Thanksgiving is tomorrow, which means we have the biggest NBA slate of the young season, with all but two NBA teams in action. These slates are very challenging for a variety of reasons. Not only are there so many players to parse through, the chances of late-breaking influential news is also heightened. My advice for people brave enough to play DFS tonight would be to not even consider someone you cannot see going for an easy 6X return on their salary (so divide the salary by 1000 and then multiply by six and that is the fantasy point total you want from them, at least). With so many teams to choose from, the field is going to find the right plays and put up big scores, so we cannot afford to just get ordinary production tonight. Alright, here we go.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Guards
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $9,600 @ Bucks
It is really impressive to me what Trae Young has done this year. He has been the Hawks heartbeat this year, scoring 22% of their fantasy points in November. For the year, Hawks games have an average over/under from Vegas of 224 points. This game tonight has a total of 239.5, a big boost to the Hawks average. Granted, most of those extra points are projected to go to the Bucks (who are 14 points favorites), but there are very clear paths to this being a big fantasy production game from both sides. If the Hawks have a good game as a team, it will be likely come on the back of a big game from Trae. He has taken 51 shots over his last two games, including 22 three-point attempts. His ceiling is as high as anybody in the game, and the price is very attractive on FanDuel at just 16% of the cap (he sits at 20% on DraftKings).
Thanksgiving is tomorrow, which means we have the biggest NBA slate of the young season, with all but two NBA teams in action. These slates are very challenging for a variety of reasons. Not only are there so many players to parse through, the chances of late-breaking influential news is also heightened. My advice for people brave enough to play DFS tonight would be to not even consider someone you cannot see going for an easy 6X return on their salary (so divide the salary by 1000 and then multiply by six and that is the fantasy point total you want from them, at least). With so many teams to choose from, the field is going to find the right plays and put up big scores, so we cannot afford to just get ordinary production tonight. Alright, here we go.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Guards
Trae Young (PG – ATL): $9,600 @ Bucks
It is really impressive to me what Trae Young has done this year. He has been the Hawks heartbeat this year, scoring 22% of their fantasy points in November. For the year, Hawks games have an average over/under from Vegas of 224 points. This game tonight has a total of 239.5, a big boost to the Hawks average. Granted, most of those extra points are projected to go to the Bucks (who are 14 points favorites), but there are very clear paths to this being a big fantasy production game from both sides. If the Hawks have a good game as a team, it will be likely come on the back of a big game from Trae. He has taken 51 shots over his last two games, including 22 three-point attempts. His ceiling is as high as anybody in the game, and the price is very attractive on FanDuel at just 16% of the cap (he sits at 20% on DraftKings).
Chris Paul (PG – OKC): $7,300 @ Trail Blazers
Admittedly, this is not a play I see as very likely as really putting your roster over the top, but I do feel pretty good about Paul in this spot. His shot attempts have recently ticked up, and his price has ticked down on FanDuel – which is something I am constantly on the lookout for. Over his last two games, he has taken 26 shots and 14 three-point attempts. He is averaging 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds on the year to boost his floor a bit. He will need those shot attempts to stay elevated and he will need to shoot a high percentage to push towards the 40 fantasy points we are desiring, but I think the safety he brings to the table makes taking a shot at that ceiling game an attractive idea. The matchup is a green light as well, as Portland is adding 10.5 fantasy points onto their opponent’s averages this year.
Ky Bowman (PG – GSW): $5,800 vs. Bulls
The most consistent (for fantasy purposes at least) Warrior, since all of the disastrous injuries, has been Bowman. Over his last five games, he has averaged 32 minutes, 12.4 shot attempts, 4.2 assists, 2.1 steals, and 2.8 rebounds with a 0.95 FPPM rate. The price has come up close to where it should be, but it is still a bit short of the mark. The Bulls are a great defense to use point guards against, so Bowman projects nicely in this spot.
Isaiah Thomas (PG – WAS): $4,800 vs. Suns
Price drop alert, Thomas was as much as $6,300 in the last two weeks and now he sits at $4,800 after a few disappointing games recently. He has not shot well recently (39% from the field in his last five games), but still has a solid usage rate of 21% in those games. For the year he has a 23% usage rate and is scoring .96 fantasy points per minute. The Suns have been an average defense this year after being very beatable last year, so there is no clear advantage on that front, and the floor is clearly pretty low with Thomas, but at $4,800 I think this is a pretty strong bet.
Rajon Rondo (PG – LAL): $4,800 vs. Pelicans
Every game the Lakers play seems to be against one of Rondo’s former teams. This is a pretty attractive spot overall with a 230.5 over/under and a tighter spread (Lakers only favored by six right now). Rondo has played 27, 18, 26, and 25 minutes in his last four games and has been his normal self – contributing in four categories. For the year he is averaging nine points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and one steal per game. Note that all of that is with three of his seven games being held below 20 minutes as he worked back from injury. This is a high fantasy point per minute player in a great matchup at a price that is too low. Rondo is a really nice piece tonight.
Forwards
LeBron James (SF – LAL): $11,200 @ Pelicans
There are a ton of great high-priced options at forward on this slate, but LeBron settles in at a reasonable price in a great game environment. Raw points would definitely favor Giannis, but he is way up at $12,700 tonight which is very tough to pay. The Pelicans are adding 12 fantasy points per game onto their opponent’s averages, and LeBron is somehow having one of the best seasons of his illustrious career. He is averaging 26 points, 7.3 rebounds, 11 assists, and 1.6 fantasy points per minute at a 32% usage rate. He has not had too many big-time ceiling games when considering today’s price, but he is really unlikely to majorly disappoint and sink your lineup.
Anthony Davis (PF – LAL): $11,100 @ Pelicans
With how often players jump from team to team in the NBA, we have a “revenge game” almost every night. There are not too many revenge games more interesting than this one, however, as Davis makes his first return to New Orleans after a somewhat rough breakup with the team last year. From a pure statistical perspective, I prefer LeBron at just $100 more, but if you believe in the narrative, Davis is going to be your guy. AD is averaging 1.47 fantasy points per minute this year despite only registering more than 20 shot attempts three times. There is a good chance that he sees a few extra shot attempts in this spot, and if he can shoot a good percentage and pile up some extra blocks and steals, there is a real shot at 70 FanDuel points here. The Lakers have one of the highest fantasy point projections on the slate and a very narrow distribution of where those points go to boot, so it is a pretty strong option to play one of their two big studs.
Jonathan Isaac (SF – ORL): $8,000 vs. Cavaliers
Wait, what? Eight grand for Isaac? That seems crazy! However, the Magic are without Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon for a third straight game, and in the first two, Isaac has really taken over this offense. He has taken 27 shots (nine three-point attempts), grabbed 15 rebounds, blocked six shots, and scored 35 points in 60 minutes. All of that was against two very tough defenses (Pacers and Pistons), so this sets up very well for him against the Cavaliers. I am not sure if he really has a massive ceiling at this new price point, but I think the price is a bit too low for his floor with the role he has in this offense right now.
Justise Winslow (SF – MIA): $5,200 @ Rockets
This will be Winslow’s first game back after a long injury absence. His last game was on November 5th, so we will really have to keep an eye on the news to see if we can get any indication on the minutes he will play tonight. The projections I am seeing right now have him playing 30+ minutes, and if that is the case, this price tag is way too low. Before the injury, he was averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute with a 24% usage rate. He was shooting the ball 16 times per game, grabbing 9.3 rebounds and dishing 6.7 assists. The Rockets are a nice matchup for the Heat here, and Winslow should have his hands on a good share of the fantasy points the Heat put up tonight – take advantage of the low price here.
Al-Farouq Aminu (PF – ORL): $3,800 vs. Cavaliers
See the Jonathan Isaac write up if you skipped it, the Magic are extraordinarily thin in the front court tonight and Aminu gets a minutes boost because of it. Now in these last two games without Vucevic and Gordon, he has played just 19 and 20 minutes, so this is far from a sure thing, but at just $3,800 he is a great way to save some money. In his last three games, he has shot just 20% from the field, and he is not that bad of a shooter so you should expect that to correct at some point. The matchup is good, the minutes should push into the twenties, and he does have a pretty high ceiling in this spot.
Centers
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $9,700 vs. Kings
Fourteen games on the slate means there are about two dozen centers that are in play, but we will start here with Embiid. He had probably the worst game of his career on Monday, going 0/11 from the field and not scoring a single point. He was averaging 23 points per game prior to that, so seeing him post a goose egg is one of the biggest outlier performances we will see all year. The price dropped $600 on FanDuel after that display, and now we can get him for under $10,000 against a really weak Kings interior defense. They have been conservative with his minutes this year, and the 76ers are favored by 9.5 in this one – but I imagine that Embiid will be anxious to make up for that Monday game, and I really like him in this spot.
Tony Bradley (C – UTA): $4,800 @ Pacers
Gobert is questionable for this one, and if he misses that will open 20+ minutes for Bradley once again. Bradley played 23 minutes on Monday with Gobert out and scored eight points while adding 11 rebounds, two assists, and three blocks. That game was against the Bucks who do not have a prototypical center that needs guarded, so I feel a little better about Bradley pushing towards 30 minutes in this one as he is needed to guard Turner and Sabonis. Centers are the safest position to bet on when injuries happen, just because they spend so much time close to the hoop that most NBA centers can rack up rebounds and blocks when given the minutes. If Gobert is out, Bradley will be a lock for me.
Mohamed Bomba (C – ORL): $4,500 vs. Cavaliers
Bomba has played 21 and 20 minutes in two games without Vucevic, and has taken 17 shot attempts while scoring 15 points, grabbing 19 rebounds, and blocking five shots in that time. He is a great fantasy point per minute guy in a nice matchup here. The ceiling is lowered a bit by the fact that the Magic clearly do not want to see him play 25+ minutes, but he brings a nice floor and a big-time double-double chance if he can get some open shot attempts.
Watching for injury news will be more important than ever tonight with all of this action, so keep a close eye on the news tonight. Good luck to everybody, and happy Thanksgiving!
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.