New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 41.0
Line: JAX by 4.5

QBs
Sam Darnold: Coming off what was the 16th worst fantasy game of all-time with -6.66 fantasy points, not many are going to trust Darnold this week. It’s fair, as he looked horrendous against the Patriots. Sure, most quarterbacks have, but he looked absolutely lost. The Jaguars are a different team without Jalen Ramsey, though they’re still not a pushover unit. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, they haven’t allowed a quarterback to average more than 7.97 yards per attempt, and they’ve held 5-of-6 quarterbacks to one or zero passing touchdowns. The rushing touchdowns to Andy Dalton and Deshaun Watson padded their stats a bit, but it hasn’t been a great matchup for quarterbacks. Darnold and the Jets are projected for just 18.3 points, so it’s not as if you’re playing him in what’s projected to be a high-scoring game, either. The Jaguars do average a 7.7 percent sack-rate (7th in NFL), so they could put pressure on Darnold similar to the way the Patriots did. He should remain on fantasy benches until he shows he’s capable of producing in a non-cake-matchup.

Gardner Minshew: After starting the year so strong, Minshew has looked mediocre the last two weeks, completing just 29-of-61 passes (47.5 percent) for 418 yards (6.85 yards per attempt) with one touchdown and one interception. He added 48 yards on the ground last week to prop up his fantasy totals and enabled him to finish as a top-16 quarterback for the sixth time in seven games. With Nick Foles nearing a return to practice, does Minshew hold onto this job? The Jets have oddly not been a great matchup for opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve still yet to allow a top-10 performance to one, which includes two games against Tom Brady. In fact, there’s been just one game where they allowed multiple passing touchdowns, and that was to Brady back in Week 3. They’ve allowed just 6.99 yards per attempt and a 2.60 percent touchdown-rate under Gregg Williams, so the defense is not the problem. They have allowed two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, so we could see Minshew look to gain some points on the ground, but overall, this is not a matchup to attack with a struggling passer. He’s just a mid-to-low-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Le’Veon Bell: We thought the return of Darnold would be good for Bell, right? He’s seen just two targets in the last two games, which is certainly not going to cut it. He hasn’t topped 70 yards on the ground all year, so the passing game is where we rely on a lot of production. The Jaguars present an opportunity for them to get the ground game going, as they’ve allowed a robust 4.87 yards per carry on the season, which ranks behind only the Chiefs, Packers, Browns, and Bengals defenses. The loss of Ramsey doesn’t allow them to load the box the way they used to and because of that, running backs are having more success. One of the craziest stats I’ve seen was that the Jaguars had allowed 4.12 yards per carry with Ramsey on the field, and 6.44 yards per carry with him off the field through six games. It’s a small sample size, but it’s something. We did see them shut down the Bengals run-game last week, though they were down three starting offensive linemen. It should be noted that Bell is missing some linemen up front as well, and it’s led to him averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. This is not the brutal matchup it used to be, but the lack of involvement in the passing game removes Bell from the cash game conversation. He should be started as a low-end RB1 in season-long leagues.

Leonard Fournette: When you add in the volume Fournette has been getting on a weekly basis, his floor is about as high as they come. His opportunity value is second to only Christian McCaffrey and it’s only gotten better as the season’s gone on. He’s still scored just one touchdown yet remains the No. 7 running back in fantasy. Every running back above him has scored at least six touchdowns. The Jets have allowed more than 90 rushing yards to just one team of running backs this year, so it hasn’t been a great matchup in that regard, but they have allowed a massive eight rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL. They have allowed a touchdown every 17.9 carries, which is the second most often in the league. That’s really it, though, as the 3.29 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league, while the 1.46 PPR points per target to running backs ranks as the 14th-lowest. The bottom line here is volume, though. There have been just four running backs who’ve seen at least 17 touches against the Jets, and every single one of them was able to score at least 18.9 PPR points and finish as a top-eight running back. Start Fournette as a solid RB1 who has gets enough volume to succeed in a tough matchup.

WRs
Robby Anderson: Going back to the start of last year, Anderson has just three games with more than four receptions in a game. The good news is that Darnold has targeted him eight times in each of the last two games. With that volume, production will follow. The matchup against the Jaguars doesn’t look nearly as bad without Jalen Ramsey on the team, though A.J. Bouye is solid in his own right. The Jaguars have allowed seven top-20 performances to wide receivers this year, but all of them saw at least eight targets and caught at least five passes. Six of the seven receivers were primarily playing on the perimeter, which is a good sign for Anderson who rarely goes into the slot. And looking at the duo of Bouye and Tre Herndon, they’ve allowed 15.5 yards per reception, which falls right into Anderson’s wheelhouse. Anderson should bounce back in this matchup, but he needs Darnold to play competently. Consider him a high-end WR4 who has a wide range of outcomes, though one of them is a top-20 finish. *Update* The Jets are apparently shopping Anderson at the trade deadline, so you need to pay attention to his availability. If he’s traded prior to the game, he wouldn’t be active with his new team.

Demaryius Thomas: He’s now seen nine targets in two of the last three games with the Jets, so he’s clearly someone who’s heavily involved in their gameplan. He’s provided stability than Anderson, totaling at least 42 yards in each of the last three games. The Jaguars aren’t going to shadow Anderson or Thomas, meaning he’ll see a mixture of A.J. Bouye and Tre Herndon in coverage. If there’s an area where Bouye has struggled in his career, it’s been over the top, something Thomas doesn’t offer anymore. Herndon is not a tough matchup, though. He’s part of the reason we saw Alex Erickson total 8/137/0 last week. While I was quick to write-off Thomas coming off an Achilles injury late in 2018, he’s providing decent last-minute replacement value and can be considered a middling WR5.

Jamison Crowder: We’ve seen him go from 17 targets in the first game with Darnold, to nine targets the next game, and then just five targets last week. There’s nothing about the matchups that would’ve dictated the decline, so it’s likely we’re just stuck with an unpredictable target share that’ll only get clouded more when Chris Herndon returns. Crowder is going to see a lot of D.J. Hayden in this matchup, a slot cornerback who’s been phenomenal for the Jaguars. He’s allowed just 16-of-25 passing for 131 scoreless yards in his coverage this year and just got done holding Tyler Boyd in check last week. All-in-all, the slot-heavy Boyd saw 14 targets, but was able to haul in just five passes for 55 yards. It’s possible we see Crowder jump back up in targets, though we’re suddenly looking at a crowded situation with Anderson, Thomas, Bell, and Herndon in the mix. Crowder should be considered a low-upside WR4/5-type option this week.

D.J. Chark: After finishing as a top-20 receiver in four of the first five weeks, we’ve seen Chark slip outside the top-30 receivers in each of the last two weeks. The one game was against Marshon Lattimore, so that’s excusable, but why he saw just four targets against the Bengals should leave you puzzled. We have no choice but to look forward and leave that behind us, though the Jets haven’t been the best of matchups for fantasy receivers. There have been just four receivers who finished as top-20 options against them, and all those receivers caught a touchdown. There have been 11 receivers who’ve finished with at least five receptions, so we should at least get a stable floor out of Chark. He’s going to see Trumaine Johnson the most, a cornerback who was benched earlier in the year, but re-entered the lineup in Week 5 and has allowed 9-of-14 passing for 111 yards and a touchdown since that time, which went to Phillip Dorsett on Monday night. Chark should be in lineups as a high-end WR3 who presents top-12 upside if the targets start coming his way again.

Dede Westbrook: He was dubbed a game-time decision last week but played and wound up being the go-to receiver for Minshew. He saw a team-high nine targets and turned them into 6/103/0 in what was his best performance of the year. Unfortunately, he heads into a tough matchup with the Jets, who’ve done a great job holding slot receivers in check. Julian Edelman did finish with 7/62/1 back in Week 3 but his touchdown came on the perimeter against Daryl Roberts, not Brian Poole. This is important because Westbrook almost never moves out of the slot. Poole is the slot cornerback that came over this offseason, and he’s been their best cornerback in coverage, allowing just 20-of-32 passing for 126 scoreless yards in slot coverage. We have watched Westbrook see eight-plus targets in four of the last five games, so he’s always going to be in consideration, but this matchup is tougher than the ones he’s had recently, making him a mediocre WR4 option.

TEs
Chris Herndon: He didn’t practice at all last week, so it’s difficult to see him ready for this game on a short week, so you should be prepared to be without him for another week. The Jaguars have defended the tight end position well, anyway. They’ve allowed just a 61.0 percent completion-rate to them with just two touchdowns on 41 targets. Going back to last year, they’ve allowed just five tight ends to top 37 yards against them, so it’s been somewhat of a touchdown-or-bust for most tight ends that don’t see six-plus targets. Even if Herndon were to return, you shouldn’t play him in his first game back in a tough matchup. *Update* He’s been limited in practice throughout the week and is no lock to play. 

Seth DeValve: The Jaguars used DeValve in the receiving role last week, as he ran 20 pass routes, while rookie Josh Oliver ran 12 routes.  We could see Oliver’s role as he’s still coming back from injury, so you’re not going to trust this tight end unit right now, especially considering they’re playing the Jets, a team who’s one of the better squads against tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Total: 48.0
Line: NO by 9.5

QBs
Kyler Murray: After posting at least 16.3 fantasy points in each of his first six NFL games, Murray had his worst fantasy outing against the Giants last week. While Edmonds going bananas didn’t help, neither did the fact that Murray averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt. He’s had two other games with sub-5.8 yards per attempt, but the volume typically covers that up. There should be more attempts this week. I’m old enough to remember when the Saints were a smash spot for opposing quarterbacks. Back in Weeks 1-3, they allowed three straight top-eight performances. Since that time, they haven’t allowed anyone to finish better than the QB12 against them. Over the last four weeks, none of Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, or Mitch Trubisky were able to average more than 7.5 yards per attempt. They’ve also allowed just four passing touchdowns in those four games, with two of them coming in garbage time to Trubisky last week. With this team healthy up front, no team has been able to run against them, either. That’s going to put this game on Murray’s shoulders, which is perfectly fine for fantasy purposes. There are three games in which Murray has thrown multiple touchdowns, and they came in the games he threw the ball 54-43-37 times. Though it sounds crazy, there have been four games where Murray’s failed to throw a single touchdown. The good news is that he’s running the ball a lot, as he’s racked up 31 rushing attempts over the last three weeks that have amounted to 153 yards and a touchdown. The Saints have allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. Despite the matchup getting tougher against the Saints, Murray should be considered a low-end QB1 with his mobility and volume.

Teddy Bridgewater: I know we’ve been hearing about Drew Brees potentially trying to come back this week, but why? They have their bye after this game and let’s not pretend they can’t handle the Cardinals without him. Bridgewater looked great against the Bears last week and he even took some shots down the field with his season-high 7.4 air yards per target. You were warned that the Cardinals defense might look like a different unit with Patrick Peterson on the field, and that’s precisely what we saw as they held Daniel Jones to just 22-of-35 passing for 223 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It helps when your defense racks up a season-high eight sacks and force two fumbles as well. The big takeaway here is that you can’t simply start any quarterback against them as we did in the past. Bridgewater is protected extremely well, so the pressure shouldn’t be that much of an issue for him. The real issue is that Peterson is likely going to be glued to Thomas, which is a tough matchup, and it limits Bridgewater’s go-to receiver. Since Bridgewater took over, 42 percent of the team’s air yards, and 31 percent of the targets have gone to Thomas. It’s not a matchup you need to attack anymore, making Bridgewater a low-end QB2.

RBs
David Johnson and Chase Edmonds: What in the world happened last week? Johnson was questionable all week and we were told that he wouldn’t have played if the game were on Friday, but he was active come Sunday morning. He also received the first carry but was then pulled for the remainder of the game. It’s clear there is something going on, as the Cardinals brought in both Jay Ajayi and Spencer Ware for workouts on Monday, too. You’ll want to check back here on Saturday when I update all the injury news. Against the Saints, it’s going to be a much tougher matchup no matter who’s in the backfield. Since getting defensive lineman David Onyemata back in Week 2, the Saints have allowed just 344 rushing yards on 103 carries over their last six games, which amounts to 3.34 yards per carry. That’s awfully similar to the defense that allowed just 3.22 yards per carry last year. No running back has been able to post top-10 numbers against them this year, and that’s despite playing against Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Todd Gurley in their mix of games. You’d actually have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the Saints allowed a running back with more than 83 yards on the ground. They have allowed 43-of-51 targets to running backs be completed, though they’ve only gone for 240 yards and no touchdowns. If Johnson’s active, it seems likely that this is more of a timeshare moving forward, which would make him just a middling RB2 in this tough matchup while Edmonds is nothing more than an emergency RB4. If he’s out, Edmonds clearly has a big role and would be worthy of an RB2 start, though he’s no sure thing. *Update* Johnson has not practiced all week and they’re calling him a game-time decision, but it appears he will likely be held out. 

Latavius Murray: You shouldn’t expect to have Alvin Kamara for this game, as the Saints bye is coming after this game, so it makes sense for them to rest him. That would mean another monster workload for Murray in a game his team is projected for over 28 points. We watched him tally 33 opportunities against the Bears last week while the remaining running backs got just four of them. The Saints are going to be more than willing to ride him with their bye week on tap. The Cardinals have faced two running backs who’ve totaled 20-plus carries and both finished with at least 18.5 PPR points. With how beatable the Cardinals have been in the secondary, we hadn’t seen many running backs accumulate yardage through the air, though with Peterson back, you have to wonder if we start seeing more check-downs to the running backs. We have seen running backs average 22.7 carries per game against the Cardinals while tallying a respectable 4.36 yards per carry, so the vitals are strong for Murray here. Any time you have a big home favorite who’s locked into 18-plus touches, you play him as a high-end RB2, at minimum. Murray is safe enough for cash games as well. Obviously, all this changes if Kamara returns, which I’ll come and update on Saturday. *Update* Kamara was able to get a limited practice in on Thursday, so there’s a chance he plays, though it still makes sense for them to hold him back and let him rest through the bye week. 

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: After popping off for 217 yards over the first two games, Fitzgerald has averaged just 44.4 yards over the last give games and bottomed-out against the Giants who had allowed tons of fantasy points to slot receivers. It’s not good to see his performance declining, as he’s an aging wide receiver who’s now 36 years old, so it’s possibly just wear-and-tear. It’s also possible that getting Kirk back in the lineup will help free him up. He does have at least five receptions in all but one game, so we can’t fully write him off, anyway. It also helps that the Saints are not only missing their starting slot cornerback who’s serving a suspension, but they’re also missing their backup slot cornerback as Patrick Robinson pulled his hamstring last week. Of the top eight wide receiver performances against the Saints this year, five of them were to slot-heavy receivers. Because of that, Fitzgerald should remain in lineups as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Christian Kirk: He was close to playing last week, so we’ll go ahead and assume he’s back for this matchup. The Cardinals are going to present a lot of problems for the Saints with the four wide receiver sets, as it tests the depth of your cornerback unit, which is something they don’t have right now, as P.J. Williams is out on suspension, Patrick Robinson injured his hamstring last week, and Eli Apple suffered a hyperextended knee last week. That leaves them with Marshon Lattimore, rookie Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (who I loved during the draft process), Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley. They’re working out running backs this week, so we’ll see them sign someone, but it’s a fluid situation. Even healthy, they’ve allowed four 100-yard receivers this year, with three of them being slot-heavy, like Kirk and Fitzgerald are. If Kirk gets in a full practice and is good to go, you should trust him as a WR3. *Update* He’s been limited in practice all week, so he’s once again no sure thing to play. This adds additional risk to him in what is a premier matchup. Even if active, you have to understand the risk/reward nature when playing him. 

Damiere Byrd: He’s back in a full-time role though he’s likely to see the most of Marshon Lattimore in coverage, as he’s a perimeter-only cornerback. Most of the damage done against the Saints has come in the slot because of that, though the loss of Eli Apple could affect things, too. Still, Byrd lines up on Lattimore’s side of the field (when he’s not shadowing) 91.0 percent of the time which means you don’t want to start him in this game.

Michael Thomas: Despite being without Drew Brees since the middle of Week 2, Thomas sits as the top fantasy wide receiver through seven weeks. He’s going to have a tough test in Week 8, however, as Patrick Peterson awaits. In case you’ve never heard me talk about it, you really shouldn’t underestimate how great Peterson is. When asked in an interview, Davante Adams said that Peterson was easily the best cornerback who’s ever covered him. Over the course of Peterson’s nine-year career, he’s never allowed a QB Rating of higher than 95.5 in his coverage, which is ridiculous considering he’s been tasked with shadowing the best receivers in the game. The question is whether the Cardinals allow him to travel into the slot with Thomas, as he moves there 30 percent of the time and gets targeted a ton when he lines up there. The Cardinals have really struggled to defend the slot, which is why the matchup is so important. You’re playing Thomas in redraft leagues no matter what, but the questionable shadow coverage takes Thomas out of cash-game consideration.

Ted Ginn: Knowing that Thomas is likely to have Patrick Peterson glued to his hip, Ginn may see additional targets this week. He’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, so he’s involved, though Bridgewater’s lack of attempts down the field has crushed his upside, as he’s not a receiver who’ll play the possession role. He’ll see a lot of Byron Murphy in this game, a rookie cornerback who’s struggled a bit, allowing a 71.4 percent catch-rate in his coverage with three touchdowns on 42 targets, though no pass has gone for more than 23 yards in his coverage. Ginn is going to have a lot more value once Brees comes back, but for now, he’s just a middling WR5.

TEs
Charles Clay: I’m only here so I don’t get fined. Don’t ever start a Cardinals tight end.

Jared Cook and Josh Hill: It’s a horrible time for Cook to be dealing with an injury, as the Cardinals are the next team on the schedule. They’ve allowed five different tight ends to finish as a top-two option against them through seven weeks. That’s extremely hard to do, even on purpose. They’ve allowed 21.3 percent more fantasy points to tight ends than the next closest team. Seriously, every number across the board is massive. They’ve allowed 2.55 PPR points per target (most in NFL), 10.13 yards per target (2nd-most in NFL), a 77.8 percent completion-rate (highest in NFL), and a touchdown every 7.9 targets (most often). If you get targeted against the Cardinals, you’re practically guaranteed to be fantasy relevant. Knowing they have their bye coming after this game, we could see them give him the week off, but if he’s out there, we have to assume he’s ready to roll. If he plays, put him in lineups as a TE1 who has top-three upside. If he sits, Hill becomes an intriguing streamer who’s now seen 13 targets over the last four games. *Update* Cook has not practiced all week and appears to be out for this game.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 41.0
Line: SF by 5.5

QBs
Kyle Allen: Sure, we heard that Allen will start this week, but this matchup shouldn’t be considered a prize by any means. The 49ers’ opponents have not only averaged just 53.0 plays per game (easily the lowest in the NFL), but they’ve not allowed efficiency on those plays. They’re pressuring the quarterback seemingly non-stop and have generated a sack on a league-high 10.8 percent of dropbacks. When I say low volume, I mean it. They’ve faced an average of just 27.3 pass attempts per game. When you see that combined with the fact that they’ve allowed just 5.70 yards per target and a 54.9 percent completion-rate, you should look the other way. No quarterback has averaged more than 7.4 yards per attempt, and just one quarterback has thrown for more than 194 yards. Allen himself hasn’t thrown more than 34 passes in a game and offers nothing on the ground. Carry on.

Jimmy Garoppolo: It’s true, you should really scrap last week’s game from your memory banks. But what about the rest of the games? Over his last nine games as the 49ers starting quarterback, he’s averaged 225.8 yards per game with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. During those nine games, just two of them netted more than 16 fantasy points. While it helps that the team added Emmanuel Sanders, that’s just a small piece of the puzzle. Garoppolo will be going against a Panthers defense that’s allowed just seven passing touchdowns through six games. They’re generating nearly as much pressure as the 49ers are with their defensive line, as their 10.2 percent sack-rate is third, behind only the 49ers and the Patriots. They’re allowing just a 61.3 percent completion-rate, as well as just 6.31 yards per attempt, and a 2.94 percent touchdown-rate; all of which are near the lowest marks in the league. Garoppolo shouldn’t be considered a good streamer for this week, as he’ll need a team that can force a shootout to do so.

RBs
Christian McCaffrey: It’s good to have him back in the slate of games, though the matchup doesn’t get much worse than the 49ers while they’re at home. They’ve allowed just 53.0 plays per game to their opponents, which is easily the lowest mark in the league, and that has meant decreased touches for all parties involved. Running backs have averaged just 21.8 touches per game against them. Meanwhile, McCaffrey has racked up 27 opportunities (carries and targets) in 5-of-6 games. Something has to give, right? Let’s take a look at the running backs the 49ers have played to this point: Peyton Barber, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Malcolm Brown, and Adrian Peterson. Outside of Chubb, do we really expect anything out of that group? Chubb also averaged 5.44 yards per carry but totaled just 16 carries and one target in that game, limiting his fantasy potential, and Baker Mayfield couldn’t convert a third down to save his life. You play McCaffrey no matter what, in every format, no matter how much he costs. The man has finished as the RB9 or better in 13 of his last 15 games played, including eight top-three performances.

Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida: It appears that Breida will be good to go after clearing the concussion protocol during last week’s game. With him out, Coleman racked up a season-high 22 touches in their win over the Redskins. The Panthers are not a matchup that’s been particularly bad, nor particularly good for running backs. The main issue for this timeshare is that running backs have averaged just 24.3 touches per game against them, something that’s not great for a 50/35/15 timeshare. The carries they have faced have gone for 4.55 yards per carry with a touchdown every 20.3 carries, which are both attractive numbers, but knowing the lack of touches to running backs against them, it’s tough to guarantee volume to confidently play these running backs. Coleman is obviously the one you can stick in lineups as he’s pretty much guaranteed 14-plus touches per game. Knowing that the 49ers have averaged 69.6 plays per game this year, and that the Panthers opponents have averaged 69.7 plays per game, my guess would be they’ll figure out a way to get everyone their normal touches, though there is slightly more risk than usual. Coleman should be played as a low-end RB2 while Breida is still worthy of RB3 consideration, as he’s totaled at least 13 touches in all full games he’s played.

WRs
D.J. Moore: After a slow start with Allen under center, we’ve watched Moore return to the high-end WR3 that most thought they were getting this year, as he’s totaled 13 receptions for 164 yards over the last two games, though he still hasn’t found the end zone since back in Week 3. The 49ers aren’t a team you’ll expect that draught to end against, as they’ve allowed just four touchdowns to wide receivers on the year. With how few of plays their opponents have run, they’ve only faced 100 wide receiver targets on the year, which is the second-lowest mark in football. It’s fitting, too, as they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers. There’s actually been just one receiver all year who’s totaled more than four receptions against them, and that was the slot-heavy Tyler Boyd. Moore plays 60 percent of his snaps at LWR, which means he has the better matchup between him and Samuel, as he’s going to see backup Emmanuel Moseley in coverage since Ahkello Witherspoon remains out. Moseley has done a fine job filling in, as he’s allowed just 6-of-10 passing for 45 yards in his coverage. Still, it’s better than being on Richard Sherman‘s side. It’s not a great matchup, which leaves Moore in mid-to-low-end WR3 territory but he’s the Panthers receiver with the best chance to succeed.

Curtis Samuel: He’s consistently been at six or seven targets with Allen under center and that’s been enough to flash at times, but his floor has been exposed with just three catches in 2-of-4 games. We know he’s the boom-or-bust receiver in the offense while Moore is the possession receiver, and with the way they line up, it makes sense for Moore to be the receiver who’s targeted more. Samuel is going to see Richard Sherman half the time, the veteran cornerback who’s played lights out this year. He’s allowed just a 49.2 QB Rating when targeted in coverage, as he’s not been forced to hang in coverage for more than a few seconds due to the 49ers insane pass-rush. Samuel can beat Sherman over the top, but it’s not something you want to rely on against a team that’s allowed a league-low 10 passing plays to go for 20-plus yards (every other team has allowed at least 13). Samuel is just a big-play hopeful WR4/5 option.

Emmanuel Sanders: Welcome to the 49ers wide receiver room that’s been essentially non-existent all year, Mr. Sanders. This team has just produced just two top-36 wide receiver performances all year. Go ahead and read that again. The only useful performances came in the same game against the Bengals when Deebo Samuel totaled 5/86/1 and Marquise Goodwin totaled 3/77/1. Samuel’s five catches in that game were the only time a 49ers receiver has topped four receptions. It’s kind of ridiculous, but here’s the thing… it’s worked, so there’s no reason to change now. Sanders will have had just a few days with the team when this game is played, so it’s tough to rely on much, especially when the team is averaging just 27.8 pass attempts per game. Even a massive 30 percent target share would net just eight targets on that volume. The Panthers are likely to have James Bradberry shadow him knowing there’s no other dangerous option on the perimeter. He’s been one of the best in football this year, holding receivers to just a 51.3 percent catch-rate and no touchdowns on 39 targets while intercepting three balls. Sanders should be considered an emergency WR4 this week.

Dante Pettis: What does the Sanders trade mean for Pettis? Well, it may not affect him much at all. The expectation should be that Sanders takes over for Deebo Samuel on the perimeter while Pettis remains in the slot. The matchup in the slot has been the best one against the Panthers, as they’ve been responsible for five of the top nine performances the Panthers have allowed to receivers. Before you get too excited, you should know that every one of those receivers saw at least seven targets. In fact, no wide receiver has finished with more than 4.4 PPR points without at least six targets against the Panthers. That’s a number Pettis has seen just once this year, though his 161 snaps since the bye week are 61 more than any other receiver on the team. His struggles last week need to be forgotten as the game was played in a mudslide, but it’s still not time to trust him as anything more than a low-end WR4.

TEs
Greg Olsen: In three games against the Bucs and Cardinals (who are the bottom-two teams against tight ends), Olsen has averaged 7.7 targets, 5.3 receptions, 79.0 yards, and 0.66 touchdowns per game, which amounts to 17.1 PPR points. In the three games against other opponents, he’s averaged 5.0 targets, 2.0 receptions, 13.7 yards, and 0.0 touchdowns, which amounts to just 3.7 PPR points per game. So, when you see the 49ers on the schedule, who have allowed the third-fewest points to the tight end position, including a league-low 22.3 yards per game, what do you do? Bench him. He’s nothing more than a middling TE2 this week.

George Kittle: Outside of the game last week that featured men sliding around in mud, Kittle has offered a rock-solid floor this year, and that’s despite Garoppolo’s struggles. His fantasy finishes had been TE9-TE12-TE11-TE1-TE3 prior to last week, so we were trending in the right direction. If you were to look at “who’s allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends?” you’d see the Panthers have allowed the seventh-fewest points, which would make most believe it’s a tough matchup. That’s not really the case, as they’ve seen just 27 targets on the season. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed the seventh-highest completion-rate, the 12th-most yards per target, and the fifth-most fantasy points per target. In fact, their numbers are nearly identical to the 2018 Panthers who allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. That team allowed seven different tight ends to finish with top-eight performances against them. If you want to play Kittle in cash games, I’m not going to be the one to tell you not to.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

Total: 51.0
Line: HOU by 6.5

QBs
Derek Carr: After allowing Carr to throw 38 times in Week 2, we’ve seen the Raiders dial back his pass attempts, including a season-low 28 attempts in Week 7. The bad news is that Carr has still yet to score 16 fantasy points this year. The good news is that he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in three of the last four games. Will he chuck the ball more than 28 times in Week 8? Probably. No quarterback has left a game against the Texans throwing the ball fewer than 33 times, and we’ve now seen three quarterbacks reach 43-plus attempts. You can’t run the ball very well against them, so it kind of makes sense. The only quarterbacks who failed to throw multiple touchdowns against them were backup quarterbacks. Well, kind of. Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen were the only two quarterbacks who failed to throw at least two touchdowns against them, though Minshew was still able to post 18.1 fantasy points due to his 56 yards on the ground. That leaves Allen as the only one who finished with less than 18.1 fantasy points and outside the top-15 quarterbacks for that particular week. This brings us to an odd point because you’d have to go back to Week 14 of last year to find the last time Carr hit that mark. It does help that the Texans were down to just two healthy cornerbacks at the end of last week. Carr should be able to post at least respectable QB2 numbers with a shot at top-12 production, though you shouldn’t bet on it.

Deshaun Watson: He lost Will Fuller last week to a hamstring injury, but in steps Stills into a bigger role that he’s done well in throughout his career with both the Saints and Dolphins. Watson’s game log hasn’t looked particularly great this year, as he’s thrown one or zero touchdowns in 4-of-7 games, while he’s thrown at least three touchdowns in the other three games. The part that’s picked him up has been his mobility, as he’s totaled at least 32 yards and/or a rushing touchdown in 6-of-7 games. With three finishes outside the top-16 quarterbacks and four finishes inside the top-four quarterbacks, it’s been feast or famine. The Raiders are a matchup that opponents have feasted on, as 4-of-6 quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns. Through seven weeks, they’ve allowed two QB1 performances. Not QB1 as in top-12, but rather QB1 as in the No. 1 quarterback of that particular week. The only quarterback who averaged less than 7.7 yards per attempt against them was Jacoby Brissett, though judging by his three touchdowns, he didn’t do so bad. The Raiders have seen the sixth-fewest pass attempts against them but are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position, which includes a massive 8.92 yards per attempt. Watson should be in the race for the QB1 performance at home this week.

RBs
Josh Jacobs: We’ve now seen three targets in back-to-back games for Jacobs, which is huge for his fantasy floor, as he had just five targets through the first four games. He only ran 12 routes last week, though, which ranked 20th among running backs, as Jalen Richard ran eight, DeAndre Washington six, and Alec Ingold six. Ideally, we see him get into the 20 routes per game territory, especially on a team that falls behind somewhat regularly. I know, they’re 3-3, but do you think they’re a good football team? The Texans aren’t the same run defense without Jadeveon Clowney on the team, but they’re still solid against the run, as they’ve allowed just two rushing touchdowns all year. Teams find it much easier to move the ball through the air, as evidenced by the 67:33 pass to run ratio by their opponents. That’s the second-highest passing percentage, behind only the Patriots’ opponents. They’ve faced an average of just 17.4 carries per game by running backs, and knowing DeAndre Washington has garnered at least six carries in each of the last four games, it’s worrisome. The reason the routes are so important, however, is due to the fact that no team in the NFL has allowed more fantasy points through the air as the Texans have. They’ve allowed just 61.6 fantasy points on the ground, but a massive 109.3 PPR points through the air. There have already been seven running backs who have accumulated at least 40 yards through the air. Jacobs should be in lineups as an RB2 but we’re really hoping that his routes run increases in this game to take advantage of the Texans’ weaknesses. *Update* Jacobs was unable to practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to a shoulder injury he suffered last week. They haven’t ruled him out, but even if active, he could have a reduced workload. 

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: Here are the touch counts for Hyde this year: 11-20-10-12-21-27-12. They’re a bit more volatile than you’d like, but how about when they win? His touch totals in those games are 20-10-21-27. That’s important because they’re massive home favorites against the Raiders this week. Oddly enough, no running back has totaled more than 16 carries against the Raiders this season. Opponents have averaged just over 20 carries per game against them, and oddly enough, the Vikings were the only team of running backs to total more than 99 yards on the ground. Dalvin Cook has been the only individual running back who’s totaled more than 58 yards on the ground. This is not good for Hyde, who’s not involved in the passing game at all. He’s seen one of less targets in 6-of-7 games. Not that the Texans will need to check down to running backs much this week, but it’s still damning to his fantasy floor if he can’t get much on the ground. He’s just a middling RB3 in this game who will need to score in order to satisfy his owners. Johnson has totaled in-between 7-10 touches in each of the last four games, making him a weak flex option most weeks. He’ll have a bigger role in games they fall behind, as his 22 targets easily trump Hyde’s nine targets, but knowing they’re almost a full touchdown favorite, this is not a Johnson gamescript.

WRs
Tyrell Williams: We’ve heard Gruden say that Williams will be questionable for Week 8, so that’s a move in the right direction. We’ll approach this as if he’ll play, but make sure to come back on Saturday when I do the updates with practice participation. The Texans are really hurting at cornerback right now, as Bradley Roby has been dealing with a hamstring injury, Johnathan Joseph re-injured his hamstring in Week 7, and Phillip Gaines just went to injured reserve. That’s their three starting cornerbacks potentially out for this game. Even without all those injuries, the Texans have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers, including nine receivers who’ve scored 15-plus PPR points. It’s tough to say who his cornerback matchup would be at this point with all the injuries, but we do know that it’s an above matchup if Williams is ready for it. Provided he gets in a full practice by the end of the week, Williams has the looks of an upside WR3/4 option who comes with risk of a flare-up in game. In an ideal world, we’d wait to ensure he can make it through a full game before trusting him, but this matchup is very enticing. *Update* Williams has practiced on a limited basis this week and is considered questionable. 

Trevor Davis: We don’t know why Zay Jones was inactive last week but it’s likely due to the quick turnaround to learn the new playbook. Davis played 50 snaps while no other receiver was in for more than 30 snaps, so he’d be the No. 2 to Tyrell Williams (if he plays). With the injuries surrounding the Texans cornerback unit, Davis is someone worth paying attention to this week, especially if you’re in need of a wide receiver spot-start. The Texans have allowed 59 yards and/or a touchdown to 13 different wide receivers through seven games and might be without their top three cornerbacks in this game. The status of Williams would also impact Davis, as he’d have an even higher target floor. Opposing wide receivers have averaged 22.7 targets per game, so there’s room for both of them to perform. Davis has the looks of a WR4 if Williams plays, but could be moved into the WR3 conversation if Williams is out.

Deandre Hopkins: We’ve now seen Hopkins targeted 12 times in back-to-back games, and is now heading into a matchup with the Raiders who’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Not just that, but they just traded away their best cornerback. He was the only one who is of starter quality, though he hadn’t been playing nearly as well this year. We’re likely to see rookie Trayvon Mullen step into his role, which is good news for Hopkins and the Texans receivers. He’s only seen five targets in coverage but has allowed four catches for 34 yards and a touchdown on them. Hopkins will see the most of him in coverage. Welcome to the NFL, rookie. The other starting cornerback, Daryl Worley, is a veteran who I’d consider as below average. He’s only allowed a 54.3 percent catch-rate, but he’s also allowed a touchdown every 17 targets in coverage. Knowing the Raiders have done well to stop the run this year, the Texans are likely to move the ball through Watson and the passing game, which is obviously good news for Hopkins. He’s a WR1 every week regardless of the matchup, but this could be a smash spot.

Kenny Stills: We know that Will Fuller is going to miss a few weeks with what’s being described as a severe hamstring injury, which means Stills walks into two wide receiver sets with Hopkins. His average depth of target has been close to Fuller’s anyway, so it should be a natural transition. It’s not likely he gets all of Fuller’s target share, but Fuller had seen at least six targets in five straight games, so there’s a big void to fill. Stills filled his role in last week’s game and totaled five targets, four receptions, and 105 yards. He didn’t find the end zone, but it’s good to see the targets in an abbreviated game. He’s going to see a lot of Daryl Worley in this game, a cornerback who has been timed at 4.64 seconds in the 40-yard dash. You have to wonder if they move Worley to Hopkins’ side and stick rookie Trayvon Mullen on Stills, as he’s two-tenths of a second quicker. The Raiders have allowed an NFL-high 32 pass plays to go for 20-plus yards this year, which plays right into Stills’ wheelhouse. He has the looks of a solid WR3 in this game, though there are many avenues the Texans have to success.

Keke Coutee: Now that Stills will slide into Fuller’s role, Coutee gets his full-time slot role back and no longer has to worry about Stills stealing half the snaps. Coutee hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game this year, but attacking the Raiders in the slot would make a lot of sense. They’ve been absolutely demolished in the slot this year, as Lamarcus Joyner hasn’t transitioned well from playing safety the last few years. While it’s mostly him allowing the production, the whole team has struggled to defend the slot. They’ve seen 59 targets in the slot that have turned into 46 catches for 583 yards and five touchdowns. That’s 9.9 yards per target with a touchdown every 11.8 targets. It’s tough to project success for every Texans receiver, though each of them have great matchups, which all points back to Watson having a big game. Coutee is the least attractive even though he may have the best matchup, and that’s due to his lower target share (13 percent) and air yards share (12 percent). Consider him an upside WR4/5-type option.

TEs
Darren Waller: After being held scoreless through five games, Waller made up for it in a big way, totaling 126 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers last week. There was actually a third touchdown in there that was called back due to penalty. His seven-plus targets in 5-of-6 games make him a locked-and-loaded TE1 every week. The Texans have allowed the 11th-fewest points per game to the tight end position and it’s not due to a lack of trying, as their opponents have been targeted an average of 6.4 times per game. Despite playing against Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Austin Hooper, and Eric Ebron, they’ve allowed just 1.47 PPR points per target to the position, which ranks as the second-lowest mark in the league. Hooper was the only tight end who totaled more than four receptions against them, which highlights a fairly low floor for even some of the game’s best tight ends. Waller should remain in lineups as a TE1 regardless, as he’s matchup-proof with his target share in the offense, though his floor may come down a tad if Tyrell Williams returns.

Darren Fells and Jordan Akins: The duo split the routes once again in Week 7, though Akins led the way while running 27 routes to Fells’ 18 routes. Both of them saw just two targets in the game, so not nearly enough to trust them on a weekly basis. It does help that Fuller is out of the lineup, as it clears up a few available targets. Sure, Stills is going to walk into Fuller’s role, but that leaves Stills’ old role (and targets) vacated. The Raiders were the worst team in the NFL against tight ends last year in this exact scheme, and have now lost their starting strong safety, inside linebacker, and top cornerback. That cannot help. You see it when tight ends get targeted, too. They’ve allowed a massive 9.35 yards per target to tight ends with a touchdown every 10.0 targets in coverage. It’s a great matchup and it appears that Akins is the most likely to haul in a few more passes, though he’s nothing more than a middling TE2 with some upside.