The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2019 Fantasy Football)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 41.0
Line: LAC by 6.5

QBs
Devlin Hodges: Now that Ben Roethlisberger is out for the year and Mason Rudolph is considered doubtful, we’ll see Hodges under center for the Steelers on Sunday night football. He’s an undrafted rookie quarterback who didn’t make the initial 53-man roster. He came in relief last week, completing 7-of-9 passes for 68 yards against the Ravens, which will make many wonder if there’s anything here, but remember this isn’t the same Ravens defense, as they’d allowed three straight 300-yard games prior to that matchup. The Chargers aren’t the same defense, either, though they’ve still held three quarterbacks to 190 passing yards or less. The only quarterback who was able to post a top-15 quarterback performance against them was Deshaun Watson. Part of the issue is that the Chargers play such a slow-paced game and their opponents have averaged just 55.4 plays per game, which has led to just 27.0 pass attempts per game. Their defense has been extremely below-average on a per-target basis, but let’s not pretend Hodges will drop back and throw 40-plus times here. He can fill in for those with issues in 2QB formats but that’s about it.

Philip Rivers: It was the worst game I’ve seen Rivers play in quite some time. He constantly threw the ball up to chance and missed multiple defenders when throwing into double coverage. Then, once he had already started to struggle, he turned into Derek Carr, checking down all the time. His 4.4 yards per attempt was his worst since November 11, 2007. It’s a blip on the radar and nothing to be overly concerned about. The Steelers have held three quarterbacks to less than 12 fantasy points, but have allowed two quarterbacks to post 25-plus fantasy points. The first group is Lamar Jackson, Andy Dalton, and Jimmy Garoppolo. The second group is Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. Which do you see Rivers fitting in with? To be fair, the three bad performances have come since the Steelers acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, which has certainly helped the backend of their defense. With Fitzpatrick, they’ve allowed 6.81 yards per attempt. Without him, they allowed 9.35 yards per attempt. More bad news for Rivers is that despite already missing his starting left tackle, he may be without his starting center Mike Pouncey, who suffered a neck injury in their Week 5 loss. Knowing the Steelers allowed just two quarterbacks to throw for more than two touchdowns last year, which both came in the first three weeks, similar to what happened this year, combined with the fact that Rivers doesn’t offer anything on the ground, he’s just a middling-to-high-end QB2 with limited upside.

RBs
James Conner and Benny Snell: We found out that Jaylen Samuels will miss a month, which means Snell will get more work going forward. Why? Did you know Conner hasn’t topped 15 carries in each of his last 10 games? Or how about that he hasn’t topped 65 rushing yards that entire time? Crazy, right? The Steelers offense isn’t generating many scoring opportunities, limiting the appeal of last year’s No. 6 fantasy running back. Through five weeks, he’s the RB21 in points per game. The Chargers have been absolutely decimated by injuries and it’s led to them allowing 4.89 yards per carry on the year, though the three touchdowns they’ve allowed isn’t horrible. They may get Melvin Ingram back on the defensive line this week, though it’s no guarantee, as he’s healing from a hamstring injury. The most worrisome part of this game for Conner is the lack of plays available to the Steelers offense, as the Chargers have limited their opponents to just 55.4 plays per game, the second lowest in football. The only team that’s allowed less? The Ravens. Despite going to overtime, Conner totaled just 14 touches in that game as they ran just 51 plays. So, you’re looking for a touchdown to save the day from Conner, which puts him in the middling-to-low-end RB2 conversation with a fairly low floor for a “workhorse” back. Snell shouldn’t see more than 3-5 touches and isn’t a fantasy option.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: The Chargers said they’d ease Gordon into the offense, but what they meant was that they’ll ease him back into the passing game. He totaled 12 of the 15 carries available between the two, though Ekeler saw 16 targets to Gordon’s six targets. In reality, Gordon’s 18 combined carries/targets is pretty solid for someone they wanted to ease back in. It also won’t hurt his case that Ekeler fumbled the ball into the end zone, giving the Broncos the ball on their own 25-yard line. This is the third time Ekeler has fumbled at/near the goal-line this year (even if one was in the preseason). The Steelers secondary has picked up their game as of late, and their run defense has been solid all year, as they’ve yet to allow a running back reach 80 yards on the ground. We’ve watched five different running backs tally 12.9 to 13.8 PPR points and finish RB17-RB23 but none have topped that. They have also seen at least 26 carries against them in 4-of-5 games, so it’s not due to a lack of trying. Seeing their 3.95 yards per carry and just 1.29 PPR points per target to running backs, this isn’t a premier matchup. We are still looking at a team that’s at home as six-plus point favorites, so he does get a nudge there. Consider Gordon a high-end RB2 who will get the goal-line work. Ekeler can still be played as a high-end RB3 and the best way I can describe his role in this offense is that he’s the Chargers version of James White, though he’ll get a few additional carries. This is not a great matchup, though.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Poor JuJu… he’s now down to the third-string quarterback, and you can even argue he’s fourth-string considering they traded Josh Dobbs who was originally the backup to Roethlisberger. He’s totaled just 18 targets over the last three weeks combined, so it’s not as if he’s seeing crazy-high volume to carry through. He’s also totaled 171 yards in those three games, but 113 of them have come after the catch. That cannot be sustained. Many will wonder if Casey Hayward will shadow Smith-Schuster, but Hayward doesn’t travel into the slot, which is where Smith-Schuster plays about 60 percent of the time. Desmond King is the cornerback who covers the slot for them and after having a true breakout season in 2018, he’s struggled a bit to open 2019. Of the 13 balls thrown his way, just two have hit the ground and two of them have gone for touchdowns. The lack of talent in the secondary behind him (they’re without both starting safeties) has clearly had an impact on his performance. You’ll have Smith-Schuster in lineups as a middling WR2 and hope that Hodges is competent.

Diontae Johnson: Since his promotion into the starting lineup, he’s totaled a team-high 20 targets. They’ve led to 14/156/2 and he actually has 0.1 more fantasy points than Smith-Schuster in that time. The bad news is that it’ll likely lead to him being covered by Casey Hayward in this game, the Chargers only starting-caliber cornerback on the perimeter. While there’s no guarantee the Chargers view Johnson as that much of a threat, it’s hard to see them waste Hayward on anyone else, especially when we know that James Washington will miss this game. Johnson certainly can’t be ignored with his target share, but he likely has the toughest matchup on the field with a third-string quarterback. He’s nothing more than a mediocre WR4 option.

Keenan Allen: You can’t say I didn’t warn you about Allen last week, though Rivers playing horrifically had an even bigger impact than the matchup. Allen has just 66 yards over the last two weeks combined, but if there’s a matchup to get right, it’s this one. The Steelers have struggled to contain receivers over the middle of the field, as we’ve watched Tyler Lockett tag them for 10/79/0, Julian Edelman for 6/83/0, and Willie Snead for 4/51/0. While Phillip Dorsett isn’t a slot-heavy receiver, both of his touchdowns against the Steelers came while he was lined up in the slot. Mike Hilton is their primary slot cornerback who has allowed 1.76 yards per covered slot snap, which ranks as the seventh-most among 53 defenders who’ve been in the slot for at least 25 percent of their snaps. Last year, he allowed the 13th-most, so it’s not a fluke. Allen will be a favorite of Rivers this week and he should make his way back into WR1 territory.

Mike Williams: It was a scary sight seeing Williams laying on the sideline after taking a hard fall, but he was able to return to the game without missing much time. He was targeted a career-high 13 times against the Broncos, though it didn’t lead to the monster game you’d hope. In fact, both of Rivers’ interceptions in that game were on targets to Williams. Now, he’ll see a much tougher matchup with Joe Haden in coverage. Many will tie Haden to Allen, but he doesn’t travel into the slot. Haden has been huge for the Steelers, as he’s allowed just a 60.9 percent catch-rate and five touchdowns over the last 115 targets he’s seen in coverage. He is just 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds, so it’s not to say Williams can’t jump over him and snag a touchdown, but the numbers would indicate the odds are unlikely. Williams should be considered a touchdown-dependent WR4 for this game.

TEs
Vance McDonald: In his return to the lineup last week, he played 35 snaps while Nick Vannett was in on 30 snaps. McDonald saw three of the four targets available, catching all of them for 34 yards. Not knowing much about Hodges, it’s tough to lean on McDonald, who’s been a bit of a guessing game himself. His target totals this year have been 4-7-2-3, not exactly constant, though the seven-target game looks like an outlier. He’s also yet to top 40 yards in a game. The Chargers are down to playing backup safeties, though it hasn’t mattered too much. Outside of an odd game against the Texans where they allowed the combination of Jordan Akins and Darren Fells eight catches for 122 yards and three touchdowns, they haven’t allowed a starting tight end more than one catch against them. It helps to know that James Washington is out, which will create a few more opportunities, but McDonald is still a shaky TE2.

Virgil Green: He returned to the lineup in Week 5, though it led to more mediocrity. He’s still yet to top two targets or nine yards in a game this year, so you’re not considering him as a streamer. Despite playing against Will Dissly, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews over the last four weeks, the Steelers haven’t allowed any tight end to top 57 yards against them. Sure, Dissly snagged two touchdowns, but it’s always best to follow targets (Green doesn’t get them) and yards per target (Steelers allow 6.49 yards per target, 8th-lowest mark in the league) with tight ends. Green isn’t in the streaming conversation. *Update* So, Hunter Henry is apparently questionable for this game after getting in a full practice on Friday. It didn’t seem likely he’d play, but if he does, he’s probably better than all but eight tight ends even in a tough matchup. 

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Total: 47.0
Line: GB by 4.5

QBs
Matthew Stafford: If the Lions don’t have to throw the ball a lot, they won’t. Stafford has been held to 34 pass attempts or less in 3-of-4 games, with the only exception being Week 1 when they went into Arizona and played five full quarters. Now onto the Packers who may be without safety Darnell Savage, who was in a walking boot on Tuesday. Dak Prescott was the first quarterback to total more than 7.3 yards per attempt and pass for more than 230 yards against them, though he was also just the second quarterback to throw the ball more than 32 times. After holding the first three quarterbacks to QB28 or worse (really), they’ve allowed both Carson Wentz and Prescott to finish as top-10 options in Weeks 4 and 5. Their front-seven has done a great job pressuring the opposing quarterback, as they’ve generated pressure on at least 35 percent of dropbacks in every game. Stafford himself has been pressured on 37 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks 16th among the 37 quarterbacks who’ve played at least one-quarter of the snaps. I could tell you that Stafford has played well against the Packers the last few years, but it may not mean much to a defense with a lot of new personnel. It is Mike Pettine’s second year as the coach, so looking at last year’s matchups, Stafford finished as the QB18 and QB13 while averaging just 29.0 pass attempts. Knowing the Packers are improved, it leaves Stafford in the middling QB2 conversation.

Aaron Rodgers: He didn’t have to do much with the run-game stomping all over the Cowboys, but this has been a trend with the Packers in 2019. Rodgers has thrown for more than 238 yards just once and has yet to throw more than two touchdowns. His center, Corey Linsley, suffered a concussion in their Week 5 win over the Cowboys as well, so that’s something we need to pay attention to as the week goes on. The Lions defense allowed two touchdowns apiece to Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz but allowed no passing touchdowns to Philip Rivers and Patrick Mahomes. Sometimes, things just don’t make sense. What was the common denominator? The games against Rivers and Mahomes were at home, while the games against Murray and Wentz were on the road. No matter which way you slice it, the Lions have been very good through four games, allowing just a 55.4 percent completion-rate and a 2.38 percent touchdown-rate despite playing some of the best quarterbacks in the league. Meanwhile, Rodgers’ 3.33-percent touchdown-rate is the lowest of his entire career. Rodgers only played one of the games against the Lions last year under Matt Patricia (played just one series in Week 17), and in that game, he threw for 442 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions are obviously running the same scheme, though Rodgers isn’t running the same offense. Until we see him unleashed with a healthy receiver corps around him, Rodgers is just a low-end QB1.

RBs
Kerryon Johnson and J.D. McKissic: Since releasing C.J. Anderson, Johnson has received 49 of the Lions 64 running back touches, which amounts to 75 percent. That’s workhorse territory. Now going against the Packers, who have already allowed three running backs to post top-three numbers against them. Those running backs were Dalvin Cook, Jordan Howard, and Phillip Lindsay, so it’s not as if they were top-five fantasy picks or anything. For whatever reason, the Cowboys decided to start the game throwing the ball, which led to a turnover, which led to gamescript going bad, which led to them handing Ezekiel Elliott the ball just 12 times. The Lions cannot make that mistake going into Green Bay and need to stick with the run. Knowing the Lions running backs have touched the ball 32, 28, 27, and 37 times through four games, it shouldn’t be a problem. The 5.27 yards per carry they’ve allowed ranks as the third-most in the league, so provided nothing changed with his workload over the bye week, Johnson should be played as a solid RB1 this week. McKissic appears to have stolen the backup job from Ty Johnson, as McKissic totaled six carries/targets versus the Chiefs while Johnson tallied four of them. Neither should be considered for fantasy, but it’s noteworthy for those who thought Johnson was the handcuff.

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: For those who wondered why I wanted Jones in a workhorse role and complained about Williams being part of a full-blown timeshare, you saw the reason in Week 5 when Jones tallied 182 total yards and four touchdowns, something Williams is incapable of doing. The Lions were among the best run defenses in football over the second half of 2018 but haven’t been a shutdown unit in 2019, allowing 4.26 yards per carry, 9.0 yards per running back target, and a touchdown every 17.6 carries through four games. There have been five running backs who’ve totaled at least 53 yards on the ground against them, but none with more than 82 yards, as they’ve faced just 22.0 carries per game, which is not a whole lot when you factor in a timeshare. Does Matt LaFleur learn from last week’s game, or does he insist on giving Williams half the work? Knowing the Lions have allowed 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game, combined with the fact that Jones leads the league with eight rushing touchdowns, he is locked into lineups as a RB1, but his floor isn’t as high as some of the workhorses around the league if Williams returns from his concussion, as he’ll get work, it’s just a matter of how much.

WRs
Kenny Golladay: His targets have been much more consistent this year (9-10-8-9), meaning he’s much more reliable on a week-to-week basis. Oddly enough, the worst game he had was against the Eagles secondary. His 26 percent target share ranks as the eighth-highest mark in the league. He’s going to see a lot of Jaire Alexander, one would guess. There’s a possibility that the Packers choose to play sides, though, as Marvin Jones is no walk in the park. Alexander has allowed just a 48.7 percent catch-rate in his coverage this year, one of the best marks in the league. Granted, Amari Cooper made him look silly last week, but Cooper is legitimately a top-five route-runner in the league. Golladay is one of the better contested-catch receivers, so they’re very different. Still, we’ve seen seven wide receivers who’ve totaled at least seven targets against the Packers, and all of them have finished with at least 11.9 PPR points. Golladay should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 with his target share, though his ceiling may be capped a bit.

Marvin Jones: The matchup against the Packers has suited Jones well over the years. Even though they’re a different team with different personnel, look at the ridiculous numbers Jones has put up against them the last few years.

Now that I’ve gotten your hopes up, the weakest performance of the bunch came against the Mike Pettine defense that was installed last year. If the Packers decide to shadow Golladay with Jaire Alexander, Jones would have the better matchup against Kevin King, but if they choose to simply play sides, Jones would see more of Alexander than Golladay. With Jones’ targets a lot more volatile than Golladay’s, he’s down in the high-end WR4 conversation as someone who’d benefit from Golladay getting No. 1 treatment, though that’s far from guaranteed.

Danny Amendola: Of the top seven wide receiver performances the Packers have allowed this year, none of them have gone to slot receivers. In fact, they haven’t allowed a slot-heavy receiver more than three catches in a game. Veteran safety/cornerback Tramon Williams has faced just 10 targets in the slot, allowing four receptions for 78 scoreless yards. This isn’t a matchup to target Amendola, who is still a question mark after missing Week 4 with a chest injury.

Davante Adams: It’s going to be tough to gauge Adams’ availability for this Monday night game, as he’s unlikely to practice very much due to his veteran status. Unless you have one of the other Packers wide receivers, it’s going to be a risk/reward scenario. If you are set on playing him, ensure you have someone else playing in this game that can replace him in the starting lineup. He’d be shadowed by Darius Slay if he does play, one of the better cornerbacks in the league, though Adams got the best of him last year when he tallied 9/140/1 in their Week 5 matchup. When Adams plays, he’s in your lineup, plain and simple. I’ll try to post an update by Saturday to let you know which way he’s trending. If you’re wondering which Packers wide receiver got a huge bump in snaps with him out, it was Jake Kumerow. *Update* Adams was interviewed on Thursday and he sounded non-committal about playing anytime soon, meaning he’s likely out for this game. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: It was always going to be a tough matchup for Valdes-Scantling last week, as his speed would be kept at bay by the Cowboys, but one catch for 18 yards as the top option in the offense is pretty bad. If Adams plays, the Lions would have Darius Slay on him, which means they’d stick Rashaan Melvin on Valdes-Scantling’s side. Melvin has done a great job in coverage this year, limiting quarterbacks to a 70.4 QB Rating in his coverage. He’s allowed just a 44.4 percent catch-rate, though the receptions he does allow typically go for quite a bit of yards. His 16.9 yards per reception allowed ranks as the fifth-most among cornerbacks who’ve seen at least 20 targets in coverage. It was a problem of his last year, too, as he allowed 15.4 yards per reception with the Raiders. Provided Adams plays, Valdes-Scantling should be in lineups as a solid WR3 option, as he’d benefit from his presence. Even if Adams sits it out, the Lions wouldn’t shadow Valdes-Scantling, though he’d see a mix of Melvin and Slay, making him a low-end WR3 with a lower floor.

Geronimo Allison: Even with Adams out of the lineup last week, it didn’t change Allison’s role, as he ran 62 percent of his routes in the slot. That means he’ll be seeing a lot of Justin Coleman, who’s been hit-or-miss in his first season with the Lions. He was absolutely great in the Week 4 game against the Chiefs, as he broke up a should-be touchdown catch by Sammy Watkins, knocking the ball out of his grip before he could take a step. The good news for Allison, however, is that the top three performances the Lions have allowed to receivers this year have been slot-heavy receivers. Larry Fitzgerald, Nelson Agholor, and Keenan Allen all recorded eight receptions and at least 17.8 PPR points, though it’s also important to note they all saw at least 12 targets, while Allison’s yet to see more than six targets this year. I don’t believe it’s a great matchup, though it’s not horrible, either. Allison should be considered a high-end WR4 who would benefit from Adams being out, as it would likely raise his target floor.

TEs
T.J. Hockenson: We don’t know if Hockenson will be cleared from the concussion protocol in time to play this game, as he suffered a nasty fall in Week 4. We should have more information by Saturday (I’ll update his notes). The matchup with the Packers is not a good one, as Zach Ertz is the only tight end who’s surpassed 37 yards or three catches against them. Even Ertz was held to the TE7 performance in his game against them. Going back to last year, the Packers ranked as the 13th-best team against tight ends under Mike Pettine, so we do have a trend. We can’t pretend Hockenson was a staple in fantasy lineups, either. After his massive Week 1 performance, he totaled just two catches for eight yards in the next two games combined. Knowing there aren’t many good tight end options out there, he’s in the high-end TE2 conversation this week, but it’s not a good matchup.

Jimmy Graham: Since Rodgers said he wanted to get Graham more involved, he’s totaled 12 targets that have amounted to 9/102/1 the last two weeks, so he’s definitely in the conversation as a fantasy play every week. The Lions have played two games against great tight ends and two games against ones who are essentially non-existent. Travis Kelce posted 7/85/0 on eight targets while Zach Ertz tallied 4/64/0 on seven targets. With everything added up, they’ve allowed 10.05 yards per target to tight ends, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. It’s a really small sample size, but knowing the Lions defense was very mediocre last year (15th against tight ends), Patricia’s defense isn’t the scheme that completely shuts down the tight end position. In fact, Graham posted one of the best games of his 2018 season against them when he caught six passes for 76 yards in their Week 5 matchup. Knowing how dire things are at the position, Graham should be considered a somewhat stable TE1 this week.

New York Giants at New England Patriots

Total: 46.0
Line: NE by 14.5

*UPDATE* The weather is not supposed to be good for this game. Good chance of rain along with wind gusts over 30 MPH. This slightly downgrades both passing games and upgrades those running the ball. 

QBs
Daniel Jones: After his great debut, we’ve seen some up-and-down out of Jones, which should be expected out of a rookie who was asked to start in the third week of the season. We shouldn’t have expected much out of the matchup against the Vikings, though it didn’t look at that much different than the matchup against the Redskins. Now he has to go against the hottest defense in football… against the defending Super Bowl champs… on the road… on national television… without his top three offensive skill-position players. This is what we call a nightmare situation for a rookie. Through five games, the Patriots have still yet to allow a single passing touchdown. No other team in the league has allowed less than three of them. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions, too, so it’s not just limiting touchdowns. They’ve allowed just 5.36 yards per attempt, which is the lowest in the NFL. Across the board, they’ve simply been dominant. The best finish against them has been the QB23, and that required a rushing touchdown by Josh Allen. Just say no to quarterbacks against the Patriots, especially rookie ones.

Tom Brady: Through five games, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 155-34. Despite that, Brady has averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game, including 42 against a helpless Redskins defense last week. Now onto play the Giants, who’ve allowed at least 28 points in 4-of-5 games? I’ve dubbed them “Dolphins-lite,” though many wanted to dismiss that after they “shut down” the Redskins offense. The only quarterback who averaged less than 8.4 yards per attempt against them was Dwayne Haskins, so it’s not just volume, and it’s not just touchdowns. In fact, three quarterbacks have averaged double-digit yards per attempt. Outside of the Redskins game, every quarterback has scored at least 20.5 fantasy points and finished as a top-10 quarterback against them. The Giants also haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last three games, including Dalvin Cook last week. The way to beat this team is to attack the secondary, and knowing Brady’s getting plenty of attempts in blowouts, this could be another 300-yard, two-plus touchdown game. He should be in lineups as a rock-solid QB1. Fun fact: Of the seven wide receiver touchdowns the Patriots wide receivers have, six of them have come in the slot. The Giants secondary has allowed 22 receptions for 317 yards and three touchdowns on 29 slot targets this year.

RBs
Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Hilliman: As of now, it appears Barkley will not play on Thursday night. After Wayne Gallman suffered a concussion in their Week 5 loss, it’s likely to be Hilliman as the Giants starting running back, and there’s no way you want to start Hilliman. It’s a brutal matchup he’s walking into, as the Patriots have now held 4-of-5 teams of running backs to 12.1 or less PPR points. To explain just how ridiculous that is, the best defense in the league against running backs last year allowed 17.8 PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Even Le’Veon Bell, who did total 22 touches against them, had it lead to just 63 scoreless yards and an RB31 finish. The reality is that the Patriots have allowed just 3.34 yards per carry on the season, the gamescript is definitely going to go in the wrong direction, and they’ve also held running backs to just 5.72 yards per target in the passing game. There were just two running backs who totaled 20-plus PPR points against the Patriots last year, and both of those running backs scored those 20 points through the air. You don’t want to play a Giants running back in this game.

Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: After seeing Burkhead finish Week 4 with one touch and then being ruled out days before the Week 5 game, we have to assume he’s going to be a non-factor for the foreseeable future. Because of that, Michel saw a career-high three targets last week, catching all of them for 32 yards. If they start using him in the passing game, it’ll raise his weekly floor and not make him as touchdown dependent. You shouldn’t take this as the norm after just one week, though it is a step in the right direction. The Giants have allowed 28 or more points in 4-of-5 games this year, but they’ve oddly allowed just one running back to top 80 yards on the ground against them, and that was Dalvin Cook, who’s been terrorizing everyone he encounters. With that being said, there’s been just one game they haven’t allowed a top-22 running back, and that was against the Redskins in Week 4, who rarely have a top-30 performance on their roster. The reason to like Michel so much is due to the fact that he’s the primary goal-line back for a team that’s at home and favored by more than two touchdowns. The Patriots have handed the ball to running backs 18 times inside the 10-yard-line over the first five games, and Michel has received 13 of them. He’s also received at least 17 touches in 4-of-5 games, which presents a fairly-high floor, so consider him a rock-solid RB2 this week who might score multiple touchdowns. White has now seen 19 targets over the last two weeks with Burkhead a non-factor and that’s likely to be the case again this week. The Giants have only seen 25 running back targets over the course of five games, but they’ve allowed 10.16 yards per target on them, which ranks as the most in the NFL. It surely doesn’t help that they lost starting linebacker Ryan Connelly to a torn ACL during their Week 4 game and were without Alec Ogletree the last two weeks. White is getting wide receiver targets and is also being given a few carries here and there, making him a very safe low-end RB2/high-end RB3 who plays for a team that’s projected to score more than 30 points. Some will say it’s a Michel week (and it could be), but knowing Brady has averaged 37-plus attempts while blowing out 4-of-5 teams, White is somewhat gamescript-proof.

WRs
Sterling Shepard (OUT): He’s not going to play this week, but I wanted to share thoughts on him about his role moving forward. Our worst fears were realized with Tate in the lineup, as Shepard ran a season-low 29.7 percent of his snaps from the slot. Over the first month, he’d averaged 79.5 percent of his routes there, which is very significant. Why? Because of the 66 wide receivers who totaled at least 40 targets in each of the last two seasons, Shepard ranked 49th in efficiency on the perimeter. Over the course of his three-plus-year career, he’s still yet to score a touchdown on the perimeter (all 15 have come from the slot). It wasn’t surprising to see him finish with just 49 yards on his 10 targets last week, though it was a tough matchup.

Darius Slayton: He’s the No. 1 receiver by default with Shepard and Engram out, though it’s no prize against the Patriots. They have yet to allow a passing touchdown, so it would require consistent targets and receptions to be usable in fantasy. They’ve allowed just three top-36 wide receiver performances on the year, with two of them going to slot-heavy receivers, and the other going to John Brown, who saw 11 targets. In the two games Slayton has received five targets, he has produced 3/82/0 and 4/62/1, so you’re simply rooting for more volume. With Barkley, Shepard, and Engram out, we should see six-plus targets for Slayton, which does put him on the WR4 radar with a decent floor, but he’s not someone you absolutely must play.

Golden Tate: He only secured three balls for 13 yards in his Giants debut, though is six targets are promising. Another positive comes from the fact that he’s going to occupy the slot role for the Giants while Shepard moves to the perimeter. That’ll create higher-percentage throws for Jones over the middle of the field with a much shorter average depth of target. The issue is that he’s had no time to build chemistry with Jones while Shepard and Engram have been with him for a few weeks. Now that they’ve both been ruled out, it’s time to build that chemistry. There really isn’t a great matchup for wide receivers against the Patriots, as not one has finished better than the WR20 against them. The good news for Tate is that of the top two games they allowed to wide receivers, they were both slot-heavy receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster totaled 6/78/0 on eight targets, while Cole Beasley totaled 7/75/0 on 12 targets. No wide receiver (or tight end) has managed to find the end zone against the Patriots, which essentially means you need a receiver who’s locked into a lot of receptions and/or yards to feel confident starting them. It’s tough to trust Tate as anything more than a low-end WR3 but he should be peppered with targets in this game and offer a stable fantasy floor, particularly in PPR formats.

Josh Gordon: He hasn’t lived up to his reputation, but it may be one of the best times to buy-low on the Patriots receiver. His 35 targets are just six behind Edelman, who just happens to have two touchdowns. Heck, even Dorsett, who has 12 fewer targets than Gordon has three touchdowns. It’s only a matter of time before those touchdowns shift to the biggest Patriots wide receiver. That can start against the Giants, who’ve already allowed 1,052 yards and eight touchdowns to wide receivers. Guys, we’ve played five games. The Jaguars secondary allowed seven wide receiver touchdowns all of last season. It’s not even due to an insane amount of volume, as they’ve defended 93 wide receiver targets to this point, which is right around the league average. The 11.31 yards per target is easily the most in the NFL – yes even more than the Dolphins 10.44 yards per target. Some will worry about whether or not Janoris Jenkins will shadow him, though that’s not even much of a concern, as Jenkins has already allowed three touchdowns on just 32 targets in coverage this year. Having seen at least seven targets in each of the last three games, Gordon should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 who can blow up at any point.

Julian Edelman: It’s fair to say Edelman’s now 100 percent, right? While his efficiency was certainly down against the Bills, he popped off for 110 yards and a touchdown against the weak Redskins secondary. It was a great matchup, but Week 6 is a similar story, as the Giants have struggled to defend slot-heavy receivers. Grant Haley handles most of those duties for them, and on 17 targets in the slot, he’s allowed 14 receptions for 184 yards and a touchdown. The Giants team as a whole have faced 29 targets, allowing 22 receptions for 317 yards and three touchdowns, so it’s clearly a problem with the spot on the field as a whole. Knowing that Edelman runs more slot routes than anyone, he’s the best bet for production on the Patriots, making him a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 in this Thursday night game.

Jakobi Meyers: Knowing that Phillip Dorsett‘s injury is a hamstring and that this game is taking place on Thursday, we’re likely to see Meyers enter the starting lineup against the Giants. Meyers played 35-of-77 snaps last week in relief of Dorsett, while no other receiver outside of Gordon/Edelman saw the field. For those unfamiliar with Meyers, he was a preseason all-star this year, totaling 20 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns on 28 targets. Should something happen to Edelman, he’d have plenty of fantasy relevance. With Dorsett out, he doesn’t have as much appeal, though he should still be on the radar, as he ran 45 percent of his routes from the slot in Dorsett’s relief. Here’s a fun fact that most won’t know. All three of Dorsett’s touchdowns this year have come from when he was in the slot. Meyers should be a popular waiver wire add this week and rightfully so with this matchup on tap. Knowing the Giants struggle with slot targets, Meyers can provide emergency WR5 spot-startability.

TEs
Evan Engram (OUT) and Rhett Ellison: The great news is that Engram has 26 targets over the three starts with Daniel Jones. The bad news is that he’s trended in the wrong direction over the last two games, finishing with less than 55 yards in each contest while failing to score a touchdown. Still, you must follow the targets at the tight end position. The Patriots have not been a giving team to any fantasy skill-position player and that includes tight ends, though the competition has been weak through five games. They’ve played Vance McDonald, Mike Gesicki, Ryan Griffin, Dawson Knox, and Jeremy Sprinkle, so take the small sample size of tight ends as you wish. The Patriots did allow eight tight ends to finish with 11-plus PPR points against them last year, which included a 31.5-point performance to Eric Ebron on Thursday night football. It took 15 targets to get there but that’s a number that’s possible with Shepard and Barkley out of the lineup. There was just one other tight end who saw double-digit targets against the Patriots last year (Trey Burton), and even he was able to post 9/126/1. If you wanted to bet on one Giants player posting top-five results, it’s Engram. Plug him in as a rock-solid TE1 this week. *Update* Engram is out with a knee injury, which means Rhett Ellison will step into his role. Since the start of 2018, there have been six games where Ellison has seen three or more targets. In those games, he’s averaged 3.2 receptions for 38.0 yards and scored one touchdown. In a week that’s brutal for tight ends, Ellison should see at least five targets here making him a high-end TE2.

Matt LaCosse: While it was Ryan Izzo getting the glory of a touchdown last week, it was LaCosse as the clear-cut winner. He ran 42 pass routes compared to just seven to Izzo, meaning he’ll be the one to bet on for production most of the time. Do you want to bet on one of them, though? They’ve combined for just 11 targets this year (though LaCosse did miss two games), and Izzo’s touchdown in Week 5 was the first between them. The Giants haven’t been all that giving to tight ends this year, either, as wide receivers have dictated a lot of the scoring. The 57.1 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed to tight ends is among the best in football, so seeing the combination of LaCosse/Izzo average just 2.2 targets per game, we have a problem. Does the shortage at wide receiver make them a bit more viable? Sure, but LaCosse is nothing more than an emergency TE2.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.