Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 52.0
Line: ATL by 1.5

QBs
Matt Ryan: It’s like we hit the rewind button and we’re back in the 2018 season with Ryan and the Falcons defense. Despite Jared Goff having a 68-attempt game, Ryan is tied with him for the league-lead with 222 pass attempts through five games. It puts him on pace for 710 pass attempts, which would obviously be more than the 608 attempts he threw in 2018. The good news? He’s completing 70.3 percent of passes. The bad news? He’s thrown 11 touchdowns with seven interceptions. But any time you can get a quarterback who’s averaging 44-plus pass attempts, you have to love it. The Cardinals opponents are also averaging 66.4 plays per game, which ranks as the eighth-most in football. They’re the only defense left who’s yet to intercept a pass. They’ve also allowed 12 passing touchdowns that have come at a 6.90 percent clip. The craziest part about the Cardinals? There’s just one quarterback who’s finished with less than 19 fantasy points against them, and it was the No. 1 quarterback in football, Russell Wilson, as he threw just one touchdown. The best part about Ryan is that his defense is going to allow points, which makes him somewhat gamescript-proof, as they’re never comfortable with a lead. The Falcons have a 25-point implied team total, and knowing how much their run-game has struggled, that indicates they’re expecting three passing scores out of Ryan. He’s an elite QB1 play this week and for the foreseeable future. He’s safe to use in cash games, too.

Kyler Murray: He’s thrown just four touchdowns on 201 pass attempts for a touchdown percentage that’s under two percent. By comparison, Mitch Trubisky‘s rate this year is 2.8 percent, Eli Manning‘s is 2.2 percent, and Luke Falk‘s is… okay, we’ve reached the point of going too far. His touchdown rate can really go up from here, yet he’s the No. 8 quarterback in fantasy football. Volume matters. Rushing matters. Playing the Falcons matters. The only team that’s allowed more fantasy points per game to the quarterback position is the Dolphins. The crazy part is that the Falcons have seen the eighth-fewest pass attempts against them. They’ve allowed a 7.74 percent touchdown-rate, which is the second-highest mark in football behind only the Dolphins. Are you sensing a trend here? Losing Keanu Neal has had a massive impact on the defense, as it did last year, and they’ve allowed both Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson to post their best games of the season over the last two weeks. The best part about this matchup is that the Falcons offense can keep pace with any offense they’re put against, which means you won’t see the Cardinals take their foot off the throttle. Because of that, Murray should be played as a borderline elite QB1 option in Week 6 who’s safe for cash games.

RBs
Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith: Similar to Matt Ryan, it seems like we’ve gone into a time-machine, only this time with Freeman, and it’s back to the time when Tevin Coleman was mixed in heavily. When Smith is active (and not limited), Freeman hasn’t topped 12 carries in a game. The good news is that he’s been seeing more and more targets, accumulating 14 of them over the last two weeks. The bad news? Smith ran exactly the same amount of pass routes (18) in Week 5. This is a 55/45 timeshare, it seems. The Cardinals defense has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year, though it’s not necessarily because they’re dominant against them, but rather due to the lack of touchdowns. They’ve allowed 4.45 yards per carry and 8.26 yards per target, which are both more than the league average, but they’ve allowed just two touchdowns to running backs, which ranks third in the league. It seems they’ve been getting slightly worse against the run, too. After holding both Kerryon Johnson and Mark Ingram to less than 50 yards, they’ve allowed each of the last three starting running backs at least 93 yards on the ground, including Joe Mixon last week. No running back has topped four receptions or 41 yards, but that’s got to be due to the fact that they’re so ill-equipped to handle wide receivers and tight ends. Knowing this is a full-blown timeshare is concerning for Freeman’s floor, though this game should produce a lot of points. The craziest part of it all? Smith has four carries inside the opponent’s five-yard-line while Freeman has one. Consider Freeman a middling RB3 while Smith is a high-end RB4.

David Johnson: Here’s a crazy stat: Johnson has seen eight-plus defenders in the box on just 1.6 percent of his carries, the lowest mark in the league. That’s likely the reason he’s averaging a robust 2.0 yards before contact despite his subpar offensive line. With Christian Kirk out last week, it meant more snaps at receiver for Johnson, but he suffered a back injury that could cause him to miss time. It allowed more snaps for his backup Chase Edmonds, who totaled 86 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals, taking some of the projected production for Johnson. The Falcons defense is not very good right now, but particularly their secondary. They’ve actually held each of the last four teams of running backs to less than four yards per carry which included the Eagles, Colts, Titans, and Texans running back groups. Dalvin Cook has been the only running back to finish as a top-12 option against them, so it’s not like we should expect to see Kliff Kingsbury’s offense dial back the pass attempts in this one. The Falcons defense has been horrendous against pass-catching running backs under Dan Quinn, so it’s odd to see them allow the absolute fewest fantasy points through the air to running backs through five games. It likely has to do with the weakened cornerback group and the ability to involve the receivers/tight ends more than ever. If Johnson plays, you stick him in your lineup as an RB1, though the back injury keeps him out of cash consideration. If Johnson sits, Edmonds becomes an interesting high-floor RB2 option in what’s supposed to be a high-scoring game. *Update* Johnson is considered a game-time decision for this game, which not only means he’s not guaranteed to play, but that he may be limited. Edmonds might have some RB4/flex appeal even if Johnson’s active. 

WRs
Julio Jones: Sound the bells, everyone. Jones has had two games with less than 10 PPR points, and it’s sent everyone into a massive panic. If we didn’t have a 116-game sample where he’s averaged an NFL-record 95.6 yards per game, I’d be more worried, but I’m not. We now get a bounce-back game against what might be the worst cornerback group in the league without Patrick Peterson. Their numbers overall are right around the league average, but when you look at the players who saw volume, you can see what I mean. Tyler Boyd saw 14 targets and turned them into 10/123/1. Danny Amendola saw 13 targets and turned them into 7/104/1. Marquise Brown saw 13 targets and finished with 8/86/0. We watched Auden Tate work out as a streamer last week, finishing with 3/26/1, though he should have had two touchdowns (dropped one). The cornerback duo of Byron Murphy and Tramaine Brock don’t have the tools equipped to handle Jones, so just keep plugging in your superstar receiver and expect big results. It’s a good thing the Falcons defense can’t stop anyone, as it’s led to Matt Ryan on pace for over 700 pass attempts. There are cheaper options you can find in cash, as well as options in a much less crowded offense, though I wouldn’t fault anyone for wanting to use him.

Calvin Ridley: It was only a matter of time before Ridley got back on the fantasy radar when Ryan is averaging over 44 pass attempts per game. Is it time for Jones’ bounce-back game this week? The Cardinals have shifted around their cornerbacks, though judging on what they did in Week 5, it’d be Tramaine Brock covering Ridley most of the time. Brock has been a better man-coverage cornerback throughout his career, but struggling in zone, which is coincidental because Ridley has been much better against man coverage. Ridley is the far better talent and should win in man coverage frequently. The question is whether there are better matchups for Ryan to target. Seeing Jones matched up with rookie Byron Murphy and Sanu matched up with safety Budda Baker, you can safely say he does. Ridley is the type of wide receiver who’s in a packed offense with a lot of top-notch pass-catchers, but you have to live through the ups and downs in his production, making him an ideal WR3 on fantasy teams with top-15 upside. We can’t pretend he hasn’t seen at least six targets in 4-of-5 games, either.

Mohamed Sanu: Another year is going by and another year everyone underappreciates Sanu. Did you know he’s been a top-32 wide receiver in each of the last three years? He’s the WR31 right now, was the WR31 last year, and was the WR29 in 2017. Crazy, right? He’s now scored double-digit PPR points in 4-of-5 games, and has a matchup with the Cardinals on deck, who’ve been traumatized by slot receivers and tight ends over the middle of the field. As a whole, the Cardinals have faced 48 slot targets (whether it be wide receiver, tight ends, or running backs). On those targets, they’ve allowed 36 receptions for 445 yards and six touchdowns. That’s a ridiculous 9.27 yards per target with a touchdown every eight targets. Here’s the breakdown of how many slot targets the Falcons pass-catchers have seen: Sanu 29, Hooper 17, Jones 9, Justin Hardy 3, Ridley 2. It might be another week where Sanu delivers WR3 numbers (if not better) for your fantasy squad. There are a lot of mouths to feed, but with the way Sanu’s been playing (three straight games with 13.7-plus PPR points), combined with the matchup, it’s hard to avoid him.

Larry Fitzgerald: With Christian Kirk out last week, the Cardinals wide receiver target distribution looked like this: Fitzgerald 8, KeeSean Johnson 7, Trent Sherfield 3, and Pharoh Cooper 2. Fitzgerald was the only one who totaled more than 33 yards against the Bengals, which doesn’t give you much confidence in the pass attack, but if there’s a team that can reinstill confidence, it’s the Falcons. Through five games, they’ve allowed a 77.5 percent completion-rate to wide receivers (highest in league), 11.07 yards per target (2nd-highest), and a touchdown every 8.9 targets (most frequent), which amounts to 2.56 PPR points per target, easily the most in the NFL. Only the Bucs have allowed more fantasy points to the position, though they’ve also seen 35 more targets. Fitzgerald should take advantage of Damontae Kazee, the safety who the Falcons have playing nickel cornerback. He’s allowed 10/142/1 on 13 targets in the slot this year. Knowing David Johnson may not be 100 percent even if he plays, Fitzgerald should be in the conversation for double-digit targets in this game. Consider him a stable WR2 who should absolutely be considered for cash games.

Christian Kirk/Damiere Byrd/KeeSean Johnson/Trent Sherfield: There is so much uncertainty with the injuries to the Cardinals wide receivers that writing this up before Friday/Saturday wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense. Kirk and Byrd didn’t practice last week but have a shot to return. Once we have more information, I’ll update this section later in the week. It is worth noting that the Falcons are going to be shorthanded at cornerback, as both Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson have been ruled out.

TEs
Austin Hooper: We’ve now seen Hooper post at least 13.6 PPR points in 4-of-5 games this year and he currently sits atop the fantasy tight end leaderboard. Now he gets to play the Cardinals? Whew. They have been the worst team in the league at defending tight ends and it hasn’t been close. They’ve already allowed four top-two performances to tight ends this year. They’ve played five games. While Eifert was the first one to not completely dominate the matchup, even he dropped a touchdown last year, which would have propped him into the top-12 tight ends for the week. I’m going to just post this chart for the Cardinals to show how bad they’ve been, and it’s the reason Hooper should be considered an elite TE1 who can be considered for cash lineups.

Charles Clay: We’ve had this conversation about Cardinals tight ends and how you don’t play them, right? Okay, cool. Glad we can skip over this section.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 49.5
Line: LAR by 3.5

QBs
Jimmy Garoppolo: With how dominant the 49ers defense has been, Garoppolo has averaged just 28.3 pass attempts per game. That’s not going to get it done for fantasy purposes, as he’s a quarterback who’s more likely to get you negative rushing yardage than anything positive (as he did in Week 5). His 6.2 percent touchdown-rate is actually very high and will come down, so to see him score more than 14.9 fantasy points just once, he’s not very attractive on a weekly basis. The Rams defense has looked horrendous the last two weeks, allowing the combination of Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to throw four touchdowns apiece. Winston was the QB1 of Week 4 while Wilson was the QB3 of Week 5. Prior to those two games, they’d allowed just one passing touchdown through three weeks, so what changed? Honestly, nothing. They did lose edge rusher Clay Matthews for 4-to-6 weeks during the Seahawks game, which will affect them going forward, though. Struggling for two games is certainly something that’ll pique our interest, but it doesn’t mean it’s the new norm. Knowing they’ve had 10 days to prepare for this game, we should approach Garoppolo with caution as a middling QB2 with limited upside. *Update* Not only will he be without his left tackle Joe Staley, but he’ll also be without right tackle Mike McGlinchey. While the Rams did lose Matthews, these are clearly the two biggest factors on the 49ers offensive line. One of the biggest benefits to Garoppolo, though, is that the Rams have declared they’ll be without cornerback Aqib Talib this week. Over the last eight games without him, the Rams defense has allowed a 65.7 percent completion-rate, 299.8 yards, and 2.88 passing touchdowns per game. 

Jared Goff: There were certainly some good throws out of Goff in Week 5, and it seemed like he got better at the game went on, though it’s getting to the point where he’s reliant on Cooper Kupp more than he’s ever been. Will the Seahawks game be the one that propels him forward? As mentioned last week, Goff has averaged just 1.08 passing touchdowns over his last 13 games, which pales to comparison to the 2.08 touchdowns per game he averaged in his first 26 games under Sean McVay. The 49ers pass-rush will not make life easy on him. They average a 40.1 percent pressure-rate on opposing quarterbacks, which is among the best in the league. Their opponents have also averaged just 56.8 plays per game, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in football. Due to that pressure, opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.1 percent of their passes, which is a league-low. They’ve intercepted at least one pass in every game and now rank second in the league with seven interceptions despite playing just four games. I’m not convinced Goff is over his woes and the 49ers defense has looked legit, making him nothing more than a high-end QB2 this week and far from a surefire producer.

RBs
Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert: We still have a timeshare with Coleman back in the lineup, though it’s likely we saw more Mostert than we typically will in a blowout win over the Browns. The 49ers running backs have combined for a ridiculous 754 yards on 134 carries (5.63 yards per carry) with six touchdowns on the ground through four games. Meanwhile, the Rams have faced 123 rushing attempts against them, which is the ninth-most in football. They haven’t been a defense you can simply run all over while allowing 4.04 yards per carry, but we have seen four top-20 performances against them, including the RB1 performance by Christian McCaffrey back in Week 1 (he does that to seemingly everyone nowadays). Dating back to the start of the 2018 season, the Rams have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in their last 21 games with another five touchdowns through the air to running backs, highlighting the fact they’re clearly not a must-avoid matchup or anything. This may be the first time the 49ers face a negative gamescript (Rams favored), which could cut back on some of the carries available to the timeshare. Still, Breida has seen between 11-15 carries in each game, regardless of gamescript. It seems like he’s the starter but he’s not going to be given a massive workload. Coleman played just one fewer snap than Breida and totaled five more carries, though he wasn’t targeted in the passing game. With Kyle Juszczyk likely out, you must wonder if it means more work for the running backs in the passing game. You also have to wonder if his loss will impact the efficiency of the run-game, as he’s one of the better run-blocking fullbacks. Breida should be considered a high-end RB3 with a limited ceiling, while Coleman should be treated as a middling RB3 who would benefit from positive gamescript. I’d avoid both running backs in cash game lineups. *Update* The 49ers run-game already took a hit with Juszcyzk, but are now going to be without both starting offensive tackles, too. Their efficiency is likely to suffer, though the Rams defense did lose Aqib Talib and that could have a butterfly effect on their entire defense. Still, the injuries to the 49ers’ top blockers don’t help. 

Todd Gurley: There’s some great news for Gurley owners, as his snap percentages continue to rise. Here are his percentages over the first five games: 70-63-73-75-93. He’s trending in the right direction, as he totaled 18 of the 19 touches for Rams running backs last week. He made the most of them, too, scoring two touchdowns. Now coming off 10 days rest, he’ll face the 49ers, who’ve been dominant in every way on defense. Through four games, they haven’t allowed a single running back to score more than 10.9 PPR points against them, which includes Nick Chubb, James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Ronald Jones. That’s impressive. Now, to be fair, Chubb and Jones both averaged over 5.4 yards per carry, but the play volume just hasn’t been there for the 49ers opponents, as they’ve averaged just 56.8 plays per game and 17.5 running back carries per game. Because of that, they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (13.2) to running backs. Even knowing that Gurley is moving back into his workhorse role, this is a brutal matchup for a running back whose best finish this season has been RB11. He should be in lineups as an RB2, but this matchup is far from ideal. *Update* Gurley is apparently dealing with a bruise on his thigh that could make him unavailable for this game. This news came out Wednesday, so it seems a bit premature to say he won’t play due to a bruise. Still, it’s something to monitor. If you own Gurley, you’ll ideally snag Malcolm Brown off the waiver wire (or already have him on your roster). If Gurley didn’t play, he’d see most of the work in this backfield, as rookie Darrell Henderson has played two snaps all season. Newest update: Gurley has been ruled doubtful and is very unlikely to play this week. Brown should be considered a stable RB2 this week, while Henderson is an emergency RB4/flex-type start, but he’s not someone you should start over another player who’s guaranteed 8-10 touches. 

WRs
Deebo Samuel: It appears we have a new way of looking at the 49ers wide receivers, as Samuel was leading the team in snaps the first three weeks, but coming out of the bye, we saw Pettis lead the bunch with 47 snaps, Goodwin with 46 snaps, and Samuel with 35 snaps. Was this a product of the blowout or are we finally getting what was expected. Knowing that Samuel will see a lot of Marcus Peters or Aqib Talib when he’s on the field, he’s not a great option anyway. You need to avoid him until we have a clearer picture.

Dante Pettis: In a surprising twist of events, Pettis played more snaps than any other 49ers wide receiver in Week 5. Through the first three games, he had played just 70 snaps total while Richie James played 85 snaps. After the bye, we saw Pettis fill the slot-heavy role on the team, which is massive for his outlook moving forward. Some will wonder if it was a product of the blowout and we need to keep an eye on that in a game like this one, but it’s clearly a good thing for Pettis. The matchup with the Rams isn’t great, as Nickell Robey-Coleman will be the one tasked with defending him, a cornerback who’s one of the better slot defenders in football. He’s allowed just 11-of-21 passing in his coverage this year and just a 82.0 QB Rating when targeted, which is similar to his last three years where that number has ranged from 74.8-84.5. Pettis should be stashed in fantasy leagues right now, but he’s not startable in this game.

Marquise Goodwin: If there’s one 49ers wide receiver who can be played with a small amount of confidence, it’s Goodwin. He’s played a full complement of snaps every week while the same cannot be said for any other receivers on the team. On top of that, the Rams, and particularly Marcus Peters, have been susceptible to the big play down the field. Over the last two weeks, the Rams have allowed both D.K. Metcalf and Mike Evans to get over the top of the defense, something that Goodwin can clearly do with low 4.3-second speed. The issue with trusting him as anything more than an upside WR4 is due to the fact that he’s yet to see more than four targets in a game this year. Granted, Garoppolo has averaged just 28.3 attempts, but the Rams opponents have averaged 34.6 attempts per game. Every quarterback not named Russell Wilson has totaled at least 30 pass attempts. He’s simply a “let’s chase a big play” WR4-type this week.

Brandin Cooks: We don’t know if he’ll be available for this game considering he suffered a concussion against the Seahawks, but knowing he has the extra three days to make it through the protocol helps. His targets have been unpredictable through five games, but he had managed to total at least 71 yards in three straight games prior to his concussion in Week 5. The 49ers play sides, so he’d be seeing the most of Ahkello Witherspoon‘s replacement Emmanuel Mosley in coverage. He played a great game on Monday night against the Browns, but he’s an undrafted free agent from last year who has played 91 career snaps. He is pretty quick for a cornerback, running a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, though he’s a bit stiff in his change-of-direction movements. They do run a lot of zone, so it’s not like he’ll be following Cooks in man all game, but if Cooks plays, I’m willing to bet on him as a WR2 versus an unexperienced cornerback. *Update* Cooks hasn’t been fully cleared at this point, though he’s reportedly close to it and is expected to play. 

Robert Woods: If there’s a receiver who’s paid the price with Goff struggling, it’s Woods. He’s now finished three of the last four games with less than 50 yards, something that happened just twice during the entire 2018 season. He’s still seen at least eight targets in 4-of-5 games, which means you have to remain patient. The increased role for Everett might be affecting his output more than anyone else’s though, as he’s not the field-stretcher Cooks is. His average depth of target is just 8.5 yards, while Kupp’s is right in that range at 7.4 yards, and Everett’s is at 6.4 yards. If we continue to see a shift to Everett, it would be at Woods’ expense. Woods will see a lot of Richard Sherman this week, the rejuvenated cornerback who’s allowed just 12-of-21 targets to be completed in his coverage for 124 yards and a touchdown. That’s just 5.9 yards per target and one of the better numbers out there. If there’s any concern about Sherman, it’s not keeping up with a speedy receiver, which Woods isn’t. He belongs in the WR3 conversation for the time being combined with the tougher matchup.

Cooper Kupp: He’s now the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football, which is not something many thought possible when Kupp tore his ACL in Week 10 of last season. With just 10 months recovery time, many wondered if he would be able to bounce back as quickly as he has. This has been the best five-game stretch of his career. He’s now seen at least nine targets in every game, including 12 or more in each of the last three games. Now on to play the 49ers and K’Waun Williams, who has been a stable presence in the slot over the last few years, though he’s not a shutdown cornerback by any means. With the 49ers playing a lot of zone, it allows receivers like Kupp to find the soft spots in coverage, similar to the way Tyler Boyd did in Week 2 against them when he caught all 10 of his targets for 122 yards. Revisiting last year, the 49ers allowed slot-heavy Larry Fitzgerald 8/102/1, Golden Tate 7/109/0, and Adam Thielen 6/102/0. Granted, their front-seven is bringing a lot of pressure and changing the matchup, but zone defenses allow for a lot of receptions, and Kupp has seen at least 12 targets in each of the last three games. He’s safe for cash lineups and should be locked into lineups as a WR1.

TEs
George Kittle: It was good to see Kittle get in on the scoring last week, as he’d already had multiple touchdowns taken away by penalty this year. Despite the 49ers averaging just 28.3 pass attempts per game, Kittle has totaled at least 54 yards in each game, and has seen at least eight targets in 3-of-4 games. His target share of 25 percent ranks as the third-most at the tight end position. His 28.0 percent market share of the air yards ranks No. 1 at tight end. The Rams haven’t been a matchup to attack or avoid this year, as they’ve been very mediocre. It was a similar case last year, though they did allow the 13th-most fantasy points thanks to seeing the second-most targets. Because of that, they were one of the eight teams that allowed 1,000-plus yards to tight ends. It just so happens that Kittle dominated them not once, but twice, totaling 8/98/1 in the first meeting, and then an even bigger 9/149/1 in the second meeting. Those performances were with C.J. Beathard (the first game) and Nick Mullens (the second game) under center, but it highlights the ability of Shanahan’s offense to attack the middle of their defense. Start Kittle as you normally would and if you have the cash to play for him in DFS, he’s probably going to be worth it. *Update* Kittle popped up on the injury report late in the week with a groin injury and is now considered questionable for this game. Knowing it’s an afternoon game, you need to have a backup plan secured. 

Gerald Everett: Despite Tyler Higbee returning to the lineup last week, Everett has amassed 19 targets over the last two games. Those targets have led to 12 receptions for 180 yards and a touchdown, which could lead to more of a permanent role in the offense. Here are his pass routes by week: 17, 21, 26, 38, 37. Clearly, something is changing in the offense and Everett is firmly planted on the fantasy radar. The 49ers are unfortunately not a team to attack, though. They’ve yet to allow a tight end more than 32 yards this year, and even going back to last season, there were just two tight ends who topped 46 yards against them. Both of those tight ends saw at least nine targets. While I’m definitely coming around to the idea of playing Everett on a more regular basis, this is not a great matchup, leaving him in the TE2 conversation.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Total: 39.0
Line: DEN by 2.5

QBs
Marcus Mariota: It seems Mariota has turned into more of a protect-the-ball game-manager-type quarterback, which is fine considering how good the defense has played. It’s worked well, as he’s yet to throw an interception on the season, but he’s also thrown one or zero touchdowns in 3-of-5 games, leaving fantasy owners wondering if he’s streamable. The first thing you want to check is the projected score, which currently sits under 40 points, which is not good. The Titans are projected for just 18.3 points, which is also not good as the fifth-lowest mark on the slate. The Broncos lost Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL in Week 4, though the ill-effects of that clearly didn’t show when they absolutely demolished Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, holding them to just 13 points. Despite not getting much pressure to the quarterback this year, the Broncos secondary has played better than anyone realizes, as they’ve allowed just four passing touchdowns through five games, which includes matchups with Aaron Rodgers, Gardner Minshew, and Rivers. Because of that, 4-of-5 quarterbacks have finished outside the top-20 quarterbacks for that week. They haven’t allowed a quarterback to rush for more than eight yards, either. This is not a week to be playing Mariota as a streamer.

Joe Flacco: After posting what was likely his best game of the year against the Jaguars in Week 4, Flacco threw just 20 passes in Week 5. In games the Broncos are able to run the ball, Flacco is going to wind up with sub-30 pass attempts. In the games they can’t, he’s averaged 39.7 pass attempts. Through five games, the Titans are not a team who’ll consistently be run on, so we could see this as a higher attempt game. Because the run defense has been so good, the Titans pass defense has allowed at least 17.5 fantasy points to each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played, with three of them totaling 32 or less pass attempts. I want to be clear, though. They aren’t a bad pass defense, as they’ve held every quarterback they’ve played to 7.50 or less yards per attempt, but they’ve been on the semi-high side of touchdown percentage, as their 4.42 percent is higher than the league average. And even though four quarterbacks have totaled at least 17.5 fantasy points, no quarterback has totaled more than 18.3 fantasy points. Odd, right? I’d say Flacco is startable in 2QB leagues and should have a higher floor than most think.

RBs
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: I’ve mentioned the fact that Henry might lose his passing-down snaps to Lewis after struggling a few weeks back. Well, here are his pass routes by week: 10-9-16-17-9. All in all, that amounts to 61 routes run, which ranks 41st among running backs. Meanwhile, Lewis has run 73 routes, which ranks 28th. We’ve also watched Henry’s targets dwindle, as he’s seen just three targets over the last three weeks. The Broncos run defense had a major hiccup against the Jaguars when they let Leonard Fournette walk in and rush for 225 yards, but outside of that game, they haven’t allowed a team of running backs to combine for more than 96 rushing yards, including the Chargers running backs last week. If there is someone comparable to Fournette, it’s Henry, as both backs require a bit of room to get going, but once they get rolling, it’s tough to stop them. The Broncos aren’t going to blow anybody out, meaning gamescript will remain neutral enough for Henry to get plenty of carries. He’s now seen at least 17 touches in every game, including 48 over the last two weeks combined. There have been four running backs to hit that many touches against the Broncos and all of them have finished as the RB17 or better. Henry should remain in lineups as a high-end RB2, though the loss of targets means he’s a no-go in cash. While Lewis is clearly getting more of a role, he’s totaled in-between 4-8 touches each game, not nearly enough to trust in fantasy, especially when he’s been rather inefficient when he does touch the ball.

Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: As I’ve mentioned before, this near 50/50 timeshare still favors Lindsay and he’s not going to lose that job unless he gives it up. After watching him run effectively all over the Chargers last week for 114 yards and a touchdown, he distanced himself a bit more. It’s also important to note that there’ve been seven carries for the Broncos inside the red zone and Lindsay has been the one in the game on six of them. Knowing he’s converted three of them for touchdowns, he’s not losing that role. The Titans have not allowed a running back more than 82 rushing yards against them this year, and that was Jordan Wilkins who essentially got that on one long run. Despite playing against Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, and Frank Gore, they’ve yet to allow a top-12 performance against them. Both of the rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed have gone to backups (Ito Smith, Dontrelle Hilliard). This is your reminder that it wasn’t great to play running backs against the Titans last year, either. There were just two running backs who finished better than the RB12 against them, so clearly, Mike Vrabel‘s defense hinders a team’s ability to run. Because of that, Lindsay is just a high-end RB3 and Freeman is a low-end RB3, and they cap each other’s upside.

WRs
Corey Davis: We’re now 31.3 percent through the fantasy season and Davis sits as the No. 61 wide receiver in fantasy football. Keep in mind that’s despite Mariota playing competent football. The Broncos as a whole haven’t allowed a combination of a team’s top-three wide receivers and a tight end to top 44.4 PPR points against them, including 35 points or less in 4-of-5 games. Think about that for a moment. The combination of Davis, Brown, Humphries, and Walker would score less than 45 PPR points combined, and likely less than 35 PPR points. Keep in mind they’ve played the pass-catcher groups of the Raiders, Bears, Packers, Jaguars, and Chargers. Davis may/may not see shadow coverage from Chris Harris Jr, as that’s what they’ve done in clear-cut No. 1 situations, though we don’t really know if Davis is viewed as such. If there is someone shadowed, it’d be Davis, meaning he needs to be kept out of fantasy lineups, as Harris is one of the best cornerbacks in football.

A.J. Brown: He’s now seen just five targets over the last two games, which is simply not enough to play him in fantasy. He actually scored a touchdown last week, but it was called back because Mariota had traveled past the line of scrimmage. The positive, however, is that Brown finally surpassed Tajae Sharpe on the depth chart last week and played more than double the snaps. He’s now a starter, which is a start. Since the Broncos started using Chris Harris Jr. to shadow, we’ve seen the top receivers against them be Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Dede Westbrook, and Mike Williams finish with the most fantasy points on their team. What’s the common denominator? They’re all the No. 2 options behind a clear No. 1 receiver. If the Broncos view Davis as that player, we could see Brown have a nice game, though it’s no sure thing they do view Davis as such, meaning Brown is a risky WR5 who we need to see more targets out of in order to trust.

Adam Humphries: The Broncos secondary has allowed just four wide receivers to score double-digit PPR points against them all year, so it’s not a matchup you’re likely to find a breakout game. They also got Kareem Jackson back in Week 5, a safety/cornerback hybrid who does a good job keeping slot receivers in check. Outside of one game against Jacksonville where he had the best matchup on the field, Humphries hasn’t topped four catches or 30 yards in a game. He’s not a fantasy option.

Emmanuel Sanders: We watched Sanders play just 38-of-60 snaps last week in a run-heavy game where they threw the ball just 20 times, and it crushed Sanders’ fantasy floor, as he finished with just one catch for nine yards. There are rumors floating around that the Broncos may trade Sanders at some point. The Titans will have Adoree Jackson in coverage for about half the time (when Sanders is at RWR), a young cornerback who’s been good since they took him away from shadowing receivers. He’s been targeted just 16 times in coverage this year, allowing 11 receptions for 110 yards and one touchdown. While his numbers aren’t legitimate shutdown territory, but rather of the limiting variety, as teams have targeted the middle and right side of their defense, as Malcolm Butler has seen 34 targets and Logan Ryan has seen 38 targets in coverage. The Titans have allowed a high 70.3 percent completion-rate to receivers, so knowing that Sanders has seen at least five targets in all but one game, including seven or more targets in 3-of-5 games. That’s volume hard to find, so keep Sanders on the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 radar, and he should come with a stable floor despite the lackluster performance in Week 5.

Courtland Sutton: It may sound nuts to some, but Sutton is your No. 1 receiver on the Broncos. He’s now seen more targets (38) and has more receptions (26), yards (401), and touchdowns (3) than Sanders. Even better, he’s seen at least seven targets in every game, while Sanders’ target share has been a bit of a roller coaster. Sutton will see Malcolm Butler most of the time, the Titans worst cornerback. Since the start of 2018, he’s allowed 10 touchdowns in his coverage, which is the second-most in football. He’s continually gotten worse as his career has gone on, and it’s displayed in his completion percentage in coverage. His numbers by the years (rookie until now): 52-55-56-59-64-74. No wide receiver has totaled more than 91 yards against the Titans this year, but knowing how good they’ve been against the run, they’ll rely on their receivers to win matchups. With Sutton’s matchup and his high target floor, he should be in lineups as a WR3 at worst.

TEs
Delanie Walker: Here’s a fun fact not many know: Walker has played the third-most snaps among Titans tight ends over the last two games. No, I’m not kidding. He’s played a grand total of 44 snaps out of a possible 119 snaps. He’s still run the most routes, but that’s not saying much. His 29 routes over the last two weeks ranks 33rd among tight ends, behind guys like Dallas Goedert, Josh Hill, and Irv Smith Jr. So, when you see his two catches for 14 yards over the last two weeks combined, you understand why. His knee injury has to be worse than they’re letting on. Outside of allowing Darren Waller 7/70/0 in Week 1, the Broncos defense hasn’t allowed a tight end to top 24 yards, though the competition has been very weak. Justin Simmons is the one who’ll primarily be responsible for Walker, a safety who’s allowed just 58 yards and one touchdown in his coverage this year that spans over 16 targets. Until we see Walker play a full complement of snaps and get back atop the tight end rotation, he can’t be trusted.

Noah Fant: It seems the gap is shrinking between Fant and Jeff Heuerman, who played 36 snaps to Fant’s 40 snaps last week, though that could be simply because he’s a better blocker in what was a run-heavy gameplan. We had seen Fant total three or four targets in every game until Week 5, which was not quite enough to trust him, so after seeing one target last week, it definitely doesn’t help. The Titans were the best in the league at defending tight ends on a per-target basis last year, allowing just 1.41 PPR points on each ball thrown a tight end’s way. This year, they’re allowing a much-higher 1.85 PPR points per target, though touchdowns have been the main reason, as they’ve allowed four of them through five games. They allowed touchdowns to David Njoku, Eric Ebron, James O’Shaughnessy, and Lee Smith, but held Austin Hooper scoreless. Fantasy football – particularly the tight end position – is hard. Knowing the Titans 6.48 yards per target is right in line with last year’s number of 6.40 yards per target, I’m convinced the touchdowns will slow down. Fant is not a recommended streamer.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

Total: 43.5
Line: DAL by 8.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: After what was a phenomenal start to the season, Prescott has fallen off the last two weeks, though his fantasy numbers didn’t show it against the Packers. He’s now totaled at least 22.5 fantasy points in 4-of-5 games, though the fact that he’s turned the ball over four times over the last two games, you should expect the Cowboys to go with a more run-heavy approach. He was under pressure on just 26 percent of dropbacks in Weeks 1-4 with his left tackle Tyron Smith but was pressured 37 percent of the time against the Packers without him. Jerry Jones said Smith’s availability this week looks “promising.” That would be good because their starting right tackle La’el Collins went down with a knee injury last week, and he is questionable. Oddly enough, the only quarterback who averaged more than 7.3 yards per attempt against the Jets was Baker Mayfield, though much of his 325 yards came after the catch. No quarterback has finished better than the QB12 against them, including Tom Brady, Josh Allen, and Carson Wentz. It’s kind of crazy, too, because the Jets have been without linebacker C.J. Mosley since Week 1, linebacker/edge rusher Jordan Jenkins since mid-Week 2, and just got defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back, who missed two games. Oh, and they also benched their high-priced cornerback Trumaine Johnson for two games, though he returned to the starting lineup last week. Playing in New York isn’t likely to be a treat, but it’s worth noting that since the start of the 2018 season, opposing quarterbacks have thrown for at least two touchdowns in 8-of-10 games on the road against the Jets. Prescott should be considered a mid-to-low-end QB1 this week, though he’s no lock for elite production. *Update* Neither Smith or Collins practiced all week and both are considered questionable. 

Sam Darnold: He’s been cleared to play in this game, though it’s not a great matchup he’s returning to, as the Cowboys have not allowed more than 16.8 fantasy points to a quarterback this year. To be fair, they’ve had one of the softest schedules playing against Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh Rosen, Teddy Bridgewater, and then Aaron Rodgers, who didn’t have to do anything with Aaron Jones running wild. Four of the five quarterbacks are either backups or have been benched already. It’s still an achievement to not allow a passing touchdown over the last three games like they have. You have to imagine the Jets will ease Darnold back into the action, which would mean limited pass attempts. That’s a problem when the Cowboys are allowing just 6.34 yards per attempt (sixth-lowest mark in NFL) and a 1.58 percent touchdown-rate (second-lowest mark in NFL). Is it the competition? Maybe, but the Cowboys allowed just three quarterbacks finish better than the QB12 last year. Darnold should be considered a middling-to-low-end QB2 this week.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: Here’s an odd stat: The Cowboys are 3-2 and Elliott has been healthy, yet he ranks ninth in carries. That’s not something anyone would’ve expected without injury. News came out that backup Tony Pollard has both knee and ankle injuries, meaning he’s likely going to miss time. This puts us back in the workhorse Zeke mode. The Jets have faced an average of 27.3 running back touches per week, which could all be Elliott’s in a game they’re projected to win by a full touchdown. It would certainly help if left tackle Tyron Smith and right tackle La’el Collins would be on the field, though it appears Collins is a more of a question mark (neither practiced all week). The Jets have their own injuries they’ve been working through, as they got defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back last week, but were still without linebackers C.J. Mosley (doubtful this week) and Jordan Jenkins (questionable). Despite the injuries, the Jets have allowed just 3.58 yards per carry, but the touchdown every 20.8 carries ranks as the sixth most often. Because of that they’ve allowed the 16th most fantasy points to the position. Either way, when you find a game where Elliott is locked in for 20-plus touches in a game they’re favored to win by a full touchdown, you play him. There’s been eight games in his career he’s been a seven-plus point favorite, and he’s averaged 109.0 rushing yards in those games. He’s an elite RB1 you plug in your lineup and he can be considered in cash, too.

Le’Veon Bell: Despite playing with second- and third-string quarterbacks, Bell has managed to stay afloat in fantasy, as he’s currently the RB10 in PPR formats on a per-game basis. With Darnold returning and more scoring opportunities, Bell could approach the top-five conversation. The Jets have also averaged just 56.8 plays per game, so you have to assume that increases as well. The Cowboys opponents have averaged 63.2 plays per game, which is right around the league average. After allowing a massive performance to Aaron Jones last week where he scored four touchdowns, the Cowboys have suddenly allowed the sixth most fantasy points to running backs. It’s kind of crazy, as they’d allowed just two running back touchdowns in the four prior weeks, which included no touchdowns to Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. In fact, Jones has been the only RB1 performance they’ve allowed on the year. We must take Jones’ performance as a blip on the radar, as there were no major injuries on defense, and there’ve been no signs of them being weak against the run. With similar personnel and the same scheme, they allowed the ninth-fewest points to running backs in 2018. Where they did struggle, though, was to pass-catching running backs, as they’ve allowed 14 different running backs to rack up at least 30 yards through the air, including Jones’ 75 yards last week. The bottom line here is that Bell has seen at least 22 touches in every game this year. Since the start of 2018, the Cowboys have faced eight running backs who’ve totaled more than 20 touches. Just one of them scored less than 19.9 PPR points, and that was Adrian Peterson who is a non-factor in the passing game. Bell is a must-play RB1 who’s safe enough for cash lineups.

WRs
Amari Cooper: Remember when Cooper was considered too volatile to start on a weekly basis? He’s now totaled at least 14.4 PPR points in 4-of-5 games, including three games with at least 22.6 PPR points. See what happens when you target one of the best players in the game? The Jets welcomed Trumaine Johnson back to the starting lineup last week after benching him in Weeks 2 and 3, though he was targeted just twice in a game the Eagles toned down the pass attempts. On 12 targets in coverage, Johnson has allowed 10 receptions for 143 yards, good for a 116.3 QB Rating. On the other side of the field is Darryl Roberts, who’s allowed a 105.1 QB Rating in his coverage. It’s really a plus matchup on both sides. Prescott has looked at Cooper the most this year, but the argument can be made that he should be looking his way even more. His QB Rating when targeting Cooper is 142.8, while it’s 109.1 when targeting Gallup, and a measly 59.7 when targeting Cobb. The Cowboys are likely to go back to a run-heavy approach for this game which would limit the pass attempts, but Cooper is locked-and-loaded as a WR1. He’s safe enough to use in cash lineups, too.

Michael Gallup: He returned to the lineup in Week 5 and played 61-of-71 snaps, so he can safely be played without injury concern. He played well in his return, racking up seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. On a points-per-game basis, Gallup currently sits as the No. 7 wide receiver in fantasy football and has averaged just under 10 targets per game. Despite playing just four games, the Jets have allowed six wide receivers to score 11.2 or more fantasy points against them, with five of them being perimeter wide receivers, which Gallup and Cooper are. The cornerback he’ll see most of the time is Darryl Roberts, a former fifth-round pick who’s allowed 52-of-84 passing for 601 yards and seven touchdowns since the start of 2018. He’s not someone you need to worry about, provided the targets are there. Start Gallup as a low-end WR2 moving forward.

Randall Cobb: After a promising debut with the team, everything has gone downhill for Cobb. He’s been targeted 27 times and Prescott has thrown three of his six interceptions while targeting him. Removing Week 1 from existence, Cobb has seen 22 targets and netted just 14/141/0 on them despite being in plus-matchups for three of those games. The Jets signed Brian Poole in free agency and he’s been the bright spot covering the slot for them, allowing just nine catches for 56 yards on 17 targets in coverage. Feel free to ignore Cobb until he strings a few good games together. *Update* He’s listed as questionable after missing practice on both Thursday and Friday. 

Robby Anderson: Thank goodness the Luke Falk experiment is over, as Anderson has found himself on plenty of waiver wires. His stock improves dramatically with Darnold back under center, though the matchup against the Cowboys isn’t a good one. They’ve allowed just 10 wide receivers to finish as top-20 options against them since the start of the 2018 season. They keep the ball in front of them with their zone coverage which is a problem with a receiver like Anderson who doesn’t rack up the receptions, but rather leans on some bigger plays to vault up the fantasy leaderboard. Did you know he has just two games with more than four receptions since the start of last season? He has a great schedule from Week 9 through Week 15, but he’s not someone who’s a recommended start in Week 6. He’s in the WR4/5 conversation as a big-play hopeful against a Cowboys team that’s allowed just nine pass plays of 40-plus yards over their last 21 games.

Jamison Crowder: If there’s one player we know is excited to have Darnold back, it’s Crowder who saw a career-high 17 targets from him in their first game together. Knowing the Cowboys play a zone-heavy scheme, we should see Crowder utilized over the middle of the field. There were three slot-heavy receivers who finished as top-36 options against the Cowboys last year (Golden Tate, Adam Humphries, Keke Coutee), though they haven’t fared well through five weeks in 2019. Sterling Shepard was held to 6/42/0 on seven targets, Trey Quinn totaled 4/36/0 on seven targets, Jakeem Grant totaled 4/27/0 on seven targets, and Geronimo Allison tallied just 2/28/0 on six targets. It’s tough to see Crowder make a big splash this week, especially not knowing if Darnold will be a bit rusty. He’s still in the middling WR4 conversation in PPR formats, but I’d probably prefer a receiver with more upside.

Demaryius Thomas: It was pretty crazy to see Thomas walk into the lineup and see nine targets when Robby Anderson hadn’t seen more than seven in any game this year, but these are the Jets we’re talking about. Thomas was signed after Darnold was diagnosed with mono, so it’s very unlikely they have any sort of connection, especially in a tough matchup against the Cowboys who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers through five weeks. He’s someone to keep an eye on, but as a 32-year-old coming off an Achilles injury with a new quarterback in a new offense, it’s not likely to amount to much.

TEs
Jason Witten: He’s in a 66/33 timeshare with Blake Jarwin, though Witten saw all four targets in the 34-24 loss to the Packers in Week 5. Witten has now seen exactly four targets in every game, which is quite impressive, actually. His yardage has ranged from 15 to 54 yards, though he hasn’t found the end zone since back in Week 2. The Jets were the best in the NFL at stopping tight ends in 2018 and started out on the right track through the first three games, but did allow Zach Ertz to finish as No. 4 tight end last week when he hauled in five balls for 57 yards and a touchdown. It’s not a major thing, though, as Ertz is always posting yardage and was due for some positive touchdown regression, so it makes sense. It’s not a matchup to target with Witten.

Chris Herndon: Most ran to their waiver wires to grab Herndon, though many are forgetting his situation is much different than it was in 2018 when he was competing for targets over the middle of the field with Jermaine Kearse and Bilal Powell. The Jets are running a new offense that’s targeted tight ends just seven times, and it’s netted just five catches for 17 scoreless yards. If you go back to Miami, Adam Gase didn’t use a tight end heavily there either, and that was despite limited weapons everywhere on the field. The Cowboys have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends to this point, though the majority of the points they allowed were to Evan Engram in Week 1 when he tallied 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. Since then, no tight end has totaled more than 41 yards. It’s also worth noting that Gase said it’s no guarantee Herndon even plays, as he may not be in “game shape.” You should wait to see how he’s deployed before trusting him. *Update* There are reports saying that Herndon injured his hamstring last week while training away from the team and that he is unlikely to play. Clearly, you’re going to need another option.