New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Total: 45.0
Line: NE by 3.5
QBs
Tom Brady: Another Patriots primetime game, only this time it’s against a Ravens team that’s had two weeks to prepare. This is a secondary that’s changed significantly over the last few weeks, as they acquired Marcus Peters in a trade with the Rams, then get Jimmy Smith back from injury, and also might be getting linebacker Patrick Onwuasor back on the field. They need the help, as there have been three quarterbacks who’ve thrown for 340-plus yards against them through seven games. They have tightened up the defense over the last three games, though, and held Russell Wilson to 241/1 before the bye week. In fact, you’d have to go back to Week 4 to find the last time a quarterback averaged more than 6.55 yards per attempt against them. Knowing there were a lot of moving parts on this defense in the offseason, maybe it took time to gel? The 7.78 yards per attempt they’ve allowed on the year still ranks as the ninth-highest mark in the league, and we know Brady has attempted 39 pass attempts per game despite them outscoring their opponents 250-61. One thing to note is that the Ravens touchdown-rate of just 2.82 percent is too low for everything else they’ve allowed. There is no other team in the league who’s allowing more than 7.55 yards per attempt while allowing less than a 3.99 percent touchdown-rate. The Patriots are also not going to be able to run the ball on this brick wall up front, so it’ll be on Brady’s back to move the ball downfield. It’s not going to be an easy matchup on the road in Baltimore, but Brady should be able to post low-end QB1 numbers.
Lamar Jackson: He’s currently the No. 1 fantasy quarterback on a points per game basis, thanks largely in part to his rushing totals. He’s thrown just four touchdowns over his last five games, but he’s rushed for 450 yards and three touchdowns in that time. For those counting at home, that much rushing production is equivalent to 15.8 passing touchdowns. Would you be starting a pocket passer who has thrown for 19.8 touchdowns over the last five games? Of course you would. The Patriots have been a brutal defense for opposing quarterbacks, holding every single one of them to 11.6 points or less. Without looking, do you happen to know the quarterbacks they’ve played? Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Colt McCoy, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield. The Patriots defense is very good, but we can’t overlook the lackluster competition. Not that Jackson’s been a great passer – he hasn’t – but he presents a risk that the Patriots have struggled with. Not only have the Patriots allowed 5.57 yards per carry to quarterbacks this year (which ranks sixth-most), but they also allowed a league-high 6.89 yards per carry to quarterbacks last year. There were seven quarterbacks who totaled 20-plus rushing yards against them in 2018, including 81 yards and a touchdown to Mitch Trubisky. Jackson isn’t likely to throw for a whole lot of yardage, though it certainly helps that Marquise Brown is due back to help stretch the field. Jackson should still be played as a QB1 this week who presents a stable floor.
RBs
Sony Michel and James White: We’ve now seen Michel get 15-plus carries in seven different games, yet he’s still failed to eclipse 91 yards on the ground. His 3.3 yards per carry are very LeGarrette Blount-esque, though his six touchdowns have propped up his numbers. Now on to play the Ravens, a team he’s going to have problems against. Not only have their opponents averaged just 57.0 plays per game (third-lowest mark) but their overall numbers tell a lie. It says they’ve allowed 4.32 yards per carry, which is true, but a big part of that number comes from one game when they were without their defensive tackle Brandon Williams. If you were to remove that single game, they’ve allowed just 3.43 yards per carry and have allowed just three rushing touchdowns. Outside of Nick Chubb (in that game), they haven’t allowed a running back to pass 65 yards on the ground, which includes James Conner and Chris Carson. The matchup is brutal for a running back like Michel, so consider him an RB3 who’s going to need a touchdown to not bust. The Ravens haven’t seen many targets to running backs this year, as there’s been just 37 of them through seven games (5.29 per game), that have amounted to 29/230/1, so nothing too extravagant. With all the help they now have in the secondary, you should expect to see Brady utilize White quite a bit in this game. It also bodes well for White when Michel will struggle to get things going on the ground. White has averaged 8.2 targets per game over the last five weeks, so his floor is solid. He’s the best running back play on the Patriots this week, though it’s still not a great matchup. Consider him a low-end RB2 with bye weeks here. *Update* White suffered an apparent toe injury and was added to the injury report after getting in a limited practice on Friday. If you own him and plan on playing him, you may want to snag Rex Burkhead, who could log a lot of touches.
Mark Ingram: With Lamar Jackson rushing more and more, we’ve seen Ingram’s totals decline a bit, now finishing with 52 or less rushing yards in each of the last three games. He’s been limited to 12-16 carries in 5-of-7 games this year, which is not great knowing his lack of role in the passing game (more than two targets just once). The Patriots have still yet to allow a rushing touchdown on 132 carries this year, which isn’t ideal for Ingram who’s finished with 9.7, 8.1, and 6.3 PPR points in the games he hasn’t scored. Keep in mind that Ingram has averaged his 14.1 attempts per game while the Ravens have averaged 70.9 plays per game. The Patriots opponents average just 56.5 plays per game this year. There have been four running backs who’ve totaled at least 15 carries against the Patriots, but none of them have scored more than 14.8 PPR points and just one (Nick Chubb) has scored more than 10.9 PPR points. This is not a great game for Ingram knowing how little production has been allotted to even workhorse running backs against the Patriots. He’s similar to Sony Michel in the fact that he’s touchdown-or-bust.
WRs
Julian Edelman: With all the new faces surrounding Brady in the passing game, Edelman has been a target magnet. He’s now seen at least 11 targets in each of the last three games and is averaging just under 10 targets per game. Now going against the Ravens, he’s likely going to need that volume. The Ravens were getting destroyed against slot receivers, so they decided to let Marlon Humphrey shadow receviers into the slot, and that’s made a big difference. He held Tyler Boyd to just three catches for 10 yards on seven targets in Week 6, then held Tyler Lockett to five catches and 61 yards with a touchdown in Week 7, but that was in a game Russell Wilson threw the ball 41 times, so it should be considered a success. Over Humphrey’s career, he’s allowed just a 49.7 catch-rate in his coverage. Edelman is going to get his production, as he always does, but this is not a smash spot for him, leaving him in WR2 territory.
Mohamed Sanu: He was only with the team a few days prior to last week’s game, so it’s not shocking to see Sanu finish with a weak stat line of 2/23/0. The good news is that he was targeted five times. He rotated in and out of the slot, as Edelman does, so it’s going to be difficult for teams to gameplan a way to slow down this duo, which is likely the reason the Patriots wanted him on the roster. The Ravens are going to be a tough matchup, though. They added Marcus Peters to the roster, will be getting Jimmy Smith back from injury, have Marlon Humphrey covering the slot/shadowing top receivers, and then have Brandon Carr in reserve. They’ve allowed just nine top-40 receivers against them this year, so it hasn’t been a matchup to attack, and that’s despite the injuries they were dealing with in the secondary. Sanu remains in the WR4/5 conversation in a tough matchup while still trying to develop chemistry with Brady.
Phillip Dorsett: The addition of Sanu definitely hurt Dorsett’s role, and not because he’s stealing his targets. Through seven games, Dorsett had played in the slot 36 percent of the time, giving him mismatch potential with his speed. Now that Sanu is rotating in and out of the slot, we saw Dorsett run a season-low 12.6 percent of his routes in the slot. While Edelman is dealing with Marlon Humphrey, that will leave Dorsett with either Marcus Peters or Jimmy Smith. If there’s an area Peters can get crushed, it’s over the top, as he’ll try to sit on routes at times and let a receiver blow right by him. Smith has been out since Week 1, so he may be rusty. Dorsett could be a sleeper WR4 start this week, though there’s a scenario where he winds up with just a few catches for 20 yards.
Marquise Brown: He’s expected back this week after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. It’s obviously concerning that he had already dealt with a foot injury that required surgery this offseason. Foot/ankle injuries can destroy a pass-catcher’s season. The Patriots are obviously not a matchup to target with wide receivers, regardless. Through eight games, they’ve allowed just five top-36 wide receivers, and just one of them finished with more than 14.5 PPR points. The Patriots may not even shadow Brown in coverage, but rather bracket him with a safety. He has one-play potential that can boost him in a showdown DFS lineup, but for redraft purposes, you can find much safer options than him this week. He’s nothing more than a big-play-hopeful WR4/5 option.
Willie Snead: He’s the only one outside of Brown who’s averaging at least three targets per game for the Ravens, and even then, he’s just at 3.1 targets per game. Four of the top five wide receiver performances the Patriots have allowed this year have gone to slot-heavy receivers. While Snead is no Golden Tate, Cole Beasley, JuJu Smith-Schuster, or Jarvis Landry, he is the slot-heavy receiver on the Ravens. Al those receivers totaled at least eight targets, something Snead hasn’t come close to this year (his season-high is five targets), but if you’re playing a DFS showdown slate and looking for a cheap option, his matchup is the best one on the field.
TEs
Ben Watson: After seeing five targets in his Patriots debut, Watson finished with just one measly target against the Browns, which all but removes him from streaming consideration. He’s playing against his former team in this game, and one who has allowed a rather-high 8.72 yards per target. They’ve only allowed one touchdown on the season, which has kept the overall numbers down, but we did see both Ricky Seals-Jones and Travis Kelce post 80-plus yards against them. The matchups for the receivers are bad with the cornerbacks the Ravens have, so we could see Watson a bit more heavily utilized in this game. The one target game is definitely and will move fantasy owners off him, but you could do worse than him as an emergency option in a plus-matchup with an elite quarterback.
Mark Andrews: The bye week came at a good time, as Andrews was coming off his worst performance of the season. He saw eight targets against the Seahawks but finished with three drops in that game and netted just two catches for 39 yards. He needs to shake it off because Jackson will need him in this game. With the Patriots cornerbacks playing lights out, the tight end should be utilized heavily when they do decide to drop back and pass. The Patriots have not allowed a tight end more than three receptions this year, though the competition has been weak. The tight ends they’ve played to this point include: Demetrius Harris, Dawson Knox, Vance McDonald, Rhett Ellison, Jeremy Sprinkle, Mike Gesicki, and Ryan Griffin twice. It’s hard to take anything away from the numbers they’ve allowed knowing that competition. Going back to last year, the Patriots allowed eight different tight ends to total 11.1 or more PPR points, including two nine-catch, 100-plus yard performances. Andrews should remain in lineups as a solid TE1 despite the tough matchup because when Jackson throws, it should be concentrated to the tight ends.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Total: 48.0
Line: DAL by 7.0
QBs
Dak Prescott: Remember how I joked that the Giants were “Dolphins-Lite” a few weeks back? Well, maybe we flip-flopped that statement. The Giants are allowing a league-high 9.15 yards per attempt while the Dolphins are at 8.95 yards per attempt. Whichever way you slice it, they’re not good. They’re allowing a 70.2 percent completion-rate to quarterbacks, and though the 5.24 percent touchdown-rate is not massive, those will come with the yardage. We already watched Prescott decimate this secondary back in Week 1 when he threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns on just 32 pass attempts. Now, to be fair, that was the first time any team had a chance to see the new Cowboys offense, so there were a lot of surprises, but still, the Giants have allowed five other quarterbacks to throw for at least 8.2 yards per attempt this year. The only two quarterbacks who’ve failed to score at least 20 fantasy points and finish as a top-10 option against the Giants were Dwayne Haskins and Kyler Murray, who have both struggled with efficiency, and they both threw the ball 21 times or less. This is the second matchup of divisional teams, which tends to bring the score down, but there’s very little reason to doubt Prescott here with how bad the Giants have been. It’s worth noting that Prescott threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns at home against them last year, too, but finished with just 160 yards and one touchdown in New York. He didn’t have Cooper for that game in New York, though.
Daniel Jones: He’d been struggling for a few weeks, so it’s good to see Jones get a confidence-builder against the Lions last week. It was the first time he’d thrown more than one touchdown in the last five games. Now headed into a matchup with the Cowboys, he’ll need to play with some confidence if he wants to succeed. They’ve been a tough matchup for quarterbacks, as evidenced by the 12.2 fantasy points per game they’ve allowed, which ranks as the fourth-fewest in football, behind only the Patriots, 49ers, and Broncos. They’ve held quarterbacks to less than 7.0 yards per attempt this year, while allowing just six touchdown passes through seven games. There was a hiccup the last time they played in New York (against the Jets, in the same stadium), when they allowed Sam Darnold to complete 23-of-32 passes for 338 yards and two touchdowns while finishing as the QB9 that week. Jones wasn’t under center the first time these teams played, as Eli Manning threw the ball 44 times, netting 306 yards and one touchdown, though the Cowboys were without a few players on defense who were suspended at the time. The only two matchups that Jones totaled more than 12.3 fantasy points were against the Bucs and Lions, two teams who’ve really struggled versus the pass, so it’s difficult to see him succeed in this tough matchup. He’s just a mid-to-low-end QB2 here.
RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: His fantasy finishes this year have been 19-7-14-13-16-5-4, so while he hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations, knowing he’s yet to finish worse than RB19 is definitely worth a lot in fantasy football. The Giants are struggling so much against the pass, it’s hard for them to focus on the run, though the addition of defensive tackle Leonard Williams is likely to help, as the Giants traded for him this week. The Giants have faced a massive 25.4 carries per game by running backs this year, allowing 4.28 yards per carry and seven touchdowns through eight games. Elliott is part of those numbers, though he was a limited player in that Week 1 matchup when he tallied just 13 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown coming off his vacation. The Cowboys played in New York in Week 2 last year when Elliott totaled 17 carries, 78 yards, and a touchdown, finishing as the RB7 that week. Knowing his offensive line is now healthy, that’s huge for his upside, as the cornerstones of Tyron Smith and La’el Collins are maulers in the run-game. Knowing the Giants allowed Chase Edmonds to walk through their defense for 126 yards and three touchdowns just a few weeks ago, Elliott should feast on Monday night.
Saquon Barkley: The lack of gamescript has limited the touches for Barkley this year, but it was a great sight to see him get a season-high 10 targets against the Lions last week. He played the Cowboys defense back in Week 1 when he broke a long 59-yard run to start the game but tallied just 10 carries the rest of the game, limiting his impact. Him and Aaron Jones have been the only two who’ve reached 70 yards rushing against them, so it’s not as if it’s a great matchup, though, as Jones showed, it’s not an impenetrable defense. The 25.7 touches per game they’ve faced against running backs is not a big number, but it’s also not bad when Barkley accounts for 95 percent of the touches in this backfield. Barkley has played four games on primetime and has finished with an average of 132.8 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns, though 65.8 of his yards have been through the air. In his three games against the Cowboys, he’s finished as the RB5, RB3, and RB13. You’re going to play Barkley as an RB1 as you normally would, and this matchup shouldn’t scare you off him.
WRs
Amari Cooper: It’ll be good for fantasy owners to get their stud back into lineups, as he was missed. He’s finished as a top-34 receiver in 6-of-7 games with four top-18 finishes and two top-eight finishes. He’s been very Michael Thomas-like this year, hauling in a massive 76 percent of his targets. It helps because he’s seen more than five targets in just 4-of-7 games. The Giants are a team he mauled back in Week 1 for 106 yards and a touchdown while seeing nine targets. While Janoris Jenkins is solid, he cannot cover Cooper one-on-one, and they cannot leave rookie DeAndre Baker alone with Gallup. They seem to be keeping Jenkins at LCB most of the time, which allows the Cowboys to pick who’ll go against him. The Cowboys move Cooper around quite a bit, so it’ll be a mix of the two who’ve combined to allow six different receivers to tally 100-plus yards, and that’s not even including Danny Amendola‘s 95 yards or Cole Beasley‘s 83 yards. This is an A-plus matchup for receivers, so start Cooper as a WR1 with confidence.
Michael Gallup: It was unfortunate for Gallup to have his worst game of the year against the Eagles prior to their bye, as it left a bad taste in owners’ mouths. Combine that with a weak performance against the Jets where Cooper was out much of the game, and you have owners willing to bench him. Should you be one of them? Well, not against the Giants who’ve now allowed 12 different wide receivers who’ve finished top-40 against them, especially when Gallup will see rookie DeAndre Baker quite a bit in coverage, a cornerback who’s allowed 71.8 percent of passes be completed in his coverage with 13.1 yards per target and a touchdown every 7.8 targets. Gallup may not be the WR2 that fantasy owners thought they had, but he should be in lineups as a solid WR3 with top-12 upside in this matchup. I will leave this not on Gallup, though. His air yardage (a good indicator of success) has been steadily decreasing since his return to the lineup from 137 yards in Week 5, 71 yards in Week 6, and then just a piddly 24 yards in Week 7. We need Prescott to take more shots down the field and the lack of pass-rush for the Giants should allow him to do that.
Golden Tate: Over the four weeks he’s been in the lineup, Tate has finished outside of the top-22 receivers just once, and that was the first game he played, while Sterling Shepard was in the lineup. We must keep tabs on Shepard (concussion), as he could return at any point, though nothing has suggested he will. Tate has played against this Dallas secondary three times since the start of the 2018 season. Once with the Lions in Week 4 of last year where he finished with 8/132/2, then with the Eagles in Week 10 where he totaled just 2/19/0, and then again in Week 14 when he caught just one ball for seven yards. It’s hard to take much from that, expect for the fact that he produced when he was targeted. He’s averaging 10.0 targets over the last three games, so that’s a good sign. Shepard played the slot-heavy role for the Giants back in Week 1 when he finished with 6/42/0 on seven targets, though that was with Manning. All-in-all, there have been six wide receivers who’ve totaled eight or more targets against the Cowboys. Four of them finished as top-20 options, while the other two tallied at least 68 yards. Knowing the lack of options on the perimeter, Tate should be peppered with targets again and finish with a solid WR3-type floor. *Update* With Shepard returning to the lineup, his target floor will shrink, moving him into the WR3/4 conversation.
Sterling Shepard: After finally being cleared from the concussion protocol, Shepard will be on the field Monday night when the Giants host the Cowboys. Unfortunately, he’s returning to the perimeter role with Golden Tate on the field. That’s been a tough matchup against the Cowboys, as they’ve allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. In the only game Shepard and Tate played together, Shepard finished with 10 targets, though they netted just 49 yards. Shepard should be considered a WR4-type play with a limited ceiling against the Cowboys.
Darius Slayton: If you weren’t able to watch the Giants game last week, Slayton’s two touchdown catches were big-boy touchdowns that he won in contested catch situations. Unfortunately, those were his only two catches on the day. He’s seen exactly two or five targets in every game except one, and that was against the Patriots in Week 6 when he saw eight targets, though it’s worth noting that both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard were out. When you have a player who’s essentially capped at five targets going against a team that’s allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per target, it’s not a great combination. The duo of Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown have allowed just two touchdowns on 55 targets in coverage, so it doesn’t look good on the touchdown front, either. In fact, receivers have seen 23 red zone targets against the Cowboys (4th-most) but have scored just three touchdowns (3rd-fewest). Slayton is not a recommended option this week.
TEs
Jason Witten: Want to know a crazy stat? Witten ranks top-12 in routes run among tight ends despite already having his bye week. It hasn’t led to many fantasy points, though as odd as it sounds, Witten is not a bad streaming option considering his floor. He’s finished as a top-18 tight end in 6-of-7 games with his worst finish being TE22 with three catches for 29 yards. The Giants have not been a good matchup for tight ends, though. The new safety duo of Jabrill Peppers and Antoine Bethea has been solid, allowing just a 59.5 percent completion-rate and two touchdowns on 37 targets. Oddly enough, both touchdowns they allowed were to the Cowboys tight ends in Week 1 as both Witten and Blake Jarwin scored. That was their first game with the new safety duo, so they had little-to-no chemistry back there. It’s not a great matchup, so Witten is just a middling TE2 who you’d be hoping for a touchdown to get you into top-12 territory.
Evan Engram: After a disappointing game against the Cardinals in Week 7, Engram bounced back with 40 yards and a touchdown in Week 8, though it’s possible he’s still not 100 percent off his MCL sprain he suffered. Still, he’s a tight end who is guaranteed five-plus targets, so it’s not as if you’d even consider benching him. It also doesn’t hurt that he racked up 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys back in Week 1, which was his biggest game of the year. We’ve watched seven different tight ends tally at least three receptions against the Cowboys, so it’s clearly a high-floor spot for them. The 74.5 percent completion-rate and 8.33 yards per attempt look quite nice for someone with a high target floor and ceiling. Engram should be locked into lineups as a solid TE1.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 44.0
Line: SF by 8.0
QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: We know the 49ers haven’t had to pass very much this year due to the dominance of their defense that’s now held opponents to 20 points or less in every game, including 13 points or less in each of their last four games. That’s added up to Garoppolo averaging just 27.0 pass attempts per game. The 43:57 pass to run ratio they’ve averaged is the most run-heavy by far, as the Vikings 47:53 is the closest. The Cardinals opponents have averaged 65.7 plays per game, which is the 10th most in the league, so it’s possible we see Garoppolo hit 30 attempts. The Cardinals have been a pass defense to attack for a majority of the year, though we wondered how much Patrick Peterson would impact their struggles. While he made a difference against the Giants in Week 7 when they held Daniel Jones to the QB20 performance, Drew Brees crushed that narrative when he threw for nearly 400 yards with three touchdowns. Jones and Andy Dalton were the only two quarterbacks who averaged less than 7.4 yards per attempt against the Cardinals. Because of that, we can look at Garoppolo as a potential streaming option if we assume he’s able to produce with efficiency. That hasn’t really been his rep, though, as he’s totaled more than 14.9 fantasy points just once this year (Bengals in Week 2). When looking at a player like this, you must ask yourself if the risk of low upside is worth the reward of his high floor. In the end, the floor just hasn’t been high enough to consider him safe, making him just a middling QB2 in this matchup.
Kyler Murray: We’ve now watched Murray throw exactly zero touchdowns in four of his last five games. The fact that he played against the Bengals, Falcons, and Giants during that stretch of games makes it even worse, as those are the matchups to pad your stats. The issue is that they aren’t throwing the ball nearly as much. Over the first three games, we saw Murray rack up at least 40 pass attempts in every game. Over the last five games, he hasn’t totaled more than 37 attempts, so his lack of efficiency is killing his fantasy performances. His rushing floor does help but seeing him total just 41 yards on the ground over the last two weeks combined doesn’t help. The 49ers pass-rush combined with the Cardinals offensive line issues likely amounts to massive problems. They have posted a 10.8 percent sack-rate, which easily ranks as the best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have allowed an 8.2 percent sack-rate, which ranks as the eighth-highest mark in the league. No quarterback has been able to manage more than 7.4 yards per attempt against them, and just one has been able to top 6.4 yards per attempt. Through seven games, they’ve allowed just five passing touchdowns, including none over their last four games against Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Case Keenum, and Kyle Allen. With how much the 49ers slow down the game, their opponents have averaged just 53.0 plays per game, by far the lowest in the NFL. With a low play-count, low efficiency, and a massive pass-rush, Murray should not be relied upon for anything more than middling QB2 production, which will likely come from his legs.
RBs
Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida: If there’s someone who gained a lot of value last week, it’s Coleman. He scored four touchdowns on just 13 touches and has been in the clear-cut lead role since returning from injury. On top of that, Breida had to leave the Week 8 game with an injury, as did Jeff Wilson. That means it could be Coleman and Raheem Mostert in the timeshare this week. If that’s the case, Coleman should be a lock for 20-plus touches against a Cardinals team that just allowed Latavius Murray to tag them for 157 total yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, the Cardinals have not been considered a smash spot for running backs, though part of that could’ve been due to teams game-planning to attack them through the air. The truth is that they’ve now allowed three top-10 running backs in a row, as Devonta Freeman, Saquon Barkley, and Murray have all posted 17-plus PPR points against them. In fact, the only starting running backs who finished outside the top 13 running backs when playing against the Cardinals were Joe Mixon and Mark Ingram, two running backs who aren’t involved in the passing game. Coleman hasn’t seen more than three targets, but knowing the projected gamescript here, it shouldn’t matter all that much. If Breida is out, like we’re expecting, Coleman should be locked in as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 who’s getting 20-plus touches. Mostert would even get into the flex conversation as someone who’d net 10-plus touches. *Update* Breida looks unlikely to play, while Mostert is also questionable. Wilson’s injury turned out to be a stinger and he’s on track to play. There are many different potential outcomes in this backfield, but the idea is that the No. 2 running back behind Coleman should offer flex value. In order of if they are active, it would go Breida, Mostert, Wilson.
Kenyan Drake and Zach Zenner: This is a frustrating scenario, as the Cardinals are forced to play three running backs who’ve been on the team from 4-10 days. Drake is the one they actually traded for, while Zenner and Alfred Morris were available on the street, though they’ve had one more week to learn the offense. Kliff Kingsbury said Drake will have a “manageable workload” in his first game with the team. We don’t know what that means, but it does imply he’ll be active. During his time with the Dolphins, Drake averaged just 1.21 yards before contact, while the Cardinals running backs have enjoyed 1.99 yards before contact, so despite it not being a very good offensive line, it’s an improvement. The 49ers are a tough first matchup, too, but we have seen four different running backs tally at least 75 yards on the ground against them, including Ronald Jones and Adrian Peterson. The issue against the 49ers has been lack of plays, as teams have averaged just 54.4 plays against them, the lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have averaged 66.5 plays per game in their up-tempo offense. Despite that high play-count, the running backs have averaged just 22.6 touches per game, including just 17.1 carries per game. Knowing Drake is the best receiver, he should be in the primary role. It’s risky but he should be considered a manageable RB3 during the heavy bye week. Zenner is nothing more than a desperation option, as he totaled just four touches despite Chase Edmonds leaving with plenty of time to go.
WRs
Emmanuel Sanders: Despite being with the team just a few days before the game, Sanders posted the fourth-best game by a 49ers wide receiver this year. He saw five targets, which as crazy as it sounds, is the third-highest total by a 49ers receiver this year. Now going to play the Cardinals, it’s another game where we’re unlikely we see a whole lot of pass attempts out of Garoppolo. With Patrick Peterson on the other side of the field, you have to wonder if he shadows Sanders, though it seems unlikely when you hear that Sanders ran 50 percent of his routes from the slot last week. Tramaine Brock has been the primary slot cornerback for them, and it hasn’t been very pretty. He’s allowed just 14-of-23 passing, but when he does allow a catch, they make it count as pass catchers have turned those 14 receptions into 218 yards and two touchdowns. Sanders is the only receiver worth considering on the 49ers roster, but knowing the limited ceiling on pass attempts needs to factor in on your decision. He should be considered a somewhat high-floor WR3/4 with a limited ceiling.
Dante Pettis: He’d been moving up the ranks and leading the team in snaps since their bye week, but it’s now obvious the 49ers are not comfortable with him in that role after he played just 20-of-65 snaps in Week 8. There were also rumors about a trade with him, so it’s clear he’s not a part of their immediate plans. Feel free to drop him in non-dynasty formats.
Larry Fitzgerald: We’ve watched him trend in the wrong direction over the last month, as he’s failed to top 69 yards in each of the last six games, including just three catches for 20 yards in the last two games combined. Is this the end for the future Hall of Famer? Some wondered if Kirk coming back to the lineup would help free him of attention, but after his two-catch, eight-yard performance, that’s not the solution. The 49ers run a zone-heavy schemes which typically allow for a lot of underneath receptions for guys like Fitzgerald in the slot, but knowing he’s struggled in matchups against the Saints, Giants, Falcons, and Bengals, how do we trust him? Four of the top six performances the 49ers have allowed to receivers have gone to those who are slot-heavy, as Tyler Boyd racked up 10/122/0, JuJu Smith-Schuster 3/81/1, Chris Godwin 3/53/1, and Jarvis Landry 4/75/0. Outside of Boyd, you can see the catches have been rather limited. That’s an issue for Fitzgerald knowing his quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown in four of his last five games. He should be considered a WR4 with minimal upside until we see him trend back in the right direction.
Christian Kirk: He’s now seen a massive 47 targets over his five games played, including 11 targets in his return to the lineup last week. With the run-game in flux, Kirk should be peppered with targets again. The 49ers don’t have a specific cornerback who’ll see him in coverage more than the rest, as he’s run 80 percent of his routes from the slot, so it’ll be a lot of zone coverage over the middle of the field. Their primary nickel cornerback is K’Waun Williams, who’s been solid, just like everyone else in the 49ers secondary this year. He’s allowed just 5.23 yards per target in the slot without a single touchdown. You’d actually have to go back to Week 3 to find the last time a wide receiver or tight end scored more than 11.5 PPR points against the 49ers, so it’s been a bad matchup all around. He’s catching the 49ers at a bad time, though the lack of run-game might help him get a bit more volume. Still, it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
TEs
George Kittle: It didn’t seem Kittle lost any of his ceiling with Sanders in the lineup, as he caught 6-of-7 targets for 86 yards in a game where Garoppolo threw just 22 passes. His 26 percent target share is holding him up, as his 358 air yards rank just ninth among tight ends. Fortunately, his 239 yards after the catch ranks third at the position. If we can get some more volume out of the 49ers passing game, it would be huge for his potential. This matchup isn’t likely to require volume, though. The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL against the tight end position, and it’s not close. They’ve already allowed five top-two performances against them, including three tight ends who topped 110 yards. It’s crazy to think there’ve been just 10 such games by tight ends this year, yet three have come against one team. It does help that the Cardinals opponents have averaged nearly 66 plays per game. Kittle needs to be in lineups as a high-end TE1 and he probably should finish as the TE1.
Charles Clay: We watched Clay set the season-high for targets last week… though that was just three of them. You cannot start any tight end in fantasy football who has a season-high of three targets, let alone one tied to a quarterback who hasn’t thrown a touchdown in four of the last five games while in a matchup against the 49ers, the hottest defense in football that hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown since Week 3.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.