Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans
Total: 46.5
Line: TEN by 2.5
QBs
Jameis Winston: The last time we saw Winston on a football field, it was not pretty. He threw five interceptions while taking seven sacks. Over his last two games, he’s been crushed behind the offensive line that’s allowed 13 sacks. Now he’ll go against the Titans, who rank 13th in sack-rate, though they’ve managed just one sack in each of their last two games after racking up 17 sacks over the first five games. The Bucs will have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and though it’s not a good matchup for quarterbacks, it also hasn’t been a particularly bad one, either. We’ve watched 5-of-7 quarterbacks able to post at least 17.4 fantasy points against them, though none have topped 21.2 points. Philip Rivers was the first quarterback to average more than 7.5 yards per attempt against them, so it’s required a bit of volume to post numbers. The best way to describe this matchup is that it’s average. The game has an average total, his team-implied total is average, and the Titans pass defense has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt and a 4.05 percent touchdown-rate, which are both average. One thing that seems fairly certain is that Winston lacks massive upside, as the Titans have now played 23 games under Mike Vrabel, and exactly one quarterback (Deshaun Watson) has posted more than 23 fantasy points against them. This is when you have to ask yourself whether Winston’s risk is worth the reward. You can likely find a better streaming option who offers a higher floor, as Winston should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2 this week. One bonus piece for Winston and the receivers is that starting cornerback Adoree Jackson has been ruled out.
Ryan Tannehill: It was a great performance by Tannehill in Week 7, as he played much better than anyone anticipated in a semi-tough matchup with the Chargers. He completed 23-of-29 passes (79.3 percent) for 312 yards (10.8 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns. The best part was that according to NextGenStats, his expected completion-rate (based on the depth/window of his passes) was just 57.2 percent, a massive 22.1 percent improvement. The closest quarterback in Week 7 was Aaron Rodgers who was 13.9 percent over expected. Now on to play the Bucs, who’ve turned back into the defense we remembered from last year. Over the last four games played, they’ve allowed 114-of-170 passing (67.1 percent) for 1,394 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s an average of 348.5 yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, and that’s not even including Daniel Jones‘ two rushing touchdowns in that stretch. What makes those stats even worse is when you realize they haven’t played a single top-15 quarterback in them (Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater, and Kyle Allen). They’re sacking quarterbacks just 4.9 percent of the time, which ranks as the ninth-lowest mark in the league, and they were able to generate pressure on just 15.8 percent of Bridgewater’s dropbacks in Week 5, then just 23.5 percent of Allen’s dropbacks in Week 6. If you’re looking for a streamer who’s available in 95 percent of leagues, Tannehill has the look of a high-end QB2 this week.
RBs
Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber: Coming out of the bye week, this is likely our last chance to hope for a workhorse out of this backfield. That’s the time you can make dramatic changes if you want to, so here’s to hoping. The two split just 12 carries in London and neither of them saw a single target. You’d think an offense that’s averaging 28.8 points per game (4th in the NFL) would produce some useful fantasy performances, right? The Titans aren’t a great matchup for running backs who aren’t involved in the passing game, as they’ve allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns over the 23 games under Mike Vrabel. They have faced a league-high 61 targets to running backs, which has propelled them to allow the 16th-most fantasy points to running backs. Breaking it down a bit further, they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points on the ground to running backs, but the third-most points through the air. Knowing that Barber has nine targets on the year while Jones has six, this matchup can be a problem for fantasy owners. The fact that opposing running backs have combined for just 19.7 carries per game doesn’t bode well for a timeshare. Both of these running backs should be considered middling RB4s with minimal upside and low floors.
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: With Tannehill under center, we saw the Titans roll with Henry in a feature role again, as he played 74.2 percent of the snaps, which is his second-highest mark of the year. He also totaled 23 of the available 24 touches, which bodes well for his future success. This matchup may seem good when you think about the Bucs and how many points they’ve allowed (at least 31 points in 5-of-6 games), but that’s not the case. In fact, they’ve allowed the third-fewest points to running backs, and that’s despite playing against Christian McCaffrey twice, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida, and Todd Gurley. Their run defense is legit. Running backs have averaged just 24.0 touches per game against them, which is one of the lowest marks in football, so teams have caught onto their strengths/weaknesses. They’re not just allowing a league-low 2.72 yards per carry, but they’re also allowing just 1.30 PPR points per target to running backs, which ranks as the fifth-best mark. Henry has the ability to break a 75-yard touchdown at any point, but he needs to get past the initial line of defense to do it, which is something that’s been difficult against the Bucs. You don’t want to overlook his volume, as it’s in the elite territory, but this matchup isn’t a great one for his skill-set knowing no running back has topped 62 yards against them. He should be treated as a volume RB2 this week who should be avoided in cash games, though tournaments make sense considering the amount of points the Bucs give up. Lewis should not be owned in redraft leagues.
WRs
Mike Evans: It’s been a rocky road for Evans’ owners this year, as his weekly finishes of WR81-WR50-WR1-WR11-WR105-WR9 have been all over the map. That’s three top-12 performances, which not many receivers can say, but it’s also three performances of WR50 or worse. The good news is that he’s seen at least seven targets in four of the last five games, including 17 of them in their last game. The Titans don’t shadow opposing receivers and they may be without starting cornerback Adoree Jackson, who is dealing with a foot injury that caused him to leave last week’s game (he’s since been ruled out). That would mean LeShaun Sims gets promoted to the No. 3 cornerback behind Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan. Evans would see all of them, though Butler is the one he’d see most of the time. He’s played better than he did at the start of last season, though that’s not saying much considering he’s still allowing a 105.8 QB Rating when targeted. Since the start of the 2017 season, he’s allowed 18 touchdowns in his coverage, which is the most in the NFL. Sure, two of his touchdowns went to T.Y. Hilton and D.J. Chark, who are both No. 1 receivers, but Evans is right up there, too. The Titans have still yet to allow a receiver more than 91 yards against them, which is a long way from the eight receivers they allowed to accomplish that against them last year. The loss of Jackson could be big, so stay tuned for injury updates, but Evans needs to be in lineups as a high-end WR2 regardless. *Update* Jackson has been ruled out, upgrading Evans’ matchup significantly.
Chris Godwin: Even while getting his bye week out of the way, Godwin is the No. 2 receiver in fantasy football after seven weeks. Even better; he’s finished outside the WR3 range just once all season and has finished as a top-six receiver on four separate occasions. Oddly enough, the one game he struggled was against the Giants, though that’s the game Evans scored three touchdowns. He’s going to see a lot of Logan Ryan in this game, a cornerback who can be beat regularly. He’s played above what was expected this year, as he has more interceptions than he has touchdowns allowed. Over his last three years, he’s constantly allowed a 63-69 percent completion-rate for 10.3-11.6 yards per reception, and a touchdown here and there. He’s an average cornerback matched up against an elite wide receiver this week. We watched Mohamed Sanu rack up nine catches for 91 yards in this matchup, which highlights the opportunity for Godwin. If the Titans are without starter Adoree Jackson on the perimeter (they are), we could see the Bucs go with a more perimeter-based attack, which would be more in Evans’ wheelhouse, but who are we kidding, you’re starting Godwin as a WR1 every week. Paying up for him in cash games may not be the best thing to do knowing the lack of production the Titans have allowed to wide receivers (nobody has finished better than WR12), combined with the big increase in Godwin’s price.
Corey Davis: Targeting your best receiver? Who would think of such a thing? Despite throwing the ball just 29 times, Tannehill managed to target Davis a season-high seven times where he caught six of them for 80 yards and a touchdown. It was his second top-10 performance of the year and now he gets to play a Bucs defense that has allowed 44.1 PPR points per game to wide receivers, which is the second-most in the league. They have faced 23.8 targets per game against them, so it’s natural to expect them to allow some production, but allowing 12 receivers to reach 10.9 or more PPR points through six games? There have been eight wide receivers who’ve been targeted more than six times, and every one of them scored at least 13.1 PPR points, with four of them scoring 23-plus points and finishing as top-six wide receivers. Knowing the Bucs have stymied opponents on the ground (2.72 yards per carry), the Titans will be forced to lean on the pass. Knowing that Davis saw 27 percent of the team’s air yards from Tannehill, he should be safe bet for WR3 production this week with upside among the top-12.
A.J. Brown: He didn’t have as much production as Davis, but Brown proved to be very useful with Tannehill as well, seeing a team-high eight targets and catching six of them for 64 yards. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but it’s all we have to go off with Tannehill under center, and they’re walking into a matchup with a funnel defense. As mentioned in Davis’ paragraph, the Bucs have allowed 12 receivers to reach 10.9 or more PPR points through six games. That’s the most in the NFL, and they’ve already had their bye week. The tandem of Carlton Davis and Vernon Hargreaves is a hard one to avoid if we’re being honest, though do we trust Tannehill enough to support two fantasy relevant receivers? In this matchup, it’s not out of the question, putting Brown in the WR4 conversation in a great matchup.
Adam Humphries: Another revenge game. The connection between Tannehill and Humphries has been solid, as he’s caught all 10 targets for 87 yards, though that’s hardly anything to get excited about. He’s the outlet when the pass-rush gets past their offensive line but knowing the Bucs haven’t got after the quarterback very often, it may not be a highly-targeted game for him. The Bucs made the move to bench M.J. Stewart and go to rookie Sean Murphy-Bunting before the bye week, a move that hasn’t panned out just yet, as Murphy-Bunting has allowed 9-of-13 passing for 89 yards and a touchdown in his young career. There are plenty of receivers who get 3-6 targets per game like Humphries has gotten over the last four weeks, so it’s tough to say he’s a must-play or even a recommended start considering the plus matchups for both Davis and Brown, but he is on the WR5 radar knowing they’ll have trouble moving the ball on the ground.
TEs
O.J. Howard: As is the case with their backfield, you have to wonder if the bye week changed anything in their game-planning moving forward. The bye week is a time to make the more drastic changes you want to make, so if it doesn’t happen for Howard here, it may never happen in 2019. The Titans were a brutal matchup for tight ends last year, as they allowed just 8.9 PPR points per game to the position and a league-low 1.41 PPR points per target. It hasn’t been such a bad matchup this year, as they’ve allowed four different tight ends finish as top-10 options, and then another two finish as TE13 and TE15. The one important part we can’t miss, however, is that they’ve allowed just two tight ends to top 37 yards, while the others relied on touchdowns to be fantasy relevant. Those two tight ends who finished with more than 37 yards were Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry, who each saw eight-plus targets, something we’ve yet to come close to with Howard. I’ll be curious to see if he’s utilized a bit more out of their bye week, but for now, consider him a high-end TE2 in a semi-decent matchup. *Update* Howard has been ruled out for this game. Cameron Brate takes his place in the rankings as a high-end TE2.
Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith: There’s an update to The Primer every Saturday morning that highlights changes that took place during the week, and specifically injury updates. Walker was one of the players who was updated as he was hurt in Thursday’s practice, then missed Friday’s practice, making him risky to rely on for production. Smith stepped in and played well, so we should treat them as one right now heading into the matchup with the Bucs. This is a matchup you want to attack with tight ends, so playing Walker if he’s healthy, or Smith if he’s not would make plenty of sense. The Bucs have played six games this year. In those six games, they’ve allowed six tight ends to finish as top-14 options in that particular week, including four of them to finish top-six. Sure, this is a new defensive scheme, but it’s reminiscent to last year when they allowed 11 tight ends to finish as top-12 performers against them with six of them being top-six options. The one important tidbit is that each tight end they played finished with at least six targets; a number we’ve seen Walker reach four times this year. If Walker practices and plays, he’s got to be in lineups as a TE1. If he’s forced to miss this game, Smith becomes a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 streamer special. *Update* Walker did not practice all week and has been ruled out for this game.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Total: 43.0
Line: BUF by 1.5
QBs
Carson Wentz: So much for the Eagles going into Dallas and beating the Cowboys, eh? The Eagles offense has looked flat the last three weeks, as Wentz has continually been put into a hole to dig himself out of and trying to do it without DeSean Jackson as a field-stretching element has been too much to ask. The time of possession also hasn’t been in his favor, as they’ve had the ball just 48 percent of the time over the last three weeks, the 11th lowest mark in football. Now he’s going out to Buffalo to play a Bills team’s yet to allow more than one passing touchdown to a quarterback. Even going back to the start of last year, there have been just four quarterbacks who’ve thrown more than one touchdown against them in their last 22 games. During that whole time, just four quarterbacks have been able to finish better than the QB15 on the week against them, and none have finished with more than 22 fantasy points. You can’t rely on much of anything, really. Over that same 22-game stretch, they’ve allowed just four quarterbacks to throw for more than 256 yards. Ridiculous, right? Wentz is also likely to be without left tackle Jason Peters for another week, which certainly doesn’t help. Wentz is not someone you should be starting this week.
Josh Allen: We were worried about the Bills running away with the game last week as the only reason to fade Allen, but the game remained close, and he finished with a healthy 19.2 fantasy points against the Dolphins. They were obviously a great matchup and the Eagles aren’t much better. They did get Jalen Mills back last week, though it didn’t stop Dak Prescott from completing 21-of-27 passes for 239 yards and one passing touchdown while rushing for another. It’s no secret that the Eagles lack cornerbacks in the secondary and it’s the reason they’ve allowed 7.93 yards per attempt and a 5.51 percent touchdown-rate through seven games. Their front seven has also been bitten by the injury bug, limiting a once feared pass-rush. We’ve now watched four different quarterbacks throw for at least 320 yards and multiple touchdowns against them. One of the quarterbacks who didn’t was Luke Falk, so that shouldn’t even count. The Eagles have also allowed five rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks over their last 20 games, which bodes well for Allen, who’s now rushed for at least 21 yards in every contest, including a rushing touchdown in 3-of-6 games. The only game he’s finished with less than 15.96 fantasy points was against the Patriots and everyone has struggled against them. Allen should be considered a high-floor low-end QB1 this week.
RBs
Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders: This backfield is getting worse and worse to try and predict as the weeks go on, as Howard went from playing 40-of-64 snaps in Week 6 to playing just 23-of-60 snaps in Week 7. They fell behind in both games, so that’s not it. We’ve also seen Boston Scott tally 11 carries and a target over the last two weeks, so it’s clear that Doug Pederson hates everything about your fantasy team (I don’t know how to insert the sarcasm font). One thing I’ve continually pointed out about the matchup with the Bills for running backs is that this team has played 38 games under Sean McDermott. In those 38 games, they’ve allowed 39 rushing touchdowns to running backs. Howard has received seven of the nine carries available inside the five-yard-line for the Eagles, so he’d be the one we should be looking to for a touchdown this week. The issue with relying on much production out of this backfield is the fact that the Bills opposing running backs have averaged just 19.8 carries per game against them, not nearly enough to support a timeshare. Howard hasn’t totaled less than 11 carries since back in Week 2, so he’s again the one you’d look to for production. He should be considered a low-end RB3 who needs to score in order to hit value due to his lack of involvement in the passing game. Sanders’ touch count the last four weeks has been 11-13-6-9, which is hardly enough to be a competent starter, especially when the offense is struggling. The crazy part is that he’s yet to finish outside the top 44 running backs since Week 1 and has been a top-34 option in four of the last five games despite his lack of touches. Because of that, he should be in the high-end RB4 conversation.
Frank Gore and Devin Singletary: So, remember when we were supposed to get 30-plus carries against the Dolphins last week? Yeah, neither do I. Gore managed to out-touch Singletary 12 to 8, but it didn’t amount to much for either of them. Oddly enough, it was the lowest volume and production Gore had since Week 1. Let’s write that up as a trap game coming off the bye, shall we? The Eagles aren’t nearly as good of a matchup, as the 3.32 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks as the second-lowest number in football. Prior to Ezekiel Elliott smashing them for 111 yards and a touchdown on Sunday night football, they’d yet to allow a running back more than 63 yards on the ground. He was also the first starting running back who was able to average more than 2.87 yards per carry against them, which included a sample size of Aaron Jones, Le’Veon Bell, Dalvin Cook, Kerryon Johnson, and Devonta Freeman. It doesn’t help that they were down to just two linebackers last week, something that could be a problem moving forward. Singletary getting 35-40 percent of the touches is going to be problematic for Gore’s fantasy floor, because we’ll see those 10-12-touch games that are brutal when he’s not involved in the passing game. Gore should be considered a low-floor and low-ceiling RB4-type option in this game. Singletary at least presents big-play ability to turn a bad game into a good one, but seeing just 5-10 touches per game (like he has) won’t put the odds in his favor. He’s nothing more than a boom-or-bust RB4 until the Bills start to move away from Gore (which seems unlikely).
WRs
Alshon Jeffery: It’s official – the Eagles offense is among the most frustrating in all of football. After seeing at least seven targets in each game he’d played, Jeffery saw just five targets against the Cowboys in Week 7 leading to a two-catch, 38-yard performance. He gets no consolation prize this week against the Bills, as he’s going to have a date with Tre’Davious White. He’s one of the better cornerbacks in football, allowing just 17-of-30 passing in his coverage for 234 scoreless yards, as well as intercepting three passes through six games. If DeSean Jackson were on track to play, it would make a bit more sense to like Jeffery, but this is not a matchup to get excited about. He’s nothing more than a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 who you can bench if you have an option you’re considering.
Nelson Agholor: Ever since that news video went viral with the Eagles fan saying Agholor drops everything, we haven’t seen him heavily involved in the offense. Coincidence? I think not (insert sarcasm font). While Jeffery deals with Tre’Davious White, Agholor will see a lot of Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson in coverage. Johnson covers the slot when healthy, which just happened last week, as he missed four games in between Week 1 and Week 7. He’s a second-year cornerback who’s done a solid job in coverage, allowing just 6.6 yards per reception and a 66.0 percent catch-rate in his coverage over his young career. Outside of the Week 1 game against the Jets where Jamison Crowder saw 17 targets, the Bills haven’t allowed a slot-heavy receiver to finish as a top-30 option, which includes Tyler Boyd, Julian Edelman, and Adam Humphries. Some targets should funnel his way due to Jeffery’s tough matchup but playing wide receivers against the Bills typically doesn’t work out well. You can find someone better to attack as a streamer.
John Brown: He’s seen at least five targets in every game, but there’s no way his 73.3 percent catch-rate will hold strong for the rest of the year. He’s going to need more targets in order to remain consistent in fantasy football, but knowing he’s tallied at least 51 yards in each of their six games, you kind of have to play him until he gives you a reason not to. The Eagles cornerbacks are definitely not a reason to fade a wide receiver anyway, as they’ve allowed an NFL-high six wide receivers to score 20-plus PPR points against them this year. By comparison, the Bears have allowed just five wide receivers to reach 10 PPR points. The Eagles also play a lot of man coverage, which is where Brown has straight up dominated the competition, allowing Josh Allen to post a QB Rating of nearly 110.0 when targeting in man coverage. Somehow, seven wide receivers have been able to post 100-plus yards against the Eagles, so go ahead and fire up Brown as a high-end WR3 with upside in this matchup.
Cole Beasley: He caught his first touchdown of the season last week and has now totaled at least 9.0 PPR points in 5-of-6 games this year while seeing an average of 7.3 targets per game. He’s not a sexy play by any means, but if you’re strapped with injuries/bye weeks, he’s offered a high floor for those in need. The Eagles have allowed eight different wide receivers at least 15 PPR points, though none of them have been slot receivers. The biggest games for slot-heavy receivers against them have been Geronimo Allison‘s 3/52/1 performance, Trey Quinn‘s 4/33/1, and Danny Amendola‘s 4/37/0. As you can see, no slot-heavy receiver has totaled more than four receptions against them, though that’s likely due to the perimeter wide receivers having phenomenal matchups. We should expect Brown to be featured while Beasley would be a bit more utilized if the Eagles threw up points on the Bills defense, which is not what we’re expecting. Because of that, he’s just an average WR4 with a limited ceiling, though it’s important to note he’s been a top-40 PPR receiver in 4-of-6 games, which is high-end WR4 or better.
TEs
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert: Here are Ertz’s fantasy finishes in each of the first six weeks: TE16-TE5-TE12-TE7-TE3-TE14-TE22. So, he’s been a high-floor option, but where has his ceiling gone? Based on his opportunity, he should be one of the top-two tight ends, but instead, he’s the TE6 who’s scored just 7.5 more PPR points than the injured Will Dissly, who has less than half the targets Ertz does. Is Goedert eating into his production too much? Not really any more than last year, as Ertz has seen 73 percent of the tight end targets available this year, which is nearly identical to the 73.6 percent of the target share he saw last year. The Bills have not been a matchup to target with tight ends, either. They’ve only played two fantasy relevant tight ends (Evan Engram and Delanie Walker), but they did hold each of them to less than 50 yards. The Bills rank as the second-best team in the league against the position and ranked as the second-best team against them last year, too, so clearly, the scheme doesn’t allow for massive production. In fact, just one tight end (Kyle Rudolph) has finished better than the TE10 against them since the start of 2018. Ertz needs to remain in your lineup but this is not a matchup to expect him to pop back up on the elite radar. He’s not an option in cash this week, but taking a shot on a tight end who could see 10 targets in a tournament with low ownership may not be a bad idea. Goedert isn’t a preferred option this week, as the clear No. 2 tight end in targets on this team in a brutal matchup.
Dawson Knox: The Bills decided to cut back the snaps of Knox last week. Yes, Tyler Kroft returned to the lineup, but he wasn’t targeted at all while Knox saw five targets on the day. Seeing him go from playing 72 percent of the snaps in Week 5 to just 52.7 percent of the snaps in Week 7 is a blow to his streamability, as were the two drops he had in that game, including one where he was wide open down the seam for a 20-plus yard gain. The Eagles defense hasn’t been the dominant one they were against tight ends the last few years under Jim Schwartz, but they’re not bad, either. They’ve allowed just one tight end to haul in more than four passes against them, and that was Jimmy Graham, who saw nine targets in that game. It’s fair to say Knox isn’t going to reach that territory while running just 14 routes (like he did in Week 7). Now that Kroft is working his way back into the lineup, Knox is nothing more than an emergency TE2 who’s likely to see his targets dip.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 44.0
Line: IND by 6.0
QBs
Joe Flacco: I joked on the podcast this week that the Broncos were going to run the ball every play this week, no matter the score, simply because they couldn’t bear to see another Flacco dropback. It was brutal watching him on Thursday night against the depleted Chiefs defense that was missing their best defensive lineman. He’ll now go on the road to play against a Colts defense that’s also shorthanded in the secondary, as they’re missing free safety Malik Hooker. It sounds like he’s nearing a return, but it’d be pretty miraculous for him to play in this game. The Colts have allowed 4-of-6 quarterbacks throw for at least 304 yards against them, which also included two three-touchdown games to Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. Each of those four quarterbacks threw the ball at least 34 times while averaging at least 8.2 yards per attempt. Flacco has thrown one or zero touchdowns in 6-of-7 games this year, with a three-touchdown performance mixed in against the Jaguars (it’s been a weird year). He has, however averaged 8.0 or more yards per attempt on three separate occasions. Knowing the Colts are unlikely to score a lot of points against the Broncos stiff pass defense, we shouldn’t see a whole lot of Flacco this week. He’s nothing more than a high-end QB3 in what’s been a good matchup for quarterbacks (none have finished outside the top-20 against them).
Jacoby Brissett: Is it possible that we’ve all underestimated Brissett? He’s been fantastic this year, scoring at least 16.3 fantasy points in 5-of-6 games. We knew the Texans was a good matchup, but we’ve now watched Brissett throw for multiple touchdowns in all but one game. He’s going to have a tough test in Week 8. Despite the early struggles with the defense to start the season and removal of Bradley Chubb, the Broncos have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than 259 yards. It may sound crazy, but 5-of-7 have thrown for 213 yards or less. It’s not just that, either. Keep in mind they’ve played against Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew, and some Patrick Mahomes. They’ve allowed just six passing scores through seven weeks. Maybe Vic Fangio is still a good defensive play-caller? This has not been a matchup to attack with streamers and they will have had 10 days to prepare for this game, so why risk it with Brissett knowing the Broncos have allowed just one quarterback to finish better than the QB21? You can likely find better streaming options this week, though Brissett will be back in the top-15 conversation very soon.
RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: We watched Lindsay struggle for the first time last week and there’s many who are ready to bury him and anoint Freeman the back to own. News flash: It was just the second time this year where Lindsay has finished outside of the top-28 PPR running backs. Meanwhile, that was just the second time Freeman has finished better than RB24. It’s a timeshare, as we’ve talked about quite often in this article, but one that Lindsay is still in charge of. The Colts have not been a good matchup for early-down running backs under defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, as they’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher against them. It’s now a 22-game sample size. That doesn’t mean running backs can’t produce, as they have allowed 19 top-24 performances to running backs in that span. Part of the issue is that neither of these teams work at a fast pace and this could be a low volume game. It’s why running backs have averaged just 18.7 carries per game against the Colts. When splitting that down between a 55/45 timeshare, it gets dicey relying on them for too much production. The duo has combined for 21-24-36-15-28-26-21 carries over the course of the season, so while they have averaged much more than the 18.7 carries the Colts have faced, we’re likely looking at somewhere around the 18-24 carry mark. Many assume that Lindsay is the passing-down back because of his small stature, but that’s not the case. In fact, Freeman has four more targets on the season and has run 35 more routes than Lindsay, so it benefits Freeman when the game goes south, which this one is projected to do. Lindsay should be considered a high-end RB3 in what should be a close game, while Freeman is still in the low-end RB3 conversation with the 11-16 opportunities he’s getting each week.
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: We often look for positive gamescripts to project a crush spot for Mack, and this could be one of them. We’ve watched eight running backs rack up 14 or more touches against the Broncos this season, including 31 of them to Leonard Fournette, who went off for 245 total yards in their matchup. He wasn’t the only one who produced, as both Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs scored two touchdowns in their matchups with this defense. It has been somewhat volume dependent, as running backs have averaged just 3.98 yards per carry against them, but when you see running backs average 29.9 touches per game, production adds up. The Colts are at home and have the offensive line to impose their will. Mack should be started as a mid-to-low-end RB1 with plenty of upside. Hines is more valuable in games where the Colts fall behind and it’s tough to say the Broncos present enough firepower to make that happen. The Broncos have also allowed just 5.06 yards per target to running backs, which is one of the lower marks in the league. Hines is nothing more than a low-end RB4.
WRs
Courtland Sutton: We’re now seven weeks into the NFL season and Sutton sits as the No. 10 wide receiver in PPR formats. Keep in mind that’s despite Flacco throwing one or zero touchdowns in 6-of-7 games. He’s yet to see 10 targets in a game but has seen at least seven targets in every game. Now that the Broncos have dealt Emmanuel Sanders away, that target floor feels even more stable. There have been just five receivers who’ve seen at least seven targets against the Colts this year. The finishes of those receivers? WR3-WR7-WR7-WR12-WR26. Those are some great odds for Sutton this week against the Colts zone-heavy coverage. On 25 targets against zone this year, Sutton has caught 17 balls for 173 yards and two touchdowns. He should be in lineups as a WR2 who has top-12 upside in this game.
DaeSean Hamilton: With Emmanuel Sanders off to the 49ers, Hamilton enters the starting lineup. The matchup with the Colts isn’t a bad one at all, as they’re more than willing to allow the receptions underneath, as evidenced by the 73.8 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed to receivers. They’ve allowed seven of them record 75-plus yards against them, which is just over one per game. We know Sutton is the favorite of Flacco and that Sanders had seen five or less targets in three of the last five games, so it’s not as if Hamilton is automatically walking into elite volume. He should be added, but there’s no guarantee that his role changes all that much, as Sanders was running just 27 percent of his routes from the slot. We could see Tim Patrick inserted into his role while Hamilton sees slightly more targets. He shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a middling WR5 this week. Let’s see how much his role actually changes.
T.Y. Hilton: He’s averaging 8.0 targets per game on the year, and though he’s still yet to reach 90 yards in a game (he should have last week but dropped two passes), he’s kept his fantasy numbers up with a touchdown in 4-of-5 games. With the way the Broncos have been deploying Chris Harris Jr, you must assume he’ll shadow Hilton in this matchup, especially knowing Hilton goes into the slot just 30 percent of the time. The receivers Harris Jr. has shadowed included Allen Robinson (4/41/0), Davante Adams (4/56/0), D.J. Chark (4/44/0), and Keenan Allen (4/18/0). It’s fair to say that Harris is among the best in the game at shadowing opposing No. 1 receivers and that teams should probably look another direction. Even if they did decide to target Hilton heavily, the Broncos have allowed just 120.6 yards per game to the wide receiver position as a whole. It’s hard to sit someone like Hilton, but you shouldn’t be expecting much more than WR3-type production versus Harris and the Broncos.
Zach Pascal: After his big performance in Week 7, many will be wondering whether he should be on the radar in Week 8. There’s an issue with relying on numbers going forward, as he’s still sharing snaps with Deon Cain and Chester Rogers. The snap count in Week 7 was Hilton 67, Rogers 39, Pascal 34, and Cain 30. The Broncos have allowed just 120.6 yards per game to wide receivers, so it’s not a matchup that you should be targeting with questionable players, so feel free to let someone else risk it and start Pascal this week. The only reason we can create a narrative where he does well is that Hilton is shadowed by Chris Harris Jr. and it allows Pascal to eat up the production available, but you shouldn’t bank on that.
TEs
Noah Fant: He saw a career-high five targets against the Chiefs last week, though it led to a career-low one catch for seven yards. He’s still yet to top 37 yards in a game and has just one touchdown, making him a risky play no matter what the matchup looks like. If there’s a week that’ll tempt you to use him, it’s this one. The Colts have allowed a massive 75 percent completion-rate to tight ends, while allowing a touchdown every 16 targets. That’s amounted to the third-most fantasy points per game to the position, though it doesn’t help that they’ve played against Austin Hooper, Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Hunter Henry in four of their six games. We also have to wonder if Fant’s role gets reduced after he dropped two balls against the Chiefs. The matchup should allow for some checkdowns to Fant but as is the case with most tight ends, nothing is guaranteed. He’s in the TE2 conversation in a plus matchup.
Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: Coming out of the bye week, we saw Doyle run 30 routes while Ebron ran just 16 routes, though it was Ebron who caught four balls for 70 yards and a touchdown. It’s reminiscent of last year when Doyle had the better vitals, but Ebron somehow always ended up with more production. Like almost all positions against the Broncos, tight ends haven’t been very useful against them. They’ve allowed just one touchdown on 52 targets to the position while also holding them to just 6.27 yards per target. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve held tight ends to those numbers despite playing against Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Delanie Walker in three of those games. Knowing this is a timeshare and that no quarterback has thrown for more than 259 yards against the Broncos, these two are likely touchdown-or-bust options. Ebron gets the nod as he’s been better in the red zone, but he’s nothing more than a middling TE2 in this matchup.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Total: 53.5
Line: SEA by 3.5
QBs
Russell Wilson: As it turns out, Wilson is human after all. Shake off the bad outing in Week 7 very quickly because he’s about to walk into what might be the best matchup in football right now. Across the board, they are simply horrendous. They’ve allowed a 69.4 percent completion-rate (5th-highest), 7.42 percent touchdown-rate (3rd-highest), 8.40 yards per attempt (5th-highest), and are generating a sack on a league-low 2.1 percent of dropbacks. Each of the last five quarterbacks who’ve played against them have posted at least 20.8 fantasy points and finished as a top-12 quarterback, including four in the top-five. They’ve done that while none of them have finished with more than 37 pass attempts against them. One of the oddest stats I found when researching this game was that the Falcons have allowed at least 22 rushing yards or a rushing touchdown to 6-of-7 quarterbacks. Don’t overthink this one… play Wilson as a high-end QB1 and profit.
Matt Ryan: They’re calling Ryan’s injury an ankle sprain, which is precisely what it looked like. The issue is that it’s his plant foot and it could affect his ability to put velocity on the ball. Dan Quinn refuses to rule him out, but you should be prepared to be without Ryan this week. The Seahawks have had one of the easier schedules when it comes to quarterbacks, as they’ve played just two top-15 fantasy quarterbacks, and both were of the mobile variety (Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray). Despite that, they’ve allowed 6-of-7 quarterbacks to finish as top-18 options against them. They’ve only generated a 4.2 percent sack-rate through seven games, and it’s not going to help that they’ll be missing defensive end Ezekiel Ansah once again this week. They’ve allowed at least 26 points to their opponents in five of the last six games and it’s not as if the Falcons are running the ball very well. If Ryan were able to play in this game, it’s a good one with shootout potential, but it’s tough to see it happening. If he sits, we’d see Matt Schaub take his place. He’s been with the Falcons four years now, though he’s thrown just 16 passes in that time. He’s 38 years old and was a competent quarterback some time ago, though it’s tough to say if that’s still the case. If Ryan plays, he’s a risky low-end QB1 though he comes with upside. If Ryan sits, Schaub should be able to deliver top-20 numbers, but he’s not someone you should feel comfortable playing in 1QB leagues. *Update* Ryan did get in a limited practice on Friday, which is a step in the right direction.
RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: There are just five running backs who average more opportunity than Carson this year in terms of expected fantasy output by touches. Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, and Nick Chubb. That’s it. The best part is that it’s been consistent, as he’s totaled at least 26 opportunities (carries and targets) in each of his last four games. There’s plenty of work available against the Falcons, too. They’ve faced an average of 30.0 running back touches per game this year, which is one of the higher marks in football. They haven’t allowed max efficiency though, as they’ve allowed just 3.72 yards per carry on the year. There have been just two running backs who’ve finished with more than 74 yards on the ground and both of them saw 20-plus carries, which is territory that Carson has hit in four straight games. You’d think that a team who’s allowed 34-plus points in each of the last three games would allow some massive games to running backs, though that hasn’t been the case, as just David Johnson was the only one who finished top-12 against them over their last six games. You’re playing Carson as an RB1 every week, but this comes down to whether you should trust him in DFS. He’s safe enough for cash games with his locked-in 20-plus touches, and knowing his team is projected for 28.5 points, he’s in-play for tournaments.
Devonta Freeman: He picked a fight with Aaron Donald last week, tried to punch him, was then lifted off his feet (by Donald), and then ejected. It wasn’t a good day for him. With Ito Smith out for this game (concussion), we could see one of Freeman’s bigger workloads of the year. The Seahawks have already allowed four top-12 performances to running backs this year and it would be five if we included Lamar Jackson‘s 116-yard, one-touchdown on the ground from last week. The only starting running backs who haven’t finished as top-18 options against the Seahawks were Joe Mixon (who was hurt early in that game) and Mark Ingram (who totaled just 13 touches while Jackson went off). With a banged-up Matt Ryan or Matt Schaub under center, the Falcons would be wise to give Freeman more touches in this game. Even if the Seahawks jump out to a lead, we should see plenty of dump-downs to Freeman. We’ve seen both Alvin Kamara and David Johnson rack-up the yardage through the air, as both players totaled at least eight receptions and 92 yards. Brian Hill is the backup to Freeman in this game and he’s not known to be a premier passing-down back, either. Knowing the workload available to him, Freeman should be in lineups as a solid RB2.
WRs
Tyler Lockett: Despite ranking 19th in targets, Lockett currently sits as the No. 9 receiver in PPR formats. Going back to the start of last year, he’s caught 14 touchdowns on 119 targets. Playing with Wilson has its benefits, but Lockett has been great in his own right. His target share is still not where I’d like it to be for a borderline WR1, but I’m done fighting the expected regression. We’re just seven weeks into the season, but the Falcons have already allowed 13 wide receivers post double-digit fantasy games against them, including five top-15 performances. The biggest performance, of course, was to another speedy wide receiver. Remember when Will Fuller went bananas catching 14 balls for 217 yards and three touchdowns? Yeah, that was against the Falcons. Converted safety Damontae Kazee has been covering the slot for them, and let’s just say it hasn’t gone well. While covering the slot (where Lockett plays most of the time), he’s allowed 18-of-22 passing for 201 yards and a touchdown. I still can’t recommend Lockett in DFS cash games with his low target totals, but you’re playing him as a low-end WR1 in this game and he’s worth a shot in tournaments.
D.K. Metcalf: It’s odd to see such consistency out of a receiver with four or less catches in every game, but Metcalf has totaled in-between 44-89 yards in 6-of-7 games this year. He saw a career-high nine targets in Week 7, though he fumbled away the Seahawks chance to make a comeback in the fourth quarter as he simply dropped the ball while trying to transfer the ball to his other arm. His 575 air yards still leads the team, so we have to keep putting him out there as an upside WR4. The Falcons have already allowed 28 passing plays of 20-plus yards this year (3rd-most) and five plays of 40-plus yards (5th-most). They’ve been without Desmond Trufant the last two weeks, and we don’t expect him back this week, so it’s Isaiah Oliver, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, and Kendall Sheffield in coverage. Oliver has been destroyed in coverage all year, forcing the Falcons to rotate Wreh-Wilson on the field, a journeyman who’s allowed a 112.8 QB Rating in his coverage over the course of his career. He is not the solution to any problem. If there’s a matchup where Metcalf can break out, it’s probably this one. The question is: Will he be punished for his fumble last week? Consider him a risk/reward WR3/4 option this week.
Jaron Brown: He’s still splitting snaps with David Moore and Malik Turner, but Brown is the one seeing semi-consistent targets. He’s totaled 24 targets over the last five games, which is more than enough to be relevant with Wilson at quarterback. The Falcons have also allowed four wide receivers to finish with 10-plus PPR points despite seeing four or less targets. If Metcalf is punished for his fumble in Week 7, we could see Brown as the one who benefits. If you’re looking for a hail mary option, Brown isn’t a bad option who’s available almost everywhere.
Julio Jones: It’s tough to project Jones without knowing who will be under center, but Schaub has played with one of the best receivers in the game before (Andre Johnson) and he peppered him with targets. Jones lines up primarily on the left side of the formation, which is where Tre Flowers is at, the Seahawks weakest link in the secondary. He’s allowing a 64.1 percent catch-rate and 13.0 yards per reception in his coverage, and despite playing a zone-heavy scheme, he’s allowed two touchdowns directly in his coverage. There have been three wide receivers who’ve been able to hit the century-mark against the Seahawks this year, and knowing Ridley has the tougher matchup with Shaquill Griffin, Jones might be the fourth one to hit that mark. With the uncertainty of Ryan’s knee and Schaub’s absence from the game, Jones is impossible to play in cash lineups, but he should remain in season-long lineups as a high-floor WR1.
Calvin Ridley: Another week has gone by and another week Ridley saw exactly six targets. That appears to be his sweet spot, as he’s finished with six targets in 4-of-7 games. There have been three games in which Ridley finished as a top-24 option this year and those games were against the Eagles, Texans, and Cardinals. Each of those teams rank in the bottom-half of the league against receivers, so we want to pay attention to that moving forward. The Seahawks rank as the 10th-best team against receivers, so it hasn’t been a very appealing matchup for them, but it is important to note they’ve had somewhat of a soft schedule. There have also been just seven wide receivers who’ve finished with more than five targets against them. Of those seven receivers, the worst game was Robert Woods‘ five catches for 48 yards, though that was still worth a top-36 performance. Ridley does get the tougher matchup this week, as Shaquill Griffin is the cornerback he’ll see over half the time. He’s not unbeatable, but Jones’ matchup against Tre Flowers is one to attack. The added concern about the quarterback situation bumps Ridley down into the middling-to-low-end WR3 conversation.
TEs
Jacob Hollister: So, as it turns out, I was right about targets being available for the tight ends against the Ravens, but I was wrong when I thought it was Luke Willson. It was Hollister who ran 26 routes (10th-most among tight ends last week) and saw six targets, though it amounted to just three catches for 20 yards in an off day for Wilson. The Falcons aren’t a team to avoid at any position with the way they’ve been playing. They weren’t a matchup to target last year, as no tight end was able to total more than five receptions or 71 yards against them despite the massive struggles. This year has been different, as we’ve watched them allow six tight ends to finish as top-20 options, including Darren Fells, Zach Ertz, Gerald Everett, and Maxx Williams to finish as top-10 options. There are worse tournament plays than Hollister, as he has touchdown-upside in a matchup the Seahawks are projected for 28.5 points. In redraft leagues, he should be considered an upside TE2 who has just a small sample size, but a good one for his first real game action.
Austin Hooper: With the Falcons trading away Mohamed Sanu, Hooper’s target share isn’t going anywhere. That’s the middle of the field where he was dominating targets anyway but going from Sanu to Justin Hardy will mean more targets. The Seahawks are a plus-matchup for tight ends, too, though Mark Andrews failed to highlight last week when he dropped three passes. Despite that, the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. It hasn’t been just one big performance, either. We watched Vance McDonald catch 7-of-7 targets for 38 yards and two touchdowns, as well as Gerald Everett haul in 7-of-11 targets for 136 yards. The Seahawks are another zone-heavy defense, similar to the Colts, which is the team Hooper caught six balls for 66 yards and two touchdowns against back in Week 3. He’s in lineups as an elite TE1 and the matchup shouldn’t scare you off him.