A month of data gives fantasy gamers a better sense of trends when filling out Week 5 lineups. Favorable and poor matchups start to crystalize in addition to team tendencies and distribution rates. It’s also, of course, still early enough for these marks to change with one wide deviation.

Looking at the early numbers, let’s start October right by identifying some players to start at sit. The cited Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are taken from Tuesday night and apply to half-PPR rankings. In most cases, they provide a good gauge for some of these fringe starters.

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Quarterback

Start

Kyler Murray (ARI) at CIN: QB10 ECR
The best way to describe the start of Murray’s career: meh. He places 13th in passing yards (1,071) despite throwing the third-most attempts (169) behind Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. That gives him the same 6.3 yards per pass as Luke Falk. He’s taken a big beating, getting sacked 20 times behind a shoddy Arizona offensive line. And yet despite his inefficiency, he’s the QB13 with help from 69 rushing yards in Week 9 and a running score last Sunday. The Cardinals vs. Bengals may be an ugly football game, but it could please fantasy backers with plenty of points. Cincinnati has ceded a 72.6% completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, and a 116.0 quarterback rating to Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Josh Allen, and Mason Rudolph. Only one of those is a trustworthy starter, but all four compiled at least 16 fantasy points. Another 40-plus throws should result in Murray’s third 300-yard outing of the young season.

Sit

Kirk Cousins (MIN) at NYG: QB18 ECR
I was all prepared to endorse Cousins as a start. Don’t get fooled by the Giants after two wins, I was prepared to write. Even after picking off Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins four times, they have allowed 9.3 yards per pass attempts — ranked 31st ahead of Miami — and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. And yet Cousins exposing this secondary is contingent on him actually getting a chance to throw the football. Among all quarterbacks who have started four games, nobody has fewer pass attempts than Cousins’ 99. Making matters worse, he tossed the pigskin 31 combined times in Minnesota’s two double-digit victories. He’ll need to be ultra-efficient with his limited reps, which is a real possibility against this defense. Without far better touchdown fortune, however, a 17-for-24, 220-yard type of line could leave streamers unsatiated.

Running Back

Start

LeSean McCoy (KC) vs. IND: RB15 ECR
No matter which D. Williams is sharing snaps in Kansas City’s backfield, McCoy will get a piece of the pie against a Colts defense ceding 5.5 yards per carry. Only his Chiefs have fared worse at 5.9. Despite narrowly escaping Detroit with a victory, Kansas City remains a double-digit favorite at home. It may not matter. Regardless of the game script, McCoy has handled 11-14 touches in each game. That steady role has yielded three touchdowns in the last two matchups. Even in a timeshare, the experts are incredibly bullish on the 31-year-old’s Week 5 outlook. Take their lead and treat McCoy as a legitimate RB2.

James White (NE) at WAS: RB26 ECR
For all the volatility associated with New England running backs, White has offered double-digit PPR points in each of his three games played. He has drawn a 20.4% target share from Tom Brady, including four red-zone looks and three inside the 10. Amid a shuffling deck, White has emerged as the closest thing this offense has to a constant. Washington ranks 26th in total defense after allowing 118 total yards (63 rushing, 55 receiving) and two touchdowns to Wayne Gallman.

Sit

Ronald Jones (TB) at NO: RB28 ECR
Jones’ role continues to expand with each passing week. In Week 4’s stunning 55-40 triumph over the Rams, the sophomore set season highs in snaps (36) and touches (20) while producing his first touchdown of 2019. He’s handled three red-zone carries in consecutive contests, so it’s easy to see why the experts are entrusting him as a flex option. Ranking 18th against the run, the Saints also may not seem like a tough matchup. Yet that come against the Rams, Seahawks, Texans, and Cowboys, all top-10 rushing attacks in 2018. Ezekiel Elliott didn’t break a run beyond six yards when bottled up to 35 yards on 18 handoffs in Sunday night’s loss. Perhaps the Buccaneers beat the odds once more, but they’re underdogs going into the Superdome. With 12 targets in 13 career games, Jones will likely need another touchdown to pay off this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Start

Stefon Diggs (MIN) at NYG: WR21 ECR
But wait, I just said not to start Cousins. It didn’t matter that Minnesota didn’t muster a single passing touchdown in a 16-6 loss to the Bears; Diggs still bounced back by catching all seven targets for 108 yards against the Bears. The Giants’ defense is a tad worse than the Bears. He should see plenty of Janoris Jenkins, who got taken to school by Mike Evans in a slump-busting Week 3 breakout. Diggs probably won’t see the volume needed to go as wild, but he could certainly clear 100 yards again behind some downfield strikes.

Robby Anderson (NYJ) at PHI: WR54 ECR
This is more of a “go big or go home” dart throw if Sam Darnold can’t make an expedited recovery by Sunday. The usually volatile Anderson can’t be blamed for his two duds in three games. They came against the Bills and Patriots, who respectively rank second and fourth in passing defense with one combined touchdown yielded to wideouts. He’ll go from facing Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White to Rasul Douglas and a rickety Eagles secondary. After coughing up 180 yards to Davante Adams in less than a full game, Philadelphia is last in fantasy points per game permitted to wide receivers. Per Next Gen Stats, Anderson leads the NFL with 47.8% of his team’s targeted air yards. Although not for the faint of heart, he could breakthrough in a major way

Sit

DJ Chark (JAC) at CAR: WR32 ECR
Over the long haul, Chark is in good shape if catching four of eight targets for 44 yards signifies a disappointment. He’s still one of September’s finest success stories after opening the campaign with 321 yards and three scores in four bouts. He’s on the precipice of weekly WR3 consideration, but this week may not go as well. Week 4’s column listed Will Fuller as a sit against a percolating Panthers secondary. In addition to stuffing him for 23 yards, they even limited DeAndre Hopkins to a team-high 41 yards. Chark isn’t swimming in must-start territory just yet, so bench him against the league’s top-ranked passing defense.

Corey Davis (TEN) vs. BUF: WR46 ECR
Nope, not again. Let’s talk after Davis manages consecutive big games. On the heels of staking the Falcons to 91 yards and a touchdown, the perennial tease gets a tenacious Bills defense ranked third in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers Quite frankly, he’s lucky to even crack the ECR’s top 50.

Tight End

Start

Eric Ebron (IND) at KC: TE11 ECR
Just about every fantasy analyst called Ebron a 2019 bust. So far, they haven’t exactly been proven wrong; he’s caught just eight of 16 targets for 128 yards. Those who have drafted him anyway, however, have still received the TE13 in half-PPR formats because of his two touchdowns. That gives him a cool 15 scores in 20 games with the Colts. There are worse fantasy assets than a touchdown-dependent tight end, especially with Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton banged up. Jacoby Brissett will have to throw often — especially if Mack doesn’t play — as road underdogs against the Chiefs, who have permitted 32 catches on an NFL-high 45 targets to tight ends. Ebron rounds out the list of guys to start with reasonable comfort, and Jack Doyle is also a reasonable high-end TE2 if the Colts’ offense enters Arrowhead short-handed.

Sit

Delanie Walker (TEN) vs. BUF: TE10 ECR
Maybe you have no better options than Walker, which is likely the case for anybody who must locate a replacement on the waiver wire. His sturdy floor crumbled when Atlanta contained him to a four-yard grab in Week 4, a game the 35-year-old played despite dealing with a knee injury earlier in the week. He could just need more time to heal in order to burst back into Tennessee’s game plan. Then again, it’s likely no Titans make much noise against a Bills defense that just held Tom Brady to 18 completions for 150 yards and no touchdowns on 39 passes. Their microscopic 5.1 yards per pass attempt now leads the NFL, and opposing tight ends have combined to produce 84 yards without a single end-zone visit. That includes six catches for 48 yards from Evan Engram, so Walker is looking at an awfully low Week 5 ceiling. Ebron or Tyler Eifert offer more potential for someone seeking a wider range of possibilities.

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