Wednesday brings us a huge eleven-game slate, which is always challenging to parse through. I think it is increasingly important on large slates to limit our focus to great matchups and elevated role situations. The DFS sites use complex algorithms to price players accurately to their expected output, so when all factors are neutral (matchup, injuries, etc.), there really is not much of an edge to playing anybody – the game is more or less random. The edge really comes when we get information that was not factored into the pricing of the player. Most of that comes from the algorithm not being aggressive enough on pricing up for a really exploitable matchup, or the algorithm not being aware of who is actually active for that team. This is important for every slate, of course, but when there are this many games, you are going to have these situations arise and if you do not focus in and take advantage, you are going to be behind the field.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Best Team Situations
Spurs (@ Wizards)
The Wizards have reached the top of the “exploitable matchups” chart. They have added 15 fantasy points onto their opponent’s totals on average. They allow three more possessions, ten more points, three more assists, and an extra rebound. They have allowed more than 230 fantasy points in six of their eleven games, and have had only three games where they allowed a significantly below average total (against the Thunder, Pistons, and Mavericks). These two teams met on October 26th, and the Spurs put up 260 team fantasy points in that game.
Wednesday brings us a huge eleven-game slate, which is always challenging to parse through. I think it is increasingly important on large slates to limit our focus to great matchups and elevated role situations. The DFS sites use complex algorithms to price players accurately to their expected output, so when all factors are neutral (matchup, injuries, etc.), there really is not much of an edge to playing anybody – the game is more or less random. The edge really comes when we get information that was not factored into the pricing of the player. Most of that comes from the algorithm not being aggressive enough on pricing up for a really exploitable matchup, or the algorithm not being aware of who is actually active for that team. This is important for every slate, of course, but when there are this many games, you are going to have these situations arise and if you do not focus in and take advantage, you are going to be behind the field.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Best Team Situations
Spurs (@ Wizards)
The Wizards have reached the top of the “exploitable matchups” chart. They have added 15 fantasy points onto their opponent’s totals on average. They allow three more possessions, ten more points, three more assists, and an extra rebound. They have allowed more than 230 fantasy points in six of their eleven games, and have had only three games where they allowed a significantly below average total (against the Thunder, Pistons, and Mavericks). These two teams met on October 26th, and the Spurs put up 260 team fantasy points in that game.
Bucks (@ Hawks)
Atlanta was the worst defense for fantasy purposes in the league last year, and despite a strong start to the season defensively, they have surged recently and find themselves just behind the Wizards on the bad side of defensive measures. They have allowed an average of 240 team fantasy points per game on the year, but that has come up 250 in their last eight games (despite playing some less than stellar offensive teams like the Kings, Suns, Bulls, and Nuggets).
Honorable mentions: Mavericks (vs. Warriors), Hornets (@ Nets), Nets (vs. Hornets), Pistons (vs. Bulls)
Guards
James Harden (SG – HOU): $11,700 @ Nuggets
The most important factor to consider for Harden is his price tag. He has the ball and shoots the ball so much that the matchup has diminished importance. We saw almost nobody play Harden on Monday at his sky-high prices on both sites. That price has dropped by $800 on FanDuel for this game tonight, which puts him in play on a night without a lot to love at shooting guard. At this price tag, you are hoping for about 65 fantasy points, and Harden has given you that six times in ten games this year. If he has a ceiling game while costing 19.5% of your salary allotment, it will be very tough for you to not put a great team score tonight. The matchup is not a great one, but Harden is still worth a shot.
Goran Dragic (PG – MIA): $5,800 vs. Cavaliers
The Dragon has been a very useful fantasy player without Justise Winslow in the lineup, scoring 12% of the Heat’s fantasy points and playing 30 minutes a game. He had a bit of a dud in his last game (which happened to be against this Cavaliers team), making just three of his 10 shots and scoring nine points. In his three games prior to that one, he had taken 16, 16, and 13 shots and scored 34 fantasy points per game. Despite the Cavaliers doing a nice job on him in that game, nobody will believe they are a good defense against point guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland being the guys that will follow Dragic around tonight. This is not a huge ceiling play, as Jimmy Butler really dominates the Heat’s usage, but Dragic is a strong cash play at a price that is too low.
Bryn Forbes (SG – SAS): $4,300 @ Wizards
The Spurs have the best matchup on the board and Forbes is a cheap way to get some exposure to them. Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan are much better fantasy players than Forbes, but Fanduel was overly aggressive on raising their prices for this matchup, so I don’t think there is a huge advantage to playing them. Forbes has not scored more than 30 Fanduel points yet this year, so this is more of a cash play than a tournament one, but you can feel really good about Forbes playing 25+ minutes against the worst fantasy defense in the league. He has just one true dud game this year, so you can feel very good about getting 20+ points from Forbes here, and if the shots fall he is a candidate to push over 30 and really crush this price tag.
Jordan Poole (SG – GSW): $3,800 vs. Mavericks
Here goes a tournament play for you guys. In games with D’Angelo Russell out of the lineup, Poole has averaged 26 minutes played and 10 shot attempts (5.4 three-point attempts). The bad news is that he has shot absolutely horribly in those games, making just nine of his 51 shot attempts. There is a real possibility that his shot attempts are in the teens tonight, and if the shot starts falling he could be in for a huge game at $3,800 here.
Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SF – MIL): $12,100 @ Hawks
We talked above about how great of a spot this is for the Bucks, and Giannis has a 25% share of the Bucks fantasy points. The price is exorbitant, but it has actually come down $500 from what it was two games ago, which we like to see. There is almost no chance Giannis is held below 50 fantasy points tonight, and there is a legitimate 80 point ceiling here, so this is a very nice way to spend $12,100 if you can find some cheaper plays to go with him.
Paul George (SF – LAC): $8,300 vs. Celtics
This play becomes less interesting if Kawhi Leonard plays (he is currently questionable), so keep an eye out for that. FanDuel started the year giving George a $9,600 price tag – which did not mean much since he was not playing at the time, but it shows you what kind of player their algorithm thought he was even with Kawhi present. He has played three games now and played 29 minutes on Monday, so he should be a full go tonight. He has a 42% usage rate in those three games and is scoring nearly 2 fantasy points per minute. The price is strangely down to $8,300 here, which is an amazing price for George if Kawhi is out. He is quite possibly the best play on the slate.
Rudy Gay (SF – SAS): $5,300 @ Wizards
Another way to get some of the Spurs extra fantasy points tonight for a cheap price tag is by playing Rudy Gay tonight. He has only averaged 22 minutes a game this year, which brings some risk to the table, but he has been a 1.1 fantasy point per minute guy, and has had some big games at this price tag. Even with the lower minutes, he has consistently scored 20+ Fanduel points and has shown upside into the thirties, which is what you are looking for here. I like Gay as a strong cash option.
P.J. Washington (PF – CHA): $5,500 @ Nets
There are not a lot of power forwards popping off the page at me right now, so Washington sneaks into consideration as a tournament option here. Big men get a nice boost against the Nets, and Washington has shown a pretty high ceiling this year, scoring 30+ FanDuel points four times (14 games). He has a few really bad games and has found himself in foul trouble on a few occasions, so there is risk to this play, but he is in a really great spot and has 7x upside at this price tag.
Taurean Prince (SF – BRK): $5,000 vs. Hornets
Kyrie Irving remains out for this game tonight so there is a big opportunity for some splash games from the Nets. The Hornets are a below-average fantasy defense and have given up some huge games to forwards this year. Prince has taken 13 and 11 shots in the last two games without Kyrie, but has shot a very poor percentage (29%), so his price has stayed low despite the elevated role. Prince contributes in multiple categories and should see a healthy share of usage tonight in a great matchup. He is an awesome play at just $5,000.
Centers
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,100 vs. Knicks
The price has remained calm on Embiid all year because his playing time has been very inconsistent. When he plays 30+ minutes, however, he averages 58 fantasy points. He recently had a rest day and only had to play 23 minutes in the 76ers last game, so this is a good candidate to see Embiid push into the thirties again. If he does so, there are few paths to failure against this soft Knicks interior defense. Embiid has one of the highest ceilings on the slate and is just priced too low for that ceiling.
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $9,000 vs. Rockets
Jokic hasn’t done much to deserve a $9,000 price tag this year; he is averaging just 39 FanDuel points, but the home matchup with the Rockets is pretty much as good as it gets. We all know what The Joker is capable of, and the Nuggets should see a few more possessions in this game as the Rockets play at a very high pace. This is a game the Nuggets should be geared up for, which could put the ball in Jokic’s hands a bit more often. If there was ever a night for Jokic to bust out to the tune of 60 fantasy points, it is tonight.
Ante Zizic (C – CLE): $3,500 @ Heat
Tristan Thompson will sit this game out tonight, which opens up Zizic to play 20+ minutes. We have only seen 37 total minutes from Zizic this year as he started the year injured and has not been a piece of the Cavaliers rotation, but he will be tonight. Zizic had some big fantasy games for the Cavaliers last year when his role was elevated, and it will be extremely hard for him to not really crush this $3,500 price tag if he sees 25 minutes here. You cannot be 100% sure that he will get those minutes, but it is a good bet, and it becomes an almost sure thing if Larry Nance is also ruled out – so keep an eye out for that.
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.