PoolGenius | Sun, Sep 1st 2019, 1:20am EDT

Week 1 Picks For NFL Pick’em And Confidence Pools (2019)

With Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season finally here, let’s look at some of the most intriguing pick opportunities in NFL pick’em contests.

Of course, we want to identify the most likely winner of each Week 1 game. But maximizing your edge in a pick’em pool also requires game theory, because you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss.

As a result, you need to be on the lookout for underrated teams that might be worth an educated gamble. You also need to avoid trendy upset picks that aren’t worth the risk.

This level of strategy is a big reason why 80% our subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick’em last year, and here’s what it uncovers in 2019 Week 1.

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Value Picks For NFL Week 1 Pools

Using Vegas odds, data-driven predictions, and pick popularity data from national football pick’em contests, we’ve analyzed the entire NFL Week 1 slate and identified the best and worst value picking opportunities available.

Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of the picks below — the upset picks especially. The best Week 1 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as its size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks left in the pool.

(Our Football Pick’em Picks product customizes recommended weekly picks for you based on all those factors.)

What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 1 picks from your pool opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.

Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.

A Note About The Bigger Favorites Of 2019 NFL Week 1

The public tends to overrate all big favorites. For example, many people struggle to believe that a team like Cincinnati, which was 6-10 last year, is going to go out to CenturyLink Field and beat Seattle in front of a rabid home crowd.

2019 Week 1 is no different. Despite Seattle’s roughly 80% win odds, over 95% of pick’em players nationwide are picking the Seahawks to win. As a collective group, the public is significantly overrating Seattle’s chances to win.

Underrated Does NOT Necessarily Mean “Great Upset Pick”

So do the underrated Bengals make for a great contrarian pick in Week 1? Almost certainly not. In most season-long pools, for instance, picking a 10-point underdog in Week 1 is far too big a risk to take so early in the season.

Among the top four or five biggest favorites of each NFL week, though, there’s usually at least one team that stands out as the least overrated of the bunch. So if you’re dead set on making a big upset pick this week, we could at least advise you not make it on that game.

However, 2019 Week 1 looks like a rare exception to that rule. At post time there were six teams favored by six points or more (Seattle, Philadelphia, Dallas, New Orleans, LA Chargers, and New England), and all of them featured a relatively similar differential between win odds and pick popularity.

Favorites At A Reasonable Price

The two picks below are still technically overrated by the public, but to a much lesser degree than other teams with similar risk profiles this week. You should think twice about picking against these two teams, because there are smarter upset pick opportunities available elsewhere.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta)

Starting from the biggest favorite this week (Seattle) and working your way down, Minnesota is the first favorite you hit that has a difference between pick popularity and win odds of around 10%. As a 3.5-point favorite in the betting markets, the Vikings have just under a 65% chance to beat Atlanta, and 73% of the public is picking Minnesota. That’s a reasonable premium for a favorite of more than a field goal.

Although a recent point spread move against Minnesota isn’t the greatest news (the Vikings used to be -4.5), there are several highly overrated teams at this risk level this week, two of which we highlight in the Value Gambles section below. As another comparable, a whopping 92% percent of the public is picking Cleveland to beat Tennessee; the Browns, at 68% win odds, aren’t much more likely to win than Minnesota.

Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay)

Chicago has a very similar profile to Minnesota this week. The Bears are being picked by 72% of the public, and have about a 63% chance of winning if you average our models and the betting markets. Yet opponent Green Bay, a 3.5-point underdog, is four times as popular an upset pick as another 3.5-point underdog this week. (Keep reading, oh the suspense…)

It’s always difficult to completely decode public perception. First, hopes are high that Aaron Rodgers will regain his stature as one of the best QB’s in the game with a new coach and offensive system in 2019. That outcome seems by no means guaranteed, though. Over the last four years Rodgers is 20th in yards per attempt among all quarterbacks who have thrown at least 1,000 passes.

Green Bay had also dominated this series until last year, when the Bears won the second matchup and covered the spread in both games. Before last season, though, the Packers had won 12 of the last 14 head-to-head matchups and covered the spread in 11 of them.

Narratives aside, real money being bet on this game implies that Chicago has the better chance to win, and that Green Bay is too trendy of an upset pick compared to the alternatives.

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Week 1 Picks For Your NFL Pick’em Pool

Unpopular Toss-Up Picks

When a matchup is pretty much a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes the most sense to pick the less popular team. To win an NFL pick’em pool, you’re probably going to need to catch some good luck in these “coin flip” games. And when that happens, you want to maximize the upside by scoring points that the majority of your opponents miss.

The two picks below present that opportunity in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. San Francisco)

The Buccaneers and 49ers are basically brothers from another city. Both teams feature offensive gurus at head coach (Bruce Arians in his first year in Tampa Bay; Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco) and fairly potent passing attacks. Both teams also had bottom five ranked scoring defenses in 2018, which helps explain why they racked up 11 and 12 losses, respectively.

Tampa Bay was favored by one point in the betting markets at post time, yet a modest majority of the public (about 57%) is going with the 49ers. That may be because San Francisco, assuming a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, is expected to make a bigger jump upward in the wins column in 2019 than Tampa Bay.

Regardless, with the help of home field advantage, Tampa Bay is still the very slight favorite here and our models agree. The fact that the Bucs are only 43% picked is the cherry on top.

Denver Broncos (vs. Oakland)

In 2018 the Raiders finished with the NFL’s second-worst record, and were dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game. But after some offseason moves like adding WR Antonio Brown, the betting markets (and our 2019 preseason NFL predictions) expect Oakland to improve this year.

Perhaps because of that optimism, around two-thirds of the public is picking the Raiders to win their season opener at home.

Our models disagree, making Denver the slight favorite to win. And the game was an even Pick’em in the betting markets at post time, with the point spread having moved significantly in Denver’s favor after opening with the Raiders favored by 2.5 points.

Denver will be playing its first game under new head coach Vic Fangio, so perhaps the public anticipates a slow start for the Broncos. Alternatively, a lot of pick’em players may not realize how much the betting line has moved in Denver’s favor.

Value Gambles

All upset picks are not created equal. If you’re going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward — that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off — is as big as possible. Take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is really on you.

The two picks below are definitely not appropriate for all pools. If you’re in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left to pick, they’re probably not worth the risk.

However, if you’re in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you only care about winning weekly prizes in your season-long pool, or if you’re just feeling lucky, these unpopular underdogs with decent chances to win have compelling profiles.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Kansas City)

Mahomes Mania returns to the gridiron in 2019 and NFL pick’em pool players are clearly excited. In this game, Kansas City is being picked by 93% of the public, an extreme level of popularity normally reserved for heavy favorites of a touchdown or more.

Yet the Chiefs are only a 3.5-point favorite on the road at Jacksonville, with less than 65% win odds according to both the betting markets and our models. So what’s causing the discrepancy here?

Last year’s game at Arrowhead may provide a hint. The Jaguars’ defense held Mahomes without a touchdown pass, and Jacksonville was the only team to accomplish that feat in 2018. In fact, it was the only game all season in which Mahomes’ passer rating was below 89.5. However, Jags QB Blake Bortles threw four interceptions, including one returned for a TD right before halftime.

This year, QB Nick Foles looks to be an upgrade over Bortles for Jacksonville, a team that was in the AFC Championship Game two years ago and still has one of the better defenses in the league. Plus, Jacksonville has home field advantage, a factor the public might be undervaluing here.

KC is probably going to win this one, but if you trust the markets and the numbers, it’s one heck of a contrarian opportunity.

Carolina Panthers (vs. LA Rams)

The favorite went all the way to the Super Bowl. The underdog lost seven straight games last year before finally beating an unmotivated New Orleans team resting Drew Brees in Week 17. It’s pretty easy to see why the public would strongly favor the LA Rams in this game, to the tune of 87% pick popularity.

That pick popularity puts the Rams in line with the Cowboys, Chargers, Ravens, and Patriots, all teams are favored by at least six points in Week 1.

However, the Rams are only a 3-point favorite, giving Carolina a roughly 40% chance to pull off the upset. The Rams didn’t get any favors from the schedule makers to start the year, traveling cross-country for an early Sunday kickoff. In addition, LA’s 13-win campaign in 2018 benefitted from luck in stat categories like turnovers that will be hard to reproduce. Both our preseason predictions and offshore win totals lines expect the Rams to decline in 2019.

Cam Newton’s injured shoulder was a big factor in Carolina’s poor performance last year, and if he is healthier you can expect a better team. We project Carolina as a near-average team this year. Playing at home against a likely overrated Rams team, as only a 3-point dog, with only 13% of the public picking them, the Panthers definitely have contrarian value.

The TeamRankings Solution

Our solution to winning more pick’em pools was to build technology to do all the heavy lifting. We’ve developed a product that algorithmically optimizes your weekly NFL pick’em pool picks based on many different strategy dynamics.

It leverages betting market odds and objective game predictions, aggregates national pick popularity data and projects your opponents’ picks, and adjusts your weekly recommended picks for factors like your pool’s scoring system and format, prize structure, and your position in the standings.

It also covers game winner or spread-based contests; confidence pools; and pools with end-of-season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. In fact, it’s so advanced that we had to come up with an appropriately technical, massively creative name for it: Football Pick’em Picks.

If you learned something from this article, we encourage you to check it out.