Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Total: 46.0
Line: NE by 12.5

QBs
Baker Mayfield: Here’s a fun fact: If you were to have started Nick Boyle in your fantasy lineup over whichever quarterback played the Patriots, you’d have more fantasy points with Boyle. It has not been pretty for quarterbacks playing the Patriots. They’ve completed just 50.8 percent of their passes. They’ve sacked the opposing quarterback 10.6 percent of the time. They’ve allowed 5.0 yards per attempt. They’ve allowed just one touchdown pass while intercepting 18 of them. Guys, it’s ridiculous. We’ve gotten to the point where you really don’t start anyone against them if you don’t have to. Not one quarterback has averaged more than 5.87 yards per attempt or scored more than 9.7 fantasy points. Mayfield himself has just five touchdown passes and 11 interceptions through six games. While he’s likely to bounce back at some point, this is probably not the time to expect that.

Tom Brady: We’ve been through this before and the trend hasn’t stopped, so it bears repeating. Despite outscoring their opponents 223-48 this year (WHAT), Brady has averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game. That’s huge for his fantasy projections, as it gives him more of a stable floor for a pocket passer regardless of gamescript. He’s now thrown one or less touchdowns in three of the last four games (he had two rushing touchdowns in one of them), so maybe that’s why the Patriots felt the need to go out and trade for Sanu? Whatever the case, the Browns have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to every quarterback not named Luke Falk. Every quarterback not named Luke Falk has finished as a top-15 fantasy quarterback against them, which includes Marcus Mariota and Jimmy Garoppolo. They’ve only faced 31.5 pass attempts per game, which bodes well for Brady, too. The touchdown-rate of 6.35 percent should allow him to find his way back into the end zone on multiple occasions. The only concerning part is that the Browns have averaged a 9.1 percent sack-rate, which ranks fourth in the NFL, and Brady’s QB Rating under pressure is the fifth worst in football. Still, he’s going to do damage when kept clean, as practically every other quarterback has done against the Browns. Consider him a middling QB1 this week who comes with a high floor. *Update* Myles Garrett has been added to the injury report mid-week with a knee injury, which is never a good thing. This would certainly upgrade Brady’s outlook. 

RBs
Nick Chubb: We’ve watched Chubb’s opportunity vary from week-to-week as the offense continues to struggle, but he’s now totaled at least 20 touches in 5-of-6 games. It’d be nice to see his role in the passing game be a bit more stable, but it’s worth noting he caught a season-high five passes before their bye week. Now on to the Patriots, the matchup that makes fantasy owners quiver. Opponents have averaged just 15.9 carries per game against them, while averaging just 3.62 yards per carry. They are one of two teams who’ve still yet to allow a running back touchdown. The other team is the 49ers, who held Chubb to his worst finish of the year (RB31). Even when running backs have been targeted in the passing game, they’ve allowed a league-low 1.11 PPR points per target. The fact that the Browns are projected for just over 16 points is concerning, too. There have been just seven running back touches inside the red zone against the Patriots, while every other team has allowed 16-plus. I’m a huge fan of Chubb and his game, but expectations need to be dialed back in a matchup with the team who’s yet to allow a running back finish higher than the RB28 on the week. Chubb is just a middling RB2 this week who you’re hoping can break a long run.

Sony Michel and James White: Suddenly, after his three-touchdown performance, Michel ranks fifth in rushing touchdowns. Prior to the season, I said that if you were gambling, Michel would be one of the top-10 running backs with a shot at double-digit touchdowns. It was good to see after he was tied with Brady for carries inside the five-yard-line coming into the game. The Browns are a team that’s already allowed four different running backs to finish as top-six fantasy options. The good news for Michel is that most of the work has been done on the ground, as we’ve watched both Matt Breida and Chris Carson tally over 110 rushing yards. The Browns have now allowed 4.99 yards per carry on the season, which is tied for the highest mark in the league, so it’s not just about volume, though running backs have averaged a rather-high 24.0 carries per game against the Browns. They’ve only allowed a rushing touchdown every 36.0 carries, which is actually a top-15 mark in the league. It’s tough to ever even consider benching Michel with how many scoring opportunities the Patriots have and it should be no different in this game, as the Browns have allowed at least 25 points in 4-of-6 games, including each of their last three games. Michel should remain in lineups as a middling RB2 this week, though he’ll always disappoint if he doesn’t score. It’s part of the territory with owning him. White saw another eight targets against the Jets last week and brings his total to 36 targets over the last four games. He still has just one touchdown but that’s bound to change. He actually did score a touchdown last week that was called back due to a ridiculous block in the back penalty. Keep plugging White in as a low-end RB2, as he offers a rock-solid floor and you’re not going to want to miss his ceiling when that game happens. The Browns have allowed 1.84 PPR points per target to running backs, which is the sixth highest mark in the league.

WRs
Odell Beckham: What a matchup to return to, eh? It’s clear that the Mayfield-Beckham connection hasn’t been as strong as we thought, as he’s finished better than the WR36 just twice this season. You know the Patriots are going to gameplan to shut him down, and that all starts with Stephon Gilmore, who’s been one of the best cornerbacks in football. While shadowing opposing No. 1 receivers, here are their performances through six weeks: JuJu Smith-Schuster 6/78/0 (WR36), DeVante Parker 0/0/0 (on seven targets), Robby Anderson 3/11/0 (WR83), John Brown 5/59/0 (WR29), Terry McLaurin 3/51/0 (WR45), Darius Slayton 3/32/0 (WR56), and Anderson again 1/10/0 (WR90). While none of those receivers are on Beckham’s level, none of them have finished better than the WR29. Beckham can beat Gilmore if they’re one-on-one, but Mayfield getting him the ball is the next concern. The Patriots have done a good job limiting their opponent’s top receiver over the years, so there’s little reason to doubt them now. Beckham should be played as a WR2 who’s still one of the best in the game, but temper expectations.

Jarvis Landry: Did you know that Landry has totaled more than four catches just once this season? With how much we dive into snaps, targets, and matchups, you’d think that would come up, right? He’s averaging a career-high 17.6 yards per reception, so it’s possible that Freddie Kitchens just fails to understand the type of player Landry is, designing plays that are run down the field. Did the bye week help? One can only hope. Landry will have the best matchup against the Patriots in the slot, as Jonathan Jones is the weakest link of the trio. While in slot coverage, he’s allowed 17-of-27 passing for 189 yards and a touchdown. While those aren’t elite numbers, they’re much better than attacking Jason McCourty and Stephon Gilmore. While Landry does play for a different team now, the Patriots defense under Bill Belichick has never emphasized stopping Landry. He’s played them seven times since 2014, and has totaled at least six catches in every game, with at least 70 yards in 6-of-7 games. Landry could be a sneaky WR3 play in PPR leagues, though it’d require Kitchens to use him differently than he’s been.

Julian Edelman: It appeared that Edelman grimaced in pain a few times during their win over the Jets, but was still out there in a blowout, so we must assume he’s okay. He hasn’t been very good this year, dropping at least one pass in 6-of-7 games, but as long as he keeps seeing the 9.7 targets per game he has, it doesn’t hurt fantasy owners. The Browns have struggled with receviers on a per-target basis, though being without their top two cornerbacks for three games certainly didn’t help. They have safety Eric Murray covering the slot most of the time, though we could see T.J. Carrie moved there with both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams healthy. We’ve seen just four receivers total more than six targets against the Browns, so we don’t have a big sample size to judge how they handle volume. Edelman should always be in your lineup as a WR2 with his volume, but it’s not a week you need to attack him in DFS with so many variables.

Mohamed Sanu: It’s tough to say how the Patriots plan to use Sanu right now. We have no clue how quickly Sanu will pick up the offense, but we did see the Patriots involve Antonio Brown right away. Sanu is nowhere near the player Brown was, but he’s extremely versatile, meaning they can use him in/out of the slot as they do with Edelman. If you’re able, it’s best to give Sanu a week to ensure he’s playing a full-time role right out of the gate. There have been just seven top-36 wide receivers against the Browns this year, so it’s not as if it’s a smash spot that you don’t want to miss out on. If he were on my roster, I’d be treating him as a WR4/5-type option this week.

Phillip Dorsett: Now that Josh Gordon is out of the picture, Dorsett is locked into the starting lineup. He’ll be the mixed in with both Edelman and Sanu in the slot, as they’re all moveable chess pieces. The Browns aren’t the best matchup for receivers who don’t see tons of targets, simply because they haven’t faced much volume against the position. Teams of receivers have averaged 18.3 targets per game against them. Because of that, just four receivers have seen more than six targets. Dorsett should be considered nothing more than a mediocre WR4 this week, as the Browns do have Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back healthy. There’s always the chance he catches a long touchdown and you curse yourself for not playing him, but you can’t forget the weeks you have played him and never received that big play. He’s averaging just 4.5 targets per game, so the odds aren’t in his favor.

TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: He’s the clear-cut leader among the tight ends in Cleveland right now, totaling 40 routes over the last two games, while Demetrius Harris has run just 16 of them. Seals-Jones was an inconsistent player back in Arizona and he has been with the Browns, too. He’s caught less than 50 percent of targets over his career, so volume is somewhat necessary. The Patriots have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position, which is partly to do with the fact that they’ve seen the fewest targets (24) against them. That’s an average of just over three targets per game. The competition has left a lot to be desired, as they’ve played Ryan Griffin twice, Mike Gesicki, Jeremy Sprinkle, Rhett Ellison, Vance McDonald, and Dawson Knox. I suppose we’d put Seals-Jones in the territory with those guys. The Patriots have allowed exactly one passing touchdown through seven games, so it wouldn’t be wise to bet on production out of Seals-Jones this week.

Ben Watson: Now that he’s back with the team, you have to at least consider him in fantasy. He saw five targets in his debut with the team in a tough matchup against the Jets. Now onto the Browns, who have allowed 2.03 PPR points per target to the tight end position, which ranks as the fourth highest mark in the league. They haven’t faced much volume this year (6.0 targets/game), but all three tight ends who saw more than three targets turned in top-eight fantasy performances. It’s important to note that they were George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Delanie Walker, but still. It’s dire at tight end right now, so seeing a player getting five targets from Brady in a plus-matchup kind of makes sense. He can be considered as a mediocre streamer this week.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 47.5
Line: GB by 4.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: After breaking fantasy football leagues in Week 7, will Rodgers carry that momentum into a matchup with the Chiefs? Ever since they allowed Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles to combine for 350 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, the Chiefs defense has been one of the better units in football. Since that game, they’ve allowed just 135-of-220 passing (61.4 percent) for 1,400 yards (6.36 yards per attempt) with five touchdowns and five interceptions. This is not to say they’re a lights out defense that you can’t play quarterbacks against, because we did see the Minshew/Foles combo do well, as well as Matthew Stafford (291/3). Despite Deshaun Watson‘s mediocre 280-yard, one-touchdown, two-touchdown performance against them, he should’ve had a much larger game when you factor in the four touchdown passes that were dropped. The fantasy numbers against the Chiefs have been propped up a bit by the four rushing touchdowns by quarterbacks, and that’s allowed 4-of-7 quarterbacks to finish as top-15 options against them, though Rodgers isn’t running the ball very much these days. I posted this last week, so don’t forget about these being Rodgers’ fantasy finishes this year prior to his massive day against the Raiders: QB24-QB19-QB24-QB2-QB22-QB12. He’s still on the QB1 radar this week, but he’s not in a smash spot like some may believe. *Update* The Chiefs defense may be without defensive end Frank Clark, defensive tackle Chris Jones, linebacker Darron Lee, and cornerback Kendall Fuller. This is obviously good news for Rodgers. 

Matt Moore: If you’ve just started playing fantasy football, or watching football in general, you may be asking yourself, “Who the heck is Matt Moore?” For those who’ve been around for a while, he’s been a very competent backup quarterback, though his last start came in Week 12 of 2017. Over the course of his career, he’s completed 59.1 percent of his passes while throwing 46 touchdowns with 36 interceptions. Now playing for Andy Reid, his numbers should inflate a bit. The Packers started out the year as a defense you absolutely feared, holding each of the first three quarterbacks to 10.9 fantasy points or less. Since that time, they’ve allowed Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Derek Carr at least 17.7 fantasy points. This is not to say you should be running out to stream Moore in 1QB leagues, but if you play in a 2QB or Superflex format, Moore should be able to play well enough to offer low-end QB2 value.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: It was good to see Jones walk back into the lead role after the Week 6 debacle that had him on the bench for much of the game. His touchdown reception last week was a thing of beauty and it absolutely gave Rodgers much more confidence when throwing to him, as he made a perfect last-second adjustment to catch the long pass. It’s still a timeshare, but one that’s likely closer to the 65/35 variety. The Chiefs have been a team you can play multiple fantasy running backs against. Over their last 23 games, the Chiefs have allowed 30 running backs to post 11.0 or more PPR points against them. With how well their pass defense has played, we’ve watched their opponents rack up the rushing attempts against them, as eight different running backs have reached the double-digits. It shouldn’t surprise you to know that five different running backs have totaled 99 or more rushing yards against them, including 125-plus to two of them. Outside of Mark Ingram‘s three-touchdown game back in Week 3, they’ve oddly allowed just two rushing scores, but those will come in bunches when you’re allowing a massive 4.99 yards per carry. You’re going to stick Jones in your lineup as a borderline RB1 with how often he’s finding the end zone, as his 10 touchdowns are more than both Christian McCaffrey (9) and Dalvin Cook (8). Williams may offer some value in this game as well knowing how bad the Chiefs have been against the running back position since the start of last year, though he’s nothing more than an RB4 who’s clearly on the wrong side of the timeshare.

LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams: Over the last two weeks, we’ve watched McCoy out-snap (53 to 38) and out-touch (24 to 13) Williams. It’s also fair to say that McCoy has looked a lot better while averaging 5.4 yards per carry while Williams has averaged just 1.3 yards per carry. McCoy is the starter in this offense with Williams mixed in. That’s important because Reid is likely to go back to his run-heavy ways with the offense. The Packers are the perfect team to try and impose their will on, too. On the year, they’ve allowed a league-high 4.99 yards per carry and it’s led to the fifth-most points to running backs. The only concern is them being gamescripted out of it, but the defense has played well at home, which is why we should be somewhat optimistic. We have seen running backs average 28.6 touches per game against the Packers, which is more than enough for their timeshare, too. Every running back who’s totaled at least 12 touches against them has finished as a top-26 running back, and McCoy should have no problem getting into that territory. He can be played as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 with upside if the 65/35 split continues. Williams is more of the wildcard where it shouldn’t surprise you if he finishes with five touches, though with the focus back on the run-game for this offense, there should be enough for him to be a somewhat useful RB4 with upside in a good matchup. It’s always possible that Reid has a change of heart and goes back to him as the starter, though it seems unlikely.

WRs
Davante Adams: He’s been ruled out before game day in each of the last three weeks, which is never a good sign. He’s also yet to practice since he suffered his turf toe injury back on September 26th. If he returns to practice and appears on track to play, I’ll come back and update this section. *Update* He hasn’t practiced at all this week and is likely out again.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He was able to play last week, though he was limited in his availability playing 20-of-58 snaps. The issue with trusting him is that even when healthy, he’s finished as a top-40 wide receiver just twice all year. He’s also seen just nine targets over the last three weeks combined. The Chiefs have done a much better job than anyone’s expected, as they’ve allowed just one 100-yard receiver, and that was back in Week 1 when nobody really knew how good D.J. Chark was. In fact, there has been just four receivers to finish with more than 11.0 fantasy points against them since that Week 1 game when Chark, Dede Westbrook, and Chris Conley all hit that mark. Each of the four receivers who’ve hit that number since have totaled at least seven targets. He’s going to see Charvarius Ward most of the time, and he’s been extremely good in coverage, allowing just a 58.3 percent completion-rate, though the receptions he has allowed have gone for 13.6 yards. Valdes-Scantling is just a risky WR4 who obviously benefits if Adams remains out, but it hasn’t led to more targets for him.

Jake Kumerow/Allen Lazard: With Valdes-Scantling playing just 20 snaps and Adams out, we saw these two play meaningful snaps last week. Lazard actually played the most snaps (49) among wide receivers, so he’d be the main beneficiary if Adams is held out again. Lazard has totaled nine targets over the last two weeks and has turned them into 7/107/1 while Rodgers has gushed about him. As mentioned in the Valdes-Scantling notes, there has been just four receivers to finish with more than 11.0 fantasy points against the Chiefs since Week 1, and each receiver who has been able to get there finished with at least seven targets. The duo of Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland has played much better than expected this year, allowing just 1.71 PPR points per target to wide receivers, which ranks 17th in the NFL. Watch the practice reports because if Valdes-Scantling is limited throughout the week (he practiced in full on Wednesday but was then limited on Thursday) and Adams doesn’t play (he’s out), Lazard has WR4/5 appeal.

Geronimo Allison: While Valdes-Scantling has seen just nine targets over the last three games combined, Allison has been Rodgers’ favorite target with Adams out of the lineup. He’s totaled 18 targets over the last three weeks and though it hasn’t amounted to much production, you follow the volume with Rodgers. The Chiefs are likely going to be without their starting slot cornerback Kendall Fuller, who suffered a fractured thumb a few weeks back. If he does play, it’d be with some sort of club on his hand. Richard Fenton was the cornerback they had covering the slot in his absence last week, a sixth-round rookie. It was his first real game action last week where he allowed 4-of-6 passing for 35 yards in his coverage. Knowing Allison is the one Rodgers has been targeting the most, combined with the fact that he has the best matchup among the Packers receivers, he should be considered a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 this week.

Tyreek Hill: There have been 31 games in Hill’s career where he’s played without Patrick Mahomes under center. In those games, he’s averaged 6.1 targets, 4.4 receptions, 57.5 yards, and 0.42 touchdowns per game. With some rushing here and there, it’s amounted to 14.28 PPR points per game. For context, that would have been the WR23 in fantasy leagues last year. He’s far from dead without Mahomes. This Packers secondary has allowed four receivers hit the century-mark against them, including Allen Robinson, who didn’t have a good quarterback throwing him the ball. Matt Moore has been competent as a backup throughout his career, and even back when he was the starter for the Dolphins in 2011, Brandon Marshall finished as the WR11 that year. The Packers haven’t been using Jaire Alexander in a shadow role as of late, which wouldn’t do much good against Hill anyway, as he moves into the slot half the time. It just so happens that the Packers have allowed a league-high nine passing plays that have gone for 40-plus yards. You should keep Hill in lineups as a WR2, at worst.

Sammy Watkins: We don’t know if Watkins will be available for this game, as Reid dubbed him day-to-day early this week. For now, we’ll approach this week as if he’ll be held out, but if he trends in the right direction, I’ll come back and update the notes here. It should be noted that even if he plays, he comes with plenty of risk with not only re-injuring his hamstring but playing with Moore after not practicing with him. *Update* Watkins has been a full participant in practice, which suggests he’ll give it a go this week. The Chiefs are likely to employ a run-heavy gameplan, though the players they’re missing on defense could lead to a lot of points for the Packers offense. Moore should be competent enough to move the ball through the air, though Watkins is the clear-cut No. 3 option. The Packers secondary has looked vulnerable as of late, so it’s possible Watkins overachieves, but it’s best to temper expectations to the WR4 territory.

Mecole Hardman: He may not have a full-time role like Demarcus Robinson, but he’s been the one who offers playmaking ability. Did you know he’s been a top-40 receiver in five of the last six games? He’s done that while seeing just 3-6 targets per game. The Packers have allowed more 40-plus yard plays than any other team in the NFL, which obviously piques interest. The downgrade from Mahomes to Moore is obviously real, but Hardman does have the lowest depth of target among wide receivers, which should make him a safer option for Moore. He’s not a recommended WR3 play or anything, but if you’re playing the showdown slate and are looking for a homerun threat, he offers that, as the Chiefs are likely to design a few trick plays with him this week as well.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: With Adams out of the lineup, we would’ve liked to see Graham average more than the four targets per game that he has, but beggars can’t be choosers, right? We’ve aimed to play tight ends against the Chiefs in recent memory, though part of the allure was that they’d be involved in potential shootouts. With Matt Moore under center instead of Patrick Mahomes, that’s likely to be a bit different. Tight ends have averaged a massive 10.0 targets per game against the Chiefs, which has resulted in plenty of fantasy scoring, but on a per target basis, they’ve allowed just 1.38 PPR points per target, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Despite seeing those 70 targets against tight ends, they’ve allowed just one touchdown to them. Graham is still on the TE2 radar due to the injuries surrounding the Packers wide receivers, but he’s not as great of an option as we’d initially hoped.

Travis Kelce: Since the start of the 2016, Kelce has played in 31 games without Mahomes. In those games, he’s averaged 7.7 targets, 5.4 receptions, 69.8 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns. That amounts to 14.7 PPR points per game, which would rank as the No. 3 tight end this year, behind only Austin Hooper and Darren Waller (minimum four games played). He’s going to be fine. The Packers are coming off a game in which they allowed the Raiders tight ends to go bananas, as Darren Waller and Foster Moreau combined for 9/150/3. There are just six teams who’ve allowed more than three touchdowns to tight ends all year. It surely didn’t help that they were without Darnell Savage, one of their starting safeties, but he’ll be questionable again this week. You’re starting Kelce, and if there’s anyone who loses the least amount of value with Mahomes out, it’s Kelce.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 43.0
Line: PIT by 14.5

QBs
Ryan Fitzpatrick: After playing well against the Bills last week, the Dolphins are going with Fitzpatrick against the Steelers. After struggling the first two weeks, the Steelers went out and traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick. Since that time, they’ve been a defense that you don’t attack in fantasy. During the last four games, they’ve allowed just 89-of-141 passing (63.1 percent) for 929 yards (6.59 yards per attempt), four touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged just 11.25 fantasy points while none of them have finished better than the QB16 (Philip Rivers). We all know the Dolphins pull their starter 90 percent of the time, so you’re not even debating Fitzpatrick.

Mason Rudolph: How much do you believe in matchups mattering? Rudolph has finished better than the QB24 just once in his four appearances, but the Dolphins are next up on the schedule. Every quarterback who’s started against them has finished as a top-15 quarterback despite none throwing the ball more than 32 times. They’re sacking the opposing quarterback just 4.0 percent of the time, have allowed a 69.0 percent completion-rate, 9.37 yards per attempt, and a 9.52 percent touchdown-rate. Every one of these things are practically all-time bad numbers. They’ve also intercepted just one pass all season. If there were ever a week to start Rudolph, this is it. The Steelers are likely to go run-heavy, as all teams do against the Dolphins, but Rudolph should be able to finish inside the top-20 quarterbacks this week, making him a rock-solid QB2 in 2QB leagues.

RBs
Kenyan Drake and Mark Walton: At the time of writing this, Drake is still on the team. Will it be that way come game-time? Your guess is as good as mine. We’ve seen the backfield shifting towards Walton, who has now received 12 and 15 touches over the last two games. This backfield as a whole has totaled just 105.5 PPR points, which is less than each of the top-12 running backs in fantasy. Think about that… if you had an option to start ever Dolphins running back in one spot of your lineup, they still wouldn’t be an RB1. And it’s not like the Steelers present a plus-matchup, as we’ve yet to see them allow a running back finish better than the RB17 against them, and that was way back in Week 1. Seriously, no running back has finished with more than 13.8 PPR points against them, no running back has totaled 80 yards on the ground, and they’ve allowed just four total touchdowns to running backs through six games. If Drake gets traded, Walton moves into low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory but has a low ceiling, especially considering they’re giving Kalen Ballage the goal-line carries. If Drake is still on the team, it’s likely that none of them are playable.

James Conner and Benny Snell: Some will wonder if Conner is going to play in this game, but I’d fully expect him to following their bye week. He said he could’ve returned in Week 6 had they not been up by multiple scores. There’s going to be plenty of work to go around against the Dolphins, who’ve faced a massive 33.3 touches per game against the running back position. Those touches have been highly effective, too. The 4.77 yards per carry they’ve allowed is bottom-five, and the 9.54 yards per target to running backs is nearly a full yard-and-a-half more than any other team in the NFL. The nine touchdowns through six games is the second-most in the NFL, behind only the Bengals and Lions. The question in this game comes down to how evenly split the workload will be. Conner hasn’t received more than 16 carries dating all the way back to Week 9 of last year, which should mean that Snell has a big role in this game as well. Now, what I will say is that Conner did total 16 carries before exiting the game against the Chargers, so he probably would’ve reached the 20-carry mark in that game, but we don’t know for sure. If the Steelers jump out to a lead, like everyone expects, why risk injury to their starter when he’s continually dealt with injuries this year? Conner should be in lineups as an RB1 this week, as you play running backs against the Dolphins any chance you get. Knowing what we do about the Dolphins run defense and how the Steelers have involved multiple running backs, it seems all but certain Snell would get 10-plus touches in this game. He’s not involved in the passing game, which does limit his floor, but he is most definitely in the high-end RB4 conversation against a team that’s allowed 10 running backs to be top-35 options. *Update* Conner isn’t even on the injury report, and Jaylen Samuels has been a full participant in practice, which adds more volatility to projecting this backfield. If Samuels returns, it would crush the value of Snell this week.

WRs
DeVante Parker: The Dolphins going with Fitzpatrick is a great thing for Parker, as Fitzpatrick is trusted much more to let loose. In the three games with Fitzpatrick, where he’s played the majority of the game, Parker has seen 7-7-10 targets, which is much better than the 6-4-4 in Rosen games. The Steelers haven’t been very giving to fantasy receivers as of late, as they’ve allowed just one top-30 receiver in their last four games. That was Mike Williams in Week 6 when he saw 10 targets and turned them into 5/72/0, netting a WR25 finish. Parker will see a mix of Joe Haden and Steven Nelson in coverage, as the duo has played sides this year, and not shadowed. Parker has played 39 percent of his snaps at RWR (Haden), 31 percent at LWR (Nelson), and 30 percent in the slot (Mike Hilton). Knowing how high his target numbers have been with Fitzpatrick, he’s in the WR4 conversation, but it’s been a tough matchup for receivers since they acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick for the backend of their defense.

Preston Williams: Opposite of Parker, Williams has seen a bit more volume in the Rosen games, though he’s still seen enough with Fitzpatrick to be considered. He’s seen 5-6-8 targets in the Fitzpatrick games, and this game should be a pass-heavy gamescript for them, as the Steelers are likely to jump out to a lead and they also don’t allow much on the ground. Williams plays most of his snaps at LWR, which is where he’ll see Steven Nelson in coverage. Nelson has been a pleasant addition for the Steelers this year, allowing just a 50 percent catch-rate in his coverage and just one touchdown on 20 targets. When you pair that with Williams’ pedestrian 52.3 percent catch-rate, it doesn’t lead to much confidence in the rookie. Parker is the recommended play of the two, especially when we consider the gravitation Fitzpatrick has had to him.

Allen Hurns/Albert Wilson: The two of them are sharing the slot snaps right now, as Wilson has struggled to do much of anything in his return, while Hurns was able to snag three balls for 53 yards last week. I’d say Hurns is the preferred option in showdown lineups who’ll likely be lesser owned of the two, but knowing they’re rotating, it’s a mess for redraft formats.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: It’s been a weird year for Smith-Schuster owners, as he’s now dealt with three different quarterbacks and has now totaled 15 or less yards in two of the last three games. The good news is that he’s finished with 75-plus yards in the other four games he’s played this year, though he’s done that on minimal targets. He’s been capped at eight targets this year, which makes little-to-no sense. Unfortunately, there won’t be tons of targets to go around this week, as opponents average just 16.3 targets against them, which is the second lowest mark in the league. The value on those targets couldn’t be higher, though. They’ve allowed a massive 2.27 PPR points per target to wide receivers as a whole and let’s not pretend Smith-Schuster is average. They have now allowed a touchdown every 8.9 targets to wide receivers, while no other team comes within 19 percent of that. Play Smith-Schuster as a WR2 and let’s hold hands to hope that he gets the targets he deserves.

Diontae Johnson: Since his promotion into the starting lineup, Johnson has seen 22 targets that have turned into 16 receptions, 170 yards, and two touchdowns. It’s nearly identical to Smith-Schuster’s 22 targets, 14 receptions, 178 yards, and two touchdowns. Do we anticipate things staying that way? Not really, as part of it likely comes down to Rudolph throwing to Johnson with the backups this offseason, while Smith-Schuster worked with Ben Roethlisberger. The Dolphins have been very bad against wide receivers but have also faced very limited volume. Teams have targeted wide receivers just 16.3 times per game, and that’s the reason they’ve allowed just seven performances of 11.7-plus PPR points. Why is that number significant? It’s the average amount of points it took to finish as a top-36 wide receiver last year. There are just nine teams who’ve allowed fewer top-36-type performances to wide receivers. Because of the expectation that Smith-Schuster is going to do well here, it limits the appeal to Johnson who fits into the WR4 range.

TEs
Mike Gesicki: Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Gesicki post the two best fantasy games of his career. They may have amounted to just 8.1 PPR points, but still, it’s a step in the right direction. The Steelers have been a defense you can attack with tight ends based on the fact that they’ve allowed the fourth-most points to tight ends, but when you look and see they’ve played against George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Will Dissly, and Mark Andrews, that should kind of be expected, right? In terms of fantasy points per game, those are four of the top eight tight ends in fantasy football. Henry was the only one who totaled more than 57 yards. We have still yet to see Gesicki in an NFL end zone, so you should stay away, though he’s trending in the right direction.

Vance McDonald: He’s now seen four targets or less in 4-of-5 games, including just six targets over his last three games. I don’t care who’s throwing to him or how good you think he is, that’s not going to produce consistent results. The matchup against the Dolphins will at least make you consider him, though. The only tight end they’ve played who’s even close to fantasy relevance is Mark Andrews back in Week 1 when he caught all eight of his targets for 108 yards and a touchdown. Despite the lack of competition, they’ve allowed 10.25 yards per target to tight ends, which is the most in the NFL, including a 77.8 percent completion-rate. Knowing the check-down nature of Rudolph’s game, combined with the fact that they’ll be without Jaylen Samuels, and McDonald is a low-end TE1.

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 40.5
Line: MIN by 16.5

QBs
Case Keenum: Since the firing of Jay Gruden, we’ve watched Keenum drop back to pass just 37 times over the last two weeks. That’s not going to get it done when you have a non-mobile quarterback like Keenum. Granted, the game last week was played in mud, but Bill Callahan talked about how he wanted to go back to a run-heavy approach. Now going into Minnesota for a matchup with his old team, Keenum is not on the streaming radar. Not only is his team projected for just 12 points, but the Vikings have allowed just 15.3 points per game at home this year. We have watched them allow three top-15 quarterbacks this year, but those quarterbacks were Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Matthew Stafford. The only quarterback who’s been able to average more than 7.65 yards per attempt was Stafford, so knowing the Redskins aren’t going to pass the ball a whole lot, it wouldn’t make sense to trust Keenum, even in a tournament.

Kirk Cousins: It’s the good ol’ revenge game narrative. We have Cousins who is coming off three games in which he’s finished as the QB9, QB6, and the QB2. He’s done that while failing to throw the ball more than 34 times in any of the three games. His sky-high efficiency must come back down to earth at some point but is it Week 8 against the Redskins defense that’s allowed a top-15 quarterback in 4-of-7 games this year? The quarterbacks who failed to hit that mark were Daniel Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jimmy Garoppolo (playing in mud), so the competition has dictated the fantasy finish to this point. The other four quarterbacks who played against them threw for three touchdowns apiece. This game screams limited pass attempts from the Vikings offense, as they’re one of the three teams who’ve run the ball on more than 50 percent of their plays this year. The good news is that the Redskins opponents have averaged 67.5 plays per game, which is the fifth-highest number in the league. Knowing we should see Cousins drop back about 32-34 times based on that information, he should come with a safe floor against a team that’s allowed at least 7.2 yards per attempt to every quarterback not named Josh Rosen. He’s not likely to win you a tournament on an entire slate of games, but he should be started as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 with a solid floor.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Wendell Smallwood: Over the two games under Bill Callahan, Peterson has now totaled a massive 43 carries. He has just two targets, which really limits his appeal, especially when the gamescript is expected to go south in a hurry this week. The Redskins are projected for just 12 points in this road game, which is the exact opposite of good correlation with a two-down running back. There have been just three running backs who’ve been able to post double-digit PPR games against the Vikings, and two of them scored receiving touchdowns, while the third one was Aaron Jones. Outside of Jones, there hasn’t been a running back who’s totaled more than 53 yards on the ground against the Vikings this year. They’ve allowed just 3.85 yards per carry and just one touchdown on 144 carries this season. Many will want to follow the volume under Callahan and say Peterson is startable because of it, but this is your friendly reminder that the Redskins won their game against the Dolphins and lost just 9-0 against the 49ers, which is what allowed them to run the ball that much. Peterson is nothing more than a high-end RB4 with a limited ceiling against his former team. We don’t know exactly what Smallwood’s role will be due to the lack of negative gamescript last week, but we’ll find out this week. If you’re in a tough spot at running back, Smallwood should see four-plus targets in this game. The Vikings have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs this year, which is a lot through just seven games. He could offer a Chris Thompson-esque performance this week and be a decent RB4 option in PPR formats, though there is risk without knowing just how much they’ll let him play under Callahan.

Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: Welcome back to the elite performance territory, Mr. Cook. He took care of business last week against the Lions, like we expected. His touch totals this year are pretty fantastic, as he’s gone 23-23-20-20-27-18-26 over the first seven games. Even if the Vikings give Mattison work, Cook’s going to get his. The Redskins haven’t allowed a ridiculous number of yards on a per carry basis, but the reason they’ve allowed plenty of fantasy points is due to the volume they’ve seen. Through seven games, they’ve faced an average of 32.1 touches per game by running backs. Because of that high volume, they’ve allowed Wayne Gallman, Sony Michel, and Ezekiel Elliott have all finished as top-10 options against the Redskins. You have to understand that there’s just one other team who’s run the ball on a higher percentage of plays than the Vikings, and that was the 49ers last week, whose running backs combined for 36 touches last week. As a massive home favorite, we should see Cook locked into 20 touches in this game, making him an elite RB1 play on Thursday night. There should also be 8-15 touches available for Mattison depending on how quickly the game gets out of hand, so he can be used as an emergency RB4/flex in a pinch.

WRs
Terry McLaurin: It was a very disappointing game for McLaurin last week, but if you watched the game, you know why he didn’t perform. The field was a giant slip-and-slide with mud, and that’s going to affect a route-runner like him. Now heading out to Minnesota, we at least know he’ll be playing in a dome this week. The Vikings have allowed 14 different wide receivers to finish as top-50 options against them through seven weeks. While top-50 isn’t necessarily startable, it highlights the fantasy floor they’ve allowed to opposing receivers. That’s an average of two per game. Nine of those wide receivers have finished as top-32 options, which is absolutely inside the startable range. The average top-36 PPR performance was 11.7 points in 2018. The Vikings have allowed 11 receivers to hit that number, the most in the league. Many will point to Kenny Golladay as a knock against McLaurin this week, but I’d point to his two targets as the reason, not the matchup, as Marvin Jones seemed to do just fine. Knowing McLaurin has seen a league-leading 50 percent of his team’s air yards (which is ridiculous, as no other wide receiver is over 42 percent), you can lock him in for volume in this game. In non-mudslide games, McLaurin has seen at least seven targets in every game. Keep him in lineups as a WR2 this week.

Stefon Diggs: Knowing that Adam Thielen won’t play definitely helps us feel better about Diggs’ fantasy floor. Do we really believe he would’ve finished with eight targets had Thielen not exited last week’s game so early? The Redskins were without Josh Norman last week, and though some will be paying attention to whether or not he’s available this week, it shouldn’t matter all that much, as he’s been pretty terrible in coverage since the start of last year. With him out of the lineup, we saw a mixture of Quinton Dunbar, Fabian Moreau, and Jimmy Moreland for the Redskins; three cornerbacks who wouldn’t be starting on a good team. Ok, maybe that’s a bit harsh. Dunbar has played better this year, but the end result is the same. Even with the mess of a game last week, the Redskins secondary has allowed wide receivers 2.08 PPR points per target this year, which includes a 73.1 percent completion-rate to them. That’s important because there will be limited pass attempts out of Cousins this week, so Diggs will need to make the most of them. The Redskins have already allowed three wide receivers to post 25-plus PPR points against them this year despite no receiver topping 10 targets. Diggs should be in fantasy lineups as a WR1 with Thielen out of the mix.

Olabisi Johnson: With Adam Thielen‘s injury, Johnson was promoted into a much larger role in Week 7 where he played 52-of-73 snaps and tied Diggs for the team-lead with eight targets against the Lions. He caught just four of them, though they netted 40 yards and a touchdown. He’s quietly become a bigger part of the offense, as he’s now seen at least four targets in three of the last four games with Thielen. The issue with relying for too much against the Redskins is the same concern we have with most receivers against the Redskins… overall passing volume of the offense. Johnson’s average depth of target is just 8.8 yards down the field, which is premier check-down territory.  It’s doubtful that Cousins would have to check-down very often, but it’s also possible we see that number increase while Johnson is asked to play on the perimeter a bit more. He’s on the fantasy radar as a WR5 this week but is more of a contrarian play in DFS on showdown slates with the amount of ownership Diggs will have. We have watched 11 different receivers total 10.9 or more PPR points against the Redskins through seven games.

TEs
Vernon Davis: He’s been out the last three weeks while recovering from a concussion, but seems to be on track to play in this game against the Vikings. Unfortunately, you won’t want to attack the matchup with the Vikings, as they’ve been one of the better teams in the NFL at defending the position despite one of the toughest schedules. The slate of tight ends they’ve played has been ridiculous, as it’s been Darren Waller, Austin Hooper, Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, Trey Burton, and Jimmy Graham through seven weeks. That might be the worst schedule anyone could ask for, yet they’ve still not allowed a touchdown to the position. Crazy, right? When you see that the Vikings have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, you need to take it with a grain of salt, as they’ve allowed just 5.95 yards per target and no touchdowns. Knowing Davis has yet to see more than four targets since way back in Week 1, he’s not likely going to get enough volume to start confidently in this matchup. He’s nothing more than a mid-to-low-end TE2.

Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr: After failing to see more than four targets in the first six games, we saw Rudolph jump up the ranks in Week 7 as he racked up six targets against the Lions, turning them into 5/58/1. Meanwhile, Smith also saw six targets in Week 7, turning them into 5/60/0. Is this the aftermath of the Thielen injury? Over the first six weeks, these two combined for just 31 targets, or 5.1 per game. To know they combined for 12 targets in Week 7, it seems that something significant happened. The Redskins have a new safety duo they’re working with this year, but it hasn’t amounted to much success for their opponents who’ve averaged just 6.86 yards per target and 1.56 PPR points per target. It’s worth noting that they’ve played against George Kittle, Zach Ertz, and Evan Engram this year, though none of them finished as top-12 options against the Redskins. In fact, no tight end has totaled more than 54 yards against them, so if you’re thinking about starting Rudolph or Smith, you’re likely looking for a touchdown for any fantasy success, which can be said about a lot of tight ends.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.