaged just 28.8 attempts against them. A lot of the production they’ve allowed is on the ground, as they’ve allowed a league-high 66.7 fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. That’ll happen when you play Lamar Jackson twice. Still, even if we were to remove all the rushing totals, the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per pass attempt. Are you willing to trust Rudolph, who may be without his top two receivers? You should expect the Steelers to go with a run-heavy approach to limit turnovers, leaving Rudolph out of the streaming conversation.

Ryan Finley: This is one of those rare cases where I’m just going to take this play off. Don’t play Finley, even if there’s a fire.

RBs
Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds: I’m going to simply assume Conner is held out this week, as he’s consistently been injured this year and clearly needs a break from game action. Samuels is the primary beneficiary in his absence, though his 2.6 yards per carry have been horrendous. With all the pass-catchers out for the Steelers, he would also get plenty of work in the passing-game. Even with them in the lineup, Samuel has averaged 7.6 targets per game over the last five games he’s played. The Bengals opponents have averaged a massive 29.7 running back touches per game, so there’ll be plenty to go around. The efficiency has been there alongside the volume, as they’ve allowed a healthy 4.70 yards per carry, as well as 7.67 yards per target. Both of those marks are bottom-six in the NFL. Samuels totaled 18 touches the first time these teams met, and they amounted to 83 total yards and a touchdown. There have now been 14 running backs who’ve finished as the RB26 or better against the Bengals. Provided Conner is out, Samuels should be played as a mid-to-high-end RB2. Edmunds isn’t the worst emergency play for those with major bye week issues, as he’s seen 6-12 touches in each of the last three games, which included Conner in two of them. He’s done a better job running the football than Samuels, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if he received half the carries. It’s far from a sure thing, but as a running back who’s available in almost every league, he’s worth a look as an RB4 for those with bye week issues. *Update* Benny Snell is going to be active for this game, taking some appeal away from Edmunds. Snell is coming off a multi-week knee injury, so he still may not get a lot of work. 

Joe Mixon: Who knew all Mixon needed was a change to a lesser quarterback to perform? He’s on a three-game tear right now where he’s tallied an average of 110.3 total yards with two touchdowns. He still ran just 12 pass routes in Week 11. It’s simply outrageous how they continue to avoid one of their best weapons. The Steelers are going to be an issue, as they were a team that held Mixon to just 63 total yards on 19 touches in their first meeting this year. Despite teams averaging 23.5 running back carries per game against them, they’ve allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. The Patriots are the only team in the league who’s allowed less fantasy points per opportunity than the Steelers, as their 0.65 PPR points per opportunity (carries and targets) is extremely good. They haven’t allowed a running back to finish better than RB27 since back in Week 5. Based on Mixon’s opportunity, he’s scored 20.7 less PPR points than expected, so he shouldn’t be expected to be efficient in this matchup. He’s still getting 18-plus opportunities more often than not, so he’s in the low-end RB2 conversation, though he doesn’t offer much upside.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster: On top of his concussion he suffered in Week 11, Smith-Schuster also suffered a knee injury in that game. It seems unlikely that he’ll be ready to play in this game. Should things change, I’ll come back and update. *Update* He’s been ruled out.

Diontae Johnson: He’s currently in the concussion protocol and it’s unsure if he’ll play, though the additional three days should help him get cleared. He’d return to a great matchup against the Bengals, who’ve allowed at least 11.3 PPR points to 10-of-11 receivers who’ve seen more than five targets. Johnson has recorded more than five targets in 5-of-8 games with Rudolph under center, and that was with Smith-Schuster on the field. Teams haven’t felt the need to throw very much against the Bengals and it’s led to them seeing an NFL-low 15.3 wide receiver targets per game. Even so, that’d be enough for Johnson to get his. Stay tuned to updates that I post on Saturday, as we’ll have a better idea on how the Steelers receiver corps is doing and who’s expected to play. If Johnson plays and Smith-Schuster sits, he can be played as a high-end WR4 who should offer a stable floor.

James Washington: He’s quietly been working his way into more targets lately, as his 28 targets over his last five games are enough to be fantasy relevant. He’s also totaled at least 49 yards in four of the last five games. There are many “ifs” with the Steelers receiver corps this week, but one thing we do know is that Washington will be out there and has been seeing an increased role in the offense. Like stated in the Johnson paragraph above, the Bengals have allowed at least 11.3 PPR points to 10-of-11 receivers who’ve seen more than five targets against them. Washington would see a mixture of William Jackson and B.W. Webb in coverage, a duo that’s allowed 41-of-65 passing for 664 yards and two touchdowns. While the two touchdowns aren’t much, the 16.2 yards per reception is appealing for Washington, whose average depth of target is 14.1 yards, easily the highest on the team. Washington can be played as a middling WR4 this week if Smith-Schuster is out.

Tyler Boyd: If there was an <insert eye roll> command on my keyboard, it’d be here. Has there ever been a wide receiver who’s averaged 9.3 targets per game who can be relied on less than Boyd? He’s now finished with 33 or less yards in three of the last seven games. It appeared Finley would be able to support him after they connected 6-of-8 times for 62 yards against the Ravens, but it only led to more disappointment with his one-catch, zero-yard performance against the Raiders. He now ranks eighth in targets but 27th in fantasy points. The Steelers have allowed a top-18 receiver in each of their last three games. If you’d like to lower the bar, they’ve allowed a top-36 receiver in each of their last six games. Since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers haven’t been nearly as good of a matchup up the middle of the field, as they’ve combined to allow 45-of-71 passing for 443 yards and three touchdowns in the slot. That’s just 6.24 yards per target with a touchdown every 23.7 targets. It’s tough to sit Boyd considering his target numbers but this is clearly not a great matchup. He’s a low-upside WR3 option.

Alex Erickson: He’s seen seven targets from Finley the last two weeks. He’s caught one of them for no gain. You’re not going to want to play Erickson if you can help it. The Steelers haven’t been the scariest defense as of late, so when you combine the fact that Auden Tate is extremely unlikely to play, you have to take a look. When you see that seven receivers have seen five-plus targets against the Steelers and still finished with less than 10 PPR points, that’s your excuse needed to avoid Erickson, who should see a handful of targets.

TEs
Vance McDonald: He’s now seen seven targets in each of the last three games, though they’ve amounted to just 74 yards, or 3.52 yards per target. That’s with all the receivers healthy and in the lineup, so knowing they’re less than 100 percent this week, we should expect plenty of work for McDonald once again. The Bengals are one of the matchups that’d make him tempting, too. They’ve allowed a league-high 9.75 yards per target to tight ends, which is much more than the Cardinals 9.17 and Bucs 8.36 yards per target. They’ve allowed just four touchdowns, so they’re fantasy points allowed don’t jump off the screen, but make no mistake about it, they’re a top-five matchup for tight ends. McDonald has still yet to top 40 yards this season but the matchup combined with projected targets put him in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation.

Tyler Eifert: We saw the timeshare increase in Week 11, as Eifert ran 18 routes while C.J. Uzomah ran 15 of them. Uzomah actually out-targeted Eifert five to four, so this has the looks of a full-blown timeshare. Let’s be real though, you weren’t using Eifert in any successful fashion. He’s totaled more than 27 yards just once all season, and it’s not as if Finley is lighting up the scoreboard with touchdowns. The Steelers have been a good matchup for tight ends, as targets have funneled their way, averaging 7.5 per game. They’ve allowed a 72.0 percent catch-rate on those targets, too. With A.J. Green, John Ross, and Auden Tate out, the Bengals need to throw to someone, so Eifert may not be the absolute worst streaming option, but he’s far from a sure thing, especially knowing he saw five targets in their first matchup where he finished with two catches for 27 yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Total: 41.5
Line: TEN by 3.0

QBs
Nick Foles: He started out the game strong last week but nosedived after the first eight minutes of the game. He was 5-of-6 for 72 yards and a touchdown on the first drive but completed just 28-of-41 passes for 224 yards with one touchdown and one interception over the final 52 minutes. Let’s just say it was a mixed bag. Did the bye week come at a perfect time for the Titans? Over the last four games, they’d allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing offenses (103.1 per game), including 21.4 points per game to quarterbacks. They lost Malcolm Butler a few weeks ago to a broken wrist, which downgraded their secondary. But even with him, they’d provided a decent floor for quarterbacks. Over their last nine games, they’ve allowed at least 397 yards or two passing touchdowns to eight quarterbacks, with the only exception being Joe Flacco. It hasn’t been a high-ceiling matchup, though, as just two quarterbacks were able to finish as top-10 options. Given the fact that it’s a divisional game on the road, we should approach with caution, especially since they have one of the lowest implied team totals of the week. He’s more of a middling QB2.

Ryan Tannehill: Many doubted that he’d hang onto the job in Tennessee, but he’s proven the doubters wrong. He’s now completed 84-of-120 passes (70.0 percent) for 1,017 yards (8.48 yards per attempt) with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. It’s translated to fantasy success, too, as he’s totaled at least 18.9 fantasy points in all four games. Now onto the Jaguars, who many believe to be a bad defense without Jalen Ramsey, though that’s not really the case. Of the seven quarterbacks they’ve played without Ramsey, everyone except for Joe Flacco finished in-between QB11 and QB21. In the end, they’re a middle-of-the-pack defense that ranks No. 17 against fantasy quarterbacks while allowing a mediocre 7.25 yards per attempt with a 4.22 percent touchdown-rate. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, no quarterback has hit 8.0 yards per attempt, which is worrisome considering Tannehill has averaged just 30.0 pass attempts per game. We have seen Tannehill use his legs the last two games, totaled 38 and 37 yards, which is important for his fantasy floor. The Jaguars have allowed three different quarterbacks rush for 30-plus yards, as well as another two quarterbacks who rushed for a touchdown. All-in-all, they’ve allowed the eighth most fantasy points on the ground to quarterbacks. Tannehill should post another top-18 performance with a decent floor here, but he doesn’t have a high ceiling.

RBs
Leonard Fournette: He wasn’t happy after the Week 11 loss to the Colts where he totaled a season-low eight carries. He did see seven targets from Foles, though we can’t forget he threw the ball a massive 47 times in that game. The Titans are the team that held Fournette to -4 yards on 14 carries most of the game but allowed one 69-yard run late in the game that propped up his overall numbers. The Titans are also expected to get defensive tackle Jurrell Casey back from his shoulder injury after he’s missed the last two games. They still may be without linebacker Jayon Brown, which would definitely be a boost to Fournette. It’s not a great matchup for him, though. They Titans have held all but one running back (Christian McCaffrey) to 82 or less yards on the ground, and that’s despite eight running backs totaling 14-plus carries. The 5.95 yards per target they’ve allowed isn’t anything to attack either, and again, we’ve already seen Fournette total just 26 yards on the six receptions against them in Week 3. The only two running backs who’ve finished as RB1s against them were McCaffrey (duh) and Austin Ekeler, who caught seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. It seems like it’ll be difficult for Fournette to get in that conversation. If you’re hoping for him to end his touchdown drought, that’ll be tough too, as the Titans have allowed just 12 rushing touchdowns in 26 games under Mike Vrabel, which is the fourth-fewest in the league over that time. You’re playing him in season-long leagues but he’s not a great DFS play.

Derrick Henry: After being known as somewhat of a boom-or-bust running back for most of his career, Henry has been extremely stable over the course of this season. He’s finished as a top-25 PPR running back in 8-of-10 games, while finding his way into the top-10 in five of them. He took advantage of two great matchups against the Panthers and Chiefs before their bye week, but can he do the same against the Jaguars? After losing defensive tackle Marcell Dareus a few weeks back, they’ve allowed the Texans and Colts to combine for 409 yards on 56 carries (7.30 yards per carry) with three touchdowns, and that doesn’t even include the nine receptions for 123 yards through the air. Truth be told, they’ve been struggling against the run all year, but it’s intensified over the last few weeks. The 5.41 yards per carry they’ve allowed this year is 0.36 more yards per carry than any other team. Henry totaled just 44 yards on 17 carries in their first matchup, though it’s important to remember they didn’t have starting left tackle Taylor Lewan for that game. Remember last year when Henry had that game where he totaled 238 yards and four touchdowns? That was against the Jaguars. While that won’t happen again, you should be banking on a massive game out of him here. Over their last two games, the Jaguars have allowed five top-24 PPR running backs. He’s a high-end RB1 this week and a great DFS play.

WRs
D.J. Chark: While Foles was mediocre in his first game, the fact that he targeted Chark 15 times was fantastic. That’s a 32 percent target share, but even better than that, he saw a ridiculous 52 percent of the team’s air yards. Now onto the Titans who lost Malcolm Butler a few weeks ago. They’ve now allowed a 100-plus yard receiver in three straight games after not allowing a single one in the first seven games. Chark saw just five targets in the first matchup against them but was able to haul in four of them for 76 yards and a touchdown. He’ll see a mixture of Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims in coverage, a duo that’s allowed 34-of-51 passing for 376 yards and two touchdowns in their coverage. While it doesn’t look that bad overall, the loss of Butler has softened the matchup by quite a bit, as Sims is the weak link. We can’t automatically assume Chark will see double-digit targets every game with this small sample size, but knowing they’ll struggle to run the ball, he should be in lineups as a high-end WR2.

Chris Conley: With the lack of tight end in the offense, we’ve seen Conley tally at least seven targets in each of the last four games. He’s now seen 10 targets from Foles that have netted seven catches for 79 yards, so it’s clearly not a bad thing for Foles to be under center. Over the last four weeks, the Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. It surely doesn’t help that they’ve played some good competition, but it just goes to show they’re not a matchup to fear, especially without Malcolm Butler. He wasn’t good but LeShaun Sims is worse. Conley will see a mix of both Sims and Adoree Jackson this week. Jackson has plenty of speed to keep up with the speedy Conley, while Sims isn’t as blessed with speed. Conley is on the WR4 radar this week, who does come with risk being the No. 2 option for a Nick Foles-led offense, but we can’t ignore his targets and production as of late.

Dede Westbrook: There were a lot of fantasy players who expected Westbrook to fare much better with Foles under center, but that wasn’t the case when he was third among receivers with six targets in Week 11. We’ve watched Foles throw 55 passes this year and just six of them have been directed at Westbrook, which is not great. He’s going to match-up with Logan Ryan this week, the Titans slot cornerback who’s coming off a game where he allowed two touchdowns in his coverage. Those touchdowns were to speed demons Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. If you didn’t know, Westbrook ran a 4.34-second 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day. Side note: I really wish Westbrook wasn’t boxed into the slot-only role. Westbrook already saw this matchup earlier this year where he saw nine targets, totaling five catches for 46 yards. It is a matchup he won last year, totaling 7/88/1 on 10 targets in Week 14 against them. Westbrook has quite a few different outcomes with the most likely one being in the high-end WR4 territory.

Corey Davis: Stay tuned for updates on him throughout the week, but it seems like he may be held out another week. *Update* Davis will play in this game after practicing all week. The matchup is still not very good for him, as the Jaguars have been stingy against wide receivers, and this figures to be a run-heavy gameplan for the Titans while at home. Consider Davis a middling WR4 who it’s best to wait and ensure he’s able to play a full game. 

A.J. Brown: Maybe the No. 1 receiver role in the Titans offense just isn’t as valuable? With Corey Davis out of the lineup, we watched Brown put up a Corey Davis-like performance against the Chiefs, totaling just one catch for 17 yards, his second worst game of the year. With Davis back, maybe he produces? We don’t even know if Davis will return. The issue is that this is the team he had his worst game of the year against when he tallied just one catch for four yards back in Week 3. That was with Jalen Ramsey on the team, which left A.J. Bouye on him. If Davis misses another game, you can bet Brown will see a lot of Bouye in coverage. Despite being without Ramsey for 70 percent of the season, the Jaguars have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. There’s been eight wide receivers who’ve finished with 15-plus PPR points and a top-25 option against them this year, though the important tidbit is that every one of those receivers saw a minimum of eight targets. Brown has seen that number just once this season. In fact, there’s been just two occasions where a Titans receiver has seen eight targets all year. Even if Davis is out again, Brown would be a middling WR4 play who’s playing for a team that should deploy a run-heavy attack.

Adam Humphries: With Corey Davis out of the lineup, it seemed like it would amount to more targets for the slot receiver, but not so much. He saw just one target, though he made it count, as he took it in for a 23-yard touchdown. He’s now totaled 47 yards or less in 8-of-10 games with the Titans, and that was his first touchdown. His biggest game with the team did come against the Jaguars back in Week 3 when he totaled 6/93/0 on nine targets. He hasn’t topped six targets in any other game. His targets in Tannehill starts have gone 4-6-4-1, so not much there especially when you consider this game should feature a lot of Derrick Henry. Outside of that one game against Humphries back in Week 3, the Jaguars have been a team to avoid with slot receviers. He’s not a recommended option this week.

TEs
Seth DeValve: He missed last week with an oblique injury that he suffered in practice, which led to Josh Oliver starting, but he was hurt in that game and has been placed on injured reserve. The other tight end is Ben Koyack, so the Jaguars are clearly not a team to be targeting with tight end streamers. No Jaguars tight end has seen more than five targets all season. Oddly enough, the biggest game any of them had this year was a two-catch, 18-yard performance with one touchdown against the Titans. Carry on. *Update* He’s been ruled out.

Delanie Walker or Jonnu Smith: It seems like Walker is going to return for this game after a three-week absence. He’s essentially missed the entire Ryan Tannehill experience, as he was knocked out of the Week 7 game right at the start. We have no idea what it’ll mean for his production, as Tannehill has targeted the tight ends on 33 of his 120 pass attempts, which is a solid 27.5 percent target share. Not that all of them went to one tight end, but it’s more about how often he’s targeted the position. Walker tallied 7/64/0 in the first meeting between these teams, seeing a team-high nine targets. Volume is what it’s taken to produce against the Jaguars, as they’ve allowed a healthy 1.98 PPR points per target (tied for fifth-most in NFL), but their opponents have averaged just 5.5 targets per game, limiting production. Coming off a multi-week injury, especially one that he’s had issues with in the past, it’s best to give him a week to get back into the swing of things. *Update* Walker has been deemed doubtful for this game, which almost certainly means he’ll be out. Smith takes his place on the field and in the ranks. 

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots

Total: 46.0
Line: NE by 6.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: There hasn’t been many better in fantasy this year, as Dak has been a top-13 quarterback in 9-of-10 games this year. For those who’ve been waiting for Prescott to “play a real defense” and the Patriots to “play a real offense,” you get your wish here. The only game Prescott played against a top-12 defense against quarterbacks this year was the Packers where he threw for 463 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. It’s true, Prescott has had an easy schedule to this point. The Patriots will put him to the test, as they’ve still yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than one touchdown, and even then, just four quarterbacks have thrown a single touchdown. Lamar Jackson was the only one who’s finished better than the QB20 against them. This is absolutely nuts. It’s not just touchdowns, either, as they’ve yet to allow a quarterback to average more than 7.09 yards per attempt (Lamar Jackson). Just one quarterback has topped 6.26 yards per attempt. But just like Prescott, the Patriots have had an easy schedule. The only top-12 quarterbacks they’ve played all year were Jackson and Josh Allen, two quarterbacks who are known for their rushing prowess. Prescott can run the ball, as evidenced by his 282-plus yards and six rushing touchdowns in each of his first three seasons, and that could be his saving grace. Still, it’s hard to say he’s a top-12 quarterback this week. He should be considered a high-end QB2 who presents plenty of risk and doesn’t have the best ceiling.

Tom Brady: He didn’t look very good last week against the Eagles and it’s starting to become a trend. He’s thrown just four touchdowns over his last five games combined, which spans over 215 pass attempts. That’s a 2.3 percent touchdown-rate. Now headed into a matchup with the Cowboys, who’ve allowed just a 3.2 percent touchdown-rate, which ranks eighth-best in the league, it doesn’t add up the way Brady owners would hope. They’ve been a tough defense to throw against over the last two years, as they’ve allowed just 33 passing touchdowns over the last 26 games, including just 11 this season. The massive volume that Brady’s throwing (40.2 attempts per game) should help overcome the fact that the Cowboys have allowed a measly 6.84 yards per attempt. Going back to the start of 2018, there have been just two quarterbacks who’ve posted more than 21 fantasy points against the Cowboys, and the only reason both of them got there was due to their rushing totals, something we don’t rely on from Brady. He shouldn’t be considered a must-play QB1 this week but rather someone who’s in the high-end QB2 conversation with a limited ceiling.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: He found the end zone for a second time late in the game last week, boosting his overall numbers, but it was not a great game for him. He’s now totaled 62 or less rushing yards in 5-of-10 games this year, including 47 or less in each of the last two. We had his massive usage in the passing game to rely on last year, but that’s not the case in 2019, as he’s totaled just six targets over the last three games combined. If there’s one area the Patriots have shown weakness, it’s against the run, as they’ve allowed two of the last three teams they’ve played to rush for 140-plus yards. Both Nick Chubb and Mark Ingram were able to rush for 115-plus yards while averaging over 6.5 yards per carry. Oddly enough, neither of them finished better than RB20, as they didn’t score. Gus Edwards has the lone running back touchdown against them this year (rushing or receiving) on an astonishing 214 touches. The next best team in the NFL has allowed a running back touchdown once every 76.0 touches. There is going to be regression to the mean at some point for them, and Elliott is the type of running back who gets enough work to make it happen. This is the first time in Elliott’s career he’s playing against the Patriots, so we don’t know if Bill Belichick will make stopping him a priority. He should be in lineups as an RB1 and he makes for a solid tournament play who’ll have lower ownership.

Sony Michel and James White: At some point, the Patriots need to lean a bit more on their run-game. It’s coming at some point (it always does), but having Brady drop back 45 times per game doesn’t make much sense. Unfortunately, giving Michel the ball hasn’t worked out, as his 3.3 yards per carry is only better than Le’Veon Bell‘s 3.2 yards per carry, among the 30 running backs who have at least 100 carries. We know he makes his money around the goal-line, which is where the Cowboys have struggled this year, allowing nine rushing touchdowns, which ranks as the fifth-most in the NFL. It’s not all volume, either, as the touchdowns have come once every 22.3 carries, which is also the fifth most often. The 4.17 yards per carry they’ve allowed is relatively average, but we’ve also seen just six running backs carry the ball at least 14 times against them. Each of those running backs finished as a top-30 option, including Bo Scarbrough last week, who didn’t catch a single pass. Michel has actually received two-plus targets in five of the last six games, which helps his floor a bit. He’s only received 14 carries over the last two weeks, which makes it worrisome to start him, but outside the top 20 running backs, you’re not finding much safety. He’s an upside RB3 this week despite his recent duds. White has yet to finish outside the top-30 running backs in any given week, but he’s also yet to finish inside the top-12 running backs, something we saw him do seven times in 2018. He’s actually averaged almost five carries per game over the last six games, which raises his floor a bit more than usual. With all the injuries they’ve had to receivers, White has seen seven-plus targets in all but three games, so when you combined that with his nearly 80 percent catch-rate, he’s almost locked into 4-6 receptions per game. The Cowboys have allowed three different running backs to tally six-plus receptions and 67-plus yards this year, though they’ve yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a running back. White should be in lineups as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 almost every week and this game is no different.

WRs
Amari Cooper: Last week was just the second time all season Cooper didn’t finish as a top-34 wide receiver, despite seeing double-digit targets just twice all season. Darius Slay was a tough matchup, which kind of primed him for the matchup against Stephon Gilmore this week. Based on quarterback rating in his coverage, he’s the fourth-toughest matchup among cornerbacks who’ve played at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps. Oddly enough, the No. 1 cornerback on that list is J.C. Jackson for the Patriots. As a team, they’ve allowed just a 48.1 percent catch-rate to wide receivers along with a ridiculous 5.03 yards per target, and one touchdown on 214 targets. It’s safe to say this is as bad of a matchup that you could ask for, as there’s been just one receiver who’s been able to cross the 15 PPR point threshold, and that was Golden Tate, who caught a 64-yard catch-and-run touchdown where most of his yardage came after the catch. Knowing Cooper is not a volume hog like some of the other top-tier receivers, it’ll be difficult for him to overcome this brutal matchup, though you also don’t want to bet against one of the best route runners in the game. You start him as a middling WR2 but lower your expectations this week.

Michael Gallup: He had it easy last week, as Cooper drew Darius Slay in coverage, allowing Gallup to go off for nine catches and 148 yards on 13 targets. Some may think Gallup has it easy again this week because Cooper will see Stephon Gilmore. Not exactly. Jason McCourty happens to be really good as well. He’s allowed just a 56.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage for 9.1 yards per reception and no touchdowns. You’d have to go back to Week 1 to find the last time he allowed more than 32 yards in his coverage. The Patriots have yet to allow a perimeter receiver finish better than WR29 against them, and that was John Brown, who’s been a high-end WR2 this season. He totaled just five catches for 69 scoreless yards, which is actually an accomplishment in this matchup. Gallup is likely to have a tough time finishing as a top-30 receiver, though you have to play him as a WR3 with his massive target share.

Randall Cobb: He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last three games and has posted back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown in each of them, leading many to believe he’s a must-play. In reality, we know who Cobb is. He’s the guy that saw in-between 3-6 targets over the first seven weeks of the season while finishing with 23-69 yards, which felt a lot like the Cole Beasley role in the offense. Some will think that because Cooper will be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore and that Gallup will be covered by Jason McCourty that it means Cobb should have a good game, but the part most have missed is that Jonathan Jones is the cornerback who’s covered the slot for the Patriots, and he’s been just as impressive. While defending the slot, he’s allowed 21-of-34 passing for 216 yards and one touchdown. Keep in mind that 64 yards and a touchdown of that came on one play where Golden Tate kind of tipped the ball up to keep it alive while Jones fell to the ground. It was good coverage, just one of those one-inch makes a difference things. Cobb’s target share puts him on the map, but he shouldn’t be considered anything more than a risky WR4 who could fall into his old target-share.

Julian Edelman: You’d have to go way back to Week 4 to find the last time Edelman finished outside the top 24 receivers for the week. You’d also have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time he saw less than 10 targets, which will surely help. The Cowboys are a team that’ll require plenty of volume to succeed, as there’s been just five receivers who’ve finished better than WR30 against them all season. Four of them saw eight-plus targets while the fifth one was Marvin Jones last week, who caught two touchdowns on five targets. They rank as the third-best team at defending fantasy receivers, allowing just 127.6 yards per game to them. It’s not even just limited targets, either, as the 1.56 PPR points per target ranks as the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL. Even going back to last year, there were just 11 receivers who finished top-24 against the Cowboys, so it’s clear the scheme is working. But who had the biggest game against them in that time? Golden Tate, another slot heavy receiver, when he totaled 8/132/2 last year. It’s important I note they kept Tate in check this year, though, as he totaled just 6/42/0 in Week 9. Edelman should be in lineups as a high-end WR2 but it’s not a matchup to attack in DFS.

Mohamed Sanu: Just when it seemed like we could trust Sanu as the No. 2 target for Brady, he gets four targets and finishes the game with just four receiving yards, destroying fantasy lineups. It appears the team will be without Phillip Dorsett this week, which should provide a boost to the target floor of Sanu, as N’Keal Harry played in just his first NFL game last week. Receivers have averaged just 17.1 targets per game against the Cowboys, and they’ve seen a healthy 34.7 pass attempts per game, so apparently teams have found it easier to target running backs and tight ends versus their zone-heavy scheme. There have been just eight receivers who’ve totaled 50-plus yards against them, so it’s not going to be easy for Sanu to find production. When you add in his performance last week, it’s tough to trust him as anything more than a middling WR4 in this game. *Update* Sanu is dealing with an ankle injury that may sideline him for a few weeks. He got in a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable, so there’s a chance he plays. 

TEs
Jason Witten: When searching for tight ends on the waiver wire, why do so many glance over Witten? He’s seen at least four targets in every game and has scored at least 7.0 PPR points in 8-of-10 games. That’s a solid floor, my friends. Do you know how many tight ends have done that this year? Five. Witten, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, and Zach Ertz. He obviously doesn’t offer the ceiling those guys do, but he’s had a stable floor. Will it remain intact against the Patriots? Well, tight end is the one position they don’t rank No. 1 against, so it’s possible. They’ve allowed just 9.8 PPR points per game to the position, which ranks as the eighth-lowest number in the league. They’re pretty average on a per-target basis, allowing 1.81 PPR points per target, which is actually the 12th most. There have only been three tight ends who’ve seen more than four targets against the Patriots, and two of them finished as top-nine options while the other one (Rhett Ellison) finished as the TE22 with 6.0 PPR points. Bottom line here is that Witten has been underrated as a streamer, but the ceiling isn’t particularly high here. He’s still in the streaming conversation if you just want someone who’s nearly a lock for seven-plus PPR points.

Ben Watson: Another veteran tight end who’s seeing solid targets in a good offense. He’s now seen at least four targets in 3-of-4 games, though he’s yet to top five targets in any of them. There have been five tight ends who’ve posted double-digit PPR games against the Cowboys while finishing as top-15 options. The issue is that we’ve seen them hold Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, Jared Cook, and Mike Gesicki to less than 6.0 PPR points, so they’ve been somewhat Jekyll and Hyde. Of the five tight end touchdowns they’ve allowed, four have come over the last five games, which could mean they’re trending in the wrong direction. They’ve allowed 5.9 receptions and 57.7 yards per game to the position, and we know Watson is the only one producing among the Patriots tight ends, so he’s not someone you should necessarily turn your back on for streaming purposes, especially with Dorsett likely out. He’s a middling TE2 who can be considered in a pinch.