Week 1 of 2019 has arrived, and with it the nerve-wracking tradition of sweating your weekly survivor pool pick — or survivor picks, if you’re like a lot of NFL fans who are playing multiple entries in these thrilling contests.
In this post we break down the five most popular survivor picks of NFL Week 1, laying out the pros and cons of each.
Our resume in brief: over the past two years, our subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings using our data-driven survivor pool picks and tools.
We’ll briefly explain the approach behind that success, then get to our NFL Week 1 survivor pick analysis.
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How To Make The Best Week 1 Survivor Pick
Our survivor pick analysis is different than what you’re probably used to reading.
Most survivor advice-givers share a litany of reasons why they think a specific team is definitely going to win its Week 1 game, and is therefore a great survivor pick. Sadly, that’s junior high level survivor pool strategy. If you think winning an NFL survivor or knockout pool is all about identifying the most likely team to win, then you are exactly the type of player that true survivor pros want to have in their pool.
We evaluate Week 1 survivor picks based on how likely they are to help you win your pool, which is what really matters. This level of analysis requires you to go much deeper than just looking at how safe a pick is.
Keep The End Goal In Mind
Never forget that your goal as a survivor pool player isn’t to maximize your odds to survive the early weeks and then “figure it out” from there. Your goal is to out-survive every opponent in your pool, no matter how long it takes.
It seems like many survivor players also lose sight of the fact that to out-survive an opponent, you need to make picks that are different than them. To win a survivor pool, you need to make picks that win, while your opponents pick other teams, and those teams lose. At some point, you’ve got to start thinking about zagging when your opponents zig.
If you want the best chance to win your pool, that point is Week 1 — not some arbitrary future week if you happen to make it that far. If you primarily follow the crowd and pick all the safest, most popular teams in the early going, you could miss out on the best opportunity of the season to survive a week while many of your opponents get knocked out.
We don’t even have to look far back into survivor pool history to find a perfect illustration of what we mean.
In Week 3 of the 2018 season, Minnesota’s loss to Buffalo eliminated nearly 60% of still-alive survivor pool entries nationwide. If you were one of the minority of players that recognized the significant expected value of avoiding a team picked by nearly 60% of your opponents, and you had the guts to act on that knowledge and roll the dice on an educated gamble in Week 3, you had a great shot at winning your survivor pool last year.
The 4 Keys To Winning Survivor Pick Strategy
Figuring out which Week 1 survivor pick will give you the biggest boost in expected pool winnings requires you to evaluate three factors for every team. We call them the “Holy Trinity” of NFL survivor pool strategy:
- Win odds (higher is better)
- Pick popularity (lower is better)
- Future value (lower is better)
All else being equal, picking a less popular team and saving a better team for the future will increase your odds to win an NFL survivor pool.
By extension, your expected profit from a survivor pool can go up significantly if you avoid picking the most popular pick of the week. Taking on a modest amount of additional risk (that your pick loses and you’re eliminated from the pool), in exchange for a greatly increased probability that a large percentage of your opponents get eliminated but you survive, is often a very worthy tradeoff from an economic standpoint.
How much added risk it makes sense to take varies, though, and greatly depends on factors such as the size of your survivor pool and its rules. We built our NFL Survivor Picks product to do all that number crunching for you.
The Fourth Key: Mental Toughness
Just as importantly, you need to be ready and willing to make the highest expected value pick decisions whenever they happen to present themselves — and not ignore them until you’ve had the personal satisfaction of surviving the early weeks.
That’s admittedly a very hard thing to do from a psychological perspective. Making even slightly riskier picks in the first few weeks of a survivor pool increases your risk to be eliminated from the pool quite early, and to consequently face the unrelenting mockery of your friends, coworkers, etc.
But if you’re not mentally ready to make a gamble that makes clear economic sense in the early weeks, then why on earth are you spending your hard earned money to play in the insanely risky world of survivor pools? You might as well just hold up a sign that says, “Hello sharks, it’s me the minnow, into which of your bank accounts would you prefer me to deposit my pool entry fees?”
Week 1 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis
OK, enough of that high level strategy stuff; let’s get to the pick analysis.
What we are doing here is providing our thoughts on the five most popular Week 1 survivor picks — aka the picks that you are most likely considering making in your survivor or knockout pool this week. (We estimate survivor pick popularity based on picking trends data from several popular survivor pool hosting sites.)
To be clear, we’re not implying that any of these teams is the best pick for your pool. In fact, that’s the problem with pretty much every other survivor pick advice article out there. There is no such thing as a universally “best” survivor pick.
Our top recommended Week 1 pick for your pool would almost certainly change based on factors like your pool’s size and rules. Hop over to our NFL Survivor Picks product (which is free for Week 1) and tell us a few things about your pool, and you will see our customized pick recommendations.
If you’d rather make picks completely on your own, no sweat. The analysis below should help you weigh the pros and cons of the picks you’re probably considering, based on factors that have a big impact on your odds to win your pool.
Note: Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday evening, and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Survivor Pool Pick Popularity: 27% (#1)
Point Spread: -10
It’s not a huge surprise that Seattle is the most popular survivor pick in Week 1. Until betting lines recently moved in Philadelphia’s favor, the Seahawks (a 10-point favorite) were the most likely team to win this week, playing at home against a Bengals team coming off a disappointing season and adjusting to new head coach Zac Taylor.
Cincinnati is expected to finish in last place in the AFC North, and the Bengals will be without star receiver A.J. Green for this game. Seattle, meanwhile, is expected to compete for a playoff spot in 2019, and the Seahawks have been tough to beat at home with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Pete Carroll at head coach. Seattle has won 27 of 31 home games when favored by at least nine points with Wilson at QB.
Our models put Seattle’s win odds just shy of 80%, and the next week in which the Seahawks project so strongly isn’t until Week 16 (home vs. Arizona), when they may even be resting starters if they happen to have a playoff spot locked up by then.
That’s definitely something to keep in mind if you are playing in a smaller pool that is unlikely to last until Week 16. In that case, Seattle’s future value is significantly lower than other big favorites this week, a fact that helps counteract the downside of Seattle’s very high — but not insanely, 2018 Week 3 Vikings high — pick popularity.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Redskins)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 21% (#2)
Point Spread: -10
Philadelphia enters Week 1 with the second-highest pick popularity, but as of Wednesday had become the safest team (both the Eagles and Seahawks were 10-point favorites, but Philadelphia’s money line was slightly better).
The Eagles are expected to bounce back as a Super Bowl contender this season, with an average projection of 9.9 wins in our season simulations after finishing 9-7 a year ago. Carson Wentz is back in as starting quarterback, now more than a year removed from the knee injury that cost him the end of his 2017 season, in which he looked like an MVP candidate before going down.
Washington, meanwhile, has lowered expectations entering the season. Journeyman Case Keenum will start at quarterback over rookie Dwayne Haskins, the skill positions are far from settled, and OT Trent Williams is holding out.
Philadelphia being the safest but not the most popular pick in Week 1 is a certainly a nice combo; the concern is more about future value, especially in bigger pools. The Eagles project as having the top win odds in Week 14, and top-3 win odds in at least three more weeks (Week 3 against Detroit, Week 5 against the Jets, Week 13 at Miami). There may well be viable alternatives to pick in several of those weeks, but with over 20% of survivor entries burning the Eagles in Week 1, it also increases the odds that Philadelphia will be a relatively safe yet unpopular pick in one of them.
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Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 12% (#3)
Point Spread: -6.5
With roughly half of survivor entries nationwide taking either Seattle or Philadelphia in Week 1, the other half of entries is settling for riskier but significantly less popular teams.
After the Andrew Luck retirement news, the LA Chargers (the No. 4 team in our preseason rankings) moved up to the third most popular survivor pick of Week 1. The line moved by 3-4 points in LA’s favor with the Colts change in quarterback to Jacoby Brissett, giving the Chargers around 72% win odds compared to roughly 80% for the Seahawks and Eagles.
A week ago, the Chargers had climbed to 8% pick popularity. It reached 12% on Wednesday. If LAC’s pick popularity continues to rise before kickoff time, it will negatively impact the expected value of picking the Chargers this week.
Like the Eagles, the Chargers have multiple weeks with “good survivor pick” level win odds early in the season, and the Chargers could be among the better survivor options in Week 4 (at Miami) and Week 5 (Denver). Then, there’s a bit of a lull in higher win odds games until Oakland in Week 16.
Multiple favorable matchups in near-term games means that the Chargers rate quite highly in terms of future value this week, plus they are riskier than the two top favorites, and they are not a very unpopular pick either. In general, that’s not the most compelling profile.
Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 11% (#4)
Point Spread: -6.5
The Miami Dolphins seem to be in tank-for-the-future mode. They have traded away veterans like OT Laremy Tunsil for draft picks, and will start 36-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Baltimore, on the other hand, is handing the keys to young QB Lamar Jackson after he helped the Ravens make the playoffs a year ago. For an outside Super Bowl contender, the Ravens have made a lot of offseason changes, getting a lot younger at receiver and in the front seven, while adding veterans in RB Mark Ingram and S Earl Thomas.
The point spread in this game has bounced around quite a bit in the early going. It opened at Ravens -4 and started climbing, spiking to Ravens -7.5 earlier in the week. It has now gone back down to Ravens -6.5. That puts Baltimore in the same range as the Chargers when it comes to risk, with about a 72% chance of winning.
Baltimore is also similarly popular as the Chargers, with 11% pick popularity vs. 12% for LAC. The fact that they are on the road may be a factor in them being slightly less popular of a pick.
From a future value perspective, Baltimore doesn’t boast as compelling a profile as the Chargers. The main wildcard looks to be Week 2, when the Ravens should be the clear top favorite of the week when hosting Arizona. In addition, New England and Kansas City, both teams expected to be very strong this year, currently project as the second and third most likely winners of Week 2, despite both teams playing on the road. As a result, Baltimore may also be a tremendously popular pick next week, which could lead you to want to avoid picking them.
The primary negative we see this week for Baltimore is that our models are more pessimistic than the betting markets about the Ravens’ win odds compared to the Chargers. In the betting markets, Baltimore had a slightly better money line than LAC, despite also being a 6.5 point favorite.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 6% (#5)
Point Spread: -7.5
Dallas checks in as the fifth-most popular survivor pick this week, but the Cowboys’ 5% pick popularity is half that of the next most popular pick, Baltimore. Add the third-highest win odds of the week (76%) into the mix, and you’re off to an interesting start.
Dallas’ popularity has risen slightly, though, with the news of Ezekiel Elliott’s contract extension and return to the team on Wednesday. Whether it continues to rise for the rest of the week is something to keep an eye on, as it will negatively impact the expected value of picking the Cowboys if it does.
On the future value front, Dallas probably falls somewhere in between Seattle and Philadelphia. The Cowboys look like they will be the safest pick in Week 3, at home against Miami. But with the next-safest options that week likely to be New England and Philadelphia, Dallas could be an extremely popular Week 3 pick. Then, starting in Week 4, Dallas’ schedule gets tougher for a while, and they don’t have a projected 70% win odds game until they host Buffalo in Week 13.
Get Our Week 1 Survivor Pick Recommendation
The teams above are the most popular picks this week, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Every possible pick has an expected value and future value associated with it, and those values vary based on the specific characteristics of your pool. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives the biggest boost to your expected survivor pool winnings.
We built our NFL Survivor Picks tools to do all of this analytical work for you. You answer a few questions about your pool’s size and rules, and it provides customized pick recommendations for your pool using the latest matchup data, betting market odds and public picking trends from national survivor pool sites.
The product even does a second layer of optimization if you are playing multiple survivor entries, recommending exactly how you should split a “portfolio” of survivor pool entries across one, two, or more teams. (Our product optimizes picks for up to 30 unique survivor pool entries.)
Good luck in your survivor pools this week, and here’s to a skillful (and lucky) season of picking!
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