New England Patriots at Washington Redskins

Total: 43.5
Line: NE by 15.5

QBs
Tom Brady: The Patriots have yet to allow a passing touchdown on the season and have outscored their opponents 122-27, yet Brady has averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game. This is great news against a Redskins team that’s now allowed a ridiculously high 77.9 percent completion-rate, which is the highest in the NFL. Not just that, but they’ve also allowed a 7.63 percent touchdown-rate, which is the second highest mark in the NFL. Even better – they’ve allowed those numbers while playing against Mitch Trubisky and Daniel Jones in two of the games. Combining that all in with Brady’s 36-plus pass attempts, and you’re looking at a game that’s likely to net 300 yards and three touchdowns. Knowing that the run-game has been struggling, it makes sense for the Patriots to use the short passing game to move the ball, and it’s not as if the Redskins are familiar with the Patriots gameplan like the Bills were last week. Look for Brady to get back above the 20-point mark for the fourth time in five games and live up to a top-12 performer this week. He’s a safe QB1 play this week who should come with a rock-solid floor.

Colt McCoy: It appears that McCoy is the one who’ll be under center for the Redskins this week, but will it matter that much? They’re the one team in the NFL who’s yet to allow a passing touchdown, while everyone else has allowed at least three of them. Knowing we’re entering Week 5, that is ridiculously impressive. Now asking a backup-type quarterback to play against them while missing his starting left tackle and maybe the team’s best receiver? I’m not making this up… the Patriots have allowed 5.88 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Here are some players who are averaging more than that: Hayden Hurst, Blake Jarwin, Dawson Knox, Bennie Fowler, KeeSean Johnson, Darius Slayton… Okay, I’m done. You’re not playing McCoy.

RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: The run-game has been bad for the Patriots, there’s no other way to put it. The 332 yards on 100 carries while playing against the Jets and Dolphins in two of those games is horrendous and losing James Develin to injured reserve surely won’t help. They have scored four touchdowns, but again, given the competition, it’s not that great. It’s why we’ve seen Brady throw the ball 36.3 times per game, as they need to move the ball. The Redskins have allowed just one running back total more than 67 yards on the ground against them, and that was Ezekiel Elliott, who runs the ball all over most NFL teams. We did see backup Wayne Gallman step in last week and tally 118 total yards and two touchdowns, though 55 of those yards came through the air, as did one of the touchdowns. The Redskins haven’t been a bad team against the run since the start of the 2018 season, allowing a mediocre 4.47 yards per carry with 11 rushing touchdowns over a span of 20 games. They’ve also allowed just three receiving touchdowns to running backs over that span, so all-in-all, their run defense has allowed just 14 touchdowns to running backs over the last 20 games. That’s not a great stat for those looking for Michel to crank out two touchdowns. He’s a touchdown-dependent RB3 and this matchup isn’t as grand as most think. As for White, he’ll be used as a receiver more often than not, especially with Edelman seemingly less than 100 percent. He’s totaled 21 targets in the three games he’s played, which are wide receiver-type numbers, though White’s catch-rate is much higher than theirs. He should be played as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 most weeks, especially in PPR formats, and this game is no different. With Burkhead, it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach, as he played just 12 snaps last week while dealing with a foot injury.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: What a brutal way to end your career, as Peterson couldn’t even get anything going against a weak Giants defense in Week 4. He had 11 carries, so there was some opportunity to make something happen, but the lack of presence at quarterback and the horrendous offensive line amounted to just 28 yards. He’s averaging just 2.7 yards per carry on the year and the teams isn’t scoring enough to justify playing him. Dropping him makes plenty of sense, though a matchup with the Dolphins in Week 6 is waiting. He’s not an option outside of that game, and we haven’t even talked about the fact that the Patriots have yet to allow a touchdown to a running back. They’ve held opposing running backs to just 3.39 yards per carry, but they have allowed production through the air, which is where Thompson can make his mark. The 189 receiving yards they’ve allowed through four weeks ranks as the 10th most in football, and knowing the offensive line will struggle to stop the Patriots pressure, which has been at least 38.5 percent of the time three straight games, Thompson should be the safety valve. He’s now seen at least five targets in every game and 28 on the season, similar to the role James White has for the Patriots, though it’s a much lesser offense. Thompson should be able to offer RB3/flex level in this matchup as it’s unlikely Peterson totals more than 10 touches.

WRs
Josh Gordon: He’s the healthiest wide receiver they have right now, and he just happens to have one of the better matchups you can ask for against the Redskins secondary. We’re likely to see them use Josh Norman in shadow coverage, though he’s nowhere near the player he used to be. On 24 targets in coverage, he’s now allowed 241 yards and four touchdowns. Combining his numbers from last year, he’s now allowed 12 touchdowns on his last 90 targets in coverage, which is the most in the NFL during that time. After a tough matchup with Tre’Davious White last week, we should see Gordon get back on track in this game. Put him into lineups as a sturdy WR2 and expect results. He’s not someone I’d use in cash games considering he’s caught just 51.9 percent of his targets to this point, and the gamescript can get out of control rather quickly.

Julian Edelman: He played the whole game last week, though he’s clearly not 100 percent. The good news is that he’ll have another week of healing up, and there’s nothing structurally wrong with his ribs. The Redskins had Fabian Moreau back in the slot last week, but he suffered a knee injury, which means they likely have to go back to Jimmy Moreland, who has allowed 10/124/1 on 11 targets in coverage in the slot. It’s important to note that 69 yards and one touchdown of that came against DeSean Jackson back in Week 1, but it’s still noteworthy that a seventh-round rookie may have to cover Edelman. Provided he gets in a full practice or two this week, Edelman should be played as a solid, high-floor WR2. It would make sense to consider him in cash if he’s back to full practice all week, though that seems somewhat unlikely.

Phillip Dorsett: With Josh Gordon tied up with Tre’Davious White and Julian Edelman playing at less than 100 percent, Dorsett led the wide receivers with nine targets last week, though they didn’t amount to much (two catches, 10 yards). The Bills were always going to be a chore for the receivers, though the Redskins are a different story. They’ve now allowed a league-high eight touchdowns to wide receivers, as well as 9.07 yards per target, which is the 12th-highest in the league. Knowing that Josh Norman will be latched to Gordon, it means Dorsett will be matched-up with Quinton Dunbar the majority of the time. He’s been competent throughout his career, though 2018 was the low-point, as he allowed 372 yards and five touchdowns on just 44 targets in coverage. He’s been dealing with a knee injury that kept him out in Weeks 2 and 3, though he returned last week. Knowing the Patriots have averaged so many pass attempts despite blowing teams out, Dorsett has WR4 appeal, even though Gordon and Edelman have plus-matchups.

Terry McLaurin: They called McLaurin’s hamstring injury as “minor” last week, though it’s either there’s a slight tear or there’s not. It’s great they decided to play it safe. It seems like he should play this week, though reaggravating an injury like that could happen, adding an extra level of risk. There’s tons of risk to begin with, as Stephon Gilmore would likely be in shadow coverage. Regarded as the best cornerback in the league by many, Gilmore has allowed just a 59.8 QB Rating when targeted this year. The Patriots as a whole have allowed just three top-36 wide receivers this year, with none of them finishing better than WR20. That’s despite 13 wide receivers seeing five or more targets. Knowing the risk on both ends, it’s probably best to not rely on McLaurin this week. Even if he suits up, he should be considered a WR4, at best. *Update* McLaurin is being considered 50/50 to play at this point, which means he’s not 100 percent. You should be prepared to be without him. 

Paul Richardson: It may sound odd, but Richardson is someone who would benefit from McLaurin’s presence this week. It would take Stephon Gilmore away from Richardson, which is obviously a good thing. If McLaurin misses another game, I’m not entirely sure Gilmore would shadow Richardson, anyway, but he’d still see him throughout the game no matter what. No matter what, it’s not going to be easy for Richardson, as Jason McCourty, the other starting cornerback, has been straight-up relentless in coverage, too. On 26 targets in coverage, he’s allowed just 12 receptions for 120 yards and no touchdowns. Richardson has seen at least five targets in 9-of-11 games in a Redskins uniform, which is typically something to target in fantasy, but knowing his matchup combined with the quarterback situation, he’s nothing more than a WR5.

Trey Quinn: He should have had a long touchdown last week, as there wasn’t a defender within a full five yards of him, but the ball sailed another five yards over his head. There was another deep target where he gained multiple yards of separation, but again, overthrown. The Patriots mix and match cornerbacks, but typically have Jonathan Jones covering the slot. He’s allowed a ridiculously-low 43.5 percent completion-rate in his coverage this year, which is unheard of for a slot cornerback. The Bills were able to find Cole Beasley seven times for 75 yards last week, so maybe the Redskins take a page out of their playbook. Knowing how tough the matchups are for the perimeter wide receivers, Quinn has WR4/5 appeal in PPR formats, though tying yourself to the Redskins offense is always an adventure.

TEs
Ben Watson: He’s back from his four-game suspension and it should help, as the combination of Ryan Izzo and Matt LaCosse were essentially non-existent. How much will the 38-year-old be involved from the get-go? That’s a good question and one that no one has the answer to. The Redskins new safety duo of Landon Collins and Montae Nicholson have done a superb job with tight ends to this point, as they’ve had to play Zach Ertz, Jason Witten, Trey Burton, and Evan Engram, yet have allowed the 12th most points to the position. When playing against two of the top four tight ends, that number would be higher if they were a “can’t-miss” matchup. The scheme was good against tight ends last year, too, as they allowed the ninth-fewest points to the position, including the sixth-fewest points per target. It’s best to wait and see him play a full game before committing.

Jeremy Sprinkle: Not only has Jordan Reed been out since Week 3 of the preseason with a concussion, but now Vernon Davis is in the concussion protocol (he’s now been ruled out). That would lead to third-string tight end Jeremy Sprinkle being inserted into the starting lineup. He’s actually seen seven targets over the last two weeks, though they’ve netted just three catches for 39 yards. The Patriots have allowed just nine receptions to tight ends this season, as they attempt to be the No. 1 team against every position in the NFL (obviously). The 12.0 yards per target they’ve allowed to tight ends is the most in the league, but how much can we take from a 12-target sample size? Patriots opponents have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game and the targets have to go somewhere, right? Sprinkle could fill-in if you play in a league where you start two tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 47.0
Line: CIN by 3.5

QBs
Kyler Murray: Last week was the first time Murray hadn’t thrown 40 passes in a game. It was also the first time he rushed for a touchdown, salvaging what was a bad fantasy day against the Seahawks. He’s now finished in-between 16.3 and 17.8 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks, which is typically high-end QB2 territory. With the Bengals coming to town, he should be able to raise his weak 6.3 yards per attempt, as they’ve been demolished by opponents, allowing 8.83 yards per attempt, the fourth-highest mark in the league. To know they’ve allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks despite seeing an average of 27.3 pass attempts per game (lowest in the NFL) really does say something. Their opponents have yet to score fewer than 21 points and knowing the Cardinals don’t run much behind their makeshift offensive line, we could see a big game out of Murray. It also helps that the Bengals have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game (ranks second-worst). We’ve watched Murray run 12 times for 96 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks, raising his fantasy floor.  While I’ve been skeptical of the offense as a whole, you really shouldn’t be against the Bengals. Start him as a middling QB1 who could finish as the top quarterback this week. He’s safe enough to use in cash games.

Andy Dalton: In what started out as looking like a promising offense, Dalton and the Bengals have sputtered out over the last few weeks, as he’s thrown just one touchdown the two games combined, while averaging just 210.5 yards passing. It doesn’t help that they played against the Bills, who might be the second-best defense in football, and the Steelers, who were at home and desperate for a win in a divisional game. In come the Cardinals, who have allowed each quarterback they’ve played to average at least 7.4 yards per attempt. They also allow their opponents tons of plays, as the 67.5 plays per game allowed ranks as the fourth most in football. The Bengals themselves average 64.0 plays per game, so there should be plenty of opportunity for their offense to get back on track. Here are the finishes against them this year: QB4, QB2, QB6, and QB17. Some will see the QB17 and get worried, but Russell Wilson threw the ball just 28 times as the Seahawks ran away with the game. You don’t have to worry about that with Dalton, though the injury to John Ross is worrisome to the weaponry he has available to him. It was seemingly going to be a week to start him as a low-end QB1, but he should still be able to salvage a middling QB2 performance.

RBs
David Johnson: Despite the offense not fully clicking, Johnson stands as the No. 7 running back a quarter through the season, and that includes a game he missed most of with a wrist injury. He’s one of just three running backs in the top-15 who have less than 54 carries (Johnson is at 47). The Bengals should be an opponent that allows him to pick up some yardage on the ground, something that hasn’t happened since Week 1, as he’s failed to total more than 40 rushing yards in each of the last three games. Outside of the game he left early (wrist injury), he’s seen at least seven targets in each game, propping-up his fantasy floor. In a game where it’s conceivable they run 65-plus plays, Johnson is a candidate for 25 touches. His play-style will be a nightmare for the Bengals who struggle to tackle and who have allowed 78.0 PPR points to running backs through the air alone. There’s no other team in football who’s allowed more than 63.3 PPR points. Johnson is locked-and-loaded as an elite RB1 play this week.

Joe Mixon: Week 4 may not have provided the results most wanted, but there were a few good takeaways. Mixon looks great out there; he’s just surrounded by a bad team. Mixon also totaled 15-of-16 carries available, which is workhorse material and even saw five targets in the passing game. Running backs have averaged 28.5 touches per game against the Cardinals, which ranks as the eighth-most in football, so if he gets that workhorse role in this game, it should amount to another 20-touch game. The Cardinals run defense hasn’t been bad through the first four games, though some may see it trending that way. Chris Carson broke a ridiculous amount of tackles (nine, to be exact) to get over 100 yards, while Christian McCaffrey broke a 76-yard touchdown run to prop-up his numbers. Outside that run, McCaffrey totaled 77 yards on 23 carries, or 3.35 yards per carry. With the lack of talent in the secondary, running backs haven’t needed to be targeted against the Cardinals, as they’ve faced just 19 of them through four games, the third lowest in the NFL. They have, however, allowed 8.32 yards per target on those, which ranks as the fourth highest mark in the league. The high play-count and home-favorite portions with Mixon are good, though I don’t see him as a “can’t-miss” play this week. He should be in lineups as a high-end RB2, but one who may not have as high of ceiling as you think.

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: Knowing that Christian Kirk is likely going to miss time, just how many targets can Fitzgerald see in this offense? He’s been trending in the wrong direction (13-11-7-5), but he’s now caught 10 of his last 12 targets, so it appears he and Murray are getting into more of a groove. The Bengals have struggled with receivers this year, though it doesn’t show in the fantasy points per game tabs that many look at. They’ve actually allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position, but what most don’t see is that they’ve seen just 55 targets against the Bengals, by far the lowest in the league. On those 55 targets, they’ve allowed a 70.9 percent completion-rate (7th-highest), 9.82 yards per target (5th-most), and a touchdown every 13.8 targets (7th most often). All of that amounts to 2.13 PPR points per target, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league, so don’t listen to the fantasy points allowed stat. Fitzgerald is going to be in for a heavy workload, especially if the team is without Damiere Byrd and Kirk, as that would leave them with just four healthy receivers. He’s in play for cash this week and should be in season-long lineups as a sturdy WR2.

Trent Sherfield: He’s the direct replacement for Damiere Byrd, who was forced to miss last week’s game. He may have to remain out, which would make Sherfield a full-time receiver for this game. He’d see Dre Kirkpatrick most of the game, who has been tagged for three touchdowns on just 19 targets in coverage this year. He’s been an above-average cornerback for the majority of his career, but at nearly 30 years old, is he starting to decline? Does the lack of talent/scheme limit his impact? These things are possible, but knowing he’s allowed a touchdown in 3-of-4 games, Sherfield could be worth a stab in a tournament or an emergency fill-in at wide receiver if Byrd is out.

KeeSean Johnson: He’s been a part-time player in the offense this year, playing around 50 percent of the snaps, though due to injuries to Damiere Byrd and Christian Kirk, we could see a lot more of him here. Don’t forget he saw 10 targets in Week 1, though what’s not promising is that Sherfield out-snapped him last week. His lack of production may be moving him down the totem pole. He’s a dart throw but nothing more.

Tyler Boyd: It’s no secret that the Cardinals have struggled to defend the middle of the field. Not only do tight ends score a million points per game against them, but we also watched Danny Amendola tag them for 7/104/1 back in Week 1. Among the 10 touchdowns they’ve allowed, five have come from the slot, which is where Boyd runs 64 percent of his routes. With A.J. Green and John Ross out, Boyd is likely getting double-digit targets against a Cardinals team that’s allowed 1.80 PPR points per target thus far. Put Boyd into your lineups as a high-floor WR2 for this game against Tramaine Brock, who’s on his fourth team in as many years. Of the 55 cornerbacks that have played at least 25 percent of their snaps in the slot, the 136.8 QB Rating he’s allowed in his coverage is the seventh highest mark. *Update* Brock may not play this week due to a back injury, which would only add more appeal to Boyd, who will be heavily targeted. 

John Ross: He left the stadium with his arm in a sling Monday night and will miss what’s expected to be a month.

Auden Tate: The 6-foot-5, 228-pound Tate has now seen 16 targets over the last two weeks, and it seems like he’ll be Dalton’s No. 1 perimeter option against the Cardinals with John Ross ailing. Tate isn’t the quickest receiver to gain separation, but going back to his college days, he’s been wonderful in contested catch situations, allowing his quarterback to target him when one-on-one. He’ll see a mix of rookie Byron Murphy and Chris Jones in coverage. While I like Murphy as a player in this league, he may have issues trying to defend Tate, as he’s just 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds. Meanwhile, Jones is an undrafted free agent who’s played 116 snaps in his NFL career. If Dalton targets him, there are some fantasy points to be had. Knowing this game should net a lot of plays, Tate looks like he has WR4/5 appeal.

TEs
Charles Clay: Even if all of the Cardinals wide receivers got the flu and didn’t show up, there’s no way you’re playing a Cardinals tight end. Both Clay and Maxx Williams are averaging just 15 snaps per game. Not routes, snaps. They’re each averaging just over eight routes per game. Uh uh. I don’t even think you could play them against their own team, and that’s saying something.

Tyler Eifert: Death, taxes, and fantasy points to tight ends against the Cardinals. That’s what I wrote on Will Dissly‘s paragraph last week. We’ve now had four weeks of a sample size, and the Cardinals have allowed four of the top 15 tight end performances this year. It’s laughable right now, as they’ve allowed a massive 27.8 PPR points per game to tight ends, while no other team has allowed more than 19.6 PPR points per game. Many worry about C.J. Uzomah, who has actually played 38 more snaps this season, but that’s not what we’re interested in. Eifert has run 47 routes over the last two weeks while Uzomah has run just 18 routes, as he’s been kept in to block on 57 percent of his snaps, while Eifert is running routes on 81 percent of his snaps. There is a slight timeshare, which is somewhat concerning in cash lineups, but when it comes to streaming the position, it’s hard to find a better bet for production. Eifert is on the low-end TE1 radar, as are the next 11 tight ends that play the Cardinals.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 44.5
Line: BAL by 3.5

QBs
Lamar Jackson: He’s the only quarterback in football who’s now scored at least 19.0 fantasy points in each game, which included a zero-passing-touchdown game in Week 3. Jackson has rushed for 232 yards and a touchdown over the last three games, reaffirming his rushing floor/ceiling is still intact. Now headed out to face their divisional rival Steelers, who salvaged their season in Week 4 with a big win over the Bengals, Jackson looks to build on his momentum. The Steelers have played much better since the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, though it also helps that they didn’t play against Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, like they did in Weeks 1 and 2. They were able to beat up on Andy Dalton last week while sacking him eight times, though it helps that his offensive line is decimated by injuries. Meanwhile, Jackson has been sacked 10 times through four games. The Steelers have yet to play against the Jackson-led Ravens, as it was Joe Flacco in both matchups last year. The closest comp we have to Jackson from last year’s schedule is when they allowed Tyrod Taylor to rush for 77 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Divisional games always tend to be tough games, especially between these two teams, as John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have been going against each other for years. Knowing the Steelers defense looks much closer to the unit we saw last year (ranked 17th against fantasy quarterbacks) over the last two weeks while allowing one passing touchdown and just 6.49 yards per attempt, we don’t need to aggressively attack Jackson in DFS this week, though his rushing can still carry him through. He’s a player you never fully-avoid in DFS, kind of like Patrick Mahomes. Knowing he’s scored at least 21 fantasy points in each game; you’re not even thinking about sitting him in season-long leagues. It would certainly upgrade his matchup if defensive tackle Cameron Hayward can’t play, as he suffered a quad injury in Week 4.

Mason Rudolph: The Steelers gameplanned much better for Rudolph this time around, as they focused around a bunch of short passes to give him some confidence, though playing the Bengals helps. He threw just three passes that went over 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, with one of them being a long touchdown to Diontae Johnson. Again, just five of his completions went beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage, so he’s dinking-and-dunking. The Ravens pass-rush has been trending in the wrong direction, as they’ve pressured the opposing quarterback just 28.9 percent of the time over the last three weeks, including pressuring Mayfield just 21.9 percent of the time last week (he’d been pressured 38.0 percent of the time coming into that game). If they can get pressure to Rudolph, they’ll force some much-needed turnovers, as they’ve totaled just one over the last three games. Playing against the 49ers and Bengals was one thing, but Rudolph against the Ravens is a different game all together given the magnitude of the situation. They’ve now allowed three straight 300-yard passers, though it’s hard to say Rudolph belongs in the conversation with Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Mayfield, but we can say this isn’t the same Ravens defense of years past. Start Rudolph at your own risk, as he’s not someone you should be relying on for more than low-end QB2 production.

RBs
Mark Ingram: We continue to see somewhat of a timeshare in the Ravens backfield, though Ingram is the only one with actual fantasy value. The snap-count got even closer last week, as Ingram played 32 snaps, Gus Edwards 20, and Justice Hill 16. That’ll likely happen in negative gamescript, as we hadn’t seen the Ravens blown out like they were last week. They’re on the road for this game but are labeled as the favorites over the Steelers. Despite starting 1-3, the Steelers have still yet to allow a running back more than 79 yards on the ground. The best comp for Ingram would probably be Chris Carson, who the Steelers played in Week 2 when they held him to 61 yards on 15 carries, though he did chip-in with three receptions for 27 yards. Outside of the Dolphins and Chiefs games, Ingram has been somewhat of a bust, turning in RB30 and RB39 finishes against the Browns and Cardinals. He needs to find the end zone to live up to the RB2 name he’s made for himself. Knowing the Steelers have Rudolph under center, it’ll give the Ravens more of an opportunity to establish the run, as there’s not going to be a situation where they have to abandon the run in the early going. It’s why running backs are averaging 33.8 touches per game against the Steelers. Even if Ingram keeps seeing 54.4 percent of the running back touches for the Ravens, that would amount to 18.4 touches on these averages. Because of that, you should be trusting Ingram to get it done as a solid RB2 this week. If defensive tackle Cameron Hayward is forced to miss this game with a quad injury, Ingram deserves consideration in cash games.

James Conner and Jaylen Samuels: After dealing with a knee injury a few weeks back, Conner is now dealing with an ankle injury that will surely have him limited throughout the week, and maybe force him to miss this contest. Samuels was much more involved last week, as he totaled 18 touches (10 carries, 8 receptions) against the Bengals, which amounted to 83 total yards and a touchdown. The Ravens are a different type of matchup, though there is an X-factor that needs to be weighed in the decision to start a Steelers running back. Defensive tackle Brandon Williams was out last week with a knee injury, which allowed Nick Chubb to go on a rampage. It’s not considered too serious, so he should be back on the field this week. The Ravens have done a great job against pass-catching running backs, holding them to an NFL-best 4.47 yards per target in the passing game since the start of 2018. They allowed just 140.7 PPR points to running backs through the air last year, which ranked as the fifth-fewest in football. This year, running backs are combining to average just 20.8 touches per game against the Ravens, which is the fourth lowest mark in football. Knowing it hasn’t been a great matchup, combined with the fact that Rudolph isn’t going to carry them into scoring range very often, Conner would be just a mediocre low-end RB2 even if he does suit up. If he is forced to sit this one out, Samuels would step into his role with less of a timeshare, though he’d still be in a middling RB2 role with a mediocre ceiling, unless, of course, Williams is out again. *Update* Conner did return to practice on Friday and it appears he’ll play, though he’s still nothing more than a middling RB2. He would get an upgrade if Williams were ruled out, though he’s considered likely to play. 

WRs
Marquise Brown: It’s been a disappointing two weeks for Brown, as he’s received 16 targets, but has turned them into just six catches for 71 yards. In matchups against the Chiefs and Browns (who were without their two starting cornerbacks), that’s a blow to his startability moving forward. He’s still seen 36.1 percent of the team’s air yards, which ranks 16th among receivers, so there’s still hope. The Steelers just held speedster John Ross in check, as he caught just three balls for 36 yards, though Andy Dalton was clearly off in that game. The Steelers just played sides against him, so my guess would be that they’d do the same against Brown with help over the top. The Steelers have allowed 16 pass plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks 10th in the NFL, and it was something they kind of struggled with last year, allowing 53 such plays. In the end, though, the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety may have given this defense the boost they needed, as they’ve allowed just one passing score over the last two games with him in the lineup. Fitzpatrick was also on the field for the Dolphins when Brown had his breakout game in Week 1. Fun fact: Fitzpatrick allowed three touchdowns in his coverage that game, while allowing just one touchdown the remaining 19 games in his career. Is there something to that? Brown isn’t a must-start, but he’s also not a must-sit. Treat him as a high-end WR4 who can go off any week with the volume he’s getting.

Willie Snead: Outside of Brown, Snead is the only receiver on the Ravens playing the majority of snaps, and he’s also the only one who’s seen more than eight targets. He’s now scored two touchdowns, which is one more than he did all of last season, though his touchdown last week came in garbage time. The Steelers have struggled to defend the slot, as three of the seven passing scores they’ve allowed have come from there, though that’s also on 29 targets. Mike Hilton has flashed at times throughout his career, but he appears to be the weakest link of this secondary. Since the start of 2018, he’s allowed a 70 percent catch-rate in his coverage at 10.5 yards per reception, which is quite a bit for a slot-only cornerback. Still, Snead’s totaled just 11 targets over four games and is not on the redraft radar.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Is it time to panic on Smith-Schuster, who now has just six catches for 96 yards and one touchdown over the last two weeks combined? While that doesn’t look horrendous, it really does when you consider the fact that 76 yards and a touchdown came on one play where he made everything happen after the catch. Rudolph isn’t a very poised quarterback right now, but the fact that Johnson is taking advantage of his opportunity, it will help Smith-Schuster moving forward. The reason you shouldn’t panic too much is because Smith-Schuster’s average depth of target is 8.9 yards down the field, while Johnson’s is 9.6 yards, and Washington’s is 16.0 yards. Rudolph threw just five passes beyond 10 yards last week, though many of them just happened to go to running backs. Those could’ve easily been Smith-Schuster’s targets. The Ravens have been piecing things together in their secondary with all the injuries at cornerback, which has led to Brandon Carr and a bunch of safeties covering slot receivers. All-in-all, they’ve allowed 262 yards on 38 targets in that area of the field, which isn’t bad. They also did a good job at slowing Smith-Schuster down last year, as he totaled just 4/60/0 on 11 targets in the first meeting and then 7/78/0 on nine targets in the second meeting. Rudolph needs to get the ball in Smith-Schuster’s hands and it actually makes sense given Rudolph’s strengths, but Smith-Schuster shouldn’t be considered anything more than a middling WR2 until we see it happen.

Diontae Johnson: Through two weeks with Rudolph, Johnson has amassed 12 targets from Rudolph, and he’s had the most success when targeted, as it’s netted nine receptions for 129 yards and two touchdowns. The connection between Rudolph and Washington seems to be non-existent, while Johnson has made the most of his promotion into the starting lineup, and his skillset fits what they’re doing right now. Knowing that Washington’s average depth of target is 16.0 yards and that Rudolph attempted just five passes that went past 10 yards last week, it says it all. Johnson’s 9.6-yard average depth of target is much more attainable for the play-calling. He’ll see a lot of Marlon Humphrey and Maurice Canady in coverage this week. Humphrey has been a rock-solid cornerback on the pro level, while Canady is a former sixth-round pick who’s seen just 36 targets in coverage over his career. The Ravens have increased his playing time as of late, while Anthony Averett has seen a declining role after allowing two touchdowns on 24 targets in coverage. This is where I pump the brakes on Johnson in a much tougher matchup, as it’s easy to see Rudolph struggling in this game. He’s moving up boards but is nothing more than a WR4/5-type option this week.

TEs
Mark Andrews: Despite playing through what’s being described as a foot issue, Andrews has played in every game and he’s played extremely well. He’s seen at least seven targets in every contest and has scored in 3-of-4 games. Both Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle run routes (93 combined routes on the season), though Andrews is still the leader in the clubhouse with 104 routes. The Steelers have faced quite a few tight end targets over the last three weeks, as Will Dissly, George Kittle, and Tyler Eifert combined for 18 of them, and they’ve added up to 13 receptions for 134 yards and two touchdowns. While Dissly did most of that, the 49ers decided to run in two of their three touchdowns, limiting Kittle’s impact. The Steelers were what would be described as a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends last year, allowing eight top-12 performances against them. Andrews himself wasn’t one of them, as he totaled three catches for 50 yards, though that was with Joe Flacco under center. You’re not benching Andrews with the way he’s been playing, as he’s one of the elite must-starts every week, though the only question is whether you should be targeting him in DFS. This doesn’t feel like a cash-game worthy week, but you should have some exposure in tournaments.

Nick Vannett: Despite being with the team for a few days, Vannett outproduced JuJu Smith-Schuster in his first game as a member of the Steelers. Oh, how we love fantasy football. He only saw two targets and it’s possible that Vance McDonald comes back this week (listed as questionable), so it’s not like you’re considering him. The Ravens have allowed back-to-back 80-plus yard games to the combination of Ricky Seals-Jones and Travis Kelce, leading many to believe it’s a matchup to attack. It’s not a bad matchup, as the 2018 Ravens (with better personnel) allowed the 13th most fantasy points to the position, though the list of tight ends who performed well against them last year was top-heavy. The list of tight ends they allowed top-12 performances to included: Travis Kelce, Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, and Austin Hooper. They may not be the same unit they once were (though it’s the same scheme), but I don’t want to have to start Vannett to find out.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 44.5
Line: LAC by 6.5

QBs
Joe Flacco: Should you be playing Flacco coming off a 300-yard, three-touchdown game against the Jaguars? Well, not really. It’s not like we don’t have a 11-year sample size to go off of with Flacco. The Chargers, however, are not a defensive opponent to be worried about anymore. They lost all but one starter from their secondary to injuries and it was reported this week that pass-rusher Melvin Ingram will miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury. These injuries have piled up to the point where Josh Rosen was even able to average 7.5 yards per attempt against them last week. He was the first quarterback to not finish top-18 against them, but he threw the ball just 24 times due to the Chargers playing keep-away. There were just six times the Chargers allowed multiple touchdown passes last year. They’ve already allowed 3-of-4 quarterbacks to hit that mark despite seeing the third-fewest pass attempts against them. Game pace is a real problem against the Chargers, as teams average an NFL-low 55.5 plays per game against them. Knowing the Broncos have 148 pass attempts to 96 rush attempts, we could be looking at 28-32 pass attempts for Flacco, though efficiency should be decent. He can be used in 2QB leagues with a bit of confidence, but he’s not someone to trust as a streamer in standard formats.

Philip Rivers: Not only were the Broncos struggling to get a pass-rush until Week 4 (had no sacks the first three weeks), but they just lost one of their best players on the defensive line. Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL, which is not going to help them get any better. Despite some problems on his own offensive line, Rivers has played great under pressure this year, boasting a 107.0 QB Rating, which ranks second in the league. The Broncos secondary hasn’t really been the problem with the team, as they’ve held opposing quarterbacks to just 7.19 yards per attempt and a 3.48 percent touchdown-rate, which are both below average. They’ve also faced just 28.8 attempts per game, which is tied for the second fewest in the league. Gardner Minshew was actually the first quarterback to hit 30 attempts against them in Week 4, though he only made it to 33 attempts. He was also the first quarterback to finish top-20 against the Broncos, as most teams will run the ball a ton. Rivers has been efficient and will likely be again, but you have to wonder about his ceiling in a game between two teams that have ridiculously slow paces. Rivers should be considered a middling-to-high-end QB2 with a lack of top-five upside.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman: Through four weeks, Lindsay is on pace for 268 touches, while Freeman is holding steady with a pace of 224 touches. That’s not great for fantasy considering they limit each other’s upside, especially when they’re heading into a game against the Chargers, who have faced just 24.3 running back touches per game. Not just that, but they’ve allowed just three running back touchdowns through four weeks, which again, makes it difficult to project a clear-cut beneficiary of this backfield. The loss of Melvin Ingram surely won’t help the Chargers run defense, as they allowed 4.82 yards per carry when he was off the field last year compared to the 4.22 yards per carry when he was on the field. Sure, he’s a pass rusher, but he’s been one of the better edge defenders against the run as well. The only running back to get more than 12 touches against the Chargers was Marlon Mack in Week 1 when he tallied 174 yards and a touchdown. It all comes down to gamescript, because if the Broncos can not fall behind, they should run the ball effectively on the Chargers. Knowing that Lindsay has a 30-21 edge in carries over the last two weeks, he gets the nod as the high-end RB3 of choice. Freeman is still an option for those in need of a flex-option, too, though both of these guys have a worrisome floor if the Chargers jump out to an early lead.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: The Chargers told us last week that Gordon would be an emergency-only running back in Week 4. That held true. Head Coach Anthony Lynn also told us that Gordon would go right back into his lead role if/when he was good to go. There’s really no reason to doubt him at this point. Ekeler was very effective in his role the last two years, though it didn’t lead to more touches. If anything, Gordon would just have a shorter leash when it comes to workhorse duties. Against the Broncos, there should be no issue with Gordon’s performance. After losing defensive end Bradley Chubb last week, their defense is in a bad place. They brought pressure to Gardner Minshew last week, but that left them hollow against the run, allowing Leonard Fournette to run for 225 yards. The Broncos have now allowed a top-18 running back in every game, including two top-30 running backs in each of the last two games. There are plenty of touches to go around, as running backs have averaged 30.3 touches per game against the Broncos. The six touchdowns they’ve allowed ranks as fourth-most. The Chargers could decide to ease Gordon back into action a la the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott, but there’s room for two this week. Consider Gordon a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 who may not have as high of ceiling as usual, while Ekeler remains in the high-end RB3 conversation. *Update* Lynn said they’re going to “ease Gordon back in” this week, creating a level of concern about playing him as a surefire RB1. In fact, Ekeler may be the safer start, though both should be considered high-end RB3s at worst.

WRs
Emmanuel Sanders: Apparently Sanders is dealing with a quad injury of some sort, though it’s not expected to be serious. Still, we’ll pay attention later in the week. The Chargers are shorthanded in the secondary, as Casey Hayward is the only starter that remains. Because of that, they’ve allowed a 76.8 percent completion-rate to wide receivers through four weeks, which ranks as the second highest in the NFL, and is much higher than the 62.1 percent they allowed last year. And it’s not like they’ve played tough opponents every week, as the Dolphins and Colts receiver groups are 50 percent of their sample. Outside of the one game where he saw just five targets against the Packers, Sanders has seen at least seven targets, as well as totaled at least five receptions and 86 yards in every game. Oddly enough, the Chargers have allowed a top-15 wide receiver in 3-of-4 games with the only exception being the Texans game, though they did have three top-50 wide receivers. Provided Sanders’ quad is okay, he needs to be in lineups as a WR3 more often than not. Sutton making a name for himself may be a good thing for Sanders, as it would mean Hayward is unlikely to shadow.

Courtland Sutton: He’s looked good through four weeks, which is not something I’d find myself saying. He’s taking advantage of his opportunity, and Flacco is starting to gravitate towards him. He has just three fewer targets and one fewer reception than Sanders, but now has 11 more yards and equal touchdowns. He’s seen at least seven targets in each game, which bodes well for his consistency, too. The Chargers have been struggling to slow down volume-heavy receivers, as there have been five receivers who’ve seen at least seven targets against them. Here are their finishes: WR6, WR6, WR39, WR48, WR42. So, we’re talking a floor of WR4 territory here and a ceiling of much more if Flacco can remain hot. If Sanders is really ailing with a quad injury, we could see a bigger role for Sutton, though if Sanders missed the game, it would also mean shadow coverage from Casey Hayward. Sutton is creeping into he low-end WR3 conversation with how top-heavy this offense is.

DaeSean Hamilton: If there’s one spot that’s a no-fly zone on the Chargers defense the last few years, it’s been the slot, as Desmond King has been among the best slot corners in football. The injuries piling up behind him have clearly limited his effectiveness, as he’s one of just two cornerbacks who’ve seen at least 10 targets in coverage and have allowed a perfect 158.3 QB Rating. He’s allowed two touchdowns on just 11 targets after allowing just three touchdowns on 91 targets in coverage last year. He’d allowed just 8.5 yards per reception over the first 150 targets of his career, but in 2019, it’s been 18.4 yards per reception. It’s tough to say Hamilton is fantasy viable as the clear-cut third option on his team, but this matchup has been getting better. After a zero-target game in Week 3, Hamilton bounced back with five targets in Week 4, but it does showcase his floor. Because of that, he’s just a WR6-type option.

Keenan Allen: Our worst fears were realized with Allen last week when the Chargers didn’t keep their foot on the pedal, but rather drained the clock. It led to a season-low six targets for Allen, though he’s still the top fantasy receiver a quarter through the season. Knowing that Dontrelle Inman is going to injured reserve and that Mike Williams is ailing, he should continue to see high volume in competitive games. He’s going to go toe-to-toe with Chris Harris Jr. this week, a cornerback who will move into the slot with him, as that’s where Harris played for the majority of his career. Allen has played him plenty of times over his career, including four times over the last two years. While Allen never saw less than seven targets, he also never totaled more than 89 yards. He did score twice in those four games, which is far more than most can say against Harris, so it’s not a complete avoid scenario. Over those four games, Allen saw 36 targets and turned them into 21/229/2. Those aren’t WR1 numbers, so feel free to avoid exposure to Allen in DFS, particularly cash games. He’s going to be in season-long lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, but just temper expectations this week.

Mike Williams: It seems like the Chargers may have held out Williams to get him right while they had their first bye week of the year (sorry, Dolphins fans). We’ll pay attention to his practice participation throughout the week, but the Chargers could use him now that Dontrelle Inman is likely headed to injured reserve. The Broncos benched Isaac Yiadom after his painfully brutal start to the season for career-backup De’Vante Bausby, who has now seen 44 targets in his professional career, which started in 2015. On those targets, he’s allowed 34 receptions for 438 yards and three touchdowns. He did break-up a pass in the end zone last week, but he’s not physically equipped to handle Williams, if he is in fact healthy. With Chris Harris Jr. locked on Allen, this could be Williams’ chance to get back on the radar. Provided he practices in full by the end of the week, he has WR3 startability in this game.

TEs
Noah Fant: The Broncos really want Fant to become a thing and he did score his first touchdown last week on a quick screen pass that he took 25 yards for the touchdown. He’s not getting elite volume and has maxed out at just four targets in a game, but he’s constantly on the field. Outside of the hiccup to Jordan Akins in Week 3 when they allowed him three catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns, the Chargers have held every other starting tight end to less than 10 yards, which included Eric Ebron and T.J. Hockenson. Knowing how good the matchups are for the Broncos wide receivers, Fant doesn’t need to be heavily involved, and it doesn’t help that Chargers opponents average just 55.5 plays per game. He’s nothing more than a big-play hopeful TE2.

Lance Kendricks: With both Hunter Henry and Virgil Green out of the lineup, Kendricks and Culkin split the snaps, though Culkin was injured and is now done for the year. While it clears out a lot of opportunity, the Chargers are not the team that heavily targets tight ends like they used to, as all the tight ends on the roster have combined for 15 targets through four games. There are 15 tight ends who have more than that alone. If Green were forced to miss this game, that’s when you want to maybe take a look at Kendricks. The list of tight ends the Broncos have played is somewhat laughable, which is why strength of schedule without context doesn’t make any sense. Despite playing against Darren Waller (he’s good), Adam Shaheen, Marcedes Lewis, and James O’Shaughnessy, they’ve allowed the 15th most fantasy points to tight ends. All of their marks across the board are solid when it comes to completion-rate, yards per target, and touchdown-rate, but again, competition will dictate that on a four-game sample size. Kendricks actually fits in with that group, but we can’t ignore opportunity at tight end. If Green misses this game, Kendricks is squarely on the TE2 radar.