New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Total: 40.5
Line: CHI by 6.0

QBs
Daniel Jones: It’s been feast or famine with Jones, who’s now thrown either one or four touchdown passes in his last seven games. No in-between. The teams he threw those four touchdowns against? The Lions and the Jets, two teams near the bottom of the pack against fantasy quarterbacks. Now on to play the Bears in a game his team-implied total is just 17.3 points, it may be one of the famine games. The Bears defense is not the reason their team is struggling, and it’s somewhat of a miracle they haven’t folded after being on the field constantly. Despite seeing the 11th-most pass attempts against them, they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’ve yet to allow a quarterback reach the 20-point barrier and have yet to allow more than two passing touchdowns in a game this year. In fact, there’s been just two games all year where a quarterback’s thrown more than one touchdown. Jared Goff was actually the first quarterback to average more than 7.7 yards per attempt against them, though much of that came on one pass, and he threw for just 173 yards. This is a game the Giants should focus on getting Barkley the ball, which keeps Jones at bay. He’s not a streaming option this week.

Mitch Trubisky: It wasn’t a great sight seeing someone you’re thinking about streaming get benched in the final three minutes of a game, but here we are. We’re put in a tough place here, as Matt Nagy has allowed Trubisky take advantage of good matchups on the schedule. He totaled 231/3 against the Redskins and 173/3 against the Lions two weeks ago. The Giants have allowed a massive 8.80 yards per attempt this year, which ranks as the second-worst mark only to the Bengals. There’s really no bad sign for streaming quarterbacks against them, as 8-of-10 quarterbacks have totaled at least 20 fantasy points against them, all finishing as top-10 options in that week. That’s despite just two quarterbacks totaling more than 35 pass attempts. The Giants did generate pressure their last two games on Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott, but on average, rank No. 27 in average pressure-rate. You know exactly what you’re getting into by streaming Trubisky, though I’d say there’s more good than bad in this matchup, making him a middling QB2 with upside for a top-12 performance. *Update* Trubisky is going to play in this game after practicing all week. 

RBs
Saquon Barkley: It’s been a miserable season for Barkley, who may have tried to come back from his ankle injury too soon. Since coming back, he’s totaled just 165 yards on 64 carries, which amounts to just 2.58 yards per carry. What’s happened since last year? He’s not breaking the long runs. He has just three runs of 15-plus yards this year, one every 33.0 carries. Last year, he broke a 15-yard run every 13.1 carries. The bye week should’ve certainly helped his ankle heal up a bit. A matchup with the Bears will certainly help, too. That sounds odd, but it’s true. Since losing Akiem Hicks, the Bears defense has allowed 628 rushing yards on 157 attempts (4.0 yards per carry) with nine rushing touchdowns over six games. While the yards per carry may not seem like a big number, here’s what they allowed the previous 20 games with Hicks: 1,331 yards on 379 carries (3.51 yards per carry) with five rushing touchdowns. They’re being worn down and it’s allowed 10 running backs to finish with top-24 performances against them. They’ve only allowed two rushing plays over 20-plus yards (tied for best in the NFL), so we may not see a massive performance by Barkley here, but he should be able to get plenty of volume en route to a solid RB1 day.

David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen: The Bears clearly didn’t want to give Montgomery too much work last week while playing through an ankle injury he sustained in practice last week, though he still netted 15 touches and came out of the game setback-free. The Giants have been extremely hit-or-miss against running backs this year, holding three of their last seven opponents to less than 60 yards rushing, but allowing six of their last nine opponents to finish with 108-plus yards. The teams who struggled: Jets, Lions, and Redskins. The teams who succeeded: Cowboys, Cardinals, Patriots, Vikings, Bucs, and Bills. There’s a mix of some bad teams in the teams that succeeded, while the teams that struggled are not surprising. The Bears have had some success, as evidenced by the three games Montgomery has finished as a top-18 running back. The issue with trusting him more than a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 is due to the fact that he’s topped 67 rushing yards just once and the Bears don’t have very many scoring opportunities, though oddsmakers believe they’ll score over 23 points in this game. At home as a six-point favorite is about as good of a situation as Montgomery could hope for, so get him into lineups. Cohen was the beneficiary of Montgomery’s lightened workload in Week 11 and he looked good, totaling 74 yards and a touchdown on 14 touches. The matchup with the Giants does not favor his skillset, however, as they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest amount of fantasy points through the air to running backs and are one of just five teams who’ve still yet to allow a receiving touchdown to them. They have allowed 7.56 yards per target (5th-most) but teams haven’t needed to dump the ball down with so many positive matchups in the secondary. With no tight ends and the need for confidence-building for their quarterback, the Bears are likely to target him more than most, keeping him in the RB3 conversation.

WRs
Golden Tate: He’s now played in six games with the Giants and is averaging 8.3 targets per game, with a minimum of six targets every week. That’s elite volume for someone who’s traditionally played as a WR3. He’s also tallied at least 80 yards in four of the five games without Sterling Shepard in the lineup. The emergence of Slayton can cloud things, especially since the bye week should allow them to involve him more. The Bears have Buster Skrine in the slot, a player who’s been a pleasant surprise for them. He’s allowed just 34-of-53 passing for 323 yards in his coverage with two touchdowns, and that includes a matchup with Cooper Kupp last week, who finished with 3/53/0. He’s done well, holding Keenan Allen to 7/53/0 on 10 targets, and Adam Thielen to 2/6/0 on six targets. Tate is a monster after the catch, so it’s worth noting 124-of-323 yards have come after the catch in Skrine’s coverage. With Engram still out, Tate should eat up targets over the middle of the field, though it does appear that Sterling Shepard may return for this game. Tate should be played as a WR3 even in a tough matchup with how well he’s performed/how many targets he’s received.

Darius Slayton: He’s now scored multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games, but the targets have been maddeningly inconsistent. Over the last five weeks with Shepard out, we’ve seen his target totals go 8-2-5-4-14. As you can see, there’s no real trend there. Will the bye week help his cause to be a bit more consistently involved? It seems like Shepard may return for this game, which would decimate any floor that we could project for Slayton. The Bears aren’t a great matchup regardless, as there’s been just eight receivers all season who’ve finished as top-36 options. Every receiver who did finish in that territory finished with a minimum of six targets, something that’s impossible to project for Slayton. He’s just a touchdown-hopeful WR5 in this game.

Allen Robinson: We knew it would be a tough matchup for Robinson last week with Jalen Ramsey, but it’s frustrating when you see him clearly have two steps on him up the sideline and Trubisky underthrows him by a few yards. This has happened all year, yet Robinson is still on pace for over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. The Giants secondary is the most giving there is, allowing a massive 2.15 PPR points per target to wide receivers. Think about that for a minute. Even if the average receiver (Robinson is far from average) sees six targets, they’d total 12.9 PPR points, which would amount to a top-30 performance most weeks. Robinson has seen at least five targets in every game and is averaging 8.6 per game. Will the Giants use Janoris Jenkins in a shadow role? Potentially, though Robinson goes into the slot about 35 percent of the time, somewhere Jenkins doesn’t travel. Jenkins is easily the best cornerback on the team, though his shutdown days may be over. We’ve seen Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Adam Thielen, and Amari Cooper all post 100-yard games against this defense. The only receiver who saw eight-plus targets – like Robinson is averaging – and didn’t finish with at least 14.2 PPR points was Randall Cobb. Get him back into lineups as a high-end WR2 for this contest.

Taylor Gabriel: With Jalen Ramsey following Robinson around last week, Gabriel received a massive 14 targets. They may have only netted 7/57/0 but knowing the Giants could use Janoris Jenkins in a shadow role, we could see the Bears target Gabriel fairly heavy this week. DeAndre Baker is the other perimeter cornerback for the Giants, a rookie who’s been continually burned in coverage, allowing a massive 68.6 percent catch-rate, 18.0 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 8.5 targets in his coverage. He’s the best matchup in all of football right now, as evidenced by the 149.9 passer rating when targeted. If you’re looking for a hail-mary WR4/5 who’s available in most leagues, Gabriel might be your guy.

Anthony Miller: He’s coming off a game in which he saw a career-high 11 targets against the Rams. He totaled six catches for 54 yards, and it was the fourth time in the last six games he’s totaled at least 52 yards. The issue is the seven yards in the other two games combined. The Giants have been a matchup to attack if you have a receiver who’s getting volume, though it’s impossible to say Miller is that guy considering he saw a combined six targets in the three games prior to last week. Grant Haley is the slot cornerback for them, and he’s allowed a ridiculous 86.5 percent catch-rate and 10.4 yards per target in his coverage. We’ve watched 16 wide receivers post top-40 numbers against the Giants, so Miller is a definite possibility, but betting anything on this Bears offense right now outside of Robinson just feels too risky. He’s a WR5 play in this great matchup.

TEs
Rhett Ellison: It appears the Giants will be without Evan Engram for another week, so Ellison steps in as the starter. Unfortunately, the Bears have not been a matchup to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just two tight ends to top 49 yards since the start of the 2018 season, a span of 26 games. They have, however, allowed eight different tight ends finish in-between 30-47 yards this year, which does provide a somewhat stable floor. It’s the reason they’ve allowed the eighth-most points to the tight end position. He’s not a sexy start by any means, and it’s very unlikely he winds up with more than 10.0 PPR points, but he should provide a decent floor of 5.0 PPR points in an emergency. *Update* Ellison has been ruled out due to a concussion that he hasn’t been cleared from. Kaden Smith is his backup. 

Ben Braunecker: The Bears placed Trey Burton on injured reserve last week while having Adam Shaheen inactive. Despite that and the fact that the Bears threw the ball 47 times, Braunecker saw just three targets against the Rams. The Giants have 99 problems, but the tight end position hasn’t been one. Jason Witten was the only tight end who accumulated more than three receptions against them, though he’s also the only tight end who’s seen more than four targets. Even when targeted, tight ends average a mediocre 7.61 yards per target. Even if the Bears were playing the Cardinals, it’d be difficult to trust Braunecker. He’s not on the streaming radar.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Total: 47.0
Line: NO by 9.5

QBs
Kyle Allen: Had Cam Newton not been placed on injured reserve, Allen would’ve absolutely been benched during last week’s blowout loss to the Falcons where he threw four interceptions and not a single touchdown. He has not been the answer to much of anything over the last four weeks, as he’s completed just 58.6 percent of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Saints played a great game defensively last week despite being without their top cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Since Week 3, they’ve been a matchup to avoid with quarterbacks, as there’s been no quarterback to average more than 7.56 yards per attempt, and just one to average more than 6.76 yards per attempt. That’s huge because there’s no way the Panthers are going to have Allen drop back to pass 50 times in this game after the performance he just had. No quarterback has totaled more than 18 fantasy points against the Saints in any of their last seven games, which included matchups with Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston (twice), Kyler Murray, and Matt Ryan. You’re not going to play Allen this week.

Drew Brees: It was good to see Brees get back on track after a dud against the Falcons. They now return home to play the Panthers, a matchup that hasn’t been a smash-spot for many quarterbacks. There have been just three quarterbacks who’ve been able to throw multiple touchdowns against them, and two of those quarterbacks threw the ball 43-plus times. It’s also not a matchup Brees fared very well in 2018, either. He played them in Week 15, completing 23-of-35 passes for 203 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. The reason not many quarterbacks have had big fantasy numbers against the Panthers is likely due to the fact that their run defense is so bad. They’ve allowed 27.9 PPR points per game to running backs and just 14.7 points per game to quarterbacks. That 13.2-point gap is the third-largest in football. But even on a per-pass-attempt basis, the Panthers allow the sixth-lowest number in the league. Brees will likely deliver a decent floor in this game but he’s not a must-play by any means, as there’s been just two quarterbacks who’ve finished top-15 against them this year. Even then, the two who did finished with at least 4.2 fantasy points on the ground, something Brees doesn’t offer. He’s outside the top 12 options this week.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: It’s kind of funny that despite not finding the end zone, McCaffrey still outscored all running backs in Week 11. He’s now finished as a top-eight running back in 9-of-10 games this year, and even going back to last year, he’s been the RB9 or better in 17 of his last 19 games. He’s breaking fantasy football. This will be one of his biggest tests of the year, however, as the Saints are as good of a run defense that you’ll see. After allowing just 3.22 yards per carry last year, they’ve allowed just 3.69 yards per carry this year, and that mark is closer to 3.22 if you removed the week they were without David Onyemata and Sheldon Rankins. No running back has rushed for more than 83 yards against them this year, and they’ve allowed just three rushing touchdowns on 167 carries. The 61.6 rushing yards per game they’re allowing to running backs is the lowest mark in the league, while only the Patriots have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns. It was a similar defense last year when McCaffrey totaled 53 yards on 15 carries with eight catches for 67 yards en route to the RB8 finish. If there were one week to potentially fade McCaffrey in DFS, this would be it. While I’ll likely regret saying that, it just feels there are safer options for much less money.

Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray: It felt like the Saints offense of old last week, and though it was a tough matchup, Kamara gutted out 122 total yards against the Bucs stingy defense. In the two games since returning from injury, the backfield touch split has gone Kamara 35 – Murray 19, a 65/35 split, though it’s much closer when it comes to carries. The Panthers have been a great matchup for running backs, as we’ve watched them allow six top-12 performances, including three inside the top five. Sure, Brian Hill may not have gotten it done, but after allowing a touchdown to Qadree Ollison, the Panthers have now allowed a rushing touchdown once every 14.7 carries while no other team has allowed one more often than every 20.3 carries. When you take a high-scoring team like the Saints at home and put them against a team that’s struggling, big things are bound to happen. The 1.01 PPR points per opportunity they allow is the second-highest number in the league, behind only the Lions. Here’s the catch between the two running backs, though. Kamara has 17 carries over the last two weeks while Murray has 15, so it’s close to an even split there with Kamara getting almost the entire receiving workload. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs. It’s on the ground they’ve been hammered, as they’ve allowed 15.5 more fantasy points than any other team on the ground. Kamara should be played as an RB1 but Murray deserves a start as an RB3 as well who might have more upside than most realize.

WRs
D.J. Moore: If only Kyle Allen had been competent in last week’s matchup, Moore’s game could’ve been so much more. He still saw 15 targets and was a top-15 PPR receiver, but oh what could’ve been. He’s now seen eight-plus targets in six straight games, including 11 or more in each of the last three games. You’re playing him no matter the matchup. Fortunately, he is likely to catch a break in this game, as the Saints are likely to be without Marshon Lattimore, their No. 1 cornerback who shadows opposing No. 1 receivers. The Saints trot out Eli Apple and P.J. Williams in his absence, which is obviously good news for Moore. Those two have combined to allow 48-of-78 passing for 672 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage, and keep in mind that’s not while covering the opposing No. 1 most of the time. Receivers are averaging 21.4 targets per game against the Saints, which is great considering the Panthers targets are very top-heavy to Moore and Samuel. How much of a difference does Lattimore make? Well, in the matchup with Lattimore last year, Moore tallied just 2/12/0. In the second matchup where he played just half the game, Moore tallied 4/81/0. Keep Moore going as a WR2 this week who’s bound to find the end zone at some point, as his draught is now at 68 targets.

Curtis Samuel: Most don’t realize Samuel ranks 21st among wide receivers with 75 targets, as his production (outside the top-30 in fantasy production) hasn’t quite caught up with the volume. What’s even crazier is that he ranks sixth in air yards among receivers. Those ahead of him are Mike Evans, John Brown, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, and Keenan Allen. That’s great territory to be in. It’s only a matter of time before that explosion comes, though Kyle Allen‘s inconsistency isn’t going to help. The Saints play in a dome, which should only help his track speed. He’s only played three games indoors over his career, so the results can be skewed, but he’s averaged 18.1 yards per reception in those games compared to 11.2 outdoors. It might actually help him if Marshon Lattimore is able to suit up for this game, as that would severely hamper Moore’s production. But even if Lattimore sits, Samuel would see Eli Apple most of the day, the cornerback who allowed Samuel a 53-yard touchdown catch in New Orleans last year. With the opportunity Samuel is getting, you have to keep plugging him in as a WR3. He makes for a great tournament play.

Michael Thomas: His 94 receptions through 10 games are the most in NFL history, highlighting just how special he’s been. No other receiver has more than 75 receptions this year. His worst performance of the year was five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. Geez. The Panthers have oddly been a bad matchup for quarterbacks but a good one for wide receivers, as they’ve allowed 161 receptions (most in the league) to them but have allowed just six touchdowns (4th-fewest). So, in PPR formats, they’ve allowed a massive 39.6 points per game. The crazy part is that they’ve been above average in nearly every major statistical category, but the volume has just been too much. The 25.0 targets per game they’ve seen out of receivers is also the most in the NFL. There have been 13 receivers who’ve seen eight-plus targets against the Panthers. Even though it’s likely to be a run-heavy game for the Saints, Thomas will get his; just ask the five receivers who’ve gone over 100 yards against the Panthers.

Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith: What a disappointing game for Smith last week as the stars aligned for him to have a sneaky big game, but the lack of competence out of the Bucs offense limited the Saints pass attempts. He’s playing more snaps than Ginn, who did catch a touchdown on his four targets in that game. You could say that we should’ve known better considering Smith has seen just eight targets on the year, but playing snaps typically amounts to production in this offense. Ginn has seen just 40 targets through 10 games, so it’s not like he’s someone we should be relying on, either. The Panthers do face the most wide receiver targets per game (25.0), so it makes sense to glance it over. There have been 16 wide receivers who’ve been able to finish with double-digit PPR points against the Panthers, but the important note is that just one has done so with less than five targets, a number Smith clearly hasn’t seen all season, while Ginn hasn’t caught more than two passes since back in Week 4. You can find better options than these two, who are likely touchdown-or-bust.

TEs
Greg Olsen: He’s been really good over the last two weeks, hauling in 13-of-15 targets for 155 yards, though he hasn’t scored outside of the Cardinals game back in Week 3. That seems to be a theme with non-McCaffrey Panthers skill-position players. The Saints have not been a matchup to target with tight ends over the last two years, as they allowed the eighth-fewest points to them in 2018 and the 10th-fewest in 2019. We did see a glitch in the matrix last week, however, as Cameron Brate racked-up 10 catches for 73 yards against them. Is this a product of them missing Marshon Lattimore? Does it have a butterfly effect on everyone else? The Panthers are going to struggle to move the ball on the ground in New Orleans, so when you combine that with his 21 targets over the last three weeks, it’s tough to say he doesn’t belong in the low-end TE1 conversation, though he has a lower ceiling than most in that range.

Jared Cook: Thank goodness for Cook’s touchdown last week, as his two targets were much less than we anticipated. He finished with less than 42 yards for the seventh time in eight games, which is cause for concern when projecting his floor. The Panthers have not been a matchup to aggressively target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just one of them to total more than four catches. Just 11.3 percent of the production that the Panthers allow to running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends goes to the tight end position, which is the second-lowest number behind only the Bills. It surely helps that they’ve only seen 4.5 targets per game, as they’ve actually been pretty bad on a per-target basis. The 73.3 percent completion-rate ranks as the fourth-highest mark in football, while the 9.07 yards per target ranks as the third-highest mark. Can we guarantee volume for Cook? Not really considering he’s received three or less targets in 4-of-8 games, but he does play with one of (if not) the most efficient quarterbacks of all-time. Cook remains in the low-end TE1 conversation with Brees under center.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 48.0
Line: PHI by 2.0

QBs
Russell Wilson: The last time we saw Wilson, he was cementing his name in the MVP conversation while carrying the Seahawks to victory over the undefeated 49ers. Wilson has yet to have a game with less than 14.3 fantasy points, but he’s also been held to 16.6 or less in 5-of-10 games, so the ceiling has been somewhat lackluster, though not by his doing but rather the limited passing volume. If the Seahawks know what’s best for them, he’ll have a few extra pass attempts against the Eagles. They’ve been a brick wall for running backs to run into, allowing just 3.36 yards per carry on the year. They haven’t been a brutal pass defense like it seemed they might be at the start of the season, as they’ve allowed just 16.3 points per game to the position despite dealing with a variety of injuries. They’ve now held each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to less than 240 yards passing, which includes matchups with Dak Prescott and Tom Brady. We have seen three different quarterbacks rush for at least 45 yards or a touchdown, which helps us feel a bit better about Wilson’s floor. The implied total of 48.0 is also something that bodes well for his fantasy prospects. Quarterbacks have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game against the Eagles, and have thrown the ball on 62.6 percent of plays, which is the eighth-highest mark in the league. If Wilson throws more than 30 times, you’re almost required to start Wilson. I mean, despite totaling the 13th-most pass attempts, he ranks as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback. He should be considered a middling QB1 this week.

Carson Wentz: It just feels like Wentz is cursed with pass-catchers right now, as he lost DeSean Jackson early in the year and then was without Jeffery in the toughest matchup of the year. At least he gets to come back with a matchup at home against the Seahawks, a team who’s allowed everyone but Jimmy Garoppolo and Mason Rudolph finish with 16-plus fantasy points. Quarterbacks have been getting in done in a variety of ways, too, as they’ve still yet to allow a quarterback throw for three touchdowns. We have seen four different quarterbacks (Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff, and Jameis Winston) throw for at least 335 yards, but the 3.06 percent touchdown-rate they’ve allowed is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. We’ve talked about it before, but the list of quarterbacks who’ve played the Seahawks bears repeating: Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater, Mason Rudolph, Jimmy Garoppolo, Lamar Jackson, and Jameis Winston. There are a few decent ones in there, but it’s not a gauntlet of a schedule, yet they’ve allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This comes down to his pass-catchers getting on the field. If Jeffery can return, it’ll only help, but Wentz should be in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 conversation this week. *Update* With so many injuries to the pass-catchers, we must downgrade Wentz a bit this week. It’s a matchup to take advantage of, but he may be without all three starting wide receivers. He’s moving more towards the middling QB2 pack. 

RBs
Chris Carson: He’s been one of the most stable options in fantasy this year, largely in part to the 18-plus opportunities he’s had in 9-of-10 games. Based on the touches he’s received this year and where they’ve taken place, he has the fifth-most expected fantasy points among running backs. The craziest part about it all is that there’s room for improvement in the stat sheet, as he has just four rushing touchdowns through 10 games. Against the Eagles, that may somewhat difficult to build on. They’ve been about as tough as a matchup as anyone this year, allowing just 3.36 yards per carry. In fact, there’s been just one starting running back who’s topped 43 rushing yards against them this year. Keep in mind there’s been 10 running backs who’ve totaled double-digit carries, including five with 14 or more carries. Because of that, there’s been just two running backs who’ve finished better than the RB15 against them. Ezekiel Elliott, who totaled 28 touches and scored a touchdown, and David Montgomery, who totaled 17 touches and found the end zone twice. Carson has had trouble himself finding the end zone, as he has just four rushing touchdowns on 200 carries this season. This game does have a high implied total, which does bode well for a workhorse running back like Carson who’s totaled at least 20 carries in six of the last seven games. You’re playing him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 in season-long leagues, but you don’t need to attack him in cash games.

Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders: We don’t know what Howard’s status is as of this time, but knowing they had to sign Jay Ajayi, it likely isn’t a short-term injury. It’s been described as a stinger, but he never got cleared for contact last week. The Seahawks opponents have not racked up the touches against them, as running backs have averaged just 24.0 touches per game, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL. The 185 carries they’ve faced have netted 748 yards, which is awfully similar to the 756 yards the Patriots have allowed on 175 carries. The big difference? The Seahawks have allowed nine rushing touchdowns while the Patriots allowed just one. Nick Chubb was the only running back who’s totaled more than 69 yards on the ground against them, as he and Alvin Kamara were the only starters with at least 10 carries who were able to finish averaging more than 3.83 yards per carry. None of the Eagles running backs have yet to have a game with more than 96 rushing yards, and there’s been just three individual performances over 75 rushing yards. Knowing the lack of touches available against the Seahawks, it doesn’t bode well for a timeshare. If Howard plays, he’s the one who’d get the goal-line carries, which makes him the most valuable in a game they’re projected for 25.0 points. Still, he’d be a boom-or-bust RB3 who’s touchdown-dependent. The Seahawks have allowed solid efficiency through the air to running backs, as the 6.72 yards per target they’ve allowed ranks as the 10th-highest number in the league. Sanders has totaled at least three targets in each of the last six games, so he should provide at least a decent RB4 floor in this game. If Howard has to miss another week, Sanders should net 15 touches and be played as a low-end RB2 who’d be in less of a timeshare. Don’t let a bad game against the Patriots ruin his reputation. *Update* Howard still hasn’t been cleared for contact, though he’s listed as questionable. This will be a Sanders-led backfield mixed in with some Boston Scott and Jay Ajayi. The only one who has appeal is Sanders. The others are just too risky right now.  

WRs
Tyler Lockett: Based on early reports, it seems like Lockett will be good to go for this game. He was hospitalized after the 49ers game due to swelling in his leg, though all appears to be good now. Whew. Despite ranking 18th in targets among receivers, Lockett currently sits as the No. 6 receiver in PPR leagues. He’s caught a remarkable 81.6 percent of his targets, which is Michael Thomas-esque. The Eagles haven’t been a particularly giving team to slot receivers this year, as they’ve yet to allow one more than five catches or 53 yards, including Julian Edelman last week. It’s been somewhat boom-or-bust for every receiver against the Eagles, as they’ve allowed seven 100-plus yard receivers, but have held every other receiver to 69 yards or less, no in-between. Crazy, right? They’ve seen 72 slot targets among their cornerbacks and safeties this year, allowing just one touchdown on them. They’ve also allowed just 437 yards on them, or 6.07 yards per target. You’re playing Lockett every week in season-long leagues, but this is not a matchup to target in DFS cash games.

D.K. Metcalf: The Seahawks seemed to be easing Gordon into the lineup against the 49ers, and because of that, Metcalf saw a career-high 10 targets. He’s now seen at least nine targets in three of the last four games, and when tied to Wilson, that’s going to produce massive numbers. Prior to their bye week, Metcalf was sitting as the No. 20 receiver in fantasy football. Will Gordon start to steal targets/upside from Metcalf? It seems somewhat likely. The Eagles dealt with a variety of injuries in their secondary but are at full health now. Metcalf will see a lot of veteran Ronald Darby in this game, a cornerback who can be beat in coverage, though he has not allowed a reception of more than 34 yards in his coverage over the last two years, which is covers a span of 113 targets. Metcalf has the deepest average depth of target on the Seahawks (12.7 yards) and relies on the deep ball for much of his production, so this matchup could be a slight letdown. It is worth noting he was targeted on a variety of routes against the 49ers, so it’s possible they’re using him in a more versatile role. With his target share from Wilson, he should be considered a WR3 who’s a bit more boom-or-bust than others in that range, but he’s a tough one to bench knowing he’s totaled at least 11.0 PPR points in 7-of-10 games.

Josh Gordon: He played just 27-of-73 snaps in his Seahawks debut, but now with the bye week coming at the perfect time, he should become more of a permanent player in the offense. He caught both targets Wilson threw to him for 27 yards, including one that was thrown a bit low, but he plucked it with his hands, which would only help him gain more of Wilson’s trust. He’s going to see a lot of Jalen Mills in coverage this week, a cornerback who’s been extremely hit-or-miss throughout his career. He’s been very good since returning from the IR in Week 7, allowing 11-of-23 passing for 111 yards and no touchdowns while intercepting one pass. It’s a small sample size so we can’t jump to conclusions, but it’s likely the best matchup on the field for the Seahawks, as they’ve defended the slot extremely well, while Ronald Darby should be able to contain Metcalf. If we can get more routes for Gordon (ran 22 in Week 10), he should be someone who can produce. He comes with the risk of being eased into the offense, but he should be considered a upside WR4 who may be worth the risk.

Alshon Jeffery: He didn’t practice at all last week, so it’s no guarantee he’s back for this game. In fact, it’d be wise to expect him to miss it. *Update* Jeffery got in limited practices all week and is listed as questionable. They may put him out there as a decoy with how many pass-catchers they’re without. If Jeffery does suit up, he should be considered a risky WR3/4 option. 

Nelson Agholor: With both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup, Agholor saw nine targets against the Patriots. It was a brutal matchup, so to see him walk away with 4/40/0 isn’t the worst-case scenario. The rest of the receivers saw eight targets combined. The Seahawks aren’t nearly as stingy as the Patriots pass defense. In fact, they allow nearly 15 more PPR points per game to the position. Despite allowing the ninth-fewest touchdowns (7) to the wide receiver position, they’ve allowed the 12th-most points. Much of it comes from volume, as receivers have averaged 23.5 targets per game against them. With the way the Eagles receiver room looks, Agholor could net 10 targets in this game. Agholor played all over the formation with Jeffery out, including running 36.2 percent of his routes from the slot. The Seahawks aren’t going to shadow anyone but rather stick to their zone scheme that has allowed 16 wide receivers to finish as top-36 options. There’s certainly risk with how little he’s performed this year, but Agholor has the looks of someone who’s startable as a low-end WR3/high-end WR4. *Update* Agholor did not practice all week with an ankle injury. Eagles players typically do not play when that happens, though they’ve listed him as questionable. He’s also lost some appeal with Jeffery returning to practice, making him just a middling WR4 even if he does play.

TEs
Jacob Hollister: He’s been the starter for four weeks now and has totaled at least six targets in three of them. This is obviously a great thing for him, as six targets from Russell Wilson is much different than six targets from average quarterbacks. Hollister’s taken full advantage, racking up 12 receptions for 99 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games. Now onto a matchup with the Eagles, who’ve been a matchup to try and avoid with tight ends. The same was said about the 49ers, who had allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends when Hollister tallied 8/62/1 on 10 targets. The sample size of the Eagles defense is large under Jim Schwartz’s scheme, as he’s been there since Doug Pederson arrived. His scheme has allowed just 12 tight end touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season, which spans over 58 games. Just one tight end has totaled more than four receptions against them this year, with just two tight ends scoring more than 8.2 PPR points. We’ve watched Will Dissly and Hollister produce in bad matchups this year, so maybe we just don’t count them out anymore? He’s going to be in the streaming conversation every week, though this matchup has been a tough one for a lot of tight ends.

Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: The duo combined for 17 targets in the Week 11 game without Alshon Jeffery, a number they’re likely to hit again should Jeffery miss another week. The Seahawks haven’t been a bad matchup for tight ends, either. They’ve allowed a solid 61.5 yards per game to the position, including 7.98 yards per target, which is more than the league average. There have been five different tight ends who’ve caught four or more passes against them, including three tight ends (Vance McDonald, Gerald Everett, and Austin Hooper) to rack up six-plus receptions. The only name-brand tight end who didn’t perform was Mark Andrews who totaled 2/39/0 on eight targets, but you must know that he dropped three passes in that game. Ertz’s efficiency has actually dropped with Jeffery out of the lineup, but his targets keep him in elite TE1 territory. Goedert obviously benefits if Jeffery is out, but he’s averaged 5.6 targets over the last five games, a sample that obviously had Jeffery in it for four of the games. During that time, Goedert has seen four red zone targets compared to just two for Ertz. Goedert should be considered a low-end TE1 and someone who gets a much higher floor with Jeffery out of the lineup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Total: 52.5
Line: ATL by 4.5

QBs
Jameis Winston: You have to live with the classic Winston games from time-to-time, as he leads the NFL with 18 interceptions. Nobody else has more than 12 of them. That doesn’t matter all that much to us in fantasy, as he’s now finished as a top-16 quarterback in each of the last eight weeks. Yep, you read that right. It helps that he’s on pace for 650 pass attempts, something that should continue with how bad their defense has played. The Falcons have put together back-to-back dominant performances against the Saints and Panthers, who both happen to be divisional rivals. The Bucs are also in that division, though oddsmakers don’t believe the Falcons have suddenly become a top-tier defense, and neither do I. They may be without edge rusher Adrian Clayborn this week, as he was forced to leave the game against the Panthers with a groin injury. Knowing he’s the pass-rusher who’s generated the most quarterback hurries on the Falcons roster, it’s one to monitor. The Falcons have allowed 63-of-95 passing (66.3 percent) for 612 yards (6.44 yards per attempt) over the last two weeks, which isn’t too bad, but they’ve allowed no touchdown passes in those games, which has crushed the production of Drew Brees and Kyle Allen. There hasn’t been a game this year Winston has left touchdown-less, though he hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns since back in Week 4. This all comes down to which version of the Jekyll and Hyde Falcons defense we get. Knowing how high Winston’s floor has been, you should be willing to bet on him as a low-end QB1 this week with top-three upside should the Falcons revert to their old selves.

Matt Ryan: The Falcons defense stepping up the last few weeks has actually hurt Ryan’s fantasy prospects, as he’s totaled just 66 pass attempts over the two games combined. Will they revert to their old ways and allow points to the Bucs? If so, Ryan should have a field day against this Bucs secondary. They have allowed a massive 113.7 fantasy points per game to opposing offenses over the last four weeks, the most in the NFL. The craziest part? Just 12.9 percent of that production (11.0 points per game) has gone to the running back position. Meanwhile, wide receivers have averaged 55.9 points per game. There are just two other teams who’ve allowed more than 42.7 points per game. This game obviously flows through Ryan and the receivers. The only quarterbacks who failed to finish as a top-14 quarterback against them were Jimmy Garoppolo and Cam Newton, way back in the first two weeks of the season. If you watched those games, you know that both quarterbacks missed plenty of throws in those games. Since that time, no quarterback has finished with less than two passing touchdowns, including 5-of-8 quarterbacks who threw three or more touchdowns. Ryan is an elite QB1 who you’re hoping for his defense to return to it’s ever-giving self.

RBs
Ronald Jones: It’s hard to take much away from the Week 11 game where the Bucs ran the ball just six times. The good news is that Peyton Barber saw no carries in the game. The bad news is that it was Jones’ second-worst fantasy outing of the season. He has seen 12 targets over the last two weeks, which is also good news for his role in negative gamescripts. The Falcons haven’t been a team to attack on the ground, allowing just 3.98 yards per carry on the year, and just eight top-24 performances to the position through 10 games. Five of those eight running backs totaled at least 13.0 PPR points through the air, something Jones has hit just once this year. In fact, he’s topped 5.1 points through the air just once. With the lack of efficiency against the Falcons and lack of volume for Jones, he’s just a middling RB3 for this game unless he suddenly sees eight targets again, which is something you cannot predict or rely on.

Brian Hill: What a lackluster performance out of Hill, who had all the opportunity he could ask for against the Panthers but failed to capitalize. The touch split between the running backs went Hill 16, Qadree Ollison 4, and Kenjon Barner 2 with Devonta Freeman out of the lineup. Despite the large touch count in a plus-matchup, Hill totaled just 38 total yards. He did score late in the game, but the touchdown was called back due to a holding penalty. This matchup against the Bucs is the polar opposite, as they’ve allowed just 0.66 PPR points per opportunity to running backs this year despite having the toughest schedule in all of football. They’ve allowed just 3.41 yards per carry (3rd-lowest) and 4.47 yards per target (2nd-lowest) to running backs, which leaves you hoping for a touchdown. They’ve allowed just four touchdowns to running backs all season, the third-lowest mark in the league. There’s not much to like here outside of his workload, which could be in jeopardy with his lack of efficiency last week. He should be considered a middling RB3 who comes with a bit of risk and lack of upside.

WRs
Mike Evans: It was supposed to be a smash spot for Evans when the Saints were without Marshon Lattimore, but instead, we got a four-catch, 69-yard performance. We know it was just a bad game overall for Winston, so shake it off. The Bucs are on pace for 650 pass attempts, so when you see a 36 percent share of air yards for Evans, you have to wonder just how much opportunity he gets, right? His 1,510 air yards are the most in football, while the closest receiver (John Brown) has 1,192. That’s 21.1 percent higher. WHAT. The Falcons don’t have a cornerback to shadow him and will rely on the combination of Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver to defend him. That duo has combined to allow 61-of-90 passing for 883 yards and eight touchdowns in their coverage. The last time he saw this duo, he caught 6-of-8 targets for 106 yards and two touchdowns. There is no reason to sit Evans against a team that’s allowed 11 receivers to post top-24 performances against them, including six 20-point performances.

Chris Godwin: After posting top-six numbers in four of the first six games, Godwin has come back down to earth over the last month, finishing as the WR41, WR24, WR25, and WR22 over that time. He’s still seen at least six targets in every game, but it seems he’s settled in as a low-end WR2 who can be more in good matchups. The Falcons would constitute as one of those good matchups. As a team, they’ve allowed 74-of-96 passing for 715 yards and seven touchdowns in the slot, which is where Godwin runs 65 percent of his routes. That’s obviously a good thing, though Evans’ matchup is just as good on the perimeter. There should be room for both receivers to perform in this matchup, as the Falcons have allowed just over 39.0 PPR points per game to wide receivers, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league. Godwin should be played as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for this contest.

Julio Jones: There hasn’t been many receivers who can claim they’ve seen at least seven targets in every game, but Jones is one of them. The others are Deandre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. The Bucs have allowed more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than anyone else and it’s not only due to volume. They’ve allowed 46.7 PPR points per game, which is 6.5 more than the closest team (Jets). It’s been a combination of everything, as receivers have averaged 24.0 targets (2nd-most), 15.0 reception (4th-most), 202.2 yards (most in NFL), and 1.7 touchdowns (most in NFL). They don’t have a shadow cornerback who’ll follow Jones, so he’ll see a mixture of everyone. There have been 10 different receivers who’ve totaled at least 17 PPR points and finished as a top-15 receiver against the Bucs this year. Get Jones into lineups as an elite WR1.

Calvin Ridley: It was good to see Ridley take advantage of his matchup with Donte Jackson last week, catching all eight of his targets for 143 yards and a touchdown for his biggest fantasy game of the year. The good times should continue in Week 12, as the Bucs are a team that’s familiar allowing multiple wide receivers post top-tier fantasy numbers. There have been 19 receivers to post double-digit PPR games against them, which ranks as the most in the NFL. It shouldn’t be all that shocking when you consider they allow 6.5 more points per game to wide receivers than the next closest team. Ridley will see a lot of Carlton Davis in coverage, who returned to the lineup in Week 11 after missing a few weeks. He’s been the best of the bunch for the Bucs while allowing just a 48 percent catch-rate and 4.8 yards per target in his coverage, but he’s also allowed four touchdowns on just 54 targets in coverage. He’s a bigger cornerback at 6-foot-1 and 206 pounds, so they could decide to move him across the formation, though that hasn’t been the case. Ridley can be played as a high-end WR3 in a game like this, as the Falcons won’t be moving the ball on the ground.

Russell Gage: He’s totaled 18 targets over the three games without Mohamed Sanu, which isn’t really enough to fully trust him, especially since he hasn’t topped 58 yards or scored a touchdown in any of the games. It should be noted that he did score a touchdown last week, though it was overturned as the ball seemed to move when he hit the ground. If there’s a matchup you may want to take a shot on him, it’s this one. There have been 19 wide receivers who’ve racked-up double-digit PPR points in the matchup against them, which is the most in the NFL. They had Vernon Hargreaves defending the slot but cut him just two weeks ago, and were even without backup M.J. Stewart last week. No matter if it’s Mike Edwards or Stewart out there, they’ve combined to allow 11-of-12 passing for 95 yards since they cut Hargreaves. Gage should be considered a semi-high-floor WR4/5 type option in this game.

TEs
Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard: After catching and fumbling his only target, Howard was benched in Week 11 where he sat back and watched Brate rack up 14 targets. Will it continue? It’s tough to say but Howard was already someone who couldn’t really be trusted. The Falcons haven’t been a matchup to fear for tight ends, though those who’ve succeeded have required volume. They’ve allowed just 7.19 yards and 1.73 PPR points per target to tight ends, which are both below-average marks. We can’t simply forget that Brate had just one game with more than four targets coming into Week 11, either. Remember how everyone said you can’t trust tight ends because Bruce Arians likes them? Well, what’s changed? Brate is clearly the preferred option as we head into Week 12 but there are other plus-matchups on the field the Bucs can be targeting. Brate can be in the high-end TE2 conversation but he’s not a lock for targets or production.

Jaeden Graham: I mentioned last week that Graham was someone who could pop up on the radar instead of Luke Stocker and that’s what happened. Graham saw just two targets but caught both for 23 yards in a mediocre matchup. He ran 19 pass routes, which ranked 25th among tight ends in Week 11, which isn’t very promising, but that was 10 more than Stocker. This is a great matchup for all tight ends, as the Bucs have allowed 9-of-10 tight ends finish as a top-14 option. That’s unheard of. Even the Cardinals haven’t allowed that many. It’s a risk playing Graham, but in 2019, what tight end outside the top-eight doesn’t present some sort of risk? He should be in the middling TE2 conversation this week and someone who might surprise.