The Primer: Week 9 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers

Total: 41.0
Line: CAR by 3.5

QBs
Ryan Tannehill: It seems that pushing the ball down the field is the biggest difference in what Tannehill’s been doing, as his 9.1-yard average depth of target easily trumps the 7.4-yard average of Marcus Mariota. Despite that, Tannehill has completed 73 percent of his passes while Mariota completed just 59 percent of his. Now, to be fair, the Bucs are a soft defense that Tannehill should’ve done well against, but he’s looked far and away better than Mariota did through six games. The Panthers are going to bring a much tougher test despite what the 49ers did to them last week. They’ve generated a sack on 10.3 percent of dropbacks, the second-highest mark in the NFL, while allowing just 6.45 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. They have been one of the higher variance teams to project, though, as two quarterbacks were able to throw for 374-plus yards, while the other five quarterbacks failed to throw for more than 208 yards. All in all, they’ve allowed nine passing touchdowns and have nine interceptions, but volume has been the one area we can try to find value. Their opponents average 68.7 plays per game, which is the second highest mark in the league. It’s why we’ve seen four quarterbacks throw the ball at least 39 times against them. Still, the Titans don’t want to turn into a pass-first team while on the road against this pass-rush. Tannehill was a solid streaming option last week, but he’s likely not going to post top-18 numbers in this game.

Kyle Allen: It seems likely we’ll get another week of Allen under center, though Newton is nearing a return. Coming into that 49ers game, Allen had yet to throw an interception in his NFL career, so as bad as it was, it’s still just one week. The truth, however, is that he’s now thrown for less than 240 yards in each of the last four games and has totaled just three passing touchdowns in that stretch. While the Titans may have looked bad last week while allowing Jameis Winston 301 yards and two touchdowns, they’re not a plus-matchup for quarterbacks. They’ve held 7-of-8 quarterbacks to 7.5 yards per attempt or less, which would require 40 pass attempts to get to 300 yards. Allen hasn’t attempted more than 37 attempts and averages just 31.8 attempts. They Titans were also without top cornerback Adoree Jackson last week, which didn’t help matters. Despite seeing the fifth-most pass attempts this year, the Titans have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Allen has given you very little reason to play him outside of pristine matchups, and this isn’t one of them.

RBs
Derrick Henry: The Titans offensive success under Tannehill hasn’t bled much into Henry just yet but knowing how tough of a matchup the Bucs were on the ground, he deserves a pass. A big part of that is due to the fact that Dion Lewis has received exactly two touches over the last two games. Henry’s tallied at least 18 opportunities (carries and targets) in every game and is about to go against a defense that allows their opponents an average of 68.7 plays per game, the second highest number in the league. Not just that, either. They have allowed plenty of efficiency too, as the 4.91 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the third-most in football, while the 10 rushing touchdowns is the most in football. The only area they’ve slowed opposing running backs is through the air, as they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs. We know that Henry has totaled at least 15 carries in every game, so when we combine that with the Panthers allowing a touchdown every 15.5 carries (most often), we should expect massive results. Henry should be the sixth top-15 running back performance they’ve allowed this week, so start him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2.

Christian McCaffrey: The RB1, no matter what. That’s what you need to remind yourself any time you think about playing anyone else in your DFS lineup. After another top-six finish, McCaffrey has now finished as the RB9 or better in 14 of his last 16 games played. He’s a cheat code. Sure, the Titans are a solid run defense that’s allowed just one top-12 performance on the year, but don’t forget the 49ers were a team who hadn’t allowed a running back to finish better than the RB30 coming into last week’s matchup. The Titans have allowed just one team of running backs to total more than 104 yards on the ground, and that was the Colts way back in Week 2. But looking at the collection of running backs, they haven’t been anything to write home about. The 3.81 yards per carry has been one of the better marks in football, but the area McCaffrey can crush is through the air, as the Titans have allowed the fifth-most points through the air to running backs, including a seven-catch, 118-yard game to Austin Ekeler in Week 7. Remember: RB1, no matter what.

WRs
Corey Davis: It was frustrating to see Davis tally just two catches for nine yards in a plus-matchup against the Bucs last week, but it’s even more frustrating when you find out none of the Titans receivers played more than 62.7 percent of the snaps. Knowing that Davis had played at least 73 percent of the snaps in every game up until then, you have to wonder if this was by design or due to the illness he had early in the week. The good news is that Davis saw 138 air yards, a season-high, which ranked sixth among receivers for the week. No other Titans player has totaled more than 56 air yards over the last four weeks. The Panthers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, but a lot of that has come from pure volume, as the 1.45 PPR points per target they allow ranks as the fourth-fewest in the league. Receivers are averaging a massive 25.7 targets per game against them, which is much more than the Titans average of 16.5 targets per game to their receivers. The result of so many targets has led to 11 different wide receivers finishing with double-digit fantasy points against them. The notable part of that is that 10-of-11 receivers totaled at least seven targets, a number Davis has hit just once this year. It’s good to know Tannehill is willing to take shots down the field to Davis, but volume likely means more in this matchup. He should be considered a volatile WR4/5 this week, but not one to completely give up on.

A.J. Brown: He was able to salvage his fantasy day with a late touchdown, but the concern with Brown remains the limited targets, as he’s seen more than five targets just once all season. Not many receivers can produce with that type of volume, unless maybe Russell Wilson were throwing to them. Brown played just 61 percent of the snaps in Week 8, which seems to be around his max, as he’s yet to finish a game with more than 39 snaps. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. Here’s the stat I shared in Davis’ write-up above: The Panthers have allowed 11 different wide receivers to finish with double-digit fantasy points against them, but 10 of those receivers saw at least seven targets. The Panthers are likely to just play sides in this matchup, so Brown will see a mix of James Bradberry and Donte Jackson. His lack of snaps and targets make him nothing more than a hail-mary desperation WR5 this week.

Adam Humphries: He’s now totaled six targets in three of the last four games, yet hasn’t been able to crack 47 yards, and has still yet to score a touchdown this year. There’s an interesting tidbit that could apply in this game, though there’s a lot that has changed. Humphries came over from the Bucs, who played the Panthers twice a year. During last season, with a lot of similar personnel on defense, Humphries destroyed them in both matchups. He tallied 8/82/2 in the first game and then 7/61/1 in the second game. Again, he’s on a different team, but that’s the type of stuff you wonder gets discussed during team meetings. The Panthers have been beat by multiple slot-heavy receivers this year, too, allowing Chris Godwin two top-five performances, Dede Westbrook a top-20 performance, and Larry Fitzgerald a top-30 performance. No surprise, they were all targeted more than six times. Humphries should offer a semi-safe floor as a WR5 this week, but knowing the lack of role/targets, he’s not a recommended play.

D.J. Moore: Despite Allen’s limited passing volume, Moore has managed to see at least eight targets in each of the last three games. While they may not have amounted to elite performances, he’s been usable without Newton in the lineup, though he’s lacked a high ceiling all year. His finishes through the weeks are 31-14-34-53-20-20-48. The Titans were without Adoree Jackson last week and it showed as they allowed Mike Evans to do essentially whatever he wanted while racking up 11/198/2. Prior to that game, they hadn’t allowed a receiver to top 91 yards, so as expected, missing Jackson is a huge upgrade for the opposing passing game. He’s dealing with a foot injury that prevented him from practicing all last week, so there’s no guarantee he’s back. The cornerback duo would then be Malcolm Butler and LeShaun Sims on the perimeter. Moore lines up in Butler’s coverage more often than not. He’s not someone you need to run from in matchups, as he’s allowed 30-of-47 passing for 389 yards and three touchdowns this year. We know Moore’s range of outcomes by now (WR20-WR34), making him a middling WR3 in a decent matchup, especially if Jackson is out.

Curtis Samuel: His targets have varied a bit more than Moore’s have but he’s still seen at least six targets in each of the last six games. His measly 6.4 yards per target isn’t very good and you have to wonder if they start trying other things with him. His 159 air yards last week were the fourth-most among receivers, so the opportunity has been there, but Allen has struggled tremendously on his deep balls. On throws that go over 20 yards in the air, he’s completed just 3-of-18 for 109 yards. Only Sam Darnold has worse accuracy on deep balls. If the Titans are without Adoree Jackson, it would be huge for Samuel. LeShaun Sims would be the one to step into his place at LCB, and that’s where Samuel is at about half the time. Sims played in his place last week and allowed five catches for 76 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Jackson had allowed just 165 yards and one touchdown through seven games. If Jackson is held out again, Samuel receives a big upgrade into the low-end WR3 conversation with some upside. If Jackson plays, he’s just a WR3/4-type option who’s struggling to connect with Allen on the deep ball.

TEs
Jonnu Smith: Once we heard that Delanie Walker‘s injury was related to the broken ankle (where there was ligament damage) he suffered last year; it was concerning. Because of that, he’s likely to miss more than just one game (he’s since been ruled out for this game). Through seven games, the Panthers have allowed four top-12 tight end performances despite playing some lackluster competition. Outside of George Kittle, no tight end they’ve played saw more than five targets and none are inside the top-20 tight ends this year. When targeted, they allow points, as the 2.02 PPR points per target suggests. While wide receivers have averaged a massive 25.7 targets per game against them, you have to figure some of that leaks down into the tight ends, as the Titans don’t heavily target their receivers (average just over 15 targets per game). In his first game with Tannehill, Smith caught 6-of-7 balls for 78 yards and a score. While it was the Bucs, the Panthers have actually allowed more production on a per-target basis this year. With all the uncertainty at the tight end position, Smith is someone you can consider streaming in a plus-matchup.

Greg Olsen: And the beat goes on… In non-Bucs and non-Cardinals games, Olsen now averages just 4.3 targets, 2.0 receptions, 13.5 yards, and no touchdowns. This is not good. The Titans aren’t what you should consider a plus-matchup, either, as they’ve allowed just 61 percent of passes to be completed for just 7.0 yards per target. The two tight ends who finished as top-five options against the Titans were Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry, both tight ends that saw eight-plus targets. Outside of them, we haven’t seen anyone finish with more than 37 yards, though there have been four other tight ends score touchdowns in their matchups with the Titans, which obviously bodes well for fantasy production. Seeing they’ve now allowed six top-15 tight ends against them, it looks like a decent matchup, but the vitals say they’ve been very dependent on touchdowns, something Olsen has struggled with as he’s scored just 10 touchdowns over the last four years combined, a span of 39 games. He’s on the high-end TE2 radar due to the lack of options at the position, but he’s far from a sure thing for production this week.

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 48.5
Line: MIN by 2.5

QBs
Kirk Cousins: We’ve watched him be what might be the most efficient quarterback in football over the last four weeks, but does it end here? During that four-game stretch, he’s completed 91-of-116 passes (78.4 percent) for 1,262 yards (10.9 yards per attempt) and 10 touchdowns (8.6 percent touchdown-rate). He’s yet to throw more than 36 passes this year, which could be a problem against the Chiefs. Sure, we just watched Aaron Rodgers tag them for 305 yards and three touchdowns, but just 42 percent of his yardage came before the catch. The teams Cousins has played over the last four weeks have been the Giants (31st), Eagles (20th), Lions (17th), and Redskins (23rd), who are all in the bottom-half of the league when it comes to yards per attempt. The Chiefs have allowed the 13th fewest yards per attempt this year at just 7.19. If you were to remove Gardner Minshew‘s surprise in Week 1, they’ve allowed just 6.82 yards per attempt over the last seven games. Now, the hidden thing we need to watch is whether defensive tackle Chris Jones and defensive tackle Frank Clark are available for this game, as both missed last week’s game against the Packers. If they’re both able to take the field, Cousins will be under a bit more pressure, and limit his appeal. For now, consider him a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.

Patrick Mahomes: For now, we’ll assume Mahomes plays against the Vikings, though we don’t have any indication just yet. We do know that he practiced towards the end of last week. Prior to Case Keenum getting concussed, he was playing pretty well against the Vikings, completing 12-of-16 passes for 130 yards. The high completion percentage has kind of been a normal thing against the Vikings, as quarterback have combined for a 68.0 percent completion-rate against them. They’ve only allowed 6.78 yards per attempt, though, so it’s a lot of underneath stuff they’re willing to allow, which makes sense considering they’ve run zone coverage 69 percent of the time. That’s a 10 percent increase over the team who played in zone just 58.3 percent of the time in 2018. Because of that, we’ve seen more consistency against them, as three quarterbacks have been able to throw for at least 304 yards. Last year, there were just three quarterbacks who threw for more than 281 yards against them all season. It’s also worth noting that all three of those quarterbacks were on the road, which is where they’ll be this week. Speaking of on the road, there were just two quarterbacks who threw for more than one touchdown against them last year, and both came away from home. The only three quarterbacks who’ve been held to less than two passing scores against them this year have been Daniel Jones, Chase Daniel, and Case Keenum (who left hurt). If Mahomes is active, he should be in lineups as a high-end QB1. If he’s out and Matt Moore needs to make another start, he’d be nothing more than a middling QB2.

RBs
Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: This backfield has generated 29.3 carries per game and 5.0 receptions per game this year, and they’re now headed into a matchup with the Chiefs, who have been one of the least efficient teams when it comes to stopping running back. There have been 11 running backs who’ve finished as top-34 options against them, with three running backs finishing inside the top-10. You know there’s going to be plenty of volume for Cook when you see that three different running backs have totaled at least 26 carries against the Chiefs. The 4.94 yards per carry they’ve allowed is the most in the NFL, while the 116.0 PPR points through the air ranks as the second-most in the NFL. What do you get when you have a gamescript running back walking into a matchup with a team that sees an average of 30.4 running back touches per week? You get a smash spot for Cook, who is coming off 10 days rest. The Chiefs have already allowed four different running backs 100-plus rushing yards… Cook should be the fifth. There have been three games this season where Mattison has received double-digit carries, so knowing the Chiefs are not afraid to allow startable fantasy games to backup running backs, he has RB4 appeal as well.

LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams: Why did McCoy have to go and fumble away the starting job last week? We don’t know that to be the case, but it certainly doesn’t help his chances. While the Vikings have allowed a lot more production through the air this year, running backs haven’t had much success. Through eight games, they’ve allowed just two running backs score more than 13.1 PPR points, while just four of them have been able to reach double digits. Part of the issue is that just two running backs have been able to tally more than 14 carries, and none of them have totaled more than four receptions. Keep in mind that McCoy and Williams have had trouble getting volume in their own right, let alone in a matchup that’s been tough to find touches. They rank as a top-five unit against running backs, though that’s largely in part to the one rushing touchdown they’ve allowed on 160 carries. The 3.99 yards per carry and 6.23 yards per target aren’t completely avoidable numbers, but it appears they set up a brick wall when push comes to shove. In what appears to be an ugly timeshare, it’s difficult to trust McCoy as anything more than an RB3, though you’re likely starting him with four teams on bye. The question is: How much work will Williams get now that McCoy has fumbled twice in the last four games? He’s tallied just 20 touches over the last three games, so you can’t say he’s a must-play, especially when you consider he’s averaged just 2.5 yards per carry on those touches. Knowing the matchup is difficult to begin with, it should be easy to just let this situation play out before trusting Williams as anything more than an RB4.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: It was good to see Diggs take advantage of the opportunity he had last week, as it appears Thielen will be back in the lineup versus the Chiefs. We’ve seen the Chiefs allow 10 different receviers finish as top-36 options against them, though just five of them have finish as top-24 options, which is what most rely on Diggs for (WR2-type production). The good news is that all but one of those receivers were primary perimeter receivers, which is where Diggs plays. More good news is that the Chiefs have been without Kendall Fuller, who fractured his thumb, and may be without another starting cornerback in Bashaud Breeland, who injured his shoulder in the loss to the Packers. As a whole, this secondary has played better than many expected, as they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest points to the wide receiver position, including just one wide receiver performance over 15.6 PPR points since back in Week 1. With all the injuries piling up, the game is looking better for Diggs, though this should be a run-heavy game for the Vikings. Diggs should be considered a middling WR2 this week if Fuller and Breeland are out but would move down into low-end WR2 territory if they play. He’s now tallied 108-plus yards in 4-of-5 games, but knowing the schedule, it was a good time for him to do so. He’s still seen more than eight targets just once all year.

Adam Thielen: It seems like the Vikings are planning on having Thielen back for this game, but make sure you stay tuned to this paragraph, as I’ll update it Saturday morning with his injury designation and practice participation. Diggs has started going bananas as of late, and though Thielen still leads the team in touchdowns, Diggs is now averaging more targets and yardage than him. Coming off a hamstring injury has the added concern of re-injury, so we must temper expectations for him this week. The Chiefs have allowed just six wide receiver touchdowns through eight games, including just three of them over the last seven games. You’d have to go back to Week 4 to find the last time they allowed a receiver more than 14.5 PPR points. It’s not as good of a matchup as some were expecting, though it’d certainly help if they were missing both Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland. Knowing Thielen hasn’t seen more than eight targets in a game even when healthy, it doesn’t make you feel great about him in this matchup. He should be considered a high-end WR3 who you hope exceeds expectations.

Tyreek Hill: Things weren’t so bad with Matt Moore under center last week, as Hill saw a team-high nine targets, generating 6/76/0. Moore slightly underthrew him on a deep ball early in the game that could’ve been that 70-plus yard touchdown, though that won’t show on the stat sheet. We expect Mahomes back for this game, but Hill is startable no matter who’s under center. The Vikings have a rep of being one of the best pass defenses around, but they haven’t been a team you must avoid this year. We’ve watched 11 receivers tally at least 11.9 PPR points against them, which happens to be the average number it took to finish as a top-36 wide receiver in 2018. There’s just one team in the NFL who’s allowed more of those performances, and that is the Falcons who’ve allowed 12 of them. On the year, the Vikings have allowed over a 70 percent catch-rate to wide receivers, including a touchdown ever 14.6 targets, which is the eighth most often in the league. Xavier Rhodes is a bigger cornerback who can out-physical most receivers, but he won’t be trusted one-on-one with Hill. This matchup is not one to fear, though he may have a slightly lower ceiling due to the Vikings keeping the play in front of them for the most part. You should have Hill cemented in your lineup as a low-end WR1 now that we know he’s essentially quarterback-proof (though we already knew that).

Sammy Watkins: Upon his return to the starting lineup, Watkins saw a rock-solid eight targets. He may not have had a massive game, but the consistency of targets coming his way this year is something that should be valued, especially with Hill back on the field, as Watkins continues to see less attention. The Vikings have allowed 11 top-36-type performances this year, which ranks as the second-most in the league. While Hill owners are looking for a much higher ceiling, Watkins owners just want reliable WR3 production, which receivers have had in this matchup. There’s not one cornerback in particular Watkins will face, as he’s been moved all over the formation and actually runs 61 percent of his routes from the slot. The Vikings have Mike Hughes in that role since returning from injury, and he’s been respectable while allowing 13-of-21 passing for 108 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. Knowing how decent this matchup has been through eight weeks, Watkins can be started as a low-end WR3 who should present a stable floor.

Mecole Hardman: His targets have been diminishing ever since we saw Hill re-enter the lineup. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen just four, then three, then two targets. Sure, he’s broke two plays for touchdowns in those games, but you don’t want to rely on the fourth option in the passing game for consistent production. He played just 9-of-59 snaps against the Packers. While the Vikings have been a somewhat giving team to fantasy receivers, they’ve done a good job limiting the big plays. He’s nothing more than a last-second emergency hail-mary option.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: We’ve seen a recent surge in Vikings tight end production, though it coincides with Thielen’s absence in the lineup. Over the last two weeks, the Rudolph/Irv Smith Jr. tandem has combined for 16 receptions, 156 yards, and a touchdown. This all comes after the duo combined for just 16 receptions for 165 scoreless yards through the first six weeks of the season. The Chiefs may have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to the tight end position, but much of it is due to the volume they’ve seen. They’ve faced an NFL-high 76 targets over their first eight games of the season, but they have allowed just the third-fewest fantasy points per target to the position. The only tight ends to register more than 39 yards against them have been those who’ve seen at least seven targets. Knowing that targets have been extremely difficult to come by for Vikings tight ends, it’s not a week to consider Rudolph an attractive streaming option.

Travis Kelce: Who knew the key to unlocking Kelce’s touchdown upside was starting Matt Moore? With so many weapons around, it’s hard for teams to assign a defender to Kelce full-time, who’s kept in to block a lot of the time. Similar to his own team, the Vikings have seen an NFL-high 76 targets by tight ends. They’ve allowed 51 receptions for 459 yards on those targets but have yet to allow a touchdown to them. The measly 1.28 PPR points per target ranks as the second-lowest number in the league. But here’s the thing: When you see the consistent target share that Kelce does, production can be found in a matchup like this. We saw both Darren Waller post 13/134/0 on 14 targets and Austin Hooper post 9/77/0 on nine targets. The tight end position is based so much on volume that you can’t stress about the matchup too much, especially when you’ve seen results like those from Waller and Hooper. Kelce should be inked in pen into your starting lineup every week, as he’s yet to finish worse than TE13 and he’s been a top-five option in three of them. Because of that, he’s always in play for cash lineups, even in what looks like a semi-tough matchup on paper.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 43.5
Line: IND by 1.0

QBs
Jacoby Brissett: After a brutal matchup with the Broncos, Brissett has another tough matchup on the docket. After allowing Tom Brady and Russell Wilson to finish as the QB7 and QB5 over the first two weeks, they traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and it’s made everything better. Since then, they’ve not allowed a top-15 quarterback performance. They’ve not allowed more than two passing touchdowns, and they’ve intercepted at least one pass in every game, including two or more interceptions in 4-of-5 games. Scoring has been an issue overall for opponents, as they’ve allowed 17 points or less in three of their last four games. The thing that could tilt the Colts way is Mason Rudolph turning the ball over and putting them in better field position, though that’s not something you rely on for fantasy purposes with a quarterback. This game is in Pittsburgh, which will be a tough place to play, though it helps they’ll be coming off a short week. But the fact remains that they’ve now allowed just six touchdowns while intercepting 10 passes over their last five games, and Brissett has failed to throw a touchdown in two of his last three games. He’s not a recommended streamer in single quarterback leagues in Week 9.

Mason Rudolph: It was good to see him turn the ship around as Monday night went on because it started out rather horrifically. Fortunately, he has some playmakers surrounding him on offense who can make him look a bit better. As for fantasy, he’s now thrown for less than 230 yards in each start but he does have two touchdown passes in 3-of-4 games. With James Conner potentially out, the Steelers may need to lean on Rudolph a bit more than usual. The Colts defense has been what you’d describe as middle of the pack, as they’ve allowed 21.6 points per game (14th-best), 7.69 yards per attempt (11th-highest), and a 4.74 percent touchdown-rate (15th-highest). There’ve been 5-of-7 quarterbacks who’ve been able to post competent fantasy games against them with at least 15.5 fantasy points, so they’re a streaming matchup, but Rudolph fits into the conversation with the two quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota) who fell outside that range. The four 300-yard games the Colts allowed were to Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson, a conversation Rudolph doesn’t belong in. One plus for him is that the Colts zone scheme allows a lot of underneath completions, something he’ll likely utilize quite a bit. Still, he’s not a recommended streaming option in what projects as a low-scoring game.

RBs
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: Despite having what would be described as a workhorse role behind a dominant offensive line, Mack has been a disappointment this year. He hasn’t finished as an RB1 since way back in Week 1 and he’s finished outside the top-20 running backs in three of the last six games. A matchup with the Steelers run defense isn’t likely to help him, either. Through eight weeks of the NFL season, they’ve still yet to allow a top-16 running back performance. We’ve seen five running backs rush for at least 60 yards, but none have been able to top 79 yards. The 3.75 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks as the fifth-best in football. The one area for hope with the Colts offense is the fact that the Steelers are coming off a short week and their opponents have averaged 66.5 plays per game, which is one of the higher marks in the league. If Mason Rudolph can’t sustain drives without James Conner, we could see a high time of possession for the Colts, which would obviously benefit Mack. In games they haven’t fallen behind quickly (there’s been just one such game), Mack has totaled at least 16 carries in every game. He’s also seen seven targets over the last three games, which does add appeal to his fantasy floor. This matchup is tough, but Mack should remain in lineups as an RB2. Hines has been tallying just 2-9 touches per game and will have a bigger role in games the Colts fall behind, though this shouldn’t be one of them. He’s not a fantasy option right now.

Jaylen Samuels: He practiced in full last week, so we must assume he was close to returning. With James Conner potentially on the shelf, Samuels should enter into the lead back role. The matchup with the Colts actually suits Samuels’ skill-set quite well, as they’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher in the 23 regular season games under Matt Eberflus. They were a defense that allowed 833 yards through the air to running backs last year, and though teams haven’t chosen to attack them as much, the opportunity is still there in the zone defense, as they’re allowing similar production per target. Just go back to the Week 1 game when Austin Ekeler was able to generate six catches for 96 yards and two touchdowns through the air against them. In the two games he played real snaps with Rudolph, Samuels saw 12 targets, catching 11 of them for 68 yards. Some will be trying to figure out the carry split between him and fourth-stringer Trey Edmunds, but the receptions is where the value will be in this matchup. Samuels has the looks of a safe floor RB2/3 this week who can have some upside if he gets as much work as I think he will in the screen game. If Conner is able to suit up, Samuels still has an important role that should net 10-12 touches, which would leave him in the high-end RB4 range. Conner didn’t practice on Wednesday and it seems like he’s been injured every other week, so it’d make sense to not rush him back from his latest injury. If he does play, he should be in lineups as an RB2.

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: Any matchup will seem better than the one he has last week, as Chris Harris Jr. has completely shut down No. 1 wide receivers. The Steelers don’t have a shadow cornerback this year, as they’re playing sides with Joe Haden and Steven Nelson. The Colts have used Hilton in the slot just 26.5 percent of the time this year, but you have to wonder if they up that mark against the Steelers, who’ve struggled with slot receivers. Phillip Dorsett went for 4/95/2, Tyler Lockett for 10/79/0, Julian Edelman 6/83/0, and even Dante Pettis was able to find the end zone. It’s important to note that much of that came before Minkah Fitzpatrick arrived. Since his arrival, no receiver has totaled more than 12.2 PPR points, and that was Mike Williams who saw 10 targets. Now, to be fair, they haven’t played a high-powered passing attack in that stretch, but the Colts don’t exactly fit that description, either. Knowing Hilton has finished as the WR50 and WR52 in two of the last three games, it’s concerning, but he should remain in lineups as the Colts source of moving the ball this week. Consider him a mid-to-low-end WR2, though he’s not someone to consider for cash games. *Update* Hilton has suffered a calf injury that will reportedly sideline him for multiple weeks. His replacement in the offense will likely be Parris Campbell, though it remains a tough matchup for receivers. Campbell is nothing more than a hail-mary WR5. 

Zach Pascal: Even with Parris Campbell active, we saw Pascal play 59 snaps, though it didn’t amount to much as he saw just one target. He lines up all over the field, so he’ll see a mix of all the Steelers cornerbacks. Over the last five games, they’ve allowed just four receivers to finish with more than 9.1 PPR points, including none of them to hit more than 12.2 points. The lack of upside combined with the risk is too much in a matchup like this.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: It’s good to see people remember how good Smith-Schuster is, though he’s going to have tons of consistency issues with Rudolph as his quarterback. He may have wound up with 103 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins, but if you watched that game, you know it should’ve been much more. The Colts aren’t a team you need to shy away from, as they’ve played just five receivers who’ve seen more than six targets. Each of those receivers scored at least 12.6 PPR points and finished as the WR26 or better with four of them tallying 100-plus yards. They have been dealing with issues in their secondary, as Pierre Desir was held out with a hamstring injury, while Quincy Wilson was a healthy scratch. It’s left them with rookie Rock Ya-Sin, Marvel Tell, and Kenny Moore as the three starters. Ya-Sin has struggled a bit in his rookie season, allowing a 125.2 QB Rating in his coverage, while Tell has played just 40 snaps all season. Smith-Schuster will see Moore on a lot of his snaps, as he’s the primary slot cornerback. Moore is the best of the bunch, as he’s yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage, but he has allowed a 74.2 percent catch-rate. Smith-Schuster should see a tad more targets with Conner potentially out of the lineup, so keep him rolling as a mid-to-low-end WR2.

Diontae Johnson: We compared them last week, so why not keep that train going? Since Johnson was promoted into the starting lineup five games ago, here’s the splits between him and Smith-Schuster.

We keep expecting things to even out with Smith-Schuster becoming the clear-cut top option, but they haven’t just yet. Both have been viable options with Rudolph under center, and even though a few of the touchdowns have required fluky yards after the catch, they still count. The Colts have allowed multiple top-32 receivers in three of their last five games, so they’re not immune to allowing a couple receivers to post usable games. He’s likely going to see a lot of fellow rookie Rock Ya-Sin in coverage, which isn’t a bad thing. Ya-Sin has allowed 19-of-29 passing for 317 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage this year. It’s possible that Pierre Desir is able to return from his hamstring injury, but we don’t know just yet. Johnson definitely concerns me from a floor perspective with Rudolph, but he’s posted three games as the WR26 or better, so we have to take notice. He can be considered a somewhat reliable WR4 receiver, though the numbers say he should be even higher than that.

TEs
Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle: This tight end duo is one of the worst to project every week, as they seemingly alternate production without any sense of reason. Doyle has played nearly double the snaps, has run 20 more routes, and one more target, but Ebron has 22 more yards and two more touchdowns. This is similar to the way things were last year, as all the vitals had Doyle as the better tight end to play, but Ebron has produced when called upon. The Steelers have allowed top-12 tight end performances in 4-of-7 games this year, including the TE1 performance to Hunter Henry when he posted 8/100/2 against them in Week 6. They’ve had a brutal schedule to this point, which has to be taken into consideration, as the four tight ends who’ve performed well against them were Henry, Will Dissly, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews, all stud tight ends. Despite that tough competition, they’ve allowed a below-average 7.04 yards per target. The reason they’ve allowed so many fantasy points is due to the four touchdowns they’ve allowed to the position. We know that’s Ebron’s territory, so he’s the one I’d say should be the high-end TE2 here, though it’s probably going to be Doyle because that’s just how the tight end position works. *Update* With Hilton out of the lineup, these two are in for a lot more work/opportunity. Ebron moves into the low-end TE1 conversation, while Doyle can be considered a semi-decent streaming option, though his ceiling is more limited. 

Vance McDonald: It’s been a miserable season for McDonald, who seemed to benefit from Rudolph’s presence when he took over in Week 2 for an injured Ben Roethlisberger. He scored two touchdowns on seven targets in that game. Since that game, he’s totaled just 10 targets over a span of four games played, catching eight of them for 68 scoreless yards. That’s 14.8 PPR points over a span of four weeks. There were five tight ends who scored more than that in Week 8 alone. There’s been plenty of success against the Colts this year, as they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. There have been eight different tight ends who’ve totaled 7.1 or more PPR points against the Colts through their seven games. While that may not seem like much, it’d be considered mid-to-high-end TE2 production. We could see more pass attempts if Conner sits, and therefore more available for McDonald. Knowing the Colts have allowed a 73.7 percent completion-rate to tight ends (seventh-highest mark in the league), we could see Rudolph build some confidence while targeting McDonald, though it’s worth noting the Dolphins allowed the highest percentage of targets coming into Monday night’s game. He’s nothing more than a high-end TE2 with his lack of performance, but the matchup is another good one.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Total: 41.0
Line: NYJ by 5.5

QBs
Sam Darnold: Remember just a few weeks back when Darnold threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys and everyone wanted to crown him as the next great quarterback? The funny thing is that I do believe he’s going to be good, but his inconsistency is (and has been) very real. There were glimpses of what might be a good quarterback last year, too, but there are also glimpses of a quarterback who’s playing scared. Fortunately, he’s now going to play against the Dolphins. There has not been a quarterback who’s finished outside the top-16 quarterbacks against them this year. Every quarterback has totaled at least 15.6 fantasy points, and that includes Case Keenum who completed just 13 passes in Week 6. The ridiculous efficiency they allow through the air has made every quarterback relevant. They’ve yet to play a game and allow less than two passing touchdowns. They’ve allowed 8.95 yards per attempt on the year. Just how ridiculous is that? Patrick Mahomes averaged 8.78 yards per attempt in his record-breaking 2018 season. If you’re concerned about the pass attempts against the Dolphins, that’s a realistic concern, though no quarterback has topped 36 pass attempts against them, and 6-of-7 have totaled 32 or less, yet they’ve all had success. Darnold should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this week. As a bonus, do you think Adam Gase would take the foot off the throttle against his old team? Me neither.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: You can’t say he doesn’t make things interesting. He threw two touchdown passes against the Steelers, which is something just one other quarterback has been able to do over their last five games. The Dolphins have actually averaged 17.0 points per game over the last three weeks, which is a significant improvement. The Jets defense has allowed 26.4 points per game (8th-most) and just traded away one of their best defensive linemen (Leonard Williams), while losing linebacker C.J. Mosley for at least the next month. The crazy part is that the Jets have allowed just two quarterbacks to throw more than one touchdown. The nine passing touchdowns they’ve allowed is the eighth-lowest number in the league. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they’ve only generated a sack on 3.3 percent of dropbacks, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. That’s massive for Fitzpatrick, as the Dolphins line has allowed him to be sacked on 10.1 percent of his dropbacks. Teams have averaged a massive 68.3 plays per game against the Jets, while the Dolphins have averaged just 59.3 plays per game. The increase in plays could raise the fantasy floor for Fitzpatrick but knowing he can get benched/pulled any minute, it removes any though of potentially streaming him.

RBs
Le’Veon Bell: It’s been a disaster for Bell over the last few weeks, but if there’s a remedy for his struggles, it’s the Dolphins. No matter which way you want to attack them with running backs, they can be destroyed. They’ve allowed a massive 4.86 yards per carry (4th-most) and 8.12 yards per target (most in NFL), while allowing 10 total touchdowns through seven games. The 2.40 PPR points per target they’re allowing to running backs is almost a full 20 percent higher than the closest team (Chiefs). Six different running backs have scored at least 15.6 PPR points against them, including four who’ve been able to score 21.8 or more. Bell has tallied 141-of-165 available touches to Jets running backs, so when you see the Dolphins face an average of 33.4 running back touches per game, it should get you excited. Bell should be in lineups as an elite RB1 and he’s someone you can play in both cash and tournament lineups.

Mark Walton: With Kenyan Drake out of the picture, Walton totaled 14 touches in a brutal matchup against the Steelers. He’s now totaled 12, 15, and 14 touches over the last three games, which offers fantasy value. The Jets have been struggling against the run and trading away interior lineman Leonard Williams surely won’t help. They also got word that linebacker C.J. Mosley would be out 5-6 weeks. There have been eight running backs who’ve totaled at least 12 touches against the Jets, and each of them were able to finish inside the top-36 running backs with at least 10.4 PPR points. The severe downside with Walton is that the Dolphins seem locked into Kalen Ballage around the goal-line, as he’s seen five carries inside the five-yard-line, while Walton has just one. Not only are scoring opportunities hard to come by for the Dolphins players, but knowing he’ll need to break a longer run to get in lowers appeal. The Jets have allowed eight rushing touchdowns this year, which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league. The odd part, however, is that they’ve allowed just 3.30 yards per carry on the year, which ranks as the second-best number in the league. Touchdowns can be a bit fluky and knowing Walton is losing goal-line duties makes him a low-upside RB3/4 option who should give you a 6-8-point floor in PPR formats, but he’s not exciting.

WRs
Robby Anderson: It’s not going to make fantasy owners happy but targeting Anderson hasn’t been a good thing for Darnold. When targeting him, he’s posted a 46.0 QB Rating, as three interceptions have come when targeting him. Still, he’s done it with regularity, as Anderson has totaled 7-8-8-6 targets in the four games Darnold’s played. He’s had some tough matchups without a doubt, so if there’s a chance to get back on track, it’s in this game against the Dolphins who have allowed 22.8 percent of receptions go for 20-plus yards, which is the second-highest mark in the NFL, behind only the Bengals. Their top cornerback Xavien Howard is going to be out for this game, leaving them starting some combination of Eric Rowe, Jomal Wiltz, Ryan Lewis, Chris Lammons, and Nik Needham. No, I didn’t make those names up. The Jets have played nine receivers who’ve seen six or more targets, and eight of them have finished as top-36 options. If Anderson is on your team, stick him in your lineup as a WR3 with upside.

Demaryius Thomas: Over his four games with the Jets, he’s totaled 27 targets, or 6.8 per game. If we were guarantee those targets against the Dolphins, he’d be ranked as a WR2/3 option this week. They’re allowing a massive 2.19 PPR points per target to wide receivers, and every wide receiver not named James Washington who’s seen more than five targets has finished as a top-36 wide receiver. The struggle is finding the targets to go around, as the Dolphins have faced just 17.4 wide receiver targets per game, which is one of the lowest marks in the league. Teams simply haven’t had to throw the ball a ton to beat the Dolphins, though the Jets are in major need of a confidence builder. How about the fact that the Dolphins have allowed a touchdown every 9.4 targets to receivers? Keep in mind that’s with Xavien Howard on the field for most of the time. He’s going to miss time with a knee injury, which just allows for more efficiency. Thomas has the looks of a rock-solid WR4 this week and one with top-24 upside.

Jamison Crowder: After seeing 26 targets in his first two games with Darnold, Crowder has seen just five targets in each of the last two games. Knowing the Dolphins lack a competent pass-rush, we shouldn’t see Darnold check-down as much this week, though the matchup is a good one for Crowder. The Dolphins are rotating slot coverage and the combination of Nik Needham and Chris Lammons allowed 4-of-4 passing for 61 yards and a touchdown last week. The Dolphins have allowed seven touchdowns in the slot on the season, so it’s possible we see Crowder have a big game here, though it’s tough to say with both Anderson and Thomas ahead of him on the pecking order. If Darnold wants to build some confidence, the short depth of target and great matchup with Crowder makes sense. He’s no sure thing, but he’s on the WR4 radar this week.

DeVante Parker: It’s far from sexy but Parker has now totaled at least 55 yards and/or a touchdown in 6-of-7 games with the only exception coming against the Patriots. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, he’s seeing plenty of targets and has finished as a top-26 PPR option in three of the last four weeks. There have also been 13 wide receivers who’ve posted top-36 fantasy games against the Jets this year, which is considered a usable (WR3) performance. Trumaine Johnson hurt his ankle last week and wound up playing just 12-of-74 snaps against the Jaguars, so he may be unavailable for this game. That would leave them with Darryl Roberts and Nate Hairston at cornerback. The two have combined to allow a 68.6 percent completion-rate in their coverage with 11.6 yards per reception. The worst matchup against the Jets has been in the slot, which is not an area Parker goes very often. He should be able to produce a solid floor as a WR3/4 in this game.

Preston Williams: He’s been getting the targets, though he hasn’t done much with them. He’s yet to have less than six targets in a game but has just one game with more than four receptions, and he hasn’t scored since way back in Week 1. His weekly finishes have been 46-49-46-42-61-21-54, so consistently in the WR4/5 conversation, which makes sense this week against the Jets. They’ve allowed 16 different wide receivers score 8.8 or more PPR points against them this year, which is typically enough to get into WR4 territory. On a per-target basis, they’ve been extremely average, allowing 8.07 yards per target, a 62.7 percent completion-rate, and a touchdown every 19.1 targets, which are all around the league average. They may be without their top cornerback Trumaine Johnson this week, though he hasn’t been anything great anyway. Williams is in the WR4/5 conversation who comes with a higher floor than most in that territory considering his target floor.

TEs
Chris Herndon: He may return to the lineup this week, but when contemplating a pass-catcher coming off a multi-week (in his case multi-month) injury like a hamstring, there’s always the risk of re-injury. Not just that, but he’s also in a brand-new offense, so they could ease him back in. We also just watched Ryan Griffin score two touchdowns last week, so they may not feel the need to rush Herndon. The Dolphins are obviously a plus-matchup for all skill-position players, but when trying to figure out the pecking order of the Jets offense, Herndon would likely be fifth behind Anderson, Thomas, Crowder, and Bell. It’s the issue we saw with Vance McDonald last week. Teams of tight ends are seeing an average of just 6.0 targets per game against them, which is why they’ve allowed the 13th-fewest points to the position despite a massive 9.60 yards per target, which is the second-highest mark in the league. With tight ends, it’s tough to come by sure things, so if Herndon suits up, he deserves streaming consideration, but you can likely find safer options. If he sits out, Griffen would enter the streaming conversation in his place as someone who’s scored three touchdowns over the last three games with Darnold. *Update* It now seems like Herndon is likely to miss this game after Adam Gase expressed concern about his availability. 

Mike Gesicki: So much for the progress we were seeing in Gesicki’s game logs. After back-to-back 40-plus-yard games, Gesicki fell back into the rabbit hole with a 10-yard performance against the Steelers. He’s seen more than four targets twice this year, but both games were spread out, so there’s been no consistency in his target share. Now onto the Jets, a team that’s continually stopped tight ends in their path, as they’ve allowed just 8.1 PPR points per game to the position as a whole, which ranks fifth-best in the league. Every major statistic for tight ends is a below-average matchup against the Jets, as their yards per target, completion percentage, touchdown rate, and yards per reception are in the red. Gesicki shouldn’t be owned in redraft leagues.