I would like to start this post by saying a few theoretical words about looking at Vegas betting data when building DFS lineups. There is a tendency for fantasy players to look towards games with higher over/under and to lean towards teams with higher team implied totals. This is a sound idea, of course – Vegas has a massive monetary incentive to put out accurate lines that are not exploitable by bettors. What I think a lot of people miss when considering this for fantasy sports purposes is the team context behind those lines. Sorting the slate’s games by over/under and favoring players on teams that are near the top of the list is not a very thoughtful way of doing it. You want to consider a team’s projected score against their average score, or even against their average projected Vegas score.

The average over/under for a Rockets game this year is 234 – the highest mark in the league. Tonight their game’s over/under is 226, the second-highest on the slate. You might look at that and say the Rockets are in a good spot because their game has a high over/under, but in this case, you should be saying the Rockets are in a worse spot than usual because their total is eight points below their season average. Let’s try to keep that in mind moving forward.

Check out today’s NBA Sharpshooter from DraftKings

Team Spots to Exploit

Timberwolves (vs. Wizards):
The Wolves have an average Vegas implied total of 114 for the year, which sits at 122 tonight, which is a huge boost. The league average in fantasy points allowed per game is 227, the Wizards are averaging 243. They have given up less than 227 just three times, and have given up more than 250 five times. The last time these two teams played, the Wolves scored 275 fantasy points – so they are a great team to gravitate towards tonight.

Celtics (@ Warriors): Golden State has given up a bunch of fantasy points this year, and the Celtics are projected for six more points than their season average. Teams, on average, score 245 fantasy points per game against the Warriors and have gone over 250 on six occasions. This sets up very nicely for Boston.

There are other teams in positive situations, but those two really stand out above the rest. Alright, let’s get into the player picks.

Guards

James Harden (PG/SG – HOU): $12,300 vs. Pacers
I am actually not very excited to play Harden in this spot, but I felt like I could not leave him off the post. His price is at a season-high (for anybody), and the Rockets are up against a slower, strong defensive team. The reason we cannot ignore him has to do with the weight that such an exorbitant price tag carries. I typically target 275 points, a 5.5x return on every $1,000 spent. At $12,300, that means we are looking for 68 points from Harden. He has scored more than 68 DraftKings points in five of his eight games this year. This is not a spot where we should confidently expect him to do that again, but we have to realize that it is well within the range of possibilities. Think about it this way. Getting a 5.5x return from a player with this price is vastly more valuable than getting it from a $4,000-$8,000 player. The goal of NBA DFS should not be to get value from all your players, but to get value from all your dollars spent. A single-player going 6x at $12,000 is just as good as three players going for 6x at $4,000 – and it is much more likely for one individual player to hit than three. Playing Harden really depends on the value options you can find, but he is undoubtedly in play even at this monster price.

Bradley Beal (SG – WAS): $8,500 @ Timberwolves
It finally all came together for Beal on Wednesday as he dropped 44 points, five rebounds, and six assists for a total of 63 DraftKings points against the Celtics. In the four games prior to that bust out, he really was giving us much for the price. Despite the eruption, his price has not moved, which makes him a solid option in this nice game environment against the Wolves. Beal has a 33% usage rate on the season, averaging 23 field goal attempts, 28 points, six assists, and five rebounds. He is a career 45% shooter, and prior to Wednesday, he was shooting just 40% this year. Without John Wall in the lineup, Beal is a $9,000+ player, and the bad shooting this year has given us a substantial discount on him. It is not chasing points to play Beal in this spot – he is at least $500 too cheap.

Kemba Walker (PG – BOS): $8,200 @ Warriors
We like the Celtics tonight, and Kemba is the best fantasy producer on the team. In two games since the Gordon Hayward injury, Kemba has scored 18.6% of the Celtics fantasy points – a big share. He has taken 37 shots, 24 three-pointers, scored 56 points, dished 13 assists, and grabbed 10 rebounds in 65 minutes in those games, scoring 50 and 47 DraftKings points. Despite the elevated role from an already great fantasy player, DraftKings has dropped his price $700 since the change. He sits at $8,200 tonight, an egregious price for his talent and role. The reason for the drop is likely the blowout factor, as the Warriors have really been getting torched lately, but the Celtics sit at just a 7.5 point favorite – not exactly definite blowout territory. Take advantage of the price tag, folks.

Buddy Hield (SG/SF – SAC): $6,800 vs. Lakers
The Kings are in a brutal spot against one of the best defensive teams in the league this year, but that bad news is canceled out by the elevated opportunity Hield has with Fox out of the lineup. The Oklahoma product saw his usage jump up 3% (from 27% to 30%) in the Kings first game without their starting point guard, and he took 21 shots, his second-highest total of the year. The shots have not been falling for Hield this year; he currently has a 41% field goal percentage, four percent below his career average. He shot just 33% in that game on Wednesday, so his price did not come up to the level it should be at with Fox not playing. If the shots fall, he can pay off this price tag on points scored alone; huge ceiling tonight for Buddy.

Isaiah Thomas (PG – WAS): $5,300 vs. Timberwolves
The minute restriction is a thing of the past for IT2, as he has played 29 and 33 minutes in his last two games. He took 14 shots on Wednesday, totaling 18 points. He added seven assists for a total of 31 DraftKings points, and his price has not moved. For the year he is a 1.15 fantasy point per minute player, so multiply that out to 30 minutes gives you a 34.5 point projection – a huge return on a $5,300 investment. The matchup is a positive one as well for Thomas. I really like the idea of pairing him with Beal to really lock in the bulk of the Wizards usage and shot attempts, if one guy lets you down, in that case, there is a good chance you will get that added production from the other.

Rajon Rondo (PG – LAL): $4,900 vs. Kings
A bit of a risky play here, but that’s what you have to deal with at these low price tags. Rondo made his season debut on Tuesday, scoring 23.5 DraftKings points in just 14 minutes. We want to see a lot more than 14 minutes from anybody we are playing, so if you do not think he pushes into the twenties tonight, I would not recommend Rondo – but he has always been a high FPPM player so if you do think he can play 20+ tonight, he should pay off this $4,900 salary pretty easily. Keep an eye on the news to see if you get any clarity on minutes expectation from Rondo this evening.

Forwards/Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $10,000 vs. Wizards
The Timberwolves project to score the most fantasy points on the slate tonight and Towns has a 23% share of their fantasy points in games he has played in this year. He has not had a big-time ceiling game in a while, but tonight may be the night against this soft Wizards defense. He has not let you down very much at a $10,000 price tag this year, scoring more than 50 DraftKings points in seven of nine games, with totals as high as 82. This is a fantastic cash option.

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $9,200 vs. Thunder
Not a good spot for the 76ers at all, but the price on Embiid has to pique your interest. There have only been three games this year where Embiid has played 30+ minutes, and in those three games, he has scored 67, 56, and 61 DraftKings points. He rested in the 76ers last game, so he should be a full go tonight. The matchup leaves a lot to be desired, but that 56 DraftKings points game we referenced came against the Jazz, the best defensive team in the league by far, so I would not worry too much about it. This price is a joke for Embiid, and there are very few paths to failure if he gets a full allotment of minutes tonight.

Blake Griffin (PF – DET): $7,100 @ Hornets
Charlotte is a bottom ten defensive team in the league by a variety of measures, so this is a nice spot for the Pistons. Griffin made his season debut on Monday and played just 24 minutes. He was awesome in those minutes, scoring 19 points, grabbing seven rebounds, and adding six assists. There is no reason to think he will play 35 minutes tonight, but 25-30 should be in the cards, and he is a guy that can easily pop in 40 DraftKings points in that amount of playing time, especially with this nice matchup. He is far from a safe option given the uncertainty, but the price is low enough to make him matter tonight.

Enes Kanter (C – BOS): $4,900 @ Warriors
Kanter has played just three games this year and has not played more than 25 minutes so far. In the two games, he has played 25 minutes in, however, he has scored 23 and 29 DraftKings points. Robert Williams and Daniel Theis are both questionable tonight, so the Celtics could be very thin in the frontcourt, which could potentially open up Kanter to play 30 minutes. If he does that, he has an opportunity to really destroy this price tag. He is a high FPPM guy in a great matchup, so a 40 DraftKings point projection for him tonight is not crazy, and that is an 8x return – not many guys have that kind of upside.

Tyson Chandler (C – HOU): $4,000 vs. Pacers
The injury to Clint Capela leaves the Rockets hurting for big men, and Chandler should step into some minutes in the interim. He played a season-high 16 minutes last game and scored 20.25 DraftKings points, mainly coming from his nine rebounds. I do not believe Chandler is a guy capable of going all Javale McGee on it and scoring 50 fantasy points, but he is a strong option at $4,000 just given his rebounding ability and minutes projection. There is double-double upside here, and at this point of the day there are not many other cheap guys sticking out. If Chandler is in the Rockets starting lineup, he will be in mine too.

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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @JonPgh.