Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

Total: 44.0
Line: MIN by 3.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: After a pushover win against the Jets last week, Wentz has a much tougher matchup on deck as he heads into Minnesota to play the Vikings. It appears he’ll be without DeSean Jackson once again, as there are reports saying Jackson is “hoping” to return in Week 7. That’s a problem against the Vikings, who have held every quarterback they’ve played to less than 7.2 yards per attempt, which includes Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. This game is also taking place in Minnesota, which adds another level of concern. Over the last 16 games they’ve played at home, just one quarterback has been able to finish as a top-12 quarterback, and that was Josh Allen, who rushed for two touchdowns (threw for just 196 yards and one touchdown). Oddsmakers see the problem, too, as they’ve set the Eagles team total at just 20.5 points. The ceiling for Wentz this week might be something like 275 yards and two touchdowns, though even that is unlikely. He’s nothing more than a middling QB2 this week.

Kirk Cousins: There was somewhat of a rant here last week on why Cousins had been treated somewhat unfairly, so it was good to see him post the top-12 numbers we were looking for. Was it a great matchup? Absolutely. Does he need to take advantage of those weeks? Absolutely. Now on to play the Eagles, who were forced to play three backup cornerbacks in Week 5. While Orlando Scandrick may be starter-worthy, Rasul Douglas and Craig James aren’t cornerbacks you’re scared throwing at. The issue, however, is the Eagles pass-rush that has generated tons of pressure. They’re top-two in quarterback pressures, right alongside the Packers, who pressured Cousins on a ridiculous 66 percent of his dropbacks in Week 2. That combined with the fact that this game has one of the lower totals on the slate is worrisome. Still, it’s tough to see the Vikings moving the ball on the ground against an Eagles defense that’s allowed a league-low 2.81 yards per carry on the season, meaning they’ll have to rely on Cousins to move the ball more than they’d like. Prior to Luke Falk happening, the Eagles had allowed nine passing touchdowns through four games, which ranked as the fourth-most in football. Quarterbacks also averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game against them during that time. As you can see, we have quite the predicament here. Knowing Cousins will throw the more is a positive, though he’ll be doing it while under pressure. He’s a high-end QB2 this week but far from a sure thing.

RBs
Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard: The snaps were split right down the middle with these two last week, though Howard found his way into the end zone, which was somewhat predictable knowing their usage. It’ll be a bit different this week when they head into Minnesota, as they’re not a pushover opponent. Through five games, they’ve allowed just two top-35 running back performances, and both came in the same game. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are the only two running backs to hit double digits against the Vikings this year, and that game took place in Green Bay, while this game will be on Minnesota’s home turf. Knowing that Jones was the only one to score a rushing touchdown, that’s going to scratch Howard off the list of confident starters, as he’s the type who needs to find the end zone to be started. Sanders ran 14 routes last week, which was more than Darren Sproles and Howard combined, and he turned them into four catches for 49 yards. Sproles is also considered week-to-week with a quad strain, giving Sanders the receiving role. That’s a good thing, as the gamescript should trend in his direction this week. The Vikings haven’t been particularly giving to any area with fantasy running backs this year, as no running back has totaled more than four catches or 34 yards against them, but they have allowed two receiving touchdowns. Looking back at last year, they did allow 6.60 yards per target to running backs, which was above the league average. Howard shouldn’t be played as anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB4, while Sanders is just a low-end RB3 who you’re hoping to get some production through the air with.

Dalvin Cook: Another week passes, and we have another 100-yard game for Cook. It was his fourth such performance this year, though it was the first game he didn’t score a touchdown. Somehow, I doubt his fantasy owners are upset about the 25.8 PPR points he scored. He has what might be his toughest test of the year against the Eagles, who’ve allowed a “let be double-check to ensure this is right” 2.81 yards per carry through five games. They’ve done that despite playing against Derrius Guice, Devonta Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones, and Le’Veon Bell. Sure, those running backs may not have sky-high yards per carry averages on the year, but part of that is due to the Eagles run defense. No running back has totaled more than 44 yards on the ground, and that was J.D. McKissic who gained 44 yards on one carry. The good part for Cook is that he’s heavily involved in the passing game and has seen 19 targets over the last three games. If there’s a weakness on the Eagles, it’s to pass-catching running backs, as they’ve allowed three different running backs rack up at least six receptions. This was a similar trend last year, as the Eagles allowed the sixth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. The 110 receptions they allowed were the second-most behind only the Falcons. Cook should be in lineups as an RB1, though he may not have another 100-yard game on the ground this week. There are likely better options in cash games knowing no running back has finished better than the RB15 against the Eagles. It also doesn’t help that one of his starting offensive guards (Josh Kline) has been ruled out.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: It was a waste of a perfectly good matchup last week, though there was nothing Jeffery could do about it. The Eagles threw the ball just 29 times, limiting the potential of Jeffery’s impact in fantasy. His eight targets were the most on the team, though six catches for 52 yards isn’t anything to brag about. The Vikings matchup is going to be a bit tougher, as he’s surely going to see a lot of Xavier Rhodes, who’s just as physical as Jeffery is. Rhodes may not be as quick as he once was, but he’s still allowed just eight touchdowns over the last four years which spans over 250-plus targets. The last time these two met was Week 5 of last year when Jeffery saw eight targets and produced just two catches for 39 scoreless yards. Jeffery is usually the type who can score multiple touchdowns in any matchup, though it’s unlikely in this one, making him a mediocre WR3 with a low floor.

Nelson Agholor: Since his two-touchdown game against the Lions in Week 3, Agholor has been an afterthought in the pass-attack. He’s totaled just four targets over Wentz’s last 56 pass attempts despite DeSean Jackson being out of the lineup. It’s tough to say he should be targeted a whole lot against Mike Hughes this week, who’s had an immediate impact upon his return to the lineup. Last year’s first-round pick has faced 15 targets in coverage and allowed just nine catches for 62 yards on them. He was a large part of the reason the Vikings shut down both Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard last week. Knowing the Vikings have allowed just 10 passing touchdowns in their last 16 home games also makes it unlikely he sneaks in a touchdown. He’s nothing more than a WR5 option with a limited ceiling.

Stefon Diggs: Knowing there were two squeaky wheels last week, it was going to be a chore for both of them to get the grease, and Thielen was first up on the list. Against the Eagles, they’ll have another opportunity to get the ball into their wide receivers’ hands. Their starting cornerback duo of Rasul Douglas and Craig James is one to target, as they’re the least-talented portion of this defense. It seems Diggs does much better in games Cousins gets the ball out quickly, while Cousins seems to improvise better with Thielen. If the Vikings want to beat the Eagles pass-rush and limit the pressure on Cousins, they’ll get the ball out quickly. Diggs should remain in fantasy lineups against a defense that’s already allowed five different wide receivers to post 22-plus point PPR games against them. None of those wide receivers were slot-heavy, so it’s not a matchup-dependent thing, either. You can consider him a high-end WR3, though I’d be surprised if we don’t get WR2 production in this game.

Adam Thielen: It seemed like Cousins had years to throw the ball against the weak Giants defense and he made the most of it, finding Thielen seven times for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Finding out he averaged 3.09 seconds to throw the ball, it makes sense. By comparison, the league-leader in time to throw this season is Josh Allen at 3.10 seconds. There won’t be nearly as much time against the Eagles, so look for some quicker-developing routes among the Vikings receivers this week. Thielen will see plenty of 2018 undrafted free agent Craig James in coverage, who just played his first full game in Week 5. He was targeted five times against the Jets, allowing three catches for 30 yards, though when Luke Falk is throwing, we can’t take much away from these numbers. In the end, the Eagles are allowing the fifth-most points to the wide receiver position and they haven’t allowed anything on the ground. If the Vikings are going to score many points, they’ll go through the passing game. Thielen should be cemented in lineups as a high-end WR2, though it shouldn’t shock you if Diggs outscores him this week. The Eagles and the Falcons are the only teams who’ve allowed five 20-point performances to wide receivers this year.

TEs
Zach Ertz: Of all the games Ertz could score a touchdown, he does so in a tough matchup against the Jets? I mean, you were playing Ertz regardless, but the tight end position continues to fluster me and millions of fantasy players. Ertz has now seen at least seven targets in every game, which bodes well for his chances against the Vikings. Here’s the list of tight ends who’ve seen at least six targets against them since the start of the 2018 season:

It just so happens that Ertz tops the list, as he crushed them in Week 5 last year for 10 receptions, 110 yards, and a touchdown. Many will wonder if the Vikings can simply change their approach, and while I’m sure they’re aware of it, it’s difficult to scheme against tight ends because they’re kept in to block so much of the time. Even Ertz, one of the premier pass-catchers, is kept in to block 43 percent of the time. He has the best matchup on the field for the Eagles, so we should continue to see him targeted rather heavily en route to another TE1 performance.

Kyle Rudolph: He has just eight targets on the season, including just one target in each of the last three games. He’s yet to top 12 yards in a game. He’s not even remotely on the fantasy radar, especially when you factor in the fact that the Eagles have been the best in the league over the last three-plus years at defending the tight end position. No, no, no. Seriously, you’re better off betting on Geoff Swaim.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 55.5
Line: KC by 5.5

QBs
Deshaun Watson: After playing in a game that netted 85 points, Watson and the Texans pass-attack will head into Kansas City to take on a Chiefs defense that lost a lot of players in Week 5. Defensive tackle Xavier Williams is likely out with an ankle sprain, as is Chris Jones with a groin strain, and they were already without defensive end Alex Okafor due to a hip injury. Then you go and look at the linebackers… Anthony Hitchens left Week 5 with a hamstring injury, and they were already without Dorian O’Daniel who has a hamstring injury. The Chiefs front seven has taken a beating early in the season and it’ll be up to Watson to take advantage. Playing in Kansas City has been tough on opposing quarterbacks, as I highlighted here last week with Jacoby Brissett. Here it is for those who may have missed it: The Chiefs have been a different defense at Arrowhead Stadium, allowing at least a full touchdown less when at home in each of the last three full seasons. There were 512 games played last year in the NFL. Of the 50 games that featured the most fantasy points scored in them, how many do you think took place at Arrowhead? One. Keep in mind that includes the Chiefs fantasy players, too. Lamar Jackson did finish as the QB10 in Kansas City in Week 3, but it was due to his rushing, as he threw zero touchdown passes in that game. The top six quarterback performances against the Chiefs last year came on the road. The only quarterback who scored more than 21 fantasy points in Kansas City was Blake Bortles, who did because he rushed for 34 yards and a touchdown. Now, to be fair, the injuries adding up certainly make a difference, as does the high-powered offense of the Texans, but it may not be a surefire shootout as some think. You’re going to start Watson as a QB1 every week, but the question here is whether or not he’s a must-play in DFS this week. I don’t feel nearly as strongly on him this week as I did last week because there’s a scenario where the Texans lean on the run-game to play keep-away from the Chiefs offense. Watson is definitely in play as a tournament option but will be highly owned.

Patrick Mahomes: Despite throwing just one touchdown over the last two weeks combined, Mahomes is still the No. 2 fantasy quarterback. The issue is that his sprained ankle may limit his mobility against the Texans. He also may be without both his starting left tackle and left guard this week. This could be a problem against a defense that has registered 15 sacks on the year, which ranks eighth in the league. If they don’t get to Mahomes, he’s going to give them problems, as their secondary is what you’d describe as one to target in fantasy football. The 142 completions through five games is the most in football, which amounts to a massive 28.4 per game. This is rather insane considering the Chargers face fewer pass attempts (27.0) per game. Mahomes averages 14.3 yards per completion, which would amount to more than 400 yards in this scenario. While that’s probably not likely, it goes to show the possibilities if his ankle is okay. Knowing that 4-of-5 quarterbacks have scored 18-plus fantasy points is probably a good sign as well. It appears that he’ll get his No. 1 target back on offense, though he’s likely going to be without Sammy Watkins. You shouldn’t be overthinking anything with Mahomes. He had a bad game in which he was without his top two receivers, his top two offensive linemen, and had his ankle rolled up on mid-game. Provided he returns to practice and Hill is active, Mahomes should be started as an elite QB1. *Update* He’s going to be missing his starting left tackle and left guard for this game, which is problematic considering his mobility may be limited. 

RBs
Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: We’re now roughly one-third of the way through the fantasy season and Hyde has more than double the carries of Johnson. This is not just a fluke. They’re treating Hyde similarly to the way they used Lamar Miller, as Hyde is on pace for 234 carries and 22 targets. Last year, Miller totaled 210 carries and 35 targets in 14 games. Johnson is stealing some of the receiving work, which is why Hyde isn’t quite an RB2, but he’s a solid RB3 on a weekly basis. The Chiefs defense is dealing with plenty of injuries, particularly on the front seven, as they may be without two of their top defensive linemen and two of their top linebackers. Even before that, they were a matchup to target, as they’ve now allowed at least 111 rushing yards to four straight teams of running backs. In each game, there’s been at least one running back who’s rushed for at least 99 yards, though just one of them (Mark Ingram) has scored. The lack of touchdowns have been the only issue against the Chiefs. When you’re allowing 5.30 yards per carry, the touchdowns will eventually follow. There are just four other teams who’ve allowed more than 600 rushing yards on the year (Chiefs have allowed 668), and all of them have allowed at least five rushing touchdowns. Hyde should be in lineups as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 knowing he’s gotten all five carries inside the five-yard-line. Johnson may be a factor as well, as the Chiefs were the team that allowed the fifth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs last year. They are in a new scheme this year and no running back has totaled more than four receptions, so we could be seeing a shift in priorities. Johnson is in an 8-10 touch role right now, but considering Hyde is the one they use around the goal line, it’s limiting Johnson’s appeal, making him just a high-end RB4 who you’re going to see have an increased role when the Texans fall behind.

Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy: With Williams returning to the lineup, nobody had any clue how the backfield would shake out. One thing I do know is that nobody predicted what we saw in Week 5. Williams played 34 snaps and touched the ball 12 times, McCoy played 14 snaps and touched the ball two times (both receptions), and Darrel Williams played 13 snaps and failed to record a touch. It appears that Damien Williams is back to his role as the lead back. In the games he’s played, he’s totaled 15 targets while McCoy has totaled six targets. This is important because the Texans aren’t a team you can continually run the ball against. They’ve allowed a mediocre 4.24 yards per carry and just two rushing touchdowns through five games but have really struggled against pass-catching backs. There have already been six running backs to amass 40 or more receiving yards. Running backs have caught 45-of-49 targets (91.8 percent completion-rate) for 336 yards and a touchdown. That amounts to 84.6 PPR points, or 16.92 points per game through the air alone, which ranks second in the NFL to only the Bengals. Knowing Sammy Watkins is likely to miss the game and Hill is coming off a multi-week injury, you should expect Williams to be involved in the passing-game. He should be played as a middling RB2 with upside, though it’s clear Andy Reid wants a timeshare. After tallying just two touches and 14 snaps, it’s impossible to trust McCoy as anything more than a risky RB4/flex option.

WRs
Deandre Hopkins: We saw Fuller have the game many expected for Hopkins last week, which left many disappointed with his seven-catch, 88-yard performance. Believe me, his time will come. The Chiefs don’t have a top-tier cornerback who’ll latch on to Hopkins, so he’ll see a bit of everyone. Oddly enough, the Chiefs secondary has allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, though it’s not the most telling stat. They’ve only faced an average of 16.0 wide receiver targets per game, which ranks as the fourth fewest in the NFL. That’s a number Hopkins can hit on his own. On a per-target basis, they’ve allowed 1.95 PPR points per target, which ranks as the 10th highest mark in the league. They’ve yet to face a receiver who’s seen double-digit targets. Here are the opposing No. 1 receivers they’ve played this year: D.J. Chark 4//146/1, Tyrell Williams 5/46/1, Marquise Brown 2/49/0, Kenny Golladay 5/67/2, and T.Y. Hilton 4/37/0. Now, which of those No. 1 groups does Hopkins belong to? Not the speed ones of Brown and Hilton. This could be Hopkins’ week to shine as the WR1 for the Texans, and you should start him as such. He can also be considered in cash lineups knowing he’s caught at least five passes and seen at least seven targets in each game.

Will Fuller: Here’s a sentence out of last week’s edition of The Primer: With the number of targets he’s getting, combined with his 16.8-yard average depth of target that ranks fifth in football, he’s going to have a big game really soon. Well, that escalated quickly. 217 yards and three touchdowns later, he’s a hot commodity. The Chiefs have done well with fast receivers, as T.Y. Hilton was held to just 4/37/0 last week and it was Marquise Brown held to 2/49/0, though I will note that Brown did get behind the defense, but Lamar Jackson simply missed him. But seeing the Chiefs have allowed just one passing play of 40-plus yards highlights the fact that they’ve done a good job keeping the play in front of them. With all the injuries on their front-seven, we should see the Texans attack the belly of their defense, which is where Hopkins gets the majority of targets. Now that we know Fuller’s surgically-repaired knee wasn’t the issue for his inefficiency over the first month of the season, you should start him as a WR3 nearly every single week and live with the down weeks in order to get the extraordinary highs. It’s no different this week in a game that’s projected for 55-plus points. He’s no longer a cheap option to use in cash lineups, though, as his price skyrocketed.

Keke Coutee: With Kenny Stills out of the lineup, Coutee saw a measly four targets against the Falcons. He did turn them into 72 yards, so it’s not as if he struggled. If Stills misses this week, Coutee will see a lot of Kendall Fuller in the slot, though the Chiefs do run a lot of zone coverage, and they may be without two starting linebackers this week. Coutee was targeted much more against zone coverage last year, which could be something, though it could be nothing, as it’s a very small sample size. It’s never a bad thing attaching yourself to a potentially high-scoring game when chasing a guy who’s available in 80-plus percent of leagues, so if you’re in bye week hell, he could at least offer a stable WR5 floor if Stills remains out. *Update* Stills was limited throughout the week in practice and is considered questionable. 

Tyreek Hill: From what we’re hearing, Hill should be able to play this week, so we’re moving forward with that in mind. This is massive considering Sammy Watkins is unlikely to play after aggravating his hamstring injury. The Texans are a team that’s been struggling to contain wide receivers, as evidenced by the 77 receptions for 967 yards and six touchdowns they’ve allowed to the position, which amounts to the sixth-most fantasy points. The cornerback trio of Johnathan Joseph, Bradley Roby, and Lonnie Johnson is among the softest units in the league. Knowing the Chiefs run three-wide almost all the time, it means Roby will be in the slot, which is where Hill runs nearly half of his routes. Roby’s not a slot cornerback by design, as he was relegated there when the team cut Aaron Colvin after Week 1. Knowing that more targets will be coming Hill’s way (no Watkins), he’s to be inserted into lineups as a WR1 right away. If not for him returning from a month-long injury, Mahomes dealing with an ankle sprain, and the offensive line potentially being without two starters, I’d want to attack this matchup anywhere I could, but with all those variables, he should not be considered safe enough for cash lineups. *Update* He’s considered a game-time decision this week after getting in a limited practice all three days. I’m expecting him to suit up this week. 

Sammy Watkins: Doubt he plays, prepare to be without him. If he gets in practice and appears to be on track to play, I’ll come back and update. Update: He’s doubtful. 

Mecole Hardman: Despite both Watkins and Hill being out for the entirety of the Colts game, Harman saw just six targets, hauling in four of them for 79 yards. He’s been too reliant on big plays to play with confidence, especially now that Hill is coming back to the lineup. Back in Week 1, with Hill in the lineup, he saw just one target against the Jaguars. It seems they had him playing what was the Hill role in the offense, though he didn’t have the refinement that Hill offers. It’s not as if he didn’t have opportunity, either, as he saw at least five targets in all four games. Most would be surprised to see that Byron Pringle played more snaps than Hardman in the game against the Colts. He’s still on the radar with Watkins out, as that clears up plenty of targets in the offense and the Texans have allowed a ridiculous 28.4 completions per game. How will he be used with Hill back and Watkins out? My guess would be that he’ll rotate with Hill in and out of the slot, but split time with Pringle. He’s a WR5 but one who’s one play away from WR3 production.

Demarcus Robinson: He’s firmly planted on the field in 2WR sets for the Chiefs, and though they play 3WR almost all the time, it’s a valuable role to be in with Watkins out of the lineup. He’s going to see a mixture of Johnathan Joseph and Lonnie Johnson in coverage, though Johnson is the one he’ll see most of the time. He’s a rookie cornerback who was forced into the starting lineup when they cut Aaron Colvin. He’s not ready for NFL receivers just yet and has struggled in coverage. Most don’t realize that Robinson is top-20 in air yards among wide receivers, which is typically a good indicator of future success. He obviously had a massive game against the Raiders when he posted 6/172/2, but he’s now finished with 43 yards or less in each of the last three games, though his 19 targets are nothing to scoff at. When Mahomes is targeting you around six times per game and your average depth of target is 17.1 yards down the field, production should be right around the corner. He should be considered a middling WR4 but one that comes with plenty of upside.

TEs
Jordan Akins and Darren Fells: Just around the time it seemed like Akins was making some headway in the offense, we get a 50/50 timeshare with Fells. Seriously, they both ran exactly 23 routes in the Week 5 win over the Falcons. When you have a tight end room that’s split like that, it’s hard to find production unless they’re splitting a ridiculous target share. Through five weeks, Texans tight ends have a 17.6 percent target share. That would be good for one single tight end. The Chiefs are a matchup you can target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed a league-high 37 receptions to them, though the 5.94 yards per target ranks as the fourth-lowest mark in the league. So, essentially, there’ve been a ton of dump-offs to tight ends and not a lot has come of it. They’ve also allowed just one touchdown on those 37 receptions. You don’t want to risk a one- or two-point game by playing a Texans tight end if you can help it.

Travis Kelce: It’s so odd to think Kelce’s had a ‘disappointing’ season to this point when he’s on pace for 90 receptions and 1,404 yards, which would be the new yardage record for tight ends, by the way. The reason he’s not lived up to his late-first/early-second round draft price is due to the one touchdown he’s scored on 43 targets. Guys, if we didn’t have a 31-game sample where he’s scored 18 touchdowns in the previous two years sample size, I’d understand the concern, but there’s really not one here. He’s absolutely fine. The touchdowns will come. Does it start this week? Well, the Texans have allowed just the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends through five weeks, but we mustn’t forget it’s a small sample size and need to check the level of competition. Jared Cook, James O’Shaughnessy, Lance Kendricks, Greg Olsen, and Austin Hooper. The only one who produces on a constant basis is Hooper, and he was able to haul in 5-of-8 targets for 56 yards with a two-point conversion, finishing as the TE5 on the week. Going back to last year with the same defensive scheme, the Texans allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including four 20-point PPR performances. You shouldn’t be falling for the small sample size. Go ahead and play Kelce as your TE1 in season-long, and then plug him in plenty of DFS lineups, too.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns

Total: 47.0
Line: CLE by 2.0

QBs
Russell Wilson: Just one year after throwing a career-high 8.2 percent touchdown-rate, he’s back at it this year. His 7.7 percent through five games is the second highest mark of his career, and that’s despite losing Doug Baldwin this offseason. Wilson should be the front-runner for MVP through five games. Now onto play the Browns who’ve allowed a 6.41 percent touchdown-rate, which ranks as the seventh-highest in football. We watched them get steamrolled on Monday night football but for whatever reason, they’re still two-point favorites? It’s times like this where it seems they (oddsmakers) know something we don’t. The Browns have allowed at least two passing touchdowns to every quarterback not named Luke Falk, and let’s not pretend they’ve played stiff competition, as Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Jimmy Garoppolo have been relatively mediocre passers this year in non-Browns games. The downside is that only Goff and Jackson topped 29 pass attempts, which is already an issue with Wilson, as he’s thrown the ball 28 times or less in 3-of-5 games. Fortunately, he’s been ridiculously efficient. It would also help Wilson if the Browns were without their top two cornerbacks again, as Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams have missed each of the last three games with hamstring injuries. You’re going to play Wilson as your QB1 this week and you should get solid results. The spread on this game concerns me a bit for cash games, but if Ward and Williams are out, I see no reason to avoid him there, either. Update: Ward and Williams both returned to practice and are trending towards playing. Another important note is that Wilson’s left tackle Duane Brown is considered doubtful. The Browns front-four is pretty nasty, so it’d be wise for Wilson to get the ball out quickly.

Baker Mayfield: What in the world were we watching Monday night? That wasn’t the confident, cocky quarterback who was the runner-up for rookie of the year in 2018. He looks lost right now and the one thing he’s always had, his accuracy, was even way off against the 49ers. The play-calling has been atrocious, but Mayfield himself has happy feet from all the hits he’s absorbed over the first five games. He’s been sacked 16 times, which ranks sixth-most in the league, but even worse, he’s posted a 22.2 QB Rating when throwing under pressure. The only quarterbacks who’ve been worse? Mitch Trubisky, Josh Rosen, Eli Manning, and Luke Falk. The Seahawks front-seven has pressured the opposing quarterback at least 37 percent of the time in 4-of-5 games this year, which is above average. The Seahawks have holes in their secondary if they don’t get pressure, as evidenced by both Jared Goff and Andy Dalton throwing for 395-plus yards against them. They have not allowed more than two passing touchdowns in a game this season, which is odd when you know that Goff threw 49 passes and Dalton threw 51 of them, and that they’ve allowed 26 or more points in 3-of-5 games. The only quarterbacks who averaged less than 7.5 yards per attempt against them were Mason Rudolph and Teddy Bridgewater, two guys who aren’t throwing very far from the line of scrimmage. This isn’t a terrible matchup if you can hold off the pressure, though I’m not convinced they can. With the way Mayfield has looked, combined with the play-calling, it’s tough to trust him as anything more than a middling QB2 right now.

RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: These two running backs are different in a lot of ways, and if you watched Thursday night football, you know that. Carson is the bruiser who’ll get every yard possible, while Penny is more of the “could break a big play” type. Knowing Carson saw 28 of the 36 touches last week should definitely ease concerns about Carson’s job security after the fumbling issues. The Browns defense was just gashed for 280 total yards and three touchdowns by the combination of 49ers running backs. The injuries have piled up for their defense, as they’ve been missing their two starting cornerbacks and middle linebacker the last three games, and they’ve allowed an average of 25.3 points per game because of that. The 5.01 yards per carry they’ve allowed now ranks as the fifth-highest mark in football and we’ve watched running backs average 23.4 carries per game against them, so it’s not a limited sample size. Knowing they’ve allowed three top-six performances to running backs, you’re playing Carson as a solid RB1 this week who’s gamescript-proof. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll have had 10 days to rest up while the Browns defense has had six days. He can even be considered in cash games. Penny is clearly a handcuff/change-of-pace back who has tons of value should Carson fumble again, though we can’t anticipate that. Meanwhile, he’s just an emergency RB4/5 option who’ll likely get 5-8 touches per game. *Update* The Seahawks are likely to be without both left tackle Duane Brown (doubtful) and right guard D.J. Fluker, which can certainly impact the run-game’s effectiveness.

Nick Chubb: Despite the current state of the Browns offense, Chubb has managed to post top-five numbers through five games. Granted, much of that came in one game, but he’s totaled at least 17 touches in every game, something that cannot be found practically anywhere. The Seahawks have yet to allow a running back total more than 69 yards on the ground against them this year, though it’s also worth noting they’ve played just two running backs who’ve seen more than 11 carries. Alvin Kamara posted 69 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries while Todd Gurley totaled 51 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. The area to attack the Seahawks defense is through the air, as both Kamara and David Johnson were able to rack-up at least eight catches and 92 yards apiece. The Rams essentially used Cooper Kupp as that guy, as he racked up nine catches over the middle of the field. Chubb had seen at least four targets in every game up until the Browns decided to target him once while Mayfield was getting pressured constantly. Are you fed up with Freddie Kitchens play-calling? I know I am. Still, plug Chubb in as an RB1 against a Seahawks defense that’s allowed a top-18 PPR running back in 4-of-5 games this year. He should be getting the goal-line touches when they get down the red zone in this game, leaving as little room for error as possible.

WRs
Tyler Lockett: He’s now seen four or less targets in 3-of-5 games, which is far from ideal for a wide receiver most are relying on for WR2 production. The good news is that he’s been able to snag touchdowns in two of those games, as Wilson has been ultra-efficient. Now on to play the Browns who’ve been missing their top two cornerbacks the last three weeks. While Lockett is in the slot for 72 percent of his routes, the absence of Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams does impact him because it forces their slot cornerback T.J. Carrie to cover the perimeter, which moves safety Eric Murray to the slot. We watched slot-heavy Cooper Kupp flat-out dominate the matchup against the Browns when he tallied 11 catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3, then saw Willie Snead catch a long touchdown pass in the slot during Week 4. Not that Carrie is a shutdown cornerback or anything, but he’s clearly not as bad as what they’ve been working with. Lockett should be in lineups as a WR2 regardless, but he benefits if the cornerbacks are out again. He’s not someone to consider in cash lineups knowing how low his target numbers can get. *Update* Ward and Williams are both expected back for this game after participating in practice all week. 

D.K. Metcalf: When you know how efficient Russell Wilson has been (he’s completed 73.1 percent of his passes with a 7.7 percent touchdown-rate), you have to put value on Metcalf when he leads the team in air yards. His 31.6 percent of the Seahawks air yards leads the team (Lockett at 29.5 percent), so even if David Moore and Jaron Brown are eating into his snaps, Metcalf has a very valuable role. The Browns secondary hasn’t been tested by many top-tier talents this year outside of the Rams receivers, and we saw Brandin Cooks rack up 8/112/0 and Cooper Kupp total 11/102/2 in that game. Not to say the Seahawks are comparable to them, but the Browns aren’t a matchup to fear for wide receivers. Metcalf would see a lot of T.J. Carrie if both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams are out again, which doesn’t seem like a bad thing when he see he’s allowed 266 yards and three touchdowns on 31 targets in coverage this year. However, when going back over the last four years, one of the best routes that Carrie’s defended is the go-route. He’s defended 18 go-routes since 2016, and on them, he’s allowed just five catches for 201 yards and no touchdowns. That’s where Metcalf does most of his damage, so maybe we shouldn’t be relying on him this week? He’s a boom-or-bust WR4-type option who doesn’t have the greatest matchup. *Update* Both Ward and Williams are expected back after practicing all week. 

David Moore/Jaron Brown/Malik Turner: These three are rotating behind Lockett and Metcalf, making all of them unplayable. The snap count against the Rams was: Brown 22, Turner 17, and Moore 16. Compare that to the 67 for Lockett and 51 for Metcalf, and you have no clear-cut winner of the bunch. Until we see one of them jump out in front of the others, it’s a situation to avoid.

Odell Beckham: It’s gotten to the point where it’s ridiculous how little the Browns have featured one of the best receivers the game has ever seen. I’m still buying, though he’d better come with WR2 pricing at this point. He’s too damn good to struggle no matter what offense he’s in. Beckham should line up across from Tre Flowers the most this week, which should be considered a gift for the Browns to unwrap. Flowers has seen 30 targets in coverage this year, allowing 21 receptions for 282 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t much different with him last year, either, as it’s pretty much what you get out of most fifth-round cornerback selections. You have to keep trotting Beckham out there in fantasy lineups and wait for things to turn around. They need to simply get the ball in his hands with shorter pass routes. He’s definitely out of cash game consideration, but knowing the public perception, he’s one of the better tournament plays on this slate.

Jarvis Landry: While the Mayfield/Beckham connection has been struggling, Landry has quietly put together back-to-back quality games. There’s just one game this year he’s had more than four receptions, but he’s totaled at least 62 yards in 4-of-5 contests. Of the seven biggest games the Seahawks have allowed to receivers this year, four of them were to the team’s primary slot receiver, which is the role Landry plays. Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Larry Fitzgerald were all able to post top-36 games against them. The loss of Justin Coleman has been pretty big, as it’s softened the zone over the middle of the field, allowing for plenty of completions. Landry isn’t an exciting option, as he’s not used much in the red zone (four touchdowns in 21 games with the Browns), but he should provide a stable WR3-type performance here.

TEs
Will Dissly: I mentioned last week that he should be considered an every-week TE1 until he gives us a reason not to. His fantasy finishes so far in 2019: TE42 (left injured), TE4, TE6, TE2, and TE7. The Browns have been a giving defense against tight ends and that continued against George Kittle on Monday night. Despite throwing the ball just 29 times, Kittle totaled six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. It was the third time in five games the Browns allowed a top-eight performance, with the only two who didn’t being Ryan Griffin and Gerald Everett (was targeted twice). It surely helps they’ve allowed a touchdown every 8.0 targets to them, which is second to only the Cardinals one every 7.7 targets. Again, go ahead and start Dissly as you regularly should in your TE1 spot. He’s getting to the point where he’s probably playable in cash, though Wilson’s limited pass attempts is concerning for his floor.

Demetrius Harris and Ricky Seals-Jones: Both of them are running routes, but not too many of them. Harris’ 12 routes ranked 41st among tight ends in Week 5, while Seals-Jones ran just eight routes, which ranked 50th. That’s clearly not enough to start either of them with confidence. The Seahawks have allowed three tight ends to post double-digit PPR points against them, though each of those tight ends saw at least five targets (two of them saw at least seven targets). The two of these tight ends have combined for seven targets over the last two weeks, though two of them were in the end zone. In the end, if they don’t find the end zone, you’re probably left with a void in your lineup. That’s not ideal. Seals-Jones has the big-play ability, so if you wanted to start one it’d be him, but there are better options out there.

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins

Total: 41.0
Line: WAS by 3.5

QBs
Case Keenum: It appears the Redskins will go back to Keenum under interim head coach Bill Callahan.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing when you consider he gave a few fantasy-relevant performances. He’s now about to play what is the best matchup a quarterback could ask for against the Dolphins. No quarterback has posted less than 7.7 yards per attempt against them, with 3-of-4 quarterbacks averaging at least 9.4 yards per attempt. No quarterback has finished outside the top-10 against them, which is something we can’t say about any other team. Yes, the Redskins are going to run the ball a lot in this game as they look for their first win, but keep in mind that each of the first four quarterbacks to play the Redskins finished with 32 attempts or less. When playing against a team that’s allowing a 10.3 percent touchdown-rate, and an NFL-high 10.3 yards per attempt, you have to at least consider streaming that quarterback. Then you go back and remember Keenum was benched against the Giants. Ugh. He should be able to post very respectable QB2 numbers in this game.

Josh Rosen: Coming fresh off their bye week, Rosen and the Dolphins have had two full weeks to gameplan for a Redskins team that’s now allowed at least 24 points to each of their five opponents. Knowing the Dolphins have yet to score more than 10 points, we’re at somewhat of a crossroads.  Rosen himself may not have posted big numbers in his two starts but it hasn’t helped that his pass-catchers have dropped six passes in those two games. The Redskins have yet to hold a quarterback outside the top-20 performers for the week, and they’ve allowed three passing touchdowns in 4-of-5 games. Does the change in the coaching staff mean different things for the defense? Not likely considering the interim head coach is the offensive line coach, who has zero impact on the defense. The Redskins are below-average and/or near the bottom in every statistical category, including allowing a league-high 74.7 percent completion-rate. If you’re desperate, Rosen should be able to post top-20 numbers in this matchup at home against the Redskins.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: If there were going to be one last hurrah for Peterson with the Redskins, it’d be this week against the Dolphins. Not just because the Dolphins have struggled to stop anyone on defense, but we now get to add interim head coach Bill Callahan’s comments to the mix. He stated that the Redskins have abandoned the run far too early in games and that he plans to get the run-game more involved. When your team falls behind, it’s really tough to rack up the carries, but knowing the Dolphins have not scored more than 10 points this season, the game shouldn’t be getting out of hand. Despite already getting their bye week out of the way, the Dolphins have allowed the third-most rushing yards (615) in the NFL and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns. Opposing running backs have averaged 32.3 rushing attempts per game against them, which is more than double what the Redskins have averaged (15.4 rush attempts per game). The Redskins offensive line has been horrendous without Trent Williams at left tackle, but the Dolphins can make up for a lot of that. Peterson can be played as a touchdown-dependent RB3 this week. Meanwhile, Thompson might be left out of the party unless his role in the new offense changes. Not many teams have had to target their running backs against the Dolphins, and as a result, just one running back (Austin Ekeler) has totaled more than three receptions. When you know that Thompson has seen 1.5 times more targets than he’s seen rushing attempts is a problem in this matchup. Again, there’s always a chance Callahan involves him more in the run-game, but this seems like a Peterson-heavy game. Thompson is a semi-risky RB4 whose floor is lower than usual.

Kenyan Drake and Mark Walton: It may have been buried with the bye week, but the Dolphins started playing Walton over Kalen Ballage. It made sense after all the bonehead plays Ballage was responsible for. It’s not like the No. 2 role in the Dolphins offense has much appeal, but it’s still something that’s noteworthy. After having a very small role in Week 1, Drake’s touch count over the last three games has been 11-15-12, making him worthy of RB3 consideration. The Redskins haven’t allowed much on a per-play basis, as the 4.29 yards per carry and a touchdown every 43.0 carries are both better than the league average, though the volume has been there, as running backs have averaged 31.8 touches per game against them (ranks fourth-most in football). While that isn’t likely to be the case with the Dolphins, they should still be able to run the ball 20-plus times for the first time this year. Knowing they’re going to be at home, well rested, and (hopefully) prepared, Drake should be considered a decent RB3 play with a sturdy floor. Walton is likely to mix in for 5-10 touches, though it’s hard to say anything is concrete based on one game. This is more of a situation to pay attention to in order to determine handcuff status.

WRs
Terry McLaurin: It was good to see him play a full complement of snaps last week (53-of-56) against the Patriots, even if he didn’t have a great fantasy day (3/51/0). The matchup was the worst he’ll see all year, though we’re happy to see him come out of the game healthy. He’s likely to see Xavien Howard in coverage, though he’s been a shell of his former self, allowing a 78 percent catch-rate in his coverage, including a touchdown every 9.0 targets in coverage. When quarterbacks target him, they have a 141.2 QB Rating. Meanwhile, McLaurin has finished as the WR13 against the Eagles, the WR20 against the Cowboys, and the WR17 against the Bears, which were much tougher matchups than the one he has this week. He should be in lineups as a rock-solid WR2, especially with Keenum under center.

Paul Richardson: After seeing nine targets against the Bears in Week 3, Richardson has seen just seven targets over the last two games combined. It’s worth noting that he was without Keenum for 1.5 of those games, which could’ve had an impact. He’ll line up against Eric Rowe most of the time, a former second-round pick who’s been a liability in coverage over each of the last few years and hasn’t held quarterbacks under a 105.0 QB Rating since way back in 2016. You aren’t going to start Richardson outside of a dire situation, but it’s not out of the question that he produces top-50 numbers this week.

Trey Quinn: In the three full games with Keenum: 20 targets. In the last two games: 8 targets. Like the rest of the pass-catchers, Quinn benefits from Keenum under center. The Dolphins have actually allowed just three wide receivers to total more than four receptions against them, as teams haven’t needed to pass too many times. They have allowed 2.40 PPR points per target, so if you want to get into double-digit PPR territory, just over four targets typically does the job. After Jomal Wiltz was obliterated over the first few weeks, the Dolphins benched him, though it was somewhat of a rotation behind Xavien Howard and Eric Rowe, including safety Reshad Jones. He gets a bump with Keenum but not enough to start confidently.

DeVante Parker: If we were to eliminate the game against the Patriots where Parker was held catchless, he’d rank 25th among wide receivers with 201 yards in the other three weeks. The issue is that his teammate Williams has been on the rise with Rosen under center. Williams has out-targeted Parker 19-10 in the two Rosen starts, though Parker has produced 126 yards and a touchdown while Williams has turned in just 114 scoreless yards. It’s no lock that the Redskins shadow any wide receiver in this game, but if they shadowed anyone with Josh Norman, it’d likely be Parker due to his experience. It’s not like Norman is the cornerback he used to be, as he’s allowed 12 touchdowns in his coverage over the last 21 games, which is the most in football. As a whole, the Redskins have already allowed 10 wide receivers to hit double-digit PPR days against them. He’s far from a sure thing, but if you can’t play Parker in this matchup, when can you play him? He should be considered a WR4 with a mediocre ceiling.

Preston Williams: He’s now seen a team-high 19 targets in the two Rosen starts, though they have amounted to just eight catches for 114 yards. On the season, Williams actually has five more receptions than Parker, while both of them have totaled exactly 201 yards and one touchdown. Knowing the Dolphins have not scored more than 10 points, it leaves you feeling somewhat desperate when starting someone like Williams, but following the targets makes sense. Heading into the bye week, his 30 targets ranked as the 30th most among wide receivers. The Redskins have allowed a massive 2.25 PPR points per targets to the wide receiver position this year, which ranks as the fourth-most in football behind only the Falcons, Dolphins, and Giants. There have been nine wide receivers who’ve seen at least six targets against them, and eight of those wide receivers have scored at least 10.9 PPR points, which is typically good for WR3 production. Knowing that Williams has seen at least six targets in each of the last three games, he’s in a good position. Knowing his offense is a lot less efficient than most, you have to slightly downgrade him, but he’s in the solid WR4 conversation for this game.

Albert Wilson: It seems like Wilson is going to return to the team after a month-long absence due to a calf injury, though we don’t know how big or small his role will be in his first game back. The matchup is fantastic, as the Redskins have been absolutely destroyed in the slot, as the combination of Jimmy Moreland and Fabien Moreau have allowed 19-of-21 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown while covering the slot. This would definitely be a week to snag Wilson off waivers in case he has a breakout game against the Redskins but playing him in his first game back might be Russian roulette. Remember how they had to “ease” Kenyan Drake back into the offense in Week 1? That was off a one-week injury. Wilson has one of the better matchups in football, but play him at your own risk.

TEs
Vernon Davis: He returned to practice, so it seems like he’ll be good to go this week. The matchup is a great one to return to, as the Dolphins have allowed a league-high 11.63 yards per target to tight ends through four games. Quarterbacks have completed 23-of-27 passes directed at them, which amounts to a ridiculous 85.2 percent completion-rate. For reference, the highest mark during the 2018 season was 79.8 percent. And outside of Mark Andrews, they haven’t played another top-10 tight end. The Redskins are looking to get back to the run, but when they do throw, Davis should find himself open. He has seen four targets in each game, making him a solid streamer as a borderline TE1/2. *Update* Davis has been ruled out for this game, meaning Jeremy Sprinkle will step in and play the starting tight end role. He’s already seen 12 targets on the year, totaling seven catches for 75 yards. You could do worse as an emergency TE2 starter. 

Mike Gesicki: Through four games in a brand-new offense, Gesicki has shown absolutely no improvement over his rookie year. If you were to combine the two seasons, Gesicki has now caught just 28-of-43 targets for a measly 253 yards and no touchdowns. That’s over a span of 20 games. If you don’t want to do the math at home, that’s just 1.4 receptions and 12.6 yards per game. Ugh. The Redskins have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the tight end position this year, but they’ve also played against Zach Ertz and Evan Engram, which will make any roster look worse on the stat sheet. Even those guys finished with a mediocre 54 yards apiece, so this is hardly a matchup to target with tight ends. Gesicki is not on any fantasy radar.