Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 46.0
Line: DAL by 3.5

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: It appears Rodgers will be without his top receiving option this week, as Davante Adams is dealing with a toe injury. That’s a problem for someone like Rodgers who throws a lot of timing routes and relies on his receivers to be in the right place at the right time. The Cowboys are dealing with some injuries of their own, as Tyrone Crawford (hip) and Antwaun Woods (knee) have been forced to miss time. That would definitely be a contributing factor to the 29.3 percent pressure-rate from their defense, which ranks fourth-worst in the league. There’s been no quarterback to average more than 7.0 yards per attempt against the Cowboys but look at the group they’ve played thus far: Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh Rosen, and Teddy Bridgewater. Two of those guys aren’t starting anymore, while the other two are backup quarterbacks. It’s odd to see Rodgers’ team projected for just 21.3 points, but knowing they’ve run just 63.0 plays per game, the Cowboys have run 62.0 plays per game, this could be one of the slower games on the slate. Even when healthy, the Cowboys defense did allow 11-of-16 quarterbacks to score at least 15.5 fantasy points, though just one of them scored more than 21.1 fantasy points. Because of that, no quarterback finished as a top-six option against them all season, so the ceiling was lacking in this scheme that’ll allow underneath throws. Rodgers gets knocked down a bit with Adams out, making him just a low-end QB1 for this contest.

Dak Prescott: We watched the empire fall down last week as the Saints completely shut down the Cowboys offense, holding them to just 10 points. It was Prescott’s first game with less than 22.5 fantasy points, so we do need to cut him some slack. The issue is that his performance has declined in each of their four games, so we must ask if teams are catching on to Kellen Moore‘s offense. The Packers will have had 10 days to prepare for this game, though the pass defense hasn’t been the issue. On the year, they’ve allowed just 6.25 yards per attempt and a 57 percent completion-rate, which ranks third-best in the league. They’ve also pressured opposing quarterbacks more than any other team in the league to this point, which is an area Prescott has struggled, completing just 19-of-31 passes for 250 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s only been pressured 26.0 percent of the time, which is among the lowest in the NFL, but that is going to change with left tackle Tyron Smith out. With him in the lineup last year, the Cowboys passed the ball 55.1 percent of the time. Without him, they did just 51.5 percent of the time and the sack-rate went from 8.1 percent to 12.7 percent. This is a week where the Cowboys have to impose their will on the ground and take the pressure off Prescott. Again, we don’t want to overreact to one bad week, but in this matchup without Smith, Prescott is just a low-end QB1. *Update* The Packers have listed starting cornerback Kevin King as doubtful, which upgrades his matchup, though it should still remain a run-heavy gamescript.

RBs
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: We don’t know if Williams will be cleared from the concussion protocol for this game, but we have to proceed as if he’ll be out for now. Jones has been far from efficient the last two games, totaling just 40 yards on 23 carries, though he has scored three touchdowns on those carries, salvaging his fantasy day. While most just look at the boxscore and think he sucks, Jones has actually totaled 50 yards after contact in those two games, so if he’d just gone down when first touched, he would’ve totaled -10 yards on 23 carries. The Cowboys have been a pretty stout run defense this year, allowing just 77.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. If you were to remove one Saquon Barkley carry that went for 59 yards (to open the season), the Cowboys have allowed just 3.69 yards per carry. The silver lining is that they played against the Redskins and Dolphins for two of those games, who combined for just 103 yards on 36 carries. With Davante Adams out of the lineup and potentially Williams, Jones may be asked to do even more this week. That would be a 20-touch role in the offense, which is worth a ton. Even in what’s not considered a great matchup, Jones should be locked into lineups as a high-end RB2, at worst. *Update* Williams has been ruled out for this game. 

Ezekiel Elliott: We’ve been waiting for an Elliott smash spot and this would be it. The Packers may have gotten much better when it comes to rushing the passer this offseason, but their run defense has suffered massively. They’ve now allowed at least 72 total yards to five different running backs over the last three weeks. Not just yardage, either, as there’ve been five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown to running backs in that span, including a three-touchdown outburst by Jordan Howard. The Packers have allowed 34.8 PPR points per game to running backs, which ranks only behind the Bengals and Dolphins, the two teams fighting for the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft. Ever since his “break in” game in Week 1, Elliott has totaled 18 carries in every game and even saw seven targets last week. If the Cowboys want to win this game, they’ll ride Elliott in a great matchup. He’s worth cash-game consideration and is an elite RB1 start.

WRs
Davante Adams: He’s been ruled out for this game.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: His role won’t change with Adams out, as he was already a full-time player in the offense. It does, however, free up additional targets that should raise his fantasy floor. He’s already seen at least five targets in every game and has 28 on the year, which ranks 33rd among wide receivers. The Cowboys have been a tough matchup for wide receivers since the start of the 2018 season, as they’ve allowed just 10 wide receivers to finish as top-20 options against them over those 20 games. Every one of them has seen at least six targets, so they’ve made the receivers earn it. Just two of them didn’t score touchdowns. One was Michael Thomas, who finished with 9/95/0 last week and the other was Adam Humphries who tallied 10/79/0 in Week 16 last year, so plenty of catches were needed. He has more appeal with Adams out, though he’s not moving any higher than a low-ceiling WR3 this week.

Geronimo Allison: He’s the one impacted the most with the Davante Adams injury, as he went from playing 46.8 percent of the snaps over the first three weeks to playing 79.7 percent of the snaps in Week 4. The competition and gamescript could have impacted that, but Allison is someone who has experience in both the slot and perimeter, which means he’ll play a full-time role. The Packers do run three-wide receiver sets about 44 percent of the time, which isn’t a massive amount, so this is a big promotion for Allison. The issue is that the Cowboys have been a bad matchup for wide receivers. It took an average of 11.7 PPR points to finish as a WR3 last year, a number that just 14 wide receivers hit against the Cowboys, which ranked fourth-best. Through four games this year, just two wide receivers have hit that mark (Michael Thomas and Terry McLaurin). He’s still a starting receiver for Rodgers, so we have to consider him, but it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a WR4 this week.

Amari Cooper: As mentioned last week, it was a tougher matchup against Marshon Lattimore than most wanted to admit. The Packers are likely going to shadow Cooper with up-and-coming shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander, another tough matchup, though he has less of a resume than Lattimore. The Packers didn’t have him shadow Alshon Jeffery last week, so it’s possible they leave Alexander at RCB, though they did use him on Zach Ertz at times last week. Cooper is talented enough to get free of any cornerback, though this matchup isn’t the greatest one to attack in DFS formats. Alexander has allowed just 11-of-27 passing in his coverage for 125 yards and a touchdown. If the Cowboys want to get Cooper a cushion, they need to line him up in the slot more than the 10 percent they currently are. Plug him in as a mid-to-high-end WR2 and hope for the best.

Michael Gallup: The Cowboys have not shut down a return for Gallup this week, though it should still be considered a long shot. He’ll likely match-up with Kevin King, who did a good job with Alshon Jeffery last week, though Jeffery didn’t have a particularly good game. King is someone who can be beat deep, as evidenced by his 20.7 yards per reception this year and his 15.5-yard career mark. He’s only allowed a 55.2 percent catch-rate over his career, so it’s kind of an all-or-nothing approach. If Gallup plays, he can be considered, though this should be a run-heavy gameplan out of the Cowboys. Ideally, you give him a week to ensure he’s back in a full-time role off his knee scope. *Update* He’s listed as questionable and expected to play this week. The Packers have also listed Kevin King as doubtful, which would certainly upgrade the matchup. 

Randall Cobb: Despite three straight matchups that could’ve/should’ve been exploited, Cobb has finished with 41 yards or less in each of them. It’s a shame, too, as it appeared he’d fit in well to Kellen Moore‘s offense. He has seen 16 targets in those games, so he’s not a forgotten player, but he hasn’t taken advantage of those opportunities. The Packers have veteran Tramon Williams in the slot, someone who’s gone against Cobb in practice quite often, as this is Cobb’s “revenge” game. Williams has done a great job to this point, allowing just four catches for 78 yards on nine targets this year. With the targets he’s getting, Cobb remains on the WR5 radar, but he’s not someone who’s a recommended start against his former team.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: We heard on the broadcast last week that Aaron Rodgers said he wanted to get Graham more involved, and then, he saw nine targets against the Eagles and racked up 6/61/1 in what was supposed to be a tough matchup. It was the second-most targets Graham has seen with the Packers and now that Davante Adams is out, we could see him become a regular contributor. Knowing he saw just one target in each of the previous two games does show us a ridiculously low floor, though. After allowing Evan Engram to torch them for 11/116/1 in Week 1, the Cowboys have had to play Vernon Davis, Mike Gesicki, and Jared Cook, all of which they held in check. They run a lot of zone coverage, which should allow the veteran Graham to find holes, as the receivers are likely to struggle in a tough matchup. There were eight tight ends who finished as top-15 options against a similar defense last year, so this clearly isn’t a “avoid” matchup and knowing Graham just produced against the Eagles defense, it should give hope. With Adams out, his floor should be high enough to consider him a low-end TE1 this week.

Jason Witten: We’re still seeing Blake Jarwin eat into Witten’s target potential, as the difference right now is 16-10. Witten has seen exactly four targets in each game, increasing his yardage over time as he’s now tallied back-to-back 50-yard games. The Packers were one of the best teams in the NFL at defending the tight end position and it appeared to still be the case through three weeks. It’s probably considered a win that they held Zach Ertz to 7/65/0, though Dallas Goedert also tallied two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. That was just the fifth touchdown they’ve allowed to tight ends over their last 20 games, so it’s far from a smash spot. Witten is the guy you stick in your lineup in a pinch and expect 5.0-10.0 PPR points, though you don’t expect more. That puts him in TE2 territory but he’s not a must-stream option or anything.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 56.5
Line: KC by 10.5

QBs
Jacoby Brissett: Despite being without T.Y. Hilton, Brissett posted his biggest fantasy game of the year. It certainly helped that they fell behind against a weak Raiders defense who were without two starters. The Chiefs are likely to put him in a similar situation and their defense is not what you’d consider good. They’ve now allowed at least 26 points in 3-of-4 games, though one important note is that they played three of those games on the road. The Chiefs have been a different defense at Arrowhead Stadium, allowing at least a full touchdown less when at home in each of the last three full seasons. There were 512 games played last year in the NFL. Of the 50 games that featured the most fantasy points scored in them, how many do you think took place at Arrowhead? One. Keep in mind that includes the Chiefs fantasy players, too. Lamar Jackson did finish as the QB10 in Kansas City in Week 3, but it was due to his rushing, as he threw zero touchdown passes in that game. The top six quarterback performances against the Chiefs came on the road last year. The only quarterback who scored more than 21 fantasy points in Kansas City was Blake Bortles, who did because he rushed for 34 yards and a touchdown. This is not me saying Brissett can’t be a streamer, but rather me saying it’s not as high of a ceiling as some are expecting. He should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2 this week.

Patrick Mahomes: Of all the weeks Mahomes would be a letdown, it was in a dome game against the Lions, who were without their top player on defense. Fantasy wins, yet again. It was the first time he’d failed to throw at least two touchdowns since Week 5 of last year. After that game, he threw for 352 yards and four touchdowns the following week. The Colts are going to be without starting free safety Malik Hooker, who suffered a torn meniscus in Week 3, though they may be getting inside linebacker Darius Leonard back (he’s been ruled out), who has missed the last two weeks. They also may be without their other starting safety Clayton Geathers, who is in the concussion protocol (he’s been ruled out). If that’s the case, Mahomes should be able to do what he wants down the field. Despite those injuries, the Colts defense has already surrendered nine passing scores through four games, the fourth most in the NFL, which comes despite seeing just 127 pass attempts, which ranks as the eighth fewest in the NFL. The 74.0 percent completion-rate that Philip Rivers, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, and Derek Carr have combined for ranks as the second highest number in the league. As you can see, the Colts are bleeding points when quarterbacks drop back. Knowing they’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher under Frank Reich’s tenure, Mahomes should be all systems go for a QB1 performance.

RBs
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: The Colts are saying that Mack could’ve gone back into the game last week had it not been a blowout, so we have to assume he’ll be out there this week, though he did miss practice on Wednesday. It’s an ankle injury for him, which can be aggravated at any time, and it does hurt to know his bye is coming next week, which could have the Colts err on the side of caution. The Chiefs are a great matchup for running backs, as they’ve allowed a league-high 5.78 yards per carry this year, which carries over from last year when they allowed a league-high 4.96 yards per carry. The numbers may be padded late in the games when the Chiefs are winning, but it allowed 19 (!!) running backs to finish as top-24 options against them last year. You don’t have to be a mathematician to know that’s more than one per game, which was the most in the NFL. If Mack practices in full this week, you should have him in lineups as a borderline RB1, though there is risk of re-aggravation, which keeps him out of the cash-game conversation. Hines played his biggest role of the season last week with Mack ailing, which allowed him to rack-up six receptions for 39 yards. The Chiefs did allow the fifth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs last year and knowing the lack of passing options available to Brissett, he could have appeal, especially if Mack is out/limited. He has the looks of a solid emergency RB4/flex this week. *Update* Mack is listed as questionable after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday but returning on Friday. 

Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy, and Darrel Williams: This running back depth chart is getting muddier by the day, as McCoy appears to be the starter, though Darrel Williams has racked up 25 touches over the last two weeks and looked good on them. We don’t know if Damien Williams will return this week (did practice Wednesday), but even if he does, there’s no guarantee he walks back into the same role. It seems like Andy Reid wasn’t lying when he said it’d be a committee this year. The Colts have been a run defense to avoid under Frank Reich and Matt Eberflus, as they’ve still yet to allow a 100-yard rusher in a regular season game. Notice how I made it a point to say regular season game? These two teams met in the divisional round of the playoffs when Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown against them. They have been beat through the air by running backs, though, as they allowed 13.2 PPR points per game through the air alone to running backs in 2018, seventh-most in the league. They rank 11th in that category so far this year. While missing inside linebacker Darius Leonard the last two weeks, we watched two struggling backs Devonta Freeman and Josh Jacobs combine for 167 yards on 33 carries (5.06 yards per carry). Leonard appears to be on track to return, but knowing they’re likely without both starting safeties, it hurts them overall. *Update* Damien Williams practiced in full all week and is considered likely to play this week. He’s a risky RB2/RB3 option this week, though he could pay off in a big way considering the Colts are without both starting safeties and inside linebacker. This makes Darrel Williams almost unplayable and should be used in emergencies only. McCoy should still be the favorite to lead the team in touches, though it’s important to note that he was limited in practice a bit this week, too. This backfield could very well turn back to the one we saw in Week 1, making McCoy a middling RB3. 

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: He’s not practicing on Wednesday, which doesn’t look good for his chances of playing this week, as the Colts have their bye week after this game. It would make sense to hold him out for another week. I’ll revisit this if he trends towards playing. *Update* He did get in a limited practice on Friday, though he should still be considered highly questionable with their bye week looming after this game. If he does play, we must assume he’s close to 100 percent and plug him in as a WR2. 

Parris Campbell and Chester Rogers: After suffering an abdominal injury, Campbell did return to the game against the Raiders, so we must assume he’s okay. It was disappointing to see him come away with just 25 yards in a game where Hilton didn’t play. The good news is that he saw eight targets, which was a team-high. Provided he practices in full, he’s an interesting option this week. The Chiefs have not seen a lot of wide receiver targets through four games (oddly), but they are below average in every per-target statistic. They have Kendall Fuller covering the slot and he’s been among the worst in football through four weeks, as evidenced by his 153.9 QB Rating in coverage on slot snaps. Of the 55 cornerbacks/safeties who’ve played at least 25 percent of snaps there, his 1.51 yards per covered snap ranks 12th-most. Knowing quarterbacks average 39.0 attempts per game against the Chiefs, there should be opportunity for Campbell to redeem himself, if healthy. He’s still nothing more than a high-upside WR4. Rogers actually plays in the slot almost full-time, but has dropped two passes and shouldn’t find much opportunity, though he may out of necessity, especially if Campbell isn’t 100 percent. He’s nothing more than a hail mary in a good matchup. *Update* Campbell has been ruled out for this game, making Rogers an interesting desperation option in PPR formats.

Deon Cain/Zach Pascal: With Hilton out of the lineup, Cain played 56 snaps while Pascal played 53 snaps. They’re both on the field quite a bit and combined for 12 targets, so it forces us to look at bit closer. Pascal has played against the Chiefs before (in the divisional round of the playoffs) and was held to just one catch for seven yards, though it’s also important to note Hilton played that game and it was with Andrew Luck. He’s made the most of his opportunity with Brissett, as is 10 targets have netted 6/125/1, so he’d be the one I’d expect to have the better shot at relevance. Meanwhile, Cain has seen 11 targets and turned them into 3/45/0. If you’re looking for a bottom-of-the-barrel streamer in deep leagues, Pascal could post numbers. *Update* With Campbell ruled out, Pascal and Cain gain even more appeal.

Sammy Watkins: He remains the No. 7 wide receiver in PPR formats through four weeks, but he’s riding on his Week 1 performance alone, as he’s failed to top 11.4 PPR points in each of the last three games despite seeing 27 targets from Mahomes. He’s had plus-matchups in two of the three games as well. The Colts run more zone coverage than any team in the league, which should help Watkins, as he’s caught 8-of-13 balls for 208 yards and two touchdowns against it this year. He also posted a WR Rating of 14 points higher against zone last year, too. Two other experienced slot receivers in Keenan Allen (8/123/1) and Mohamed Sanu (6/75/0) took advantage of this matchup, and I expect Watkins to as well. He’s a low-end WR1 this week and someone who should bounce-back in a big way. *Update* Watkins was added to the injury report on Friday with hamstring and shoulder injuries. This is definitely a concern, as mid-week injuries often keep the player out of the game. If you’re starting Watkins, make sure you have a backup plan in this game, or the 49ers/Browns game. Zach Pascal would be my choice. 

Mecole Hardman: Through three games without Tyreek Hill, Hardman has caught just eight passes, and just four coming over the last two weeks. That’s the definition of a boom-or-bust receiver, which most of you know, but you have to understand that when plugging him in your lineup, that there’s the risk of a donut, which was the case last week given his fumble. The Colts aren’t a team who typically allows big plays but the absence of safeties Malik Hooker and (maybe) Clayton Geathers (concussion protocol) could change that. Through four games, they’ve allowed just one pass play of 40-plus yards, a number that is right in line with the four they allowed last year. Only the Bills have allowed less. It’s not a game where you need to trust Hardman, who is always one play away from you cussing that you didn’t put him in your lineup. Fantasy is about playing the odds and the odds say he’s unlikely to do that this week.

Demarcus Robinson: He’s got a much more stable role than Hardman, as he’s seen 19 targets over the last three weeks, though outside of the two-touchdown game against the Raiders, he’s been somewhat of a disappointment. Mahomes targeted him nine times last week and it should have been a better game for him, though he struggled to track the ball properly on two occasions that I remember. He’s going to see a mixture of Rock Ya-Sin, Pierre Desir, and Quincy Wilson in coverage, a trio that’s struggled a lot more than they did last year, though Ya-Sin is a rookie. Robinson’s massive 18.2-yard average depth of target could be a bad thing, though, as the Colts have done a great job limiting big plays in their zone defense, though it’s important to note they’re likely going to be without both starting safeties, which would obviously affect the deep part of the field. Because of that, combined with Robinson’s target floor over the last three weeks, he should be viewed as an upside WR4 this week.

TEs
Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle: As we talked about here last week, with Hilton’s 27.2 percent target share out of the lineup, some of the targets should have been floated their way. After combining for just 20 targets the first three games, the duo combined for 13 targets in Week 4 and both found the end zone. Doyle was featured regularly while Ebron didn’t catch his touchdown until the fourth quarter, which happened to be his only catch. Similar to those Raiders, the Chiefs have a weak spot against tight ends. T.J. Hockenson may have been on his way to a big game before leaving with a concussion last week, while Darren Waller tallied 6/63/0 against the Chiefs in Week 2. Tight ends have averaged 16.6 PPR points per game against the Chiefs, which ranks as the fourth most, though it’s important to note they’ve faced the most targets (45) to this point. The 32 receptions is also a league-high, though they’ve allowed just one touchdown to this point. Most will write it off as a fluke that Doyle out-produced Ebron, but would you say that if you knew Doyle also ran 11 more pass routes than Ebron? There’s a clear trend, as Ebron ran three more routes in Week 1, then it was even in Week 2, then Doyle ran three more routes in Week 3. They’re moving toward Doyle as the focal point, so if you want to stream one, he’s the logical choice here. He should be considered a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 who’s still in a timeshare regardless.

Travis Kelce: Not that you needed another reason to play Kelce, but the Colts have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends this year. While missing Malik Hooker last week and having him play through a torn meniscus in Week 3, the Colts have allowed a combined 19 receptions, 213 yards, and three touchdowns to the Falcons and Raiders tight ends. WHAT. They’re also likely to be without their other starting safety Clayton Geathers, making Kelce a must-play in all things fantasy football. He should go bonkers.

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 46.5
Line: SF by 3.5

QBs
Baker Mayfield: We’d talked about Mayfield’s success against the Ravens last year, so it’s good to see at least something click for the Browns offense. What helped? Mayfield was pressured on just 21.9 percent of his dropbacks, the lowest in the league. The 49ers haven’t been a world-beater when it comes to pressuring the opposing quarterback, as their numbers (35 percent) are right around the league average. But here’s an interesting tidbit I found on the 49ers defense. Since the start of the 2018 season, they’ve played nine home games. In those games, they’ve allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 237 yards and two touchdowns. That was their Week 2 game last year against Matthew Stafford when he threw the ball 53 times. He and Russell Wilson have been the only two quarterbacks who’ve posted top-12 numbers in those nine games. It’s probably worth mentioning that there was just one quarterback outside Stafford who threw the ball more than 31 times, but it’s likely more than a coincidence that seven of the top eight performances they allowed to quarterbacks were on the road. We’ve still yet to see Mayfield throw multiple touchdowns this year and he hasn’t been mobile at all, so it’s difficult to say he should be in the QB1 conversation this week, though the fact that Andy Dalton and Mason Rudolph threw two touchdowns against them is promising. Consider him a high-end QB2 this week.

Jimmy Garoppolo: After a promising Week 2 game against the lowly Bengals, Garoppolo took a step backward against the Steelers, which was puzzling because they didn’t pressure him as much as we thought without Joe Staley at left tackle. He’ll be without Staley again this week, and the Browns front-four is as impressive as anyone’s. It’ll be up to Justin Skule to protect Garoppolo’s blind-side against Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, who’ve combined for five sacks through four games. All-in-all, the Browns have 14 sacks, which ranks right behind the Patriots, Panthers, and Bears. The Browns have allowed five touchdown passes over the last two weeks, though it’s important to note they were without both starting cornerbacks in those games. Both Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward should be expected back for this game, though we may not know until Monday night. Knowing the Browns have allowed a top-12 performance to every quarterback not named Luke Falk is tempting, though being without Staley is the biggest concern here. Garoppolo should be considered a middling QB2 who might be under tremendous pressure. *Update* Both Ward and Williams are considered unlikely to play on Monday night. Garoppolo has a much better matchup than initially expected, though the pressure still remains. 

RBs
Nick Chubb: With defensive tackle Brandon Williams a surprise inactive for the Ravens last week, Chubb took full advantage. It’s difficult to take much away from the 49ers run defense through three games, as they’ve played against the Bucs, Bengals, and Steelers; three teams who’ve struggled to do anything on the ground this year. We do know the 49ers have many new acquisitions on their front-seven and that they’d be improved, but the best run defense in the NFL? They ranked as the 10th worst last year, though much of the production came in the passing game, as running backs tallied 99 receptions and 798 yards through the air. Chubb has seen at least four targets and recorded at least three catches in each game, which is the reason he’s continually in the RB1 conversation despite the Browns offensive struggles. If the additions of Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, and Kwon Alexander took them to the top level of run defenses, we’ll surely find out this week. One thing we do know is that Chubb will see more than 13 carries, which is the max any running back has seen against them this year. Plug in Chubb as a low-end RB1 and hope their competition has been the reason for their success.

Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeffery Wilson: The 49ers aren’t required to put out any sort of injury report until later in the week, so don’t know about Coleman’s availability, though he was not participating in practice on Monday. The Browns defense has yet to allow a team of running backs more than 107 yards on the ground, and the only touchdown they’ve allowed was to Derrick Henry who got multiple opportunities on a goal-line plunge. Keep in mind they’ve played some good competition, too. Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Mark Ingram are the names outside of Henry, so they haven’t had an easy road to this point. The 49ers have been the No. 2 team in the NFL while averaging 175.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks second to only the Ravens. They did tally 252 yards and two of their four touchdowns against the Bengals, but still, it’s impressive through three games. The Browns ran into the Ravens (No. 1 rushing team) and didn’t allow them a top-36 running back performance (Mark Ingram was the RB39), the same as the prior week when Gurley finished as the RB53. It’s possible the Browns are just better off with Mack Wilson than they are with Christian Kirksey, who missed the last two games. Knowing there’s a lack of production, it’s tough to trust this timeshare with anything more than RB3-type production, and good luck trying to predict who gets it. Their lead running back was Tevin Coleman in Week 1, Raheem Mostert in Week 2, and then Jeffery Wilson in Week 3. It’ll probably be Breida this week, and to be honest, I’m kind of rooting for it. For now, we have to assume Coleman is out, so Breida should be considered a middling RB3 and Mostert a high-end RB4, while Wilson should be on waiver wires. *Update* Coleman has been limited in the practices he’s attended and is listed as questionable. 

WRs
Odell Beckham: The start to the season hasn’t gone like we’d planned with Beckham, though it appears that the lack of time practicing with the team this offseason did matter, as the efficiency just isn’t there yet. But I’m standing strong on the fact that he remains one of the best buy-lows in all of football. He’s going to see a lot of Ahkello Witherspoon on Monday night football, a matchup that everyone would’ve been drooling over last year, as Witherspoon had been labeled as a bust by many after his first two seasons. He’s been better this year while allowing just 6-of-18 passing for 148 yards and a touchdown, though it’s certainly a small sample size. He was in coverage on the long JuJu Smith-Schuster touchdown in Week 3, something Beckham can certainly recreate. You should not be worried about this matchup for him. Play him as a WR1 with confidence, and if you don’t own him, go out there and see what it would take to acquire him.

Jarvis Landry: He suffered a concussion towards the end of the Ravens game, leaving his status for Week 5 up in the air. If you have him on your team, you may want to snag Damion Ratley or Rashard Higgins to replace him in a pinch, though Higgins is no lock to play, either. The 49ers have played against three big name slot-heavy receivers in Chris Godwin (WR31), Tyler Boyd (WR9), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR21), though they’re different players than Landry, as they’re all big-bodied guys. He runs 75 percent of his routes in the slot, which is where K’Waun Williams plays for the 49ers. He’s been a sturdy presence for them over the last few years, though he does allow a very-high catch-rate. He’s allowed a 70-plus percent catch-rate in each of the last three seasons, though he’s allowed an average of just 9.2 yards per reception. He keeps the play in front of him. Landry could be the beneficiary of some short passes, but do the Browns heavily involve them in the gameplan not knowing if he’ll be available? He should be considered just a mediocre WR4 who loses a tiebreaker when setting your lineup due to the uncertainty.

Marquise Goodwin: The one thing we know about the 49ers wide receiver situation is that Goodwin is locked into his role as the field stretcher. The issue is that he’s a field stretcher who’s averaging just under three targets per game, which means he’s just a hail mary in lineups with limited opportunity. There are plenty of those guys in the league, which makes Goodwin a less-than-stellar option. Despite missing their two starting cornerbacks the last two weeks, the Browns have allowed the 13th fewest points to wide receivers. It appears that Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams will come back for this Monday night game, which would certainly downgrade Goodwin’s matchup. The plus part is that he’s lined up in the slot on 30 percent of his routes, which is where T.J. Carrie‘s located. Over the last two weeks, he’s allowed three touchdowns in his coverage. While he did have to defend Cooper Kupp in Week 3, he also allowed a long touchdown to Willie Snead last week. It’s still nothing more than a lottery ticket, as he’ll be lucky to run eight routes in that coverage. Goodwin should not be used in redraft leagues. *Update* It seems that Ward and Williams may miss another game, as they’ve both yet to practice this week. 

Deebo Samuel: He ranks behind Goodwin in snaps, but Samuel has nearly double the targets (14) and leads the wide receivers in that category. It’s not as if he’s had stable targets (3-7-4) or production, and it’s important to note that we’ve seen Pettis increasing in his usage. Samuel has played more than half his snaps at LWR which would match him up against fellow rookie Greedy Williams (provided he plays). Teams have only targeted Williams three times on 101 snaps, so he’s done something right, though we don’t have much of a sample size. We’d want to upgrade Samuel if Williams is forced to miss another game, though we’re unlikely to know that information by Sunday morning. The Browns haven’t been a must-play type of matchup through four weeks, and it’s not as if Samuel’s had more than one good game, so let’s continue to wait out the 49ers’ receiver situation.

Dante Pettis: He’s stuck in a similar situation as Anthony Miller of the Bears. Both players were drafted in the second-round, flashed WR3 potential in 2018, and have barely seen the field in 2019. After being told it was injury related in Week 1, Pettis played 35-of-70 snaps (50 percent) in Week 2, which was a step in the right direction. Then, in Week 3, he played 33-of-79 snaps (41.8 percent). He did catch a touchdown against the Steelers, but the limited opportunities aren’t going to cut it, especially against a team that’s allowed just four top-36 performances to wide receivers this season, with all of them coming while their top two cornerbacks were out of the lineup. Pettis can be stashed in redraft leagues, but shouldn’t be started while playing less than 50 percent of snaps.

Richie James: He’s a sleeper this week considering he plays in the slot, which is where three touchdowns have come from against the Browns the last two games. Most don’t realize he’s still playing more snaps than Pettis.

TEs
Demetrius Harris and Ricky Seals-Jones: Another timeshare at tight end? Yep. Many will run to Seals-Jones, who had a solid game, but it was Harris who ran 17 routes while Seals-Jones ran 15. It’s a situation to pay attention to, as it could be that Mayfield has found a connection to Seals-Jones, though he was essentially left uncovered on his long 59-yard touchdown. The 49ers haven’t had those types of hiccups in coverage this year, as they’ve allowed just 87 yards to the position… through three games. It wasn’t a matchup to target last year, either, as they allowed the seventh fewest points to tight ends. In fact, there were just two tight ends who topped 46 yards against them. It’s not advisable to play either of these tight ends in Week 5.

George Kittle: He hasn’t lived up to his draft price but Kittle has now totaled at least 54 yards in each of his three games, at least providing a stable floor. His 7.0 targets per game ranks eighth among tight ends (I had to double-check that), though it’s still a pace of 112 targets despite the 49ers throwing the ball just 28.0 times per game, which gives him a 25.0 percent target share. His 5.0-yard average depth of target must change, though. That’s the fourth lowest mark in the NFL. Seriously, 49ers? There were 10 tight ends who finished as top-12 options against the Browns last year, including three 20-plus point games (Jared Cook, Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper). They allowed another 20-point performance to start of the 2019 season (Delanie Walker), and then allowed Mark Andrews to finish as the TE8 last week despite playing through an injury. If there’s a game for Kittle to absolutely explode, this could be it. On top of everything, safety Morgan Burnett (quad) looks to be highly questionable. That would be a massive upgrade, as backup Jermaine Whitehead has allowed three touchdowns on just 16 targets in coverage. Kittle is a TE1 regardless, but if they’re without Burnett, he may be the TE1.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 49.0
Line: LAR by 1.0

QBs
Jared Goff: In case you didn’t scope the box scores from last week, Goff threw the ball an absurd 68 times. That’s the most attempts in one game since 2000 and the third-highest mark in the post-merger era. He continually put the Rams defense in a bad spot and it showed in their performance. Goff has not been the same quarterback since their bye in Week 11 last year. Here’s the splits with his first 26 games under Sean McVay, compared to the last 12 games (playoffs included):

While it’s impossible to say with certainty what’s happened, it coincides right around the time Todd Gurley‘s performance declined due to his knee issues. The Seahawks started out the year slow against Andy Dalton and the Bengals new offense while allowing 418 yards and two touchdowns but have somewhat righted the ship over the last three weeks, though the competition has been mediocre, at best. We did watch Mason Rudolph and Teddy Bridgewater throw for two touchdowns apiece, though neither of them threw for more than 177 yards or 6.6 yards per attempt. While playing some of his best football, Goff totaled 321 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks in Seattle last year in a game he lost Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks halfway through the game, as they were both hurt. Again, that was while he was playing his best football. While the Cardinals struggled to do anything against the Seahawks, they are a defense that’s allowed 20-plus points in 3-of-4 games, leaving some hope. Still, going into Seattle to play on primetime is likely a lot harder than playing at home against a less-than-average Bucs secondary, so it’s hard to say Goff just snaps out of his funk. He should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2, and I’m confident saying there are likely better streaming options out there.

Russell Wilson: The first mediocre fantasy day out of Wilson came in Week 4 as the Cardinals failed to make it a contest. Through a quarter of the season, Wilson is on pace for 532 pass attempts, 4,564 yards, and 32 passing touchdowns. Not bad while completing a career-high 72.9 percent of his passes at 8.6 yards a clip. The Rams defense was just demolished by Jameis Winston, though Jared Goff continually put them in a bad spot. Going back to watch that game, the Bucs started with the ball on their own 40 or better on four of their first eight possessions, including two in Rams territory. I’m not convinced the Rams are a bad defense because of that one bad performance. Wilson played very well against the Rams last year, but so did everyone else while Aqib Talib was out. It just so happens that Talib was out both times Wilson played the Rams (Week 5 and Week 10). In those games, Wilson was highly efficient, throwing three touchdowns in each game, though he failed to throw for 200 yards in either of them. Prior to allowing Winston 385 yards and four touchdowns, the Rams had allowed just eight passing touchdowns in 11 games with Talib on the field. Winston was the first quarterback to finish better than QB12. You’re not going to completely forget about Wilson and what he brings to the table, though. Oddly enough, Wilson has his highest completion percentage and yards per attempt on Thursday night football. While it may be just an eight-game sample size, it highlights that the short week hasn’t affected him. He should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for this contest.

RBs
Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown: While the rushing numbers weren’t there, Gurley looked better than he has all season in Week 4 against the Bucs. Most don’t realize that their run defense came into the game as the best in football through three weeks. Gurley also played a season-high 67 snaps last week, highlighting the truth in that he’s not limited. The Seahawks front-seven is certainly the strength of their team as well, though they haven’t been as stiff as the Bucs. They’ve now allowed in-between 71-77 rushing yards to opposing teams of running backs over the last three weeks, which is still borderline elite, especially when you consider they played James Conner, Alvin Kamara, and David Johnson in those games. Where do you beat them? Through the air to the running back position, as they’ve actually allowed more yardage to running backs through the air (265 yards) than on the ground (253 yards) through four weeks. The 57.5 PPR points they’ve allowed through the air ranks as the third-most in football, and that’s despite allowing just one receiving touchdown. Knowing that Gurley has 17 of the 20 Rams running back targets, he’s the beneficiary in this matchup while Brown is able to stay on benches. Gurley has played against Pete Carroll defenses quite often and he’s actually scored seven total touchdowns over his last two games he played in Seattle, though his golden days seem far behind us at this point. You also have to wonder if the short week will affect his workload at all. You should still plug him in as a high-end RB2 given how his strengths align with the Seahawks’ weaknesses.

Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: We didn’t get to see if Penny would eat into Carson’s touches last week with Penny inactive, though he should be good to go for their Thursday night tilt. Knowing Carson is coming off a 26-touch game on a short week, we should see Penny mix-in fairly often regardless. The Rams have shown vulnerability against the run this year, as three different running backs have been able to amass 70 or more rushing yards against them. The five rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed is tied for second-most in the league, though it’s important to note three of them came in Week 1. Carson ran against a similar Rams front last year when he totaled 116 yards on 19 carries in their Week 5 matchup, though he failed to find the end zone. The concern in this game is the amount of carries to go around, as opposing teams of running backs have totaled 23 or less in 3-of-4 games against the Rams. When you start divvying up the carries between Carson and Penny, that can get slim, unless they control the ball for the majority of the game. Both teams have averaged five-plus more plays than their opponent, though the Seahawks game pace is much slower than the Rams. Something has to give here, though oddsmakers are clearly perplexed. Knowing Carson wasn’t punished right away and that Penny is still coming off a multi-week soft tissue injury, Carson’s the one in play for high-end RB2 production, though he’s far from a sure thing. Penny could be a sneaky play given he’s fresh for a game that’s being played on a short week, though he’s still just an emergency RB4 with teams struggling to rack up the rush attempts versus the Rams.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: It’s quite odd to see Cooks almost regress in his second year with the Rams, but he’s falling further behind both Woods and Kupp in targets. His 31 targets through four games is still a very high number, though, as it would amount to 124 over a full 16-game season. The issue is that Goff struggles under pressure, which has been more often than usual. He’s been pressured on 43.8 percent of his dropbacks, which is up dramatically from 32.0 percent last year. Goff’s under pressure QB Rating was 59.8 last year and it’s 61.3 this year. Knowing that Cooks’ routes take longer to develop, his lack of production makes sense. His deep-ball (passes that travel over 20 yards in the air) has netted just 94 yards over the first four weeks, which ranks 29th among the 30 quarterbacks who’ve played 25 percent of their team’s snaps. Knowing the Seahawks pressure-rate has been above average in 3-of-4 games is concerning for Goff and Cooks. The average depth of target for the Rams receivers: Cooks 14.1, Woods 8.3, and Kupp 7.3. Cooks will see the weakest cornerback on the Seahawks, Tre Flowers, but will it matter if Goff can’t get the ball to him? Flowers has allowed 19-of-27 passing for 248 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage to this point, which amounts to a 123.7 QB Rating. Cooks’ matchup doesn’t get much better, but knowing Goff is struggling to get the ball to him, he’s just a low-end WR2 with upside if Goff gets it together.

Robert Woods: I’d warned you that Woods deserved some slack for his two down games, as he has a history in this offense that cannot be ignored. He’s not up to 26 receptions and 307 yards on the year, though he’s still yet to find the end zone. His matchup might be the toughest on the field, as he’ll see Shaquill Griffin most of the time. After a rough 2018 season, Griffin has started out strong in 2019, allowing just 52 yards on 13 targets in coverage. Teams have continually attacked the other side of the field, which is where Tre Flowers plays. It’s important to add that Woods does move away from his RWR spot about 40 percent of the time, so he’ll also see some of Flowers and some of Jamar Taylor in coverage, too. This is a week where Cooks should get going, though knowing the Seahawks will bring pressure, Goff could lean on Woods and Kupp once again, who both have significantly lower average depth of targets. Woods likely has a higher floor than Cooks this week, though his ceiling is significantly lower with his matchup, making him a borderline WR2/3 here.

Cooper Kupp: He’s currently the No. 2 wide receiver in fantasy and it’s hard to see that changing anytime soon considering how much the struggling Goff is relying on him. He’s now seen at least nine targets in every game and has three straight 100-yard games. His 46 targets rank second to only Keenan Allen. The Seahawks have downgraded their slot cornerback position since last year, going from Justin Coleman to Jamar Taylor, which is significant because Kupp was demolishing the Seahawks defense to the tune of 6/90/1 before suffering a concussion around halftime. The next time they played, he tore his ACL. There has to be a lot of bad memories when he sees the Seahawks jerseys, right? Expect the Rams to get the ball out of Goff’s hands to keep the Seahawks pass-rush at bay and knowing Kupp’s average depth of target is just 7.3 yards out, he should be the one to benefit. He needs to be locked into lineups as a WR1 until further notice.

Tyler Lockett: It was a great spot for Lockett to crush last week, though the lack of firepower on the opposing sideline limited opportunity. He’s the only receiver in the Seahawks offense playing an actual full-time role, so there’ll be better days. The Rams were just crushed by slot-heavy receiver Chris Godwin last week to the tune of 12/172/2, though he’s a lot more physical than Lockett. Nickell Robey-Coleman is typically one of the better nickel cornerbacks in the game, though he was in coverage on one of the touchdowns last week. It was just the sixth touchdown he’s allowed over the last 36 games, so it’s not a regular occurrence. Despite the three-touchdown outburst by the Bucs receivers, the Rams have still allowed just the 14th-fewest points to receivers because they hadn’t allowed a single wide receiver touchdown coming into Week 4. The Seahawks aren’t going to go toe-to-toe with the Rams offense, so don’t expect them to come out firing with tons of pass attempts; it’s not their style. Again, prior to the Bucs performance (it’s still just one week), the Rams had allowed just two wide receivers to top 18 PPR points (what it typically takes to get into the top-15 wide receivers) against them over their 11 games with Aqib Talib in the lineup. Many will point out that Lockett totaled 5/98/1 and 6/67/1 against them last year, but both games were without Talib, and the Rams defense struggled mightily when he was out of the lineup. I’m not going to suddenly consider them a matchup to target, keeping Lockett in the middling WR2 conversation and not a must-play in DFS, though you unlikely have multiple options who are better in redraft leagues.

D.K. Metcalf/David Moore/Jaron Brown: They’ve all been lumped together in this because there’s suddenly a timeshare at the position. The snap count in Week 4 was: Metcalf 39, Brown 35, and Moore 25. While Metcalf did tied Lockett for the most targets (4) among the receivers. The game was somewhat out of hand, which could have led to the timeshare, but it knocks Metcalf out of confident starting territory. Not that we were confident before, but he was trending in the right direction. The Rams perimeter cornerback duo of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib hadn’t allowed a touchdown in coverage over the first three weeks, but then allowed the combination of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to torch them for three touchdowns in Week 4. It’s hard to say anything more than it was just a bad day at the office, as they’d held Odell Beckham to 6/56/0 the prior week, and Michael Thomas to 10/89/0 in Week 2. It’s best to sit back and wait to see how this timeshare works out, though Metcalf is the best bet if you’re looking for a tournament play due to the air yards he’s been getting. His 33.4 percent of the team’s air yards is still more than Lockett’s 31.6 percent, though that gap has been shrinking.

TEs
Gerald Everett: We saw Tyler Higbee return in Week 4, which was somewhat of a surprise, though Everett was able to put together one of his best games, hauling in five passes for 44 yards and a touchdown. He ran 38 pass routes while Higbee ran 21 routes, which is more of a timeshare than you’d like for streamers. The Seahawks have allowed an 80 percent catch-rate to tight ends on the year, though it’s only amounted to 6.64 yards per target, one of the lower marks in the league. Their competition has been subpar, though, which has to be factored in. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen Jared Cook and Maxx Williams play against them and combine for just two catches and 28 yards, but they’ve struggled against everyone. The prior week, we saw Vance McDonald score two touchdowns, though he only finished with 38 yards. In the end, it’s not a can’t-miss matchup and that’s what we typically look for with the Rams tight ends. It’s not a week where you have to stream them.

Will Dissly: Some are looking to sell-high or get rid of Dissly after his big performance against the Cardinals, though you shouldn’t be one of them. Even prior to that game, he caught 12-of-14 targets for 124 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a big part of the offense and knowing we have a timeshare at wide receiver behind Lockett, it could allow for some big performances out of Dissly, who had double the targets of any wide receiver last week. The Rams just allowed O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate combine for six catches, 69 yards, and a touchdown on just six targets. It was odd because before that game, they’d allowed just 8-of-21 passing to tight ends. The completion percentage they allowed last year (61.5) was also one of the best marks in the league, though the 13.44 yards per reception ranked as the third highest. There were seven tight ends who posted top-12 numbers against the Rams last year, including four top-three performances. Now posting at least 50 yards and a touchdown in three straight games, Dissly should be in your lineup each week. He should be played as a middling TE1 until he gives us a reason not to.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.