The Primer: Week 5 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Total: 45.0
Line: MIN by 4.5

QBs
Kirk Cousins: It’s pretty remarkable that due to a bad Cousins game at Chicago (the best defense in football) and a blowout Giants win versus the Redskins (bottom-three team) last week that we have the Vikings favored by just 4.5 points, but that’s the world we live in. The Giants got their act together against Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, and the bandits, though they were also without their top two receiving options in McLaurin and Jordan Reed. It was a step in the right direction for the Giants defense who had allowed 1,038 passing yards and eight touchdowns over the first three weeks, but again, it’s the Redskins. The Vikings haven’t had much to brag about themselves, but if they want to instill some confidence in Cousins, this is where they have to do it. The best part is that the Giants appear equipped to at least throw some points on the board. Many have buried Cousins for a slow start, and he hasn’t looked good, but looking at his schedule, it’s been a rough one. He did exactly what he should’ve against the Falcons (8-of-10 for 98 yards and a touchdown) given the blowout, then played a ferocious Packers pass-rush that got to him on 66 percent (!!) of his dropbacks, then played well against the Raiders (15-of-21 for 174 yards and a touchdown) in another blowout, and then was horrible against the Bears who got pressure to him on 41 percent of his dropbacks. Now to play a defense that’s generated pressure less than 30 percent of the time? Call me crazy, but Cousins has the look of a rock-solid streaming option and one who should be approached as a low-end QB1. He shouldn’t be started over guys who continually post top-eight numbers, but he should come with a high floor in this game.

Daniel Jones: His Week 4 performance wasn’t anywhere close to his starting debut, though there were still some positives to take away from the game. He completed 73 percent of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt and rushed for 33 yards, giving us more of a reason to trust his fantasy floor. His 66 rushing yards already ranks ninth among quarterbacks. He’s going to be running for his life in Week 5, as the Vikings defense is going to be hungry after losing to the Bears last week. They have been a bit up-and-down when it comes to pressuring the opposing quarterback, but their overall 39.0 pressure-rate is still well above league average (33 percent). Both of Jones’ interceptions last week came while he was under pressure. He will get Golden Tate added to the stable of pass-catchers this week, which will certainly help, but the Vikings are still not a matchup to target with streamers in general. Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers both finished outside the top-12 in their matchups against the Vikings, which doesn’t bode well for Jones. The Vikings have allowed two passing touchdowns in three of their four games, though it doesn’t matter all that much when they’re limiting quarterbacks to just 6.52 yards per attempt, which ranks seventh in the NFL. If there’s a hope for Jones’ floor, it’s that the Vikings have allowed five quarterbacks to rush for 24 yards or more over their last 18 games. Jones isn’t an ideal streaming option this week and should be approached as a low-end QB2.

RBs
Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison: Not that there’s a bad week to play the Giants, but if there’s an even better time to run into them, it’s now. Starting linebacker Ryan Connelly tore his ACL last week and is out for the year, which adds to the already existing hamstring injury to Alec Ogletree who was out in Week 4. The Giants haven’t allowed massive numbers to running backs to this point, though this is the point where it’s such a small sample size, you have to look at the competition. The Giants have played Ezekiel Elliott (his first action back from Cabo with no preseason work), Frank Gore, Ronald Jones, and Adrian Peterson, so it’s not as if the competition has been top-notch. Add in the injuries to two starting linebackers and it’s the recipe for a big bounce-back game from Cook. He should provide a stable floor, as the Vikings aren’t going to have Cousins drop-back 40-plus times, so we should be looking at 25-30 carries for the Vikings backfield. If Ogletree is out, Cook should be played in cash games as he’s a locked-and-loaded RB1. Even if Ogletree plays (he’s been ruled out), Cook should be at/near the top of the running back performances this week. If the Vikings walk in there and blow out the Giants like we would’ve expected them to two weeks ago, we could see Mattison offer some value at the end of the game, though he’s just an emergency RB4-type play.

Wayne Gallman: He was a great addition for one week, but now that he balled-out, many believe he’s a must-start. The Vikings defense has held all but one running back to less than 53 yards this year, and going back to last year, they held all but five running backs to 63 yards or less. The reason Gallman has value in this game is due to his great usage in the passing game where he saw seven targets in his first start, catching six of them for 55 yards and a touchdown. There were five running backs who totaled at least 56 yards through the air against the Vikings last year, and knowing how much pressure the Vikings bring, Jones will need an outlet. It’s not a great matchup and he’s not a must-start like he was last week, but he should be able to hold steady as a high-end RB3 with solid volume in this game.

WRs
Stefon Diggs: As expected, Diggs played well against the Bears cornerbacks last week, hauling in all seven of his targets for 108 yards. In games where Cousins has thrown the ball more than 21 times, Diggs has finished with respectable stats. The Giants have faced an average of just 31.8 pass attempts per game, but that’s been enough to support the seventh-most points to quarterbacks and the fifth-most points to wide receivers. The Giants are unlikely to shadow either Diggs or Thielen in this game, not because they don’t know who’d hurt them more, but because Janoris Jenkins‘ shadow days are over. He’s already allowed three touchdowns on 30 targets in coverage this year, along with 297 yards. He does have two interceptions, but he hasn’t been someone quarterbacks should shy away from. Meanwhile, the other starting cornerback, DeAndre Baker, has allowed a 155.8 QB Rating when targeted. The only concern is that the Vikings don’t have to throw a whole bunch in this game, but as evidenced by the stats, it doesn’t take a whole lot of targets to produce. Diggs should be in lineups as a solid WR2 this week. *Update* Mike Zimmer said “we’ll see” when asked if Diggs will play this week after missing practice for personal reasons. I’m assuming he plays, but pay attention to the inactive list on Sunday morning. 

Adam Thielen: When combing through the research on Thielen last week, I noticed something rather significant. He’s run just 28 percent of his routes from the slot in this new offense, which is a major downgrade from the 57 percent of routes he was there last year. While in the slot last year, he totaled 68 receptions for 712 yards and seven touchdowns on 86 targets, which amounts to 2.11 PPR points per target in the slot. On the perimeter, he totaled 45 receptions for 661 yards and three touchdowns on 69 targets, which amounts to 1.87 PPR points per target, a 11.5 percent difference. This could be a problem for not only Thielen, but Cousins too. Thielen’s average depth of target was just 9.5 yards in 2018 but it sits at 13.4 yards in 2019. They have him playing a different role, which hasn’t really worked for either of them. Will it change? Seems unlikely, though it may not matter against the Giants who are allowing a league-high 10.84 yards per target to wide receivers. Thielen will likely see a lot of rookie DeAndre Baker in coverage, who’s allowed a nearly perfect 155.8 QB Rating in his coverage. Put Thielen into your lineups as a WR2, though you may want to sell high if he has a big game.

Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate: After two games with Daniel Jones, Shepard has seen 18 targets that have amounted to 14 receptions, 176 yards, and a touchdown. It’s clear the two have a connection, but is that disrupted in Week 5 with the return of Tate? We don’t know how the Giants will deploy the receivers, as Shepard has run 80 percent of his routes from the slot. This isn’t the Kliff Kingsbury offense, so we aren’t going to see multiple slot receivers all the time, which means one of Shepard or Tate will have to go to the perimeter. Based on a study I did this offseason, Shepard and Tate are two of the most reliant players on slot targets, as Shepard ranked 49th of 66 receivers who qualified in non-slot performance, while Tate ranked 55th of 66 receivers in that study. Why mess with something that works, right? You’d think so, but my guess is that Shepard moves to a perimeter role being the younger player. The one important note is that Shepard has scored each of his 15 career touchdowns from the slot. The Vikings have surprisingly allowed a 76.6 percent completion-rate to wide receivers, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, though the 7.90 yards per target is below average, so it’s a lot of underneath stuff they’re allowing. Shepard has to be lowered down the rankings considering the risk of him moving outside and facing Xavier Rhodes, though the same can be said about Tate. I’ll give Shepard the WR3 nod, though I don’t feel nearly as confident in him as I’ve been the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Tate should be treated as a WR4 until we see his role in the offense, though his skillset would make sense against the Vikings.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: Here are a few tight ends with more targets than Rudolph, the guy the Vikings felt the need to extend to a four-year, $36 million contract this offseason: Rhett Ellison, Adam Shaheen, Marcedes Lewis, Jeremy Sprinkle, and Darren Fells. As Mike Clay pointed out on Twitter this week, even his teammate, the fullback C.J. Ham has more targets than him. It seems that we’re closer than ever to Irv Smith Jr. taking over for him as a starter, as Smith ran just six fewer routes in Week 4. The Giants have yet to allow a tight end finish better than the No. 15 option against them this year, which is a departure from last year when they allowed eight such performances to the position. They have a new safety duo with Jabrill Peppers and Antoine Bethea, so that could be a big part of the change, though the horrendous play of the cornerbacks is likely a bigger factor, as receivers can be targeted confidently. Whatever the case, you’re not playing a Vikings tight end any time soon, and this matchup is no reason to think they’re good to target in a tournament, either.

Evan Engram: With another weapon added to the offense, you have to wonder who loses some of their target upside, though I hesitate to think Engram loses much with Golden Tate returning. Engram has seen at least seven targets in each game and has proven to be an asset to Daniel Jones, tallying 10 receptions for 167 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Since the start of 2018, the Vikings have now played against eight tight ends who saw at least six targets. Here are the results of those games:

Knowing that Engram has been locked into his seven targets is massive for this matchup. With all the uncertainty surrounding the roles of Shepard and Tate, forget both of them in DFS and play Engram. He should be safe enough for cash lineups if you have the funds available.

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44.5
Line: PHI by 14.0

QBs
Luke Falk: It seems like we’ll have another week of Falk, as Sam Darnold‘s test results didn’t come back as good as the team had hoped. That leaves Falk as the starting quarterback walking into Philadelphia. He’s now thrown 47 passes in the NFL, though he’s yet to throw for 300 yards, and has yet to throw a touchdown. The Eagles defense has been gutted and looks horrendous against the pass, but there’s no way you can play Falk confidently. The Eagles will have had 10 days to prepare for the matchup and just held Matthew Stafford to just 201 yards and a touchdown the last time they played in Philadelphia. Falk’s team implied total is just over 15 points, hardly enough to feel confident, even in 2QB formats. There were two backup quarterbacks who played against the Eagles last year (Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson), and they both finished with less than five fantasy points. You don’t want to trust Falk, even in what looks like a plus matchup.

Carson Wentz: It’s been impressive to watch Wentz throw five touchdowns and no interceptions in the two games without DeSean Jackson, though it’s now been three straight weeks where he’s completed less than 60 percent of his throws. In one aspect, it’s refreshing to see a quarterback willing to take chances, as almost every quarterback seems to be completing 65-plus percent of their passes. On the flip side, Wentz’s yardage numbers have suffered because of the lack of check-down passes. The Jets have allowed three straight top-18 performances to start the season, but they also haven’t allowed a quarterback to reach the top-10, which includes Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Allen. The Jets are going to be healthy after their bye week and will get back both linebacker C.J. Mosley and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams on the front-seven, which will increase the pressure to Wentz, though him getting Jackson back should help more than anything. The issue in this game is competition, as the Eagles are 14-point favorites and aren’t likely to throw the ball more than 30 times, especially with Falk under center for the Jets. We’ve seen Wentz perform much more efficiently at home over the course of his career, so despite the blowout concerns, he offers a solid floor in this game as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2, though I’d avoid in tournaments.

RBs
Le’Veon Bell: Coming off their bye week, Bell should be as fresh, though his reward is an Eagles defensive front that’s held the combination of Derrius Guice, Devonta Freeman, Kerryon Johnson, and Aaron Jones to just 97 yards on 54 carries this year. That’s a flat-out stupid 1.80 yards per carry. In games outside their contests with the Eagles, those same running backs have combined to total 524 yards on 136 carries, which amounts to an average of 3.85 yards per carry. There were just four teams of running backs who totaled more than 100 rushing yards against the Eagles in Philadelphia last year with three of them being Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey, while the other was Adrian Peterson, who totaled almost all of his yards on one carry. There were, however, a ridiculous eight running backs who accumulated six or more receptions against the Eagles last year, including six of them who went for more than 50 yards. Through four games in 2019, they’ve already allowed two running backs to hit that six-reception mark. Despite not allowing a receiving touchdown yet, they’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points through the air to running backs. Bell is going to rack up the touches regardless of gamescript, though we know how this one will go, right? He’ll make his living in the passing game, as this matchup isn’t as daunting as the one against the Patriots game before their bye week. He should be considered a high-end RB2, particularly in PPR formats, though this isn’t a week to play him in DFS. If you really wanted to, cash games are your best bet, as his scoring ceiling isn’t high enough for tournaments.

Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard: We’ve watched Howard’s role grow as the season’s gone on, though he’s still maxed out at just 33 snaps (what he played in Week 4). After scoring three touchdowns in a big win on the road, did that earn him more snaps moving forward? His snaps have had a reverse effect on Sanders’ snaps, as he’s gone 36-34-25-22 over the four weeks. The good news for both of them is that Darren Sproles appears to be an afterthought after totaling 12 touches in Week 1, as he’s garnered just four touches over the last three weeks. The two fumbles in Week 3 surely didn’t help Sanders’ cause, nor did Howard’s performance against the Packers. The Jets run defense has been pretty solid despite their injuries to linebackers Avery Williamson (out for the year) and C.J. Mosley (missed two weeks), as well as the injury to first-round pick Quinnen Williams, that’s had him miss two games. Through three games, they’ve allowed just 3.72 yards per carry, which included holding Nick Chubb to 62 yards on 18 carries and Sony Michel to 11 yards on nine carries, though they both did find their way into the end zone. This is not a matchup that’s likely to net two useful running back performances, so which way do you lean considering the recent surge in Howard’s performance? While many are waiting on a Sanders breakout, they may have to wait a little bit longer until we see those snaps move in the right direction. Howard has low-end RB3 appeal in this matchup, especially considering he saw all four of the running back targets last week. Sanders should be looked at as a high-end RB4 who could break out at any time, though there’s little reason to think it happens this week.

WRs
Robby Anderson: After dealing with horrendous matchups the first three weeks, Anderson finally gets a matchup where he should be considered. The Eagles secondary has been brutal through four games, allowing at least one top-15 wide receiver in every game they’ve played. There have been seven receivers who’ve racked-up 13.3 or more PPR points against them. Ronald Darby is their “best” cornerback though even he has been abused in coverage this year and was forced to miss their Week 4 game with a hamstring injury. It seems like a long-shot for him to play this week (he’s out), and the combination of Rasul Douglas, Malcolm Jenkins, and Avonte Maddox was run over by Davante Adams and the Packers wide receivers last week, though Maddox suffered an injury (he’s out), as did Sidney Jones (he’s questionable). The trio of Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Geronimo Allison combined for 16 receptions, 279 yards, and a touchdown against them. Knowing they’ve allowed at least one receiver to total 100 yards in every contest, Anderson is the logical choice here on the Jets. It does sting with Falk under center, but Anderson should be in consideration for a WR3 start this week and a sneaky tournament option. The Eagles could legitimately be down their top four cornerbacks for this game.

Jamison Crowder: After his massive debut in a Jets uniform that netted 14 receptions for 99 yards, Crowder hasn’t had the same chemistry with the backup quarterbacks as he had with Sam Darnold, as he’s totaled just six catches for 65 scoreless yards over the last two games. The Eagles were forced to move safety Malcolm Jenkins down to slot cornerback last week, as the injuries have piled up. As of the time writing this, they might not have their starting slot cornerback on the roster, though Jenkins isn’t the worst solution. He’s allowed just 9-of-14 passing for 71 scoreless yards in his coverage this year, though much of that has come while playing safety. There is a chance for Crowder to rack up some catches while being mismatched with a safety or backup cornerback, though the connection with Falk hasn’t been there, making it difficult to trust him as anything more than a risky WR4 in PPR formats.

Alshon Jeffery: It was good to see Jeffery out there as a full-time player in his first game back, as he played 50-of-62 possible snaps and was targeted a team-high nine times, though it only netted three receptions for 38 yards and a touchdown. It was a brutal matchup with Jaire Alexander, but it’s worth noting that Kevin King was also in coverage at times, too. The Jets matchup isn’t quite as daunting, as they’re starting Nate Hairston and Darryl Roberts on the perimeter, a duo that’s combined to allow 25-of-37 passing for 343 yards and two touchdowns in coverage this year. The Jets benched high-priced Trumaine Johnson after Week 1 and judging by the statements from the Jets DB coach, he’s not making it back into the starting lineup quite yet. This allows for a big opportunity with Jeffery, as he’ll see plenty of one-on-one coverage with Jamal Adams occupied with Zach Ertz. Jeffery should be placed into lineups as a solid WR2 who can pay off in a big way.

DeSean Jackson: It appears unlikely that Jackson will be available for this game as of right now, though I’ll come back and update this section if he moves in the right direction.

Nelson Agholor: It was quite odd to see the Eagles target Agholor just once against the Packers, but we have to move on considering the Eagles appear to be without DeSean Jackson again this week. The Jets have done a good job against the run and absolutely destroy tight ends, so the targets have to go somewhere, right? Brian Poole has taken over slot duties for them and he’s been the least of their concerns through three games, allowing just 36 yards on 16 targets in coverage. This is well above the player we saw in Atlanta, who allowed a QB Rating over 100 in his three years there. Is it a flash in the pan? Does the defensive scheme make him that much better? Maybe it’s a bit of both, but knowing his three opponents were Cole Beasley, Jarvis Landry, and Julian Edelman, we have to lean towards the scheme allowing him to perform. Because of that, we have to downgrade Agholor, though he can still be in line for a bounce-back game. Understanding the matchups available, Jeffery should be the primary beneficiary, while Agholor is second in line. Consider him a risky WR4-type option.

TEs
Ryan Griffin: Welcome back from your bye, Mr. Griffin. Oh, and you’ll be going against an Eagles team that’s ranked as the best defense in the league against tight ends over the last three years. We did see Jimmy Graham rediscover the fountain of youth last week when he totaled six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown against them, though the Eagles secondary was shifted around quite a bit with all of the injuries they suffered at cornerback, including moving their cover safety Malcolm Jenkins down to slot cornerback. Over the last two games, the combination of Trevor Siemian and Falk have combined to target tight ends just twice. I’m unwilling to say the Eagles are suddenly a great matchup for tight ends because of one bad week. Carry on.

Zach Ertz: He’s still failed to find the end zone through four games, but seeing 38 targets is always a good sign, as it puts him on pace for 152 targets on the season, which is right around what he saw last year (156). The issue with expecting that touchdown to come this week is Jamal Adams, one of the best safeties in the game. Over the last 19 games combined (since the start of the 2018 season), the Jets and Adams have combined to allow just 51 receptions, 617 yards, and five touchdowns to the position, which amounts to just 32.5 yards per game and 0.26 touchdowns. Granted, Ertz is much better than your average tight end, but knowing they’ve allowed just three top-15 performances to the position since the start of last year, it’s not a matchup to get excited about, particularly for DFS. You’re still plugging him in as a high-floor TE1 in season-long leagues, but you shouldn’t be expecting big results.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers

Total: 41.0
Line: CAR by 3.5

QBs
Gardner Minshew: Through four weeks, it’s fair to say Minshew can hold his own in the NFL. He’s now on pace for 3,620 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 328 rushing yards. That would have been enough for the No. 15 fantasy quarterback in 2018, which feels about right for him. The Jaguars are still a run-first team and it’s limited his pass attempts to just 30.3 attempts per game. We do need to address the fact that his completion percentage has dipped each week, going 88-70-67-58 over the four games he’s played. After being sacked five times in the Denver game against a defense that had zero sacks coming into that game, you have to be concerned about Minshew heading out onto the road to Carolina to play a Panthers defense that’s tied for the league-lead with 18 sacks, including 14 over the last two weeks. Because of that, oddsmakers have set the Jaguars team total at just 18.5 points, which is not ideal for a streaming quarterback. Despite playing against Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson, the Panthers have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than 208 yards against them and have allowed just four passing touchdowns through four games. The Panthers allowed Murray to rush for 69 yards against them, though he was the second quarterback to rush for more than 27 yards against the Panthers since the start of last year, so it’s not as if Minshew is a good bet for rushing production, either. He should be considered just a low-end QB2 this week and not one who should be used in DFS.

Kyle Allen: What a difference a week can make, eh? After throwing four touchdowns against the Cardinals, Allen went touchdown-less against the Texans, a defense that had allowed five passing touchdowns in their first three games, including two 300-yard performances. It wasn’t just his lack of passing last week, either, as Allen fumbled the ball three times against them. Returning home is nice, but to play the Jaguars is not so nice. They were without Jalen Ramsey last week and it showed, as they allowed Joe Flacco 300 yards and three touchdowns through the air. With Ramsey, over 51 career games, they’ve allowed that performance just once, and it was against Patrick Mahomes. If Ramsey’s out there, they’re a shutdown unit. If he’s not, they’re clearly beatable. It’s going to be difficult to know if he’s playing this week, as there’s been a lot of smoke that’s allowed him to evade practices/games. If he misses this game, the matchup goes from unplayable to someone you can consider, though it’s still not a great matchup with a projected total of just 41.0 points, one of the lower marks on the slate. The Jaguars have now allowed three 300-yard games this year, that includes Marcus Mariota and Flacco. The majority of damage, however, was against Mahomes (three touchdowns) and against Flacco (without Ramsey). It’s going to be tough to trust Allen regardless, but if Ramsey plays, you shouldn’t trust Allen even in 2QB formats. If Ramsey sits, Allen should be able to at least deliver low-end QB2 numbers. *Update* Ramsey will be out for this game, making Allen a bit safer for those in 2QB leagues, though he’s still not a recommended streamer in standard formats. 

RBs
Leonard Fournette: What a difference a week can make, huh? Fournette had a running start against the Broncos and he made them pay. If you allow him to get his wheels spinning, he’s difficult to slow down. He’s now totaled at least 17 touches in all four games, though he’s failed to score. Eventually, Minshew’s touchdown-rate will drop and Fournette will capitalize. Since the post-merger era, Fournette’s 225 rushing yards ranks as the third-most in a game without a touchdown. The Panthers have faced more than 18 rushing attempts just twice, and in those two games, we watched the Rams and Bucs running backs combine for 241 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. They’ve allowed a top-15 running back in three of their four games, with the Texans duo of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson finishing as the RB31 and RB34, respectively. The Jaguars did choose to involve Ryquell Armstead a bit more last week (nine touches), though Fournette still amassed 78 percent of the touches, and it may have helped his efficiency. Knowing the Panthers have allowed close to 4.70 yards per carry over the last two years combined, Fournette should be locked into lineups as a low-end RB1. *Update* It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Panthers are without defensive tackle Kawaan Short, who was placed on injured reserve this week, and may be without defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who’s listed as questionable with a knee injury. 

Christian McCaffrey: He’s the best in the game right now, bar none. There was a moment last week when McCaffrey made a diving one-handed catch that may have netted just five yards or so, but it also netted a first down for the offense. The announcer said it was a bit of luck, skill, and athleticism. He was wrong. There was no luck on that play, only McCaffrey making a play that no other running back would’ve. Despite the offense scoring just 16 points last week, McCaffrey turned in the No. 2 running back performance of the week. The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs but part of that comes from the lack of touches for running backs against them, as opposing backs have averaged just 25.0 touches per game. Even if that were the case with the Panthers, McCaffrey handles 95 percent of them, so we’d take it. There have been just eight running backs who’ve totaled 19 or more touches against the Jaguars since the start of 2018, and all but two of them have finished as top-24 options against the Jaguars tough defense. Those two running backs were Carlos Hyde and Adrian Peterson, who are not anywhere comparable to the three-down back McCaffrey is. You’re never benching him, so it doesn’t make a difference in redraft leagues. It may be a week to fade him a bit in tournaments, though, as the Jaguars have allowed just one running back to finish better than the RB10 over their last 20 games, and that was Derrick Henry in that Week 14 game last year where they appeared to simply give up.

WRs
D.J. Chark: If you were to look at Chark’s boxscore from last week, you might think he had his first “dud” performance. He did by that standard but what you don’t see is a brilliant touchdown that he hauled in but was called back due to a penalty. He’s become the favorite target of Minshew and for good reason. The Panthers are likely going to have James Bradberry shadow him, which is something that’s been very bad for opposing wide receivers. On 17 targets in coverage, he’s allowed a grand total of 96 yards. Keep in mind that’s while handling the opponent’s top receiver. Just last week, he held Deandre Hopkins to just five catches for 41 yards on eight targets. This is one of the downsides to playing so well; that teams will shift focus towards you. Because of that, we have to approach with caution this week. Chark is still in the WR3 conversation with how well he’s been playing but it’s going to take more than a few targets to get to Bradberry. He’s not someone you should be considering for cash games, though. *Update* With Donte Jackson being ruled out, it’s possible the Panthers don’t shadow Chark, making him slightly more attractive. 

Dede Westbrook: If there’s someone who’ll benefit from this matchup with the Panthers, it’s Westbrook. They’ve allowed 62 receptions to wide receivers, which is the second most in the league, but at just 9.06 yards per reception, which is the lowest mark in the league. The area you can attack is the middle of the field in the slot, as they have 2016 undrafted free agent Javien Elliott filling that role. He’s allowed 7-of-8 passing in his coverage, though it’s only been for 67 yards. Still, it’s the best matchup on the field for the Jaguars receivers. They do play quite a bit of zone underneath, which has allowed Cooper Kupp to total 7/46/0, Chris Godwin 8/121/1, and Larry Fitzgerald 5/36/1, so there’s production out of the slot. Not that Westbrook is in that conversation of receivers, but he has seen at least five targets in every game, including nine of them in Week 3. Knowing Chark will be tied up with James Bradberry, Westbrook should be a big part of the gameplan. He’s still yet to top five catches or 66 yards, so it’s tough to say he’s anything more than a WR4 but the matchup is a solid one.

D.J. Moore: It hasn’t been great under Kyle Allen, as Moore has totaled just seven targets that have amounted to four catches, 96 yards, and a touchdown. It could be worse, but those targets are not going to be enough to sustain consistent production. It’s quite the departure from the 24 targets he saw in two games with Cam Newton. Against the Jaguars, he’s likely to see Jalen Ramsey, provided he suits up for this game. The butterfly effect of Ramsey in the secondary is massive, though A.J. Bouye is no slouch himself. Bouye has still yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage this year, while Ramsey and his replacement, Tre Herndon, have allowed four of them on 40 targets. Knowing Moore’s been getting less targets with Allen, it’s a fair question on whether or not you should bench him in this game. If Ramsey plays, I’d consider Moore just a low-end WR3/high-end WR4. If Ramsey sits again, I’m comfortable playing him as a high-end WR3. It’s not a great matchup regardless. *Update* Ramsey will be held out for this game, upgrading Moore’s matchup to WR3 territory. 

Curtis Samuel: After an exciting first game with Kyle Allen, Samuel came back down to earth in Week 4, catching just three passes for 32 yards, though he did net seven targets, which led the team. The Panthers aren’t using him in the slot very often, but rather keeping Jarius Wright in that role. That means Samuel will see a combination of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye 75 percent of the time, which is never a good thing. The Jaguars have allowed a receiver to reach 93 yards in 3-of-4 games, though the names on that list do play in the slot quite often (Sammy Watkins, Adam Humphries, and Emmanuel Sanders). Samuel is one big play away from WR3 or better production, which is why you hate to exclude him from your lineup, but against the Jaguars, the odds are not in his favor, making him a risky WR4/5. If Ramsey sits another game, Samuel would definitely be upgraded, as it’d have a butterfly effect on the rest of the secondary. *Update* Ramsey will be held out of this game, upgrading the entire Panthers offense. He’s still in the high-end WR4 area, though his odds of breaking that big play went up significantly. 

TEs
James O’Shaughnessy: It’s still a timeshare between him and Geoff Swaim, though O’Shaughnessy leads the team in targets and routes run, so if you wanted to play one of them, it’s him. The Panthers haven’t played any big-name tight ends this year, but we’re going to just add the Jaguars to that list. Still, they’ve yet to allow more than 21 yards to an opposing tight end, a marked improvement from where they were last year, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to the position. There’s really just no need to play O’Shaughnessy in anything more than tournaments, and even then, you shouldn’t do it.

Greg Olsen: After seeing seven targets in the first game with Allen under center, it seemed like things might be okay for Olsen, but after catching just two balls for five yards on four targets in Week 4, he’s no sure thing for production. The Jaguars have some issues on their defense right now and it’s allowed tight ends to exploit it, as Noah Fant was able to score his first career touchdown last week, and it was Delanie Walker going for 7/64/0 the prior week. They weren’t a team to attack with tight ends last year, as just three tight ends were able to top 36 yards against them. You don’t want to take away too much from the start of this season, as they had to play Travis Kelce in Week 1 (held him to just three catches for 88 yards) and have then been dealing with the Jalen Ramsey drama that affects their whole defense, but they may not be the shutdown unit they once were. Olsen should be a safety blanket for Allen against the Jaguars fierce pass-rush, especially if Ramsey plays, which will take away Moore and Samuel as safe options. Olsen is the Panthers player who actually gets upgraded if Ramsey plays and should be considered a low-end TE1 in that case.

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans

Total: 48.0
Line: HOU by 5.0

QBs
Matt Ryan: It was a bad day at the office for the Falcons offense last week, though Ryan did manage to throw up 397 yards. It was the third-most yardage without a touchdown over the last five years. Can Ryan get it back together on the road in Houston against another struggling offense? Prior to playing Kyle Allen last week, they’d looked like a team you could target, as they’d allowed 318-plus yards and two touchdowns to two of their first three opponents. Their secondary is not built to handle the Falcons options at wide receiver, and it’s going to be up to Ryan to get them the ball. The pass-rush without Jadeveon Clowney has been average, nothing over the top to be overly concerned about. Dating back to Week 12 of last year, the Texans have allowed 300-plus yards through the air in 6-of-10 games, which included Nick Foles and Marcus Mariota. Through four weeks, they’ve allowed the second-most completions to quarterbacks. They’ve only allowed a 3.21 percent touchdown-rate, so it may not be a four-touchdown game for Ryan, but he should offer a great floor in this game, and we can’t pretend that his one week without touchdowns is the standard moving forward. With Devonta Freeman and the run-game struggling, Ryan had thrown eight touchdowns in the first three games. He should be in lineups this week as a rock-solid QB1 and one with tremendous upside.

Deshaun Watson: It’s been a slow start to the season for the Texans pass-attack, and oddly enough, their worst games have come at home. Watson has totaled just 159.5 yards per game at home while averaging 309.5 yards and 3.0 touchdowns on the road. Competition can certainly be factored into that and it doesn’t help that Watson has played against the Saints, Jaguars, Chargers, and Panthers, all teams who can get after the quarterback. This week should be his easiest task yet, as the Falcons defense looked completely lost without Keanu Neal, similar to last year when they allowed 12-of-15 quarterbacks to finish as top-15 options without him. That extended to 13-of-16 last week when Marcus Mariota looked like an elite quarterback throwing for 227 yards and three touchdowns on just 27 attempts. The prior week, it was Jacoby Brissett who tagged them for 310 yards and two touchdowns on just 37 attempts, and while being without T.Y. Hilton for an entire half. Despite facing the fifth-fewest attempts per game, they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This is a matchup made for Watson to get back on track, and even better, there’s an opponent that’ll put points on the board. He should be started as an elite QB1 this week and is cash-game viable.

RBs
Devonta Freeman: He’s had a brutal schedule to start the season against the Vikings, Eagles, Colts, and Titans. It’s showed in his performance, too, as he’s still yet to score a touchdown, though he did total 100 total yards for the first time last week. The Texans looked like they missed Jadeveon Clowney quite a bit in Week 1 when they allowed 140 yards and a touchdown to the Saints running backs, though they’ve righted the ship since then, allowing just 202 yards and one touchdown on 56 carries (3.61 yards per carry) to the combination of Leonard Fournette, Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and Christian McCaffrey, which is quite impressive. Knowing the Falcons defense is going to let the Texans rack-up points, we need to look at the passing game for Freeman’s production. He’s seen at least four targets in every game and even with Ito Smith active last week, Freeman saw nine targets, turning them into 72 yards. All four of the starting running backs who’ve played the Texans have caught at least four passes and totaled at least 40 yards through the air. Freeman’s floor should be in the low-end RB2 range this week and might find his way into the RB1 territory if he snags a touchdown. He makes for an interesting tournament option this week. His floor would go down if center Alex Mack were not able to play in this game, as he was forced to leave in Week 4 with an elbow injury.

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: Through four games, the touch-count is Hyde 57, Johnson 31. While Johnson has the more valuable role in the passing game, seeing double the targets of Hyde, but it’s clear who’ll be in the game when they’re leading. The Falcons have done a respectable job against the run in non-Vikings games, holding the combination of Eagles, Colts, and Titans running backs to 237 yards on 70 carries (3.39 yards per carry) with one touchdown. One thing to note is that all those teams have far-better offensive lines than the Texans, so Hyde could have trouble finding much yardage on the ground. The Texans have had just nine carries inside the red zone this year, with Hyde taking seven of them. Getting closer, Hyde has received all three carries inside the five-yard-line. Knowing the scoring potential in this game, Hyde should have a good shot to find the end zone against a Falcons team that’s allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in their last 20 games under Dan Quinn. He should be considered a middling RB3 who’s somewhat touchdown-dependent in this game. Johnson could benefit from the fact that the Falcons can put points on the board. If Hyde starts slow and the Falcons jump out to a lead, this could be another Week 1 scenario where Johnson out-snapped Hyde nearly 2-to-1. The Falcons have also struggled to stop pass-catching backs under Quinn, as they allowed a massive 424 receptions to running backs over the last four years, easily the most in the NFL. Johnson is a good sleeper pick to produce RB2/3-type numbers this week, though he does need the gamescript to go a bit south to do a lot of damage. Consider him an upside RB3 this week whose floor should be decent enough to start with confidence.

WRs
Julio Jones: So, you want to be an NFL cornerback? Welcome to the NFL, rookie. Jones will be seeing an awful lot of Lonnie Johnson in this game, a rookie who’s been forced into action after they released Aaron Colvin. He’s seen just 15 targets in coverage to this point, allowing 9/108/0 on them, though he’s been beat multiple times where the quarterback has simply missed. Among the 107 cornerbacks PFF has graded throughout four weeks, Johnson ranks 104th, matching what I’ve seen on the field. Jones will also see Bradley Roby in coverage, the cornerback who the Broncos moved on from after last year when he allowed nearly 10 yards per target and a touchdown every 13.8 targets in coverage. Shake off the bad week and get Jones into your lineups as a stud WR1 who is safe enough for cash games and has enough upside for tournaments. *Update* Johnson is now apparently dealing with a groin injury and is questionable. It’s getting to the point where they might have a third-string cornerback on Jones. 

Calvin Ridley: It’s been a disappointing two weeks for Ridley, as he’s totaled just four receptions for 38 scoreless yards over the last two weeks combined. There’s been just one other two-game span where he’s totaled fewer yards, though he snapped out of that one, totaling 13 receptions for 164 yards and two touchdowns over the next three weeks. He’s going to see the most of Johnathan Joseph in coverage, who is the Texans best cornerback, but he’s also 35 years old and may not move as well as he used to. He also plays in a lot of zone coverage, so he’ll have help over the top, though the Texans really have to worry about Julio Jones against the rookie Lonnie Johnson, so they may tilt coverage that way. Ridley is no sure thing, but not many WR3s are. You should place him in your lineup and ride out the storm. You won’t want to miss it when he bounces back.

Mohamed Sanu: It was quite odd to see Sanu get a team-high 12 targets last week, as it was his highest total since Week 6 of 2014 when he was still with the Bengals. He’s also seen at least six targets in every game, so he’s offering some stability in that aspect. The Texans move Bradley Roby into the slot when opponents go three-wide, which is where Sanu lives. Roby is a new acquisition by the Texans, as he was let go by the cornerback-needy Broncos after he failed to live up to expectations. Replacing the recently-released Aaron Colvin, Roby’s only seen 11 targets in the slot so far, allowing eight catches for 97 yards. The Falcons can kind of pick their poison here and though Sanu’s matchup is a good one, you can make the argument that Jones’ is better. Sanu is a good bye-week filler with his target floor and just might rise above expectations once again this week, though you can’t consider him as anything more than a WR4 as the third (or fourth) option in the passing game.

Deandre Hopkins: It’s been a nightmare start to the season for those who spent a first-round pick on Hopkins, as he’s failed to top 67 yards or score a touchdown in each of his last three games. He’s had some brutal matchups, though that ends this week, as the Falcons cornerback duo of Desmond Trufant and Isaiah Oliver can’t contain much. The duo has allowed five touchdowns on just 34 targets in coverage, including three last week to the duo of Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. Without Keanu Neal on the backend of the defense, they’ve struggled mightily. It picks up from last year when they allowed a wide receiver touchdown once every 13.4 targets, which was the third most frequent in the league. There were nine different receivers who amassed 20-plus PPR points against them last year, including five receivers who were top-eight options. Hopkins should get back on track here and is playable in cash lineups.

Will Fuller: There are many waiting on a Fuller breakout performance, though it hasn’t come. He’s seen 23 targets, so it’s not due to a lack of trying. It’s possible he may not be 100 percent off the ACL surgery he had this offseason, but he is playing all the snaps and has seen at least six targets in each of the last three games. Looking at the receivers who completely went-off against the Falcons last year, it was a lot of No. 1 receivers who saw eight-plus targets and No. 3 receivers who played in the slot. Despite them allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, they allowed just 46 plays of 20-plus yards, which ranked 21st. With the amount of targets he’s getting, combined with his 16.8-yard average depth of target that ranks fifth in football, he’s going to have a big game really soon. This matchup may not be the one, but he still deserves high-end WR4 consideration with more upside than most in that range.

Keke Coutee: It appears that Kenny Stills is going to miss some time with a hamstring injury, so in comes Coutee, who was a favorite of many analysts this offseason. With the injury to Stills, he played a season-high 38-of-67 snaps last week. The Falcons are a springboard for wide receivers and have struggled to contain slot receivers over their last 20 games. In that span, they’ve allowed 13 slot-heavy wide receivers to reach double-digit PPR days, which typically puts them in the top-40 wide receivers for that week. After letting Brian Poole go in free agency, the Falcons have turned to safety Damontae Kazee to cover the slot. He’s allowed 10 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown on just 13 targets in coverage. Kazee ran a 4.54-second 40-yard dash at his 2017 Combine, so he doesn’t have the speed to keep up with the speedy Coutee, who appears to be healthy. This could be a week for him to get back on the fantasy radar, though it’s hard to trust him as anything more than a WR5 with a good matchup. *Update* Kazee is now questionable due to an illness, which wouldn’t hurt Coutee’s outlook at all. 

TEs
Austin Hooper: Through four weeks of the NFL season, Hooper sits as the No. 2 tight end, ahead of all three tight ends who were selected in the top three rounds. He’s seen at least six targets in each game, including nine-plus targets in two of them. Knowing he’s catching 85 percent of the passes that come his way, that’s huge for his fantasy floor. We watched the Texans hold Greg Olsen in check last week, though if you watch Olsen, he’s a shell of his former self and is not moving very well. The Texans are a similar defense to the one they were last year, which was a team that allowed nearly 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns to tight ends. The 2.00 points per target to tight ends ranked as the sixth-most. They’ve allowed a league-low 1.18 PPR points per target to tight ends this year, but that’ll happen when you play Jared Cook, James O’Shaughnessy, Lance Kendricks, and Greg Olsen. Can things change? Sure, but with it being the same scheme, it’s unlikely. Hooper should be considered a must-start TE1 nearly every week at this point, and the Texans aren’t as good as the numbers say through four weeks.

Jordan Akins: As crazy as it sounds, Akins is a top-12 tight end through a quarter of the NFL season. He came back down to earth last week, catching three passes for 21 scoreless yards. He’s now been held to 25 yards or less in all but one game, so you shouldn’t be expecting him to stay in that top-12 very long. The Falcons have played against a very tough schedule of tight ends to this point, as Kyle Rudolph, Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron, and Delanie Walker have all been top-six tight ends before. Despite a tougher schedule, they’ve allowed the 11th fewest points to the position. Even going back to last year when they allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks, they ranked as the 10th best defense against the tight end position. Akins will have streamable weeks, but this shouldn’t be one of them.