The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

Total: 51.0
Line: OAK by 2.0

QBs
Matthew Stafford: In the first game without Kerryon Johnson, the Lions seemed ready to unleash Stafford, though he didn’t take many attempts to get the job done. He completed a ridiculous 25-of-32 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants. He now has 16 passing touchdowns through just seven games, which puts him as No. 2 in the NFL behind only Russell Wilson. On a per-game basis, he’s averaging as many as Patrick Mahomes. Now he’s heading into a matchup against the Raiders, a team who’s defended the run very well, which has led to a lot of quarterbacks posting big fantasy games. Through seven games, they’ve allowed four quarterbacks to finish as top-six options, including two of them finishing as the QB1 for the week. The best part about it is that their opponents have averaged just 34.6 pass attempts per game with efficiency off the charts. They’re allowing a massive 8.63 yards per attempt and 7.85 percent touchdown-rate on the year, which are both higher than Stafford’s marks of 8.4 yards per attempt and 6.4 percent touchdown-rate, which have been good enough to be the No. 7 quarterback on a per-game basis. Stafford should be in lineups as a rock-solid QB1 once again this week who can be trusted in cash lineups.

Derek Carr: He’s now thrown at least two touchdowns in four of the last five games, though it unfortunately hasn’t amounted to much fantasy success, as he’s topped 15.7 points just once this season, and it was against the Texans depleted defense last week. That was his first time finishing as a top-15 quarterback this season. The Lions may come into this game shorthanded as well, as they were missing Darius Slay last week, which allowed Daniel Jones to have a career day and finish as the QB1 last week. That was the second straight game the Lions have allowed four passing touchdowns, as Kirk Cousins hit that mark in Week 7. When you run man coverage on a league-high 64 percent of plays, like the Lions do, missing your best man-cover cornerback makes a huge difference. The Lions are generating a sack on just 4.4 percent of dropbacks, which is one of the lowest marks in football, and it matches their lack of pressure, as they’re generating pressure on just 26 percent of dropbacks, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. Will it make much of a difference? Oddly enough, Carr has essentially the same QB Rating under pressure (102.5) than he does in a clean pocket (103.6). The issue with Carr is that he offers nothing with his legs, and that lowers his weekly floor, but this matchup should be able to net 16-plus points once again this week, provided Slay is out.

RBs
Tra Carson, Ty Johnson, and J.D. McKissic: What in the world happened last week? No one could’ve predicted Carson walking in and getting the majority of carries, though after the fact, we’re able to dive a bit deeper. Carson played under current Lions running back coach Kyle Caskey when both were with the Bengals, which obviously helps his chances. He didn’t do anything spectacular in last week’s game, as his biggest run was through a truck-size hole in the Giants defense. I’m confident saying that Johnson looked better and offers more in the passing game, though he did have a drop along the sideline last week. Johnson also played more snaps than Carson, as they gave Carson a carry on 12 of his 19 snaps. The Raiders have not been a team to attack with running backs, as they’ve allowed just 3.87 yards per carry despite losing their starting strong safety and inside linebacker for the year. Teams seemingly understand that, too, as running backs have combined to average just 20.9 carries per game against them. Knowing that, Carson shouldn’t be near starting lineups. Johnson himself isn’t very appealing, either, as he’s sharing passing-down work with McKissic. The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points through the air to running backs, which does favor the pass-catchers. Johnson is a high-end RB4 with the most appeal, while Carson is a low-end RB4, and knowing McKissic hasn’t totaled more than seven touches, he’s unplayable.

Josh Jacobs: We had some concerns with Jacobs last week as he barely practiced and was questionable for the game, but after netting 17 opportunities, it’s safe to say he’s doing well. He’s now totaled at least 17 touches in four straight games and has finished as the RB22-RB3-RB12-RB28 during that time, presenting a rock-solid floor. The Lions opponents have averaged a league-high 69.7 plays per game, which should allow for tons of touches, as running backs have averaged 29.4 touches per game against them. The volume Jacobs has been getting will surely help, as there has been 10 running backs who’ve totaled at least 11 touches against the Lions. Every single one of them finished as a top-33 option. There have been five running backs who’ve totaled at least 15 touches against the Lions. Every single one of them finished as a top-eight option. Knowing they’ve allowed a 20-point PPR running back in 6-of-7 games should give you enough of a reason to start Jacobs with extreme confidence. He should be considered a low-end RB1 this week.

WRs
Kenny Golladay: After notching just two targets in the Week 7 matchup with the Vikings, Stafford went right back to his No. 1 option last week, hitting him six times for 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. It was the third time over the last six games he’s topped 115 yards and the second time in the last four games he’s finished with multiple touchdowns. Now on to play the Raiders who’ve allowed four 100-yard receivers and two multiple-touchdown games through seven games, it kind of syncs up with Golladay’s performances to this point. The Raiders are also down one of their starting cornerbacks, as they traded Gareon Conley to the Texans, so they’ll be relying on Daryl Worley and rookie Trayvon Mullen to cover the duo of Golladay and Jones. They both move around the formation, so there’s not a particular matchup Golladay will see. Knowing they’ve allowed 11 different wide receivers finish as top-32 options through seven games should give you an idea as to the fantasy floor Golladay should have in this game. In a game with a projected total of 51 points, there’s a lot to like with Golladay, who should be in lineups as a WR1.

Marvin Jones: He was in a spot to crush once again last week, and if you knew Stafford would throw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, you’d start him again. These things happen when you’re the No. 2 wide receiver in an offense, though with the lack of a run-game, it should happen less and less. The 2.11 PPR points per target the Raiders are allowing ranks as the fifth-highest mark in all of football, and that’s why despite seeing the ninth-fewest targets to receivers, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. Jones is likely to see a lot of rookie Trayvon Mullen in coverage, a cornerback who’s been pushed into action because the Raiders traded away former first-round pick Gareon Conley. Mullen has played just 130 snaps this season and been targeted nine times. On those targets, he’s allowed six catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. Knowing the Lions are projected for a rock-solid 24.5 points without much of a run-game, Jones should be in lineups as a WR3 in what could be a shootout in Oakland.

Danny Amendola: We’ve now seen Amendola targeted 19 times over the last two weeks while the Lions have been without Kerryon Johnson (for the most part). We could see Stafford resort to him the way he used to with Theo Riddick and Golden Tate. Week 8 was the third time in six games where Amendola has totaled at least 95 yards receiving. That’s not something you find on the waiver wire very often. The Raiders have been tormented in the slot this year, as Lamarcus Joyner has struggled in his transition to nickel cornerback from safety. He’s now allowed 32-of-41 passing for 334 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, so when targeted, it often nets results. The issue with relying on too big of a game from Amendola is due to the plus-matchups for both Golladay and Jones on the perimeter. It’s always risky starting a wide receiver who’s the third option in a pass attack, but if you’re going to do it, do it in a game that’s projected to be high scoring. Amendola should present a relatively high floor in this game as a WR4/5-type option.

Tyrell Williams: He returned to the lineup in Week 8 and to no one’s surprise, he scored a touchdown. He’s scored a touchdown in every game he’s played, which stands at five games. The Texans were incredibly shorthanded last week, allowing Williams to tally 91 yards and a touchdown, but he finished with just three catches for his third game in a row. There’s a big wildcard for Williams in this game, and his name is Darius Slay. He was forced to leave the game in Week 7 and then miss Week 8 altogether, which happen to be the two games the Lions allowed four passing touchdowns apiece. If Slay is out, it pushes Mike Ford into the starting lineup and forces Rashaan Melvin to deal with opposing No. 1 receivers in coverage. Melvin has allowed three touchdowns on 10 targets with Slay out of the lineup, but has allowed no touchdowns on 32 targets with Slay in the lineup. If Slay is ruled out, Williams can be played as a WR3 in a plus-matchup. If Slay is able to make it back from his hamstring injury, Williams would be nudged down into WR4 territory and no longer someone you need to play.

Zay Jones: After being ruled inactive in Week 7, the Raiders are easing Jones into the offense. He ran just 11 routes last week, which ranked fourth among Raiders receviers, but that’s likely to change this week as he gets more comfortable in the offense. They did line him up in the slot on 46 percent of his routes, which is helpful, as Jones has been much more effective when lined up against nickel cornerbacks. It’s still a very small sample size, so we can’t simply assume he’ll continue to hit that percentage, but we’ll pay attention. Wide receivers have averaged 23.7 targets per game against the Lions, likely due to the insanely high play counts (69.7 per game) against them. There are likely going to be two fantasy relevant receivers from the Raiders this week, but you can’t start anyone outside of Tyrell Williams with any confidence.

TEs
T.J. Hockenson: Despite Stafford having an MVP caliber start to the season where he’s averaged 299.0 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game, Hockenson hasn’t topped 32 yards since back in Week 1 against the Cardinals. It’s almost like… he’s a rookie tight end. The Lions have been good about taking advantage of mismatches this year, though, so we may want to give him an additional look against the Raiders, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the tight end position despite seeing the 18th most targets. It’s similar to last year when the Raiders were the worst team in the league against tight ends, allowing a league-high 10.29 yards per target and 2.28 PPR points per target. This year, they’ve allowed 8.69 yards per target and 2.24 yards per target, as the six touchdowns on 51 targets have boosted the latter mark. They’ve allowed five top-13 tight end performances through seven weeks, so the odds are in his favor provided he can get the targets. He’d seen 11 targets in the previous two games to Week 8, but after a one target game, you have to wonder if the Lions are simply going to distribute the ball to others who’ve produced, like Amendola. The matchup is a good one, so it’s not the worst time to stream Hockenson as a high-end TE2, but his lack of production is mounting.

Darren Waller: It was his worst game of the year from a yardage standpoint, yet Waller was able to appease his fantasy owners with another touchdown, his third in the last two games. He’s the rare case of a tight end who’s seen at least seven targets in 6-of-7 games and is averaging 8.3 targets per game. The Lions have not been a matchup to run from, either. They’ve allowed five different tight ends to rack up 40-plus yards against them, including a seven-catch, 85-yard game to Travis Kelce. The Lions have only allowed two touchdowns to the position, but we know those are volatile. The biggest telling point for tight end production is yards per target, and the 8.90 yards per target the Lions have allowed ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league. In a game where the Raiders are projected for 26.5 points, Waller has the looks of a high-end TE1, which is what he’s been all season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 51.5
Line: SEA by 6.5

QBs
Jameis Winston: After a slow start to the season, Winston has now finished as a top-16 quarterback in each of his last five games, which have included three top-10 finishes. Some will worry about the two interceptions last week, but Bruce Arians came to bat for him after the game saying neither of them were his fault. Now heading into a matchup with the Seahawks in a game that has the highest total on the entire slate, Winston has the looks of a good streaming option. They’re no longer a defense you need to be concerned with, as they’ve allowed 6-of-8 quarterbacks finish as the QB14 or better. The only two quarterbacks who failed to hit that mark were Mason Rudolph and Teddy Bridgewater, two backup quarterbacks, though both of them were able to throw multiple touchdowns. The Seahawks have allowed a solid 7.52 yards per attempt this year, which isn’t a massive number, but looking at the quarterbacks they’ve played, it’s a pretty high number. They’ve played (in order) Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Matt Schaub. There are just two of them who rank inside the top-16 quarterbacks on a points per game basis. Both Dalton and Schaub were able to throw for more than 415 yards, while Goff tallied 395 yards. Knowing the Bucs are struggling to run the ball and that Seahawks opponents average 37.8 pass attempts per game, Winston has the look of a mid-to-low-end QB1 who’s offered a solid floor the last five weeks.

Russell Wilson: Despite averaging just 31.3 pass attempts per game, Wilson currently sits as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback on a points-per-game basis. His 17 passing touchdowns lead the league, and that’s not including his three rushing touchdowns. The Bucs have been the definition of a funnel defense, as they’ve allowed an NFL-best 2.95 yards per carry, but the 7.46 yards per attempt they allow through the air ranks 16th. They’re another team who’s played a bunch of below-average quarterbacks. The list consists of Jimmy Garoppolo, Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, and Ryan Tannehill. Not one of those quarterbacks is top-16 in terms of fantasy points per game, yet five of the seven quarterbacks finished with 17-plus points and as the QB14 or better. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. You’re starting Wilson as a high-end QB1 and expecting results in a game they should be throwing more than usual.

RBs
Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber: So much for eliminating the timeshare coming out of the bye week. Here’s a breakdown of their touch counts over the weeks.

The only word you’d use to describe that is “gross.” There’s no consistency, though Jones is clearly the one with the highest touch ceiling. The Seahawks have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs while seeing an average of 25.8 touches per game (only 19.6 of them have been carries). With this being a 46/43/11 timeshare, that wouldn’t amount to many touches for either Barber or Jones. Realistically, you should expect around 10-12 touches for Jones and 8-10 touches for Barber. Neither are heavily involved in the passing game (have combined for 13 receptions all year), which is the one area the Seahawks have been a tad vulnerable to running backs. There’ve been just six running backs who’ve scored more than 8.9 PPR points against the Seahawks, and each of them totaled at least 14 touches. Jones is nothing more than a high-end RB4 who has more big-play potential, while Barber is a middling RB4.

Chris Carson: Another week has passed, and another week Carson has netted 20-plus touches. He’s now hit that number in 6-of-8 games, including each of the last five games. Because of that, he’s not finished outside of the top-18 running backs since way back in Week 3. This week will be his toughest test, as the Bucs come to town, a defense that’s allowed just 2.95 yards per carry on the year. Many might scoff at that number saying it’s a small sample size but knowing who they played makes it even more impressive. They’ve had to play Christian McCaffrey twice, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman, and Todd Gurley. Despite that, they’ve allowed more than 9.3 PPR points just three times, and each of the players totaled at least 10.2 PPR points through the air. Carson has been used in the passing game, so it’s not like you’re fading him completely, but dialing back expectations makes sense in this tough matchup where they should be throwing the ball a bit more. Carson should be viewed as a solid RB2 this week, but not one you should aim to play in cash. As for tournaments, he’s still on the table as someone who can score multiple touchdowns in what should be a high-scoring affair.

WRs
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin: Evans absolutely crushed last week with Adoree Jackson out for the Titans, and it was good to see the Bucs target the mismatches on the field. Evans has now seen 29 targets over their last two games, so Winston is locking onto him once again. There’s an odd stat that I found when combing through the stats for this week’s game, which has led me to combine the paragraphs of Evans and Godwin. The Seahawks run zone about 76 percent of the time, which is one of the highest marks in the league. Evans against zone coverage this year has netted just 7.9 yards per target and no touchdowns while Winston has thrown three interceptions and has a 32.4 QB Rating when targeting him. Meanwhile, Godwin has posted 14.5 yards per target against zone with four touchdowns and Winston has a perfect 158.3 QB Rating when targeting him. Evans was also much better against man vs. zone coverage last year (QB Rating over 20 points higher vs. man) while Godwin was much better against zone coverage (almost 40 points higher vs. zone). This could be something, but it could be nothing. The good news is that Evans lines up in Shaquill Griffin‘s coverage just 40 percent of the time, while Godwin is there just 20 percent of the time. He’s their best cornerback who stays put at LCB, so the Bucs can pick their matchups. You’re starting both receivers as WR1s this week, but Godwin is the one who should have the bigger game, and the one I’d target in tournaments.

Tyler Lockett: He’s now seen seven or less targets in five straight games, but fortunately, he’s been able to record at least 75 yards and/or a touchdown in each of the last four games. His production on a per-target basis is off the charts, as he’s 19th in targets, but 10th in fantasy points among receivers. We’re looking at a game where the Seahawks are likely to throw the ball a bit more, as the Bucs have been a dominant run defense through eight weeks. Lockett is seeing 22 percent of the Seahawks targets, so if there’s an increase in attempts, it’ll be noticeable. There’s been three games where Wilson has thrown the ball more than 33 times. In those games, Lockett has totaled 33 targets and finished as the WR14, WR4, and WR14 in those games. The Bucs secondary doesn’t have an answer for Lockett, as they’ve already allowed two 100-yard games to slot-heavy receivers, as both Cooper Kupp and Sterling Shepard were able to finish as top-six receivers against them. The Bucs have allowed a massive 41.8 PPR points per game to the receiver position, so get Lockett locked-and-loaded as a WR1 this week.

D.K. Metcalf: We knew he was due for some touchdown regression to the mean, though the two touchdowns he scored last week were based on mistakes by the Falcons, as their defense simply forgot to cover him on one play and weren’t ready on the other play. He’s seen at least five targets in 6-of-8 games this year, and now going into a game with the Bucs where the attempts should be up, Metcalf has some serious appeal. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, which has included 13 wide receivers who’ve posted 10.8 or more PPR points against them through just seven games. Vernon Hargreaves is the cornerback he’ll see in coverage over 60 percent of the time, a former first-round pick from 2016 who’s been a bust. Over the course of his four-year career, he’s allowed a massive 69.7 percent catch rate and 13.6 yards per reception. He’s also allowed two touchdowns in his coverage over the last give games. The process approach says that Metcalf has top-15 upside this week and should be in lineups as a WR3.

Jaron Brown and David Moore: We don’t know if it’s a sign of things to come, but Moore out-snapped Brown last week. Moore only played 29 snaps, but it did tie his season-high. The Bucs have allowed a lot of usable performances to receivers this year, though it’s worth noting that Brown/Moore will have the toughest matchup on the field against Carlton Davis. While he’s not great, he’s allowed just a 47 percent catch-rate in his coverage, though 4-of-51 targets have wound up as touchdowns. If you’re looking for a hail mary to play, Moore appears to be the one.

TEs
Cameron Brate: The Bruce Arians offense hasn’t been what you’d call tight end friendly no matter who’s been on the field, as Brate and Howard have combined for just 39 targets through seven games. There are nine tight ends who have more targets on their own. With Howard out of the lineup last week, we saw a season-high six targets, which is definitely a step in the right direction and streamer-worthy territory. On top of that, the Seahawks have been one of the premier matchups for tight ends. There have been four different tight ends who’ve totaled at least five receptions against them, which provides a high floor. The marks across the board are good for tight ends, as they’ve allowed a 69.7 percent completion-rate, 12.35 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 16.5 targets, which all amounts to 1.92 PPR points per target, the sixth-highest mark in the league. Brate should be in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation.

Jacob Hollister: It seems like Ed Dickson is set to return this week, but he’s yet to see more than three targets in a Seahawks uniform. Meanwhile, Hollister got six of them against the Ravens in Week 7. For the time being, we have to assume he’s the starting tight end to consider. The Bucs are a matchup to target with streamers, as they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position. It doesn’t help their cause that they’ve seen 10.4 targets per game against the position, but this is a team that allowed a ton of fantasy points to the position last year, too. The game Hollister had six targets was against the Ravens when Wilson threw the ball 41 times. Quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Bucs. In what’s projected to be the highest scoring game, Hollister is not the worst TE2 option.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 46.5
Line: GB by 3.0

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: After being held to less than 15 fantasy points in four of the first five games, Rodgers has come to life over the last three weeks, finishing as the QB12, QB1, and QB3. The matchups were good, but you can make the case that this week’s matchup is another good one. The game is on the road, but there will be more Packers fans there than Chargers fans. The overall numbers show that the Chargers have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, but there’s more to the story. They’re allowing a massive 8.42 yards per attempt, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league behind only the Giants, Dolphins, Bengals, Raiders, and Falcons. The issue has been pace, as opponents have averaged just 58.9 plays per game against the Chargers. In fact, the Chargers games are just slow-paced in general, as they’ve netted just 118.9 plays per game, the lowest in the NFL. Because of that, there’s been just 27.4 pass attempts per game against them. No quarterback has been able to reach 36 pass attempts though eight games. That’s the concern with Rodgers this week, though his efficiency should carry him through. I mean, he’s thrown eight touchdowns over the last two weeks while throwing the ball just 64 times. Rodgers is a QB1 this week who’d get even more of a boost if Adams is able to return.

Philip Rivers: It’s been somewhat of a hit-or-miss season for Rivers, who’s finished as a top-10 quarterback four times, but he’s also finished as the QB24 or worse in three games. That’s what happens when you have a non-mobile quarterback who has off games at times. He hasn’t thrown three touchdowns since back in Week 1, though some of that has been due to his receivers dropping would-be touchdowns. There’s a big shift in the team this week, though. They’ve fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, so we could see a new approach in Week 9. Rivers has averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game, which is likely part of the reason Whisenhunt was let go, as they should be running the ball a bit more. The Packers started out the year strong against the pass but have started to show their true colors over the last five games. During that stretch, they’ve allowed a 64.1 percent completion-rate, 8.67 yards per attempt, and nine passing touchdowns. Four of the five quarterbacks they played in that stretch were able to finish with 17.7 or more fantasy points, though none have finished better than the QB7. There’s so much uncertainty with this offense right now, and knowing how slow-paced their games have been, it’s tough to say Rivers is anything more than a high-end QB2.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: As it turns out, there’s enough production to go around between these two running backs, especially when the Packers are averaging 30.7 points per game over their last six games. Jones has now totaled at least 15 touches in five straight games, which presents the floor owners were hoping for this offseason. They’re now running into a Chargers team that’s been pounded by running backs over the last month. The Broncos, Steelers, and Bears backfields were each able to score 33-plus PPR points against them. The last four starters (with their finish) were Philip Lindsay (RB6), James Conner (RB1), Derrick Henry (RB8), and David Montgomery (RB7). It surely didn’t help that they were missing Melvin Ingram for a few weeks and have been without defensive tackles Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane the last two weeks. If they remain out, no one should be shocked if Jones is a top-three running back this week. Even if they return, Jones needs to be locked into lineups with the way this offense is clicking. Knowing he’s now seen six-plus targets in five of the last seven games also gives him a stable floor should gamescript go south. Running backs have averaged 29.6 touches per game against the Chargers despite the low play counts, which does bode well for Williams, but his 17 touches over the last two weeks is hardly must-start material. He’s in the RB4 conversation.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: What will the coaching change mean for the Chargers backfield? My guess would be more carries as a whole. Since Gordon came back to the team, they’ve run the ball just 60 times in four games. That’s 15.0 rushing attempts per game. Many have ragged on Gordon for his 2.5 yards per carry, but the 1.9 yards per carry for Ekeler over that time goes unnoticed. Why? It’ll be interesting to say the least. The Packers defense has allowed at least 22 points to their opponents in five straight games, which should present plenty of scoring opportunities for Gordon and company. The Packers have also allowed 4.94 yards per carry, which is tied for the most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed eight rushing touchdowns, which is the second-highest mark in the league. They’ve been pretty neutral when it comes to production through the air to running backs, so this matchup should technically favor Gordon’s skill-set. With the change in coaching, you have to understand there could be drastic changes, but for Gordon, that’d be a good thing. He should be in lineups as an RB2 who will be a favorite of mine in tournaments. Ekeler is still going to be involved, though we don’t know to what extent. If the Chargers decide to cut down on the passing, it would remove a lot of his value. Still, the matchup is one of the better ones they’ve had in some time, so with the bye weeks in full effect, Ekeler retains low-end RB2 value.

WRs
Davante Adams: He hasn’t played or practiced since Week 4, so we could be without Adams once again this week, though he’s getting closer. If he’s on track to play, I’ll come back and update this later in the week. *Update* Adams was a limited participant in practice this week and is listed as questionable. It seems likely that he’ll give it a go. The Chargers are not a team to be worried about, though a setback is always a concern. When Adams takes the field, he has to be in lineups, but just dial back expectations into WR2 territory. 

Allen Lazard: With Adams out again last week, he was the receiver who stepped into the No. 1 role for the Packers. He played 45 snaps, while Allison played 42, Valdes-Scantling 41, and Kumerow 34. Lazard also led them in targets, catching all five passes that came his way for 42 yards against the Chiefs. The Chargers have been allowing a ton of mediocre games to wide receivers, but just three top-12 performances. There’ve been 12 different receivers who’ve wound up with 4-6 receptions, while there’s been just two with more than that. Because of that, 14 wide receivers have finished as top-50 options against them. Lazard has played all over the formation, so there’s not one particular cornerback matchup he’ll have. When teams do pass on the Chargers, they have success, as the 74.8 percent completion-rate and 9.21 yards per target they allow to wide receivers would suggest. Fantasy points against will tell you the Chargers allow the ninth fewest points to wide receivers, but on a per-target basis, they allow the sixth-most. He’s probably the best option on the Packers right now, though he’s still in WR4 territory with so much uncertainty. *Update* With Adams likely to return, we’re going to have to wait-and-see if Lazard has passed Valdes-Scantling on the depth chart. He comes with a lot of risk this week. 

Geronimo Allison: The Packers are running more four-wide sets in order to get Lazard into the slot with Allison, though Allison is still the primary slot receiver for this offense. Allison has been anything but reliable this year, as he’s topped out at 52 yards while totaling less than 35 yards in 6-of-8 games. The Chargers best cornerback last year may have been Desmond King, but he’s been bad this year, allowing 20-of-22 passing for 255 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage, including 6-of-6 passing to the Bears receivers last week. Allison is a starting receiver for Rodgers, so that has appeal, but he’s nothing more than a low-floor WR4/5 option.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He’s seen just 11 targets over the last four weeks while Davante Adams has been out of the lineup. He’s someone you can make the argument that he’s someone who belongs on waiver wires at this point. The Chargers haven’t allowed much volume to opponents and that’s leaked down to the receivers, as they have combined for just 15.9 targets per game against them. With Lazard moving into a bigger role, Allison hanging onto his, and Jake Kumerow seeing a big increase in snaps, you cannot rely on Valdes-Scantling in fantasy leagues right now. We’d need to see Lazard have a decrease in playing time to justify him, and it’s tough to see that happening.

Keenan Allen: He played through his hamstring injury last week and saw 10 targets, so we must assume he’s going to be good to go in this game. The matchup wasn’t good last week, but the Packers have been struggling to defend the wide receiver position as of late. Over their last four games, they’ve allowed an average of 41.5 PPR points per game to the position. Knowing that Williams and Allen make up 90 percent of the production of the Chargers receivers, we hope the new offense under interim coach Shane Steichen exploits the matchup. Allen will see a lot of Tramon Williams, the seasoned veteran who’s done a fine job in the slot this year, allowing just 8-of-15 passing for 112 yards in his coverage. Looking through the big games the Packers have allowed, none of the top-10 games they have allowed have gone to slot-heavy receivers. Sammy Watkins is the closest one, who finished with 5/45/0 on eight targets against them last week. This isn’t a matchup where Allen should go off, though there are some unknowns about the offense that benefit him. Plug him in as a high-end WR2 and hope for the best. This is not a week I’d consider him in cash.

Mike Williams: He’s someone I’ll admit I’m torn on moving forward. There is so much potential with him it’s kind of ridiculous. Over the last four weeks, he has 507 air yards, which leads the NFL. The receivers right behind him? Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Julian Edelman, and Mike Evans. Oddly enough, every one of them has at least 22.3 more PPR points. That’s the good. The bad is that he’s dropped five balls in the last six games, including a few touchdowns. Will Rivers stop trusting him? The reason to trust him is because there’s no one else. Keenan Allen is ailing, and the other receiver is Andre Patton. Williams should continue to see targets. The Packers aren’t shadowing right now, but rather playing sides, so Williams should see some of both Kevin King and Jaire Alexander. The one to target is King, who’s allowed a massive 18.9 yards per reception with a 61.2 percent catch-rate in his coverage, while Alexander has been limiting outside of the three touchdowns he’s allowed on 53 targets in coverage. The Packers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers over the last four weeks, so moving Williams out of the starting lineup would likely be a mistake. Keep him plugged in as a WR3 this week.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: He’s now played less than 62 percent of the snaps in each of the last two games, which has allowed them to make way for more 4WR sets. After seeing nine targets against the Eagles in Week 4, Graham hasn’t topped five targets in any of the following four games. The Chargers have allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this year, but all of them came in one game against the Texans. Outside of the Darren Fells/Jordan Akins duo, they haven’t allowed a tight end to record more than 3.6 PPR points. It’s quite odd, like they had a one-week slip-up against the Texans and then got back on track. Teams also haven’t tried to exploit the backup safeties they have out there, either. The 1.87 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is the 10th-highest mark in the league, but Graham is hardly a lock for more than four targets, so we can’t aggressively play him as a streamer.

Hunter Henry: We’d discussed how tough of a matchup it was for Henry last week, so to see him walk out of that Bears game with four catches for 47 yards, it’s not that bad. The Packers were a brutal matchup for tight ends last year, but with the new safety duo of Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage, it hasn’t been a matchup to worry about. They’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the tight end position this year which has been aided by three 63-plus-yard performances by Zach Ertz, Darrel Waller, and Travis Kelce. Each of them was able to post top-seven numbers against the Packers, with two of them coming over the last two weeks. Henry has averaged 7.7 targets per game since coming back to the lineup and knowing Allen is playing through a hamstring injury, that should remain intact. Henry is a top-eight play every week and this matchup is a plus, so don’t hesitate when slotting him in as a top-five play.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Total: 39.0
Line: CLE by 3.0

QBs
Baker Mayfield: It’s been about as bad of a season as possible for Browns fans, who were expecting a division champion. Instead, Mayfield has looked like a bust. If we were to remove what he did in 2018, everyone would be calling for the Browns to move on. But that’s the thing… we have seen him play well before. I’m expecting a coaching change at some point, though it may be this offseason. In fantasy, you’re able to simply avoid him while the nightmare continues this week. The Broncos have allowed just six passing touchdowns through eight games and have yet to allow a top-12 performance to a quarterback, which includes Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Gardner Minshew, and Jacoby Brissett. Meanwhile, Mayfield has yet to finish as a top-10 quarterback himself and now has a team-implied total of just 21 points. The only teams to allow fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks this year are the Patriots and the 49ers, who both have been accused of having easy schedules. You can’t say that about the Broncos. The minimal 6.51 yards per attempt combined with the fact that they’ll shadow Beckham with Chris Harris Jr. and you have yourself a non-relevant quarterback in fantasy football.

Brandon Allen: Now that we know Joe Flacco is out, we are forced to watch Allen lead the Broncos against the Browns. He played quite a bit in the preseason for the Rams, though he didn’t throw a single touchdown, while throwing three interceptions. The Browns have been a good matchup for opposing quarterbacks, as every non-Luke Falk quarterback has finished as a top-15 option, but it’s also important to note they were missing their two starting cornerbacks for multiple weeks. Whatever the case, Allen is being thrown into a bad situation. He will lead a run-first team that’s thrown the ball more than 34 times just twice all season, and one that has Fred Brown and DaeSean Hamilton as full-time receivers behind Sutton. He’s fortunate that Sutton can win in one-on-one situations but knowing the Browns secondary is back to full strength, it’s going to be rough for him. You’re not playing Allen in a game the Broncos are projected for just 18.0 points.

RBs
Nick Chubb: We’re nearing a return by Kareem Hunt (eligible in Week 10), so the Browns are likely to give Chubb one last game with massive touches. He’s totaled at least 17 touches in every game, including 20-plus touches in 6-of-7 games. That’s a workload you cannot avoid in fantasy and he proved why last week when he racked up 138 total yards against the Patriots. The matchup this week against the Broncos has been a good one for volume running backs. There’s been two running backs who’ve totaled at least 20 carries against them (Leonard Fournette and Josh Jacobs), and both of those running backs finished as top-seven running backs in those particular weeks. There’s been just one running back who’s recorded more than four catches or 34 yards through the air against them, so it hasn’t been one where running backs have been utilized through the air, but that’s really a secondary need for Chubb. The Browns need a win, so expect them to minimalize turnovers by running the ball a lot. The Broncos have faced a healthy amount of carries against them (24.1 per game) with Flacco under center, so knowing their offense may struggle a bit more, we are likely to see another 20-plus carry game out of Chubb. Lock him into lineups as a rock-solid RB1.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: With Flacco out of the lineup, you should fully expect the Broncos to go to an even more run-heavy approach with Brandon Allen under center. There’s already been enough volume around for both to be top-24 running backs, as Lindsay is currently the RB11 and Freeman is the RB23 in PPR formats. They’ve combined for 31.0 touches per game to this point, and are headed into a matchup with the Browns, who have seen an average of 29.6 touches against them. The lack of competency from the Browns offense has kept the defense on the field, and it has amounted to plenty of success for their opponents. The 4.71 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, though the only reason they don’t rank in the bottom-five for fantasy points allowed is due to the lack of touchdowns. They’ve allowed just four touchdowns on 170 carries this season. We know touchdowns can be a bit fluky, so following the per-play production makes more sense. Lindsay has totaled at least 15 touches in 6-of-8 games and remains the lead back on the ground. The lack of projected points is problematic, but Lindsay should be able to provide RB2 value in this game. Freeman’s touch totals over the last four games have been 15-16-14-13, so he’s locked into a viable fantasy role. He falls into the high-end RB3 territory in a game the Broncos should stick with the run as long as possible.

WRs
Odell Beckham: Here are Beckham’s finishes through the first seven games: 36-3-43-70-54-18-39. So, he’s had just one week as a top-12 receiver and two weeks as a top-30 receiver. He’s seen at least seven targets in 6-of-7 games, so it’s not the volume, either. This week is going to rather hard to get over that hump, as he’s got a date with Chris Harris Jr. in coverage. Here are the wide receivers he’s shadowed this year along with their production: Allen Robinson 4/41/0, Davante Adams 4/56/0, D.J. Chark 4/44/0, Keenan Allen 4/18/0, Tyreek Hill 3/74/1, and T.Y. Hilton 2/54/0. You can say that he’s pretty dang good and might be playing better than anyone in the game right now. Beckham should be considered just a high-end WR3, as his talent level is too high to rank lower than that, but his lack of production has to be accounted for.

Jarvis Landry: It’s very beneficial for Landry that Beckham will be tied up with Chris Harris Jr. this week, but the matchup against the Broncos hasn’t been very good for wide receivers in general. Through eight games, they’ve allowed just seven wide receivers to finish as top-36 options. Fortunately, a lot of them have been No. 2 options due to Harris taking away the No. 1 receiver. Landry will see a lot of Duke Dawson, who’s taken over the slot gig for them. He was the Patriots’ second-round pick in last year’s draft who wound up on injured reserve last year, but was traded to the Broncos this offseason. He’s only played four games as a starter, and has only been targeted six times, so it’s difficult to pass judgement just yet. Knowing Landry is a veteran, he should be able to win the matchup, but I don’t see the Browns passing a whole lot in this game unless they have to. He is slightly more appealing than Beckham in this matchup given their matchups, but he’s still in WR3 territory.

Courtland Sutton: The only Broncos wide receiver who comes with any possibly of starting in fantasy is Sutton. It’s tough, as Flacco was willing to throw in his direction even if he was draped in coverage, willing to let him win a contested catch situation. We haven’t seen him play with Brandon Allen yet, but we must hope that he latches on to his top target. Knowing DaeSean Hamilton and Fred Brown are his other options, he really should look Sutton’s way quite often. The issue, of course, is that the Browns will know exactly what they have to do to limit the Broncos passing game. We’re going to see him match-up with Denzel Ward for much of the day, a top-tier cornerback who was struggling earlier in the year, leading to him being shut down with a hamstring injury for multiple weeks. On the year, he’s still allowed just a 46.7 percent catch-rate, though the receptions he has allowed have gone for over 17 yards a pop. Knowing he’s the only show in town, he remains in the WR3/4 conversation, but it’s a scary proposition with Allen under center.

TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: The Browns tight end timeshare turned into a three-way last week, as Seals-Jones played 29 snaps, Pharaoh Brown played 26, and Demetrius Harris played 13. The crazy part was that Harris was the only one who saw targets, though he finished with just three of them. Over the last three games, they’ve all combined for just 13 targets, which is hardly enough to feel confident starting. The Broncos have required massive volume to produce anyway, as the 1.45 PPR points per target ranks as the second-best number in the league. Knowing the Browns are unlikely to generate many pass attempts in this game as the favorite, you’d be relying on a touchdown. The Broncos have allowed just one tight end touchdown on 61 targets through eight games, so feel free to look past these tight ends.

Noah Fant: The exit of Emmanuel Sanders from the offense seemed to open a new door of possibilities for Fant, as he tallied a career-high eight targets against the Colts. It may have only led to five catches for 26 yards, but that is good enough for a top-15 tight end performance in 2019. Will Brandon Allen target him as much as Flacco started to? The Browns aren’t a horrible matchup for tight ends, as they’ve allowed three tight ends to finish as top-eight options, though it’s important to note those tight ends were Delanie Walker, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews, all tight ends well above Fant’s level. In the other four games, no tight end has topped 26 yards against them. They’ve allowed four touchdowns on just 37 tight end targets, but are we expecting Allen to throw for touchdowns in this game they’re projected for just 18 points in? Fant has scored just once all season and has yet to top 37 yards, so it’s best to just wait and see what the Broncos offense will look like with Allen under center.